[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[Loras]

An Arianne chapter, I'm very excited to see her back.

Can I ask, was this chapter actually called 'Arianne'? Has she had a promotion to named viewpoint?

I'm in the camp that says the Margaery situation hasn't been resolved at this point, I'm expecting this to be very early 'Dance'. What does surprise me is that we didn't get a chapter detailing how JonCon and Maygon took 'Storm's End' when Mace Tyrell had laid siege to it for most of AFFC with no luck. I think this echoes back to the first three books when major battles occurred off-stage.

An interesting possibility would be the Small Council demanding that a Tyrell army goes to deal with the invasion in the South. Even if Mace was trying to keep all of the armies in KL then pressure from the Council and the Storm Lords would make him reconsider. If he kept them all in the city it would be an interesting parallel to Cersei keeping the Redwyne fleet at Dragonstone. I really want Randyll Tarly to be leading this army, I'm loving the idea of Tarly vs. JonCon.

Having a lowered number of Tyrell soldiers in the city could give Cersei the opportunity to abduct Tommen and flee to Casterly Rock. Seeing Mace Tyrell trying to keep court in King's Landing, without anyone noticing Cersei and Tommen were missing would be very interesting. Not to mention the arrival of the Dornish army in KL.

This chapter seems very much like it is setting the scene for the Southern storyline in the 6th book. I'm looking forward to getting my hands on this chapter!

[Davos' Middle Finger]

I would imagine that Mace sent Randyll south to deal with Connington. He would want to stay in KL to personally ensure that the High Septon doesn't fuck with his daughter.

I wonder if the Golden Company elephants have arrived yet. If they have that could give them an edge against the Tyrell forces, since horses that aren't used to the smell of elephants will panic.

[Maia]

At one point Arianne asks someone why her father would inflict Elia on her. The reply was "Vengeance" ;)

Hah! Normally, it is along the lines of "may you have a child exactly like yourself", but Doran's many nieces provided him with a convenient shortcut :). Also, it is a very effective educational tool - to show Arianne the error of her (former?) ways from the outside. Would be interesting if Arianne does a Prince Hal and eventually becomes a competent ruler.

[Clash]

Prediction: They were able to "conquer" Storm's End so easily by actually winning over the garrison diplomatically. Similarly, the Tyrells are approaching with the express purpose to turn themselves over to Baby Aegon, pull their support from the Lannisters, which would be a serious shake-up.

I can't see the garrison of Storms End willingly betraying Stannis to a sellsword company led by a putative Targaryen. Historically, sieges of Storms End have lasted significant lengths of time, so a siege is out of the question in the timeframe. There are very few other possibilities remaining: A subterfuge of some kind, a surprise attack which caught the garrison unawares or some kind of access by the sea route; perhaps by whatever method Davos used to get his onions through during the rebellion.

No matter how it goes down, the FUNNIEST thing in the world would be for this whole Westeros/7-Kingdoms business to be finished up by the time Dany meanders her way back to the homeland (by being united under Aegon, for example)

Nothing a few dragons couldn't deal with ;)

[Vympel]

Agreed. Though the same could be said for Winterfell.

Well yeah, Winterfell goes without saying.

[Wouter]

No matter how it goes down, the FUNNIEST thing in the world would be for this whole Westeros/7-Kingdoms business to be finished up by the time Dany meanders her way back to the homeland (by being united under Aegon, for example)

All 7 kingdoms "finished up"? How is Aegon going to deal with the Others, then?

Because I think one could hardly say the north is "finished up" until he has dealt with Stannis, Starks and the Others.

[Kingslayer]

I think we'll end TWoW with the bulk of Westeros under Targaryen control, excepting the north and the Iron Isles. People forget that the "mummer's dragon" in the vision was surrounded by cheering people.

(btw I'm inclined to think he's genuine. A "mummer" is an actor, so a "mummer's dragon" would be a Targaryen manipulated by an actor, i.e. Varys)

[kg1982]

KG1982;

We don't know what size of Tyrell army is approaching. The Tyrells have 2 very large armies in KL by the end of ADWD (one from Mace, the other lead by Tarly). It could be one of the 2, or a subset of one or both armies. Either way, we shouldn't just assume they left no Tyrell soldiers whatsoever in KL when they marched for the Storm Lands. Presumably, a sizable contingent of soldiers and knights stayed with Margaery to protect her from the Sparrowns and co.

I'm of the belief that Margaery ends up being executed by the Faith for adultery and her brother ends up being executed with her ala Anne Boleyn, I frankly think that the High Sparrow thinks that right is on his side and won't be deterred by an army, but it does prevent the Tyrells from staging a rescue attempt. Diverting the army suggests that that plot point will happen and that there will be fighting in the streets of King's Landing when the Tyrell army doesn't arrive in time to save Margaery.

I think that is what probably breaks the Tyrell siege of Storm's End and King's Landing welcomes Aegon due to the bloodshed in the streets. I expect fakeAegon to become king for a while, but things to start going really badly for him with plagues and famine.

[Whatever]

If Aegon marries Arianne, that is IMO a tip-off that he won't stay King.

why do you think so?

[Black Jack Bulwer]

I wonder if the Golden Company elephants have arrived yet. If they have that could give them an edge against the Tyrell forces, since horses that aren't used to the smell of elephants will panic.

Elephants make me think that MayGon's conquest is being based on the Roman Conquest of Britain.

- Exiled Lord, wanting to come home and get his hands on his birth rite (JonCon / Adminius)

- Elephants

- Overall commander (Aegon / Emperor Claudius) leading the attack personally on the first major fortification the invaders have to take to continue (Storm's End / Camulodonum)

- Peoples swearing voluntary allegiance to invaders (Dorne, Reach lords? / Various British tribes)

It is interesting that MayGon's conquest should be based on the Romans, whilst Aegon's conquest was clearly based on William and the Normans. This is kind of reverse history.

Perhaps intentional in a world where magic is returning, almost as if history is turning back on itself.

(See the arguements about Bran Stark becoming the new Bran the Builder)

It is also interesting that MayGon and Claudius were both the only survivors of family massacres inflicted by supposedly loyal military forces, following the downfall of a mad previous ruler (Aerys II / Caligula).

Both MayGon and Claudius were plucked from obscurity in unlikely circumstances and placed in power by very powerful elements (Varys, Illyrio / Praetorian Guard), who hoped to use them as puppets.

Claudius surprised everybody by proving too shrewd to be a puppet, and it looks like MayGon may be heading in that direction too...

[Clash]

Claudius surprised everybody by proving too shrewd to be a puppet, and it looks like MayGon may be heading in that direction too...

The problem with historical references in novels is that the author gets to change the outcome to suit himself...

[Winterfell is Burning]

Sounds interesting, but this quick conquest of Storm's End seems too easy. GRRM better have a good explanation.

[Calibandar]

So the other information that I have seen Trebla post from the Con is George confirming that the Ice Battle and the Fire Battle were both cut from ADWD. Massive shame of course, but goiod to see it confirmed again that we will definitly see the outcome of Stannis vs Bolton at Winterfell, and of course that we will see the Siege of Meereen. I wonder what role the Volantes will come to play in that siege by the way, but I am getting off topic.

[longlivestark]

I wonder how Aegon and Jon C. will react when/if they learn of Dorans plan to marry Que. to Dany, seeing as they want Aegon to marry Dany.

(It could take awhile before anyone learns of Que. death at the hands of Dany's dragons)

[History of Westeros]

The elephants arrived in aDwD. At the beginning of JC's last chapter they were still missing. But by the time Aegon arrives at Griffins Roost there are a few. (3, I think).

[Eaglewood]

I have to seriously laugh and shake my head at everyone listing what they WANT to happen. Have you people learned nothing from the previous five books? GRRM doesn't care what you want, loves turning traditional fantasy conventions on their head, and believes in heavily foreshadowing (why I love the man as an author).

Do you really believe a young, well-mannered, heroic, handsome, sort of boring prince plucked from obscurity to return and unite his country in it's greatest time of need is where GRRM is going with the story? Especially when we have not heard or met of him in 4 entire books? Believing the word of freaking VARYS?? When we've had clear foreshadowing of a Mummers Dragon? Lord oh lord.

There is 0 to 10% chance Aegon is the real deal, but that's okay because he's surrounded by Jon Con (a GREAT character) and the Golden Company, and it looks like he'll soon meet Arianne who's forming into a very good character, making all the meaty details of this chapter great. So real or not it looks like he'll have a very interesting storyline.

[Urien the Ragged]

Great stuff. I continue to maintain that YG will be sitting on the Iron Throne at the end of TWOW.

i'm thinking he dies. but that's probably just because i'm still all ptsd over the red wedding.

[Urien the Ragged]

Elephants make me think that MayGon's conquest is being based on the Roman Conquest of Britain.

- Exiled Lord, wanting to come home and get his hands on his birth rite (JonCon / Adminius)

- Elephants

- Overall commander (Aegon / Emperor Claudius) leading the attack personally on the first major fortification the invaders have to take to continue (Storm's End / Camulodonum)

- Peoples swearing voluntary allegiance to invaders (Dorne, Reach lords? / Various British tribes)

It is interesting that MayGon's conquest should be based on the Romans, whilst Aegon's conquest was clearly based on William and the Normans. This is kind of reverse history.

Perhaps intentional in a world where magic is returning, almost as if history is turning back on itself.

(See the arguements about Bran Stark becoming the new Bran the Builder)

It is also interesting that MayGon and Claudius were both the only survivors of family massacres inflicted by supposedly loyal military forces, following the downfall of a mad previous ruler (Aerys II / Caligula).

Both MayGon and Claudius were plucked from obscurity in unlikely circumstances and placed in power by very powerful elements (Varys, Illyrio / Praetorian Guard), who hoped to use them as puppets.

Claudius surprised everybody by proving too shrewd to be a puppet, and it looks like MayGon may be heading in that direction too...

i was thinking there's a little Perkin Warbeck in this storyline.

[Calibandar]

Eaglewood

Do you really believe a young, well-mannered, heroic, handsome, sort of boring prince plucked from obscurity to return and unite his country in it's greatest time of need is where GRRM is going with the story? Especially when we have not heard or met of him in 4 entire books? Believing the word of freaking VARYS?? When we've had clear foreshadowing of a Mummers Dragon? Lord oh lord

Yes, Young Griff is not Aegon. The chances of that being the case are far too slim, and the parallels to Perkin Warbeck are far too immense to ignore.

That being said, there is nothing to suggest Young Griff, whoever he really is, is not going to be a strong character in his own right. ADWD leads me to believe more good about him than bad, and that is aside from his elaborate education and very powerful backers.

Since he is the Mummer's dragon, the lie that Dany must slay, he must necessarily be alive when she arrives in Westeros. This is unlikely to happen before the tail end of Winds of Winter, most people seem agree. That means Young Griff, at the very least, is very unlikely to die before the end of the next book, and in any case, introducing such a new and powerful character into the story at this point, will not be done just to have him die soon after.

So this is nothing to do with a young handsome man going heroically on a path of a glory, and that potentially not fitting with what you think GRRM tends to do.It's about analyzing what a storyteller would do at this point with the ingredients he has put in place.

I agree that isn't not easy to predict what GRRM will do, sometimes. At the same time it is also very unlikely that he will introduce Young Griff in the manner and context that he has done, and has him die an early, ignominious death. That's just not going to happen.

[The Lost Lord]

Since he is the Mummer's dragon, the lie that Dany must slay, he must necessarily be alive when she arrives in Westeros. This is unlikely to happen before the tail end of Winds of Winter, most people seem agree. That means Young Griff, at the very least, is very unlikely to die before the end of the next book, and in any case, introducing such a new and powerful character into the story at this point, will not be done just to have him die soon after.

Yes, this is why I think he'll take King's Landing in TWOW. New, fire/blood-improved Dany will return to Westeros and find no Usurper on the Iron Throne but instead her alleged "nephew" -- and then she'll choose war anyway because she doesn't trust the "mummer's dragon."

YG's only plausible purpose in the story is to conflict with Dany. If he dies before Dany invades, his plotline is totally pointless and we've spent hundreds of pages on a dead end. It's far more likely that he'll be extremely successful in TWOW as Dany makes her way over. His absurdly quick conquest of Storm's End backs this up -- gotta move the plot along if he's gonna be in King's Landing by the end of the book.

I have to seriously laugh and shake my head at everyone listing what they WANT to happen. Have you people learned nothing from the previous five books? GRRM doesn't care what you want, loves turning traditional fantasy conventions on their head, and believes in heavily foreshadowing (why I love the man as an author). Do you really believe a young, well-mannered, heroic, handsome, sort of boring prince plucked from obscurity to return and unite his country in it's greatest time of need is where GRRM is going with the story?

I didn't think this was aimed at me, I thought it was aimed at the "true believers" who think Aegon's real, that he might be a dragon rider, that he might sit the Iron Throne at the end of the series -- all ridiculous, IMO. But I would say that "a young, well-mannered, heroic, handsome, sort of boring prince plucked from obscurity to return and unite his country in its greatest time of need"... getting defeated and killed by our main character because he has no dragons... is quite plausibly where GRRM may be going with the story.