[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[longlivestark]

The way I see it playing out with Cersei's prophecy is with Dany being the younger queen. It wouldn't surprise me to see Cersei held up in Maegors holdfast while under seige by Aegon while Dany makes her Westeros appearance by joining the fight and melting it down similiar to Harrenhal. It was a younger and more beautiful queen and while pretty, Marge isn't described as better looking than Cersei while Dany has been mentioned as the most beautiful girl in the world.

I don't see that happening, I can't see Dany joining Aegon's side, her job is to be the slayer of lies, she can't do that being allied to him. Also the beautiful younger queen does more then just take the crown, she takes EVERYTHING Cersei holds dear meaning her crown, Jaime, her children, I can't see Dany showing up in time to do all of this. Also Cersei's death is not death by dragon, its death by being strangled by younger brother.

[Eaglewood]

i really don't see how aegon could be a fake. he has the targaryen features. if he wasn't a targaryen, varys would have gotten extremely lucky with how he turned out in terms of appearance.

I'm not sure if this is serious or not.

There are a LOT of people with Valaryan features out there, even in Westeros (the Driftmark clan and the Daynes). Essos seems to be crawling with them, which makes sense as the Valaryan race wasn't made extinct by the Doom, they just suffered massive population loss. The survivors spread out and married around in Essos. And Jon Con didn't get Aegon until he was a kid, which gave Varys plenty of time to find a nice hair/eye match.

[kg1982]

All in all, Cersei may be self-fulfilling the prophecy by the way she attempts to bring Margaery down. Her fixation on Marge may end up costing her everything; she is lucky enough that Varys murdering Kevan may bring her back in a position of power within the Lannister hierarchy and Ser Robert Strong will let her escape her trial. Still, she is in a bad position as she needs the Tyrell swords to protect Tommen from Aegon yet she wants to remove them from power at the same time

Cersei made Margaery a threat; Margaery wasn't really a threat to Cersei in AFFC. I am of the opinion that Margaery, Olenna, and Garlan were all in the plot to kill Joffrey and Margaery was the one with the poison. However, I see this as a positive thing as Joffrey was a monster and displayed all the traits associated with being a sociopath. It was Margaery defending herself from a potential threat; once that threat was removed she had no reason to harm Tommen or take over for Cersei. I think that she was trying to follow Olenna's advice and get some good PR. The fact that Cersei doesn't get this suggests that Cersei is stupid.

However, Mace leaving Marge unprotected would be wildly out of character and thus bad writing. If she is killed, it may be Varys' doing instead (he seems to be able to assassinate inside the Red Keep almost at will) or the work of the presumably nigh-unstoppable killing machine "Ser Robert Strong". Though Cersei would have to be mad to kill Margaery that way, maybe she is mad enough.

Mace is very dumb. It is clear that the Tyrell women are the brains behind the operation, although I do think that Willas and Garlan both break the trend. Loras is the favorite son and it seems that he takes after Mace in that he walked into Cersei's trap concerning Dragonstone.

If Doran dies, the allegiance of Tyene and Nym would switch to Arianne (who is not only Doran's heir, they are close to her as well), who is also not in league with Varys until further notice. Arianna (and Doran, for that matter) may well chose to forge an alliance with Aegon, but even so they wouldn't exactly be in Varys' camp especially if Aegon is not who Varys says he is (he would be effectively be a con artist toward Dorne).

Once Doran dies and Arianne and the Sand Snakes find out that Quentyn died in Meereen, then I think that they will definitely switch their allegiance to fakeAegon. It seems like Arianne is contemplating it even with Dad still alive and still unaware of Quent's death. She seems like she is willing to use her considerable talents in order to seduce fakeAegon and become queen.

[Eaglewood]

It could well be Margaery is killed (or Tommen, another thing which would mean the end of the Tyrell-Lannister alliance) so Aegon gets a quick win by default - I agree the mummer's drafon will be applauded as shown in the house of the undying (though taking Storm's End is already a measure of success, we will see how far it goes - could go all the way to KL I guess, but it remains to be seen).

However, Mace leaving Marge unprotected would be wildly out of character and thus bad writing. If she is killed, it may be Varys' doing instead (he seems to be able to assassinate inside the Red Keep almost at will) or the work of the presumably nigh-unstoppable killing machine "Ser Robert Strong". Though Cersei would have to be mad to kill Margaery that way, maybe she is mad enough.

Man, just made me think, what if Cersei had Robert Strong do something crazy like kill Mace? Now that would be the jaw dropping sort of crazy-ass twist that would make me forgive GRRM for pages and pages of snow and names with Z in it in aDwD.

[Eaglewood]

The way I see it playing out with Cersei's prophecy is with Dany being the younger queen. It wouldn't surprise me to see Cersei held up in Maegors holdfast while under seige by Aegon while Dany makes her Westeros appearance by joining the fight and melting it down similiar to Harrenhal. It was a younger and more beautiful queen and while pretty, Marge isn't described as better looking than Cersei while Dany has been mentioned as the most beautiful girl in the world.

Everyone seems to be forgetting a crucial element, there is an order to Maggy the Frog's Deux ex Machina prophecy:

A younger more beautiful queen must tear down everything Cersei loves,

THEN

She is strangled to death by a "younger brother."

How can the younger queen, who is probably Dany, do that? Easy. What does Cersei love most in the world? Her children, and power. Which means Dany will both rob of her of her power, and likely kill poor lil Tommen (and maybe Myrcella if she is still around). With two books to go, I don't see either happening in tWoW. Which means at the end of the book, Cersei must still be in power somehow. With other things moving fast, I'm not sure how this will play out.

My best crackpot guess is that with Kevan gone as a stabilizing force, we will have a full-on batshit crazy Cersei back. Times ten, especially after Robert Strong stomps all over the Faith at her trial. She will have Strong murder Tyrell and any of his liege lords around, maybe Rowman with Tarly and Redwyne gone, and Marg will lose that pretty little head of hers. Cersei is deluded into thinking she won.

Then Dany shows up with some dragons.

[Iron Captain]

As others have said, Mace Tyrell isn't the sharpest thorn on the Highgarden rose. As threatened as Cersei feels by Mace's ambitions (and his ambitions are very open/straightforward), it would be in her best interest to leave Mace as the Lord of Highgarden rather than have that pass to the (presumably) much more intelligent Willas.

But we're talking about Cersei here, who has proven to be a terrible Thrones player, and very well may make an idiotic move against Mace.

[Vympel]

It can't happen though, as long as Sansa remains married to Tyrion and getting rid of that will be very difficult until the regime in KL changes to one of LF's liking (not sure if Aegon would be, and I suspect LF is aware of Dany and may wait till her arrival to really play his cards).

The marriage was never consummated though. Its not worth the paper its written on. If its written on paper. Thats why Tywin was so insistent on Tyrion banging Sansa.

Sansa could potentially gain support from (a lot of) the Vale in her own right though, by making common cause with Bronze Yohn (openly as Sansa) and/or by gaining the trust of Sweetrobin, who isn't dead yet and the lawful lord of the Vale until further notice.

True, but little Sweetrobin is a bit of a little weakling / monster for my liking. I hope it doesn't go that way.

[Ashcroft]

It would be interesting if Dany kills Ae

gon believing him a fake, to only go.and learn that he was in fact genuine. That's the sort of story telling I could see Martin going for. Would also be a good way to start Dany's apparent descent into madness.

[The Lost Lord]

at the end of the book, Cersei must still be in power somehow My best crackpot guess is that with Kevan gone as a stabilizing force, we will have a full-on batshit crazy Cersei back. Times ten, especially after Robert Strong stomps all over the Faith at her trial. She will have Strong murder Tyrell and any of his liege lords around, maybe Rowman with Tarly and Redwyne gone, and Marg will lose that pretty little head of hers. Cersei is deluded into thinking she won. Then Dany shows up with some dragons.

But you're skipping the toughest part of the prophecy -- how the heck does Myrcella get crowned with Cersei still in power? The only obvious solution is the seemingly insane prospect of an Aegon-Dorne-Cersei alliance with Aegon marrying Myrcella.

Here's a (crackpot) sequence of events -- Cersei gets acquitted and Marg gets convicted. But the Tyrell army refuses to let Marg be executed, defying the Faith. Cersei sees her opportunity, proclaims that she has seen the light of the Seven and been saved, and aligns Gregor with the Faith Militant against the Tyrells. Open warfare results, King's Landing falls into chaos and Tommen ends up being killed. Eventually, Aegon and Dorne decide to align with Cersei and the Faith Militant against the remaining Tyrells. Cersei and the Faith demand an Aegon-Myrcella wedding to seal the alliance (why the Faith would want this, I have no idea), Dorne is happy with it because they feel they can control her now. The Tyrells are defeated, a peace is signed and Aegon and Myrcella crowned just before Dany arrives.

Huge problems with the theory -- one, why would Nym and Dorne ever be okay aligning with Gregor and Cersei? Two, I've gotta assume the assassination of Cersei's two closest allies in King's Landing will lead to some immediate reaction from her and that she won't sit around and wait meekly for her trial.

[Ky1595]

I'm not sure if this is serious or not.

There are a LOT of people with Valaryan features out there, even in Westeros (the Driftmark clan and the Daynes). Essos seems to be crawling with them, which makes sense as the Valaryan race wasn't made extinct by the Doom, they just suffered massive population loss. The survivors spread out and married around in Essos. And Jon Con didn't get Aegon until he was a kid, which gave Varys plenty of time to find a nice hair/eye match.

My problem with the fake Aegon theory is the entire stereotypical villain monologue that Varys gives during Kevan's death scene. Varys spills his plans to a dying man, giving no indication that his dragon is anything but the real deal. Why would Varys lie to a dying man about Aegon's authenticity? It's understandable that Varys would exaggerate Aegon's talents during this discussion, not having personally raised the boy, but to lie about YG's identity to a guy five minutes from death? Seems silly to me. I think we should take it at face value that Aegon's is the real deal, and interpret "Mummer's dragon" as a reference to Varys' influence over Aegon, not that Aegon is a fake.

[Aelinor Keath]

Yes, and how many of those people with the right coloring have Rhaegar's eyes and Elia's nose? The right coloring is easy, the trick would be finding a boy with the right face. There are alot of people in Westeros that remember what Elia and Rhaegar look like. When they look at Aegon, if they don't see a resemblance to either family, they will start doubting.

There are a LOT of people with Valaryan features out there, even in Westeros (the Driftmark clan and the Daynes). Essos seems to be crawling with them, which makes sense as the Valaryan race wasn't made extinct by the Doom, they just suffered massive population loss. The survivors spread out and married around in Essos. And Jon Con didn't get Aegon until he was a kid, which gave Varys plenty of time to find a nice hair/eye match.

[tze]

But you're skipping the toughest part of the prophecy -- how the heck does Myrcella get crowned with Cersei still in power?

The prophecy says, "Gold shall be their crowns, and gold their shrouds." Remember what tipped everyone off that the children weren't Baratheons? Their "golden crowns"---their blond hair. The prophecy doesn't require that Cersei's children be crowned kings/queens; it can easily be said to have already been fulfilled by the children's golden hair.

Arianne strikes me as being incredibly insecure about Quentyn's theoretical power over her (she wonders here whether she'll have to call Quentyn "King," and she spent most of AFFC assuming Doran meant to have Quentyn usurp her). I can see her trying to get Aegon to marry her, regardless of the fact that it would be political suicide for him, just as a way to one-up Quentyn; she'd be thinking that when Quentyn marries Dany and returns to Westeros, he'll still be subordinate to her, as Aegon comes before Dany in the Targ succession.

Varys spills his plans to a dying man, giving no indication that his dragon is anything but the real deal. Why would Varys lie to a dying man about Aegon's authenticity?

Varys was surrounded by his "little birds," tongueless children who can nevertheless read and write. Remember Wex? The mute Ironborn boy who, via writing, spills the beans about Bran/Rickon to Manderly? Varys wouldn't want ANYONE, especially not one of his little birds, knowing that Aegon was fake, since they could easily let the info slip.

Yes, and how many of those people with the right coloring have Rhaegar's eyes and Elia's nose? The right coloring is easy, the trick would be finding a boy with the right face. There are alot of people in Westeros that remember what Elia and Rhaegar look like. When they look at Aegon, if they don't see a resemblance to either family, they will start doubting.

As so many characters have noted, however, people see what they want to see. Jon Connington wants so desperately to have a chance to redeem himself, he'll see Rhaegar/Elia in Aegon regardless of what's actually there. And remember, Jon is the only person with Aegon (as far as we know) who knew Rhaegar/Elia. Tyrion was too young to have really known Rhaegar or Elia, at least not well. It's entirely possible, from the info we have now, that other noblemen/noblewomen will look at Aegon and say, yes, the coloring is right, but his face looks nothing like his alleged parents.

[Été]

But you're skipping the toughest part of the prophecy -- how the heck does Myrcella get crowned with Cersei still in power? The only obvious solution is the seemingly insane prospect of an Aegon-Dorne-Cersei alliance with Aegon marrying Myrcella.

Or Tommen dies?

It's also possible that for the purposes of prophecy, Arianne's failed conspiracy might count, even though they only called her a queen for all of a few hours. Or that Myrcella and Trystane marry in the near future, so that she's crowned a princess of Dorne.

[The Lost Lord]

The prophecy says, "Gold shall be their crowns, and gold their shrouds." Remember what tipped everyone off that the children weren't Baratheons? Their "golden crowns"---their blond hair. The prophecy doesn't require that Cersei's children be crowned kings/queens; it can easily be said to have already been fulfilled by the children's golden hair.

It's also possible that for the purposes of prophecy, Arianne's failed conspiracy might count, even though they only called her a queen for all of a few hours.

Yup, I am aware of both of these "cop-out" possibilities. But it's 2/3 fulfilled already and now Myrcella is on her way to King's Landing. Also, when Martin cheaps out on his prophecies it's usually in a clever and dramatic way. Myrcella not being crowned, though, is a non-event that can only conclusively happen when Cersei looks at the poor kid's body and thinks, "Wow, I really thought she'd end up crowned, but I guess Maggy just meant she had blonde hair! Who woulda thunk!"

Or Tommen dies?

More plausible, if Nym hands over Myrcella to Cersei and then Tommen bites it, but how would Cersei convince the Tyrells to agree to crown Myrcella? I always assume Nym will retain control of Myrcella for some reason, but I guess there's no good reason to assume that. The problem still exists that Aegon, not a queen (as far as we know), is currently far better-positioned "to cast [Cersei] down and take all she holds dear," than Dany is.

[Angalin]

Oh no, I can't possibly bear any more travelogues. :shocked:

I was thinking about this in context of the ADwD maps, which show much more detail in the Dornish Marches than ever before - including the location of the Tower of Joy. If GRRM read Arianne's second chapter, which was originally intended to go into Dance, did we get that detailed map because in her first chapter she rides past the Tower of Joy instead of up the Boneway? Did those listening get any info on which way she came to Griffin's Roost?

[Cydal]

Does that mean that Margaery can also use Robert Strong to defend herself in trial by combat? that would be the smart thing to do

[menino]

Its one thing to declare the end of a House, another to make it so. House Lannister won't end unless Aegon invades the West and takes Casterly Rock.

Lannister seems to be on its way out no matter what. Jaime cannot have heirs, Tyrion is gone and Cersei's kids are a. illegitimate b. tied to throne or female.

Lancel is the only hope for establishing a cadet branch, but he doesn't seem to be into any of that kind of stuff. It's possible the Rock will pass to the Frey issue of Tywin's sister.

[Faint]

Oddly disorientating the speed of Aegon's story compared to that of Daenerys' own. I'm starting to consider the possibility that Daenerys is coming back to Westeros with only three dragons and Tyrion in tow, leading to a situation where she usurps "Aegon" and takes his army and the benefit of his accomplishments in the process.

[Eaglewood]

My problem with the fake Aegon theory is the entire stereotypical villain monologue that Varys gives during Kevan's death scene. Varys spills his plans to a dying man, giving no indication that his dragon is anything but the real deal. Why would Varys lie to a dying man about Aegon's authenticity? It's understandable that Varys would exaggerate Aegon's talents during this discussion, not having personally raised the boy, but to lie about YG's identity to a guy five minutes from death? Seems silly to me. I think we should take it at face value that Aegon's is the real deal, and interpret "Mummer's dragon" as a reference to Varys' influence over Aegon, not that Aegon is a fake.

I agree the entire speech is a bit stereotypical (no matter how you read it). At least when Littlefinger gave his big diabolical speech to Sansa you could believe he was trying to teach her something in some sick way. That's why I simply don't buy it. I believe less than less of what Varys says, as GRRM has gone out of his way to make the characters true intentions as murky as possible. I just don't see him as some benevolent madman hell bent on saving the realm, particularly with what we know about how he led to it's demise with his influence over King Aerys. And I see GRRM as too good of a writer to bring such a fantasy cliche into the mix at this stage in the game. Something is clearly up.

[Eaglewood]

Lannister seems to be on its way out no matter what. Jaime cannot have heirs, Tyrion is gone and Cersei's kids are a. illegitimate b. tied to throne or female.

Lancel is the only hope for establishing a cadet branch, but he doesn't seem to be into any of that kind of stuff. It's possible the Rock will pass to the Frey issue of Tywin's sister.

Seriously? One of the biggest annoyances of the series is how many bloody Lannisters there are. In the main family alone, outside Tywin's git, you have all of Kevan's children (Lancel, two girls, and the surviving twin), Genna's two grandsons and surviving two songs, Tyrek -- if he's alive somewhere, and Joy Hill. Then you have all of the freaking cousins like Daven, et al. I see Tywin's line ending, but house Lannistar is not going anywhere.