[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[Eaglewood]

IMO, Varys captured Tyrek Lannister on the day of the riots and is withholding him so that he can inherit Casterly Rock at some point, and then be Varys's pawn there.

Agreed. The kid just been mentioned too many times to not pop back into the narrative at some point. I just wonder where poor Tyrek is being hidden.

[Kingslayer]

I just realized how Aegon will get Hightower and other Tyrell bannermen to back him: promise to deal harshly with the ironmen, and do it. As we saw from AFfC, the Iron Throne is roughly as popular in Oldtown as it is in White Harbor. Stupid Mace may soon be a Lord Paramount with no bannermen, a King's Hand with no kingdom.

The Lannisters really screwed themselves in the long run.

[Eaglewood]

I just realized how Aegon will get Hightower and other Tyrell bannermen to back him: promise to deal harshly with the ironmen, and do it. As we saw from AFfC, the Iron Throne is roughly as popular in Oldtown as it is in White Harbor. Stupid Mace may soon be a Lord Paramount with no bannermen, a King's Hand with no kingdom.

The Lannisters really screwed themselves in the long run.

Ah I like that a lot... but then I wouldn't be sure how Euron figures in. The guy is being set up a pretty significant adversary.

[skins7778]

Ten thousand men in the Golden Company. Thirty thousand Dornishmen. Probably a few hundred conscripts each from the smaller castles they've already seized (Griffin's Roost, Greenstone, etc). Maybe five thousand or so from the lands sworn directly to Storm's End.

Add and subtract as desired. :) The X-factor here, of course, is the question of how many lords from the Reach and stormlands will voluntarily switch sides. Probably many; the mummer's dragon was surrounded by cheering crowds.

I forgot about the cheering crowds any chance Connington can gain support from Old Town? I don't remember if they were Targ loyalists or not, but I know they were being harassed by Ironborn and might feel Highgarden and the Tyrells are abandoning them by not cominng to their aid fast enough.

Kingslayer beat me to it.....

If Euron stayed in Westeros I don't doubt he started raiding up the Mander and possibly even Highgarden. If that's the case I'm sure Oldtown is receiving no aid from Highgarden against the Ironborn and would join ConAeg if they helped which would change everything. Not to mention that Tyrell army heading South probably led by Tarly who might jump ship over to Aegon.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Ah I like that a lot... but then I wouldn't be sure how Euron figures in. The guy is being set up a pretty significant adversary.

I think euron will take oldtown because of his books

[Été]

I think euron will take oldtown because of his books

Not if he's going up and down the western seaboard talking about dragons. The maesters would have quite a lot to say about that.

[Jon AS]

I forgot about the cheering crowds any chance Connington can gain support from Old Town? I don't remember if they were Targ loyalists or not, but I know they were being harassed by Ironborn and might feel Highgarden and the Tyrells are abandoning them by not cominng to their aid fast enough.

House Hightower is famously independent and nonconfrontational. They basically submitted to and allied with any foreign invader who looked too powerful to oppose (the Andals, the Gardener kings, Aegon the Conqueror). As a result they are apparently not expected to send their armies when everybody else goes to war. They won't oppose "Aegon", but they won't lend him much support either, I think.

I think euron will take oldtown because of his books

Euron can't take Oldtown. He might be able to launch a successful raid, but there is no way he currently has the forces to capture and hold the second biggest city in Westeros, one protected by an extremely powerful house who have, apparently, not sent any significant number of soldiers to die in the War of Five Kings and even started hiring mercenaries by the end of AFFC.

[Wouter]

Everyone is also forgetting that Garlan is a little busy defending the Reach from the Ironborn so who's to stop Connington from attacking Highgarden if he gets support from Dorne.

My questions for you guys are how big of a force does Aegon/Connington have with and without Dorne/loyal southern bannermen.

At this time, presumably no Dornish support yet (Arianne is there to assess if Dorne wants to support Aegon, or not, the decision is apparently not yet taken). 10000 men in the Golden Company; possibly some smaller lords have joined them but we don't know yet.

As to who is to stop Connington from attacking Highgarden: one Tyrell army is approaching Storm's End and Connington intents to meet that one in the field. Otherwise, Garlan is in the Reach as you say, and Highgarden is one of the places in the Reach under his defence. If a hostile army moves into the Reach, Garlan would presumably concentrate his forces against that army and stop focusing on the ironborn for the time being. Anyway, the Redwyne fleet should about now start to deal with the Ironborn longships which would help Garlan a lot if they are succesful. The ironborn may be largely defeated by the time the Dornish army makes a move against the Reach, should they even plan to do so.

[Wouter]

Anyone going to post a more in-depth chapter summary? Come on, I know some of you took notes.

Trebla has promised to post more once he arrives home.

However, Stego from the "Brotherhood without banners" informed us that "most people don't take 'requests' on their vacation" in regards to asking question from the board to Martin so maybe most present feel that "most people don't write reports on their vacation" either.

Luckily Trebla and KSC did report, which is a very sympathetic move for us not so lucky to meet Martin in person :thumbsup:

I just realized how Aegon will get Hightower and other Tyrell bannermen to back him: promise to deal harshly with the ironmen, and do it. As we saw from AFfC, the Iron Throne is roughly as popular in Oldtown as it is in White Harbor. Stupid Mace may soon be a Lord Paramount with no bannermen, a King's Hand with no kingdom.

How can Aegon "deal harshly" with the Ironborn without ships? And with way less men that Garlan Tyrell has?

Have people forgotten that the Tyrells have pushed the Iron Throne to provide assistance to the Reach and that they have send the only warfleet in Westeros capable of fighting the ironborn (the Redwyne fleet) + Garlan's army to fight them on land and retake the shields once Redwyne has cleared the way? Have people forgotten that Loras stormed Dragonstone the way he did exactly to free the Redwyne fleet from Cersei's demands?

If anything, the Hightowers should be pleased with Tyrell efforts to aid against the ironborn. They may not like Mace's ambition which led to the farce with Cersei in the first place, but it should be clear the Tyrells are now doing everything they can and that is a lot more than Aegon can.

Or do people believe that Aegon only has to wave his hands, or send an elephant or 2 to Oldtown to make the ironborn "go away" just like that? What can he do that Garlan and Redwyne together can't? OTOH, Redwyne can do stuff he cannot: take the fight to the ironborn at sea, counterattack the shields.

[SerFelixCulpa]

House Hightower is famously independent and nonconfrontational. They basically submitted to and allied with any foreign invader who looked too powerful to oppose (the Andals, the Gardener kings, Aegon the Conqueror). As a result they are apparently not expected to send their armies when everybody else goes to war. They won't oppose "Aegon", but they won't lend him much support either, I think.

. . .

Euron can't take Oldtown. He might be able to launch a successful raid, but there is no way he currently has the forces to capture and hold the second biggest city in Westeros, one protected by an extremely powerful house who have, apparently, not sent any significant number of soldiers to die in the War of Five Kings and even started hiring mercenaries by the end of AFFC.

While the Hightowers may well be independent and nonconfrontational, I think this analysis overstates things by quite a lot. First, we know very little or nothing about their interactions with the Andals, the Gardener kings, or Aegon the Conqueror. Particularly as to the latter two, there's no evidence I am aware of either that Aegon ever got to Oldtown, or that House Hightower wasn't well represented at the Field of Fire. Once Aegon had functionally ended House Gardener, it seems House Hightower had little choice but to bend the knee to Aegon or else go the same way. This is even more true if House Hightower suffered significant losses at the Field of Fire. Point being: while the Hightowers may be unusual, unique even, there is no evidence to suggest that just flip over for each invader that comes along. It seems strongly implied as well that Oldtown (and by extension the Hightowers) depend on the Redwyne fleet to defend them from the sea, or at least, they seem to be in pretty bad state without them. I somehow doubt they are provided that kind of protection on an ongoing basis without contributing their share. And of course, as far as loyalty to the realm as a whole, we do know Aerys' Lord Commander of the Kingsguard was a Hightower. This may or may not be a big deal, but it certainly doesn't weigh toward the notion that House Hightower stays out of everything that doesn't happen in Oldtown.

I agree that Euron can't take Oldtown though. In fact, I have for some time been of the opinion that he has no intention of even trying. I think the Iron Fleet's adventures in that part of the world are, from Euron's perspective, a feint. Do damage to Oldtown and the Reach with a minimal investment and try to provoke a "rescue" army being sent there from other theatres of operations so as to weaken their opponents elsewhere. The goal may simply to be able to reave with impunity up and down the coast: or Euron may have another strategic target in mind.

I think there's an additional goal of undercutting and marginalizing Victarion's support amongst the Ironborn: seduce Victarion's captains with easy plunder and their own lordships and holdfasts in the Reach. They get tied down there that way and feel like they owe something to Euron. They'll not stand a chance when a full force is mustered to oppose them, however, and at best they'll take significant losses in having to withdraw. At worst, they'll be annihilated. Euron wins as against Victarion either way.

[Wouter]

I agree that Euron can't take Oldtown though. In fact, I have for some time been of the opinion that he has no intention of even trying. I think the Iron Fleet's adventures in that part of the world are, from Euron's perspective, a feint.

I agree, Euron seems focused on the dragons and the whole Reach campaign seems devised as a way to keep the ironborn busy and happy (with looting etc) while he gets the time to work on his end goal of getting control over the dragons. I also think the campaign will end in disaster for the ironborn, allowing Theon and Asha to return in the frame after the ironborn have had their fill of Euron (with Victarion probably not returning alive from Meereen).

[Alexia]

I thought GRRM said that the Citadel would be taken in TWOW during the Q&A -- did I completely misunderstand something?

[Jon AS]

While the Hightowers may well be independent and nonconfrontational, I think this analysis overstates things by quite a lot. First, we know very little or nothing about their interactions with the Andals, the Gardener kings, or Aegon the Conqueror. Particularly as to the latter two, there's no evidence I am aware of either that Aegon ever got to Oldtown, or that House Hightower wasn't well represented at the Field of Fire.

Most of that is from the AFFC appendix (might be dublicated in the ADWD one, but I don't have that handy). It's true we don't know for sure that they didn't have significant troops at the Field of Fire, but we do know that "they have seldom played a large part in the wars of Westeros".

And of course, as far as loyalty to the realm as a whole, we do know Aerys' Lord Commander of the Kingsguard was a Hightower. This may or may not be a big deal, but it certainly doesn't weigh toward the notion that House Hightower stays out of everything that doesn't happen in Oldtown.

Hightowers have also married into the Targaryen family in the past, but the house as a whole doesn't seem inclined to commit itself in wars when they don't have to. They stayed neutral during the first Blackfyre Rebellion, for example.

[Eaglewood]

All this Hightower talk has me really curious why they have not been more key players in Mace's entourage. Mace's wife is a Hightower, right? And they are probably the richest, or second richest of all his bannermen. So why didn't one of Lord Leyton's numerous sons tag along in the war party? Is there some schism there that we don't know about?

I'd also love more information on Oldtown. How did it become the only true city on the entire continent for a few thousand years? Hopefully Sam will give us plenty of new info on that front in the next book.

[SerFelixCulpa]

Most of that is from the AFFC appendix (might be dublicated in the ADWD one, but I don't have that handy). It's true we don't know for sure that they didn't have significant troops at the Field of Fire, but we do know that "they have seldom played a large part in the wars of Westeros".

Hightowers have also married into the Targaryen family in the past, but the house as a whole doesn't seem inclined to commit itself in wars when they don't have to. They stayed neutral during the first Blackfyre Rebellion, for example.

Good to know, thanks for the citations. Again though, I do not see this as evidence of them being fodder for every conqueror. Fewer assumptions involved in just assuming they contribute whatever the minimum level of troop or other support they can get away with when called on by Highgarden and/or the Iron Throne, and do not like to get involved in civil wars if they can credibly stay out of them. It would be interesting to know what involvement they had at the FoF, and more recently, what their contributions were in Robert's Rebellion and the Greyjoy Rebellion. My feeling is that in the former they probably did hold back as much as possible, and did not in the latter since ironmen reaving the west coast of Westeros strikes them rather close to home.

[Wouter]

I thought GRRM said that the Citadel would be taken in TWOW during the Q&A -- did I completely misunderstand something?

I don't remember reading that in any Q&A - and it would be very surprising for Martin to mention such a plot point if Oldtown is supposed to fall. Maybe you did misunderstand? Can you find or recall the relevant quote?

[Alexia]

I don't remember reading that in any Q&A - and it would be very surprising for Martin to mention such a plot point if Oldtown is supposed to fall. Maybe you did misunderstand? Can you find or recall the relevant quote?

I can't navigate Twitter at all to save my life, so I don't know how to link directly to the tweet, but here you go:

@TashaRobinson Tasha Robinson

Martin just said a certain citadel gets taken in the next book, 'and YOU greedy bastards are probably gonna wanna see that.' #renosf

And I think that this link takes you to her Twitter feed or whatever the thing is called...with the tweet being made on Aug. 18.

[Wouter]

I can't navigate Twitter at all to save my life, so I don't know how to link directly to the tweet, but here you go:

@TashaRobinson Tasha Robinson

Martin just said a certain citadel gets taken in the next book, 'and YOU greedy bastards are probably gonna wanna see that.' #renosf

And I think that this link takes you to her Twitter feed or whatever the thing is called...with the tweet being made on Aug. 18.

She means Storm' End. A "citadel" as in a fortress, not THE citadel in Oldtown.

[Vympel]

Ten thousand men in the Golden Company. Thirty thousand Dornishmen

I thought it was 50,000 spears in Dorne?

[longlivestark]

I thought it was 50,000 spears in Dorne?

That number is inflated, Doran admits to Arienne that Dorne is not as powerful as it claims to be and Doran would no doubt know better then Quentyn.