[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

[Fire Eater]

You're right about Mace thats true, and I did think we'd see Cersei rise again before she fell for good, but shit will definitely get crazy if Cersei tries to do anything to Margery, I just can't see Mace doing nothing .The High Septon also seems to be more on the Tyrells side than hers, if he's not entirely Varys puppet that is. Mace got him to release her without a walk of shame, I had assumed it was under threat of arms.

The High Septon isn't on anyone's side. Mace didn't get Margaery and her friends out; Randyll Tarly did by swearing a holy oath to bring them back for trial, and the HS himself admitted the case was weak. Mace has no clue to what is really going on.

Mace will be losing some of his bannermen soon, starting with Lord Titus Peake of Starpike, and other former Blackfyre supporters.

Edited August 15, 2012 by Fire Eater

[the Scorpion Knight]

The High Septon isn't on anyone's side. Mace didn't get Margaery and her friends out, Randyll Tarly did by swearing a holy oath to bring them back for trial, and the HS himself admitted the case was weak. Mace has no clue to what is really going on.

Mace will be losing some of his bannermen soon, starting with Lord Titus Peake of Starpike, and other former Blackfyre supporters.

like I said mace is saved by his own stupidity

And the blackfyre supporters are IMHO only the tip of the ice berg.

randyl might will defect to Aegon and another part of the reach will fall to Euron after he takes Old town

[WithPointyEnd]

There are many unknown factors in this upcoming battle between Aegon and Tyrells.First,whose side will the houses sworn to Storm's End take?Main strength of Stormlands was broken in Blackwater and some of their strength must be in the North with Stannis but remainder is also important.Connington has friends in Stormlands,but he was gone from Westeros for years.How many men will Tyrells bring,how many bannerman of the Reach may/will switch sides?If Dorne comes to their aid,when?After Kevan's death I don't predict another great army from the Rock to come south but who knows?

In my opinion taking SE is one thing,but for Connington and Aegon to prove themselves it's not enough.And they don't have enough strength to defeat the Tyrells in the field in the short run.So If I were Connington I will gather my forces at SE and wait for them.If it is the most formidable castle in Westeros,I'd let them come.Mace may be fool enough for a direct attack because things are really getting complicated in KL.Also there are still swords and elephants crossing the sea for Aegon.Mace might become like Jamie in Riverrun if these forces can flank them.

[Fire Eater]

There are many unknown factors in this upcoming battle between Aegon and Tyrells.First,whose side will the houses sworn to Storm's End take?Main strength of Stormlands was broken in Blackwater and some of their strength must be in the North with Stannis but remainder is also important.Connington has friends in Stormlands,but he was gone from Westeros for years.How many men will Tyrells bring,how many bannerman of the Reach may/will switch sides?If Dorne comes to their aid,when?After Kevan's death I don't predict another great army from the Rock to come south but who knows?

In my opinion taking SE is one thing,but for Connington and Aegon to prove themselves it's not enough.And they don't have enough strength to defeat the Tyrells in the field in the short run.So If I were Connington I will gather my forces at SE and wait for them.If it is the most formidable castle in Westeros,I'd let them come.Mace may be fool enough for a direct attack because things are really getting complicated in KL.Also there are still swords and elephants crossing the sea for Aegon.Mace might become like Jamie in Riverrun if these forces can flank them.

Connington is going out to meet them we've heard, and he knows where they're headed, SE, and they'll be taking the Kingsroad.

I think Connington's battle with the Tyrell force marching towards Storm's End is going to resemble Hannibal's victory at the Battle of Lake Trasimene. Connington is going to have his men waiting in the hills concealed by the trees somewhere along the Kingsroad next to a body of water; an unheard of lake or the Wendwater River. He then ambushes the Tyrell force in a surprise attack; he attacks from three sides, blocking off an escape route and pushes them into the water.

Finally, to complete the reference, Hannibal had elephants and Connington has elephants.

Edited August 15, 2012 by Fire Eater

[WithPointyEnd]

Cool.That might actually work,if Tyrell commander and his vanguard is stupid enough.Do we know who is leading the Tyrell army?

[Blackfish17]

You're right about Mace thats true, and I did think we'd see Cersei rise again before she fell for good, but shit will definitely get crazy if Cersei tries to do anything to Margery, I just can't see Mace doing nothing .The High Septon also seems to be more on the Tyrells side than hers, if he's not entirely Varys puppet that is. Mace got him to release her without a walk of shame, I had assumed it was under threat of arms.

Indeed, Margaery did not suffered the Cersei's humilliation. But I think it was because of Randyll Tarly's arrival at King's Landing, I mean, we all know how much fear and respect many noblemen have for the Lord of Horn Hill. Mace Tyrell may not be the brightest, but he definitely loves his family, and with Kevan dead and no honorable Lannister (if there was ever such) to guarantee his daughter's safety, he might recall her to Highgarden or with his army, and send her away from Cersei. With Cersei in power, the Lannisters will go into utter decline! So House Tyrell might rose once more but this time, at the side of Aegon VI Targaryen.

And concerning Tommen, he is a child, his marriage can be annuled anyway. If he is alive or not is a minor factor, we know that Cersei and after her Kevan were the ones who truly controlled the realm. Now we must remember that a hundred swords from Highgarden are the new reinforcements of the City Watch of King's Landing. Could it be that Aegon might take the capital aided by those swords sworn to the Tyrells?

[WithPointyEnd]

Why would Tyrells want a Targ king?They would never have the control and the influence on the realm like the current situation. Tommen is on the throne,Margary is by his side and Cersei is disgraced and Kevan is dead.

Also Pycelle is dead so there's literally no one on the small council for Lannisters.Kingslayer is away from KL and Cersei is disgraced,I can even say Lannister don't really hold the throne now.

[InnocuousOldBear]

Perhaps the Tyrells and Martells will both put their differences aside and join up with Aegon and Connington, that leaves only the spent Lannister forces backing up Tommen's reign, with the death of Kevan house Lannister is good as done. We don't know if the Vale will join in the last minute, but with the riverlands in devestation, with Stannis and Bolton duking it out in the North, it seems the Targaryen dynasty is back.

[eRome]

It should be pointed put that Mace Tyrell has failed to take Storm's End twice already. Will the third time be a charm? I think not.

[GoldenVale]

We know that Storm's End is a legendary castle that has withstood all sieges. Stannis himself withstood a yearlong siege there.

When Stannis left Storm's End he left Gilbert Farring in charge of it. While we pretty much know nothing about him we do know that Stannis is a capable commander who wouldn't leave just anyone in charge and we know the Farrings are pretty much Stannis loyalists through and through (Stannis has a Farring squire , Godry Farring who we all know is with Stannis and one of the "queens men"). The fact that he was there before Blackwater and stayed there as one of Stannis' men after Stannis' defeat there unlike others means that he probably isn't gonna betray Stannis.

We know that Mathis Rowan is the Tyrell man in charge of the siege. He's followed Mace Tyrell's everyone decision loyally throughout ASOIAF and he was described by Kevan Lannister as being "sensible" (And let's not forget that Kevan thought well enough of him to suggest that he be Hand).

It's safe to say that Connington didn't take Storm's End through alliances with either of thee men. I believe the theory of him defeating Rowan under the guise of being Stannis' men has purchase here. And let's not forget that Elwood Meadows is still second-in-command at Storm's End. If I remember correctly he was second-in-command under Cortnay Penrose and was basically the reason Stannis got Storm's End (his men who knew Meadows suggested that if Penrose was killed Meadows would immediately surrender, which of course he did). Maybe Meadows had a role to play in the whole thing.

It will be interesting to see what happens now that Connington has SE. Arianne going there seems like a bad idea to me. While she may learn more about Jon and YG she's still taking a risk seeing as a Tyrell force(led by Tarly?) is on it's way there making a large battle or at least another siege inevitable and though she might leave before then it's still a risk to take .

She also can't promise them anything. Doran has the final say and even if Connington wants a Martell alliance which I suspect he will, she'd be smart to say no or at least take it back to her father. They have no way of knowing if YG really is the real Aegon and either way we know that Nym and Tyene are already on their way to KL. It would leave both of them trapped in KL if it was found out that the Martells have gone to the side of YG. Plus there's the that fact (if te account of the chapter can be trusted) that Arianne herself said that Dany has a better chance than Aegon (no one in Dorne knows about Quent yet I'm assuming) so forming an alliance without her father's say so is also out. Plus she was already doubting Connington on the way there (though maybe this changes when she hears of Storm's End). I think her going to Storm's End shows us that she isn't going to be as compliant as she promised her dad.

I'm not sure what Connington plans to do now that he has Storm's End. Though I'm sure he has an idea of who in Westeros will join Aegon's cause he can't expect to get into any major actions at half strength so early in the game. Aside from knowing who was pro-targaryian in his time and his hopes for a Dorne team up I don't see him having any friends in Westeros.

I'm getting my info about this chapter from here: http://itsinthetrees.tumblr.com/post/9110146147/twow-arianne-ii-synopsis

Side notes:

- Does the argument between her and Eliara about who is the better hostage mean that they plan on leaving one of them behind with Connington?

- Does anyone else get their interest piqued at Arianne's thoughts about Quentyn? They are brother and sister. Her frank comments on his appearance and her disdain at thinking he might be a king suggest to me that they weren't very close. Not very important but it interest me nonetheless.

Sorry if this post is too long.

[Fire Eater]

Side notes:

- Does the argument between her and Eliara about who is the better hostage mean that they plan on leaving one of them behind with Connington?

- Does anyone else get their interest piqued at Arianne's thoughts about Quentyn? They are brother and sister. Her frank comments on his appearance and her disdain at thinking he might be a king suggest to me that they weren't very close. Not very important but it interest me nonetheless.

1. Nice catch, one of them probably will be left behind as a hostage with Connington.

2. Arianne hasn't seen Quentyn for ten years since she was thirteen and he was eight. I agree that they probably weren't close, even before they were separated.

[Where Boars Glow]

Very, very interesting that Arianne sees weirwoods in the Rainwood. I thought there weren't supposed to be any weirwoods growing "wild" in the forests of the South? We know a couple of ancient southern Houses still have a weirwood in their godswoods, but I thought that those, the weirwood at the Ravenry of the Citadel, and the Isle of Faces were supposed to be the only weirwoods left south of the Neck?

Were we just never told that the Rainwood has surviving weirwood trees? Or is it possible that new weirwood trees have begun sprouting in the south?

Perhap because of the caves this was also a location special to the children and they were able to protect it in some way?

[Nordling]

Cool.That might actually work,if Tyrell commander and his vanguard is stupid enough.Do we know who is leading the Tyrell army?

Randyll Tarly is in Duskendale. He's a formidable commander and close-by to KL so I would not be suprised if Mace gave him the command. But with Queen of Thorns in Highgarden, I don't think anyone's going to be telling Mace what to do; he might as well just try leading the army on his own, hoping to cover himself in glory, as he's a stupid as all the male Tyrells

[Fire Eater]

Randyll Tarly is in Duskendale. He's a formidable commander and close-by to KL so I would not be suprised if Mace gave him the command. But with Queen of Thorns in Highgarden, I don't think anyone's going to be telling Mace what to do; he might as well just try leading the army on his own, hoping to cover himself in glory, as he's a stupid as all the male Tyrells

Tarly was at the small council in KL in ADwD Epilogue, and he managed to release Margaery and her entourage from Baelor's Sept.

[Gonzalo]

We know that Storm's End is a legendary castle that has withstood all sieges. Stannis himself withstood a yearlong siege there.

When Stannis left Storm's End he left Gilbert Farring in charge of it. While we pretty much know nothing about him we do know that Stannis is a capable commander who wouldn't leave just anyone in charge and we know the Farrings are pretty much Stannis loyalists through and through (Stannis has a Farring squire , Godry Farring who we all know is with Stannis and one of the "queens men"). The fact that he was there before Blackwater and stayed there as one of Stannis' men after Stannis' defeat there unlike others means that he probably isn't gonna betray Stannis.

Godry Farring is not Stannis squire. Its Bryen Farring, and he's dead. Ser Godry is a knight and a Queen's Man

[sertravisredbeard]

IMO what made the Lannister incest really unacceptable was the treason commited by the queen and a kingsguard...

And that they were brother and sister, not cousins.

[jsw2289]

does anyone know of a more detailed summery in regards to the convo between Lysono Maar(?) and Arianne??

[Gorubahn]

Storm's End is supposed to be the most impregnable fortification on the continent of Westeros and this kid just waltzes along and seizes it in a couple of days, if not less time? Total crap. Poor Stannis. But, I guess if it gets Cersei's head that much closer to the end of a spike, so much the better...

[GoldenVale]

does anyone know of a more detailed summery in regards to the convo between Lysono Maar(?) and Arianne??

There isn't really any word for word or detailed summary. At least none that I can find. From what I understand she and Lysono mostly debate "Aegon vs Dany", as in debating which of the two are more likely to garner support/lead/win the iron throne, with Lysono arguing for Aegon and Arianne arguing fro Dany of course.

From the summary that I read:

'Golden Company spymaster Lysono Maar meets the party and begins to lead them. Arianne does not care for him, and describes him as looking like a Targaryen. Lysono and Arianne debate Aegon vs. Dany. Lysono says that Aegon has Dornish blood, to which Arianne replies that so does Daenerys. He then proclaims that Aegon is the Dragon, to which Arianne replies that Daenerys has three. Along the way Arianne contemplates whether Connington is worthy of Dorne’s assistance; she believes he will need the Dornishmen to take King’s Landing.'

[LordNedStark]

As I've suggested before I have a suspicion that a mummers's dragon (a real one) may be involved.