[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Just now, messem said:

Magali Villeneuve

Many thanks.

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Liver and Onions said:

I'm looking forward to Arianne meeting up with JonCon, as well as her reaction when she finds out what became of Quentyn.

It should take quite some time until the Quentyn story reaches Westeros. Doran has spies and contacts in Lys and elsewhere, but it takes time for such news to travel. And we have to keep in mind that a lot of stuff happened in Meereen and the people there are not inclined to be very interested in Quentyn or his demise - assuming they learned that he is dead yet. One assumes Barristan didn't announce to the public how and why the dragons were loosed.

Events leading to inevitable alliance between Dorne and Aegon go like that:

1. Whatever positive first impression Arianne has of Aegon.

2. Aegon's success in the coming battle against the Tyrells as well as his success in taking Storm's End (once the details are revealed to Arianne and the reader - George has confirmed long ago that the Storm's End battle is going to be covered in another chapter, most likely the first Jon Connington chapter of TWoW).

3. The news about the events in Daznak's Pit. Those will spread quickly and travel fast considering Daenerys' importance to the political situation in the region. Even more so, because the slavers will want to spread that tale. And it will be unambiguously about Daenerys Targaryen's gruesome death through her own dragon not a version that makes it appear likely that she survived and might return. Even if Doran receives a report suggesting that Dany could have survived/making it clear that he ultimate fate is unclear, he most likely will deduce that her movement is going to crumble/rip itself apart and she might not have any men left once she returns to Slaver's Bay.

4. Even more importantly, the story about Daenerys Targaryen's alleged death in Daznak's Pit will include the small but very important detail about her recent marriage to one Hizdahr zo Loraq, hammering home the fact that nothing is going to come out of the Quentyn plan as well as leading to the not unreasonably conclusion that Daenerys I intended to settle in Slaver's Bay as a conqueror-queen and had no intention to ever travel to distant Westeros. Perhaps those news will even include the story of Quentyn's arrival at Meereen and Dany spurning him.

Those points will force Dorne into bed with Prince Aegon and the Golden Company, even if they believe/realize/know that he is not Rhaegar's son. Revenge and power with the help of a fake Targaryen is much better than nothing with the non-existing help of a real Targaryen.

The news about Quentyn's death and the way he died will later be a very important reason for the enmity between Dorne/Aegon and Daenerys. But that is not exactly going to be an issue in the immediate future.

@Ibbison from Ibben

I don't think the captains of the Golden Company knew anything about Aegon's real identity if he isn't Rhaegar's son. It would be stupid to tell them anything. Maar might know something if he is Varys/Illyrio's confidant and agent, but that remains to be seen. But I see no reason for him to tell the truth about having seen one male Targaryen even if that's Viserys (and he knows Aegon isn't a Targaryen). The man wants that Arianne believes Aegon is her first cousin so he is going to tell her that Aegon is a Targaryen/Rhaegar's son.

We can safely assume that Randyll Tarly is not particularly devout and doesn't give a damn about that 'holy oath' he swore to the High Septon. But Tarly might have sense enough to not unduly provoke the High Septon - which actually would mean that Aegon had a harder time taking KL under his command than if it is Mace in charge of the city near the end.

@LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse

I certainly can see Mace scrapping the Margaery trial now that Kevan is no longer pushing him. In fact, he might even decide to not allow Cersei her trial-by-combat. That's what I would do. Accuse her of the murder of the Lord Regent and the Grand Maester and conduct a trial against her on the basis of that. A trial which - as I'd claim - takes precedence over the Faith trial and will conducted by the Iron Throne. That way Mace could rid himself of Cersei for good without involving the Faith into the whole thing at all.

However, I'm not sure Mace is as stupid or vainglorious enough to insist on marching against Aegon personally instead of sending Tarly and remaining back in the Red Keep to keep the Iron Throne warm and the city under Tyrell control.

My personal take on Randyll Tarly is that eventually there must be some sort of confrontation between him and Sam. Considering that Samwell is likely to end up in team Daenerys considering his knowledge about the Others and other things I'd not be surprised if Randyll eventually ended up in team Aegon. But Sam going to court eventually under Aegon could be interesting, too. The boy might not be the prophesied savior but if he takes the Iron Throne Sam and Sarella most likely would feel obliged to inform him on the real danger threatening the Realm.

[Rob Storm]

I am pretty convinced that Margery has already been found innocent as Brynden Bfish and other have suggested.  There was no real evidence against her after the Kettleblack interrogation.

I think Elia has some sort or mission given to her by Doran, much like her other sisters.  Arianne could not figure out why her father had given her Elia for this quest.  It seems odd that Doran would unnecessarily endanger a young niece if not with a plan.  Problem is I don't know what this plan could be.

Does anyone else think that had the crew ventured a bit deeper down into the cave they may have found a room full of sleeping children??  They may be extinct(or sleeping deeply down in some white roots) in the south, and the cave may have been used too commonly by travelers between Mistwood/Griffs Roost but it just seems like those caves go much much deeper than anyone would dare travel.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Ibbison from Ibben

I don't think the captains of the Golden Company knew anything about Aegon's real identity if he isn't Rhaegar's son.

Assuming the theory is true, Toyne knew, of course. Strickland must know. Homeless Harry isn't the greatest leader in GC history. In order to get full cooperation, he might have been forced to tell some or all of his captains. Especially the intel specialist.

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We can safely assume that Randyll Tarly is not particularly devout and doesn't give a damn about that 'holy oath' he swore to the High Septon. 

Frankly, I don't see any support for that assumption. Tarly certainly holds the current HS in contempt, but that seems to stem from disdain for his social status. We have no way to know just how important keeping a holy oath is to Tarly.

[The Old Tongue]

10 hours ago, Ser Quork said:

I enjoyed it.  I thought the description of the greenery in the rain very evocative: I could almost smell it.  I'm intrigued by the cave of faces and wonder if that will have further significance.

I've noticed a trend of GRRM releasing some sample chapters before an upcoming GoT episode borrows from it. for instance: both TWOW chapters for Arya have had the payoffs in the show (albeit with different targets).

Perhaps something concerning these caves will show up in an upcoming Bran scene?

[messem]

3 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Frankly, I don't see any support for that assumption. Tarly certainly holds the current HS in contempt, but that seems to stem from disdain for his social status. We have no way to know just how important keeping a holy oath is to Tarly.

Well, we know he isn't shy of threatening the life of his own son. As character evidence goes ....

[sifth]

2 hours ago, rondo has three heads said:

I hate to be a downer -- I love Arianne and don't mind descriptions of lush forests -- but this is a lot of words amounting to Arianne still traveling to see Aegon. Nothing else. Just like Arianne I. siiigh

Remember when this kind of crap was skipped over in the first 3 books.

 

Better days, better days, lol

[Ibbison from Ibben]

4 minutes ago, messem said:

Well, we know he isn't shy of threatening the life of his own son. As character evidence goes ....

A good point, but he made that threat to Sam in private. He made his oath to the HS in public. He might feel compelled to keep it just for PR reasons.

[aryagonnakill#2]

When did Lysono Marr become the Golden Companies spy master?  Viserys met with the GC, and Marr claims to have only met 1 Targaryen male.

[Lady Lyanna Mormont]

7 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

When did Lysono Marr become the Golden Companies spy master?  Viserys met with the GC, and Marr claims to have only met 1 Targaryen male.

I don't remember Viserys meeting the GC. Maybe Lysono wasn't part of the meeting? Or maybe... he's implying fAegon?

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Assuming the theory is true, Toyne knew, of course. Strickland must know. Homeless Harry isn't the greatest leader in GC history. In order to get full cooperation, he might have been forced to tell some or all of his captains. Especially the intel specialist.

Frankly, I don't see any support for that assumption. Tarly certainly holds the current HS in contempt, but that seems to stem from disdain for his social status. We have no way to know just how important keeping a holy oath is to Tarly.

Toyne may have known. But Toyne is dead. And not necessarily of natural causes (or death in battle, a sort of natural cause of death for a sellsword captain).

I see no signs that Strickland knows who Aegon actually is. There are hints that he doesn't really believe the story that he is Rhaegar Targaryen's son (insisting that they need Dany to vouch for him suggests as much) but that's not the same as believing/knowing he is a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre (or perhaps even Daemon Blackfyre and Bittersteel).

We don't know when exactly Strickland was told about the pact with Illyrio but all he needed to know until he was contacted by Illyrio presumably and told to meet Jon Connington at Volantis there was no reason to give him any details. Strickland himself distances him from this pact, pointing out that he had nothing to do with it and was only honoring an arrangement made by Myles Toyne.

In light of the fact that Jon Connington does not - and presumably must not - know that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son it would be very dangerous to tell anyone in the Golden Company the truth. People talk, after all. And they behave differently if they are privy to things others aren't. Any captain/man in the Golden Company knowing how they have fooled Rhaegar Targaryen's friend Jon Connington into raising Aegon under false pretenses would face great difficulty concealing that knowledge. Connington should reasonably be surrounded by a lot of faces smiling at him the way Theon Greyjoy used to smile...

As to Randyll Tarly:

He makes it clear to the Small Council that he doesn't want them to go along with Margaery's Faith trial. That entails that he would not hand Margaery over to the High Septon for such a trial if King Tommen's Small Council made the decision to cancel that trial. Which would be contrary to his 'holy oath'. Tarly most certainly would not urge/advisers his peers against the sparrow trial and then also insist on keeping his holy oath he as sworn to the High Sparrow. That would be contradictory behavior.

And Tarly is generally a pretty decent piece of shit. Not just towards Samwell but to other kin as well. He put down a lot of Florent levies sworn to his own father-in-law in Renly's camp, and he also had a another kinsman of his wife, Erren Florent, arrested (Selyse's brother who is still a captive at Highgarden).

To everyone:

No ideas/thoughts on the Lady Nym/Tyene/Myrcella matter? Are they going to slip past the Golden Company or will Arianne meet them as 'guests' in Storm's End. They are taking the Boneway and the Kingsroad which means they are going to pass Storm's End directly. And nothing suggests that they were told about the Golden Company invasion in time.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

54 minutes ago, Notone said:

This romance won't/can't happen.

Jon Connington wants and needs to marry his paper dragon to Dany. And he hopes offering his scaled hand in marriage to Dorne will do the trick (check his chapter in ADWD). And "Aegon" has also set his mind on marrying Dany.

Jon and Aegon might want to marry him to Dany, but things rarely happen as people expect them in ASOIAF.

 

[JonCon's Red Beard]

There are endless descriptions of food and plants in the first books  

[aryagonnakill#2]

30 minutes ago, White lilly said:

I don't remember Viserys meeting the GC. Maybe Lysono wasn't part of the meeting? Or maybe... he's implying fAegon?

He probably does mean Aegon but if he was at the meting with Viserys that statement would actually be a big deal.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Well he's giving it away for free, it's not gonna have anything too consequential in it

[BlueNightzx]

I think its very obvious that Doran sending Elia with Arianne, its him grooming her for power, a mirror for her to see how stupid and impulsive she was, a kid, kissing lowborn men, putting herself in danger and lacking sense, and we see that its working, Arianne is indeed more responsible and mature, and herself is aware of that

Edited May 11, 2016 by BlueNightzx

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Still, there's a lot of interesting stuff there. Arianne is thinking a lot about her brother, trying to get used to the idea of not being jealous of him, and she doesn't seem to be doing a great job. I remember somebody writing about Arianne I that she kind of protesteth too much that she loves him and wants him to succeed, and I think there's more of that in this chapter.

Also, Daemon Sand's a bit shifty, and Elia Sand a bit too volatile. Is Doran once again up to something super convoluted, as some theories would attest? Or is he just a bit shit at espionage?

And was it wise of Arianne to be seen by Lady Mertyn? What if those sons of hers retake Mistwood? Whose side are they on now?

[Hos the Hostage]

@Lord Varys @Ibbison from Ibben Randyll sought the help of some warlocks from Qarth and made Sam bathe in blood to make him braver. Not the sign of a devout follower of Seven. Sam tells that House Tarly has been worshiping the Seven for thousands of years, but Randyll Tarly, like Stannis and Tywin, may care only to do what is needed, and not worry about the Seven.

[Hos the Hostage]

6 minutes ago, BlueNightzx said:

I think its very obvious that Doran sending Elia with Arianne, its him grooming her for power, a mirror for her to see how stupid and impulsive she was, a kid, kissing lowborn men, putting herself in danger and lacking sense, and we see that its working, Arianne is indeed more responsible and mature, and herself is aware of that

This. Also, I don't see how Doran would trust Elia with any responsibilty, from what we have seen of Elia so far.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

There are two Arianne threads, it's confusing...