[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

[Lost Melnibonean]

On coordinating with Mercy and the Epilogue to Dance...

Before Harys is to go to Braavos he is to treat with Myrish bankers and Pentoshi magisters...

Quote

"Aye, if we had gold," Ser Harys Swyft said. "Alas, my lords, our vaults contain only rats and roaches. I have written again to the Myrish bankers. If they will agree to make good the crown's debt to the Braavosi and extend us a new loan, mayhaps we will not have to raise the taxes. Else-wise"

 

"The magisters of Pentos have been known to lend money as well," said Ser Kevan. "Try them." The Pentoshi were even less like to be of help than the Myrish money changers, but the effort must be made. Unless a new source of coin could be found, or the Iron Bank persuaded to relent, he would have no choice but to pay the crown's debts with Lannister gold. He dare not resort to new taxes, not with the Seven Kingdoms crawling with rebellion. Half the lords in the realm could not tell taxation from tyranny, and would bolt to the nearest usurper in a heartbeat if it would save them a clipped copper. "If that fails, you may well need to go to Braavos, to treat with the Iron Bank yourself."

Epilogue, Dance

But he should have been prepared to leave as soon as he was rejected or was unable to reach satisfactory terms...

Quote

"I put no faith in these Myrish bankers," Ser Kevan told his good-father. "You had best prepare to go to Braavos."

Epilogue, Dance

But apparently before that was to happen, Cersei's trial was set to take place within five days...

 

Quote

"Mayhaps we can persuade our Dornish friends to deal with Lord Connington," Ser Harys Swyft said with an irritating titter. "That would save a deal of blood and trouble."

 

"It would," Ser Kevan said wearily. Time to put an end to this.

 

"Thank you, my lords. Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei's trial."

 

"As you say. May the Warrior lend strength to Ser Robert's arms."

 

The words were grudging, the dip of the chin Mace Tyrell gave the Lord Regent the most cursory of bows. But it was something, and for that much Ser Kevan Lannister was grateful.

Epilogue, Dance

My assumption is that Cersei won her trial (all parties--Tyrell, Lannisters & the Faith--want her to win) and then Harys departs.

Since we see Mace’s army is marching, I am assuming  that Margaery won her's too. 

Edited May 13, 2016 by Lost Melnibonean

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, RoamingRonin said:

The rumor about Jon raping Red Ronnet's sister and killed his brother is a lie, right? The rape most certainly didn't happen and I dont recall Jon saying he lost a relative in the fighting 

If I know our man JonCon, and I believe I do, then the rumour mongers got it backwards!

[Hos the Hostage]

2 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

I wonder how the fact that the Tyrell army is marching ties into the Mercy chapter and the whole "the queen will have our heads" chronologically. From what it seems to me at least Arianne II seems to take place after Kevan and Pycelle's murder as well as both queens' trials and possibly concurrent with the Mercy chapter.

It is possible that Harys Swyft left shortly after Kevan's death. There is no reason for Cersei to stop them from following Kevan's orders to negotiate with Braavos. I'm sure the queen in question in Cersei, because Margaery does not have a reputation for asking for people's heads be chopped off. As Harys and his soldiers saw it, there was going to be a trial by combat where Cersei's champion is the (undead) Ser Robert Strong, who looks more invincible than (alive) Gregor Clegane. Naturally, they assume that faith's champion will lose and the queen will be waiting for them in KL.

Edited May 13, 2016 by Hos the Hostage

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Hos the Hostage said:

It is possible that Harys Swyft left shortly after Kevan's death. There is no reason for Cersei to stop them from following Kevan's orders to negotiate with Braavos. I'm sure the queen in question in Cersei, because Margaery does not have a reputation for asking for people's heads be chopped off. As Harys and his soldiers saw it, there was going to be a trial by combat where Cersei's champion is the (undead) Ser Robert Strong, who looks more invincible than (alive) Gregor Clegane. Naturally, they assumes that faith's champion will lose and the queen will be waiting for them in KL.

Cersei would never be in charge, though, nor wield the authority to chop anyone's head off. This chapter is not going to show up in TWoW in the version we have read.

[chrisdaw]

Cersei will rule after she wins her trial.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

On coordinating with Mercy and the Epilogue to Dance...

Before Harys is to go to Braavos he is to treat with Myrish bankers and Pentoshi magisters...

Epilogue, Dance

But he should have been prepared to leave as soon as he was rejected or was unable to reach satisfactory terms...

Epilogue, Dance

But apparently before that was to happen, Cersei's trial was set to take place within five days...

 

Epilogue, Dance

My assumption is that Cersei won her trial (all parties--Tyrell, Lannisters & the Faith--want her to win) and then Harys departs.

Since we see Mace’s army is marching, I am assuming  that Marwan hers too. 

I don´t see the point in having two trials in which both Cersei and Marg end up being innocent. Since we can all agree Cersei will win hers with Ser Robert Strong, then it makes sense to have Marg lose hers (besides she is pretty much asoiafs Anne Boleyn). I also think all the clues and hits point to that direction.

 

1) The HS says the evidence is weak (which makes me think it will probably be the other way)

 

2) Her hymen is broken

 

3) Everybody heard Pycelle declare that Marg asked him for the moon tea, conveniently for the tyrells he and Kevan (the regent) end up murdered, in order for Mace to take over. People will think the tyrells had them killed.

 

4) Qyburn holds all the accusers, and we have seen how that man works his miracles (horrors).. after all the blue bard keeps singing the song he and Cersei taught him. That means by the time the trial is conducted, they will all confess.

 

5) One of them is actually an exile price from the summer islands. this is a trial conducted by the faith of the seven, and the summer islanders pretty much worship gods of sex. he can do some real damage to the queen.

 

6) Varys want her to be guilty, and that guy can fabricate evidence. as we saw in Tyrions trial.

 

7) the HS one of the likely judges, is a misogynist.

 

8) Tyene sand could be another

 

9) probably a Septa (if she is the one that takes care of cersei, she could sway her) could be another

 

10) Cersei and Taena conspire to have one of Margs cousins confess, the innocent and shy one (and probably the only guilty one)

 

as for Mace marching his army, in the epilogue he says what he would do. Have tommen declare margarery as innocent.

My take of the whole thing is that he will take over the regency, and do just that. He will march his army against Jon conngiton and miserably lose.

At some point, once the tyrells are not so powerful, cersei will return to power and hand Margery over to the faith, so that they can conduct the trial. and she will lose her head.

Edited May 13, 2016 by LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse

[RoamingRonin]

2 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Maar is overtly effeminate, that's what perturbs Arianne. Aegon is not.

Appearance aside, this guy doesn't give good vibes. 

[Lord Varys]

21 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Cersei will rule after she wins her trial.

Yeah, right. Together with Moon Boy and army of cyvasse pieces...

Winning trials doesn't give you power. Power does. And Cersei has none.

Cersei winning the trial might even cause more trouble for her. I mean, if she wins, she'll win with the help of monster created and sustained by black magic. Somehow I don't think the High Septon or the Seven condone this sort of trickery. Not to mention that Ser Robert Strong's true identity as Gregor Clegane might be revealed, too. Since a 'Ser Robert Strong' does not exist people might even decide that this trial was a farce and invalid because Gregor Clegane is not a Kingsguard.

This leads me to

@LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse

If anything of the above or variations of that happen then there is no chance on earth that Cersei and the Faith will ever exchange a friendly word again. Cersei will be in no position to hand over Margaery to the Faith for a later trial, and neither would it make sense in such a scenario that the High Septon would continue to try to persecute Margaery if Cersei has just fucked with him in such a way.

Only if we go with the assumption that nothing extraordinary/weird/ghastly is going to happen during the trial-by-combat is there a chance that Cersei will get out of that unscathed. But if she is revealed to have been championed by a zombie then whatever advantage she will have gained during the trial will be replaced by an evil worse accusation.

Also, if Kevan is correct in his assessment of the political situation in the capital then defying the High Septon on the Margaery issue (i.e. declaring her innocent through Tommen) will lead to fighting in the streets. And once there is fighting the time for talks and trials is done. The High Septon will not be able to keep the peace with King Tommen if fighting breaks out between the sparrows/Poor Fellows and King Tommen's own men (be their Goldcloaks or Tyrell soldiers). He'll be forced to raise the stakes yet again and turn against both King Tommen and his administration (i.e. the Tyrells).

In addition, we'll have to look for the political agenda of the High Septon. Once he learns/has good information about Prince Aegon he'll abandon King Tommen anyway, denounce him as an abomination and bastard born of incest with no right to the Iron Throne, and publicly proclaim that the Seven have revealed to him that the son of Prince Rhaegar - the true king - has come back from across the water to save the good people of Westeros from certain doom. By this time the Faith will have little to no interest in executing queens. They will go after Tommen himself, and who knows - perhaps a bunch of Poor Fellows will crush his head against a wall?

After all, the only thing that kept the High Septon reluctantly in camp Tommen was the fact that there was no alternative. Now there is.

Oh, and another thing: Assuming there is a trial against Margaery and she is convicted or close to being convicted - she still has the right to demand a trial-by-combat. You can apparently always do that, and if Cersei got off the hook using Ser Robert Strong, then Margaery could do the same thing. If Tyrion can demand a trial-by-combat in the middle of his regular trial then Margaery can do the same.

@Lost Melnibonean

Whatever Kevan said to Swyft during the Epilogue is only relevant if Mace doesn't change his mind on that and commands Swyft 'to get out his castle and city at once, and only present yourself again in front of the Iron Throne after he has reached a positive agreement with the Iron Bank of Braavos'. They might not be patient enough for those Myrmen and Pentoshi negotiations. Mace is not bound to anything Kevan said, and Mace and Tarly clearly do not want Swyft to remain in their midst. The man was Hand and Master of Coin under Cersei, after all, and may have been involved in her plots against Margaery. They most certainly do not trust him.

The problem with the Mercy chapter just is that the entire vibe of the chapter doesn't seem to in the present. It is not just the talk about the queen. It is Swyft's behavior, the lack of mentioning of the actual situation in KL (would Swyft even be sent to Braavos for a mission that doesn't seem to be that urgent if Aegon had become a much more severe threat already?) during the conversation of the guardsmen, and the whole Imp hunt stuff.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

theres always the possibility that Marg did have her trial, lost it, and Mace butchered the faith militant to rescue her (which has some foreshadowing IMHO), profanating the sept of baelor with blood.

this of course would bring the faith of the seven to Team Aegon.

[DMC]

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Winning trials doesn't give you power. Power does. And Cersei has none.

I swear to gods you just ripped off show-Cersei telling Littlefinger "power is power."  Too amusing, I had to share

Anyway, thought it was noteworthy Martin confirmed on his live journal that Areo will return as a POV.  Perhaps this was a safe assumption, but in terms of knowing what's going on with Dorne, its reassuring to know Doran can still act as the point-man for all the machinations of Obara/Balon, Tyene/Lady Nym, and Arianne.

I also tend to agree with @LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse in that if we actually do get two trials, one of them's gonna lose, and that one is much more likely to be Marg.  While Cersei gaining power may be far fetched now, it does not take too many dominos to fall for there to be a power vacuum in KL.  And with Varys apparently aiding her for the time being, I anticipate one more reign of terror for the golden queen.

[RoamingRonin]

Has it ever been theorized that Loras yields Storm's End to Aegon? Or has GRRM promised we'd see some fightin'?

[Hos the Hostage]

4 minutes ago, RoamingRonin said:

Has it ever been theorized that Loras yields Storm's End to Aegon? Or has GRRM promised we'd see some fightin'?

Loras captured Dragonstone, not Storm's End.

 

[RoamingRonin]

Just now, Hos the Hostage said:

Loras captured Dragonstone, not Storm's End.

I was in the middle of writing a huge theory based on Loras giving up Storm's End to Aegon... you saved me some embarrassment.

[chrisdaw]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, right. Together with Moon Boy and army of cyvasse pieces...

Winning trials doesn't give you power. Power does. And Cersei has none.

She's the mother of the king and the leader of the king's house, its also Varys' design. It's also there in the Mercy chapter which you're reimagining to suit yourself.

[Ghjhero]

Is the timing of this chapter's release any indication of how far away tWoW is from being done? How does it compare to when the sample chapters of aDwD or other books were released?

[House Cambodia]

4 hours ago, Ghjhero said:

Is the timing of this chapter's release any indication of how far away tWoW is from being done? How does it compare to when the sample chapters of aDwD or other books were released?

I'd say the past is no indication since the TV show proceeding ahead of the book is a game-changer. If anything, the timing is to explicitly contradict plot developments in the show.

[SeanF]

14 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I think Arianne isn't really ambitious per se, but that her ambition is an expression of her jealousy and resentment towards Quentyn. Those feelings run too deep. For years, her mother has been absent and her father distant, and she's developed this idea that her father loves Quentyn more than he does her. I wouldn't be surprised if those feelings predated her discovery of the apparent plan to disinherit her; certainly they must have been reinforced by the way Doran failed to react at her attempts to get his attention (e.g. humping Daemon Sand).

What will be interesting is how she reacts to the Quentyn storyline. I'm half-convinced that he's still alive, and if so, that could spell trouble. Say Quentyn rides back into Dorne atop a dragon: I predict Arianne won't take kindly to being outshined, especially in the eyes of her father (or so she imagines). She could well do something reckless to regain the #1 spot in daddy's heart.

And if Quentyn's really dead, it's still possible her resentments could return to cloud her judgment, perhaps if she becomes jealous of her father's outpouring of emotion. Of course, it's also possible that she will grow out of those feelings, in which case perhaps tragedy can be averted. (Or at least, she won't be the one to cause it.)

The cyclical nature of violence, and the difficulty, and importance, of breaking out of that cycle, is arguably a big theme of these books. (Preston Jacobs has much more on that, although it's probably too soon to say for sure.) What's extra tragic, or ironic, or whatever, then, is that it's partly Doran's thirst for vengeance that has messed up his daughter and potentially continued that cycle. Keeping Arianne in the dark and on the shelf may have been the best way to work at Tywin Lannister's downfall, but it's also given his daughter bone-deep emotional problems that could well lead to a fresh round of horror and tragedy.

Perhaps there's even a touch of foreshadowing in Doran's big speech:

"I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure. I take some small solace in knowing that he died a cruel death at the hands of the monster that he himself begot."

-- "The Princess in the Tower", AFFC

It hearkens back to something Tyrion said:

"It all goes back and back, Tyrion thought, to our mothers and fathers and theirs before them. We are puppets dancing on the strings of those who came before us, and one day our own children will take up our strings and dance on in our steads."

-- Tyrion X, ASOS

If you like, there's a poem that says it pithier.

I'm 99% certain that Quentyn is dead.  But, I think that the news of his death will have a big impact on Dornish policy.  Arianne will likely feel a mix of relief and regret, and project her feelings of guilt about her attitude towards her brother even more on to Dany.

Philip Larkin's poem sums it up very well.  I think that Doran's behaviour has fatally crippled his daughter's chances of winning the game of thrones.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I think it is clear Cersei wins her trial by combat. Else the hype around unGregor will be anti-climactic. Especially after the way in which the hype around the original Gregor proved anti-climactic when the unknown entity of Oberyn defeated him.This time Gregor has to live up to his reputation.

So Gregor wins the trial by combat, and Cersei is restored. This ties in with Varys's whole plot to get Cersei back in power to continue creating chaos. So I think the Mercy Chapter gives us glimpses of the situation in King's Landing AFTER the trial, with Cersei back in power. Note also that Arya's timeline is significantly advanced compared to the rest of the chapters, so again, the Mercy chapter shows us the future rather than the present situation in King's Landing.

In essence, then, the entire drama with the Faith and Cersei's trial was merely a time-buying ploy by Martin, to explain why the Lannisters and Tyrells were not able to press their advantage while the Starks were laid low in the North, while the Riverlands were in chaos and while Aegon was still on his way to Dorne.

For all intents and purposes, Cersei will be back in the position she was before the Faith arrested her, with the main difference that two or three books will have gone by in the interim, allowing other plotlines to catch up with the Lannister/Tyrell alliance. Basically - to give the children time to learn what they were supposed to learn during the 5 year gap.

So Cersei is back in power, only for Dorne to enter the game, the Northern plot to reach its climax, Sansa to make her move from the Vale, the Riverlands to revolt against the Freys, the Tyrells to fall to Euron in the west and to Aegon in the east.

The Faith militant story was just a time-buying mechanism, which Martin was forced to include. It was not the downfall of Cersei as was thought at the time of Feast. She needs to be the Queen that is brought down by someone younger and more beautiful, when the time comes.

Edited May 13, 2016 by Free Northman Reborn

[chrisdaw]

There's obviously an element of don't worry about that show shit I haven't lost my mind with the Dorne plot in him dropping this chapter now. But, I theorise that tunnel in the cave they'd have had to crawl through is seeding for a reveal later in the book. That when that reveal came we were supposed to link it back to that cave and think, "oh, I know now what's down the end of that tunnel in the Stormlands, what its for". Only, the show might be about to drop that reveal.

[Lord Varys]

Come on, guys don't bring Varys into all that. Varys talked about Kevan undoing 'all the Queen's good work'. That doesn't mean he is backing Cersei or wants her back in charge. He wants 'her good work' to continue, and that work was destroying the Lannister-Tyrell alliance as well as the relationship between the Iron Throne/King Tommen and the Faith. Kevan stopped that and was about to reverse the process when Varys killed him.

Varys does not need Cersei back in charge for her to continue her work. She just has to do things that lead to an escalation between the Lannisters/herself, the Tyrells, and the Faith. And Mace certainly is set up to be a pawn in this scheme, too. He'll know that he didn't arrange the murder of Kevan, therefore he should blame Cersei.

7 hours ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

theres always the possibility that Marg did have her trial, lost it, and Mace butchered the faith militant to rescue her (which has some foreshadowing IMHO), profanating the sept of baelor with blood.

this of course would bring the faith of the seven to Team Aegon.

If there is a trial involving Margaery then this certainly is a possible scenario. However, if that happens then I don't see Mace leaving KL and marching the Tyrell army against Storm's End. If there is an all-out war between the Faith and the Tyrells in the city then Mace will not be able to leave it nor will he be able to send many men against Aegon. The risk of losing the city in the process would be way too great. Especially if they do not kill the High Septon, take the Great Sept, and butcher the entire new leadership of the Faith Militant in the city.

Somehow I don't see that happening. I think the new High Septon and the Faith Militant are there to stay and to become a powerful force during the reign of Aegon VI Targaryen. But if there is the Margaery trial and she is found guilty and either supposed to be executed or actually executed then I really see no scenario in which Mace is not going to attack the Faith.

6 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

She's the mother of the king and the leader of the king's house, its also Varys' design. It's also there in the Mercy chapter which you're reimagining to suit yourself.

The Mercy chapter cannot serve as evidence for Cersei regaining power. It is an unfinished chapter, we know they are not set in stone, and that especially this chapter has a complicated origin story going back in its first draft to a time in which Cersei was still in charge in KL as Queen Regent.

If George just wanted to gain time, why did he not leave Cersei out of the entire mess? He could have made it so that Cersei's schemes against Margaery did work, or that she got out of the Great Sept without that walk. In such a scenario her regaining (or keeping) power would have made some sense. Cersei regaining power is as likely as Theon 'Crippled Castrate' Greyjoy ever winning at a Kingsmoot. It is just ridiculous. Eunuchs aren't men, and only men can rule (that is true on the Iron Islands even more than it is in Westeros - Varys could never be king). Women should not rule, but if they do they have to be careful. A woman who has been put into her place as thoroughly as Cersei was is never going to rise to power again. Not without turning the rules of this society on its head. 

The problem with Cersei being in power again is that this makes no sense politically regardless how you spin it.

1. Cersei's personal reputation was destroyed by the walk. She is still the king's mother, but she is also the laughingstock of high and low alive. The rabble threw shit at her! The way she was treated was actually a major step in Tommen's own destruction, and Kevan apparently was to stupid to see that. If you can treat the king's mother this way, then you can treat the king this way, too. And even the king's official - Kevan himself was only ruling in Tommen's name, so if the boy has no power to protect his own, then Kevan has no power, too.

The idea that anyone in KL would fight or obey Cersei after the walk even if she ends up winning her trial (without any incident revealing that her champion is a monstrous zombie) just doesn't make any sense.

2. Even if her reputation hadn't been destroyed, she lacks the men to seize power again. Even a Cersei cleared of all charges would have to stage a coup to take the Regency back. Who would help her with that? I just don't see anyone in the city who would.

3. The Tyrells were effectively in control of the city and castle even before Ser Kevan came to the capital. Mace and Tarly did allow him to take the Regency. The Tyrells greatly outnumber the Lannister forces in KL and so Cersei would have no chance to regain power even if her reputation was still as golden as her (cut off) hair.

Even if we imagine a scenario in which the Tyrells completely or nearly completely abandon the city (although I cannot really imagine such a scenario) the best Cersei could most likely accomplish is to create more chaos. The city and people there wouldn't follow regardless how she called herself. Her time as a ruler of KL is over, at least for the time being.

I can only see her getting a power again in the West or at the side of strong new husband (like Euron or another powerful lord).

Speaking about Cersei - has anybody ever considered the chance of her ending up as Alicent Hightower for the time being? Meaning that she is going to be captured and chained like Alicent was, being treated like a trophy by a victorious Aegon? Women usually are seldom executed, and any evil schemes Cersei Lannister perpetrated actually helped the Targaryen cause inadvertently (cuckolding Robert ruined the claims/reputation of her own children; arranging Robert's death made sure the Realm descended into chaos).

In such setting Cersei could actually survive long enough to pull off some weirdo wildfire revenge fantasy later on in the story (during the war between Aegon and Dany, for instance). She doesn't have to be a woman in charge for all of that, actually. But I really don't buy this idea.