[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

[TheReal_Rebel]

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

For such an important diplomatic mission, you need to go in person.

She could go after Daemon Sand returned and said it was safe.  She still has Ravens she can send to Dorne about her situation.  She should be using that as leverage.  

To my mind she is as much as likely to be killed or taken captive by Connington, or a returning Lannister/Tyrell forces.

Her instincts tell her as much but, like Quentyn, she fails to listen out of a sense of duty, curiosity, youthful invincibility, and her own sense of self and Dorne's importance.

A clue to Arrianne concerning marriage would've been how she was received.  She was not received as a potential bride of a potential King.  She was received as an envoy and now, likely, hostage.  

As others have stated, Connington wants FAegon to marry Dany.  But Arrianne's only safety may be in either she or Elia seducing FAegon.

Edited May 13, 2016 by TheReal_Rebel

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Masha said:

Doran didn't send her there to make an alliance, he sent her to investigate and let him know if there should be an alliance in the first place, and not waste Dorne's money and blood on pretenders with no blood ties to Martells.

She didn't stumble yet. By thinking that she has no choice but to go to JonCon she is making a mistake. She really should have send Daemon there regardless of her feelings of honor and such. And after her impetuous POVs earlier now she is behaving like Quentin by allowing her assumptions, pretensions of power to cloud her judgement.

She will not be JonCon's hostage - she will have a huge crush on fAegon who probably will have zero interest in her other than her Dorne connections.

You are not making sense. Arianne is in no danger from the Golden Company. Aegon and the Golden Company have to seduce her, not the other way around. The Golden Company wants Dorne's support, not the other way around. If Aegon mistreats her, threatens her, or takes her captive, then Doran will write some letters to Mace, and they will crush the Golden Company at Storm's End together.

The risk Daemon Sand sees is mostly that Arianne will be caught up in events if Aegon loses his battle against the Tyrells. But she should still be able to get away. Storm's End has a harbor, after all, so she should be able to take a ship before Storm's End is besieged.

And the idea of Daemon Sand acting as Arianne's envoy is just silly. Dorne has to decide whether Aegon is the real deal or not (or at least a potential tool/ally against the Lannisters). And Arianne Martell is Dorne, not some bastard. She has to make that call.

And I'm pretty convinced she won't rush her decision to join Aegon. They will meet, and then she'll send a letter to Doran to tell him what she thinks. In the meantime the battle might occur. Then Arianne will sent another raven, and Doran may have answered in-between, having perhaps received word from Meereen about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr zo Loraq and her alleged death/disappearance. That will bury the Quentyn plan. At that part it will be 'doing nothing again' or 'joining Aegon'. And I think at that point even Doran is going to prefer doing something over doing nothing.

[Lord Varys]

53 minutes ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

I think it's both. Their "golden crows" is what make people doubt they are Robert's what eventually will condemn them. They need to be crowned with gold despite their hair is golden. That will be their curse.

Well, the prophecy is already wrong about the crowns if you like splitting hairs. Tommen is wearing Joffrey's crown after his coronation. It is too heavy for him, remember AFfC. So the interpretation/claim/view that all of Cersei's children will wear their own (different) golden crowns is clearly wrong. At least two of them wore the same crown, and should Myrcella ever been proclaimed Queen Regnant in her own right she most likely would also wear the same crown as Tommen and Joffrey (unless we assume they take their time to make a new one for Myrcella - which isn't very likely considering that they didn't make a new one for Tommen).

In that sense a prophecy correctly foretelling the fate of Cersei's children would be 'golden will be their crown' rather than crowns.

And if that's true, then I really see no point trying to insist that all of them have to be ruling monarchs to wear crowns.

[DarkSister1001]

Regarding the flora in this chapter.  I think that's explicitly for the weirwoods.  They don't flower so they would need to release spores in order to reproduce.  The spores are carried on the wind and land germinate in damp places.  I think he's setting the stage for us and what appears to be over-the-top scenery is actually a weirwood maternity ward.

[Masha]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are not making sense. Arianne is in no danger from the Golden Company. Aegon and the Golden Company have to seduce her, not the other way around. The Golden Company wants Dorne's support, not the other way around. If Aegon mistreats her, threatens her, or takes her captive, then Doran will write some letters to Mace, and they will crush the Golden Company at Storm's End together.

The risk Daemon Sand sees is mostly that Arianne will be caught up in events if Aegon loses his battle against the Tyrells. But she should still be able to get away. Storm's End has a harbor, after all, so she should be able to take a ship before Storm's End is besieged.

And the idea of Daemon Sand acting as Arianne's envoy is just silly. Dorne has to decide whether Aegon is the real deal or not (or at least a potential tool/ally against the Lannisters). And Arianne Martell is Dorne, not some bastard. She has to make that call.

And I'm pretty convinced she won't rush her decision to join Aegon. They will meet, and then she'll send a letter to Doran to tell him what she thinks. In the meantime the battle might occur. Then Arianne will sent another raven, and Doran may have answered in-between, having perhaps received word from Meereen about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr zo Loraq and her alleged death/disappearance. That will bury the Quentyn plan. At that part it will be 'doing nothing again' or 'joining Aegon'. And I think at that point even Doran is going to prefer doing something over doing nothing.

The reason I am thinking there is a threat to her is because she thinks so herself. When Daemon objects to her going - Arianne thinks that she has "uneasy" feelings that she would be forced to go on the ship whether she wants to or not, she gets completely negative and threatening impressions from the Golden companies like "making her skin crawl", "cold eyes", etc.  Furthermore, Golden Company mercenaries basically assume that she will go to Storms End and her Dorne's support automatically, they dismiss her  words and they definitely don't attempt to woo her. And she is getting a bit concerns

Then she basically gets her chin up, and decides to do her duty - exactly like Quentin, because she needs to check out Aegon, and dismissed her instinct and plunges in.

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, Masha said:

The reason I am thinking there is a threat to her is because she thinks so herself. When Daemon objects to her going - Arianne thinks that she has "uneasy" feelings that she would be forced to go on the ship whether she wants to or not, she gets completely negative and threatening impressions from the Golden companies like "making her skin crawl", "cold eyes", etc.  Furthermore, Golden Company mercenaries basically assume that she will go to Storms End and her Dorne's support automatically, they dismiss her  words and they definitely don't attempt to woo her. And she is getting a bit concerns

Then she basically gets her chin up, and decides to do her duty - exactly like Quentin, because she needs to check out Aegon, and dismissed her instinct and plunges in.

Arianne came to Griffin's Roost to meet Jon Connington and Prince Aegon. Once she arrives there, both are gone. She is probably correct that Haldon and Maar wouldn't allow her to go back home before she has at least spoken to Connington and Aegon as she has intended. The idea that she can turn back now just because they are at Storm's End rather than at Griffin's Roost is silly in itself. Doran wants Arianne's opinion on Aegon and Connington, after all.

But even if the Golden Company would decide to not allow her to return home yet and take her to Storm's End by force this doesn't mean she would be their hostage. Their guest until she has done what she came for. Arianne is Doran's daughter and heir, but she isn't Doran himself, nor is she in control of Dorne yet. If they would take her hostage they wouldn't gain the allegiance of Dorne.

Different thing:

What do you guys think will the effect of the revelation/existence of Ser Robert Strong have on the Martells. One assumes that Lady Nym would seen through his disguise as soon as she first sees him, and whatever he does during the trial-by-combat would only confirm that.

Doran Martell has shown that he can take a lot before he gets angry. But he really assumed the head they got was Gregor's. I can't but wonder whether such a blatant lie trickery would twist the knife that hit him when Oberyn was killed yet again.

[Grizzly Mormont]

1 hour ago, DarkSister1001 said:

Regarding the flora in this chapter.  I think that's explicitly for the weirwoods.  They don't flower so they would need to release spores in order to reproduce.  The spores are carried on the wind and land germinate in damp places.  I think he's setting the stage for us and what appears to be over-the-top scenery is actually a weirwood maternity ward.

Yes, I thought the existence of weirwoods here was very important hint too. Paired with the cotf cavern, this place has some interesting cotf implications. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Different thing:

What do you guys think will the effect of the revelation/existence of Ser Robert Strong have on the Martells. One assumes that Lady Nym would seen through his disguise as soon as she first sees him, and whatever he does during the trial-by-combat would only confirm that.

Doran Martell has shown that he can take a lot before he gets angry. But he really assumed the head they got was Gregor's. I can't but wonder whether such a blatant lie trickery would twist the knife that hit him when Oberyn was killed yet again.

Well, the head might indeed have been Gregor's.. But I doubt that will matter much to the Dornish with the remainder of Gregor continueing to walk around.

Seeing Ser Robert Strong might lead to Nym and Tyene deviating from Doran's orders. And that might easily lead to some trouble in KL (in addition to the trouble already there, of course )

[DarkSister1001]

32 minutes ago, Grizzly Mormont said:

Yes, I thought the existence of weirwoods here was very important hint too. Paired with the cotf cavern, this place has some interesting cotf implications. 

Absolutely.  Especially considering this is the south and almost all of the weirwoods were cut down or burned in the south signifying the dwindling of the Old Gods in the region.  I think it speaks volumes. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Well, the head might indeed have been Gregor's.. But I doubt that will matter much to the Dornish with the remainder of Gregor continueing to walk around.

Seeing Ser Robert Strong might lead to Nym and Tyene deviating from Doran's orders. And that might easily lead to some trouble in KL (in addition to the trouble already there, of course )

Well, Nym doesn't exactly have an army with her, so she won't be able to do all that much. And I'm not sure if Nym's mission is still relevant right now. When Doran dispatched her he still intended to buy time for Quentyn and Daenerys. But right now Arianne has nearly reached Aegon and Nym is not yet in KL. Assuming she will be allowed to stay at court (and not arrested or thrown out of the city) she won't have much time to influence things and should Doran and Arianne proclaim for Aegon she might very well be killed.

In fact, if Nym ever gets to KL she is a very likely candidate for the first Sand Snake to die. Tyene should be able to join the Faith in no time but Nym will be a public and recognizable Dornish face in the city.

By the way: George has commented that Areo Hotah will remain a POV in TWoW. Any ideas where he is story is going to go? Many people have speculated for quite a long time that this is going to lead to his death and Obara's as well (and perhaps Darkstar's, too). But I don't think that's actually very likely.

I think the only point of the Darkstar story is to finally introduce House Dayne into the story, with Obara/Areo learning something at High Hermitage that may lead them to Starfall. And we really want to meet the real Daynes eventually, don't we? It is certainly no coincidence that no representative of Lord Edric showed up at Sunspear in the last two books.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

54 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, Nym doesn't exactly have an army with her, so she won't be able to do all that much. And I'm not sure if Nym's mission is still relevant right now. When Doran dispatched her he still intended to buy time for Quentyn and Daenerys. But right now Arianne has nearly reached Aegon and Nym is not yet in KL. Assuming she will be allowed to stay at court (and not arrested or thrown out of the city) she won't have much time to influence things and should Doran and Arianne proclaim for Aegon she might very well be killed.

In fact, if Nym ever gets to KL she is a very likely candidate for the first Sand Snake to die. Tyene should be able to join the Faith in no time but Nym will be a public and recognizable Dornish face in the city.

By the way: George has commented that Areo Hotah will remain a POV in TWoW. Any ideas where he is story is going to go? Many people have speculated for quite a long time that this is going to lead to his death and Obara's as well (and perhaps Darkstar's, too). But I don't think that's actually very likely.

I think the only point of the Darkstar story is to finally introduce House Dayne into the story, with Obara/Areo learning something at High Hermitage that may lead them to Starfall. And we really want to meet the real Daynes eventually, don't we? It is certainly no coincidence that no representative of Lord Edric showed up at Sunspear in the last two books.

 

More important than what Doran had in mind for Nym in KL, is what GRRM had in mind for her. Clearly she is supposed to play a role in KL during what we could call, the "tyrell regime" (if indeed Mace takes over during Twow) otherwise, GRRM wouln´t have send her there.

I don´t think they are supposed to reach KL and die right away.. they are supposed to dance, during the whole book, until Dorne is ready to join the war.

More so, i think all sand snakes (save for sarella) will contribute to push dorne to war (for the wrong team).. specially (these two), when they see Ser Robert, they are going to feel cheated.

Nym already told us what she wanted, to kill Tywin, Cersei, Jaime, and tommen

Tyene will posion tommen, and Nym will try to kill cersei (and face ser Robert)

 

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Darkstar, i think they are two theories around that i like

a) he steals dawn and joins Aegon´s KG

b ) Joins obara and with the remaining brave companions raids Oldtown.

 

[Lord Varys]

22 minutes ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

More important than what Doran had in mind for Nym in KL, is what GRRM had in mind for her. Clearly she is supposed to play a role in KL during what we could call, the "tyrell regime" (if indeed Mace takes over during Twow) otherwise, GRRM wouln´t have send her there.

I don´t think they are supposed to reach KL and die right away.. they are supposed to dance, during the whole book, until Dorne is ready to join the war.

More so, i think all sand snakes (save for sarella) will contribute to push dorne to war (for the wrong team).. specially (these two), when they see Ser Robert, they are going to feel cheated.

Nym already told us what she wanted, to kill Tywin, Cersei, Jaime, and tommen

Tyene will posion tommen, and Nym will try to kill cersei (and face ser Robert)

I don't think there is a chance for any of that. Doran and Arianne will commit their armies to Aegon's cause pretty soon. Perhaps even prior to the battle against the Tyrell, perhaps only thereafter. But they cannot sit back and wait any longer.

Tyene has little to no chance to get close to Tommen. She is supposed to infiltrate the Great Sept and not the court. And Nym might not even be allowed to join the Small Council or be welcome in the castle. Why should Mace allow her to sit on his Small Council?

I don't think it is a given that Nym is even supposed to reach KL. She could just have been a tool to get Myrcella to Aegon, and might join him and Arianne at Storm's End.

George has also confirmed that there won't be any additional Dornish POV so there is also no good chance we'll get any insight in the politicking at court aside from Cersei's perspective - who might no longer be allowed to play or witness anything of importance. She certainly won't be privy to anything Mace, Tarly, and Margaery talk about. That could be a pretty big hint that the time of court intrigues is over. Aegon is coming, and what happens in KL will no longer matter.

Oh, and there is a very good chance that Nym would be executed pretty quickly should Myrcelle ever be reunited with her mother. Cersei will ask her daughter what actually happened in Dorne. And if Myrcella tells the truth then Nymeria is not going to leave the Red Keep in one piece.

Edited May 13, 2016 by Lord Varys

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think there is a chance for any of that. Doran and Arianne will commit their armies to Aegon's cause pretty soon. Perhaps even prior to the battle against the Tyrell, perhaps only thereafter. But they cannot sit back and wait any longer.

Tyene has little to no chance to get close to Tommen. She is supposed to infiltrate the Great Sept and not the court. And Nym might not even be allowed to join the Small Council or be welcome in the castle. Why should Mace allow her to sit on his Small Council?

I don't think it is a given that Nym is even supposed to reach KL. She could just have been a tool to get Myrcella to Aegon, and might join him and Arianne at Storm's End.

George has also confirmed that there won't be any additional Dornish POV so there is also no good chance we'll get any insight in the politicking at court aside from Cersei's perspective - who might no longer be allowed to play or witness anything of importance. She certainly won't be privy to anything Mace, Tarly, and Margaery talk about. That could be a pretty big hint that the time of court intrigues is over. Aegon is coming, and what happens in KL will no longer matter.

Oh, and there is a very good chance that Nym would be executed pretty quickly should Myrcelle ever be reunited with her mother. Cersei will ask her daughter what actually happened in Dorne. And if Myrcella tells the truth then Nymeria is not going to leave the Red Keep in one piece.

 

1) Doran is a cuatious man. He won´t commit to anything until he knows about Quentyn

2) Tyene doesnt need to posion tommen directly. Just his cats with basilisks blood. As a writter you don´t create a character who is an expert in poison so that you don´t even try to use him to posion someone. She is another chehkov gun waiting to be shoot.

Mace won´t like it, but would he dare insult Doran martelll by refusing Dorne its seat in the small council?

3) Myrcella has already reached KL. besides she needs to be crowned.

4) we don´t know what will be Cerseis role in the Tyrell regime.

5) there is little chance of Nym being executed quicky. No sense in sending her there.

[Lord Varys]

@LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse

1. I don't think so. What if the news about Quentyn only arrives months later? Are you saying Dorne will stand by and do nothing while Aegon loses his war?

2. So you think Tyene doesn't have access to Tommen but to his cats? Not sure how that will work. Not to mention that Tyene doesn't even know Tommen has cats and how they look. I'd agree that Tyene might poison somebody. Perhaps the High Sparrow once he is no longer needed. Or some judges if they don't want to convict Margaery (in a scenario in which there is a trial and Tyene becomes one of the judges).

If Mace becomes the Lord Regent as well as the Hand he can do whatever the hell he wants. Nymeria is woman and a bastard and the daughter of that piece of shit who crippled his eldest son and heir. He has every reason to not allow her a seat on the council. The seat was granted to Prince Doran Martell not to his brother's bastard daughter, after all. Not to mention that he is not bound by the words of either Tyrion or Kevan.

3. Myrcella hasn't yet reached KL.

4. Well, we can reasonably assume she won't get a seat on the Small Council. Or talk to Mace and Margaery without a score or more Tyrell guardsmen in the room.

5. Again, she isn't even there yet. How can you say her purpose is to do stuff there if we don't yet know that she'll get there alive? Robb also had a plan how to return home and retake the North. That didn't work, either.

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

Seriously, nobody has anything to say about "The new Daenerys Targaryen"?

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, Masha said:

Doran didn't send her there to make an alliance, he sent her to investigate and let him know if there should be an alliance in the first place, and not waste Dorne's money and blood on pretenders with no blood ties to Martells.

She didn't stumble yet. By thinking that she has no choice but to go to JonCon she is making a mistake. She really should have send Daemon there regardless of her feelings of honor and such. And after her impetuous POVs earlier now she is behaving like Quentin by allowing her assumptions, pretensions of power to cloud her judgement.

She will not be JonCon's hostage - she will have a huge crush on fAegon who probably will have zero interest in her other than her Dorne connections. 

 

 

She was in Jon Connington/Aegon's power as soon as she entered Mistwood. Aegon's camp has no wish to make an enemy in Dorne, though. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the prophecy is already wrong about the crowns if you like splitting hairs. Tommen is wearing Joffrey's crown after his coronation. It is too heavy for him, remember AFfC. So the interpretation/claim/view that all of Cersei's children will wear their own (different) golden crowns is clearly wrong. At least two of them wore the same crown, and should Myrcella ever been proclaimed Queen Regnant in her own right she most likely would also wear the same crown as Tommen and Joffrey (unless we assume they take their time to make a new one for Myrcella - which isn't very likely considering that they didn't make a new one for Tommen).

In that sense a prophecy correctly foretelling the fate of Cersei's children would be 'golden will be their crown' rather than crowns.

And if that's true, then I really see no point trying to insist that all of them have to be ruling monarchs to wear crowns.

Ah, they've worn crowns since birth as wee princelings, so that piece of the prophecy was fulfilled, an all they still have to do is die before Cersei. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Arianne came to Griffin's Roost to meet Jon Connington and Prince Aegon. Once she arrives there, both are gone. She is probably correct that Haldon and Maar wouldn't allow her to go back home before she has at least spoken to Connington and Aegon as she has intended. The idea that she can turn back now just because they are at Storm's End rather than at Griffin's Roost is silly in itself. Doran wants Arianne's opinion on Aegon and Connington, after all.

But even if the Golden Company would decide to not allow her to return home yet and take her to Storm's End by force this doesn't mean she would be their hostage. Their guest until she has done what she came for. Arianne is Doran's daughter and heir, but she isn't Doran himself, nor is she in control of Dorne yet. If they would take her hostage they wouldn't gain the allegiance of Dorne.

Different thing:

What do you guys think will the effect of the revelation/existence of Ser Robert Strong have on the Martells. One assumes that Lady Nym would seen through his disguise as soon as she first sees him, and whatever he does during the trial-by-combat would only confirm that.

Doran Martell has shown that he can take a lot before he gets angry. But he really assumed the head they got was Gregor's. I can't but wonder whether such a blatant lie trickery would twist the knife that hit him when Oberyn was killed yet again.

Well, he already hates the Lannisters, so what's a little more hate in a world full of hate? So depressing...

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

Darkstar, i think they are two theories around that i like

a) he steals dawn and joins Aegon´s KG

b ) Joins obara and with the remaining brave companions raids Oldtown.

 

C'mon man... Darkstar is the Brightfame!

Edited May 14, 2016 by Lost Melnibonean