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[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

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5 hours ago, PCK said:

1. Doran sent Elia Sand with Arianne to teach her who she should be keeping an eye on.

Eh? Could you please explain?

Re: Arianne's reaction to Lysono Maar, I think, based on nothing but the feeling of my own considerable gut, that Lysono Maar will be a relatively important character as the story progresses, and Arianne's reaction to meeting him is an opportunity for GRRM to signal that this character is untrustworthy. If Aegon takes King's Landing Maar may well find himself spymaster, well-placed to conduct shenanigans. And I note that he's a relatively recent addition to the Golden Company, the only one of the officers whom Jon Connington doesn't know.
Re: Randyll Tarly's holy oath: while I agree that the man is not religious, he is certainly proud. If he breaks a vow to the High Septon, he loses face, and he cares very much about that.

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No ideas/thoughts on the Lady Nym/Tyene/Myrcella matter? Are they going to slip past the Golden Company or will Arianne meet them as 'guests' in Storm's End. They are taking the Boneway and the Kingsroad which means they are going to pass Storm's End directly. And nothing suggests that they were told about the Golden Company invasion in time.

Well, it all depends on the timeline. They leave Sunspear at some point after AFFC, chp. 38 ("The Watcher"). We don't know how long the journey takes from Sunspear to King's Landing; that same chapter might tell us, but bear in mind the Dornish lords have been deliberately slowing Balon Swann's southward journey. I'm in the process of constructing a timeline at the moment, but it seems like there's 15-20 days between the takings of Griffin's Roost and Storm's End. The ADWD epilogue takes place at least a day after the taking of Griffin's Roost, possibly a few more, and Myrcella has yet to make it back to King's Landing.

Great catch, by the way.

Edit: 15-20 days was a mistake. I can't be that certain when Storm's End was taken with reference to Griffin's Roost; it's 11 days, plus time marching, plus time fighting and/or conniving.

Edited by Illyrio Mo'Parties
I did a boo-boo

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13 hours ago, Veltigar said:

I don't believe Mace himself would come down to SE (free victory for the GC otherwise), since I don't think the timeline allows for Margaery's trial to have already happened (I could be spectacularly wrong on that count though, like I said it's been a while).

 

Well, I'm trying to figure out the timeline right now, but it's proving harder than I thought. Still, I think it's a definite maybe.

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14 hours ago, Ser Wun Wun said:

I agree, Aegon + Arianne just makes too much sense not to happen.

Based on what? That would destroy a significant amount of Arianne's character development in Feast, where the Darkstart fiasco teaches her that she shouldn't be suckered by looks.

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1 minute ago, The Black Adder of Dorne said:

Based on what? That would destroy a significant amount of Arianne's character development in Feast, where the Darkstart fiasco teaches her that she shouldn't be suckered by looks.

Well, that'll be the test, won't it? Can she learn her lesson? My money is on "no".

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You're not alone at least, Northernmonkey. I absolutely loved the description of the Stormlands especially as this is essentially our introduction to them. And I love the fact that there is a cave in the stormlands with a deep cavern that has evidence of the children of the forest living there not to mention the fact that there is still the occasional weirwood sprinkled amongst the water soaked forests that cover the coasts of the stormlands.

This chapter was all about Arianne's inner machinations, learning how to navigate the political field and learning when to channel the strengths of her two father figures: she is aptly cautious like Doran where she needs to be but also understands that there are times she will have to channel Oberyn and be more bold.

Love the fact that we're getting more characterization of another Sand Snake.

And of course the important information we have learned is the fact that Storm's End has already fallen to JonCon and FAegon.

Very curious to know who is leading that army from King's Landing. Looks like we have our next battle to look forward to possibly after the resolutions of both the battle of fire in Meereen and the battle of ice at Winterfell.

All in all good chapter and a wonderful pallet cleanser after the crapfest that has been the TV show later but of course it only makes me more anxious for the rest of the book.

Edited by Mistress of Lemon Cakes

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The reception to this around the net has not been strong. I fear George is losing it. The mediocre last 2 books + these mediocre samples have not invoked confidence that he'll return to pre Feast form.

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With regard to Lord Varys's idea, the trip from King's Landing to Sunspear takes Balon Swann months, but that's with the Dornish lords stalling him all the way. As of the ADWD epilogue, Kevan believes Myrcella to be on her way, but we don't know how recent his intelligence is.

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Re-reading the chapter now, I am curious to know about the time when 'someone made off with Strickland's favorite elephant'.

Edited by Hos the Hostage

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1 hour ago, Jack Bauer 24 said:

The reception to this around the net has not been strong. I fear George is losing it. The mediocre last 2 books + these mediocre samples have not invoked confidence that he'll return to pre Feast form.

Well to be fair, at this point these sample chapters have become a bit of a joke. As of this one over 11 have been released which is essentially around 1/6 of the book. 

 

Assuming this thing ever comes out, I'm going to have already read the first 100 or so pages at this rate, lol

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2 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

6. Arianna is so going to fall for Aegon and not like Dany. I really wonder what her and the rest of the Martell family's reaction to his death is going to be like. She's spent years thinking of him as her enemy, plotting to steal her place in Dorne, and now, without having had the chance to see him for the first time in a long time, he's gone.

I'm not so sure Arriane is going to fall for fAegon. I think it is heavily foreshadowed that Elia gets in the way or causes some sort of trouble here and I also think Arriane will ultimately understand why Daenerys isn't to blame for Quentyns death when she gets the full story. Also Arrianes first thoughts of Lysono ...

His eyes were a pale lilac, his hair a waterfall of white and gold. All the same, something about him made her skin crawl. Was this what Viserys looked like? she found herself wondering. If so perhaps it is a good thing he is dead. 

...could well be similar to what she thinks of Aegon.

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17 hours ago, Veltigar said:

I wonder who is leading that army. It's been a while since I read Dance, but if I recall correctly, Rowan was besieging SE. So, Connington must have either killed, captured, routed or - imo the most likely bet - turned lord Rowan. I don't believe Mace himself would come down to SE (free victory for the GC otherwise), since I don't think the timeline allows for Margaery's trial to have already happened (I could be spectacularly wrong on that count though, like I said it's been a while).

I could be spectacularly wrong too, but what the hell. As to whether the timeline permits Mace to be leading the Tyrell charge against Storm's End, the answer is... maybe? I could use some help plugging in some gaps below, actually.

As of the ADWD epilogue, the Small Council is aware that Connington is approaching Storm's End, but doesn't seem to have taken the castle yet. But in TWOW, Arianne II, the men at Griffin's Roost say that Connington's done it, and an army from King's Landing is only a few days away. (1)

Now, I can't see Mace Tyrell going to Storm's End if his daughter is found guilty and executed, so either she's found innocent, or he leaves before the trial. Now, if the latter, I can't see him skipping the trial (unless he thinks he's got it stitched up), but I can see him having the trial postponed while he goes to deal with Connington, and that's in keeping with his character - no doubt Mace thinks he could beat Connington pretty handily and be back at KL before the month is out. However, per the ADWD epilogue Mace seems pretty keen to get the whole thing over with. And as Lord Varys points out, it's only Kevan Lannister preventing him from overruling the Faith and simply having Tommen declare Margaery innocent. With Kevan dead, Mace may get the whole thing wrapped up pretty quickly, which would leave him free to deal with Connington.

(Sidebar: overruling the Faith like that could upset both them and Randyll Tarly, which might give Jon Connington some interesting options if he tries to take King's Landing.)

Either way - trial or no trial - Margaery is probably declared innocent before TWOW, Arianne II, for Mace to be leading the army. The question is, is it him that's leading the army? Arianne and Daemon Sand seem to think so, but it all depends on the timeline, so let's look closely and see what we find.

Arianne's journey:

Day A - message received at Sunspear (2)
Day B - departs Sunspear
Day C - arrives Water Gardens (3)
Day 1 - departs Water Gardens
Day 2 -
Day 3 - arrives Ghost Hill
Day 4 - sails aboard Peregrine
Day 5 - arr. Weeping Town
Day 6 - dep. Weeping Town
Day 7 -
Day 8 -
Day 9 -
Day 10 - arr. Mistwood; earliest date for taking of Storm's End, assuming ravenry delay
Day 11 - dep. Mistwood; Storm's End not taken as far as Mistwood knows
Day 12 -
Day 13 -
Day 14 -
Day 15 - goodbye Chains, hello Lysono Maar
Day 16 -
Day 17 -
Day 18 - arr. Griffin's Roost; Storm's End already taken; Haldon Halfmaester seems surprised they don't know; enemy army en route

I assume Storm's End was taken at the earliest possible date, or close to it. Lysono Maar is probably too important to spare as an escort if the castle is untaken, especially if they're taking it through "guile". Also consider Haldon's reaction: he assumes they'd know already, but he must know that they've spent several days in the company of Lysono Maar and his disciplined cohorts, who may as well have been mute, according to Arianne. It's not definitive, but if Lysono & co. have a reputation for being tight-lipped, it gives Haldon a possible reason to assume that the Dornish must have heard about Storm's End before the two groups met, which would mean the battle happened several days earlier.

Now let's look at Jon Connington's timeline:

(Note: day 1 here is not the same as above, and so on.)

Day 1 - siezes Griffin's Roost
Day 2 - sends letter to Dorne
Day 3 -
Day 4 -
Day 5 - Aegon arrives
Day 6 -
Day 7 -
Day 8 -
Day 9 -
Day 10 -
Day 11 - dep. Griffin's Roost (4)
Day D - arr. Storm's End
Day E - neutralize besieging army
Day F - take castle

Now, if it would take two or three days for Arianne's party to ride, I have to assume an army would be slower. Moreover, I don't know if they'd meet any resistance on the way, so I really have no idea how long it would take to march to Storm's End, nor how long it would take to win the castle once they arrived. It might take a while, but then again, D, E and F could very easily all happen on the same day.

Now we don't know if there was time spent at Sunspear or the Water Gardens making arrangements between Arianne's days A and 1, but if we assume there was no dawdling at all, we can construct a minimum length of time between Doran receiving Jon's message and Arianne arriving at Griffin's Roost. Once we have that, we can cross-reference it with the JonCon timeline, and that can tell us how much time elapsed between his day 11 and the taking of the castle. From that, we can infer how much time his army was afield, which will give us a window of time in which we can place the ADWD epilogue, and hopefully, get an idea of how soon after that chapter must Margaery have been declared innocent, in order for Mace Tyrell to be leading the army against Storm's End.

And if we know that then we can predict that Mace will lose, and Dorne will declare for Aegon, as will the rest of the Stormlands. Given that, and the Golden Company's "friends in the Reach", we can expect Aegon to take King's Landing and be sitting the Iron Throne by the end of The Winds of Winter. This will set us up nicely for a second Dance of Dragons, which will devastate the realm even worse than the War of the Five Kings did, and worse, will distract everybody so that the Others can sweep down unopposed. And once that happens we can suppose that the remainder of mankind will set aside their differences and vanquish their true enemy. Basically, we won't even need to read the rest of the books.

So does anybody know how long it takes to go from Sunspear to the Water Gardens?

Or even better - how long does it take to march an army from King's Landing to Storm's End? Subtract a couple of days from that, and you have the number of days between TWOW, Arianne II, and Margaery's being declared innocent.

---------------------------

(1) “These rains have turned the roads to mud. The journey [from Griffin's Roost to Storm's End] would take two days, perhaps three,” said Halden Halfmaester.  "A ship will have the princess there in half a day or less. There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing. You will want to be safe inside the walls before the battle.”
-- Arianne II, TWOW. Haldon evidently thinks it a real possibility that this army might reach Storm's End within the next two or three days.

(2) "We have heard the same tales here that you have heard at Sunspear," Lady Nymella told them as her serving man poured the wine. "Sellswords landing on Cape Wrath, castles under siege or being taken, crops seized or burned. Where these men come from and who they are, no one is certain." "Pirates and adventurers, we heard at first," said Valena. "Then it was supposed to be the Golden Company. Now it's said to be Jon Connington, the Mad King's Hand, come back from the grave to reclaim his birthright. Whoever it is, Griffin's Roost has fallen to them. Rain House, Crow's Nest, Mistwood, even Greenstone on its island. All taken."
-- Arianne I, TWOW. It seems that the raven informing Lady Nymella about Arianne's trip came from Sunspear.

Also: it seems that Ghost Hill hasn't heard about Aegon, but in the ADWD epilogue the Small Council has. Meanwhile, Ghost Hill is privy to information from which the Small Council could infer the identity of the new pirate king in the Stepstones, who remains mysterious to the council as of the ADWD epilogue. It seems like a lot of information is still in transit - rumours that have reached Ghost Hill haven't reached King's Landing, and vice versa - and I think this suggests that these chapters don't take place that far apart.

(3) I don't have the books to hand, but I think the travel time here should be mentioned in AFFC chp. 2, "The Captain of the Guards", if anywhere.

(4) "On the morning of the eleventh day, we ride for Storm's End." -- The Griffin Reborn, ADWD

Edited by Illyrio Mo'Parties

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1 hour ago, Makk said:

I'm not so sure Arriane is going to fall for fAegon. I think it is heavily foreshadowed that Elia gets in the way or causes some sort of trouble here and I also think Arriane will ultimately understand why Daenerys isn't to blame for Quentyns death when she gets the full story. Also Arrianes first thoughts of Lysono ...

His eyes were a pale lilac, his hair a waterfall of white and gold. All the same, something about him made her skin crawl. Was this what Viserys looked like? she found herself wondering. If so perhaps it is a good thing he is dead. 

...could well be similar to what she thinks of Aegon.

The thing is Lysono dresses like a woman, has a personality befitting his occupation, and doesn't look anything like Aegon apart from the hair and eyes plus when you consider that Aegon is everything Arianna likes (headstrong, bold, handsome), is a teenager, and she herself an older exotic (in Aegon's eyes) woman experienced in the art of seduction...

As for Elia I can see her causing trouble and, being a teenager herself, making advances on Aegon, but she is still no competition for Arianna. Plus, there is no way JonCon is going to let his prince fall for a bastard cousin who brings nothing to the table. No way in the seven hells.

As for Dany, she's already thinking negatively of her and if Arianna receives a negative telling of Quentyn's death first well one the damage has already been done and two there are no second first impressions.

Edited by The Grey Wolf

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A friend via twitter made me notices that we haven't yet met the Stormlands, so yep, the descriptions were somehow needed.

59 minutes ago, Victarion Chainbreaker said:

"The new Daenerys Targaryen"?!!

The scent of victory smells surprisingly like lemons.

No, it's my new perfume U_U

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It's been a while since I've read ADWD and can't remember whether or not Septa Lemore is still with JC and Aegon. If she is we may finally either put to rest or confirm the minor theory of Lemore being Tyene Sand's mother.

I always think Dayne before Targaryen when reading "purple/lilac/violet eyes".

Looking forward to a possible Tyrell/GC battle, but am thinking it may be one of Mace's sons leading House Tyrell even if inept Mace is present.

 

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