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[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

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29 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Wait... Rowan laments this? Could you kindy provide the quote or location in the books? 

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Catelyn II

"Jaime Lannister is held prisoner at Riverrun."

"Still alive?" Lord Mathis Rowan seemed dismayed.

Bemused, Renly said, "It would seem the direwolf is gentler than the lion."

 

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10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@The Grey Wolf

I don't think Aegon cares about the things Elia has to offer. She is a young tomboy girl who is making out with stable boys. We have no clue that he is into that type of girl. But if he was he is going to take what is offered and discard her later on. Prince Aegon isn't Robb Stark, after all. He is not stupid. And there is no chance that Elia, Connington, or Arianne would support Aegon's weird decision of a bride. Elia should be very aware that Aegon marrying her instead of Arianne isn't going to win him the loyalty of Dorne. Neither Arianne nor Doran would be happy with that.

 

Um...Isn't that what I wrote?

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2 hours ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

Maar's existence kinda serve to define and characterise both Jon and Arianne better and contrast them with Dany. Jon not only thinks he's an oddball but he also comments how Varys isn't a "man" because he's an eunuch. And Arianne feeling disgusted by Maar is the opposite of Dany who feels very attracted by Daario, who isn't different. Dany also sees her Unsullied as people, and Jon think less of them.

 

I think Aegon is a virgin. I mean, Duck and Haldon made it sound like Griff has a very strict policy of celibacy in their group. I'm sure there is no coincidence that when Tyrion said he would want to go to a brothel, Duck says "the lad would want to go". I'm not saying that Aegon is desperate to have sex, but if you put a horny teen next to another horny teen... that won't end up well.

 

Always worked out for me! (I am going to lock my kids in their closets.)

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4 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

(I am going to lock my kids in their closets.)

Isn't that where we are supposed to keep them for noise reduction?

Edited by DarkSister1001

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2 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

It's possible, I guess for me I just assume their body type is much different.  If Dario is really a great warrior he should have broad shoulders and a narrow waist, where I picture Mar as a Mcjagger type build where he could conceivably be confused for a woman.  But someone with broad shoulders wearing a dirk and stiletto is probably unmistakably a guy.

Renly's Rose is a great warrior with a slender build. And aren't several dragons (Daemon Blackfyre, Jon Snow) described as lithe? 

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2 hours ago, The Scabbard Of the Morning said:

I don't know why the focus is on whether Arianne would marry Aegon, I think the much bigger unknown is whether Aegon would marry Arriane.

Aegon and Connington knows about Dany and her dragons, and that eventually she's coming to Westeros, why would he marry Arrianne instead of waiting for Dany instead of setting up the chances for another Dance of Dragons.

Oh, because he needs the Martells, you say. Sure, he does, but where are the Martells going, are they going to back the Lannisters? Of course not, and is there not something else he can offer Dorne?  Myrcella is the heir to both Casterly Rock and the Stormlands.  Aegon could just offer to promise both the Westerlands and the Stormlands to Trystane through his marriage to Myrcella.  Doran is going to turn that down?

 

We got a hint as to which way the wind blows back in The Griffin Reborn. Jon Connington wants to keep Aegon's hand free to wed Daenerys. Haldon believes Jon should wed Arianne. Of course, Jon will have to refuse, which could, and I'm just spit balling here, but could cause Jon to be outed--no, not for that, for having greyscale. And that could open the door for He-may-well-be-a-Targaryen-after-all Aegon to dump his hand for a friend from the Reach, say the finest soldier in the realm? 

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On 11-5-2016 at 0:48 PM, Lord Varys said:

A general question:

How likely do you guys think is the possibility that Arianne is going to meet Nymeria, Myrcella, and her party at Storm's End. We learned in that chapter that they took the Boneway and crossed the Stormlands so the chances that they walked right into the clutches of the Golden Company are pretty big, actually. And thanks to Kevan not mentioning any of that to Mace of Cersei (that Myrcella was coming with Nymeria to KL) the Tyrells have no clue about that at all.

 

On 11-5-2016 at 10:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

No ideas/thoughts on the Lady Nym/Tyene/Myrcella matter? Are they going to slip past the Golden Company or will Arianne meet them as 'guests' in Storm's End. They are taking the Boneway and the Kingsroad which means they are going to pass Storm's End directly. And nothing suggests that they were told about the Golden Company invasion in time.

I'd assume that Connington would have send his letter to Doran as quickly as was possible. In addition, he was planning to march on the eleventh day for Storm's End.

While we don't know how long it took for the message to arrive in Sunspear, or how much time passes between that message arriving and Arianne leaving Sunspear. Arianne's own travels to not appear to take long. We see her cover 3 days in Arianne I, and after 2 days passing in Arianne II (with it being left unknown how long the trip from Ghost Hill to the Weeping Town took), Arianne thinks to herself that it is possible that Nym had already reached KL. That makes it sound as if Nym had a very large head-start, especially considering that it is a bit unlikely that Doran would wait long until sending Arianne in response to Connington's letter. In the ADWD epilogue, KL knows that Connington is moving towards SE. They begin making preparations for Myrcella, which might imply that they know she's almost at her destination.

Thus, at the moment I don't think it is likely that Nym/Tyene/Myrcella would have come face to face with the GC.

 

The Small Council is aware of Myrcella being on her way to KL.. But there definitly will be some sort of consequence to Kevan not having informed them yet about the fact that Nymeria is coming as well... And is supposed to get a seat on the small council.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But what is the purpose of Belwas, then? Why did he survive? Illyrio is not stupid and having a secret dagger at the throat of a potential is the kind of thing he would do. Perhaps Belwas doesn't even need a note. The guy might be more than he seems, or else Illyrio would never have trusted him with this mission. He might not even need an order to act but might decide to kill Dany as soon as he realizes she has become a threat to Aegon.

Lysono and Daario are very different, actually. Daario is a very manly man. He is more than a little bit flamboyant but the society he lives in and has grown up sees his type of behavior as manly. Daario is, after all, a very capable fighter.

Lysono Maar on the other hand looks and behaves like a woman. He does nothing to appear more manly (say, grow himself a beard) but instead highlights his feminine features by painting his finger nails (like a woman) and wearing all those earrings (like a woman). Unless we assume for no good reason that this all is an act there is a pretty good chance that Lysono likes playing the role of woman and even gets off on that. That more or less fits the definition of a transvestite.

I'm not sure whether Jon Connington is a closeted homosexual (there are subtle hints that he and Myles Toyne might have been lovers or had an affair) but he really isn't all that open about it. Lysono Maar most likely isn't into women, either, but Connington clearly has big problems with this kind of gay people. Those people exist in Westeros, too. Laenor Velaryon also was the effeminate gay guy, not caring about manly stuff but having a thing for handsome manly men (just as Rhaenyra did). Prince Daeron the Gay and his lover/partner on the other don't seem to have any particularly colorful tastes. They were both knights and into manly stuff, perhaps in a similar way as Renly and Loras were.

Varys, on the other hand, is an actor. Playing the role of woman most likely is the same thing for him as playing the role of the effeminate eunuch (which clearly is an act, too).

There is some truth to this, but the whole secret betrothal to Viserys has set Arianne's mind into motion. The wheels are turning and she is thinking about how the Quentyn-Dany thing might cost her what she once was supposed to have.

I agree that Young Griff most likely wouldn't have impressed Arianne all that much. But Prince Aegon Targaryen might. Aegon isn't featured all that much directly in the ADwD chapters dealing with him. That might change when we'll see him finally through the eyes of a woman. Tyrion thinks he looks like a maiden's dream, and if she sees him doing stuff of the sort she would expect from Oberyn or Darkstar she certainly would like that. Not to mention that Aegon actually is a very smart young man who should be able to be a very interesting person to talk to.

An idea that I've always entertained is that Myrcella might become Aegon's first queen. If they capture her and Lady Nym on their way to KL, then they cannot only use her as a hostage but as political tool. If Aegon marries Myrcella then only Tommen stands between them and the Iron Throne, and that obstacle is easily removed. As Aegon's queen Myrcella is likely to live as long as Jaehaera Targaryen, though.

It is correct that Arianne and Aegon should not have to marry - but it is still a pretty likely scenario that they will once they learn about Dany's alleged death. Assuming they have a thing for each other. If not, then there is no need for such a political marriage.

Belwas existed to shit on Pahl and to save Daenerys from honeyed locusts and to give The George an excuse to make a character talk like Cookie Monster. 

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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1 hour ago, DarkSister1001 said:

 

Yeah, but that was when the Rose opposed the Lion, and the Kingslayer was thought by many to be one of the most dangerous men in all the realm. That doesn't necessarily suggest that Rowan is a Targaryen sympathizer. 

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25 minutes ago, DarkSister1001 said:

Isn't that where we are supposed to keep them for noise reduction?

Once again I am awed by your parenting techniques. Seriously, I am taking notes!

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16 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yeah, but that was when the Rose opposed the Lion, and the Kingslayer was thought by many to be one of the most dangerous men in all the realm. That doesn't necessarily suggest that Rowan is a Targaryen sympathizer. 

I actually just got a fancy schmancy upgrade that will actually let me use asearchoficeandfire so whether or not I'm involved or up to speed in the conversation means precisely zip at the moment.  Just flaunting my new toy.  :) 

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Once again I am awed by your parenting techniques. Seriously, I am taking notes!

Disclaimer - may cause extensive therapy.

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35 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

 

I'd assume that Connington would have send his letter to Doran as quickly as was possible. In addition, he was planning to march on the eleventh day for Storm's End.

While we don't know how long it took for the message to arrive in Sunspear, or how much time passes between that message arriving and Arianne leaving Sunspear. Arianne's own travels to not appear to take long. We see her cover 3 days in Arianne I, and after 2 days passing in Arianne II (with it being left unknown how long the trip from Ghost Hill to the Weeping Town took), Arianne thinks to herself that it is possible that Nym had already reached KL. That makes it sound as if Nym had a very large head-start, especially considering that it is a bit unlikely that Doran would wait long until sending Arianne in response to Connington's letter. In the ADWD epilogue, KL knows that Connington is moving towards SE. They begin making preparations for Myrcella, which might imply that they know she's almost at her destination.

Thus, at the moment I don't think it is likely that Nym/Tyene/Myrcella would have come face to face with the GC.

 

The Small Council is aware of Myrcella being on her way to KL.. But there definitly will be some sort of consequence to Kevan not having informed them yet about the fact that Nymeria is coming as well... And is supposed to get a seat on the small council.

Hm. But we don't know how long it takes you to cross the mountains via the Boneway. That could slow things down. Arianne and company just go to the coast of the Sea of Dorne and travel to the Stormlands via ship. Nym and Myrcella would have crossed the Sands of Dorne to reach the Boneway and then climb up into the Stormlands. Presumably the Golden Company landed after Nym had already passed the Dornish host there or else Doran would have been able to reach them via letter and tell them to circumvent Storm's End and the Kingswood. 

But we know from Arianne 2 that this is not the case. And we also know that Arianne is surprised by the news that Aegon and his allies intend to take Storm's End. 

Storm's End is not exactly far away from KL, either, so Nym being close to KL already when the Golden Company landed does not necessarily put them out of the reach. If Connington or other captains learned that Myrcella Baratheon was in the vicinity they certainly would have looked for her immediately. And stuff like that might have happened in the Stormlands after 'The Griffin Reborn'.

Kevan not telling the Small Council about Lady Nyn (and her Dornish escort) suggests that he does not expect her to show up immediately. The Small Council is supposed to meet again after Cersei's trial, in five days. That does not suggest that there is any urgency there. They decide to make preparations for Myrcella's arrival but there is also no urgency there.

General stuff:

After rereading the conversations in the Epilogue I've changed my mind on Mace. He actually states that he'll deal with Jon Connington. But specifically says after the trials. If he does not change his mind on anything after Kevan's death (which is unlikely) then he seems to actually intending in the Epilogue to personally deal with the Golden Company (meaning that he intended to command the army). This is not completely certain, of course, because Mace stating 'I intend to do just that' could also mean he will see to it that this is done (by dispatching Tarly) rather than doing it himself.

And I really interpret both Mace's and Tarly's loudly uttered doubts about Connington, the Golden Company, and the identity of Aegon as political moves to put even more pressure on Kevan. They know that Kevan/Tommen need the Tyrell army, but they are not willing to deal with this new threat (which they do not yet consider to be a big threat) as long as their demands are not met and they don't get what they want. And this includes more power and control at court, the acquittal of Margaery, and the neutralization of Cersei. It is pretty clear that only Kevan is keeping this alliance together. Without him the Tyrells will take what they want in KL and perhaps even begin removing their enemies by force. Unless Cersei can get herself out of this whole situation soon Mace Tyrell might decide to kill her. The man must know what this woman tried to do to his daughter.

But Kevan and Pycelle's death is going to change the power dynamics and the capital quite severely. While Kevan was still alive Mace as Hand (and Tarly as his vassal) could easily have left KL to leave the governance of the Realm in the hands of Kevan and Pycelle. That is no longer an option. One of them will have to remain behind. And my gut feeling is that Mace is going to be that guy because he'll not allow that anything happens to his darling daughter in his absence. The man marched his entire army back to the city when Margaery was arrested, after all. He did not only command Tarly to go to KL with his army, they both came.

Kevan's assessment of the situation with the Faith is that not allowing the Faith to conduct their trial against Margaery will lead to fighting with the sparrows. If he is correct there, and if Mace changes his mind on the trial against Margaery - which is not unlikely - then he'll most likely not be in any position to leave the city without fearing that the sparrows might do more than a little bit of mischief in his absence.

The news about the fall of Storm's End should also have some impact on both Mace and Tarly. We don't know what Mace thinks of Tarly, but one assumes he knows the man is good general. It would be wise to give Tarly command of the army marching against the Golden Company. And Tarly most certainly would urge Mace to give him the command rather than take it himself and command Tarly to remain behind in the city to keep the peace there.

@Lost Melnibonean

Belwas can do all that, and serve as an assassin. Those two things are not mutually exclusive. And nobody will see that coming.

Edited by Lord Varys

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1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Hm. But we don't know how long it takes you to cross the mountains via the Boneway. That could slow things down. Arianne and company just go to the coast of the Sea of Dorne and travel to the Stormlands via ship. Nym and Myrcella would have crossed the Sands of Dorne to reach the Boneway and then climb up into the Stormlands. Presumably the Golden Company landed after Nym had already passed the Dornish host there or else Doran would have been able to reach them via letter and tell them to circumvent Storm's End and the Kingswood. 

But we know from Arianne 2 that this is not the case. And we also know that Arianne is surprised by the news that Aegon and his allies intend to take Storm's End. 

Storm's End is not exactly far away from KL, either, so Nym being close to KL already when the Golden Company landed does not necessarily put them out of the reach. If Connington or other captains learned that Myrcella Baratheon was in the vicinity they certainly would have looked for her immediately. And stuff like that might have happened in the Stormlands after 'The Griffin Reborn'.

Kevan not telling the Small Council about Lady Nyn (and her Dornish escort) suggests that he does not expect her to show up immediately. The Small Council is supposed to meet again after Cersei's trial, in five days. That does not suggest that there is any urgency there. They decide to make preparations for Myrcella's arrival but there is also no urgency there.

Of course, travling through the mountains will be slower.

The directions the two groups are travelling in are quite different as well. Nym is traveling the Kingsroad from the south, Connington is approaching SE from Griffin's Roost. SE itself would be where the two groups could meet, but would Nym pass SE? She will travel on the Kingsroad, of course, but looking at a map, if she travels past the ruins of summerhal, assuming she's following the mountain pass, she's more likely to reach the Kingsroad at the height of Bronzegate. Why turn south, just to pass SE? 

It is possible, of course. Outriders might have spotted the Dornish escort. Would they approach, though? They want Dorne's support, but demanding Myrcella might sooner lead to a fight, and fighting a group of Dornish under the command of Prince Doran is not the best way of winning Doran's support for your case.

Kevan not having told the counsil about Nym doesn't mean much about how much longer it is until they arrive. He could even decide to tell them the morning before she arrives, if he had wanted to (and hadn't died before). I think it is clear he wants to wait as long as he possibly can before breaking that news to Mace.

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I wonder how the fact that the Tyrell army is marching ties into the Mercy chapter and the whole "the queen will have our heads" chronologically. From what it seems to me at least Arianne II seems to take place after Kevan and Pycelle's murder as well as both queens' trials and possibly concurrent with the Mercy chapter.

Edited by The Grey Wolf

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Belwas existed to shit on Pahl and to save Daenerys from honeyed locusts and to give The George an excuse to make a character talk like Cookie Monster. 

Thank you for that.

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The rumor about Jon raping Red Ronnet's sister and killed his brother is a lie, right? The rape most certainly didn't happen and I dont recall Jon saying he lost a relative in the fighting 

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36 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

I wonder how the fact that the Tyrell army is marching ties into the Mercy chapter and the whole "the queen will have our heads" chronologically. From what it seems to me at least Arianne II seems to take place after Kevan and Pycelle's murder as well as both queens' trials and possibly concurrent with the Mercy chapter.

That doesn't tie together at all. We know that the Mercy chapter is a very old chapter, originally conceived as the first Arya chapter after the scrapped five year gap. In that setting Cersei would have still been Queen Regent, at the peak of her power. George presumably released a version of the chapter which does not yet include the changes that were (or will be) made to fit the chapter into the new setting to not spoil the coming events in KL for us.

The Epilogue did not give us Harys Swyft leaving KL, and neither had he hired Gregor's men yet. He certainly didn't leave for Braavos before Kevan's corpse was found, and we have no idea how that will affect the political situation in Westeros. Swyft most likely not be sent to Braavos by 'the queen' but rather by 'the Hand (i.e. Mace)' or even 'the new Lord Regent' (also Mace), fearing he might be beheaded by Mace Tyrell and not 'the queen' if returns empty-handed.

There might even be needs to make adjustments to Swyft's overall state of mind. The man Arya oversees isn't happy but pretty content with his situation and the fact that he is away from court, but Kevan Lannister is actually Harys Swyft's son-in-law, and Kevan apparently loved his wife Dorna Swyft pretty much (his last thoughts are about her, after all). Swyft should be grief-stricken and afraid because of Kevan's death, and be very afraid that Tyrells (whom he most likely would blame for Kevan's death) might kill him, too.

Raff and the other guardsmen would also be likely to speak about recent events in the city (i.e. Cersei's walk and/or her trial-by-combat if they witnessed that). As I've mentioned above the plan in the Epilogue is to have the trial-by-combat a few days in the future, so technically Swyft could be dispatched to Braavos before the trial (because Kevan/Pycelle most likely will be find either in the very night of the Epilogue or early on the next morning). In fact, I think that is very likely considering that Mace and Tarly most likely will jump on the chance to rid the Small Council of the last Lannister crony, and Swyft was already supposed to go to Braavos as by Kevan's decision, so could not really argue against that (and might then actually be glad to get out of the castle in which assassins had just murdered his son-in-law).

30 minutes ago, RoamingRonin said:

The rumor about Jon raping Red Ronnet's sister and killed his brother is a lie, right? The rape most certainly didn't happen and I dont recall Jon saying he lost a relative in the fighting 

It is certainly a rumor and not true. Whether it is a deliberate lie is difficult to say. Probably the kind of story that is inevitably cooked up when people think too much about what happens when a gang of evil sellswords from a foreign land capture a castle in the neighborhood.

But apparently more people are pro-Connington than anti-Connington in the Weeping Town. No idea whether we can trust @Werthead, though. But then, I don't see him outmaneuvering Lysono Maar. But jokes aside, the fact that the Stormlanders in the vicinity seem to be willing to join the Golden Company without being drafted makes Aegon's campaign look very promising indeed. At this time he hasn't even done all that much. One can only guess what effects the news about Storm's End and the victory over the Tyrell army (if that's going to happen) will have.

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11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No idea whether we can trust @Werthead, though. One can only guess what effects the news about Storm's End and the victory over the Tyrell army (if that's going to happen) will have.

Didn't know the Mercy chapter was from before the 5-year gap was scrapped.

As for House Whitehead I'm suspicious. Stormlanders seem as mercurial in their loyalty as their land is in its weather.

As for what effect the first-ever Fall of Storm's End is going to have....Dramatic of course!!!!

Edited by The Grey Wolf

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