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[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

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wow thanks everyone especially  SeanF and Lord Varys but also everyone !!!! that's a great wonderful analysis !!!!!! 

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The discussion about Cersei trying to flee King's Landing with Tommen reminds me of Tyrion's actions in A Clash of Kings. Cersei had Boros Blount take a disguised Tommen to Rosby to keep him safe should the city fall to Stannis, but Tyrion's men intercepted their party. We knew Tyrion didn't want any harm to come to Tommen, but Cersei thought otherwise, and then a frustrated Tyrion chose to play on her fears. I wonder how this will effect Cersei's decisions, especially if she suspects Tyrion is still loose in the castle killing people. Of course, this time she has Ser Robert Strong in her corner. 

 

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10 hours ago, Liver and Onions said:

The discussion about Cersei trying to flee King's Landing with Tommen reminds me of Tyrion's actions in A Clash of Kings. Cersei had Boros Blount take a disguised Tommen to Rosby to keep him safe should the city fall to Stannis, but Tyrion's men intercepted their party. We knew Tyrion didn't want any harm to come to Tommen, but Cersei thought otherwise, and then a frustrated Tyrion chose to play on her fears. I wonder how this will effect Cersei's decisions, especially if she suspects Tyrion is still loose in the castle killing people. Of course, this time she has Ser Robert Strong in her corner. 

If Cersei decides to flee, she has to go by ship, I think. The Riverlands are far to dangerous, not to mention that Mace has more than enough men to pursue her. Her escape can't remain a secret for long, after all.

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In my view Euron's purpose is to serve as a distraction for the Tyrells. He is going to ravage the Western Reach with his 20,000 Reavers, burning some settlements, razing some towns and tying up probably 30k Reach troops or so.

I see Aegon achieving a decisive victory over the Tyrells at Storm's End. That will be what brings Dorne to his cause. After that, I feel there is a need for another great victory - this time involving Dornish forces - over the Royal armies, before Aegon takes King's Landing.

An interesting question, I guess, is whether the entire Dragonhorn sub-plot was just a waste of time - which would mean that Euron is a delusional idiot for even attempting to take the Iron Throne - or whether the Horn has already been bound to Euron and will summon Viserion or Rhaegal to his side when it is sounded. Perhaps even both.

If he has a dragon (or two), I guess the nature of the threat he poses changes somewhat. If he doesn't get a dragon, well, then his plot becomes rather ridiculous, doesn't it.

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6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Cersei decides to flee, she has to go by ship, I think. The Riverlands are far to dangerous, not to mention that Mace has more than enough men to pursue her. Her escape can't remain a secret for long, after all.

But Cersei knows that the Reach is being raided by the Ironborn. Surely she wouldn't risk travelling through that battle zone? Unless you are speculating that she flees after Euron is defeated? 

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3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In my view Euron's purpose is to serve as a distraction for the Tyrells. He is going to ravage the Western Reach with his 20,000 Reavers, burning some settlements, razing some towns and tying up probably 30k Reach troops or so.

I see Aegon achieving a decisive victory over the Tyrells at Storm's End. That will be what brings Dorne to his cause. After that, I feel there is a need for another great victory - this time involving Dornish forces - over the Royal armies, before Aegon takes King's Landing.

An interesting question, I guess, is whether the entire Dragonhorn sub-plot was just a waste of time - which would mean that Euron is a delusional idiot for even attempting to take the Iron Throne - or whether the Horn has already been bound to Euron and will summon Viserion or Rhaegal to his side when it is sounded. Perhaps even both.

If he has a dragon (or two), I guess the nature of the threat he poses changes somewhat. If he doesn't get a dragon, well, then his plot becomes rather ridiculous, doesn't it.

The hints towards Euron set him up as the major antagonist of the second part of the series. The man has sorcerers at his disposal, he has really great ambitions, and possibly himself magical talents (skinchanging/greenseeing if the parallels to Bran aren't a coincidence - which is very unlikely).

Then there is Moqorro's hint that Euron - not Victarion! - is the biggest threat/enemy of Daenerys. Dragonbinder might be part of that, but the other part of that might be a vision of the future - Euron Greyjoy as the scourge of Westeros by the time Dany finally arrives.

The idea that Euron could only become a big threat with a dragon - which he most likely won't get now that Moqorro has intervened - doesn't make much sense. The idea that Dragonbinder could cause a dragon to fly thousands of leagues to a new master is pretty far-fetched in any scenario. The only way how Euron could claim a dragon is, I think, if he traveled incognito with Victarion to Slaver's Bay. But that's not all that likely.

Westeros is weakened right now. If Euron can crush the Redwyne fleet the southern parts of the Reach will eventually bent the knee to him. If he can make an alliance with Aurane Waters and other pirates he might even have the strength to attack KL. In any case, if the Redwynes are gone the Sunset Sea and Summer Sea close to Westeros is his.

To take the Iron Throne he would need allies he could trust and work with, though.

42 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

But Cersei knows that the Reach is being raided by the Ironborn. Surely she wouldn't risk travelling through that battle zone? Unless you are speculating that she flees after Euron is defeated? 

Well, my guess is that Cersei will eventually end up with Euron. They are the ideal pair to wreak really havoc in Westeros and become a threat for the entire continent if they decide team up and begin a crusade of destruction. Qyburn and Pyat Pree most likely would also gladly exchange notes on certain things.

I'm not sure Cersei has a clear picture what's going on in the South and if she is fleeing the Tyrells then going by ship is the best way to do so. And, who knows? Perhaps she is not going to flee exactly but trying to get to Euron to offer an alliance. The man certainly could need the wealth of Casterly Rock for his campaign. And there has to be an innate narrative reason why the hell Euron chose to attack the Reach rather than the West. Lannisport was a lot closer, after all. And by the time Euron struck Tywin was already dead.

But I guess such an alliance would only make sense from Cersei's POV if both Tommen and Myrcella are already dead. So it might take still some time - if we assume the idea is correct. But if George wants Cersei to remain a player in the game then she has to make some sort of alliance. And Euron can no longer hope to team up with Dany. She is not going to come soon.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The hints towards Euron set him up as the major antagonist of the second part of the series. The man has sorcerers at his disposal, he has really great ambitions, and possibly himself magical talents (skinchanging/greenseeing if the parallels to Bran aren't a coincidence - which is very unlikely).

Then there is Moqorro's hint that Euron - not Victarion! - is the biggest threat/enemy of Daenerys. Dragonbinder might be part of that, but the other part of that might be a vision of the future - Euron Greyjoy as the scourge of Westeros by the time Dany finally arrives.

The idea that Euron could only become a big threat with a dragon - which he most likely won't get now that Moqorro has intervened - doesn't make much sense. The idea that Dragonbinder could cause a dragon to fly thousands of leagues to a new master is pretty far-fetched in any scenario. The only way how Euron could claim a dragon is, I think, if he traveled incognito with Victarion to Slaver's Bay. But that's not all that likely.

Westeros is weakened right now. If Euron can crush the Redwyne fleet the southern parts of the Reach will eventually bent the knee to him. If he can make an alliance with Aurane Waters and other pirates he might even have the strength to attack KL. In any case, if the Redwynes are gone the Sunset Sea and Summer Sea close to Westeros is his.

To take the Iron Throne he would need allies he could trust and work with, though.

Well, my guess is that Cersei will eventually end up with Euron. They are the ideal pair to wreak really havoc in Westeros and become a threat for the entire continent if they decide team up and begin a crusade of destruction. Qyburn and Pyat Pree most likely would also gladly exchange notes on certain things.

I'm not sure Cersei has a clear picture what's going on in the South and if she is fleeing the Tyrells then going by ship is the best way to do so. And, who knows? Perhaps she is not going to flee exactly but trying to get to Euron to offer an alliance. The man certainly could need the wealth of Casterly Rock for his campaign. And there has to be an innate narrative reason why the hell Euron chose to attack the Reach rather than the West. Lannisport was a lot closer, after all. And by the time Euron struck Tywin was already dead.

But I guess such an alliance would only make sense from Cersei's POV if both Tommen and Myrcella are already dead. So it might take still some time - if we assume the idea is correct. But if George wants Cersei to remain a player in the game then she has to make some sort of alliance. And Euron can no longer hope to team up with Dany. She is not going to come soon.

Lord Varys

I agree that Euron is set up as a major villain of the 2nd half of the series. But I am interested to hear just how powerful you think he is. His entire pitch to the Ironborn at the Kingsmoot is based on the Dragonhorn and the mastery of dragons.

In terms of manpower, I was being generous when I ascribed 20k men to his forces in the Reach. In truth, the entire Ironborn strength is around 25k by the maximum estimates around, although I believe Ran puts them closer to 20k. But these Ironborn have already suffered some losses in the North - even if it is only a couple thousand men or so, every campaign comes with losses to disease, battle, storms at sea etc.

So call it 23000 men left, that gathered at the Kingsmoot after the Northern campaign. From there, the entire Ironfleet was dispatched to Meereen. That's their 100 largest ships. Each likely carrying at least 100 men. So that's 10000 of the 23000 men off to Meereen - of which half were scattered to the four corners of the earth by storms along the way.

If Euron is lucky, he has maybe 13000 men in the Reach. But likely it is closer to 10000 in my view. Lord Hightower on his own can raise more men than that. If Euron doesn't have dragons, he is only going to be a nuisance - and a temporary one at that - to the Lords of the Reach. Sure, a surprise attack might cause some serious havoc, as would a series of multiple small scale raids along the coast.

But even if he takes a few keeps, it is simply not feasible to think that Reach lords are going to swear allegiance to his pitiful force en masse. And who is seriously going to form an allegiance with him? He is not even a powerful ally, going by Westerosi standards. Any of the Kingdoms could raise more men than him, even at this late point in the story.

As for the Redwynne fleet. It is more powerful than the Royal fleet. And without the Iron Fleet I seriously doubt Euron has a chance of defeating it. He has only tiny 20-30 man ships left, with the Iron Fleet off in Meereen. And even if he DOES defeat the Redwynne fleet. So what? It still leaves him woefully underpowered on land.

Euron needs dragons, or else he is a non-entity in the bigger scheme of things.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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@Free Northman Reborn

I've no idea how many men the Ironborn have, actually. I'm fine with 20,000, I guess.

Vic could only have had 5,000-7,000 if we go with an average of 50-70 men per ship. I don't have any idea how many men you need to man one of the Iron Fleet's ship, either.

The important factor will be who ends up controlling the sea. Right now that's Euron. I agree that conventional warfare and odds suggest that Paxter should win but I think Euron will magically rig the odds in his favor. Say, by having his warlocks conjure up a storm or tornado that obliterates the entire Redwyne fleet. We know Melisandre could create a wind to carry Stannis' fleet quickly to Eastwatch so I think a group of Qartheen warlocks whose magics get stronger and stronger every day might be to create a much bigger storm.

Thereafter the Reach men will essentially be helpless. Euron will be able to move quickly and strike suddenly wherever he wants. Oldtown will bend the knee not because it has been defeated or taken but because its wealth is based on free trade - something that won't be possible if Euron attacks every ship trying to get to or leaving Oldtown. The Oldtown merchants (and the Hightowers themselves) should care much more about their profits than their overlords.

I'm not sure what immediate help a dragon would be for Euron. The man is Ironborn, not a Targaryen. Him being a dragonrider certainly will impress some people but this doesn't mean he suddenly has a legal claim to the Iron Throne. And neither of Dany's dragons will give him the power to burn armies, cities, or castles to the ground.

Euron's plan was to marry Daenerys and subsequently become a dragonrider as the consort of a dragonriding queen. With the help of Dany he hoped he could win the Iron Throne because she had a legal claim to it as well as a decent chance to win the support of many remaining Targaryen loyalists.

But magic, gold, Cersei, and schemes could still get him pretty far even without Dany. Not to mention that we only know parts of his plan. That he actually has Qartheen warlocks in his service he didn't reveal yet in the series. There was just a vague hint in that direction. He might have other plans we have yet no idea about.

Edited by Lord Varys

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7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

I've no idea how many men the Ironborn have, actually. I'm fine with 20,000 I guess.

Vic could only have had 5,000-7,000 if we go with an average of 50-70 men per ship. I don't have any idea how many men you need to man one of the Iron Fleet's ship, either.

The important factor will be who ends up controlling the sea. Right now that's Euron. I agree that conventional warfare and odds suggest that Paxter should win but I think Euron will magically rig the odds in his favor. Say, by having his warlocks conjure up a storm or tornado that obliterates the entire Redwyne fleet. We know Melisandre could create a wind to carry Stannis' fleet quickly to Eastwatch so I think a group of Qartheen warlocks whose magics get stronger and stronger might be to create a much bigger storm.

Thereafter the Reach men will essentially be helpless. Euron will be able to move quickly and strike suddenly wherever he wants. Oldtown will bend the knee not because it has been defeated or taken but because its wealth is based on free trade - something that won't be possible if Euron attacks every ship trying to get or leaving Oldtown. The Oldtown merchants (and the Hightowers themselves) should care much more about their profits than their overlords.

I'm not sure what immediate help a dragon would be for Euron. The man is Ironborn, not a Targaryen. Him being a dragonrider certainly will impress some people but this doesn't mean he suddenly has a legal claim to the Iron Throne. And neither of Dany's dragons will give he the power to burn armies, cities, or castles to the ground.

Euron's plan was to marry Daenerys and subsequently become a dragonrider as the consort of a dragonriding queen. With the help of Dany he hoped he could win the Iron Throne because she had a legal to it as well as a decent chance to win the support of many remaining Targaryen loyalists.

But magic, gold, Cersei, and schemes could still get him pretty far even without Dany. Not to mention that we only know parts of his plan. That he actually has Qartheen warlocks in his service he didn't reveal yet in the series. There was just a vague hint in that direction. He might have other plans we have yet no idea about.

Interesting. Martin must have more in store for him, else his entire plotline was a monumental farce. I must say, your Cersei theory has one thing going for it. If Cersei marries Euron, then Victarrion could end up being the Valonquar. And we know how badly Victarrion wants to kill the wife of his big brother Euron. Didn't he choke the life out of his own wife, after she slept with Euron, as much as it pained him?

Pretty much exactly the fate prophecied for Cersei, isn't it?

But then, that would go against so much of what we expect to happen - such as "dumb as a stump" Victarrion dying a fiery death in the near future.

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9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Interesting. Martin must have more in store for him, else his entire plotline was a monumental farce. I must say, your Cersei theory has one thing going for it. If Cersei marries Euron, then Victarrion could end up being the Valonquar. And we know how badly Victarrion wants to kill the wife of his big brother Euron. Didn't he choke the life out of his own wife, after she slept with Euron, as much as it pained him?

Pretty much exactly the fate prophecied for Cersei, isn't it?

But then, that would go against so much of what we expect to happen - such as "dumb as a stump" Victarrion dying a fiery death in the near future.

I'm pretty sure either Tyrion or Jaime will kill Cersei. If the whole stuff actually refers to her literally dying and not something else. What was the exact phrasing? 'Choking the life out of her' or something like that? That could have some figurative meaning, too. Say, some actions which completely unmake everything she has ever dreamed of accomplishing.

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I reeeaaally like Cersei/Euron and Victarion as Valonqar - FINALLY explains 'when your tears have drowned you', i.e. Cersei embraces the Ironborn, possibly their religion but definitely their king, in her desperation. That'll teach her to reject the 'old squid'!

In this interpretation could Brienne be the younger beauty and get Jaime happily?!

 

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14 hours ago, Slender Aimry Hill said:

I reeeaaally like Cersei/Euron and Victarion as Valonqar - FINALLY explains 'when your tears have drowned you', i.e. Cersei embraces the Ironborn, possibly their religion but definitely their king, in her desperation. That'll teach her to reject the 'old squid'!

In this interpretation could Brienne be the younger beauty and get Jaime happily?!

 

Ooh, interesting interpretation for Brienne. I'd have to check the wording of the prophecy, but I think it says that the younger person takes all she holds dear. I'm fairly sure the standing (ie. queen) of the person is not specified, nor the gender for that matter. (Loras is in her house, stealing her stuff!)

 

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

I've no idea how many men the Ironborn have, actually. I'm fine with 20,000, I guess.

Vic could only have had 5,000-7,000 if we go with an average of 50-70 men per ship. I don't have any idea how many men you need to man one of the Iron Fleet's ship, either.

The important factor will be who ends up controlling the sea. Right now that's Euron. I agree that conventional warfare and odds suggest that Paxter should win but I think Euron will magically rig the odds in his favor. Say, by having his warlocks conjure up a storm or tornado that obliterates the entire Redwyne fleet. We know Melisandre could create a wind to carry Stannis' fleet quickly to Eastwatch so I think a group of Qartheen warlocks whose magics get stronger and stronger every day might be to create a much bigger storm.

Thereafter the Reach men will essentially be helpless. Euron will be able to move quickly and strike suddenly wherever he wants. Oldtown will bend the knee not because it has been defeated or taken but because its wealth is based on free trade - something that won't be possible if Euron attacks every ship trying to get to or leaving Oldtown. The Oldtown merchants (and the Hightowers themselves) should care much more about their profits than their overlords.

I'm not sure what immediate help a dragon would be for Euron. The man is Ironborn, not a Targaryen. Him being a dragonrider certainly will impress some people but this doesn't mean he suddenly has a legal claim to the Iron Throne. And neither of Dany's dragons will give him the power to burn armies, cities, or castles to the ground.

Euron's plan was to marry Daenerys and subsequently become a dragonrider as the consort of a dragonriding queen. With the help of Dany he hoped he could win the Iron Throne because she had a legal claim to it as well as a decent chance to win the support of many remaining Targaryen loyalists.

But magic, gold, Cersei, and schemes could still get him pretty far even without Dany. Not to mention that we only know parts of his plan. That he actually has Qartheen warlocks in his service he didn't reveal yet in the series. There was just a vague hint in that direction. He might have other plans we have yet no idea about.

 

Cersei and Euron would be pretty terrifying. I can't see Dany joining up with him, at least not willingly, but Cersei might be desperate enough. Euron seems to be rather charismatic, and if he promises Cersei revenge against those who have wronged her, she might choose him as a new ally. 

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Nah, Cercei is toast, she's played her final card - in the books as well as the show.

What I want to see is Arya sorting out her list by taking on the face of Jaime Lannister and assassinating Cercei. She could even welcome him as the Valonqar in her final moments if you like!

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i just wanted to thank all the people contributing to this post. It really helped me appreciate the recent Arianne chapter so much more. So, again, thanks for all the great insight, as well as a few chuckles at some of the more extreme batshit insane theories.

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On 5/20/2016 at 10:26 PM, House Cambodia said:

Nah, Cercei is toast, she's played her final card - in the books as well as the show.

What I want to see is Arya sorting out her list by taking on the face of Jaime Lannister and assassinating Cercei. She could even welcome him as the Valonqar in her final moments if you like!

The Faceless Men can only teach Arya how to change her face, not her entire physique. An 11-year old girl with Jaime's face would not be convincing. It's far more believable for Arya to take Tommen's face to kill Cersei. And considering that the entire Valonqar prophecy was in response to Cersei's question about her children, it's also a lot more consistent.

By the way, it's nice to see someone else from Asia.

Hey, I've got an idea. How about someone have something to say about "The new Daenerys Targaryen"?!! 

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39 minutes ago, Victarion Chainbreaker said:

The Faceless Men can only teach Arya how to change her face, not her entire physique. An 11-year old girl with Jaime's face would not be convincing. It's far more believable for Arya to take Tommen's face to kill Cersei. And considering that the entire Valonqar prophecy was in response to Cersei's question about her children, it's also a lot more consistent.

By the way, it's nice to see someone else from Asia.

Hey, I've got an idea. How about someone have something to say about "The new Daenerys Targaryen"?!! 

Good call on fTommen there. Actually, I bloody love it!!!

There was me thinking YiTi was a made-up place ;)

I've said LOADS on the new DT, upsetting a few posters along the way!

 

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On 5/18/2016 at 6:09 PM, Arrow of the Morning said:

One thing that called my attention is the number of rumors about rape in the chapter. We had first the rumor about the septas that were kidnap and turned slaves and the rumor about about Alynne Connington being raped by Griffin. In Mystwood we had Lady Mertyns saying she was not raped, but some of her servants were.

I wonder if this rumors will have impact in Arianne.

I'm wondering if the Prince of Dorne himself would not spread the rumors either in his own lands or in KL.

One thing about that chapter is the perspective of Arianne about Aegon being no less than a pretender. Someone she hope to manipulate, or at least push toward a direction that would be advantageous to Dorne. I suppose the faith in KL would not support Aegon if the allegations of mass raping would be heard there.

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On 04/06/2016 at 5:02 AM, Poupsi said:

I'm wondering if the Prince of Dorne himself would not spread the rumors either in his own lands or in KL.

One thing about that chapter is the perspective of Arianne about Aegon being no less than a pretender. Someone she hope to manipulate, or at least push toward a direction that would be advantageous to Dorne. I suppose the faith in KL would not support Aegon if the allegations of mass raping would be heard there.

I don't think so. Doran send Arianne to gather information and makes the best decision when facing Aegon. So, spreading rumors would sabotage his efforts. If the Iron Throne discovers Arianne was there to negotiate a possible alliance with Aegon, Dorne would be charged by treason, the fact Aegon is true or not would be irrelevant.  

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Just now, Arrow of the Morning said:

I don't think so. Doran send Arianne to gather information and makes the best decision when facing Aegon. So, spreading rumors would sabotage his efforts. If the Iron Throne discovers Arianne was there to negotiate a possible alliance with Aegon, Dorne would be charged by treason, the fact Aegon is true or not would be irrelevant.  

 

Actually, I came with a theory:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/140894-storms-end-godsgrief-and-the-new-storm-king/

Jon Connington will force Aegon to marry Arianne in order to get Dornish Spears while being besieged by Tarly after a bloody battle between the GC and the Tyrells forces. Aegon will believe it could work based on his pillow talks with Elia. Arianne would object and ultimately kill Aegon and the heads of the GC, take Storm's End and hold it agaisnt Tarly and be saved by a violent storm.

Doran would cover Arianne presence in SE, by spreading a story (especially in KL) of abduction and rape on his own daughter, by tge pretender Aegon.

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There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing. You will want to be safe inside the walls before the battle.” Will we? Wondered Arianne. “Battle? Or siege?” She did not intend to let herself be trapped inside Storm’s End.

She will be trapped inside Storm's End.Jon Connighton can't let her go before she sees Aegon's power.

 

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