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[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

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Given this, we know that the Florents considered the Tyrells as pretenders. I wonder if the other great houses of the Reach feel the same way? House Tarly could just as easily displace house Tyrell without much resistance from the rest of the Reach.

"Just as easily" is the wrong choice of word, considering that the Florents lost their lands and their castle and most of them lost their lives as well. Tarly did not support the Florents over the Tyrells, anyway; thus Rowan would not necessarily support Tarly over Tyrell either, should Tarly make a move to overthrow the Tyrells as lord paramounts.

So yes, there's a very good chance Tarly is the one leading the army. And he's probably got some buddies in the Golden Company.

Probably? Most of the GC are outcasts and they lived in the stepstones for the most part (as the usual battleground for the GC is there). It's not terribly likely that Tarly has got buddies there, especially not in the plural. Maybe the GC member was pointing at Tarly with his comment about "friends", but it just as easily could just be less powerful lords who lost part of their lands for siding with the Blackfyres in the wars of the past (well, rather because of their fathers/grandfathers doing so, but the sentiment could linger).

When it comes to this stuff about fake supply line theories and such, I think people forget there was a Tyrell army already besieging the fortress. They aren't going to just let some supply train or mummers through :) Connington would have had to fight the Tyrells as well. Which means perhaps they pretended to be Stannis' cavalry or something and that's the "guile", who knows.

"People" do not forget the Tyrell army, to the contrary! A crucial point in the "fake supply" idea is that the GC "proves" it is pro-Stannis by either attacking and defeating the small Tyrell holding force, or by chasing it away.

What you may be confused by is that only a small part of the Tyrell army is still at Storm's End; Mace took most of the original siege army when he went back to KL to free Margaery. The Tyrells left enough to pin the small garrison in the castle, but don't expect them to be able to muster much resistance against a good part of the GC.

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Griff means to go on the offense against the Tyrell force heading for Storm's End. My guess, Griff knows they'll be heading down the Kingsroad from King's landing to Storm's End, somewhere along the kingsroad he'll pick a good position to ambush the Tyrell force and take them by surprise. Like Tarly at the Battle of Ashford he will attack them before they have a chance to form up.

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An ambush seems to be the likely course of action for Conningtion. He knows the lay of the land, has troops of the highest quality and is probably still at about half strength. The Tyrell army is probably at least 20,000 strong. Success will depend on who is commanding the Tyrells.

I wonder if the GC will deploy their elephants in some fashion?

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An ambush seems to be the likely course of action for Conningtion. He knows the lay of the land, has troops of the highest quality and is probably still at about half strength. The Tyrell army is probably at least 20,000 strong. Success will depend on who is commanding the Tyrells.

I wonder if the GC will deploy their elephants in some fashion?

I'd like to see the elephants in action against the Fat Flower's forces. I wonder if Griff's cousin Red Ronnet will be with the Tyrell force to prove his loyalty and try to ride up to kill Griff for taking Griffin'sRoost.

Edited by fireeater22

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An ambush seems to be the likely course of action for Conningtion. He knows the lay of the land, has troops of the highest quality and is probably still at about half strength. The Tyrell army is probably at least 20,000 strong. Success will depend on who is commanding the Tyrells.

I think it is actually more likely to be Tarly rather than Mace himself - assuming Mace will want to stay close to Margaery and oversee her protection (and Tyrell interests in the small council) himself. Tarly is then the logical replacement to command the army sent to the south.

I would expect Red Ronnet to be part of the force going south.

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Lord Tarly reminds makes me think of Jaime and the Whispering Woods. As strong a battle commander as he is, I don't think caution is in his vocabulary. I think he knows only one way when it comes to battle, and that is straight into the fray. He seems a good candidate to be ambushed.

If Jon can capture, kill or turn Randyll, it would be a devastating blow to the Tyrells. I'm not sure who else would be a capable commander except for Mathis Rowan. Lord Mathis is the wild card. Much is made of his ability and the possibility that he could be a friend in the Reach and a Targaryen loyalists. I still have not been able to pin down his location in all of this. He was last seen in ASOS. I don't know if he returned to the Reach with Garlan and the rest of the Tyrell forces.

I would say Paxter Redwyne, but he off battling Euron and the iron men. I think he will meet end his end at the hands of the Crow's Eye and his forces.

Red Ronnet is an interesting part of the story. Cousin Jon has his younger brother, sister and bastard son. I wonder if he will aid Jon?

Additionally, Aegon's forces have conquered almost 2/3 of the Stormlands with the fall of Storms End. I start to wonder if Connington has roused the Storm lords and made them amenable to Aegon's rule? If so, his forces may have increased substantially. I don't think Renly went to war with all of his possible strength (specifically, the Marcher Lords). Lord Julian Swann did not call his banners, but instead sent his two sons (Donnel to fight for Renly and Balon to fight for the Lannisters). It makes sense that they would withhold their forces because of the large numbers Renly already had and because they need to remain to check Dorne. I calculate that 10,000 + troops could be available. A victory over a large Tyrell army could be just what they need to turn their cloaks as they have little love for House Lannister.

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It seems unlikely the Storm lords have much love for Aegon and Connington at this time - some of the reports on the readings mentioned that the captive ladies and lords (who remained in the captured castles) were not happy with Connington. The way he treats his own family in Griffin's Roost may be an indication of this; he certainly hasn't been making any friends there.

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About Arianne's plan to crown Myrcella and who betrayed it...

If Arianne was betrayed by one of her party, I would suspect Drey, for these two reasons: 1) Myrcella is noted as an exceptionally smart child, and children have good intuition. She especially seems to see through things (knowing why they dyed her hair brown, her handmaid, etc.).

When Drey kneels by her feet and asks her to call him by his first name, she gives him a wary look and says "until I know you better, I must call you 'Ser'." Arianne notes that this response is odd because Drey has "an easy way and easy smile" (paraphrasing).

Later on, Drey seems to be making a special effort to cheer Myrcella by talking about how she has won many "battles" and is "merciless" with Trystane at the cyvasse table.

I find it interesting that he brings this up, not just because of the phrasing (battle, no mercy) but because it seems like he's making a reference to the game of thrones, and how Myrcella plays it better than Trys.

I might be reading too much into the last bit, but my radar went off immediately when Myrcella responded to Drey in that way.

2) Apparently Arianne and Tyene were going to have a 3some with Drey, but he spurbted right when Tyene drew him out of his pants. It was to be all 3's first time. Arianne chuckles in remembrance, thinking of how Tyene has dangerous hands. I wonder if both of them laughed at him when this happened. That might have made him angry, but he strikes me as the type to harbor anger under an exterior of easy smiles (kinda like BB Plumm).

He's also the first to yield when Hotah & crew show up...perhaps b/c he was expecting it?

Anyway, even tho he's been Arianne's friend, it's known that Arianne tells secrets easily, esp. to her friends, so Drey probably "knows" that Quent is the heir to Dorne and not her. It wouldn't surprise me if he tries to curry favor with Doran so that he might gain more power. He could even explain his treachery by using the line of "crowning her [Myrc] would kill her".

Anyway, I could be totally wrong and it's someone who hasn't even appeared on-screen. I also haven't tried to figure out the mystery as much as others but this is what comes to mind when I remember.

What's strange about that? Arianne, especially in a chapter that brings news about the war of Connington and Aegon, sounds much more interesting that the Damphair. What could he be doing anyway, with Asha and Theon still far away from him and Euron and Victarion even farther?

First, if I were in that crowd, I would totally trust what GRRM thinks is read-worthy, because HE knows everything that's happening!

Second, we haven't heard a Damphair POV in a looooong time, and everyone in the series, at least, has been wondering what he's doing.

Third, GRRM said "it has some really twisted stuff": if he's saying that, it must be really, really twisted, and prob related to Euron! I've been wanting to know about that for a while. Just because characters aren't in the same place doesn't mean we can't learn about the ones who interest us thru flashbacks...so much of the juiciest information has come from recollections and flashbacks. I can see how initially an Ari chapter might sound more interesting than a Damph, but what clinches it for me is what Martin said about it and that he made an effort to convince the crowd.

What I find most strange is why Doran, who is always patient and reasonable, would send his heir to meet this rebel, who could be an ally or just another doomed pretender? If the Iron Throne finds out about the meeting, they won't be very happy...

Well, I think that some readers are starting to take the Sand Snakes' and Arianne's typical view of Doran. Yes he's a planner, but he also knows when to act. It doesn't mean he'll never take a risk in his entire life. He took a huge one by sending Quent all the way to Meereen. All agree in Dance that it's a dangerous journey just getting there, much less winning Daenerys' favor.

But how can Arianne be sure that oh yeah that is sure is my cousine.

Jon Connington who knew both Rhaegar and Elia believes he is their son. What could Arianne possibly notice on him, how on earth could she possibly confirm it? Everybody knows Aegon looked more like Rhaegar so even if he has not much Dornish features it is no proof at all to her that he is fake. How old was she when the whole thing happened? Around 5-6 years old? Connington definietly knew both parents better than she.

I don't see how could Doran think his daughter would be able to tell it wether he is real or not. I mean I dont believe there was no one in Dorne who actually knew both of Elia and Rhaegar personally and wasnt a kid when the whole Rebellion thing happened.

There's probably a lot we don't know, since it isn't Arianne I, but Arianne II. He can't go himself, and I'm not sure that Arianne's "mission" is to determine his DNA. No one can do that. If Aegon's a fake, then Jon Connington is a man especially likely to be duped because he would want to believe it's his beloved Rhaegar's son...but Ari is just collecting information and going to treat with Aegon. If the rules of hospitality mean anything to JC & co., then Arianne won't be killed, at worst taken hostage and I don't see why they would want to do that when Doran is not sending hostile signals to any Targs.

No they were tapestries that had belonged to Robert. I think they depicted hunting.

I personally think that Littlefinger plans to do something exceedingly clever with those tapestries...in fact, I'm going to start an official thread for any theories regarding it, but atm, does anyone have any ideas? (I'm still finding textual evidence to support my theory :))

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I personally think that Littlefinger plans to do something exceedingly clever with those tapestries...in fact, I'm going to start an official thread for any theories regarding it, but atm, does anyone have any ideas? (I'm still finding textual evidence to support my theory :))

Nobody really came up with a convincing theory for the tapestries - people have formed theories based on the tapestries being Targaryen ones (to proclaim allegiance for Aegon and/or Dany) or depicting a lineage of Baratheons (to "prove" Tommen is a Lannister and not the rightful king). However, from the text it actually seems more likely the tapestries are just scenes that Robert happened to like. Theories that start from this POV propose that LF may have only been testing Cersei to see if she still considered LF her friend (in which case, she would agree to send them) or that he used the tapestries to smuggle something out of KL (but what?).

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I've started a reread, am on aGoT. Have been watching for the tapestries. So far at least FOUR GoT chapters reference these tapestries, They are favorite hunting tapestries of Roberts. Depicting hunting scenes from Lys, Qorthos, etc...(dont have book with me am not recalling exactly) places across the sea, The tapestries are listed from 3 places, 2 of the 3 are the same as places Willem Darry hid Dany and Vis before he died. The household that was Targ freindly where the "Lady" death happend was the Darry household. These are facts I can find to quote from.

Now without double checking, I seem to remember a Jaime/Cersei recollection of them having sex at this Darry household with Robert passed out nearby? And wasnt there a reference of blank walls where some tapestrys once hung there? I am waiting to get to this again on the reread to confrim. If I am remembering this correctly, I think Robert took these tapestries from the Darrys, cause he liked them and hes king. I submit maybe Willem D sent these home to his Darry house as souveniers from his exile with the Targ kiddies.

So if my memory is correct (blind luck) LF could use/give them for maybe these purposes:

-Ingratiate Dany to him because she loved W.Darry who smuggled her out of Dragonstone, and they were his and Stolen by the usurper.

-Ingratiate Raymun Darry and his holdings to his cause thus tying another family and a Targ loyalist to his "strength" because Rob stole them.

I dont know where the chapter is that might confirm my thought that Robert stole the hunting tapestries, and It might be months before I finally find it, I think It might be a Cersei chp in aFfC. I skimmed the Jaime chp in aSoS and didnt see the recalled sex scene,

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JC was always a strong battle commander. He has had a long time to regret his mistakes from the Battle of the Bells and is not likely to show any leniency this time around.

1. When Aerys named him hand, Tywin disapproved of the choice only because of Jon's age (in which he was right), not because of his ability.

2. Kevan knew enough of Jon to fear him if he had actually come back to Westeros.

My only concern is that the greyscale will make him act too rashly. I can't wait to find out how he took Storm's End and how he will deal with the Tyrell army.

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Timmay; Raymun Darry is dead, killed by Gregor and/or his men when they took Darry castle and, true to form, put everyone in it to the sword.

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JC was always a strong battle commander. He has had a long time to regret his mistakes from the Battle of the Bells and is not likely to show any leniency this time around.

1. When Aerys named him hand, Tywin disapproved of the choice only because of Jon's age (in which he was right), not because of his ability.

2. Kevan knew enough of Jon to fear him if he had actually come back to Westeros.

My only concern is that the greyscale will make him act too rashly. I can't wait to find out how he took Storm's End and how he will deal with the Tyrell army.

Well 15-year old Stannis could hold Storm's End for a year against the Tyrells and King's Landing is bound to tear itself apart again now that Kevan is dead. The Lannister host in the Riverlands is without leadership, I'm sure an opportunity will present itself.

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Well 15-year old Stannis could hold Storm's End for a year against the Tyrells and King's Landing is bound to tear itself apart again now that Kevan is dead. The Lannister host in the Riverlands is without leadership, I'm sure an opportunity will present itself.

Stannis was older than 15 he was 20 or so and already knighted. Robert is only 1 year older than Stannis, so at the times the books begin Stannis is 34, by now he's 36 or 37

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Timmay; Raymun Darry is dead, killed by Gregor and/or his men when they took Darry castle and, true to form, put everyone in it to the sword.

Yes, I came back across that fact shortly after my post. Then a young Darry showed up at riverrun as the new Darry lord. I am in aCoK now. Still watching for a connection of the tapestries to the Darry's, which may tie them to Dany.

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Yes, I came back across that fact shortly after my post. Then a young Darry showed up at riverrun as the new Darry lord. I am in aCoK now. Still watching for a connection of the tapestries to the Darry's, which may tie them to Dany.

The Darry's were strong Targaryen loyalists who sided with Aerys in the war of the usurper. Ser Jonothor Darry was a member of the Kingsguard and died on the Trident. Ser Willem Darry was to one who took Viserys and Dany into exile. The Darry's were a very powerful and wealthy house in the Riverlands, but had all of their gold and most of their land taken by Robert becuase of Targ support. The tapestries are a testament to that support and hope for Targ restoration.

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Stannis was older than 15 he was 20 or so and already knighted. Robert is only 1 year older than Stannis, so at the times the books begin Stannis is 34, by now he's 36 or 37

Robert and Ned were born in 263, Stannis 265, Rebellion began at 282 so Stannis was 17, Ned and Robert at 19.

Edited by DurararaFTW

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Yes, I came back across that fact shortly after my post. Then a young Darry showed up at riverrun as the new Darry lord. I am in aCoK now. Still watching for a connection of the tapestries to the Darry's, which may tie them to Dany.

Young Darry is dead, too. The only (half) Darries left are the Frey offspring like Amerei Frey.

The Lannisters did the same thing to the Darrys as to the Starks, only more succesfull in killing them all off and then taking their lands for themselves (were it not for Lancel refusing at the last moment).

I don't think there is a Darry connection for the tapestries. Lord Darry hid tapestries from Robert that Tyrion found, but I don't think those ended up at KL later. They may still be at castle Darry now, if Gregor and co didn't burn or loot them.

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JC was always a strong battle commander. He has had a long time to regret his mistakes from the Battle of the Bells and is not likely to show any leniency this time around.

1. When Aerys named him hand, Tywin disapproved of the choice only because of Jon's age (in which he was right), not because of his ability.

2. Kevan knew enough of Jon to fear him if he had actually come back to Westeros.

My only concern is that the greyscale will make him act too rashly. I can't wait to find out how he took Storm's End and how he will deal with the Tyrell army.

Yeah, knowing he's only got so much time might just ruin his strategic planning with impatience. It seems like the moment is his though. There are a lot of houses in Westeros whose sympathies were always with the Targaryens, and who are sick to death of the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. With Kevan's death and Aegon's resurrection it would seem like Connington has just enough momentum to reclaim the throne for the Targs.

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