[twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

[bully]

I have a little theory regarding the Tyrells, but I don't know if this is the proper channel for this post. I'm putting it here because it involves a couple details from the Arianne II chapter discussed in this forum, but feels too off topic and speculative to add to that thread.

I find the Tyrells fascinating, but I don't know how deep or multifaceted they are. They seem largely unified (even if Mace is left in the dark a lot) and completely fixated on gaining power/the throne. After all, the Tyrell words are "Growing Strong." First they backed Aerys during Robert's Rebellion. In my eyes, Robert's side fought for honor, those who backed Aerys did so for duty, or for power. After all, who would have ever believed the Targs would be unseated? When Robert won he pardoned the Tyrells in exchange for their fealty, which places them in the power camp, rather than duty. Then in GoT Renly and Loras seem to have a pet plan to wed Margery to Robert based on a supposed resemblance to Lyana. After Robert is gone they choose Joff, and off Joff to get to the more tractable Tommen. Even Littlefinger respects Olenna as a powerful player of the game, and I think Margaery is Olenna's protege.

Now for speculation: my personal opinion is that Margaery will be found innocent, and Loras' injuries are not what we've been led to believe. The Tyrells are still growing strong. However, the power they've aligned themselves with, that of House Lannister, is not. Here I want to point out something I've noticed about those who were pardoned after Robert's Rebellion - they seem to still be Targ loyalists. (Ser Grandfather and Lord Eunuch jump to mind, as we see them backing the Targs, again or still.) Even further, it was the first Aegon who raised the Tyrells to lords of the Reach over the Florents. We all know that there is an impending return of House Targaryen to Westeros. While Dany's return is the one we've been anticipating, my guess is that the arrival of "Aegon" with JC and the GC will bring about another 'change of heart' for the Tyrells. From what I've read JC & co and the Tyrells are converging on Storms End. I think it's here that the Tyrells rejoin the "Targs" and maybe even arrange to marry Margaery to "Aegon." They value power over honor, so I can see them joining forces with Connington even if they doubt YG's authenticity. Highgarden + GC would be a formidable alliance. It seems vaguely possible to me that Dorne or the Vale might join with that front as well, though I'm torn in that regard. Good cases can be made for and against a Dornish alliance, and while the Tyrells seem to have a good relationship with LF, I think his sights are elsewhere, and tangling LF's plans with Varys' feels messy.

Any thoughts on the future of the Tyrells? or the events at Storms End?

Well, i won't say the Tyrells really catch my mind often, but there are a few things we can assume:

Fist; Margeary will not be queen. We know about the prophecy Cersei heard and is afraid of, and it says that a queen more beautyful than her will come and cast aside all she hold dear, along with her Valonqr... Scanning this you almost say: "damn, it's Margaery!", but thinking through, we realize that regardless of what is the vericdict over margaery, she won't rule, because she is not this queen od the prophecy... It's Daenarys!!! We can say this cause, Valonquar is "younger brother" and tyrion is off seeking daenarys...So, until Daenarys come, Cersei will still be queen. Now is even more clear, cause she has no one else to cow her to rightness. she'll most like kill all who raises a finger on her, and well...I'm looking forward to read Cersei being raped by Tyrion... but anyway...

Second: It's not about the tyrells but, we can almost certainly say that Aegon is bound to fail too. Just as Stannis. They will have a few small victories, but...they just don't know they failed already. Stannis built all he believe upon a lie, he thinks he's the promised prince, but he ain't even a prince....He'll heard about the dragons and his teeth will crack and crush.... And Aegon, poor boy, is yet too arrogant and experienceless, is another boy king, only not so Cersei-ish...he won't triumph alone... but he can survive if Daenarys speed up...

[chrisdaw]

Storm's End is supposed to be the most impregnable fortification on the continent of Westeros and this kid just waltzes along and seizes it in a couple of days, if not less time? Total crap. Poor Stannis. But, I guess if it gets Cersei's head that much closer to the end of a spike, so much the better...

There is no fighting force on Westeros the equal of the Golden Company and no-one knew they were coming.

It will take a force with many times the number of the Golden Company to defeat them, and if they have Dorne and/or the Reach they will not be losing anything to anyone soon. Until Dany.

[Rody]

Hell the Golden Company has frakking war elephants! WAR ELEPHANTS!

[Black Maester Sam]

They have only found 3 elephants for now and it's winter in westeros. This may not be the best climate for elephants to be useful.

[Fire Eater]

They have only found 3 elephants for now and it's winter in westeros. This may not be the best climate for elephants to be useful.

Hannibal managed to bring them over the Pyrenees Mountains. Besides, the fighting is currently in the South near Dorne. They don't have to worry about snow and cold for a while.

Edited November 4, 2012 by Fire Eater

[Black Maester Sam]

... the fighting is currently in the South near Dorne. They don't have to worry about snow and cold for a while.

The Golden Company captured Storms End and the Tyrell host is in KL. When they fight, it will most likely be somewhere in between.

The GC has 10.000 men at full strength, but we know they need some part of that, at least for now, to protect their positions in the Stormlands. So far as we know they don't have any military support or alliance in Westeros yet. They have more experience and better discipline, and the elephants could be a strategic advantage. But it's cold enough to snow in KL in the epilouge chapter and some time will go by before the 2 armies meet. I'm just questioning how much of an advantage elephants are in a fight under these circumstances.

I'm not sure how many men the Tyrells currently have in KL, some portion is still on Dragonstone, a large part was sent back to the Reach to deal with the Ironborn and they won't leave KL unprotected, but they can probably send 20.000 - 30.000 men against the GC. This should give them the advantage over the GC for now. But we also know they don't really seem to regard Connington and the GC as a big thread to them, from what Kevan has seen in his last Council meeting, so they might send a smaller portion of their host against Storms End.

I do think the GC has good chances to win the first battle against the Tyrells. When Connington manages to forge an alliance with Dorne and/or get support from other Lords in the south after that, then he can turn the tide in Aegons favor. Especially since Varys will continue to sabotage the Lanister/Tyrell alliance from within KL.

[Fire Eater]

I'm not sure how many men the Tyrells currently have in KL, some portion is still on Dragonstone, a large part was sent back to the Reach to deal with the Ironborn and they won't leave KL unprotected, but they can probably send 20.000 - 30.000 men against the GC. This should give them the advantage over the GC for now.

Then you clearly underestimate Connington. Numbers alone don't win a battle, and Connington can surprise them in ambush along the kingsroad in the hills like Hannibal did in the Battle of Lake Trasmiene.

[Black Maester Sam]

I never said the Tyrells will win the Battle. In fact i think that Connington will win, because Mace is overconfident and will make mistakes.

[Usurper's Dog]

Arianne is moving through the Stormlands to treat with Aegon/Connington and Lady Nym is on her way to KL for her seat on the small council. KL is dominated by the Tyrells, but most of the power of the southeast seems to be falling into Aegon's hands. What if we see an alliance between Aegon/Dorne, with Lady Nym an inside source of information regarding the intentions of the new Hand (and potentially the new regent) Mace Tyrell. Rather than meet in the open field, or wait to withstand a protracted siege at Storms End, what if Aegon decides to move directly on Kings Landing? What's stopping him? We've seen his boldness already at the end of ADWD when he says he plans to lead the attack on Storms End himself. And with the combined power of the GC, the Stormlands AND potentially Dorne, I think KL could defnitely fall.

A few other thoughts. We know the Tyrells and there bannerman have their attention focused elsewhere: they currently need to retake the Shield Islands and potentially even defend Highgarden from an assault by the Ironmen. We've also seen Tarly put little concern into Aegon's legitimacy and power. I'm seeing the ingredients necessary for a gross miscalculation regarding the newest "pretender". And regardless of whether he's Aegon or FAegon - nothing changes!

Edited November 11, 2012 by Usuper's Dog

[the Scorpion Knight]

@usurper's dog:

you know nymeria and myrcella are going througho the same terrain as arianne and I wouldn't be surprised if she appears in Storm's end

[Usurper's Dog]

@usurper's dog:

you know nymeria and myrcella are going througho the same terrain as arianne and I wouldn't be surprised if she appears in Storm's end

I'm a little confused about what you're saying. Are you thinking that Nymeria is going to detour and meet Arianne at Storms End? Even if that was the case, she could still proceed to KL as the eyes/ears of Aegon/Arianne. A deal could be made on at SE, definitely a possibility.

[the Scorpion Knight]

I'm a little confused about what you're saying. Are you thinking that Nymeria is going to detour and meet Arianne at Storms End? Even if that was the case, she could still proceed to KL as the eyes/ears of Aegon/Arianne. A deal could be made on at SE, definitely a possibility.

lady Nymeria is going ahead through the storm lands with myrcella ( as cersei wanted it also of note the GC controll all of the stormlands).

which might cause her to hand myrrcella over to JonC& Aegon once she hears the news of "robert strong"

Edited November 13, 2012 by the Scorpion Knight

[GoldenVale]

Arianne is moving through the Stormlands to treat with Aegon/Connington and Lady Nym is on her way to KL for her seat on the small council. KL is dominated by the Tyrells, but most of the power of the southeast seems to be falling into Aegon's hands. What if we see an alliance between Aegon/Dorne, with Lady Nym an inside source of information regarding the intentions of the new Hand (and potentially the new regent) Mace Tyrell. Rather than meet in the open field, or wait to withstand a protracted siege at Storms End, what if Aegon decides to move directly on Kings Landing? What's stopping him? We've seen his boldness already at the end of ADWD when he says he plans to lead the attack on Storms End himself. And with the combined power of the GC, the Stormlands AND potentially Dorne, I think KL could defnitely fall.

A few other thoughts. We know the Tyrells and there bannerman have their attention focused elsewhere: they currently need to retake the Shield Islands and potentially even defend Highgarden from an assault by the Ironmen. We've also seen Tarly put little concern into Aegon's legitimacy and power. I'm seeing the ingredients necessary for a gross miscalculation regarding the newest "pretender". And regardless of whether he's Aegon or FAegon - nothing changes!

Moving directly on King's Landing could end his invasion. Doran Martell has already proven to be fundamentally cautious. Whether he decides to join Aegon or not I doubt he's do it that quickly. As to the Tyrells, they're pretty good as they are now and may not want to ruin a seemingly sure thing . Thus Aegon won't have a sufficient force to attack KL in a while.

I agree about your point about miscalculating Aegon/(F)Aegon/Young Griff. However I don't think the Tyrell's situation is as dire as you make it seem. They have Willas and Garlan Tyrell back home to deal with the Iron born and they have both been described as capable men.

lady Nymeria is going ahead through the storm lands with myrcella ( as cersei wanted it also of note the GC controll all of the stormlands).

which might cause her to hand myrrcella over to JonC& Aegon once she hears the news of "robert strong"

While the sand snakes are rebellious, they certainly aren't that stupid. Handing Myrcella over to some invaders would certainly out Dorne in a bad way. Also she'd throw away Dorne's position on the King's Council and thus remove any chance of having some kind of power in King's Landing. Lady Nym will continue on to KL as planned and deliver Myrcella to Cersei and then we can see the "Nah man it was like that when you loaned it to me" conversation that's bound to happen.

[Usurper's Dog]

Lady Nym will continue on to KL as planned and deliver Myrcella to Cersei and then we can see the "Nah man it was like that when you loaned it to me" conversation that's bound to happen.

LOL this is amazing - can't wait to see what Cersei says about Myrcella's ear (or lack thereof).

Regarding Aegon's lack of strength to assault KL - I think you're right, at this point. I think we're quickly going to see Aegon's strength grow, however, as lords and knights flock to his banners. We've seen GRRM bring up the idea of loyalists flocking to the dragon banner too many times for it not to happen like that eventually. Doran Martell is exceedingly cautious, but I think he's going to realize that he can't play both sides of the fence for much longer and will need to throw his lot in with one of the sides. Ultimately I think this is going to be Aegon. Dorne has no love for the Baratheons (or their newest partners, the Tyrells) and Doran Martell has to eventually declare for his own nephew.

[Black Maester Sam]

While the sand snakes are rebellious, they certainly aren't that stupid. Handing Myrcella over to some invaders would certainly out Dorne in a bad way. Also she'd throw away Dorne's position on the King's Council and thus remove any chance of having some kind of power in King's Landing. Lady Nym will continue on to KL as planned and deliver Myrcella to Cersei and then we can see the "Nah man it was like that when you loaned it to me" conversation that's bound to happen.

... Doran Martell is exceedingly cautious, but I think he's going to realize that he can't play both sides of the fence for much longer and will need to throw his lot in with one of the sides. Ultimately I think this is going to be Aegon. Dorne has no love for the Baratheons (or their newest partners, the Tyrells) and Doran Martell has to eventually declare for his own nephew.

Mace Tyrell is in charge of the Small Council for now and he hates the Dornish, especially the Red Viper. He won't be happy to learn, that his bastard daughter has a seat in the council and Kevan didn't tell him. He is more likely to insult her or deny her the seat, than to listen to her, thus driving Dorne into an alliance with Aegon.

I think there will be war in the Reach/Stormlands/Dorne between those that accept Aegons claim (Dorne and some or most Stormlords) and those that think he's fake Aegon (the Tyrells and most Lords in the Reach). This war will devastate large regions of the south and deplete there armies.

[aryagonnakill]

Mace Tyrell is in charge of the Small Council for now and he hates the Dornish, especially the Red Viper. He won't be happy to learn, that his bastard daughter has a seat in the council and Kevan didn't tell him. He is more likely to insult her or deny her the seat, than to listen to her, thus driving Dorne into an alliance with Aegon.

I think there will be war in the Reach/Stormlands/Dorne between those that accept Aegons claim (Dorne and some or most Stormlords) and those that think he's fake Aegon (the Tyrells and most Lords in the Reach). This war will devastate large regions of the south and deplete there armies.

I anticipate at least half the reach declaring for Aegon. My suspicion was always that Tarly would defect in exchange for Highgarden, and a lot of people know that Tarly(as much as we may hate him) is twice as smart as Tyrel.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Mistwood is not flying his own banners? Now that's odd. I understand, if taken, the castle won't fly the stag, but not even his own sigil.....

i'm surprised there was no mention of House Swann though, their lands connect the Marches and the Rainwood, and have dominion on a river that spawn from the Sea of Dorne to the Kingswood surrounding IIRC. That would be a prime target for sure.

[the Scorpion Knight]

While the sand snakes are rebellious, they certainly aren't that stupid. Handing Myrcella over to some invaders would certainly out Dorne in a bad way. Also she'd throw away Dorne's position on the King's Council and thus remove any chance of having some kind of power in King's Landing. Lady Nym will continue on to KL as planned and deliver Myrcella to Cersei and then we can see the "Nah man it was like that when you loaned it to me" conversation that's bound to happen.

and the rumours of an 8ft. tall knight of the kingsguard championing cersei? nymeria will certainly throw their lot with her cousin then with this walking insult

[Black Maester Sam]

I anticipate at least half the reach declaring for Aegon. My suspicion was always that Tarly would defect in exchange for Highgarden, and a lot of people know that Tarly(as much as we may hate him) is twice as smart as Tyrel.

Yes, Tarly does seem the type for that, given what we know from Sam about his upbringing and how he ended up at the wall. But I can see this scenario only playing out, if Dorne doesn't declare for Aegon and tries to wait for Daenerys, otherwise there won't be enough people left to oppose Aegon for a while an his arc becomes boring.

There was a quote, I think from Tywin, that every great lord has unruly bannerman. Lannisters had the Tarbecks and the Reyns, Starks have the Boltens, Tullys have the Freys (and/or Darrys). I can't remember if there was also one for Dorne. I dont think the Vale or the Reach was mentioned though.

[grillmeister]

I have a little theory regarding the Tyrells, but I don't know if this is the proper channel for this post. I'm putting it here because it involves a couple details from the Arianne II chapter discussed in this forum, but feels too off topic and speculative to add to that thread.

I find the Tyrells fascinating, but I don't know how deep or multifaceted they are. They seem largely unified (even if Mace is left in the dark a lot) and completely fixated on gaining power/the throne. After all, the Tyrell words are "Growing Strong." First they backed Aerys during Robert's Rebellion. In my eyes, Robert's side fought for honor, those who backed Aerys did so for duty, or for power. After all, who would have ever believed the Targs would be unseated? When Robert won he pardoned the Tyrells in exchange for their fealty, which places them in the power camp, rather than duty. Then in GoT Renly and Loras seem to have a pet plan to wed Margery to Robert based on a supposed resemblance to Lyana. After Robert is gone they choose Joff, and off Joff to get to the more tractable Tommen. Even Littlefinger respects Olenna as a powerful player of the game, and I think Margaery is Olenna's protege.

Now for speculation: my personal opinion is that Margaery will be found innocent, and Loras' injuries are not what we've been led to believe. The Tyrells are still growing strong. However, the power they've aligned themselves with, that of House Lannister, is not. Here I want to point out something I've noticed about those who were pardoned after Robert's Rebellion - they seem to still be Targ loyalists. (Ser Grandfather and Lord Eunuch jump to mind, as we see them backing the Targs, again or still.) Even further, it was the first Aegon who raised the Tyrells to lords of the Reach over the Florents. We all know that there is an impending return of House Targaryen to Westeros. While Dany's return is the one we've been anticipating, my guess is that the arrival of "Aegon" with JC and the GC will bring about another 'change of heart' for the Tyrells. From what I've read JC & co and the Tyrells are converging on Storms End. I think it's here that the Tyrells rejoin the "Targs" and maybe even arrange to marry Margaery to "Aegon." They value power over honor, so I can see them joining forces with Connington even if they doubt YG's authenticity. Highgarden + GC would be a formidable alliance. It seems vaguely possible to me that Dorne or the Vale might join with that front as well, though I'm torn in that regard. Good cases can be made for and against a Dornish alliance, and while the Tyrells seem to have a good relationship with LF, I think his sights are elsewhere, and tangling LF's plans with Varys' feels messy.

Any thoughts on the future of the Tyrells? or the events at Storms End?

Nice thread, but it got me thinking about the past.

How do you gain power, if not by conquest or battle? By alliances. You promise away your children to other mighty lords. And if they are as pretty and handsome as say Margary and Loras are pictured, this come off easy. But what if you need to switch alliances to not turn out on the losing side? Of course your daughter can only be married once, as a marriage can only be consumated once and hence forward be binding.

Unless, say, the groom dies before the wedding night, yet after the wedding ceremony. And if the groom has a sweet younger brother, it is a fair bet that he would bethrothed to the bride if he should die, same as Eddard came to marry Catelyn. Under such circumstances, your sweet daughter would remain innocent for years. Thus, should the Tyrells need a new alliance in order to gain or remain in power, they can re-marry Margaery. Moreover, since the marriage is not consumated it is way simpler to break. Not to mention a new wedding is much easier to sell in with your daughter innocent. As for Margaery Tyrell, most in the kingdom - except Cersei - seem to believe her innocent before marrying Joffrey. (Of course the former ally will be pissed, so the new alliance need to be stronger than the former). The tricky part might be to escape the queen from KL in one piece. Fortunately her brother is kingsguard (and healthy at the time of the wedding - and one of the best knights in the kingdom, according to Jaime).

So how do you arrange this? With the help of some guy who need to win Harrenhal in order to win the Vale, who is also is going to lose his seat in the small council should Stannis take KL. In other words a guy with much (everything?) to lose. Therefore LF need the alliance with Tyrell. Does the Tyrells understand this, and hence blackmail LF into kingslaying? I am unceirtan, althoug I believe QoT to be the brain of the house - and she is sharp.

Ath this point we must assume neither Tyrell or LF knew about Aegon and JC. Will Tyrell join Aegon? I don't know. They have the option, say, by offering sweet innocent Margaery's hand.

If you have a backup plan when you play The Game, you're not out of play should your first move turn out badly.