Faraday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Well I don't want to lynch you, if that's what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faraday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Damn it, I just ran the numbers :| It's actually optimum for scum not to cc here fuck fuck fuck fuck dhsdsdhsdhdsfhjdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faraday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Damn it, I just ran the numbers :| It's actually optimum for scum not to cc here fuck fuck fuck fuck dhsdsdhsdhdsfhjdfBut um er, Faraday. Why would you point this out? ^_^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masonity Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 In that case we have an un-counterable guard. Who will definitely live until at least day 2, possibly longer, depending on how the killer sees things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HT Reddy Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 It is Day One, Seven players remain: kalaw, Monday, Faraday, Masonity, TheMalcolm, Stevonicus,Pebblethat Hides.4 votes are needed to lynch or go to night1 vote Masonity (Kallaw)1 votes for Kallaw (Masonity)1 vote theMalcolm (Monday)Players not voting: TheMalcolm, Stevonicus, Pebs, Faraday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masonity Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Right, we need a backup plan now Kalaw has given the killer/symp a plan. Currently we have: (3) Roled: Masonity (4) Roleless: Pebble, Faraday, Kalaw Now, either kalaw tried to signal to his killer buddy that they need to claim roled, in which case kalaw is the symp, or the symp will be the 4th, final person to claim roleless. The killer will be one of the roled. So, if on our first two lynches we lynch Kalaw and the final roleless person, we're either down to a 50% chance of catching the killer, or we've caught the symp. This way we're in a great position still. Or, at the very least, we at least won't lose unless we get day 3 wrong, which should be 1 roled and 2 roleless. Add in a potential guard result and we have a great chance. Not as great as before Kalaw spoke, seeing as to "swap groups" would have required communication between master and symp, but it mitigates some of the damage I think. ps. If Monday claims roleless, steve and malc will almost certainly both claim roled. Unless the scum follow faraday's idea and both claim "roleless", at which point one of Monday, Malc or Steve (and not the one who claims roled) is either the killer or symp, at the very least. Possibly both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Ok. Still trying to work through this. What happens if 5 people claim RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebble thats Stubby Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Ok. Still trying to work through this. What happens if 5 people claim RI? Assuming the Killer suscessully kills the healer. we have a CI in the Guard and a NaK in whoever he guarded. leaving at worst a possible 4 people to as suspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Assume we get 5 RI claims. There is a less than 20% chance we'll lynch the killer, right? Then there is like, a 50/50 that the healer gets taken out night 1. And we are probably left with 3 suspects and 2 CIs, a guard that has cleared himself and one of the RIs who could still be a symp. If we screw up the lynch we lose. Right? and all three innocents would have to agree on who to lynch. I'm sure I'm missing something. Why is this good again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faraday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 That happens anyway, except by claiming today we don't let scum claim tomorrow, they're locked in to their claims today. You should probably claim, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faraday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 But yes let us hope for 3 roled claims and stuff >_> 5 ri's is bad bad I guess. CLAIM CLAIM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Assuming the Killer suscessully kills the healer. we have a CI in the Guard and a NaK in whoever he guarded. leaving at worst a possible 4 people to as suspects.And this is our best option? With the killer and symp working against a lynched killer outcome, that's less than a 25% chance of winning, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebble thats Stubby Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Whats the alternative? if no-one else claims theres a 50% chance Masonity is the healer, either the FM will try and take him out, knowing theres a good chance he will be healed. or they will take out someone from those who have not claimed a roll. edit missed words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masonity Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Even with 5 roleless it isn't the end of the world. The killer has a 50% chance of screwing it all up anyway. Just for the record though, I'm only semi-here. When my wife gets back I have to run into work to fix a leaking cooler, and int he meantime Ali G In Da House is on Channel 5... Innit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Why can't he be a FM or a symp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faraday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 And this is our best option? With the killer and symp working against a lynched killer outcome, that's less than a 25% chance of winning, right?Um, no. wcs is it's 33% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faraday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Why can't he be a FM or a symp?Do you think a half massclaim is worse for town than a full one? I do. You should claim. It looks very much like you're deciding whether you shoudl claim a role or not, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masonity Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Why can't he be a FM or a symp? There's probably something in the region of a 33% chance I'm the symp now. If we only end up with 2 claimed roled players I'm CI, as is the other roled. There's a 50% chance one of us is toast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HT Reddy Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Even with 5 roleless it isn't the end of the world. The killer has a 50% chance of screwing it all up anyway. Just for the record though, I'm only semi-here. When my wife gets back I have to run into work to fix a leaking cooler, and int he meantime Ali G In Da House is on Channel 5... Innit! Players are respectfully reminded that it's not the 90s any more. Also, Channel 5!? (for non-Brits, channel 5 is named for its average number of viewers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monday Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Do you think a half massclaim is worse for town than a full one? I do. You should claim. It looks very much like you're deciding whether you shoudl claim a role or not, tbh.I've got all night. Deal with it. I'm just trying to understand things before I ring a bell that can't be unrung. If I claimed without fully understanding the logic, it would be irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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