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HT Reddy

Mafia Game 81.5 - Murder in New Piddlehinton

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Well it's just that not posting gets you in tier 3, so apparently actively posting is a scumtell. Which is gonna be tricky.

That's disingenuous. Not actively posting isn't a scumtell or an innocent tell. However without any tells at all from someone, it's hard to place them. Therefore they go firmly in the middle until they give a good reason to go one way or another.

If the not posting goes on too long, that in itself is a good reason.

Oh, and of course tier 1.9 looks fake. Everyone knows that only tiers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 exist. 1.9 is merely a fake tier created in order to give the illusion of separation to better separate people of slightly varying suspicion levels but equal broad suspicion tiers! duh!

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For the record, what time does the day end? Malc has said he'll be back in 8-9 hours, but that will be 4-5am UK time. As we apparently have no Americans, I'm assuming we have lots of people on GMT and GMT+1? So it's likely to be a shitty time for all of us.

But then, there's a pretty good chance that either malc will be lynched, in which case we want him to say what he has to say first, or that he'll be night killed to keep him silent otherwise, in case he has stumbled across something or the like.

What i'm saying is when does the game end, and will we all be available for the hour proceeding that? Because I was planning to make a decision before bed tonight but if there's any way to ensure the decision is made after Malc's promised post we should try to do so.

That said, Malc, why not just post it straight away in case of that very situation?

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Just a friendly reminder: The sun never sets on the British Empire. Day ends in 11 hours: Day 2 begins just a few seconds later. Get your PMs in if you are afraid of over sleeping the end of the day.

I highly recommend you sent to both me and HT.

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7am game end? There's no way i'll be on and in a fit state to post between 6am and 7am tomorrow morning.

Well, there's a chance, but not one i'd risk a mislynch on.

So sorry Malc, you should have spoken sooner.

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Oh, I'm pretty sure I know Malc's plan, btw.

He's probably town for even thinking about it, I'd guess. We'll see.

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Uh, I think I worked out a plan to optimise our chances of winning but I'm not sure if it sounds very fun :|

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If you have a "probably win" plan, throw it out here.

After all, there's a very good chance that by the time malc gets back we'll have either gone to night (and be in day 2), or most of us will be offline asleep anyway until day 2 starts.

If it's to do with a guard announcing and the healer healing the guard, too big a risk in a symp game. What do we do about the inevitable counter claim? Which guard is healed? Which do we believe the result (and resulting CI) from?

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Although thinking about it... We'd know both the first and counter guard claimants were both "Not a Killer" which is useful. Then again, they'd both only have a 50% chance of being healed, so there's a fair chance the killer would take a punt on one of them anyway. Although with him knowing one is his symp, maybe not.

At this point, the guard revealing would probably be a mistake. Later, if he's still alive, that might change.

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We claim RI or non RI

Assume we only get 2 claims.

We have a 20% chance to hit the killer 40% chance to hit anti town.

Assume we ML

We have a guard and a healer. Killer doesn't know who is who so either a) he hits the healer and we get a CI from whom the guard's target. Or he hits the wrong person so we go into day 2 with 2 CI, regardless and either 6 or 5 alive.

This is Lylo, right? Day 2, I mean. or Mylo with 6.

So we lynch a RI, 50% chance of hitting anti town, 25% of hitting the killer (via random chance).

Lynch killer - WE WIN YAY

Don't and we probably lose though. So um yeah.

Basically you're probably wondering what happens when the symp claims one of the roles, thought of that, have an idea, not sure if I should say.

Eh, It's not that useful it just narrows down our ML options and gives us two confirmed towns for day 1 and 2.

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Except Stevonicus is MIA (but unfortunately didn't go MIA in time to get a mod kill) and Malc is sleeping.

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That's brilliant. Say nothing more. big post upcoming, but i also have to put some keys in a cab. Please, no-one say anything for the next five minutes? Just humour me? :P

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hmm if the guard and healer doesn't reveal day 1 you could have 3PI's on day 2 (provided none die in the night) I have not done the math would this be more usedful?

eta sorry. don't think its within the game rules spirit to edit this blank now.

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If everyone goes along with your plans, you'll either have:

3 non ri claims (guard, healer, symp)

4 non-ri claims (3 RIs and killer)

or

4 non ri claims (guard, healer, symp, killer)

and 3 non-ri claims (3 RIs)

Obviously, in scenario 2, all 3 RIs are CIed. So obviously we'll have only 3 non-ri claims.

This gives us a 1/4 chance of hitting a killer in day 1. (7 players)

It gives us a 1/3 in day 2 (5 players)

and a 1/2 in day 3 (3 players)

The killer has to target someone in the non-RI group. That means there's a 1/3 chance of a no kill, and a 1/3 chance of them offing their symp.

So there's a tiny chance that on day 3 we lose. It's much more likely that they have either no-killed due to a successful guard, or offed their symp.

On day 4, we win.

So we're risking the killer managing to survive to the final 2 non-roled, AND not targeting their symp and killing the healer without him managing a heal. The chances of a killer win is next to 0.

The big problem is the MIA player and Malcolm. Although I trust Stevonicus will get back on at some point this game day, and if at least 1 or 2 people will be around when malc gets up we might be able to swing it anyway. To be perfectly honest, if steve gets back soon we'll actually KNOW which camp malc is in, and when malc gets up, we'll know which camp steve is in. If it's 4-2 they are in the roled camp, if it's 3-3 they are non-roled. Just through the process of elimination.

ps. If the killer claims roled, the RIs are proven to be RIs by being the only 3 claiming RI. We know there are 3 RIs. At that point, with 3 RIs in the game, it'll be pretty hard to lose anyway :P

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