Whose death would surprise you the most?

[Tom of Sevenstreams]

My first blush reaction was Daenarys Stormborn. Of course now that I've thought about it, she will certainly survive at least up to the climax of the final novel but could very likely die at that point. I still think she makes it though.

POV Characters Survival Rate:

Sansa - 99.9% chance of survival, she really is the odds on favorite the more I think about it.

Bran Stark - 95% the poor crippled greenseer is extremely likely to survive. Although since he's more of a 'hero' then Sansa he is slightly more likely to sacrifice for the greater good.

Tyrion Lannister - 90%, our poor pathetic shell of a midget. I suspect he will suffer ever more but not die. The only way I see this happening is if he can finally get revenge for his poor wife, or against his dear sister but in order to do so has to die himself.

Arya - 90% I think she has Stark plot armor, but she is also in a dangerous profession and has the tools to 'act' so much like Bran, she is more likely to go valiantly.

Samwell - 90% - The only way he dies is if he gets the chance to sacrifice himself to prove he's not truly a coward after all. I can imagine the scene, just after telling Jon Snow thank you for telling him never to tell anyone he was such a coward, he runs off and does something courageous, stupid and deadly.

Asha Greyjoy - 85% I expect Asha to eventually have the Driftwood crown upon her head. She is a typical strong female survivor for this type of series. Not the type of girl to go risking her precious neck for things like honor or to save the realm.

Arianne Martell - 75% I expect her to make it one way or the other, as the leader of a mostly unscathed Dorne.

(This is where it starts to drop precipitously)

Davos - 60% - slightly more likely then not to make it. Too willing to sacrifice for Stannis or his family or the world.

Jon Snow - 60% - The hero of our tale, so he's toast right? Or will GRRM be good enough to leave us one disciple of Eddard to carry the torch.

Daenarys Stormborn - 55% Our girl will definitely return to Westeros and her Dragons will be instrumental to it's salvation, but do I see her surviving? Yes, but I can easily see her not. Let's hope she finds her way to that house with the red door one more time.

Jaime Lannister - 50% - it's hard for me to predict his story arc, and it does seem like he will die in glory. However, doesn't the idea of a graceful, white haired, south paw Lord Commander of the Kings Guard stalking the halls of the Red Keep keeping an eye strike you with a bit of poetry?

(the rest of these people are in some pretty seriously trouble)

Theon Greyjoy - 40% - what an excellent story arc, but one that is more or less complete. For our broken hero to fall in battle defeating or helping to defeat the tyranny of the Boltons will be wonderful.

Aeron Damphair - 20% - an outside shot, if anything he will be an advisor to Asha.

Brienne the Beauty - 10% - I don't expect her to survive.

Victarion Greyjoy - 0%

Barristan Selmy - 0%

Jon Connington - 0%

Cersei Lannister - 0%

Melisandre - 0%

These final 4 will die as a pawn, a failure, a well deserved comeuppance and in one last gasp to attempt to save Azor Ahai, in that order.

Other interesting characters odds:

Littlefinger - 35% I can see him hanging on as as either an adviser to the new king/queen but I don't see him as king.

Varys - 25% - I'm not sure that survival is his goal, putting a Targaryan on the throne is all that matters and he will play his final chip (his own life) if he needs to, and he will.

Mance Rayder - 50% - this may just be wishful thinking but I love this guy.

Bronn - 99.9% - This guy has his priorities right.

Tommen - 20% - this is a cruel world kid.

Myrcella - 30% - not quite as important as her poor brother.

Sandor - 60% - he deserves his peace and he will have earned it.

Sweetrobin - 15% - I see the kid going down personally.

Roose Bolton - 10% - he's like the reverse Obi-Wan. However he's smarter then...

Ramsey Bolton - 0% - who has used all his karma to punch a one way ticket to death.

Rickon - 99.9% three cheers for the new Lord of Winterfell!

UnCat - 0% - This chick is toast!

Everyone on Aryas list - 0%

Ser Jorah - 25% - only because in some ways living with having failed Dany will be infinately worse then having died.

OK I ran out of steam. Definitely a fun game.

[ZacharyB]

Brienne is my favourite female character, so I hope she will not die. I would be very surprised by her death

I'd like to talk about ADWD but I still don't know how to do a spoiler :huh:

Feel free, the ADWD spoiler policy ended a while ago. :)

[Floredaï]

I wouldn't bet much on any of the characters' survival in the end, but I think that a few of them are not going to die soon, because they've not quite achieved their purpose :

Jon : I don't know how he'll make it, though.

Dany : there are still three dragons waiting to be useful ; that's of course assuming they are meant to be be useful. If not, Dany could be dispatched real quick and stay renowned as "the mad witch who unleashed three untamable dragons on the world, as if we didnt have already enough problems with those Others and winter coming"

Arya : the whole Braavos experience has to lead somewhere

Tyrion : same for the whole trip to Meereen ; plus he's the walking encyclopedia on dragons, that has to be of use

Davos : until he finds Rickon, at least

Theon : survived poor odds so far, I expect GRRM intends him to do something else (plus I harbor the secret hope he'll settle down with Jeyne).

Jaime : he still has Cersei to kill, and Brienne to do.

And on the whole I agree with Tom of Sevenstreams 0% odds. In fact i would much rather start a thread on "Who's gonna kick the bucket first".

The first on the list is whatever poor sod in the arriving khalasar who will fail to note that the half naked girl has a dragon for a pet.

Victarion will probaby have time to arrive in Meereen, do whatever he is supposed to do besides delivering a fleet, reveal what's his problem with Euron, and then he's toast (maybe literally too). I give him one or two Meereen chapters, at best

Roose Bolton : is probably already dead.

Sweetrobin : half poisoned already, won't last more than one chapter. Sansa will probably finish him. Then she'll show Littlefinger his lessons on "how to betray everyone and still come on top" weren't for naught.

UnCat : will be offed by Brienne with Oathkeeper (Brienne really needs to fall off her "perfect knight" stand).

Not so sure about Melisandre. She may be needed to assume the Wall POV while Jon is unavailable, so could stay longer if he's "permanently" unavailable.

I'd also lower the odds for Ariane Martell : the fact that she's going to meet Aegon doesn't bode well for her, the boy has "doomed" written on his forehead

[mcb]

Nonsense.

Of course not. I'm right.

[Lord Martin]

No one is 100% safe. The safest I'd say:

Rickon: Makes no sense to keep him alive this long just to kill him later. He's more of a plot device than a character.

Asha Greyjoy. Someone has to lead the Iron Islands and it won't be Euron, Victarion or Theon. I suspect they all die.

Bronn: Seems like a cop out, but come on? Whose going to get the best of Bronn of the Blackwater?

Then, I expect at least 1 and prob 2 of these three to survive (Jon, Tyrion and Dany). One of them has to die.

Of the remaining Starks I think Rickon is a lock to survive and Sansa 99%. Bran and Arya are the wildcards. And I'm not sure whose in more trouble there.

Also, I expect Illyrio to have a better chance of outliving Varys or LF.

[Allyria Dayne]

Feel free, the ADWD spoiler policy ended a while ago. :)

Ok, cool, I'm just worried about the ones who haven't read it yet...

About Brienne, in ADWD, I don't think she is like Catelyn, a kind of UnBrienne, I think they have mercy and didn't kill her.

I would be very sad and stunned if she dies.

[King Harren]

Dany, really not sure how she can be killed tbh. She has magic, dragons and several thousand of the best trained body guards on her side. One of the few easy ways still open regards killing her is fire - and even that won't work. Any time there's an assassination attempt on her (there have been quite a few) it fails, so clearly she has some sort of magic/extreme luck on her side.

[Steel Puppet]

I just feel Bran is more vulnerable than invincible to be honest. It feels to me (*crackpot theory alert*) that CotF/ Old Gods/ Greenseers will somehow "fade" from Westeros like Elves from Middle Earth... or maybe (just maaaaybe) Bran would sacrifice his life to save the world from Others and again that would lead to the downfall of CtoF etc. I think Jamie is also very likely to die, and soon.

Least likely to die: Tyrion, Sam, Sansa, Rickon and of course Jon/ UnJon/ Ghost-Jon :P

[flame7926]

What about Aegon?? assuming hes the real aegon. What do people think about him? I think he will live long enough for Dany to come to Westeros, but after that, he'll probably die so that there doesnt have to be any more inbred targs.

[maria underfoot]

Arya. I'm sure she won't die. I'd have liked to include Jaime, but it's not so likely... I don't think Dany is as safe as people consider her to be. I think Martin could totally pull another Ned with her. (To be honest, I hope so :devil: ).

[Alexia]

I feel confident in predicting survival for the four surviving Stark children. I'd be genuinely surprised if anything happened to any of them; they all seem to have a very clear role to play in reclaiming the North, defeating the Others, and restoring House Stark to power. Jon is a bit of a tossup, but all in all I rather expect his survival -- if he dies, it won't be before the final act of the final book.

I expect Dany and Tyrion to die, personally, but I'd be genuinely surprised if it happened before the final act of the final book. Dany needs to face the Others and meet the Stark children (I'm laying odds on Arya or Sansa) and Tyrion needs to have a confrontation with his fellow Lannisters.

I'll go out on a limb and predict survival for Brienne of Tarth, Samwell Tarly, Arianne Martell, Asha Greyjoy, and Theon Greyjoy as well.

[Azor Ahai Reborn]

I don't think GRRM would kill Dany... because remember:

SPOILER

in the prophecy that Cersei had, that all her children will die before her, her brother will strangle her, and a new, young and beautiful queen will be her replacement? I think that cersei's replacement is Dany, and that one day Danny will sit on the Iron Throne. so if Dany were to die i would be completely surprised.

Nothing would bore me more, tbh.

[ZacharyB]

Dany shall replace Cersei

And then Dany shall get slain by Hodor

It is known.

[Chalais]

Samwell Tarly, after worming his fat arse out of so many scrapes I'd be truly shocked if he actually died.

[Ms. Njalsson]

Honestly, the only ones that shocked me were Ned (obviously) and Catelyn, and, well, we all know how that one ended.

[Francis Buck]

If you mean by the end of the final book, then honestly no one's death would really surprise me that much aside from Bran. I fully expect to see Dany, Tyrion, and Jon all die before the series is over (no I don't think Jon is really dead, at least not permanently).

If you're talking by the end of The Winds of Winter, then in that case there would be a lot of characters I'd be surprised to see die. Dany, Tyrion, and every Stark child are good until A Dream of Spring. There's way too much invested in them so far, and I don't think the next book alone would be able to satisfy all of their arcs (most of which I'm sure will continue to become more and more intertwined). Second tier would be Cersei, Jaime, Sam, Theon, Melisandre, Davos, Catelyn, Brienne, Varys, Littlefinger, Aegon...I'd be somewhat surprised (but not shocked) if too many of these people kicked it before the last book. Honestly though I don't think we'll really start seeing major characters drop like flies until the last book. After that, all bets are off.

Except for Bran. I'd bet large sums of money that Bran will survive (and likely serve as the saga's final main POV, just as he was the first). Sansa comes in as a close second.

[Queen Regent]

Tyrion, Dany, Jon, Arya or Sansa.

[Francis Buck]

Basically, I've started to come around to the camp that says GRRM isn't quite as daring when it comes to character deaths as some people think he is. ASoS shocked the hell out of me I fully admit (I was spoiled for Ned in AGoT) but I'll be suprised (and happy) if he'll get me to feel that level of 'what the hell did I just read?' again.

I kind of agree with this in a way. GRRM's two biggest "shockers", Ned and Robb, I think were planned from the beginning (well Ned obviously was). This late into the series, however, you can sort of predict who's too important to die anytime soon (again though, I do think all bets are off once we get to the last book). Especially since, after A Storm of Swords, death is not quite so permanent. This is why Jon's "murder", while admittedly surprising, was nowhere near the level of Ned or Robb, as there's a reasonably good chance he could still make it out alive (the fact that it was left so ambiguous at the end makes it all the more fishy).

[Ice&Fire reader]

WOW....there are some very interesting thoughts and ideas on this topic....((except for the Un-Brienne theory at the hands of Thoros of Myr....I never read anything in the later part of the story of the books that suggested Brienne died and was brought back....so that's just silly.))

I decided to join in and give a few thoughts out....

POV Characters...I would be most surprised if Daenereys or Arya died in the upcoming because the story has built around them so much and they are practically the only POVs who have made it through all books so far.

Sansa would be less surprising by far...because she has contributed so little beyond whimpering to herself and crying when things go bad, plus she is constantly shaming the Stark name by being so fickle, weak, and naive. She is annoying and should have chocked to death already on her own tears of self-pity.

Bran can almost certainly not die. His character involvement is almost incomprehensible in comparison to the others when considering the fact he gets so much ink, but has hardly NO involvement with other major people and events other than himself in the last few books.....Bottom line...Bran has too much to make up for.

NON-POVs....I would have to say Jorah Mormont. His character has been pretty pivotal without being terribly involved, but he has undergone a Jamie Lannister-ish transformation, and this next book will see him in a fate facing predicament I believe....same as Jamie, but I would be more surprised if he dies, whereas Jamie's death is almost required.

[Queen Arya]

Tyrion and Arya. i just don't see them dying at all.

Jaime is way more possible but i would still be surprised. He has all that redemption theme going on, if he dies his story will seem a bit pointless (unless he dies saving someone?? tommen and myrcella? Brienne? some Stark?)

Davos would be very surprising.

really???

i love Davos, he is in my top5 favorite characters for sure, but he thinks too much about his wife and kids for me to believe that is actually going to happen.