R+L=J v.16

[ipsuel]

Well, there is a SSM where George says that the Dornish did not approve of Rhaegar's "treatment" of Elia, though that may only refer to his "humiliation" of her at Harrenhal.

Oh really? I must not have read that one yet! Well aren't I a moron ;-)

Although, I do still think we would see *much* more anger/resentment (especially from Oberyn) if they believed Elia was being truly mistreated or tossed aside.

[Alia of the knife]

Oh really? I must not have read that one yet! Well aren't I a moron ;-)

Although, I do still think we would see *much* more anger/resentment (especially from Oberyn) if they believed Elia was being truly mistreated or tossed aside.

No your not a moron. :)

On this matter it could just be they didn't have a choice because of Elias condition.

(It could have been a "gods" send for Rhaegar, so that he actually has an arguable defense to put her aside).

And I think loving and marrying her for love, which this siginifigance would not be lost on the Dornish, would make Lyanna more dangerous to them.

If they could satisfy themselves that she's just a mistress, or paramour, then they can hope he'll tire of her eventually.

Or, as I said, maybe they don't blame Lyanna, because she wasn't at fault for Elias plight.

I do wonder though how long Lyanna would last if Rhaegar brought her back to KL?

Between Aerys, (if he's not been "retired"), the Martells and not to mention Tywin, Lyanna may have had to sleep with a sword.

[SFDanny]

This ^ The fact that we don't hear the Martell's complaining about Rhaegar makes me believe they were on board with a 2nd wife. Otherwise, we would have heard something... anything... about what a schmuck Rhaegar was in their view.

We don't know what the Martell's think about Rhaegar's conduct with Lyanna, but it isn't hard to understand why they would object to a second marriage. Placing a non-Martell heir in the line to the throne - even given Aegon's secured place as next in line - is worrisome to anyone concerned about Martell influence on a future king. Princes can die; Princes can be set aside; in short, many things can happen that could conceivably threaten Martell influence. There may well have been lots of Martell complaining - at the time of Rhaegar's disappearance with Lyanna - but all that pales in comparison to what happens to Elia and her children during the sack of King's Landing. Whatever Doran and Oberyn Martell thought of Rhaegar is put aside by the murder of Elia and her children. After that Dornish plans center on one thing - how to get revenge on the killers.

If i remember correctly, Ned was at the reach when the mad king demanded his and Roberts heads, so how would he possibly stop his hothead brother from doing this?

I'm sure if he were in the vicinity of his Bro, he probably would try to "cool" him down but being a younger brother and not as good with the sword(Brandon was supposed to be good) what else could he do?

I don't think Ned knew what happened until Jon Arryn had the demand on Ned/Roberts heads, and even then............how would he know why this happened? Did the Mad king just send a letter to the Arryn's saying" cut Ned stark and Robert Baratheon's heads off and deliver them to me, posthaste" or did he say the reason for his demand as well?

Not sure I understand this. All things point to Ned being in the Vale, not the Reach, when these events occur. It is to Jon Arryn that word is sent demanding Ned and Robert's heads. It is from the Vale we have tales of how Ned travels North to call his banners. You allude to this in the second part of your post, but don't take it into account in the first, so I'm confused. Personally, I think it extremely likely that Ned is in the Vale with his friend Robert waiting to travel to his brother's wedding when he hears the news of Lyanna's abduction and Brandon's reaction. He has no way of stopping his brother, even if Brandon would listen to him, because we know Brandon is already on his way to Riverrun when he hears the news - Catelyn tells us this. It is certainly possible that Ned is with Brandon when he hears the news, but the fact we know Ned isn't with him when he travels to meet Catelyn (Cat had never seen Ned until their wedding) and he isn't with him when he goes to King's Landing points to him being elsewhere.

can you help me a bit on this? how do we now that the rest Starks didn't know that she went willingly?

I'm of the opinion, and have been for quite some time, that all of the Starks did know she went willingly. It just makes sense. How could they not know of Lyanna's feelings toward Rhaegar if what looks to have occurred at Harrenhal did happen? Ned certainly knew of her reservations towards marrying Robert. What gets most people confused about this is trying to understand Brandon's reaction if he knew she went willingly. My answer to this is his anger has nothing to do with his sister being "kidnapped"- please note that when Brandon arrives at King's Landing we are told he calls for Rhaegar to "come out and die" but he says nothing about releasing his sister. No, I think, Brandon's reaction has everything to do with Rhaegar's and Lyanna's disregard of Starks rights, the much talked about Stark sense of honor - in particular as it relates to their pledged word to Robert, and Stark ambition. Brandon is angry with both his sister and Rhaegar because the right we see talked about over and over again in the books for a lord to determine who his children will marry is usurped by the couple. Brandon is livid that Lyanna and Rhaegar think the pledged word of the Starks to Robert can be thrown aside because they love one another - all this while he must marry someone we have every indication he does not love but to whom his father has pledged him to marry. Brandon is furious because all of his father's plans concerning "southern ambitions", which he surely must have some understanding since his impending marriage is a central part of the scheme, are torn apart by his own headstrong sister and a Prince whose house is the opposition to those ambitions. Brandon has every reason to be angry without believing his sister was kidnapped.

[corbon]

Okay, so far so good. But there are some nagging questions.

Let's assume Rhaegar did want to put Elia aside and marry Lyanna. Or meant to stay married to Elia but taking another wife. Both would probably have meant war with Dorne. Not only because the Martells seem to have loved Elia. It would be a broken marriage contract and it would lessen what Dorne wanted to achieve with marrying Elia to the heir to the throne.

Your problem here is this.

War with Dorne, broken marriage contract, lessening what Dorne wanted to achieve - all of these are your suppositions only, and not supported by the text.

Clearly war with Dorne is not a major issue, since Dorne participated in the rebellion on Rhaegar's side, under his command, and continued illicitly supporting the Targaryens after the Dynasty was almost destroyed and thoroughly depowered.

There is no evidence that taking a second wife breaks any contract with a first wife. None.

And Dorne still gets what they wat out of Elia's marriage. Martell grandchildren on the throne. Aegon is half Martell and would have been King regardless of anything happening with Lyanna.

In summary, you've made up a bunch of false conditions and then wondered why they weren't taken into account.

(Sorry that sounds harsher than I mean, just being blunt, not rude.)

If Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna against her will he would not only bring dishonour to his house and to his father the king but also risk war with Dorne as well as with a lot of angry Northmen - and with the insulted and frustrated Baratheons.

Rhaegar must have been utterly reckless, if he risked all this. And surely madder than his daddy was.

Was he?

Whe seem to accept this erratic behaviour because there are a lot of tales told of mad inbred Targaryens.

But where are the signs of previous recklessness and madness in Rhaegar?

He was not a young inexperienced boy when he took Lyanna I believe.

And was he known as a reckless swashbuckly type? I did not get this impression, he played the harp, sang songs and read books.

There are zero signs of recklessness in Rhaegar's character, indeed almost everything points to the opposite.

So perhaps you are looking at it the wrong way? Perhaps you have the predicted results worng, and you should thing again about how Rhaegar might have believed evenst would pan out?

IMO the Starks could be easily mollified - they get the highest marraige alliance possible in the land and a few other tidbits like lands, titles, postions etc could have made them very happy in time.

The Dornish lose little or nothing - they still have half-Martells due to sit on the throne and a Martell Queen. They are also family-bound to the Targaryens from way back, and weak on their own, with powerful neighbours, so the least problem politically.

The Baratheons are the biggest problem, but they have the fewest rights involved here. Sure Lyanna was promised to Robert, but she isn't married yet. If the Starks accede to Rhaegar's will, Robert hasn't a legal foot to stand on. Again, some titles, lands, or somesuch should help to settle Baratheon discontent.

What blew it were the actions and personalities of others after Rhaegar was out of the picture. Sure, maybe he should have taken into account erratic and irrational behaviour, but the best predicted model of dehaviour should follow people doing what is the best for them and settling over time. Oops.

I think his actions might have been carefully calculated.

Even to the point of dropping out of sight for a few months so that the Starks can't do anything stupid trying to 'get Lyanna back' so that when he resurfaces its all a 'done deal' marriage wise and too late to claim it never happened or wasn't consummated etc. for political reasons.

He just didn't get the calculation right.

One of the difficult things is that we have virtually no information about how things went down. Were there messages of explanation? Who knows. They aren't mentioned, but if we look at the data we have there basically isn't any opportunity for a message to Rickard to be shown to us.

Or such messages may have been accidentally or deliberately lost or destroyed (I love the young Littelfinger theory here, though there is no evidence for it other than approximate opportunity).

Another thing that bugs me. Have we ever heard someone of the Martells tell us that they know about this story of setting aside or insulting a princess of Dorne? That they hated Starks or Targaryens because of this?

The Martells at least had to know what happened at the tournament where Rhaegar not crowned his wife but Lyanna as 'Queen of Love and Beauty'.

The tower of Joy was in their country. Could they really not know anything about this plot?

So, why are the Dornish so silent about all this? We just know they have a grudge against the Lannisters for killing Elia. And that Doran does not seem to hate the Targaryens enough to let it hinder him in sending Quentin off to marry a Targaryen.

Perhaps because the Queen of Love and Beauty is not so big a deal as so many readers make out? It wouldn't seem to be on the face of it if you really think - many unmarried or married knights without spouses present must have crowned other women in their time, and probably even some with spouses present. In our own world, I believe, in france during the time of highest chivalry it would have been uncommon to give it to a spouse - its the sort of romantic expression of unfulfillable love/desire in a society where marriages are about alliances and breeding and love is something else entirely.

I think the thing here is that Rhaegar was probably the sort who everyone expected to just give it to Elia as a matter of course because she is his wife and he is that sort.

All we know of it really is that in Ned's fevered memories "all the smiles died" which could mean a huge variety of things. All the smiles in the stark party area? All the smiles through the nobility? All the smiles everywhere? Because of shock, surprise, horror, a combination?

I suspect that the smiles die mostly is surprise, because it is an unexpected action by Rhaegar. And perhaps some horror/anger/fear in the stark/baratheon group if they really are building an anti-targaryen alliance. Sort of an "Oh shit, what does this mean?" moment for them and a "he did what?" moment for everyone else. And maybe even a bit of mild anger in teh martell group, that some wild northern brat outshone their own beloved princess.

Or possibly it was a high insult to Elia. We may never know.

GRRM has said that the Dornish were 'not happy' about Rhaegar's treatment of Elia.

But again, this can mean many things. Unhappy as in not particularly impressed? Unhappy as in actively displeased? Unhappy as in resentful and angry? Unhappy as in actively plotting rebellion?

They certainly still seem to fully support the Targaryen dynasty in both the short and long term.

There doesn't seem to be any hatred or even particular dislike of Targaryens or Starks as a result. Martell hatred and dislike seem reserved for Lannisters and Tyrells.

So again, perhaps the problem is the conclusions, not the lack of evidence for them?

As far as the ToJ goes, Ashara Dayne was Elia's handmaid for some time and Arthur Dayne Rhaegar's closest friend. Since ToJ is closest to Starfall, and probably was supported from there, it wouldn't take much to keep it secret even from the Martells. Only a very few loyal people need know Rhaegar and Lyanna were ever there.

[Thoheeks Bili]

We don't know what the Martell's think about Rhaegar's conduct with Lyanna, but it isn't hard to understand why they would object to a second marriage. Placing a non-Martell heir in the line to the throne - even given Aegon's secured place as next in line - is worrisome to anyone concerned about Martell influence on a future king. Princes can die; Princes can be set aside; in short, many things can happen that could conceivably threaten Martell influence. There may well have been lots of Martell complaining - at the time of Rhaegar's disappearance with Lyanna - but all that pales in comparison to what happens to Elia and her children during the sack of King's Landing. Whatever Doran and Oberyn Martell thought of Rhaegar is put aside by the murder of Elia and her children. After that Dornish plans center on one thing - how to get revenge on the killers.

Not sure I understand this. All things point to Ned being in the Vale, not the Reach, when these events occur. It is to Jon Arryn that word is sent demanding Ned and Robert's heads. It is from the Vale we have tales of how Ned travels North to call his banners. You allude to this in the second part of your post, but don't take it into account in the first, so I'm confused. Personally, I think it extremely likely that Ned is in the Vale with his friend Robert waiting to travel to his brother's wedding when he hears the news of Lyanna's abduction and Brandon's reaction. He has no way of stopping his brother, even if Brandon would listen to him, because we know Brandon is already on his way to Riverrun when he hears the news - Catelyn tells us this. It is certainly possible that Ned is with Brandon when he hears the news, but the fact we know Ned isn't with him when he travels to meet Catelyn (Cat had never seen Ned until their wedding) and he isn't with him when he goes to King's Landing points to him being elsewhere.

I'm of the opinion, and have been for quite some time, that all of the Starks did know she went willingly. It just makes sense. How could they not know of Lyanna's feelings toward Rhaegar if what looks to have occurred at Harrenhal did happen? Ned certainly knew of her reservations towards marrying Robert. What gets most people confused about this is trying to understand Brandon's reaction if he knew she went willingly. My answer to this is his anger has nothing to do with his sister being "kidnapped"- please note that when Brandon arrives at King's Landing we are told he calls for Rhaegar to "come out and die" but he says nothing about releasing his sister. No, I think, Brandon's reaction has everything to do with Rhaegar's and Lyanna's disregard of Starks rights, the much talked about Stark sense of honor - in particular as it relates to their pledged word to Robert, and Stark ambition. Brandon is angry with both his sister and Rhaegar because the right we see talked about over and over again in the books for a lord to determine who his children will marry is usurped by the couple. Brandon is livid that Lyanna and Rhaegar think the pledged word of the Starks to Robert can be thrown aside because they love one another - all this while he must marry someone we have every indication he does not love but to whom his father has pledged him to marry. Brandon is furious because all of his father's plans concerning "southern ambitions", which he surely must have some understanding since his impending marriage is a central part of the scheme, are torn apart by his own headstrong sister and a Prince whose house is the opposition to those ambitions. Brandon has every reason to be angry without believing his sister was kidnapped.

Oooops, my bad, I had a brain fart and said the Reach instead of the Vale, sorry. :bang: :ack:

[kissdbyfire]

I'm of the opinion, and have been for quite some time, that all of the Starks did know she went willingly. It just makes sense. How could they not know of Lyanna's feelings toward Rhaegar if what looks to have occurred at Harrenhal did happen? Ned certainly knew of her reservations towards marrying Robert. What gets most people confused about this is trying to understand Brandon's reaction if he knew she went willingly. My answer to this is his anger has nothing to do with his sister being "kidnapped"- please note that when Brandon arrives at King's Landing we are told he calls for Rhaegar to "come out and die" but he says nothing about releasing his sister. No, I think, Brandon's reaction has everything to do with Rhaegar's and Lyanna's disregard of Starks rights, the much talked about Stark sense of honor - in particular as it relates to their pledged word to Robert, and Stark ambition. Brandon is angry with both his sister and Rhaegar because the right we see talked about over and over again in the books for a lord to determine who his children will marry is usurped by the couple. Brandon is livid that Lyanna and Rhaegar think the pledged word of the Starks to Robert can be thrown aside because they love one another - all this while he must marry someone we have every indication he does not love but to whom his father has pledged him to marry. Brandon is furious because all of his father's plans concerning "southern ambitions", which he surely must have some understanding since his impending marriage is a central part of the scheme, are torn apart by his own headstrong sister and a Prince whose house is the opposition to those ambitions. Brandon has every reason to be angry without believing his sister was kidnapped.

In regards to the Starks knowing Lyanna went willingly, I really struggle with the idea that Rickard’s ‘southron ambitions’ and Brandon’s actions were what triggered pretty much everything that followed. I mean, if Rickard had these southron ambitions, surely having a daughter married to the crown prince is even better than having his heir married to a noble girl from the Riverlands. Ok, maybe Brandon jumped the gun when he went to KL and demanded Rhaegar to 'come out and die'. But where was Rickard? I assume he was at Winterfell and didn’t have the opportunity to talk to Brandon, or calm him down or whatever. But then I see Brandon not only as impulsive and wild, but as a bit of an idiot as well.

I really don’t know. Maybe during my current re-read it will all become clearer to me. :dunno:

[zmflavius]

In regards to the Starks knowing Lyanna went willingly, I really struggle with the idea that Rickard’s ‘southron ambitions’ and Brandon’s actions were what triggered pretty much everything that followed. I mean, if Rickard had these southron ambitions, surely having a daughter married to the crown prince is even better than having his heir married to a noble girl from the Riverlands. Ok, maybe Brandon jumped the gun when he went to KL and demanded Rhaegar to 'come out and die'. But where was Rickard? I assume he was at Winterfell and didn’t have the opportunity to talk to Brandon, or calm him down or whatever. But then I see Brandon not only as impulsive and wild, but as a bit of an idiot as well.

I really don’t know. Maybe during my current re-read it will all become clearer to me. :dunno:

There was, of course, the minor issue of Rhaegar already being married.

[SFDanny]

In regards to the Starks knowing Lyanna went willingly, I really struggle with the idea that Rickard’s ‘southron ambitions’ and Brandon’s actions were what triggered pretty much everything that followed. I mean, if Rickard had these southron ambitions, surely having a daughter married to the crown prince is even better than having his heir married to a noble girl from the Riverlands. Ok, maybe Brandon jumped the gun when he went to KL and demanded Rhaegar to 'come out and die'. But where was Rickard? I assume he was at Winterfell and didn’t have the opportunity to talk to Brandon, or calm him down or whatever. But then I see Brandon not only as impulsive and wild, but as a bit of an idiot as well.

I really don’t know. Maybe during my current re-read it will all become clearer to me. :dunno:

If Rickard's ambitions are, as I suspect they are, to build southern alliances in order to displace the Targaryens from their throne and restore the Seven Kingdoms to their political geography prior to the conquest, then an alliance with the Targaryens makes little to no sense. If Rickard wanted to build alliances of major houses that could command enough bannermen to oust the Targaryens, then alliances with House Baratheon, House Arryn, and House Tully are critical to that end. Who knows but that Rickard and his Maester didn't have further marriage plans for Ned and Benjen along these lines. Ned and Cersei? Or perhaps the proposed marriage of Jaime and Lysa was a part of the same scheme? How about Benjen fostering with the Tyrells? We know Aerys was concerned about what his great lords were up to (although he thought Rhaegar was also a part of it) so it isn't a far-fetched idea that more than a few of the High Lords of Westeros were scheming to do away with the dragonless and currently crazy Targaryens. The only thing really standing in their way was the alliances House Targaryen had with their own number. After Aerys and Tywin split, that pretty much left only Dorne solidly in the Targaryen camp. The Tyrells too maybe, but that is an open question.

Of course, these ambitions are only one of the reasons of three that I tried to enumerate to explain Brandon's and Rickard's reactions. The other two also, I think, contribute powerfully, especially to Brandon's ride to King's Landing.

Thoheeks Bili, no problem, I have more than my share of those. Glad to clear up my confusion.

[FanTasy]

In summary, you've made up a bunch of false conditions and then wondered why they weren't taken into account.

(Sorry that sounds harsher than I mean, just being blunt, not rude.)

No offense taken, Corbon! I think we both 'think along' and make some assumptions on the way.

No one knows what GRRM has in his sleeves, so there are no absolute truths on this board.

[kissdbyfire]

There was, of course, the minor issue of Rhaegar already being married.

I know, but it's been postulated here that it would be possible for him to marry Lyanna regardless of the fact that he was already married to Elia.

If Rickard's ambitions are, as I suspect they are, to build southern alliances in order to displace the Targaryens from their throne and restore the Seven Kingdoms to their political geography prior to the conquest, then an alliance with the Targaryens makes little to no sense. If Rickard wanted to build alliances of major houses that could command enough bannermen to oust the Targaryens, then alliances with House Baratheon, House Arryn, and House Tully are critical to that end. Who knows but that Rickard and his Maester didn't have further marriage plans for Ned and Benjen along these lines. Ned and Cersei? Or perhaps the proposed marriage of Jaime and Lysa was a part of the same scheme? How about Benjen fostering with the Tyrells? We know Aerys was concerned about what his great lords were up to (although he thought Rhaegar was also a part of it) so it isn't a far-fetched idea that more than a few of the High Lords of Westeros were scheming to do away with the dragonless and currently crazy Targaryens. The only thing really standing in their way was the alliances House Targaryen had with their own number. After Aerys and Tywin split, that pretty much left only Dorne solidly in the Targaryen camp. The Tyrells too maybe, but that is an open question.

Of course, these ambitions are only one of the reasons of three that I tried to enumerate to explain Brandon's and Rickard's reactions. The other two also, I think, contribute powerfully, especially to Brandon's ride to King's Landing.

Thoheeks Bili, no problem, I have more than my share of those. Glad to clear up my confusion.

Thank you for that explanation, SFDany, much appreciated. And yes, it makes perfect sense that if Rickard's intentions were to oust the Targaryens (love the 'dragonless') everything I've said is completely devoid of substance. I'm trying to really pace myself this time around because there is too much I've missed on previous reads.

[Thoheeks Bili]

^{I love speculation and can't wait for George to clarify all this for us.........for some it will be confirmation, some , a slap in the head :crying: but either way...........CMON GEORGE, GET A MOVE ON WITH THE NEXT BOOK!!!!!!!!}

[MarianneSnow]

.

I'm of the opinion, and have been for quite some time, that all of the Starks did know she went willingly. It just makes sense. How could they not know of Lyanna's feelings toward Rhaegar if what looks to have occurred at Harrenhal did happen? Ned certainly knew of her reservations towards marrying Robert. What gets most people confused about this is trying to understand Brandon's reaction if he knew she went willingly. My answer to this is his anger has nothing to do with his sister being "kidnapped"- please note that when Brandon arrives at King's Landing we are told he calls for Rhaegar to "come out and die" but he says nothing about releasing his sister. No, I think, Brandon's reaction has everything to do with Rhaegar's and Lyanna's disregard of Starks rights, the much talked about Stark sense of honor - in particular as it relates to their pledged word to Robert, and Stark ambition. Brandon is angry with both his sister and Rhaegar because the right we see talked about over and over again in the books for a lord to determine who his children will marry is usurped by the couple. Brandon is livid that Lyanna and Rhaegar think the pledged word of the Starks to Robert can be thrown aside because they love one another - all this while he must marry someone we have every indication he does not love but to whom his father has pledged him to marry. Brandon is furious because all of his father's plans concerning "southern ambitions", which he surely must have some understanding since his impending marriage is a central part of the scheme, are torn apart by his own headstrong sister and a Prince whose house is the opposition to those ambitions. Brandon has every reason to be angry without believing his sister was kidnapped.

I was asking myself the question of why, if Lyanna and Rhagear were in love, would she ultimately let her brother and father die. This post made terrific sense. Am I right in saying that L&R weren't even in KL at the time and Brandon was impulsive wasn't he??? I wonder if Lyanna thought her family would go beserk she would still have left. So, with events moving swiftly I guess maybe Rickard and Brandon died and Lyanna didn't know about it until later. Is that how it went down? And Was that generation of Stark children especially close? I believe Benjen and Lyanna were but what about the others?

[kg1982]

Rhaegar must have been utterly reckless, if he risked all this. And surely madder than his daddy was.

Was he?

Rhaegar had the makings of a good king, but he was utterly obsessed with a prophecy. There is a depression that is suggested in his personality; in fact, Rhaegar Targaryen was probably manic depressive. Reasonable and conservative future kings with an eye on the realpolitik situation don't run around abandoned ruins (summerhall) alone while their crazy father rules the country. Of course, it has been suggested that some great leaders (Abe Lincoln) were manic depressive, but let's start from the fact that he probably inherited the Targaryen mindset.

After that, take into account that Rhaegar felt that he must fulfill the PTWP prophecy above all else. He didn't care about the political realities associated with kidnapping Lyanna Stark; he just thought about the prophecy. Rhaegar was fully culpable for the situation (I give Lyanna a pass because she was a teen). He should have known better. In fact, my going belief is that the PTWP is only necessary because Rhaegar made it so with his actions. Political instability in the kingdom is the only way that the Others are going to be able to breach the Wall. And that political instability has been evident since Robert's Rebellion. Rhaegar and Lyann's union led to the PTWP but it also led to the necessity for that prince through their actions.

As for the ADWD Southern conspiracy, this is the first book that mentions the "conspiracy" and it is mentioned by an unreliable source, Lady Dustin. Lady Dustin wanted to be Lady Stark and felt that if she put out enough for Brandon that he'd marry her. I'm sure that there were slutty Stark heirs in the past and there were a few Lady Dustins who managed to seduce their way into the Stark family. What angered Lady Dustin is that Rickard Stark secured a better marriage with the Riverlands as well as a marriage with the Baratheons. Occam's razor suggests that Rickard was just lucky rather than scheming - his heir was a sexy, charismatic playboy and his only daughter was a wild, assertive beauty. Brandon and Lyanna were the two best cards that Rickard had to play and both were better cards than usual. Why not marry your Casanova heir to a southern lord with too many daughters rather than the Northern bannerman's daughter who was willing to sleep with him the most. As for Lyanna...Rickard could have probably married her to any family in tuthe Westros; she was the Starks great trump card. Robert Baratheon was likely the best match that Rickard could find for her. As for Ned, I highly doubt that the second son would entice Tywin Lannister (aka no Cersei marriage).

[LadyMary]

Rhaegar had the makings of a good king, but he was utterly obsessed with a prophecy. There is a depression that is suggested in his personality; in fact, Rhaegar Targaryen was probably manic depressive. Reasonable and conservative future kings with an eye on the realpolitik situation don't run around abandoned ruins (summerhall) alone while their crazy father rules the country. Of course, it has been suggested that some great leaders (Abe Lincoln) were manic depressive, but let's start from the fact that he probably inherited the Targaryen mindset.

I absolutely agree with this. I think Rhaegar was mostly a rational person who knew his father was insane and was, apparently, plotting to remove him (Aerys was paranoid but probably had reason to be). People who are manic depressive are prone to grandiose gestures at times, and I can see Rhaegar's obsession with the prophesy tying into his actions regarding Lyanna Stark. I personally believe he loved her and she loved him, but that doesn't mean she wasn't "abducted" as far as the rest were concerned. And being in a manic phase might cause an otherwise rational Rhaegar to not think about what his actions might cause.

As for Ned, I highly doubt that the second son would entice Tywin Lannister (aka no Cersei marriage).

Well since Tywin turned down Lewyn Martell's offer to betroth Oberyn to Cersei because she was "meant for Rhaegar", I'd say this is correct.

But maybe Rickard could have betrothed Ned to a Tyrell daughter, maybe the younger one - Mina (was she married by then?). That would have given him a tie to Highgarden and the Reach. Or, if Ashara was pregnant with Ned's child, maybe he would have consented to let the two of them get married, since Ned was less important to the game of thrones that Rickard was trying to play.

[Alia of the knife]

There was, of course, the minor issue of Rhaegar already being married.

Assuming that the idea of polygymy wasn't on the radar, I can imagine Rickard just thinking that Rhaegar would put Elia aside because she was now barren.

Rhaegar would need at least one more heir in the event something happened to Aegon, and Elia couldn't provide it.

[Alia of the knife]

I just go back and forth with this, because there are still too many things that could suggest that Lyanna was not willing, but even so, it still doesn't mean she didn't love Rhaegar.

You can't compare the mindset of "teens" in those days to now. There really was no childhood then, and her pretty savy insight into Roberts nature implies that while Lyanna was "wild and willful," she wasn't naive.

(Would that modern women much older than her had that much sense when it comes to some men).

She's also a Stark, and honor is a factor with them, as well as the fact that they face hard truths to the point of cruelty.

("Winter is Coming" was not their motto for nothing).

So, I think in this triangle, Lyanna was probably MOST likely to be realisitic about their situations. Robert was unfaithful, and the love of a good woman wasn't going to change him. He'd betray her bed for a prostitute whereas Rhaegar would not have betrayed his wife even though he didn't love her, or wasn't happy in the marriage.

He only betrayed Elia because he fell in love, and Lyanna was insightful enough to see Rhaegars goodness, BUT, in Lyannas world and culture, RHAEGAR WAS STILL MARRIED!

I don't think poylygmy was on her radar, and even if he suggested it, I don't think she would entertain that, it would be so foreign to her, as well as possibly going against her gods.

I think of the two of them, she would be the one to acknowledge the futility of their situation.

Rhaegar appears at times to be emotionally unstable, and when finally faced with real love, I could see him tying whatever prophesy to her to justify his actions, or maybe, he actually stopped thinking about prophesy and focused on the real world for once.

He goes after Lyanna almost immediately after finding out Elia couldn't have anymore children, though he clearly thought Aegon was TPTWP and his song was the one of Ice and Fire , (and again this is after he met Lyanna of Winterfell), so where does she fit into the prophesy other than providing a third head of the dragon, which any woman could have done?

Also, is there a timeline for this "third head" to be born? Did he have to born immediately after Aegon? Couldn't it have waited a couple of years?

Or is it possible the timeline had more to do with her impending marriage to Robert?

(I thought I had seen it speculated that after the events at Harrenhal, Rickard may have moved up the marriage date for Lyanna and Robert).

Their relationship really is simple. We're the ones making it complicated by throwing in a scenario like polygymy, AND I'M NOT SAYING THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN.

But I think the idea that Rhaegar may have planned on eventually having Lyanna be his one and only wife because he loved her is no more crazy than him trying to be in a poylygymous marriage with two easily insulted Houses with no dragons to back him up, proclaiming to all he had to fulfill a prophesy, saving everyone from creatures no one believed in anymore.

He can however make a legitimate, political arguement that he does need another heir, but now unfortunately, he has to have a different wife to do it. Remember, even Cersei feared Robert was going to put her aside, and she gave him two sons, (for all that he knew).

I have been persuaded that Rhaegar was a good guy, but when your a good guy, you need a really GOOD reason to do something so totally out of character like humiliating your wife, and then taking a woman who you have no right to, but are in love with and can't live without.

His guilt is assauged because he uses "cosmic" reasons and the logical need for another heir, as well as telling himself and Lyanna he would be a better Husband to her than Robert, which on the subject of Robert, he is probably not wrong.

(When you are Aegon the Unworthy, you can be as bad as you want, take as many women as you want, and not justify it, because you are bad and don't care. If you are good, and do something like that, you need a really great reason and justification. Prophesy sure fits that bill).

And as far as this prophesy that Rhaegar is so obcessed with goes, we hear no reports of him lending his name, or influence to do something really actionable like recruiting better men for the Wall, getting them better supplies and financial support. His own relative was on the Wall, did Rhaegar ever even go North to look at this Wall that keeps the Others out?

My point is, is that Rhaegar has been made to be a little too perfect, perhaps too good to be true,(besides those are the descriptions of him PRIOR to meeting Lyanna), and not nearly Human enough.

He may have been so Human in fact, that when he finally met the love of his life, he lost all perpsective, wanted only one thing and would have done anything to have it- even pay with his life, as well as the lives of his family and hers, or anyone else that stood between them...."Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna and thousands died for it." - Selmy.

As for Lyanna, once taken, what was Lyanna going to do?

All it takes for her honor to be utterly ruined, is to be just one night in his company. Even if they never consumated their relationship, no one would believe it.

She really has no choice but to accept at this point what he has to offer, which is the protection of his name through marriage under whatever circumstances he proposes, (i.e, polygymy or setting Elia aside).

Again, she may be willful, but that doesn't mean she's not a realist about her situation, (and how the Starks do love their truths).

Marrying him, while angering her family, (as well as other powerful families in the Kingdom), is still preferable than being thought his whore. Throw a baby in the mix, and no one will continue to challenge it, or attempt to set it aside.

If she loves him, (AND YES, I TEND TO BELIEVE SHE DID), and he knows that as well as understands her, then Rhaegar affectively takes the angst, guilt, and burden off her heart for being together, risking for himself only dishonor in this deed, sparing her the guilt that would likely have haunted her and their relationship HAD she run off with him willingly.

He simply took it out of her hands.

A few more random thoughts.

Does anyone ever consider that Aerys killed Lyannas Father and Brother in such a brutal fashion not so much because it was the insane, over-the-top thing to do, but because he sought to drive a wedge of bitterness and hatred between Rhaegar and Lyanna, destroying the thing that kept his son in thrall?

There is some cunning even with madness.

Even mad Joffrey who had a right to fear Ned only gave him the axe.

[SFDanny]

Rhaegar had the makings of a good king, but he was utterly obsessed with a prophecy. There is a depression that is suggested in his personality; in fact, Rhaegar Targaryen was probably manic depressive. Reasonable and conservative future kings with an eye on the realpolitik situation don't run around abandoned ruins (summerhall) alone while their crazy father rules the country. Of course, it has been suggested that some great leaders (Abe Lincoln) were manic depressive, but let's start from the fact that he probably inherited the Targaryen mindset.

After that, take into account that Rhaegar felt that he must fulfill the PTWP prophecy above all else. He didn't care about the political realities associated with kidnapping Lyanna Stark; he just thought about the prophecy. Rhaegar was fully culpable for the situation (I give Lyanna a pass because she was a teen). He should have known better. In fact, my going belief is that the PTWP is only necessary because Rhaegar made it so with his actions. Political instability in the kingdom is the only way that the Others are going to be able to breach the Wall. And that political instability has been evident since Robert's Rebellion. Rhaegar and Lyann's union led to the PTWP but it also led to the necessity for that prince through their actions.

I think you are missing the point of the prophecy. Dragons, and the control of them is crucial in all of this. The dragonlords of old Valyria controlled dragons how? My guess, and it is only a guess, is that some of them did so with the same ability we call "warging" when it deals with the Starks and their wolves. It would make sense that the obsession of the Targaryens around keeping their "blood pure" has more to do with maintaining this inherited ability than it does to keeping platinum blond hair and violet eyes. They have lost the ability and have lost their dragons in the story's immediate background, but it is through a marriage of ice and fire - through the melding of those who birth the new dragons and those who bring back the ability of controlling the dragons through warging into them that humanity is saved from the threat of the Others. The PTWP and/or Azhor Ahai are not just a check list of things that happen before they kick the Other's tushes into oblivion. They represent specific abilities that are crucial to controlling the one weapon - dragons - that can bring about victory. Anyway, that's how I see it.

Oh, and in any evaluation of Rhaegar, I think it is important to start with this - Rhaegar was right. He had some of the details wrong, but he was right that his line is crucial in defeating a threat that overwhelms all other considerations in the story. A crazy, melancholic, dreamer with dreams of grandeur? Well, maybe, but one who sees real threats others can't or won't.

As for the ADWD Southern conspiracy, this is the first book that mentions the "conspiracy" and it is mentioned by an unreliable source, Lady Dustin. Lady Dustin wanted to be Lady Stark and felt that if she put out enough for Brandon that he'd marry her. I'm sure that there were slutty Stark heirs in the past and there were a few Lady Dustins who managed to seduce their way into the Stark family. What angered Lady Dustin is that Rickard Stark secured a better marriage with the Riverlands as well as a marriage with the Baratheons. Occam's razor suggests that Rickard was just lucky rather than scheming - his heir was a sexy, charismatic playboy and his only daughter was a wild, assertive beauty. Brandon and Lyanna were the two best cards that Rickard had to play and both were better cards than usual. Why not marry your Casanova heir to a southern lord with too many daughters rather than the Northern bannerman's daughter who was willing to sleep with him the most. As for Lyanna...Rickard could have probably married her to any family in tuthe Westros; she was the Starks great trump card. Robert Baratheon was likely the best match that Rickard could find for her. As for Ned, I highly doubt that the second son would entice Tywin Lannister (aka no Cersei marriage).

To your last point, I was talking about Rickard's scheme, not Tywin's. Tywin obviously wants to marry Cersei to Rhaegar, and I don't doubt he harbored hopes even after Rhaegar is married to Elia - given Elia's notoriously poor health. But we also know Tywin considers marrying Jaime to a second daughter of the Riverlands, so it is not out of the question that Rickard could have thought it possible he would have considered Ned as an option for Cersei, especially after the open split that takes place between Aerys and Tywin after Harrenhal. Would Tywin have joined in a conspiracy to oust the Targaryens after all the slights, public and private, that he receives from Aerys? My take is he would in a New York minute if he thought the conspirators would win. King of the Westerlands and revenge over Aerys would have been very tempting.

As to the rest, you are leaving out a third connection here. Not only does Rickard betroth two of his children to two other great houses, but he also fosters Ned with a third. This is more than good luck that he has desirable children. While such may be a consideration in the proposed marriage to Robert, it doesn't hold with Hoster Tully's personality that he is going to marry off Catelyn to Brandon because he is such a swashbuckling, charming fellow. The Lord of Riverrun is making a political alliance that it is important to take note of, not just pleasing his daughter by marrying her off to a handsome well connected guy. There is too much happening here to dismiss Lady Dustin's revelations as just sour grapes, and as to Occam's Razor - well, it just doesn't apply to fantasy literature.

I'd also note that her, meaning Lady Dustin, talk of southern ambitions is tied up into another conspiracy we are told about from another source. That being what the maesters of the citadel are up to as described by Marwyn in the epilogue of A Feast for Crows. Also note that Ser Barristan tells us of Aerys concern for what rebellious lords are up to at Harrenhal and we have plenty of reason to believe this isn't made up out of thin air.

[CJS 2207]

No your not a moron. :)

On this matter it could just be they didn't have a choice because of Elias condition.

(It could have been a "gods" send for Rhaegar, so that he actually has an arguable defense to put her aside).

And I think loving and marrying her for love, which this siginifigance would not be lost on the Dornish, would make Lyanna more dangerous to them.

If they could satisfy themselves that she's just a mistress, or paramour, then they can hope he'll tire of her eventually.

Or, as I said, maybe they don't blame Lyanna, because she wasn't at fault for Elias plight.

I do wonder though how long Lyanna would last if Rhaegar brought her back to KL?

Between Aerys, (if he's not been "retired"), the Martells and not to mention Tywin, Lyanna may have had to sleep with a sword.

Interesting hypothetical. I have wondered this myself... if Rhaegar brought Lyanna back to KL.

We know that Rhaegar mentioned something enigmatic to Jaime about making changes once he returned from the Trident. I wonder perchance if this would include bringing Lyanna (and baby Jon?) back to King's Landing.

Furthermore, Aerys downward spiral into madness must have been manifest to those close to him. Could a part of these "changes" Rhaegar spoke of include putting his father aside prematurely to pave the way for his own ascension?

The timing would be rather ideal, in my opinion. Had he conquered Robert on the Trident, quelled the rebellion, taken a second wife (who has given him a third child/head of a dragon in fulfillment of the prophecy) like Aegon the Conqueror, then who would oppose him?

Granted, it would still be treasonous to rid the realm of Aerys prematurely, but we know that the populace loved their Dragon Prince more than their King, if Cersei's recollection has any verity in it.

Be that as it may, I also feel that this scenario would doubtless meet with intransigence, opposition, and obstacle of some form or another from the other great houses in Westeros at the time, even with the hypothetical victory over House Baratheon and their supporters. After all, compliance was easier had for the Targaryens when they were not "dragonless"...

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Furthermore, Aerys downward spiral into madness must have been manifest to those close to him. Could a part of these "changes" Rhaegar spoke of include putting his father aside prematurely to pave the way for his own ascension?

I think that this was exactly what Rhaegar meant when he mentioned "changes." I think it had more to do with displacing Aerys than with bringing Lyanna to the capital, and probably everything to do with it.

[CJS 2207]

I think that this was exactly what Rhaegar meant when he mentioned "changes." I think it had more to do with displacing Aerys than with bringing Lyanna to the capital, and probably everything to do with it.

Good point.

Keeping her at the ToJ with three of the KG signified that he was at least hesitant to bring her north to KL, aside from the obvious allusions throughout Ned's flashbacks to her being with child.

I wonder if perhaps had he succeeded, Rhaegar would have restored Summerhall and moved Lyanna there?