The northmen inside and outside Winterfell. Conspiracy? The GNC - The Grand Northern Conspiracy

[Yeade]

Eira, I honestly don't know that much about the noble houses of the Vale, lol. Or anywhere else, for that matter! My speculations about an extended conspiracy to restore the Starks to power across all of Robb's former kingdom and the Vale is almost entirely based on what I perceive as GRRM's narrative need to begin tying up dangling political loose ends in the parts of Westeros bound to be hit by the Others first. Imminent annihilation by legendary ice zombies tends to put a hold on everything except survival, I imagine, Machiavellian scheming included, no matter how murderous.

As such, I figure the Boltons, Freys, and Littlefinger are done for starting about midway through TWOW, with Littlefinger hanging on the longest and Euron successfully toppled from the Seastone Chair in absentia, if not dead somewhere in Essos at Victarion or Dany's hands. Only then can the Wall be breached by the Others without wiping out everybody of consequence north of the Neck, IMO. I think matters elsewhere probably can't be resolved until Dany arrives at the start of ADOS, though Aegriff's role is to begin consolidating the military might of the southern houses in an alliance that Dany co-opts from him when she fulfills the mummer's dragon part of her "slayer of lies" prophecy, also finishing Varys in the process. The mess of the Iron Throne, Dorne, and Aegriff is an additional reason why I believe the North must soon unite, likely under Jon, because the North's ability to fight a delaying action against the Others buys time for the Lannisters, Tyrells, Martells, etc. to get straightened out politically, learn of the existential threat facing Westeros at long last, and rally to meet it, likely under Dany. Shoehorn the Citadel and Faceless Men subplot in however you wish!

Dramatically, if the above is correct, TWOW and ADOS may feel like one endless line of decisive epic battles, villains receiving their comeuppance, and the younger generation being really awesome. I, for one, am totally cool with that.

I've little to contribute now in terms of details that support the proposed conspiracies. You and tze seem to be handling things on that front well, anyways. ^_^

[The Sleeper]

Guys, I love the stuff that you are writing here bu tI think you are being too optimistic. This is Martin we are talking about, when does anything good happen?

Two things to consider.

All this time Bran has been watching this whole time.

If Stannis could gather 5000 men from the northern mountains and the wolfswood, I think it stands to reason that there are a lot more troops left in the North.

[Yeade]

just an Other, I'm not one to advocate happy times for fictional people of any variety just for the sake of being happy. Actually, my tastes in fanfic tend to run toward characterization by way of horrible torture, lol, especially for my favorites (bad news, Jon!).

What I'm currently concerned about is how GRRM plans to finish ASOIAF with narratively satisfying resolutions for his major characters and plotlines. As such, I favor theories, like this one, that make excellent use of existing details to funnel the story down to a point where some sort of denouement starts to become visible.

To approach this issue from another direction, if ADWD's revelations--Manderly's intent to betray the Boltons, the strength of northern loyalty to the Starks, Asha and Theon's loophole in challenging the kingsmoot to oust Euron, and Jon's fragile alliance with the wildlings--come to nothing at all with the Boltons crushing any rebellion to rule the North unchallenged, Stannis dying hopelessly in the snows outside Winterfell, Theon and Asha spending the rest of their miserable lives as Ramsay's prisoners, and the wildlings being wiped out by the Night's Watch in the melee at Castle Black, then scattered to the wilds, what's the goddamn point of ADWD?

For GRRM to hammer into his audience's heads that life sucks big time? As if that theme isn't obvious by the end of AGOT! For GRRM to showcase his skills as a writer? Personally, as enjoyable as I find GRRM's craft at points, appreciating this is not my primary motivation in reading his series. GRRM can do as he pleases with his work, of course, but it's my prerogative as a reader to decide I don't agree with the direction he's chosen to take his story and express my frustration in public forums like these boards.

If the most pessimistic predictions I've seen indeed prove true--such as Jon being truly dead or rising as an inhuman wight, the North spiraling into another round of bloodletting only for the Wall to fall and the Others to sweep wholesale across the continent, leaving despairing survivors in their wake... Well, I'd quit. Not because all this death and destruction is depressing, though it sure is, but because I'd deplore how very many wonderful potential character interactions and plot twists this kind of nihilistic storytelling would cut off at the knees. I'd never be able to look at ASOIAF again for anger at the missed opportunities. And I'm no literary critic to be interested in a novel solely for its philosophical implications of postmodern existentialism or whatever.

But I digress! :blush:

Um. As Bran hones his greenseer talents and learns how to communicate through ravens as well as the weirwood network and the Starks' familial warg bond, he can maybe serve as a completely secure and untraceable instantaneous intelligence channel for the Starks and their allies?

My thought's that skinchanging and greenseeing in general could serve as a means to track the progress of the Others when it's too risky to send human scouts. In a sense, the attempted assassination forces Jon to spend quality time warging in Ghost that he'd never have done otherwise given his duties as Lord Commander. However, as the odds-on favorite for supreme commander of the grand alliance against ice zombies, northern division, lol, Jon needs to understand the magical tools at his disposal and contact Bran. Who is, in the company of Bloodraven and the children of the forest, the best source for information about his enemy that he so sorely lacks at the moment.

So far as the North's manpower goes, I believe a couple threads discussing this topic conclude the North's possibly very underpopulated due to the harsh climate and unpredictable seasonal apocalypses, lol. That said, there may remain enough men of fighting age to form another army or two of decent size. I figure these would-be recruits are perhaps scattered throughout the wilderness, frantically farming isolated homesteads in a last-ditch effort to store food for the winter. I suppose one plus of the Others invading is that the northern population will be driven en masse into the Neck, where the kingdom's otherwise diffused military strength would be concentrated enough to mount a stiff defense, presumably supplied with food from the nearby Vale. Not a lot of training is required for any able-bodied man or woman to wave a torch at the undead s/he encounters either. I expect heavy casualties, civilian and military, all the same.

Man, I'm a little embarrassed how off-topic my post is! Won't delete it, of course. :laugh:

[Greggles]

Conspiracies of angry northmen are cool, especially when their motto "The North Remembers" translates to "We Know How to Hold a Grudge" [whimsical sidebar: as does Quebec's] and I think there is an endless load of evidence to support that theory.

Here's where I'm going to nit-pick. Why the hell is there a consensus that Rickon went to Skagos? The only evidence we have is Manderlies word to a southron lords loyal vassal (red herring, from one character to another) and Jon's dream of Shaggydog fighting a unicorn, a wonderful red herring from the author to the reader.

The vast majority dream sequences in aSoIaF are metaphorical, so why is everyone taking the unicorn dream so literally? Maybe Rickon is fighting with some-knight-or-other who's house emblem is a freaking unicorn? Maybe Osha killed a horse by ramming her spear up through the bottom of the horses head so that the spear stuck up out the top, and Jon is witnessing the feast?

Finally, to get to Skagos, consider Rickon's route: a) North up the Kingsroad which would roughly parallel Bran's route no way b ) North East, south of Long Lake through the Lonely Hills within spitting distance of The Dreadfort? nu-uh. c) Straight east? same problem d) West? Iron Born e) South down the Kings Road? No effing way.

Before getting the mercy from Osha told her that Manderly is a faithful subject of the Starks then Rickon and Osha went south east till they hit the White Knife and followed that down to White Harbour.

First post!

[Eyron]

@Greggles

I agree there is something strange about Rickons journey, and about Wex story. And believe me I am suspicious about it. But my conclusion so far is still that Rickon went to Skagos, however he got there.

Just because I can't see any reason for Manderly to send Davos to Skagos, if Rickon is not there.

If Manderly wanted Davos dead, well he could have done what he told the Freys he did, just kill him.

If he wanted leverage on Stannis, he could have held him hostage (though I don't think it would have had much impact of Stannis decisions).

If he wanted an alliance with Stannis, he could have sent Davos back.

If he wanted the Skagosi to rally their forces to him or to the Starks, why send Davos? Manderly lives in White Harbour, he has access to sailors and experienced crew, probably even some pirates that he could strike a deal with who have knowledge of the waters. And why would he lie to Davos if this was the purpose of the mission? If Davos goes to the Skagosi looking for Rickon, I can't see any reason for the Skagosi to spontaneously follow him to Westeros for this reason.

And If Manderly does not intend for Davos to go to Skagos at all, what could the reason be to lie to him? I really can't see any plausible options left. If you do please share them with us.

[Eyron]

Guys, I love the stuff that you are writing here bu tI think you are being too optimistic. This is Martin we are talking about, when does anything good happen?

Two things to consider.

All this time Bran has been watching this whole time.

If Stannis could gather 5000 men from the northern mountains and the wolfswood, I think it stands to reason that there are a lot more troops left in the North.

I have to say I am not that optimistic, sometimes I express my wishes at the same time as I discuss the conspiracies so I think that I can be misleading you a bit.

That a conspiracy exists does not say that it will be successful, that is where my pessimistic side takes over so I think we will see some of the plots come to nothing. But I think it is pretty clear in the textual evidence that conspiracies exist, in the North and in the Vale, we can't know exactly who is on and who is out or how the plot is planned to work or what the outcome will be.

The lords and people involved in the plans will want to have as many allies as possible but minimize the risk of letting out information to anyone that might reveal it to the targets. So there would be little talk but actions could still force the other lords and ladies to chose sides in the situation. Roose and Lady Dustin are very well aware that Manderly and some others are conspiring against the Boltons and/or the Freys, they do not know if word is out about Ramsay burning Winterfell or Arya=Jeyne so they don't know what the motives are and how the pieces are going to fall when action is taken. And Roose and anyone still loyal to him surely are planning something to take Manderly down (and anyone following him), but sitting inside Winterfell in a snowstorm with a group of enemies planning his and the Freys demise limits his possibilities. And the fact that the other lords might rise against Bolton if he chooses to let the Freys go free and unharmed makes his plans even harder to accomplish, he needs the Freys to keep the northmen in shack and he needs to let the northmen take out the Freys (to satisfy their lust for revenge) if he wants to rule the north.

I think at the end of ADWD some of the action in Winterfell has already taken place, and it seems Ramsay is still at large, perhaps escaped. This makes me believe that Roose Bolton is dead (by Ramsays or other northmen's hands) or captured by northmen. I think the Freys at Winterfell are pretty much gone and with them some of the northern lords.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Lady Dustin is up to something with Ramsay, maybe she is manipulating him to kill Roose as a subplot to the grande scheme, only to have him work for his own demise. Without his father Ramsay is doomed, none of the lords will follow him unless he has hostages. Or she is working with him and all her animosity was just an act in case Theon had been contacted by other northmen to reveal their plans. Maybe she did not care much for Domeric after all, but this is more unlikely to me than the first theory.

How do you think Bran would interfere in the events? I think seeing is one thing and actually trying to change the course of events is a completely different matter. And as of yet we don't know how he has interfered in the events even if he already has, it would have been off screen except him saying Theon's name.

[Howlin' Howland Reed]

I love this idea of the Grand Northern Conspiracy and, as Eira points out, it doesn't have to unfold to a T. It would be dramaturgically weird in the long run, however, if the likes of Roose and Ramsay always get away with their evil machinations (and things are already unravelling, with our without a large conspiracy) so some measure of success for Manderly, and possibly others, is not unlikely. (Or so I'd like to believe...)

[Eyron]

Exactly Howlin'!

I keep thinking about the opposite scenario:

The Boltons overpower all of the other northmen, kill Rickon and his wolf, Jon is dead-dead and Theon is made Reek again (or killed before revealing Jeyne to anyone) since the Boltons win the battle against Stannis, so Ramsay is now officially Lord of Winterfell and Roose is Warden of the north. The northmen left pillage and burn the countryside where the Boltons don't do it themselves. The factions at the Wall go into battle leaving nothing left.

We have already had this, it was the Lannisters take-over, Neds execution, the RW, the Riverlands, Gregor Clegane and Duskendale and the surrender of Riverrun.

I don't expect everything to be peachy in the north in TWOW, but if we don't get a little bit of satisfying revenge I think it will be too repetitive storytelling, and the suspense will be lost for the rest of the series. I don't expect the series to end in joy and harmony, but if the last two books turn out to be nothing more than a long painful road downhill to utter ruin without any glimpses of hope until the Starks all dead and all their enemies prevail, well I think it would suck and also that it was not a very good story after all.

[The Sleeper]

My point actually was that most of these theories seemed to point to an immediate and clean resolution of the situation at Winterfell and in the North in general, with all the houses in the North rejoicing in the restoration of house Stark as kings in the North.

The only ones I see clinging stubbornly to their loyalty to house Stark are the Mormonts. Manderly might be reasonably loyal, but as the head of the richest and arguably the most powerful house in the North sees this as an opportunity to rule the North by proxy. Even after he gets Rickon as he plans he could still bend the knee on his behalf to the Iron Throne as who would think getting rid of five-year old puppet is worth the effort, particularly when they have much more pressing concerns of their own. The rest are basically unknowns. We can assume that they get goosebumps in the idea of being ruled by Ramsay Bolton and generally agree that any Stark is needed for any kind of peace in the North but we just don't know how far they'll go. Laying your head low is a time-honoured survival tactic especialy with winter coming. I find it hard to believe that any of them are as bullheaded as the mountain clans.

As far as the battle goes. You have from one side the Freys and the Manderlys who were looking for a chance to turn on each other and from the other side the mountain clans who march to the beat of their own drummer and now their primary objective ("Arya") just fell into their lap, Stannis, whose men can't basically hold up their swords and the Karstarks who are basically just waiting to stab Stannis in the back. Can you imagine a better recipe for absolute chaos?

As far as Jayne goes? Why on earth would she or Theon ever tell anybody that they she is not the real deal. She would become instantly irrelevent and even if she told there are those who would still want to use her as the Bolton's did and present themselves as the saviors of "Ned's girl".

I am also a horror fan myself, so normally I like seeing characters get creatively and grapically tortured, maimed and killed. In that respect Ramsay would be one of my favorite characters. In this case I would like to see some positive outcomes for the Starks but most importantly I would like to see them make it happen themselves.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I really like the idea of a big northern conspiracy, and I think the evidence is there that things aren't what they seem. With Lady Dustin, for instance, it seemed like she was laying on the Stark hatred a little too strongly, and it might be that she expected Theon to report back what he heard to Ramsay.

I'll just reiterate that we don't know where the Blackfish is or where he was headed, or who (*cough* Jeyne *cough*) might be with him.

[Greggles]

@Greggles

Just because I can't see any reason for Manderly to send Davos to Skagos, if Rickon is not there.

If Manderly wanted Davos dead, well he could have done what he told the Freys he did, just kill him.

If he wanted leverage on Stannis, he could have held him hostage (though I don't think it would have had much impact of Stannis decisions).

If he wanted an alliance with Stannis, he could have sent Davos back.

If he wanted the Skagosi to rally their forces to him or to the Starks, why send Davos? Manderly lives in White Harbour, he has access to sailors and experienced crew, probably even some pirates that he could strike a deal with who have knowledge of the waters. And why would he lie to Davos if this was the purpose of the mission? If Davos goes to the Skagosi looking for Rickon, I can't see any reason for the Skagosi to spontaneously follow him to Westeros for this reason.

And If Manderly does not intend for Davos to go to Skagos at all, what could the reason be to lie to him? I really can't see any plausible options left. If you do please share them with us.

Good points all. My hesitation in believing that Rickon is actually at Skagos is because the evidence is so weak and his path to it is so impassable. Manderlies word to Davos is unreliable, none of the Northmen want Stannis as king. They want him OUT.

Everyone is interpreting Jon's dream of Shaggydog fighting a unicorn way too literally. There are many multiple threads on this forum dissecting all the possible nuanced meanings of peoples dreams, but for this one everyone is happy to take it as is. I've checked through the (frighteningly) extensive wiki looking for a northron house with unicorn for a symbol to no results unfortunately so I don't have any counter evidence.

I'm speculating I'll admit, but I think it's far more likely that Rickon ended up at or near Whiteharbour than wandering through the lands of the Dreadfort/running north up the kingsroad and finding a boat with a crew willing to sail to an island known for it's hostility, cannibalism and shipwrecks.

So sending his trusted Hand on a wild goose chase to one of the most remote (and inherently dangerous?) parts of Westeros seems like a good way to weaken Stannis and provide ample coverage of Manderlies considerable ass should things go wrong, which they frequently do in GRRM's world. Davos makes it back alive and sane from Skaggos and without Rickon? 'That bastard Wex lied to us,' says Manderly. 'Let's eat him!' Or some other subterfuge.

If you and I take the northern conspiracy seriously (which I do) Manderly has been working assiduously to keep his hands clean for an extended period of time and wouldn't want to alert anyone until all his ducks are lined up.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Good points all. My hesitation in believing that Rickon is actually at Skagos is because the evidence is so weak and his path to it is so impassable. Manderlies word to Davos is unreliable, none of the Northmen want Stannis as king. They want him OUT.

Everyone is interpreting Jon's dream of Shaggydog fighting a unicorn way too literally. There are many multiple threads on this forum dissecting all the possible nuanced meanings of peoples dreams, but for this one everyone is happy to take it as is. I've checked through the (frighteningly) extensive wiki looking for a northron house with unicorn for a symbol to no results unfortunately so I don't have any counter evidence.

Completely disagree about your views on Skagos. I think that's why Martin gave so much earlier information about Skagos and showed Shaggydog fighting the one-horned goat, so that when it came time for Davos to go after Rickon, readers would already have a good idea of where Rickon was without it being fully revealed.

There are a lot of things that readers take way too literally (Lightbringer being an actual sword, for instance), but Shaggydog fighting the goat isn't one of them. Wolf dreams are not necessarily the same thing as "foggy" prophetic dreams, and they tend to unfold rather literally. Like in Clash of Kings, when Bran dreamed that he, as Summer, brought down an elk with Shaggydog, it meant that the wolves had actually brought down an actual elk.

[Eyron]

just an Other

I agree that theories sometimes are too optimistic, but I think most of us have made a point in differentiating what we think and what we want.

The "wants" are not part of the theories, but what we think sometimes support what we want.

Like the case of Rickard Starks wife a Skagosi, I believe it because it makes sense to the story, I have no personal investment in the matter, to me she could be a wildling or Ironborn or a Tallhart I don't really care, but the way the story unfolds points to Skagos being important for SOME reason and this is the only plausible alternative to me.

We know some houses that are loyal to the Starks, but most importantly ALL the northmen (except Bolton of course) are looking for revenge for the Red Wedding, they all lost family and men there, and the old way is that they demand a blood price, a life for a life. And many lost family and men outside the Walls of Winterfell when ser Rodrik Cassel rallied men to retake it from Theon, and they were slaughtered by Ramsay, with Rooses blessing. And then there was Duskendale, also a brilliant Bolton idea. So even those that are not especially loyal to the Starks have very good reason to take part in the Boltons and Freys demise.

About the clansmen with Stannis, they say they are there for Arya's sake, but it could just as easily be that they are there for another purpose.

We don't even know if they are helping Stannis at all, did they really take him the most direct way to Winterfell? They already knew Bran was alive, and they did not try to stop him on his way. They live close to Bear Island, and should have exchanged words with Alysane or Maege Mormont at some point, very likely even before they joined Stannis. When they hear the news of the situation in Winterfell from Tycho Nestoris I am not sure they will be satisfied with having "Arya". They are the most "original" of the northmen, they are the ones that would know best that there always must be a Stark in Winterfell and the reason for it. The Royces are like this too, we remember are their words. They hold strongly to the old ways (i.e. bronze armor with runes of the First men on it) and know things others have forgotten.

I think there will be chaos too, but I don't care if Stannis troops die right there in the snow, the clansmen will just leave them behind is what I think, they have no loyalty for Stannis, as mentioned before they have most certainly not sworn him any fealty. Where would they go then if not to Winterfell to restore either Arya or whatever Stark they support to it? Would they go home with fake Arya to the mountains all of it would just be pointless. They came with Stannis to defeat Bolton and retake Winterfell.

So some of the Northmen will fight out of loyalty, some will fight for their own revenge and some will fight for more obscure reasons that are part of the secrets of the north. I happen to believe Winterfell is a very important place, for reasons other than being the castle of the Starks.

Greggles thank you for doing research for us all :) Maybe it's the Magnar of Skagos that has a unicorn on his coat of arms...

I can't see the reason for Manderly to try to cover his bases with Stannis by sending Davos on a wild goose chase to Skagos, better to have him sitting in that fancy prisoncell. Davos is officially dead, executed by Manderly, all of Westeros knows it. Stannis would know soon enough, so if he prevails and if Manderly can't pull Davos out of his pocket because he died at sea or Skagos, well Manderly will feel really stupid.

Apple Martini you are so right about the wolfdreams, they usually are literal and I don't think they can be compared to the prophetic dreams or even greendreams. They are wolfdreams and wolfs are mentally connected all the time, so they are not "dreaming" per se.

Oh and about the Blackfish and Jeyne Westerling, I am on team "switched". If GRRM bothers to describe a woman's hips twice, there is a reason for it.

[Greggles]

Apple Martini and Eira,

I stand refuted on the wolf dreams. But my mind still rebels at the suggestion that Rickon is actually at Skaggos mainly because of the route he and Osha would have to take overland and then having to get shipped across to the island.

I'd forgotten that Davos was 'executed' so, my bad there. But I'm still not sold that it isn't a wild goose chase. Sending Stannis' most loyal subject to rescue Rickon seems a little naive for the devious Manderly. After all, upon collecting the only living non-bastard Stark out there it would be predictable that Davos, rather than returning to Whiteharbour would take the shorter route to The Wall and deliver the potential puppet to Stannis?

If I can see that potential, wouldn't Manderly?

[Pliskin]

Manderly wants a Stark in Winterfell, but he's willing to take Stannis as his king.

He also needed Davos's skills as smuggler to get to Skaggos and find Rickon.

[Eyron]

Greggles you certainly fight for your ideas, I like that. But so do I...

I don't think Davos will go alone, I am sure Manderly sends a crew with him, with knives :)

I will be hard for Davos to trick them into sailing the wrong way and not return to White Harbour.

When I looked at the map the route north does not seem to be so close to the Dreadfort, it would be taking them through the Wolfswood into the Umbers land and from there they could go east.

I still agree that the story seems strange, and they could have gotten there some other way.

[Eyron]

Manderly wants a Stark in Winterfell, but he's willing to take Stannis as his king.

He also needed Davos's skills as smuggler to get to Skaggos and find Rickon.

Yep, this seems to be forgotten sometimes, but I am not sure he will bend the knee to Stannis if he does not have to.

About the loyalty for the Starks, the Manderlys have sworn an oath to the Starks, a very old one and Wyman is bound to it with his honour. Some people in Westeros don't care about honour but believe Wyman Manderly does. I mean where do little Wyllas ideas come from? She is superloyal to the Starks and she must have picked that up from someone right?

[Lady of Long Lake]

I don't expect everything to be peachy in the north in TWOW, but if we don't get a little bit of satisfying revenge I think it will be too repetitive storytelling, and the suspense will be lost for the rest of the series. I don't expect the series to end in joy and harmony, but if the last two books turn out to be nothing more than a long painful road downhill to utter ruin without any glimpses of hope until the Starks all dead and all their enemies prevail, well I think it would suck and also that it was not a very good story after all.

Ohhh those books will pay, if that comes to pass.....

A Game of Thrones- tied to the bumper of my car and left to drag till only twine remained

A Clash of Kings- splash, as the book goes down into my septic tank that won't need pumping till 2013

A Storm of Swords- paper shredder, page by page

Feast for Crows- lining my cockatiel's cage for his droppings

A Dance With Dragons- I will mail order some termites and put them and the book in a secure cage.

Winds of Winter- I will buy a blowtorch and learn on youtube how to use it

Dream of Spring- I will bury it page by page and let the worms enjoy it. My garden is 150 feet long, so it's doable I think

[Eyron]

:bowdown:

I can't stop laughing!

Thank you for the ideas! You really put your heart into that I see :lol:

I think we could make day of it, get together all fans and have a ceremonial bonfire :) "Hatch" some eggs on the pile of books mayhaps

[Greggles]

Eira,

With Meera and Jojenporridge being so dead set against taking the Kingsroad north to the Wall I'm still not willing to bet Bran ran to Skagos via the Umbars or Karstarks. I mean, a crippled kid riding on the back of Hodor accompanied by a direwolf is more recognizable than a wildling, feral Mad Max kid and a black direwolf but still! The only thing Osha, Rick and Shaggydog have going for them is stealth until they get to a place of safety and the Kingsroad (and yeah Osha said they'd take the east gate and follow the kingsroad for 'a little ways')

Manderly sending one of his own ships and men with knives to 'assist' Davos makes a lot of sense, I'll grant you. But we're still assuming that Manderly thinks Rickon is there.

So, avoiding the Bolton Lands means going up the Kingsroad, (not getting spotted mind you) up to the Umbars/Karstarks/Eastwatch. Convince someone with a boat to sail Osha, Rickon and the barely controllable Shaggydog to a cannibal infested island surrounded by reefs and treacherous currents. Then finding sanctuary amongst people of the supposedly-Skagosi Lady Stark and chilling out there for a year or so.

I find this problematic.

South down the Kingsroads ('for a little ways') makes way more sense to me. Where from there? Whiteharbour, makes sense to me. Manderly playing a head game on Davos makes sense to me as a hedge against Stannis somehow coming out on top...