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The northmen inside and outside Winterfell. Conspiracy? The GNC - The Grand Northern Conspiracy


Eyron

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As I see it the Northmen are quite tough. Living up north during winter..only the strong survive and all that.

So while they may be lower in numbers than in the south, they are worth more pr man in a fight.

Robb was more or less outnumbered in all his battles and came out the victor still.

Plus I think logistics play a rather big factor..

If you want to have a supply line from the south, it's no good if you are terrorised by minor houses and clans along the way.

Yeah well, that's why I have a problem with the way Martin has depicted the battles involving Northmen.

At the Green Fork, Tyrion - a friggin dwarf with no battle experience - kills one or two Northmen without dying himself. That means two dead Northmen for zero dead Southerners.

Then we hear that at the Whispering Wood Jaime Lannister cleaved through half a dozen Northmen trying to get to Robb Stark before finally being captured. That's half a dozen dead Northmen with zero dead Southerners.

Then, when an overwhelming force of Northmen ambush Asha's party in the Wolfswood in Dance, Asha - a WOMAN! - manages to kill about 4 or 5 Northmen before the Middle Liddle finally manages to beat her down.

And she was not alone. Apparantly she and her fellow Ironmen were keeping score as to who could kill the most Northmen before they were overwhelmed. And almost all of them were running fairly high numbers before finally being defeated.

So again, more Northmen die than Ironborn.

Then, in Winterfell, when the Freys try to slice lord Manderley's throat open, all hell breaks loose, but we are told that at the end there are two dead Freys and 6 dead Manderley guardsmen.

So once AGAIN, about 3 dead Northmen for every dead Frey.

So my point is, I HATE the way in which Martin has the Northmen consistently looking like inferior fighters whenever they encounter southern knights or Ironborn raiders.

Where is this supposed Northern hardiness we hear about? And how come the North even survives today if their men always seem to die in proportionally greater numbers than their southern foes?

It pisses me off greatly.

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@Free Northman I sure agree with your sentiments. At the Tower of Joy it was 7 northmen against 3 kingsguard, the northemen were horribly outnumbered; but it was as if there were 70 southerners against the same 3 kingsguard, by GRRM's accounting. We just never read about any of those battles. :dunno:

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That still begs the question of where the Blackfish (with or without Jeyne) would go. I think there could be some awesome stuff going down in the Riverlands. Tom O'Sevens is a mole in Frey-held Riverrun, UnCat is still on the loose, the Blackfish is ... who the hell knows where, and you have captives at the Twins (like the Greatjon) who are just begging for a jailbreak. Not to mention the possibility that there are anywhere from a few hundred to maybe a thousand northern fighters stranded down south and left leaderless.

I am interested in that left behind northern force too, I so wonder where they will turn up next.

No one could ever prove that a Westerling child is indeed Robb's offspring.

Robb's heir will be one of his brothers. No one else.

If Jeyne is alive and pregnant, she is the wife of the late King in the North, many can attest to her identity and many would know from the time-frame that she got pregnant when she was married to him.

I don't think this will necessarily will be of much importance, the child would be just a baby and can't wield any power, but it would be possible to use the child as a rally point for the north.

The important thing is that we now see how hard the allies are working to restore any available Stark to power, we get to see all kinds of plots and disguises used to save the Starks that are left. And I think we will see some of these attempts give fruit.

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But we've seen Northmen use horns on multiple occasions. They don't use trumpets, but they certainly do use horns.

The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that Ned's mother had to have been from Skagos. If any of the Northmen currently in Winterfell were close cousins to the Stark kids, Roose would have commented on it during his little convo with Ramsay (as evidence that they're trying to screw over the Boltons). For that matter, if any of the Northmen we've yet seen were Lord Rickard's in-laws, somebody would have mentioned it----the Starks are northern royalty, being close kin to them is something any northern House would be bragging about at every opportunity. If she was from a southern House, it would have been mentioned during Robb's sojourn south, since at the very least southern cousins would be potential anti-Lannister allies.

Skagos sounds like the only place left where she could come from which would logically explain why her family hasn't yet been mentioned.

Who wants to bet they have a secret handshake? They've already got the secret password.

I can't decide if we're seeing multiple independent anti-Bolton conspiracies, or if everybody in the North save the Karstarks (and Boltons, of course) are plotting together. We can associate Manderly, Umber, Locke, and Glover (via Robett). But we can also associate Glover (Galbart) with Mormont (Maege), and Mormont (Alysanne) with the hill clans. We know Alysanne was in contact with her mother because she knew her sisters were with Maege. So Alysanne should be in on Maege's plans, and the Glovers should be in on the Mormonts' plans. That ties the Mormonts in with the Manderly conspiracy. We can associate Dustin with Ryswell (since Barbrey was born a Ryswell), and if we can associate Dustin with Manderly (if she was really in the crypts to confirm the missing swords), then we can associate Dustin, Ryswell, Manderly, Umber, Locke, and Glover. The hill clans are tied to the Flints currently in Winterfell, and the hill clans and Alysanne Mormont are probably working together (if not initially, then almost undoubtedly they are by now), so add them to the list. Who else is a factor?

There's no way the Karstarks are in on anybody's plots---Robb killed Lord Rickard and the Karstarks deserted him, so there's no way they'd be trusted. Even Alys was afraid that Jon would hold a grudge and refuse to help her. (Though actually, Alys's actions might cast an interesting light on the rest of the Northern lords' actions; Alys isn't in on anyone else's plans, so if everybody else is working very hard to keep Stannis and the Lannisters from looking at Jon, Alys wouldn't know that. That would explain why she thinks it's logical to run to "the last son of Eddard Stark" for help, where the rest of the North seems to be very consciously trying not to draw attention to Jon.)

He wasn't at the will signing, but he took off after privately meeting with Edmure, who was at the signing and knows who the heir is. For that matter, the Blackfish was Robb's closest adviser; Robb would logically have discussed who he wanted as his heir with the Blackfish before drawing up the will, so Ser Brynden was probably aware of who the heir would be before Edmure even told him.

In fact, the Blackfish's whole spiel to Jaime makes no sense at all unless you assume he's trying to divert the Lannisters' attention away from Jon. He's going on about how untrustworthy Jon is, on the basis that Catelyn never liked him, yet the Blackfish is saying this to the Kingslayer---i.e., the guy Catelyn foolishly freed in exchange for a verbal promise. He was trumpeting Catelyn's great ability to read people to the guy who is living proof of Catelyn's terrible judgment.

Can I just say that most people would consider Catelyn Tully Stark's actions as being mostly done from grief at losing Bran and Rickon and her daughters (Sansa married to the Imp, Arya likely dead) so soon after losing Ned.

So, Brynden relying on Cat's judgment while under more "normal" circumstances, isn't all that weird. And certainly Blackfish would know that Jaime himself would not consider Cat's actions in freeing Jaime as "unhinged", though tactically bad, perhaps.

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no they are just waiting for the right moment to betray roose ( Why am thinking it will be theon giving the signal?)

I am not sure I understand your meaning here, do you mean you don't agree with the plot idea, but you agree they will betray Roose?

Or do you mean the lords I brought forth in my original post: Locke, Ryswell and Lady Dustin?

Theon is already gone from Winterfell, how would he give the signal? He is not part of any scheme against the Boltons. Maybe he will be in the future though.

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The question I still ask is - once the King in the North isssue is resolved, will it have any meaning in terms of actual manpower? What level of army will a Stark King in the North be able to put in the field at the end of Winds of Winter, presuming he is crowned during the next book?

Stannis seems desperate to get the North to rise for him, and we see a number of remarks during Dance about the fact that the lords of the North will rise if one of Ned Stark's sons takes the seat of Winterfell. So clearly having the North "rise" for you is something of military significance beyond a couple of thousand green boys with borrowed spears.

So what does this actually mean? If the North DOES rise, will the King in the North be a real King in terms of his military power? Or will even the Tatterred Prince be able to outnumber Winterfell's combined forces?

A King in the Nort will be able to field at least 30 000 men, plus possible new recruits in unknown number. There are already 12 000 soldiers running around the North and three quarter of the Northern armies are not yet participating. So, half of the Tyrells strength, but more than twice the Lannisters remaining "strength".

Yeah well, that's why I have a problem with the way Martin has depicted the battles involving Northmen.

At the Green Fork, Tyrion - a friggin dwarf with no battle experience - kills one or two Northmen without dying himself. That means two dead Northmen for zero dead Southerners.

Then we hear that at the Whispering Wood Jaime Lannister cleaved through half a dozen Northmen trying to get to Robb Stark before finally being captured. That's half a dozen dead Northmen with zero dead Southerners.

Then, when an overwhelming force of Northmen ambush Asha's party in the Wolfswood in Dance, Asha - a WOMAN! - manages to kill about 4 or 5 Northmen before the Middle Liddle finally manages to beat her down.

And she was not alone. Apparantly she and her fellow Ironmen were keeping score as to who could kill the most Northmen before they were overwhelmed. And almost all of them were running fairly high numbers before finally being defeated.

So again, more Northmen die than Ironborn.

Then, in Winterfell, when the Freys try to slice lord Manderley's throat open, all hell breaks loose, but we are told that at the end there are two dead Freys and 6 dead Manderley guardsmen.

So once AGAIN, about 3 dead Northmen for every dead Frey.

So my point is, I HATE the way in which Martin has the Northmen consistently looking like inferior fighters whenever they encounter southern knights or Ironborn raiders.

Where is this supposed Northern hardiness we hear about? And how come the North even survives today if their men always seem to die in proportionally greater numbers than their southern foes?

It pisses me off greatly.

In my opinion it's more of the relationship between knights* and common men-at-arms and readers view. Tyrion at the Green Fork is trained and equipped as a knight, and he still survives only through luck (or plot armor). Jaime is arguably the best swordsman alive and clad in full plate. There is nothing about his men, they get annihilated with barely any losses. Asha and her men are some of the best fighters in the Iron Islands, trained since birth, experienced and armored way better than their clan counterparts. And again, only those living long enough to kill some Northmen are mentioned - maybe three quarter off them just died in the first 30 seconds without drawing blood once.

And Manderley and his men were partly unarmed and completely without armor, sitting on benches while the Freys were completely armed and armored up standing ready.

* knights in sense of training, experience and armor, not the title. Irc a knight was considered as powerful as 15 or 20 infantrymen. Maybe some history buff recalls the exact number.

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FWIW, I believe Asha and Rickon were shipwrecked on Skagos. Somewhere -- AFFC? ADWD? -- there's a mention of a cog (a type of Westerosi ship) shipwrecked on an island (I think in a dream of either Jon's or Bran's) and after that we hear that Rickon is probably on Skagos.

And I believe all Northern hell is going to break loose on the Boltons and the Freys -- in fact, I think it's a trifle unrealistic of them to allow themselves to be surrounded by hostile Stark bannermen, even though the Frey's are holding hostages. After all, if ALL the Freys are killed, there won't be anyone to tell the people at the Twins what happened, will there? The Northerners could claim that Stannis killed them all as they were bravely defending Winterfell in King Tommen's name, or some such nonsense.

Anyway, however it falls out, I'm eager to read it, and I'm also eager to see what happens in the Riverlands. AFFC seemed to be setting the stage for a massive reversal of fortune for the Lannisters and their allies. Events have shown that no Stark enemy is safe outside of a fortress in the Riverlands, but at the end of the book we have the convoy containing Edmure and Jeyne crossing the Riverlands toward Casterley Rock, and Jaime ordering the Freys to send their hostages to the King. Consider the dangers: Nymeria and her pack getting bolder, Lady Stoneheart taking over the BWB and hanging every Frey and Lannister the gang can get their hands on, Tom O'Sevens inside Riverrun, passing information to the bandits and acting as a one-man Trojan horse. Then Jaime, the only person who had a handle on the whole situation, goes missing. Wheee! Let the games begin!

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I am not sure I understand your meaning here, do you mean you don't agree with the plot idea, but you agree they will betray Roose?

Or do you mean the lords I brought forth in my original post: Locke, Ryswell and Lady Dustin?

Theon is already gone from Winterfell, how would he give the signal? He is not part of any scheme against the Boltons. Maybe he will be in the future though.

Roose himself said it: One wrong action or word and they are gone and i mean all houses(even his own troops IMHO)

By vouching that Arnolf inteant to betray Stannis( he saw him with his own eyes in the dreadfort) and Telling somecalled the Truth

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Roose himself said it: One wrong action or word and they are gone and i mean all houses(even his own troops IMHO)

By vouching that Arnolf inteant to betray Stannis( he saw him with his own eyes in the dreadfort) and Telling somecalled the Truth

You did not specify what you were answering to in your previous post, so I don't know what you are talking about really. But I agree with what you are saying here, and I think the reason Manderly was so rude to the Freys when little Walder was found was that it "was time", time to take action.

Theons escape was not part of the northmen's plot I think, he does not know what Manderly and co are doing. Stannis will surely be told about Karstark working for Bolton, but I don't see it as some kind of signal to begin the attack on the Freys and Boltons.

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You did not specify what you were answering to in your previous post, so I don't know what you are talking about really. But I agree with what you are saying here, and I think the reason Manderly was so rude to the Freys when little Walder was found was that it "was time", time to take action.

Theons escape was not part of the northmen's plot I think, he does not know what Manderly and co are doing. Stannis will surely be told about Karstark working for Bolton, but I don't see it as some kind of signal to begin the attack on the Freys and Boltons.

Wasn't Stannis sitting in that tower looking in the fires? Does he see things too, like Melisandre? I had the feeling when I read that he might have 'seen' Arnolf betraying him in the flames. If so,it is possible that Arnolf might be meeting R'hllor soon.
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Wasn't Stannis sitting in that tower looking in the fires? Does he see things too, like Melisandre? I had the feeling when I read that he might have 'seen' Arnolf betraying him in the flames. If so,it is possible that Arnolf might be meeting R'hllor soon.

I really hope Stannis can't see anything in those flames, because then he could see what the other northmen are planning too and maybe destroy their (ahem... our) fine plot. But I am sure he will be told about Arnolf, and he does have kingsblood does he not? From the Starks... So maybe we will see a change in weather soon, that is what they pray for IIRC.

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So far as the North's manpower goes, I believe a couple threads discussing this topic conclude the North's possibly very underpopulated due to the harsh climate and unpredictable seasonal apocalypses, lol. That said, there may remain enough men of fighting age to form another army or two of decent size. I figure these would-be recruits are perhaps scattered throughout the wilderness, frantically farming isolated homesteads in a last-ditch effort to store food for the winter. I suppose one plus of the Others invading is that the northern population will be driven en masse into the Neck, where the kingdom's otherwise diffused military strength would be concentrated enough to mount a stiff defense, presumably supplied with food from the nearby Vale. Not a lot of training is required for any able-bodied man or woman to wave a torch at the undead s/he encounters either. I expect heavy casualties, civilian and military, all the same.

Man, I'm a little embarrassed how off-topic my post is! Won't delete it, of course. :laugh:

Don't worry about digress in any topic I created, I believe in long leashes, it spurs creativity like yours after all :thumbsup:

I think Manderly mentioned that many of the peoples in the north had come to White Harbour for shelter since the winterstown in Winterfell no longer could be used as usual. So many of these scattered folks already are gathered there.

I half expect to see a mass emigration to other locations, the south of Westeros, the Vale or even Essos, with White Harbour as the site of departure.

Strategically I can also see the Neck as the best defence post, and then we can finally get a POV there, something we should have before the series has ended or all the building up about the crannogmen was just useless.

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Well, I for one relish the thought of the North finally getting sneaky. It seems every major house has it's secrets and subterfuge:

Tyrrels: The Whole Renly becoming king thing

Dorne: Secret pact between The Prince and Viserys

The Vale: Death of John Arryn

Lannisters: I don't have the time or the patience to list is all.

So finally the North is getting in on the party! Better late than never...

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this all sounds wicked awesome. northern conspiration with the vale. woot!

as for rickon, i can believe that he, shaggydog, and osha went past the dreadfort. that was the last place anyone was looking for him and it is possible that they were occupied with something else. like rounding up men for the sack of winterfell. kinda like what pippin said in one fo the lotr movies "the closer we are to danger, the further we are from harm."

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this all sounds wicked awesome. northern conspiration with the vale. woot!

as for rickon, i can believe that he, shaggydog, and osha went past the dreadfort. that was the last place anyone was looking for him and it is possible that they were occupied with something else. like rounding up men for the sack of winterfell. kinda like what pippin said in one fo the lotr movies "the closer we are to danger, the further we are from harm."

Ha, yes though he did say that with full intentions of Sh!t hitting the fan.

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And I believe all Northern hell is going to break loose on the Boltons and the Freys -- in fact, I think it's a trifle unrealistic of them to allow themselves to be surrounded by hostile Stark bannermen, even though the Frey's are holding hostages. After all, if ALL the Freys are killed, there won't be anyone to tell the people at the Twins what happened, will there? The Northerners could claim that Stannis killed them all as they were bravely defending Winterfell in King Tommen's name, or some such nonsense.

Actually you might have hit on the reason why the Northerners join Stannis in the first place. I was wondering about that. Sure, it's only the Northerners who have no hostages at the Frey's like the Mormonts and the Clans. And then there's Karstark who is explicitely hoping that the Karstark hostage will be put to death.

But if there really is a conspiration, a believable assault by Stannis could assure that all the Freys could be killed without major repercussions to the remaining hostages. The conspiration could hide behind Stannis back, so to say, but act entirely for their own reason. Their interests converge for the moment, but I don't believe that the Northerners are true Stannis followers. That's why Stannis will be in for a surprise as well as the Boltons who I must wonder about. Surely they must be aware of their very weak position, surrounded by enemies, especially now that they've lost "Arya". Hmm, Roose should be at least... I wonder whether he still has some ace up his sleeve, but if not... the Boltons are done for.

Anyway, however it falls out, I'm eager to read it, and I'm also eager to see what happens in the Riverlands. AFFC seemed to be setting the stage for a massive reversal of fortune for the Lannisters and their allies. Events have shown that no Stark enemy is safe outside of a fortress in the Riverlands, but at the end of the book we have the convoy containing Edmure and Jeyne crossing the Riverlands toward Casterley Rock, and Jaime ordering the Freys to send their hostages to the King. Consider the dangers: Nymeria and her pack getting bolder, Lady Stoneheart taking over the BWB and hanging every Frey and Lannister the gang can get their hands on, Tom O'Sevens inside Riverrun, passing information to the bandits and acting as a one-man Trojan horse. Then Jaime, the only person who had a handle on the whole situation, goes missing. Wheee! Let the games begin!

Yeah, I expect a complete turn of the tables on the Lannisters very soon. They are very weak and vulnerable now. Their power completely depends on the Tyrells while their relationship to them is... strained. They managed to defeat the Northerners by treachery, but didn't foresee the consequences. They are hated by everybody now save only the direct beneficiaries (Freys and Boltons, though, the Freys' benefits are arguable. LF benefitted but is already set on betrayal, so the Lannister don't need to wait for support from that corner), everybody's waiting for an opportunity to oust them from power.

Aegon will occupy the Tyrell troops in the South, which the Northerners don't even know about atm. They do know that the North is a very difficult terrain for anybody trying to conquer it, so they don't need to fear any punitive expeditions. If the hostages get freed, all hold the Lannisters still have over the North, is gone.

It's also a literary necessity for the Anti-Bolton forces to prevail imho. Otherwise there would be no development at all, everything would be back to square one. And I really don't see the point in this. The downfall of the Boltons otoh will possibly merge some major story lines (the North and the Wall) and it will give LF something to chew on.

So I am rather confident that the Boltons will soon have their deserved comeuppance. Now it won't mean, everything will be fine and dandy. The Northerners agree that death and destructions should be brought on houses Frey and Bolton, they agree that a Stark should be in Winterfell. (Now we saw what happens, when a Stark isn't at Winterfell, didn't we? Chaos and destruction ensue, I wonder whether that's all that is to it...) I'm not sure they agree on which Stark after Rickon is produced, there's Jon to consider, Robb's heir after all and with the distinct advantage of being a grown up. There's Stannis and his bid to the Iron Throne which I am not sure the Northerners want to support. I got the feeling, it doesn't matter to them who sits the Iron Throne. And there's Sansa who could possibly be backed by the Vale Lords. Of course there's also a supernatural threat that noone but very few is aware of so far....

I really hope Stannis can't see anything in those flames, because then he could see what the other northmen are planning too and maybe destroy their (ahem... our) fine plot. But I am sure he will be told about Arnolf, and he does have kingsblood does he not? From the Starks... So maybe we will see a change in weather soon, that is what they pray for IIRC.

LOL, judging from his countenance it can't be anything good! :) He was also pretty bend on burning some people already to ensure Rh'llors good will. Since he hasn't acted against Karstark so far I think we can safely assume that he doesn't see anything of relevance in the flames, staring as he might. Even Melisandre doesn't see anything and she really should be better at this then Stannis, otherwise she has chosen the wrong job! I agree that Karstark either has already burnt or will be burnt very soon. The banker surely will tell him about the betrayal and Stannis is not a very forgiving man.

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FWIW, I believe Asha and Rickon were shipwrecked on Skagos. Somewhere -- AFFC? ADWD? -- there's a mention of a cog (a type of Westerosi ship) shipwrecked on an island (I think in a dream of either Jon's or Bran's) and after that we hear that Rickon is probably on Skagos.

About this Rickon-Davos-Skagos business... I realized that the cog you are talking of here (and lord Damian noticed too) must be linked to Manderly, it is probably one of his ships, one that never returned as intended, and that is why he needs Davos expertise to get Rickon back. Is that not reasonable?

So he has already tried but without success, and we can assume that we will not get another "Davos disappears" and thought to be dead (again) episodes in the story. That would be very cheap. So he will be successful and we will have our lil' Rickon back :)

And I believe all Northern hell is going to break loose on the Boltons and the Freys -- in fact, I think it's a trifle unrealistic of them to allow themselves to be surrounded by hostile Stark bannermen, even though the Frey's are holding hostages. After all, if ALL the Freys are killed, there won't be anyone to tell the people at the Twins what happened, will there? The Northerners could claim that Stannis killed them all as they were bravely defending Winterfell in King Tommen's name, or some such nonsense.

Anyway, however it falls out, I'm eager to read it, and I'm also eager to see what happens in the Riverlands. AFFC seemed to be setting the stage for a massive reversal of fortune for the Lannisters and their allies. Events have shown that no Stark enemy is safe outside of a fortress in the Riverlands, but at the end of the book we have the convoy containing Edmure and Jeyne crossing the Riverlands toward Casterley Rock, and Jaime ordering the Freys to send their hostages to the King. Consider the dangers: Nymeria and her pack getting bolder, Lady Stoneheart taking over the BWB and hanging every Frey and Lannister the gang can get their hands on, Tom O'Sevens inside Riverrun, passing information to the bandits and acting as a one-man Trojan horse. Then Jaime, the only person who had a handle on the whole situation, goes missing. Wheee! Let the games begin!

:lol:

I think you covered all of it right here.

And I think Ghost Riders response said allmost all I wanted to say too.

Actually you might have hit on the reason why the Northerners join Stannis in the first place. I was wondering about that. Sure, it's only the Northerners who have no hostages at the Frey's like the Mormonts and the Clans. And then there's Karstark who is explicitely hoping that the Karstark hostage will be put to death.

But if there really is a conspiration, a believable assault by Stannis could assure that all the Freys could be killed without major repercussions to the remaining hostages. The conspiration could hide behind Stannis back, so to say, but act entirely for their own reason. Their interests converge for the moment, but I don't believe that the Northerners are true Stannis followers. That's why Stannis will be in for a surprise as well as the Boltons who I must wonder about. Surely they must be aware of their very weak position, surrounded by enemies, especially now that they've lost "Arya". Hmm, Roose should be at least... I wonder whether he still has some ace up his sleeve, but if not... the Boltons are done for.

About the northmen with Bolton (and possibly the ones in Stannis' camp too), there must be a reason the Freys are in the van right? Has this ever been heard of before? A northman would NEVER let a Frey go in the van! We know how they feel about going in first in battle...

As you say, it will be Stannis attacking the Boltons and the Umbers outside Winterfell does not have to take part, we don't know what they are up to really so it could be that they will claim to have joined Stannis under false pretense, I am sure it will take a lot for the Freys to execute the Greatjon because when he is gone the Umbers have no reason to comply anymore.

I think Roose is very aware of the situation but he does not know that the other northmen have a mission, I mean random scattered northmen should not pose a threat to him, and he probably thinks having Winterfell is the essence in claiming the loyalty of the north. He does not realize that there are still a few heirs to Robb and Winterfell about, and that Winterfell is nothing worth without a Stark.

Yeah, I expect a complete turn of the tables on the Lannisters very soon. They are very weak and vulnerable now. Their power completely depends on the Tyrells while their relationship to them is... strained. They managed to defeat the Northerners by treachery, but didn't foresee the consequences. They are hated by everybody now save only the direct beneficiaries (Freys and Boltons, though, the Freys' benefits are arguable. LF benefitted but is already set on betrayal, so the Lannister don't need to wait for support from that corner), everybody's waiting for an opportunity to oust them from power.

Aegon will occupy the Tyrell troops in the South, which the Northerners don't even know about atm. They do know that the North is a very difficult terrain for anybody trying to conquer it, so they don't need to fear any punitive expeditions. If the hostages get freed, all hold the Lannisters still have over the North, is gone.

Equally if the hostages gets killed - all hold over the north is gone.

Even Cercei knows the north can't be held. She is about to see that first hand... And I will be suprised if Aegon gets any farther north than the Neck.

LOL, judging from his countenance it can't be anything good! :) He was also pretty bend on burning some people already to ensure Rh'llors good will. Since he hasn't acted against Karstark so far I think we can safely assume that he doesn't see anything of relevance in the flames, staring as he might. Even Melisandre doesn't see anything and she really should be better at this then Stannis, otherwise she has chosen the wrong job! I agree that Karstark either has already burnt or will be burnt very soon. The banker surely will tell him about the betrayal and Stannis is not a very forgiving man.

Ah, thanks! Stannis should not be able to see anything in those flames, only snow... if he sees anything at all :)

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