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The northmen inside and outside Winterfell. Conspiracy? The GNC - The Grand Northern Conspiracy


Eyron

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More thoughts. Lord Manderly is a very patient man. He was able to conceal his hatred of the Freys for a long time while he waited to get his son back. The man has admirable self restraint. And yet, finally, he goes off and provokes the Freys into attacking him after the murder of the Walder Frey kid.
Wyman is indeed a calculating and careful player. He had a great show for the Freys in White Harbor. He continued his theater with the missing Freys that were pies. Now he is showing all of the present parties that the Freys have no honor for the guest rights.
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First off - conspiration sounds like a sweaty conspiracy. :P

Anyway I thought that Manderley deliberately infuriating the Freys in Winterfell was to sow strife amongst the Bolton garrison. If a serious fight broke out between the White Harbour knights and the Freys, would you believe that the other Northerners would stand idly by or support the Freys? His actions forced Roose Bolton to send out his men prematurely and in a snowstorm to attack Stannis.

I personally think that Manderley doesn't really care about his life and the whole going to Winterfell, to me, feels a bit like a suicide mission. Of course he'd prefer to come out of it alive but I think he's willing to pay with his life if he can rid the North of the Boltons and have his vengeance upon the Freys.

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The Frey's whole story revolves around Robb and his fellow northern lords that were murdered at the Red Wedding actually violating guest rights. Manderly getting the Frey's to attack him is a way a sowing doubt about their "honorable" tale. I also have believed for a while that Manderly was trying to force Roose to "jump the gun", and send forces out against Stannis. Wasn't the original plan to sit in the castle and let Stannis break himself against the wall? Manderly picking a fight with the Frey's forces Roose to not only send the instigator (Manderly) out into the cold, but the instigated (Freys), since their brash reaction has many of the Northern lords saying "You want us to be their friends?"

I like the idea of the warhorns outside the walls being a signal to Manderly. Look at this way....if you want to beat the Boltons and the Freys, the easiest way to do that is to seperate them. Manderly just accomplished that. Manderly and forces outside Winterfell wipe out the Freys, while loyal Northerner inside Winterfell take down Roose and Ramsay. Then they can all regroup inside Winterfell and defend against Stannis. That would also presumably take away Stannis' main forces of the clansmen.....

This will make the first 100 pages of WoW a awesome. Maybe the warhorn was the Thenns?

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I'm not 100% sure that the guy in Winterfell is the real Whoresbane Umber. Whoresbane got his moniker in Oldtown, where he studied to be a maester, so there's no chance he's illiterate. Yet the man calling himself Whoresbane signs documents by drawing the Umber sigil, the mark of an illiterate man. Roose might not have seen Whoresbane for a number of years (and Ramsay probably never met him before), so an Umber cousin might be impersonating him. Or, GRRM keeps telling us that personal objects can be used to make a glamour, and "Whoresbane" never takes off that greasy bear jerkin. Maybe the real Whoresbane has been dispatched to help rescue the Greatjon, and he and Crowfood are playing a deeper game than we realize. Just an extra wrinkle.

How did it happen that Wex met up w/ Lord Manderley anyway? If Rickon and Osha were heading towards Skagos, they would have crossed Umber lands correct? With Wex following them. Who then brought Wex to Manderly? Mors Umber maybe?

The Umber uncles were supposed to be allying with the Manderlys to build ships to defend the Bay of Seals. You have to cross the Bay of Seals to get to Skagos. Last Hearth is a lot closer to Skagos than White Harbor is. You're right that Rickon/Osha and Wex would have had to cross either Umber lands or the Gift to get to Skagos---the only other route takes you through Dreadfort (and possibly Hornwood) lands, so that wasn't possible. If Wex was initially grabbed by Umber men, it would make sense; but then, why wouldn't the Umbers have sent some of those ships they've been building with Manderly, which from ACOK we know were supposed to be protecting the Bay of Seals from raiders, over to Skagos to grab Rickon? Unless they tried, and were unsuccessful. Actually, it makes sense that they've already tried and failed, since looking to Davos, a southerner and former smuggler, doesn't sound like it would have been their first choice.

Although, if you look at a map of the North, Wex's journey seems beyond impossible if he was traveling the whole way on his own. He couldn't have physically followed Rickon and Osha to Skagos---he must have overheard their plans, because I can't see him following them that huge distance on foot, on his own, without Shaggy discovering his presence, to say nothing of getting on a boat.

For that matter, if Wex didn't get on a boat and follow them (and why on earth would he do that? Where would he find a boat, and how would he have made it to Skagos and back, when we saw how treacherous the waters around Skagos are back in AFFC with Sam?), then how could he have overheard their plans? Either he physically followed them to Skagos, which seems impossible to me, or he overheard their plans en route, which is difficult in the extreme because Shaggy would have smelled him if he got that close. Unless he hid up in a tree. Again.

The Wex story has a lot of holes in it, which makes me wonder what sort of game Manderly is playing here. Rickon being on Skagos makes sense, because Ghost senses Shaggy fighting a unicorn. But why not mention the Umbers' involvement if they were in fact involved? And if the story of how Wex discovered Rickon and Osha were headed to Skagos had other parts to it, why keep those parts from Davos? Unless, of course, Wex's little journey involved things that Manderly doesn't want to risk Stannis ever discovering. Though I'm not sure what would qualify there. Was Wex grabbed by Mance and the spearwives after they decided "Arya" wasn't coming to Long Lake, and brought to White Harbor as a gesture of goodwill, so that Mance could plot with Manderly to destroy the Boltons in exchange for getting aid for the wildlings? White Harbor doesn't have the same viscersal hatred of the wildlings that Last Hearth does, we know. Was Rickon actuallys sent TO Skagos, perhaps, by the Umbers, to keep him safe from the Boltons? We've never been told who Ned Stark's mother was, she might have been Skaagosi.

There's just something else going on here that I don't think GRRM has revealed yet.

I remember Asha saying earlier in ADWD that "The Northmen don't blow horns". Or where the horns blowing from the inside?

If I recall correctly, Asha says the Northmen don't use trumpets, not horns. We know they use horns, we've seen them on multiple occasions (Maege Mormont's warhorn at the Whispering Wood, for example).

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Whoresbane is a particularly interesting point as he will know full well that Manderly has a fleet and greater forces at his disposal than is currently supposed by Bolton.

Yet he hasn't revealed this. I think there is indeed something of a plot going on. If Snows were despised in the North then the conversation regarding Lawrance Snow would not have played out the way it did in ACOK.

I Think Roose is aware something is going on as he seemed to me to be very afraid in the last chapters in of ADWD. The Freys appear to be clueless and treat the Northerners as if they are simpletons. Tywin Lannister for all his brutality was never subtle, and never honourable and used brutality first. However I think the North followed the Starks in following an honourable course at first, but now they have gone for guile and savagery and they are very good at it so far.

Whoresbane could of course have revealed the secret fleet to Bolton off screen, but maybe not. Now that Mors is with Stannis it's really no point in pretending to be loyal to the Boltons anymore, or there is something going on with the Umbers that we don't know of. Maybe Whoresbane is just in Winterfell so Roose would not be suspicious, as a part of the long term plot!

I agree about the northmen, they are dealing with scum so they can feel free to descend to some less honourable methods!

poor Umber uncles who may and may not be working with other houses - their goal is to get Greatjon, vengeance is postponed

Tallhart, Cerwyn, Hornwood - potentially powerful alliance but with no central figure to lead either of them, most of their men are probably retreating from south or wandering in the north disorganized

clans - those men are scary, Stannis' southern boys compared to them look like Justin Bieber compared to Mel Gibson, disorganized

Ryswell and Dustin probably stay with Boltons for now unless some "trueborn lord" pisses them off

chance of them all working together is unlikely but still I don't think Lord Lamprey would have provoked Freys if he didn't have ace up his sleeve (after all he is outnumbered, vulnerable and can conveniently be eliminated at Bolton's whim???

I think that most of them will side with Manderly after realizing what the odds are, and when it comes down to living a crappy life through winter under Boltons rule with the fear of Ramsay coming into power, or fighting for honour (and die perhaps), most of them will fight. But that is only my opinion.

Ryswells and Dustin have good reason to hate Ramsays guts already, at least we know Lady Dustin feels like this but she hides it well.

I remember Asha saying earlier in ADWD that "The Northmen don't blow horns". Or where the horns blowing from the inside?

Hmmm I guess it could be Sigorn, they use horns [just saw I was beaten by Tearloch about the Thenns] or the Magnar of Skagos! Woo hooo!

I have never been a strong believer in the that the HM is Blackfish but now that I think about, The Blackfish still believed Robb to be his King and where does it make sense for him to go but the North. Was he in on it with Manderly?

Gods I have no idea where that man is :) But I think the hooded man has something to do with the plot.

First off - conspiration sounds like a sweaty conspiracy. :P

Anyway I thought that Manderley deliberately infuriating the Freys in Winterfell was to sow strife amongst the Bolton garrison. If a serious fight broke out between the White Harbour knights and the Freys, would you believe that the other Northerners would stand idly by or support the Freys? His actions forced Roose Bolton to send out his men prematurely and in a snowstorm to attack Stannis.

I personally think that Manderley doesn't really care about his life and the whole going to Winterfell, to me, feels a bit like a suicide mission. Of course he'd prefer to come out of it alive but I think he's willing to pay with his life if he can rid the North of the Boltons and have his vengeance upon the Freys.

I know conspiration was not the best word, I was hasty and made a poor translation, but you all get the point it seems :)

I think Manderly wanted to take the situation to a critical point so Bolton thought it best to get going and also to make a statement to all the northmen, like "this is what is going down, are you in or out?". They would have to assemble the men and open the gate and well that's all it takes, any men hiding in the snow outside are free to enter (by walking over the the Freys hopefully).

I am with you about Manderly, he is probably not afraid to die, he had his taste of all good things in life and a son safely in White Harbour. He can die happy and with honour.

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I am starting to wonder if Wex actually traveled WITH Osha, Rickon, and Shaggydog. I find it unbelievable that a mute Ironborn thrall of a boy could secretly track a wildling and a pretty wild direwolf for an extended period of time with no assistance. Shaggy would have smelled him from a mile away. Based on how the spearwives with Mance reacted to the accusation that they killed a child (Little Walder), I think it makes sense that once he was discovered, they (Osha mainly) took him with them, atleast as far as a nearby town, or where they eventually got on a boat for Skagos(?). He almost sounds like that little feral boy from the Road Warrior...

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I think that most of them will side with Manderly after realizing what the odds are, and when it comes down to living a crappy life through winter under Boltons rule with the fear of Ramsay coming into power, or fighting for honour (and die perhaps), most of them will fight. But that is only my opinion.

Ryswells and Dustin have good reason to hate Ramsays guts already, at least we know Lady Dustin feels like this but she hides it well.

yeah, probably but perhaps Manderly is just biding his time till Rickon is safe in WH. in that case Stannis is doomed

they will eventually turn against Lord Leech but i don't think it being soon - it would be too easy and when was anything easy with GRRM (except occasional Stark murder, and Cersei fucking anything that moves between Casterly Rock and KL)

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The Grand Northern Lord Conspiracy Theory! I'm on board.

My two cents. When Glover and Manderley are talking to Davos about Wex, Glover says:

"Until he learns more letters we will never know half the truth ... but he came to us knowing yes and no, ..."

How did it happen that Wex met up w/ Lord Manderley anyway? If Rickon and Osha were heading towards Skagos, they would have crossed Umber lands correct? With Wex following them. Who then brought Wex to Manderly? Mors Umber maybe?

If so, more evidence of communication between Manderly and other Northern houses. And evidence that other Northern houses know it was the Bolton's who burned Winterfell.

Very interesting catches about the Ryswell scout and the status of various Snows in the North. Time for a re-read!

Great thinking about Wex!

Osha and Rickon would pass through Umberland when going north to Skagos, so how did Wex end up in White Harbour? He could have gotten a ride from Umbers going to Manderly, assembling a united army mayhaps. This smells of conspiracy...

I love a conspiracy. I can see the North rise again, to take back their honor from the likes of the Boltons and Theon Turncoat. Manderly is the Man. Having him kicked back eating Frey pies and talking smack, that was priceless. I see him sitting there thinking " I love it when a plan comes together " too bad they don't have cigars in the westeros.

:lmao:

I think they have Rickon and ShaggyDog and Osha too. Manderly will be Hand or Regent to King Rickon and Jon will stay at the Wall. I think part of the reason for his "death" was to release him from his vows but also to keep him from going to Winterfell. Jon has to be there when the Others come.

I think the Northern Lords know that Robb's will was made when he thought his trueborn brothers and his sister Arya to be dead. It was a political move to keep the Lannisters from using Sansa's claim to take Winterfell. They are rallied around Rickon. I don't think they plan on bending the knee to Stannis anytime soon either. He best get back to the Wall too.

With Rickon installed as King of the North or atleast Lord of Winterfell, word will reach LF in the Vale but will he tell Sansa? Hell No. She'll find out from Randa or the Yonces and then turn on LF(hopefully killing him as revenge for the deaths he's caused) and get out of the Vale already. This is the most plausible way for her to get back to Winterfell. The Lords of the North will welcome her and immediately start competing for her hand with the Lords of the Vale. She'll use her marriage to Tyrion to hold them off through out the long winter and Rickon has a chance to grow up until it's time for the final battle with the Others and he can bring his army north to the Wall. The North remembers so when the time comes and the Wall needs backup the brothers will be reunited.

Aaah, definitely this! We can always hope :)

I have a nice conspiracy theory for the Vale too...

There are a lot of powerful allies to the north sitting in the Vale, the Royces of course but there are more. And Harry the Heir was knighted by Bronze Yohn, and his Lady protector is a Stark loyalist. I like Harry already, bastards or no, he sounds like a nice guy. So if Sansa likes him, I say go for it.

I think the Rickon for Winterfell conspiracy is the most likely too, it makes more sense considering that no one has approached Jon to make sure he is on board, or that he does not go do something stupid like getting killed whilst ranging.

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Here is another possibility:

Maybe Manderly already has Rickon? I ventured that Wex did not follow Rickon et al, but traveled with them earlier. Maybe the Umbers followed them to Skagos, and brought them to White Harbor already. Then why on earth would Manderly send Davos to Skagos to find them? To delay Stannis........think about it....if Manderly is plotting a northern rebellion / revenge fest on Boltons and Freys, then why would they want Stannis, a southron, getting in the middle of it. Davos, if sent away, would go to Stannis, and Stannis would view the rest of the north as his enemy. By delaying Davos, and sending him on a long mission with no chance of success, then Manderly and the other northern lords have time to let their plot play out.....The North remembers....but I don't think the North would rely on the help of southron "king", who openly was against the King in the North, to settle their problems.....

By the time Davos returns, the North will be united under a new King in the North....Rickon Stark (or Jon Stark, depending on how Robb's will plays out).

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I'm not 100% sure that the guy in Winterfell is the real Whoresbane Umber. Whoresbane got his moniker in Oldtown, where he studied to be a maester, so there's no chance he's illiterate. Yet the man calling himself Whoresbane signs documents by drawing the Umber sigil, the mark of an illiterate man. Roose might not have seen Whoresbane for a number of years (and Ramsay probably never met him before), so an Umber cousin might be impersonating him. Or, GRRM keeps telling us that personal objects can be used to make a glamour, and "Whoresbane" never takes off that greasy bear jerkin. Maybe the real Whoresbane has been dispatched to help rescue the Greatjon, and he and Crowfood are playing a deeper game than we realize. Just an extra wrinkle.

Wow this did not not even cross my mind!

And we got to see that "crude drawing of a giant" so many times. I think something is going on with the Umbers for sure now. Even the Umbers have some low cunning :)

Although, if you look at a map of the North, Wex's journey seems beyond impossible if he was traveling the whole way on his own. He couldn't have physically followed Rickon and Osha to Skagos---he must have overheard their plans, because I can't see him following them that huge distance on foot, on his own, without Shaggy discovering his presence, to say nothing of getting on a boat.

Either he physically followed them to Skagos, which seems impossible to me, or he overheard their plans en route, which is difficult in the extreme because Shaggy would have smelled him if he got that close. Unless he hid up in a tree. Again.

The Wex story has a lot of holes in it, which makes me wonder what sort of game Manderly is playing here. Rickon being on Skagos makes sense, because Ghost senses Shaggy fighting a unicorn. But why not mention the Umbers' involvement if they were in fact involved? And if the story of how Wex discovered Rickon and Osha were headed to Skagos had other parts to it, why keep those parts from Davos? Unless, of course, Wex's little journey involved things that Manderly doesn't want to risk Stannis ever discovering. Though I'm not sure what would qualify there. Was Wex grabbed by Mance and the spearwives after they decided "Arya" wasn't coming to Long Lake, and brought to White Harbor as a gesture of goodwill, so that Mance could plot with Manderly to destroy the Boltons in exchange for getting aid for the wildlings? White Harbor doesn't have the same viscersal hatred of the wildlings that Last Hearth does, we know. Was Rickon actuallys sent TO Skagos, perhaps, by the Umbers, to keep him safe from the Boltons? We've never been told who Ned Stark's mother was, she might have been Skaagosi.

There's just something else going on here that I don't think GRRM has revealed yet.

If we had learned that the Umbers were in on the plot from the Davos chapter it would be too revealing I think. That Mors is with Stannis and Whoresbane (if it is him) is with Roose Bolton would seem like a part of the plot, and maybe too many readers would put too much together.

There is definitely something strange about the Wex story. Like you say I don't think hiding in a tree would help against Shaggydog, but I don't remember how he reacted when Wex was in the godswood, did he sense Wex then?

Wex kept throwing a knife, he was excellent at it in fact... And he kept smirking and seemed pretty happy about himself somehow. He reminded me of a younger Theon actually.

A Skagosi Lady Stark sounds great, maybe that was what Maester Luwin whispered to Osha.

If I recall correctly, Asha says the Northmen don't use trumpets, not horns. We know they use horns, we've seen them on multiple occasions (Maege Mormont's warhorn at the Whispering Wood, for example).

That is good, the horn could mean northmen then. Or Thenns or Skaggs.

Another thing I remember from that Theon chapter is that he did not recognize the guards at the gate when he and Jeyne were escaping. He also heard the trumpets of the Freys from the castle yard. A few moments later he heard the horn from the north. Also the drawbridge was down, he seemed surprised about that. So maybe the guards were not Bolton men and they were preparing for something.

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I'm not 100% sure that the guy in Winterfell is the real Whoresbane Umber. Whoresbane got his moniker in Oldtown, where he studied to be a maester, so there's no chance he's illiterate. Yet the man calling himself Whoresbane signs documents by drawing the Umber sigil, the mark of an illiterate man. Roose might not have seen Whoresbane for a number of years (and Ramsay probably never met him before), so an Umber cousin might be impersonating him. Or, GRRM keeps telling us that personal objects can be used to make a glamour, and "Whoresbane" never takes off that greasy bear jerkin. Maybe the real Whoresbane has been dispatched to help rescue the Greatjon, and he and Crowfood are playing a deeper game than we realize. Just an extra wrinkle.

Hmm, so is the man at the Dreadfort in the first Reek chapter the real deal? And then switched later? Or already switched at that point?

Are there any discrepancies between his description and any later descriptions of Whoresbane Umber? Very interesting thought. I definitely need to go back and read all that again (I never paid much attention to the Umbers before).

Great thoughts about Wex too!

And Lady Stark a Skagoosi!?! Could it be that this the reason we've never heard about her?

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Here is another possibility:

Maybe Manderly already has Rickon? I ventured that Wex did not follow Rickon et al, but traveled with them earlier. Maybe the Umbers followed them to Skagos, and brought them to White Harbor already. Then why on earth would Manderly send Davos to Skagos to find them? To delay Stannis........think about it....if Manderly is plotting a northern rebellion / revenge fest on Boltons and Freys, then why would they want Stannis, a southron, getting in the middle of it. Davos, if sent away, would go to Stannis, and Stannis would view the rest of the north as his enemy. By delaying Davos, and sending him on a long mission with no chance of success, then Manderly and the other northern lords have time to let their plot play out.....The North remembers....but I don't think the North would rely on the help of southron "king", who openly was against the King in the North, to settle their problems.....

By the time Davos returns, the North will be united under a new King in the North....Rickon Stark (or Jon Stark, depending on how Robb's will plays out).

Hmmm... why should Manderley make the effort to hide Davos and then send him on a top secret mission to Skagos if he had Rickon already? If he just wanted Davos out of the way he could just have done what he told everybody anyway – kill Davos and be done with it.

Tze, I am very very impressed with all the details you dug up! Though I don't think that the whole north is in on the conspiracy together at this point, it is very possible that more or less everybody is secretely supporting the Starks already – some houses have joined forces, some houses are still doing their own thing. I would like to see their reaction when they find out about the other loyalists: "Oh, you too? Wanna join our secret Stark fanclub?“

I especially like the part about the the Glovers who do not trust "Snows“. Incidentally, the Blackfish made a similar comment to Jaime once and I think he knows about Robb's will, right?

And the Whoresbane who studied in Oldtown, yet surprisingly cannot even write his own name? Nice catch!

Talking about Ramsay's letters: I have noticed that Asha's letter was signed by Lady Dustin and Jon's letter by "Lord Dustin“. At first I thought this was just a typo. But could this be another hint that Lady Dustin is playing her own little game?

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And Lady Stark a Skagoosi!?! Could it be that this the reason we've never heard about her?

Her identity is kept hidden for some reason so why not, if we knew this before we would not be surprised if Rickon shows up with a nice army of Skaggs outside Winterfell. I am now just waiting for the Skagosi to show up, with unigoats :)

She would possibly be a cannibal... I can imagine she lay off when she came to Winterfell though.

And Bran enjoyed his "pig" on a stick in the Haunted Forest...

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I have never been a strong believer in the that the HM is Blackfish but now that I think about, The Blackfish still believed Robb to be his King and where does it make sense for him to go but the North. Was he in on it with Manderly?

When i read this part I actually had a gut feeling that this might be Blackfish, Loves Blackfish

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Hmm, I've just remembered in ACOK, Bran leaves Osha in the Godswood with Luwin (where we assume she gives him the gift of mercy). What if while she was there, she met and talked to Wex, or Wex overheard a conversation with her and Luwin?

I think there was some kind of conversation at least between Osha and Luwin, something only for "grown ups". I have no proof at all but I think Maester Luwin knew Wex was up there in that tree, they had both been there for some time. I guess Luwin should have known who Rickards wife was so maybe that was what he told Osha, so they could get help from that side of the family.

There would be no reason for Wex to lie to Manderly or Davos about how he found out where Rickon was going, if he followed them or if he overheard makes little difference, so I think there is something else going on with the Wex story. Maybe she talked to him and made some plan that we have not figured out.

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