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From the end of the last thread, discussing the delay between Brandon and Rickard's deaths and the sack of King's Landing:

Actually I think "about" means "a little more than" a year. maybe 15 months?

I'm on the opposite end. "About" to me means a little less. It implies that you're rounding up. I'd put it at 10-12 months.

It was "close to" a year, which I take to mean a little less than a year.

Go.

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Moving away slightly from the timeline from the War, the mention of Benjen and Rickards death reminds me of something that has been bothering me for the last couple of days.

I'd always assumed that the 3 KG Ned fights were with Rhaegar from the start. After Lyanna was kidnapped Aerys sends searchers looking for Rhaegar across half the realm, so I thought that the KG had to already be at the ToJ else the Kings orders (to return Rhaegar to KL) would trump the Crown Prince's . However I was recently reminded of Jaime's memory in Feast that Ser Gerold spoke to him after Lord Rickard was burned.

So when did the KG arrive at the ToJ? Were Rhaegar and Lyanna genuinely alone (just the two of them) for the first few months? My interpretation of the KG honour is that Aerys orders always outrank Rhaegars so why did they go to the ToJ at some point during the War but before the battle of the Trident?

Or have we been looking at things wrong? We know that Lyanna was at the ToJ at the end of the war but is that the first place Rhaegar took her to. If it was famously a place that Rhaegar loved then wouldn't it be Aery's searchers would look? Perhaps they hid out somewhere else first (like Starfall)?

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You see a serpentine/dragon like creature through Summer's eyes in aCoK.

"The smoke and ash clouded his eyes, and in the sky he saw a great winged snake whose roar was a river of flame. He bared his teeth, but then the snake was gone. Behind the cliffs tall fires were eating up the stars."

Can someone verify this? I am at work but based on what I am reading from the wiki.

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I'd always assumed that the 3 KG Ned fights were with Rhaegar from the start. After Lyanna was kidnapped Aerys sends searchers looking for Rhaegar across half the realm, so I thought that the KG had to already be at the ToJ else the Kings orders (to return Rhaegar to KL) would trump the Crown Prince's . However I was recently reminded of Jaime's memory in Feast that Ser Gerold spoke to him after Lord Rickard was burned.

So when did the KG arrive at the ToJ? Were Rhaegar and Lyanna genuinely alone (just the two of them) for the first few months? My interpretation of the KG honour is that Aerys orders always outrank Rhaegars so why did they go to the ToJ at some point during the War but before the battle of the Trident?

Pretty likely its a mixture. Ser Arthur Dayne was probably with Rhaegar the whole time (someone from the KG would be), and Dayne is described as Rhaegars closest friend and contemporary). Ser Gerold Hightower was Lord Commander, so probably at KL initially.

At the death of Rickard and Brandon, no one knew where Rhaegar was - my guess is Hightower did, but wasn't saying, his ultimately loyalty having transfered to Rhaegar after witnessing the extent of Aerys' madness, but that is speculative, and I assume he still kept his vows etc.

After the Battle of the Bells, which Connington lost, Selmy and Darry (2KG) were dispatched to gather up the scattered royalist forces while Rhaegar returned from the south to take command - I guess Hightower went to fetch Rhaegar. Jaime stayed close to Aerys, Whent may have already been with Rhaegar or gone south then with Hightower. Martell may have gone south with Hightower (I think so) or stayed with Aerys as well.

When Hightower (and I think Martell, and Whent if he wasn't already with Rhaegar) reach Rhaegar, Rhaegar orders Hightower, Whent and Dayne to stay and guard (protect) Lyanna* (who is pregnant with his 3rd head of the Dragon, and probably married) while he rides back to KL to take command and sort out the rebellion (I think Martell went south and came back with Rhaegar, otherwise Rhaegar would be travelling without KG, and I don't think that would have been acceptable).

Then Rhaegar takes Martell and the gathered forces, joins Selmy and Darry and marches on Robert.

So Rhaegar and 3KG fight at the Trident, Jaime stays close to Aerys the whole time and 3KG are left at ToJ.

But other than the final dispositions, its pretty much all speculative and we can't really do more than speculate.

Or have we been looking at things wrong? We know that Lyanna was at the ToJ at the end of the war but is that the first place Rhaegar took her to. If it was famously a place that Rhaegar loved then wouldn't it be Aery's searchers would look? Perhaps they hid out somewhere else first (like Starfall)?

Its possible. We have no way at all of knowing.

But if the location of ToJ isn't known, then people can't look for Rhaegar there even if they guess that is where he is.

And what he is known for is wandering the ruins of Summerhall. I don't think ToJ was 'famously a place that he loved' at all. I think it was basically unknown.

But again, this is pretty much all speculative, with virtually no evidence to go on.

*PS By the time Ned arrives at ToJ Lyanna is really incidental to the 3KG. They have a king there to protect - there is no other reasonable explanation for why they wouldn't have sent at least one of their number to Viserys, who had no KG at all. The King having a KG member to protect him is surely the highest priority of ther order.

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@ Angalin: stupid question, maybe, but I've always been curious: why do some threads become locked?

@ keog:

Warning: Do not read if you have not read ASOS onward, and do not want spoilers!

Rhaegar met Lyanna at the Tourney of Harrenhal, approximately two years before the Sack of Kings Landing; that's where he first met Lyanna; it's where he pronounced her the "Queen of Love and Beauty" when he won the tournament, essentially saying she was the most beautiful girl there, even more beautiful than his own wife, who was also there;

it's also where Lyanna may have been the Knight of the Laughing Tree, as told to Bran by Meera and Jojen Reed in ASOS; the KOTLT was a mystery knight who defeated several knight, annoying king Aerys, who sent Rhaegar to discover the knight's identity and arrest them; Rhaegar "supposedly" never found the KOTLT, but if the knight was indeed Lyanna, and he did find her, and was impressed with her courage and skill, that may have been the moment he fell in love with her, and why he later proclaimed her the Queen of Love and Beauty;

as I stated on the R+L=J v.16 thread, Jaime was knighted at 15 at the tourney of Harrenhal, and was 17 at the Sack of Kings Landing, so there wa likely approx. 2 years between those two events....;

the war itself lasted about 10 - 12 months; Rhaegar likely abducted Lyanna a few months after Harrenhal;

remember, Brandon went to King's Landing to confront Aerys after hearing this, was arrested, then Ned's father Rickard went there, then both were killed, and then Aerys told Jon Arryn to send him Ned's (and Robert's) head from the Vale, meaning that Rhaegar did not abduct Lyanna directly after or from the Harrenhal tourney, as Ned wouldn't have had time to make it back to the Vale, and wouldn't have gone if he thought his sister hadn't made it somewhere safe;

so after Harrenhal, Rhaegar had enough time to abduct (or seduce/elope with) Lyanna, Brandon had enough time to go to KL (not a short journey, even from Riverrun, if that's where he was and not Winterfell), Rickard had enough time to go to KL from Winterfell (a very long journey), and it took Ned and Robert several months to travel from the Vale where they were fostered with Jon Arryn to their homes to gather their forces (the North and Storm's End, respectively) - I say that between the Harrenhal tourney and the start of the war, at least a year passed;

so again, approx. 2 full years between Harrenhal tourney and Sack of KL....

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The way I understand it, it was Brandon and Rickard's executions that "officially" kicked off the war, and from that time to the Sack was "about a year."

The start of the rebellion is generally thought to be when Jon Arryn raises his banners in response to Aerys's demand for Ned and Robert's heads - an act that takes place after Brandon and Rickard’s deaths. This is the first rebellious act against the throne. For me there are two vitally important quotes to understand how long the rebellion takes. First, there is this discussion between Robert and Ned about the aftermath of the Battle of the Trident and the sack of King’s Landing from A Game of Thrones:

”You took a wound from Rhaegar,” Ned reminded him. “So when the Targaryen host broke and ran, you gave the pursuit into my hands. The remnants of Rhaegar’s army fled back to King’s Landing. We followed. Aerys was in the Red Keep with several thousand loyalists. I expected to find the gates closed to us.”

Robert gave an impatient shake of his head. “Instead you found that our men had already take the city. What of it?”

“Not our men,” Ned said patiently. “Lannister men. The lion of Lannister flew over the ramparts, not the crowned stag. and they had take the city by treachery.”

The war had raged for close to a year. Lords great and small had flocked to Robert’s banners; others had remained loyal to Targaryen. (AGoT 96)

bold emphasis added

And then there is this quote by Ned about Stannis and the siege of Storm’s End:

Why did Stannis leave” Had he played some part in Jon Arryn’s murder? Or was he afraid? Ned found it hard to imagine what could frighten Stannis Baratheon, who had once held Storm’s End through a year of siege. (AGoT 232-233)

These two quotes tell us that the rebellion takes about a year in time from start to finish with beginning being when Jon Arryn calls his banners, and the finish being the lifting of the siege at Storm’s End. The emphasis has to be on the word “about.” Why? Can’t we assume the first quote means that it was not yet a year into the rebellion with King’s Landing falls, and the second quote means that a year has passed by the time Ned gets to Storm’s End to lift the siege? Well, yes, but it seems more likely that what we are dealing with is more time than that. Why? Because it is highly unlikely that the siege of Storm’s End starts at or very close to the time of Jon Arryn calling his banners. When he does so, Lord Merryweather calls on other Lords to deal with the rebellion and as a consequence there are battles in the Vale and at some time after the call goes out a siege is set in around Storm’s End. We have to ask ourselves just how long it takes between these two events. We know this to have happened shortly after Lord Arryn’s declaration - Robert leads forces over the wall at Gulltown against Vale lords who stay loyal to the crown, and then he leaves and goes to Storm’s End to call his own banners and fight a series of battles against loyalists among is own bannermen (Summerhall) and armies of the Reach (Ashford.) It seems highly unlikely that the siege starts until all these things happen and Robert is defeated at Ashford. Just how long does it take for all this to happen. My guess is it is longer than it takes for Ned to march his forces from King’s Landing to Storm’s End. Probably longer by months. In other words, I side with those who estimate a rebellion of longer than a year and more likely in the neighborhood of 13 to 14 months.

Here’s a quick relative timeline of the rebellion, in my estimation.

Timeline:

  • - Tourney at Harrenhal
  • - Rickard Stark announces Lyanna Stark’s betrothal to Robert Baratheon in Winterfell (sometime after Mya Stone is born}
  • - Aegon’s birth
  • - Lyanna Stark is “kidnapped” by Rhaegar Targaryen
  • - Brandon Stark meets Catelyn and tells her he must take care of something before their wedding
  • - Brandon rides to King’s Landing and calls out for Rhaegar to “come out and die.” All of Brandon’s party are seized and imprisoned by King Aerys Targaryen’s order.
  • - King Aerys summons the fathers of Brandon and his companions to King’s Landing
  • - Aerys kills Rickard Stark and Brandon
  • - Aerys sends a message to Jon Arryn demanding the heads of Eddard Stark and Robert Baratheon, to which Lord Arryn responds by calling his banners (This is the start of the rebellion and must date from somewhere in 282, about a year before the sack of King’s Landing - “The war had raged for close to a year” (AGoT 96)
  • - Robert and Ned travel to their respective realms to call their banners against Aerys. Before Robert leaves the Vale, he is the first man over the walls in Gulltown as Lord Arryn’s forces take that city when it stays loyal to Aerys. After this happens Ned is shipwrecked on Little Sister and brought before the Lord of Sweetsister (ADwD 132-3)
  • - Robert fights a series of battles against loyalist forces at Summerhall first, then at Ashford.
  • - Aerys removes Lord Merryweather as his Hand and after being unable to find his son, Rhaegar, he names Rhaegar’s friend Jon Connington as Hand of the King.
  • - Siege of Storm’s End begins.
  • - The Battle of the Bells - Jon Connington removed as King’s Hand
  • - Ned marries Catelyn Tully and Jon Arryn marries her sister Lysa. Jon Snow is conceived around this time. Robb is conceived during Ned and Catelyn's "honeymoon" - such as it is.
  • - Rhaegar returns north, after he is either found or he comes out of hiding, to take up command of the King’s forces
  • - Aerys kills the Hand, Lord Chelsted, when Chelsted discovers the pyromancer plot and tries to stop it.
  • - The same night of Lord Chelsted’s death Aerys rapes Queen Rhaella (Daenerys conceived)
  • - Rhaegar leaves for the Trident; telling Jaime Lannister there will be changes when he returns
  • - Rhaegar is killed by Robert at the Battle of the Trident
  • - When news of the Battle of the Trident reaches King’s Landing Rhaella and Viserys leave for Dragonstone
  • - Sack of King’s Landing. Death of Aerys, Elia, Rhaenys, and the baby Aegon by the hands of Tywin Lannister’s bannermen and his son. Ned arrives with the Rebel vanguard and holds the Iron Throne for Robert.
  • - A wounded Robert arrives in King’s Landing
  • - Robert’s coronation. Varys, Pycelle, and Ser Jaime Lannister are pardoned, over Ned’s objections - at least in the case of Jaime.
  • - Tywin Lannister displays the bodies of Elia and her children before the Iron Throne leading to a argument between Robert and Ned over their deaths and Tywin’s conduct. The same day Ned leaves to go to Storm’s End
  • - Ned lifts the siege at Storm’s End - about a year since its beginning
  • - Ned travels to the Tower of Joy. Lyanna dies and only Ned and Howland Reed survive a battle between Ned and six companions (Martyn Cassel, Theo Wull, Ethan Glover, Ser Mark Ryswell, Howland Reed, Lord Dustin) against the three remaining free loyalists of the Kingsguard - Lord Commander Gerold Hightower, Ser Arthur Dayne, and Ser Oswell Whent (AGoT 354-5). Jon Snow is born about this time or shortly before it.
  • - Ned pulls down the Tower of Joy and builds “eight cairns” to serve as graves for the dead from his battle with the Kingsguard. (AGoT 356)
  • - Ned goes to Starfall and returns the sword Dawn to the Daynes
  • - Ned goes to King’s Landing and Robert and Ned make peace
  • - Baby Jon Snow is in Winterfell with his wetnurse when Catelyn arrives
  • - Daenerys is born amidst a tremendous storm which destroys the Targaryen fleet. Rhaella dies from complications from Daenerys’s birth.
  • - Before the newly built rebel fleet, commanded by Stannis Baratheon, can arrive at Dragonstone, Ser Willem Darry steals into the young Targaryen’s chambers and secrets them out of Dragonstone before a mutinous force of soldiers can turn them over to the rebels.

This all takes place over the years 281 to 284. The tourney at Harrenhal is likely in year 281, the rebellion likely starts in late 282, the sack of King's Landing takes place in 283, and Daenerys birth is in 284.

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In other words, I side with those who estimate a rebellion of longer than a year and more likely in the neighborhood of 13 to 14 months.

I don't really see how a 13-14 month timeline is possible. If the rebellion lasted "close to" a year from the raising of Jon Arryn's banners to the Sack of King's Landing, then the timeline you propose requires a gap of 3-4 months, if not longer, between the Sack and the lifting of the Siege of Storm's End. That gap doesn't seem plausible to me. Ned would have left almost immediately after his falling out with Robert, IIRC, and that would have occurred right after Tywin presented the bodies, something which Tywin would have almost immediately done in order to prove his loyalty. Furthermore, if Ned did lift the siege 3-4 months after the Sack, and then reached the Tower of Joy, say, a month after that, then that means he would have found Lyanna 3-5 months after Jon was born. I'm not a medical expert, but it seems implausible to me that Lyanna would have taken 3-5 months to die from childbirth (though I would be perfectly happy to concede if someone more knowledgeable than me on this subject offered a correction). So in short, I'm skeptical that it would have taken Ned longer than, say, a month or so to lift the siege.

As for Ned's quote about how long the siege lasted, I think that he is either:

1) dating the beginning of the war at the raising of his and Robert's banners, thus making the beginning of the siege coincide roughly with the beginning of the war

or

2) he is rounding up.

I personally prefer the latter scenario, but either one of the above scenarios sounds more plausible to me than a 13-14 month timeline, unless there's something I'm missing (which is always possible).

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Moving away slightly from the timeline from the War, the mention of Benjen and Rickards death reminds me of something that has been bothering me for the last couple of days.

I'd always assumed that the 3 KG Ned fights were with Rhaegar from the start. After Lyanna was kidnapped Aerys sends searchers looking for Rhaegar across half the realm, so I thought that the KG had to already be at the ToJ else the Kings orders (to return Rhaegar to KL) would trump the Crown Prince's . However I was recently reminded of Jaime's memory in Feast that Ser Gerold spoke to him after Lord Rickard was burned.

So when did the KG arrive at the ToJ? Were Rhaegar and Lyanna genuinely alone (just the two of them) for the first few months? My interpretation of the KG honour is that Aerys orders always outrank Rhaegars so why did they go to the ToJ at some point during the War but before the battle of the Trident?

Or have we been looking at things wrong? We know that Lyanna was at the ToJ at the end of the war but is that the first place Rhaegar took her to. If it was famously a place that Rhaegar loved then wouldn't it be Aery's searchers would look? Perhaps they hid out somewhere else first (like Starfall)?

I'm really not sure about the Tower timeline within the actual war, but from what people in the novels recall, I get the impression that Rhaegar was already the de facto ruler and had the Kingsguard's loyalty, but was publicly unable to prevent or override Aerys' actions at his most wacky (i.e. burning Rickard and Brandon). That action may have tipped the other Kingsguard members into discreetly backing Rhaegar should he ever try to stage a coup. It's possible, maybe even likely, that Rhaegar would have intervened to stop their deaths at King's Landing had he been there.

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This all takes place over the years 281 to 284. The tourney at Harrenhal is likely in year 281, the rebellion likely starts in late 282, the sack of King's Landing takes place in 283, and Daenerys birth is in 284.

One quick question: I cannot remember off-hand, and don't ave any of the books in front of me right now, but did Rhaegar leave the ToJ and go directly to the Trident to face Robert, or did he go to KL first? And if he went to KL first, is that when he and Elia became pregnant with Dany? And also when Rhaegar had that conversation with Jaime that he remembers from his POV where Rhaegar said something like, "....When this is all over, things will be different......"?

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One quick question: I cannot remember off-hand, and don't ave any of the books in front of me right now, but did Rhaegar leave the ToJ and go directly to the Trident to face Robert, or did he go to KL first? And if he went to KL first, is that when he and Elia became pregnant with Dany? And also when Rhaegar had that conversation with Jaime that he remembers from his POV where Rhaegar said something like, "....When this is all over, things will be different......"?

1) Rhaegar went to King's Landing first, with the Battle of the Trident likely following a few months later.

2) Dany is Aerys and Rhaella's daughter, not Rhaegar's. She was conceived not long before the Sack, if memory serves.

3) The conversation between Jaime and Rhaegar occurred just before Rhaegar rode out for the Trident.

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1) Rhaegar went to King's Landing first, with the Battle of the Trident likely following a few months later.

2) Dany is Aerys and Rhaella's daughter, not Rhaegar's. She was conceived not long before the Sack, if memory serves.

3) The conversation between Jaime and Rhaegar occurred just before Rhaegar rode out for the Trident.

Yes. Of course. I did know that. :dunce: Temporary lapse in memory.... Thanks.

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Martin said that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany. So Jon must have been born around the KL Sack, or a bit earlier. So, when Ned and the others arrived at the Tower he should been around 3 or more months, what means that Lyanna had a very difficult childbirth if she was so weak that she died.

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I don't really see how a 13-14 month timeline is possible. If the rebellion lasted "close to" a year from the raising of Jon Arryn's banners to the Sack of King's Landing, then the timeline you propose requires a gap of 3-4 months, if not longer, between the Sack and the lifting of the Siege of Storm's End.

I'm really not sure about the Tower timeline within the actual war, but from what people in the novels recall, I get the impression that Rhaegar was already the de facto ruler and had the Kingsguard's loyalty, but was publicly unable to prevent or override Aerys' actions at his most wacky (i.e. burning Rickard and Brandon). That action may have tipped the other Kingsguard members into discreetly backing Rhaegar should he ever try to stage a coup. It's possible, maybe even likely, that Rhaegar would have intervened to stop their deaths at King's Landing had he been there.

Sorry, for any confusion, but I state explicitly in the text above that the end of the war in my timeline is with the lifting of the siege at Storm's End, not with the sack of King's Landing or the confrontation of Ned and company with the Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy. Meaning the "13-14 month" estimation for the duration of the rebellion is from Jon Arryn's calling his banners to the lifting of the siege at Storm's End. It is likely, in my view that Ned's arrival at Storm's End takes place in the neighborhood of one month to six weeks after the sack (based on travel time) and the Tower of Joy scene some six weeks to two months after the sack (or a week or two after the siege is lifted - again based on travel times.) These are obviously approximations and Martin has shown us that his travel times don't necessarily match up with what would be possible in the real world.

Martin said that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany. So Jon must have been born around the KL Sack, or a bit earlier. So, when Ned and the others arrived at the Tower he should been around 3 or more months, what means that Lyanna had a very difficult childbirth if she was so weak that she died.

No, you have it backwards. If Jon is nine months older than Daenerys, then he is born about the time of the sack and would be about month to six weeks old when Ned arrives. If Jon is eight months older than Daenerys, then he is born about the time of Ned's arrival at the Tower or shortly (a week or two) before. I think the latter makes more sense if Jon is born there. It seems likely that Lyanna dies of complications of childbirth and the complication that best fits her description when Ned sees her is puerperal fever. It takes about a day to ten days for this fever to show itself and kill a new mother. Not that Martin couldn't come up with his own world's infection to explain her death - in which case we have little to nothing to establish parameters for Lyanna's death from actually giving birth.

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@ Angalin: stupid question, maybe, but I've always been curious: why do some threads become locked?

With a few exceptions, threads are locked after 400 posts because a whole bunch of large threads strain the database's ability to manage them. Over in Forum Games, there's an understanding that some threads will run longer, such as TTTNE threads which go to 1000 posts before being locked.

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Puerperal Fever is no joke even today.

It comes down to simple rules of hygene during birth.

Someone didn't wash their hands when helping Lyanna deliver, or their instruments were not clean.

Have a friend who is a Professor of Nursing, and she says that the hardest concept to teach new students by far is controlling the spread of germs.

Hand washing,cleaning instruments, proper disposal of items used during examinations, (i.e.,cotton swabs, the "kleenex" gowns you wear on the cold table), and of course needle disposal. All this needs to be controlled under the guise of hazmat.

The "devil" is absolutely in the details and smallest things.

And this, one of my friends had a customer whose twenty-five year old daughter who worked in the Pharmaceutical industry, died in childbirth two weeks ago, so childbirth is still risky.

Famous Victims of Puerperal Fever:

Elizabeth of York- Henry the VIII mother.

Jane Seymour

Kathryn Parr

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Thanks SFDanny for your hard work and elaboration on the timeline.

I wonder if it might be possible to approximate WHERE characters were located by this timeline. Based off typical methods of transportation (horseback), and time of arrival. I know there are several references to how long it takes to get from A to B, so we can get perspective of just how big Westeros is. I would be interested to know where Rickard, Brandon, Benjen, and most importantly Lyanna are at given times.

If Lyanna and Rhaegar were infatuated with one another, and decided to elope, how was it planned? I don't see a budding romance via Raven. I also don't see Rhaegar knocking on Winterfell's door, asking if Lyanna can come out and play (timeline wouldn't seem to support a journey of that distance either). Or Riverrun? I think the big question is, how did they get together in the first place. Even if you don't subscribe to a consensual relationship, in order for there to be a kidnap, they stil need to be in proximity to each other.

Was Lyanna on her way to KL to become a lady (like Ned's daughters)? Would Rickard risk having his daughter near the Mad King? Could she be on her way to the Stormlands for preparations for her wedding? Isn't Summerhall in the Stormlands? Near Dorne? Like the TOJ?

What do you guys think?

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Thanks SFDanny for your hard work and elaboration on the timeline.

I wonder if it might be possible to approximate WHERE characters were located by this timeline. Based off typical methods of transportation (horseback), and time of arrival. I know there are several references to how long it takes to get from A to B, so we can get perspective of just how big Westeros is. I would be interested to know where Rickard, Brandon, Benjen, and most importantly Lyanna are at given times.

If Lyanna and Rhaegar were infatuated with one another, and decided to elope, how was it planned? I don't see a budding romance via Raven. I also don't see Rhaegar knocking on Winterfell's door, asking if Lyanna can come out and play (timeline wouldn't seem to support a journey of that distance either). Or Riverrun? I think the big question is, how did they get together in the first place. Even if you don't subscribe to a consensual relationship, in order for there to be a kidnap, they stil need to be in proximity to each other.

Was Lyanna on her way to KL to become a lady (like Ned's daughters)? Would Rickard risk having his daughter near the Mad King? Could she be on her way to the Stormlands for preparations for her wedding? Isn't Summerhall in the Stormlands? Near Dorne? Like the TOJ?

What do you guys think?

No problem, and thanks for the thanks. I'm interested in this topic and have been trying to nail down as much information as possible to see if we can eliminate some of the uncertainties. Unfortunately, at least to my knowledge, much of what you are looking for can't be answered. Martin has left us without enough information - and for a very good reason. He doesn't want fans to figure out his mysteries before he wants to reveal them. Can't think of a storyteller who would want that.

Also, let me say Martin has said that he doesn't want people to try to measure his maps out and tell him things can't happen when they do. We do it anyway, both for the fun of it and because it is the only way to get any idea what takes place after what in parts of his timeline. My caution is to not use these kinds of methods for anything other than approximations. Even then they can get you into trouble. Errant Bard has done an overall global timeline (not relating to Robert's Rebellion, but to the story present) that is very interesting and I highly recommend looking at it, but all such things, most especially my own puny effort above should be looked at as a work in progress. But in it you will notice he describes the problem of "teleporting ships." Such things happen, meaning way too short of time for events to take place in the real world, but of course Martin's has magic in it and the ability to just not cover some troubling real world problems. Our author is fantastic in his world building in some respects, and not so fantastic in others.

If you have the time and interest look at my own efforts in two threads on character ages, one in the re-read section and one in the ADwD section. In particular, I'm trying to nail down Mya Stone's birth year which may help to tell us if the conversation between Ned and Lyanna concerning Robert's infidelities takes place before or after the tourney at Harrenhal. I think right now it's things like this that can help us sort some of this out. Hopefully, when Martin puts out his world book next year (no laughing please, because I believe it's coming on time - right, Ran?) and his Dunk and Egg novellas soon following, and, of course, when we get the next book in this series, we can fill in some of the gaps.

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Sorry, for any confusion, but I state explicitly in the text above that the end of the war in my timeline is with the lifting of the siege at Storm's End, not with the sack of King's Landing or the confrontation of Ned and company with the Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy.

Actually, I understood that you were placing the end of the war at the siege, but unfortunately I had a brain fart while reading your post, and took "13-14" months to mean "3-4 months more than a year." So yeah, the confusion was all mine. I blame sleep deprivation.

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From the end of the last thread, discussing the delay between Brandon and Rickard's deaths and the sack of King's Landing:

Go.

I haven't enough time to read all those post, sorry, but anyway this is my rougue timeline for the events between the HT and the beginning of the war

Well, as I said I think "about" means "a little more". The reason is IMO simple. We know there is about a year and a half between the harrenall tournment and the sack of KL. Let's say it was 18 months. Then, we know Brandon was supposed to marry Catelyn and that Lyanna didn't go back to Winterfell but she stayed in the south, were she was later abducted.

(We know she stayed in the South because, if she had gone back to WF, then she would have come south passing for the Riverlands, and how could have Rhaegar abducted her? Unless he travelled through the Riverlands bringing Lyanna with him for the whole way. Unlikely)

So, how long does it take to travel from the Riverlands to Winterfell? We know King Bob & his party took a little more than a month to go from KL to WF, but they were a bunch of people with a "wheeled house". So, let's say it takes between 2 and 3 weeks to go from the Riverlands to WF, with no hurry. If Lyanna stayed in the Riverlands, this means that it wasn't worth to go to WF and come back for the wedding, which means the wedding was supposed to be shortly after the end of the tournment. Let's say between 2 and 3 months, and I'm being generous. 10 weeks. So, Brandon found out about Lyanna about 1 week before the wedding. This is 9 weeks after the tournment. Let's say that hurried to KL and that was killed the day after he went there. Also, let's say that the news of his death - and Aerys's request for Ned's head - was carried by a raven (likely). So, IMO it was another 2 weeks before Ned found out what happened. 11 weeks after the tournment. Then Ned had to go home and call the banners. he went by ship, which is usually the quickest way, but we know he had some troubles at the sisters. So, he went home, he called the banners and they marched south. Let's say this took 5 weeks.

This is 4 months after the tournment, and would make the war about 14 months long. Also, i have been quite generous with the timeline (for example, I do believe cat&bran's wedding was supposed to take place about a month earlier than I wrote), but this is why I think the war lasted more than one year

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