[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I

[gedo]

And I don't think so either. But it's easier to believe that Bloodraven could possess Asha than Bran, although I think the explanation there is more straightforward (i.e. Asha's been communicating with a weirwood or something).

In AGOT, we saw 3EC/BR appeared in Bran's "dream" and gave Bran a lot of information. BR or Bran doesn't need to warg into her at all. Just sneak into her dream to plant the idea. She may not recognize the dream had some magical influence. I would guess that the idea matches what she'd want (give her brother quick and clean death, rather than burned alive which she herself feared), and act as if she herself came up with the idea.

[Poser]

^ That's such a good point, Bran may come to learn how to influence people through their dreams. It would be nice to see the first Asha chapter so that we can see her motivation...

[voodooqueen126]

Yes, but there was still stuff that related to Sansa indirectly:

1. Massey's talk with Stannis about wanting to marry Asha as her marriage happened by proxy and was unconsummated.

2. Sansa's love of lemoncakes was referenced when Theon was thinking of whether Jeyne would remember the name of the blacksmith :)

3. The mistaken/assumed identity theme is still being continued with Jeyne, which makes it probable that we'll see Sansa continuing to masquerade as Alayne for a while. I don't think any of the Stark children are going to find resuming their old identities an easy feat, and it won't happen in TWOW.

I really want Jeyne to stop pretending to be Arya soon. As this will help expose Littlefinger to the Vale Lords.

[brashcandy]

I really want Jeyne to stop pretending to be Arya soon. As this will help expose Littlefinger to the Vale Lords.

I know, but unfortunately, that doesn't seem likely to happen very soon. It's interesting how both "Aryas" need to cling to their new identities to survive.

[Alexia]

I really want Jeyne to stop pretending to be Arya soon. As this will help expose Littlefinger to the Vale Lords.

Littlefinger might end up being the one to expose her, when he moves to help Sansa retake Winterfell.

[Fire Eater]

For Stannis's strategy I too think it will go along the lines of the Battle of the Ice (Battle of Lake Peipus). When Stannis says replies yet to Theon saying they don't have any defenses, the village is in between two lakes, Stannis will probably have moats dug between the lakes at both ends to have the village completely surrounded by water, turning the village into an island.

[kg1982]

Okay based on this thread.. here are my observations.

1. I still think that Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter. It was done out of desperation. Stannis seems to have a few tricks up his sleeve in this chapter and I think that many Freys are going to end up as nummy ice treats for Lord Manderlay. I also think that there is rebellion inside Winterfell and Roose is dead. If Mance was taken, there would have been a fight. I think that Mance and the spearwives were killed but likely took down many people with them... Roose was one of them.

Without Roose to stop him, I think that Ramsay threatens the Night Watch. I think that it is the desperate threat of a man surrounded by his enemies. Winterfell is taken by Stannis and Ramsay is tortured and killed. Unfortunately, while Ramsay is being tortured, Jon Snow is being assassinated.

2. Asha has a plan... I agree with those who don't like the fact that Asha has been taken over by BR. I'd like the fact that it was her plan because she both loves him and need him to defeat Euron.

3. Stannis is so my co-pilot. Someone should recommend that he get rid of Mel and divorce Selyse. We have new queen pools for everyone else... I'd see Arianne as a good political match with Stannis.

4. I don't think anyone has mentioned this, but the most telling thing for me is the fact that the Northern lords care a lot about the Stark children, but not so much about the innocent commoners that get caught up in the situation. Stannis and friends would probably pardon Theon if he just killed the millers' boys, not Lord Stark's children. They were likely willing to let Jeyne Poole, be violently abused and raped to keep up the charade. (And all the Northerners know that it is a charade).

I've always thought that Martin's main point is that why would anyone want to be a ruler...Theon's moment of glory comes when he's utterly broken. And what he did - flying off the walls of Winterfell- was one of the most heroic actions whatever His Majesty the Crabby might suggest.

[skins7778]

Littlefinger might end up being the one to expose her, when he moves to help Sansa retake Winterfell.

Would he try to take Winterfell if Stannis is successful? If Davos comes through she has no claim to it I think Sansa might be staying Alysanne for awhile still unless she weds Aegon instead of Harry which is a stretch.

If Stannis fails and the Vale invades the North, Manderly and Glover wont recognize her as the heir to Winterfell because they know Bran and Rickon are out there somewhere.

[DurararaFTW]

4. I don't think anyone has mentioned this, but the most telling thing for me is the fact that the Northern lords care a lot about the Stark children, but not so much about the innocent commoners that get caught up in the situation. Stannis and friends would probably pardon Theon if he just killed the millers' boys, not Lord Stark's children. They were likely willing to let Jeyne Poole, be violently abused and raped to keep up the charade. (And all the Northerners know that it is a charade).

Theon, Ramsey and Roose are the only ones that know about Jeyne Pool, whe has ever been suggested otherwise? And like Theon says,

"The North remembers. The Red Wedding, Lady Hornwood's fingers, the sack of Winterfell, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square, they remember all of it."

[skins7778]

Theon, Ramsey and Roose are the only ones that know about Jeyne Pool, whe has ever been suggested otherwise?

I always assumed Lady Dustin knew but that could easily have been because she is close to Roose.

[Mark Antony]

And I'm firmly in the Mors Umber is the "Hooded Man of Winterfell" camp! He knew Theon instantly and Asha didn't know him till she heard his voice. He used the exact same words the HM did! I hope Mors survived what came through the gate!

whew, thought i was the only one who thought that for a second.

[cybroleach]

I'd never put stock in none Ramsay letter writers before but now...

• Theon's giving Stannis lines "He want's his Reek back"
  
• Stannis talks about rumours of his death and defeat.
  
• Stannis writing in blood because of the cold.
  

Stannis looks like a real viable option to me now. I strongly believe he saved Mance in ADWD his conversations with Jon show he's admiration for the man which is why he has fake Rattleshirt at his council meetings. My thoery would be Stannis besting Frey/Manderly/Ramsay armies, heading to Winterfell to either loose or reach a stalemate where he needs more men, thus seeks to provoke Jon into finally betraying his vows.

It's interesting that Stannis puts alot of trust in Massey, given as he's painted kind of spineless by Asha. Surely he has more than just Horpe who he can trust more than Massey? I guess Justin does have the virtue of being loyal to Stannis since AGOT as one of his Narrow Sea knights.

It's nice to see Stannis is upset at Davos' death. On Manderly bridging this subject, surely he will have a contract of their deal signed by Davos who has recently learned how to read and write his name. Also should Theon live to see this he will be brought to question as well perhaps saving himself as the two's stories prove the other's innocence.

[smuwilld]

My conclusion is Stannis sends a letter via Raven to Winterfell using Karstark's name.

Lord Bolton:

We have smashed Stannis's host in 7 days of battle. Stannis is dead. I have lightbringer.

Survivors, including "Arya", fleeing north to the wall.

Send reinforcements to [ambush location]

Love and kisses, Karstark

After that, Stannis has lured Roose out of Winterfell, leaving Ramsey behind. Ramsey sends the Pink Letter. Only the part about having Mance is true, but Ramsey believes all of it.

One thing I could never believe is Roose would allow Ramsey to send that letter.

This would explain Stannis keeping the ravens; it also explains why he would say you may hear reports of my death, but buy sells words anyway. Stannis considers that Roose will send word of his lie to King's Landing.

[cybroleach]

Three other things I wanted to go over were:

Alot of ppl here talk about his troops as if he's with them marching on Stannis. Lord Manderly as is even mentioned in this chapter is too fat too sit a horse can he really have marched with his troops on his ponderous litter? Also he was pretty badly wounded in Winterfell. I'd assume he and a few guards have stayed in Winterfell while a trusted knight (or HM if he is Glover) has command of his men in the field.

Asha what's this new relationship with her and Stannis she is allowed to keep guards now? Has Stannis reconsidered her offer of her allegiance now that she has 7 troops to fight for him.

Also Sellswords: I'm sure in the entire world there more sellsword companies than at slavers bay. Hell Stannis says "No less than 20K" which is more than all the combined companies we hear of in all of ASOIAF 18K. He's probably quite right that there are thousands in the Disputed Lands where there's always fighting.

[Miriel]

Two other things I wanted to go over were:

Alot of ppl here talk about his troops as if he's with them marching on Stannis. Lord Manderly as is even mentioned in this chapter is too fat too sit a horse can he really have marched with his troops on his ponderous litter? Also he was pretty badly wounded in Winterfell. I'd assume he and a few guards have stayed in Winterfell while a trusted knight (or HM if he is Glover) has command of his men in the field.

Asha what's this new relationship with her and Stannis she is allowed to keep guards now? Has Stannis reconsidered her offer of her allegiance now that she has 7 troops to fight for him.

Right. I hope he survives, but how would he get out? He would have to have enough knights left to guard him though, which would weaken his force out in the field some. But what was in all those wagons he brought up to WF with him? Was it ALL just food? Didn't he bring a very large number of wagons?

Re Asha: Maybe Stannis trusts Asha in and around his camp? Good observation though.

I swore I would not read any more sample chapters. But I am glad I did. That was awesome!

[Ygritte]

My conclusion is Stannis sends a letter via Raven to Winterfell using Karstark's name.

Lord Bolton:

We have smashed Stannis's host in 7 days of battle. Stannis is dead. I have lightbringer.

Survivors, including "Arya", fleeing north to the wall.

Send reinforcements to [ambush location]

Love and kisses, Karstark

After that, Stannis has lured Roose out of Winterfell, leaving Ramsey behind. Ramsey sends the Pink Letter. Only the part about having Mance is true, but Ramsey believes all of it.

One thing I could never believe is Roose would allow Ramsey to send that letter.

This would explain Stannis keeping the ravens; it also explains why he would say you may hear reports of my death, but buy sells words anyway. Stannis considers that Roose will send word of his lie to King's Landing.

I LIKE.

[Lord Godric]

The lead up to the Red Wedding, where Robb had just outlined a brilliant plan to retake the North, he was making plans to join back up with Jon, his political disaster was being smoothed over, "now let's just get through this wedding and everything will turn around". And then the hammer fell, and you realized that it was all much too late. Well, maybe Stannis is about to find out that his own mistakes have gone too far to be corrected.

I don't see any comparisons to the lead up to the Red Wedding. With the Red Wedding the clues to the tragedy that would take place were definitely there. Robb continued to screw up time and time again and things were not really going that well for him. Stannis has not made any blatantly obvious mistakes, like Robb did, and hasn't made any large enemies yet. So if some tragedy is awaiting Stannis, I don't think it is coming soon. There just are no signs like there were before the Red Wedding.

[Lord Godric]

Excellent chapter!! What a great Christmas present from Mr Martin:) It was a joy to see Stannis in action. Thank you SO much!

I found two things nicely surprising. Stannis, who isn't smoozy or complimentary by nature at ALL , gives the North two compliments. He says to Karstark "Confess, and you shall have the same swift end that the Young Wolf gave Lord Rickard. Lie, and you will burn. Choose." And then he says ," They did not need to know. They are Karhold men. When the moment came they would have obeyed their lords, as they had done all their lives." Both of those lines pleased me.

Someone was wondering if this was a misprint:

"Lord Ramsay," Theon hissed. "The son, not the father. You must not let him take him. "

I think it's printed as George wanted it. Poor Theon:( He KNOWS his name now and it's NOT Reek.

I assumed it was a misprint as it would not be the only one in the passage ("Take off my head off and stick it on a spear.") but it would be interesting if Theon was now referring to Reek as if it were an entirely separate person from himself. If that is the case, his descent into madness is deeper than I thought.

[Westrosi]

OK, so, imo

1. Upon orders from Ramsey, the Freys take the lead and attack Stannis, with the Manderlys meant to bring up the rear.

2. As many have surmised, the trap is that the ice surrounding the tower traps and kills a majority of the Frey attackers.

3. The Manderly troops, instead of bringing up the rear, kill the fleeing Frey survivors (yea, Frey downfall continues), giving Stannis, watching from the tower, reason to pause and hear Manderly out.

4. Wise fat old Manderly will product a painstakingly written letter from Davos (all that illiteracy/learning to read comes in to play here), helping Stannis come to agreement with Manderly.

5. Manderly returns to Winterfell with Stannis's sword, with story that Stannis dead and that the Freys are out dealing with captives.

6. Ramsey SNOW, knowing the threat of Stannis is gone and that he doesn't need his father, kills his father and his Frey wife.

7. Ramsey knows he has to get fake Arya back before Jon sees her/outs her as a non-Stark, so he writes the Pink Letter to lure Jon out...

8. Ramsey leaves Winterfell to head north to retrieve fake-Arya, as Stannis knew he would (hence why he sent Arya north), leaving Winterfell largely undefended, since Ramsey believes Stannis to be dead.

9. King Stannis the first of his name takes Winterfell easily and moves north to crush Ramsey.

All hail Stannis.

[tze]

I don't see any comparisons to the lead up to the Red Wedding. With the Red Wedding the clues to the tragedy that would take place were definitely there. Robb continued to screw up time and time again and things were not really going that well for him. Stannis has not made any blatantly obvious mistakes, like Robb did, and hasn't made any large enemies yet. So if some tragedy is awaiting Stannis, I don't think it is coming soon. There just are no signs like there were before the Red Wedding.

I'd disagree with that. By burning weirwood trees, both at Storm's End and beyond the Wall, he made enemies of every devout Old Gods worshiper in the North, and I'd say there's a zero percent chance that the clansmen are unaware of at least one of those events, especially since the burning of "Mance Rayder" was apparently spread far and wide, and there's an excellent chance the burning of the weirwood pieces was also spread far and wide. By offering to hand Winterfell over to the Karstarks---the House that abandoned the Young Wolf---he probably pissed off a bunch of people as well. He let wildlings through the Wall and then basically left them to their own devices; the only reason they're not raiding south right now is because Jon, the Winterfell-raised son of Lord Stark, stepped in to rather publicly clean up Stannis's mess. Alysanne Mormont has hinted that she's been in contact with her mother (she mentions in ADWD that she knows her sisters are with Maege) and Lyanna Mormont seemed to be pulling a Wylla Manderly when she announced the Mormonts would only follow the King in the North; with Maege's knowledge of Robb's will, coupled with Lyanna's proclamation, it sounds likely that the Mormonts haven't given up the King in the North dream. The Liddles are "with" Stannis, yet none of them have mentioned their man meeting up with Brandon Stark, which is rather striking. We have the clansmen, Umbers, and Mormonts going after a potential "Arya" figure in Winterfell, we have Manderly sending Davos after Rickon and telling him to be sure to bring the direwolf to confirm the kid's identity, yet oddly enough nobody's making the obvious "let's ask the Lord Commander of the Watch to confirm this person's identity" proposal. It's almost as if they want to draw attention away from Jon, and there's only one obvious reason to do that. There are a number of ways that Wyman Manderly could be planning to fulfill the letter of his vow with Davos while still screwing Stannis over (Rickon isn't really his liege lord, Wyman might be on a suicide mission and his son isn't bound by his vow, etc.). Robb's will hasn't resurfaced yet, and I think there's a plot-based reason for that.

Each of these things, taken individually, isn't definitive. But there are a large number of little hints that, taken together, could easily foreshadow a plot by the Lords of the North to play Stannis and the Boltons against each other, destroy them both, and then freely declare a new Stark King in the North (especially as we saw the elements of a plot to free the Lannister/Frey hostages in the Riverlands back in AFFC).

For that matter, Roose was sending the Freys out one gate and the Manderlys out another. We know what happened to the Freys, but what happened to the Manderly host? Did they stay inside Winterfell? Did they ride out the East Gate? If they did ride out, then there's little chance Crowfood missed it, and if he didn't send a message to Stannis, well, that's another hint that perhaps the North isn't really playing on Team Stannis.