[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 2

[PatrickStormborn]

What a fantastic chapter! I'm now even more excited for TWoW. Does anyone think that GRRM may have written more of it than he's letting on?

I'm sure it's already been discussed, but one thought I had was that Bran was possibly warging Asha. It just seemed a little bit strange (and coincidental) to me that she'd try and persuade Stannis to kill him by a weirwood. I wonder if Bran could influence her without actually warging her?

Anyway, I really don't think that Ramsay's letter is legit. Stannis still has too much to do in the story as the fake Azor Ahai.

[bemused]

Hmmm..Tybald was originally from the Dreadfort. He might have a scrap of pink wax with him...

I do feel at least one of those Ravens could get to the Wall.... or maybe both. Stannis warns Massey he may hear of his death...

Maybe we're back to the letter being from Stannis , to draw down fresh troops, somehow . To trick Jon into sending aid ? ( Or to give him cover for sending aid ...? )

I foresee more re-thinking for me...

[Wouter]

"Who says Theon is the first POV chapter? Normally the books starts with a prologue, anyway, and this is not the prologue."It's not? I guess I misunderstood the term "first chapter". I got the impression this was the prologue. My bad.

It will be Theon's first chapter in TWOW (maybe with some revisions by the time this book comes out, which will take a long while yet), but it will certainly be after the prologue and possibly other POV's will get their first chapter in before Theon does. Martin himself does not know the final outline yet, chapter order is far from being set in stone with most chapters yet to be written (including probably some first chapters for certain POVs).

[ARYa_Nym]

I'm not seeing what Arya would kill Jeyne for if she were to see her again.

Arya wouldn't have wanted to be Ramsay's wife.

"I will be a good wife to him, and t-true.I...I will please him and give him songs. I will be a better wife than the real Arya could have been, he'll see."

The only thing that would upset her is this type of talk but that doesn't mean that she would actually kill her.

"...Your sister used to call you Arya Horseface." "It was me made up that name. Her face was long and horsey. Mine isn't. I was pretty."

They weren't friends and didn't like each other but other than that I don't see why Arya would care much about her.

I'm not sure where this Izembaro person is that she's supposed to be going to is anyway.

"..On the morrow you will go to Izembaro to begin your first apprenticeship. Take what clothes you will from the vault below. The city watch is looking for a certain ugly girl, known to frequent the Purple Harbor, so best you have a new face as well...A pretty one this time, I think. As pretty as your own..."

[dreamcatcher]

I think this post by smuwild in the previous thread proposes the most credible theory by now:

My conclusion is Stannis sends a letter via Raven to Winterfell using Karstark's name.

Lord Bolton:

We have smashed Stannis's host in 7 days of battle. Stannis is dead. I have lightbringer.

Survivors, including "Arya", fleeing north to the wall.

Send reinforcements to [ambush location]

Love and kisses, Karstark

After that, Stannis has lured Roose out of Winterfell, leaving Ramsey behind. Ramsey sends the Pink Letter. Only the part about having Mance is true, but Ramsey believes all of it.

One thing I could never believe is Roose would allow Ramsey to send that letter.

This would explain Stannis keeping the ravens; it also explains why he would say you may hear reports of my death, but buy sells words anyway. Stannis considers that Roose will send word of his lie to King's Landing.

On an unrelated note, there's something fishy about the swords in Winterfell and why we keep going back to the number of the missing swords. Are all the missing swords accounted for? I remember there was quite a debate about it when ADwD came out...

[David C. Hunter]

I think this post by smuwild in the previous thread proposes the most credible theory by now:

On an unrelated note, there's something fishy about the swords in Winterfell and why we keep going back to the number of the missing swords. Are all the missing swords accounted for? I remember there was quite a debate about it when ADwD came out...

Roose Bolton is too much of a coward to ever leave Winterfell. He isnt stupid either and Im not sure that there is anything that Stannis can do that would provoke Roose Bolton to leave that security. Who knows, but I believe that the only way to beat specifically Roose Bolton and his reserves is to attack the castle and somehow get in.

[irishtemper]

I think this post by smuwild in the previous thread proposes the most credible theory by now:

On an unrelated note, there's something fishy about the swords in Winterfell and why we keep going back to the number of the missing swords. Are all the missing swords accounted for? I remember there was quite a debate about it when ADwD came out...

The missing ones are accounted for except for the ones that rusted away from the oldest kings in the north and they are now free to roam the castle

[wvlr]

Arya didn't let them know, but they knew anyway. The Boltons didn't care. Tywin told Jaime as much after Jaime met her on his return to King's Landing. And Ramsay remembered that Arya had grey eyes. He knew that the girl that was sent to them was not the real deal. They may not have known that she was in reality Jeyne Poole, but they knew she was not Arya Stark.

Yes, both the Bolton's know. I do not have any quotes here, but when i read aDwD, it seemed clear on that.

I am not a big Stannis or Theon fan, but I did enjoy their aDwD chapters a lot. (Does that make sense?). That said I want to say: Thank you George! Thank you George!! Thank you George!!!

I thought the whole Stannis, Winterfell and Wall thing ended very disjointed and confusing, but with this chapter, it falls together a lot better. My opinion is that it should have been kept in the aDwD book.

On the "letter issue" I never bought into the idea that Stannis or Mel or mance or someone else wrote it. It just would have been so counter productive to what those people want - Jon's good will.

But the last two Theon chapeters and Jon chapter just made no sense.

First we see Theon jumping with the Freys and Manderlies getting ready to head out.

Next we see Theon getting to Stannis' camp, with no explanation of why he was not caught by the exiting Freys or why they did not immediately attack Stannis' camp.

Then we got the letter, that did not seem to match up.

With this new chapter it really pulls it all together. The Umbers had a great little trap set up and it sent the Freys running back into their Winterfell hole. The Manderlies were probably well behind the Freys and either returned without casulties or maybe "helped" the Freys in their retreat.

After that it would take some time for the Bolton's to organize a real attack plan (which was noticably lacking the first time). So that clears up the time gap.

On top of that, we get come more info on the Stannis camp and Stannis thinking. aDwD told us about the "lakes", and now we see that Stannis is not just sitting back and waiting.

Quote: "We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."

and

Quote: "It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."

Put these two together with the facts that Stannis has now squashed the Karstark betrayal, learned of the Crow tricks and even making plans for people "you may hear that I am dead"

Seems to me to be paving the way for Stannis laying a nice little "double trap" of his own and using the lakes, the Karstarks and crows, to trick the Boltons into thinking that he is dead. If Stannis "connects" with Manderly along the way, it will just make the trap even more believable.

I doubt the Asha / Bran thing. She clearly is either trying to save him from an unpleasent "fire" death or going to try something on her own, which is very unlikely in itself as she has had little time & is a prisoner herself.

I do think that there is a good chance that Bran is going to try to interceed. He knows that Theon is innocent of killing him and Rickon. Bran has a good heart, he probably does not completely forgive Theon, but from the reaction of the Tree and the Crows, he is trying to "do" things to help people he knows.

As extreemely good as this was, i doubt that it is the final version. It can only get better with the rewrites he does over the next couple years. Also, it will probably be a bit longer when it actually comes out in tWoW.

Again I say: Thank you George! Thank you George!! Thank you George!!!

[bemused]

But I think Theon has re -opened the sword question a bit.. Four were accounted for between what we knew from previous books and those that were mentioned during Theon's visit with Lady Barbrey. Now Theon says four or five ..I can't remember ... Gee, thanks, T.

He may well have noticed one more than she drew to his attention. We may have reason to think she was actually down there to count swords, but he wouldn't , so it wouldn't be odd for him to not mention it at the time.

[schrecklich]

Wow, what a great chapter and a great set of threads it's spawned (being sick, there wasn't much else I could do today besides sit here and read the chapter plus all the posts here). This much discussion generated by a single chapter really bodes well for TWoW whenever it comes out.

Sorry, I tried not to repeat what everyone else said other than grouping some relevant points together, but this still ended up really long:

* Like Ran and some other early posters, I was irked by the raven logistics reveal. It's a good example of one of my biggest pet peeves with Martin -- introducing something new four or five books into the series the absence of which is glaringly absent in the previous books (like how Westeros seemed to be devoid of niello before ADwD and is now flooded with it). If most ravens can only fly to one place, how have we gone so long without hearing anything at all about maesters shipping cages of ravens around the realm to keep supplies up? This must be a constant issue, especially at remote places like Castle Black, unless they keep a large supply of ravens in reserve at each castle (at least three or four trained to fly to every other castle in the realm, probably over ten for more important places like Oldtown and King's Landing).

There is precedent for spoiler chapters changing before print (e.g. Janos Slynt's beheading). I hope Martin considers at least changing to say that some birds know only one place but most know two or something like that. Having ravens be able to fly back and forth between two castles would simplify things a fair amount. Readers might wonder about how maesters train the ravens to fly to two places, but the maesters seem crafty enough to figure that out. At least there would not need to be a constant shuttling of caged ravens around the realm. Any way, this is not a major plot point and didn't really detract much from my enjoyment of the chapter, but it did irk me.

* I'm not sure what has gotten into Asha -- both pity for her brother (wanting him beheaded rather than burned) and the possibility of a pardon before the weirwood seem plausible to me. Escape, especially a forced escape, seems unlikely given that Asha herself is still a prisoner (and wounded) and is surrounded by a desolate snow-covered wilderness with no allies for hundreds of miles. Someone "warging" into her seems unlikely. The whole plot just falls apart at that point for me -- Bloodraven might as well have been warging in to everyone for the last eighty years.

* Theon's timeline is confusing for me. His escape took place just before the Freys and Manderlys were supposed to leave Winterfell. Apparently the Freys rode out into Crowfood's trap. Theon says to Stannis that the Freys and Manderlys are still coming, as is Ramsay. Is Theon referring to the continuation of the initiative undertaken at the time of his escape? Or a second wave after Crowfood's trap repeled the initial assault? How does Theon know that Ramsay is coming? Did he overhear some intelligence that Crowfood received, or is he merely surmising that since he and Jeyne fled that Ramsay will hunt them down himself just as he did when Theon and Kyra tried to escape before?

* Related to intelligence that Crowfood might have, how does he recognize Theon instantly when even Asha does not? Previous posters' pointing out of the similarity between his words and the hooded man inside Winterfell are pretty intriguing. We should also keep in mind that Whoresbane Umber is inside Winterfell and as far as we know Crowfood and Whoresbane are on good terms. They are playing both sides, but we can't be sure which way they will ultimately side.

* Also related to timeline of the assault of Winterfell, many people are speculating that Manderly will change sides in the field of battle. Even in good health and good weather, I do not think Manderly would ride out into open battle (he didn't ride south with Robb). Currently, the ground is thick with snow and the last time we saw Manderly he was unconscious and covered in blood from a sword wound to the throat. I still think the men he sent out could try some form of sabotage -- retreating before the battle is engaged and letting the Freys get overwhelmed or something like that. The best use that Manderly could make of his current position in my eyes is to have his men force open a gate at night when Stannis makes a clandestine assault. For that, Manderly would need to avoid openly changing sides whilst still inside Winterfell (unless his men can help Stannis kill every Frey so that Winterfell does not hear about the treachery; a false report from the Winterfell ravens could help with this). Stannis will have trouble taking Winterfell without help from the inside, and Manderly doesn't want to stay locked up with Boltons and Freys for longer than he needs to.

* Many people seem to distrust Ser Justin Massey. It could very well be a misreading on my part, but I see Massey as being one of Stannis' most loyal men after Davos Seaworth and Richard Horpe. Massey seems to be the only one in the camp outside of Horpe trying to give sensible/truth-based advice to Stannis. The rest of Stannis' men are delusional fanatics of R'hllor, lickspittles, or northmen of dubious loyalty. He is pretty eager to secure a wife, but that does not necessarily mean that he is itching to turn his cloak.

* Regarding Massey and the free companies, surely there are more companies available than the ones featured in ADwD. As others have mentioned though, the Volantenes were still hiring troops and shipping them east, so by the time Massey gets to Essos there might not be much left to choose from west of Slaver's Bay. Still, I can't see him traveling further than Volantis in search of men.

* Finally, there's the letter with the pink seal. I think this letter is a little game GRRM is playing with us, much like the Azor Ahai prophecy, the valonqar prophecy, Jon's parentage, etc. I don't think we are supposed to be able to tell if the letter is real or fake at this point. George is giving compelling evidence for both cases. Points I am wondering about:

** Somewhat in favor of the letter being forged by someone other than Ramsay:

- why does the pink wax not have a seal?

- why was the letter written in a distinctive, spiky style rather than a maester's? Based on the story Roose told Theon of Ramsay's background, I would not think that he ever learned to write, though Roose might have insisted on it after taking him in.

- why does the language of the letter mirror Theon's words to Stannis? Is it just Ramsay rubbing off on Theon?

- would Mance or the spearwives cave under torture? Even if they did, why would they reveal Mance's identity? I would think the Boltons would be more interested in the identity of the person who sent Mance and not probe so much after his own identity, since they wouldn't have much reason to suspect that Abel was a noteworthy hostage. I don't think anyone inside Winterfell would recognize Mance by his appearance.

- on the other hand, Mance surely would recognize that Jeyne is not Arya based on how quickly he recognized Jon. He saw her at the wedding feast when he played music. Why did he still go through with the rescue plan? Perhaps it has something to do with wanting to manipulate Jon into acting in a certain way?

- letter talks of Stannis' defeat and death. Stannis seems to be expecting such reports to be going out.

- so far, Theon is still with Stannis, so the letter's request for Reek is puzzling if Stannis has really been defeated (though it seems Jeyne will be gone by the time the battle starts and there is still time for Theon to disappear).

** Somewhat in favor of the letter being sent by Ramsay but misinformed:

- Stannis has just discovered the tools necessary to send two false reports about himself to Winterfell.

- Stannis seems to be in a good position to win the next battle in which case the letter contents would be false.

** Somewhat in favor of the letter being sent by Ramsay truthfully or containing only intentional lies:

- the voice sounds somewhat like Ramsay (if he would refer to someone as a bastard so blatantly despite his own sensitivity to the word?).

- the letter appears to be written in blood which fits Ramsay's style.

- we don't know if Stannis still has Castle Black ravens to send to Jon.

** The motive behind the letter (pretty debatable which side has the best motive for sending the letter):

- fake letter: to get Jon to bring a bunch Night's Watch or Wildling troops to aid in the attack on Winterfell. I have trouble with this. Stannis has too much honor to try this. He would just ask for troops. He also doesn't know about Mance, neither does Theon. Mance himself seems to be the only one who knows everything needed to write the letter, but I would think a more direct approach would have been more effective ("Please send more Wildlings, sincerely, Rattleshirt").

- letter from Ramsay after defeating Stannis or believing that he defeated Stannis: if Stannis were really defeated, the letter could be real. I doubt the Boltons could have predicted the letter would result in Jon's assassination, but it would be convenient for them to stir things up at Castle Black before having to waste resources so far north with the rest of the North so unsettled.

- letter from Ramsay lying about Stannis: the argument here is that the Boltons are desperate and want Jon to give them leverage over Stannis. This seems unlikely since Jon would not meekly turn hostages over to them. If Stannis were not really defeated, whatever group Jon sent to Winterfell would probably run into Stannis and just end up reinforcing him.

[BrosBeforeSnows]

I really think this chapter was foreshadowing Stannis's death.

Why? Theon warns him several times how hardcore Ramsay is, and tells him not to mess with him. Stannis casually blows him off, as if "the Bastard" is a nobody... In hindsight, Stannis should've listened to Theon.

And later in the chapter, when talking to Massey, Stannis tells him to put Shireen on the throne if he dies (which he admits, is rather likely).

There's no way he survives the battle with Ramsay.

And, if he really does take Theon to the Isle of Faces, I think Theon will escape, somehow, with Stannis's sword.

At least, those are my initial thoughts.

Clearly, Bloodraven/Bran was communicating through the ravens, but to what end?

Is it safe to assume there are CotF living under the trees on the Isle of Faces? If so, they might play some kind of part in this.

[Chise]

The editors better get on the damn raven thing and fix it!! Seriously, the birds are one-way?!? So all the bazillion letters sent flyin around for previous 5 books were just... random location roulette?!? Do they have lil destination labels permanently tied to their lil legs while they're in the cages? (unless the maester is just trollin' Stannis. That would make more sense, but probably not in that content)

Westeros - y u no invent pony express

[PatrickStormborn]

I really don't think Stannis will die anytime soon. Who else will fulfil the role of the blue eyed king (with lightbringer and no shadow) that Dany saw in the House of the Undying?

[bemused]

Hold on.. I think we're mixing up our letters . The pink letter of infamy was probably not written in Ramsay's distinctive hand , since it's the one time the narrator doesn't take note of the style of hand. Furthermore, it's hinted that it's not written in blood , by Tormund commenting , after seeing it ,that if he had a pot of maester's ink , he could write what he wanted. I'm sure Tormund would know the look of dried blood.

I don't think those at Winterfell could know just how many wildlings were at the wall , but Stannis could. Nestoris was still there when Val returned . So Stannis may have reason to think Jon could send reinforcements , without committing the NW. TN would not divulge his agreement with Jon , but he would have no qualms in reporting whatever he observed or was told of John's plans , outside of their contract.

[Sun]

The editors better get on the damn raven thing and fix it!! Seriously, the birds are one-way?!? So all the bazillion letters sent flyin around for previous 5 books were just... random location roulette?!? Do they have lil destination labels permanently tied to their lil legs while they're in the cages? (unless the maester is just trollin' Stannis. That would make more sense, but probably not in that content)

Westeros - y u no invent pony express

:laugh:

[The Human Abstract]

I just sort of assumed that the raven's could only fly to one destination only but that they could also fly back home.

[Slurms McKenzie]

I really don't think Stannis will die anytime soon. Who else will fulfil the role of the blue eyed king (with lightbringer and no shadow) that Dany saw in the House of the Undying?

Precisely. Besides Stannis is more of a match for Ramsay!

[Tini]

Why would anybody then need the maesters to tell the birds where to go? I thought the point was that the maesters could tell the birds to fly where they wanted them. Useless bunch, all of them.

[Jory]

I really don't think Stannis will die anytime soon. Who else will fulfil the role of the blue eyed king (with lightbringer and no shadow) that Dany saw in the House of the Undying?

Don't the Boltons have blue eyes? I don't remember...

[GoodGuyA]

It's an overall good chapter, but I really don't like the seemingly out of character attitudes for Theon, Asha, and Stannis.

I feel like Theon made too big of a leap from "weeping mess" at the end of the last book to what is happening here where he's poking at the king with a stick. He's also still terrified of Ramsay in just the name, but that wasn't even the most enforced thing he came across in his indoctrination. Also there seemed to be no mention of his scars.

Asha suddenly having sympathy just feels like she went through some arc in between being captured and seeing Theon, which was not evident in ADWD at all. It was clever of her though to suggest that thing to Stannis at the end, and it's a better characterization but just not consistent.

Just try and compare Stannis' interactions with Jon, and then this interaction with Theon. The scenarios vary only to a small degree, really, but Stannis is just completely dismissive of Theon's very existence as well as going about business directly in front of him. By the way, where are they that Stannis both conducts business and hangs his prisoners in the same room? I just felt like he was being too malicious, which contrasts the quiet nature of him over the past in ADWD.

Still a good reintroduction, and I hope this book shall be done some time!