[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 2

[RemitMan]

I think that the trigger that will cause Arya to reclaim her identity as Arya will be the FM asking her to kill Arya Stark (who is actually Jeyne Poole).

[the Scorpion Knight]

I think that the trigger that will cause Arya to reclaim her identity as Arya will be the FM asking her to kill Arya Stark (who is actually Jeyne Poole).

i think she 'll simply abandon them and help jeyne maybe even reveal herself to justin massey his face would be priceless

[Wouter]

1. The letter was definitely Jon Snow's to Stannis about the Karstarks (yet another example, BTW, of him interfering in the war and breaking-- or very much bending-- his oaths).

Contrary to what is popular belief on those forums, the actual NW oaths (we have the entire text) don't say anything at all about staying neutral in the affairs of the realm. It is custom to do so, because it usually is the only thing to do that makes sense (if the Watch rebels against the lord paramount of the north or the iron throne, they will be defeated in short order and the leaders beheaded). In the circumstances where the Watch found itself by late ASOS, neutrality had become a pipedream as by that time the Seven Kingdoms were being warred over by 5 kings (or their followers) - one of which came to the wall and responded to the Watch's call for help.

The Watch ceased being neutral the minute Stannis appeared at their doorstep and defeated Mance Rayder for them - with Stannis right there and the other contendors wanting him to die, supplying Stannis and housing his troops tells everything about who the Watch supports, regardless of what some words on paper may say.

Since Stannis is the only king willing to help the Watch and also the only king aware of the danger north of the Wall, he is also the King that the Wall needs in the north (and preferably on places where dragonglass can be found as well, like at Dragonstone - Stannis and the NW realise they need this for weapons against the Others). That Jon supports this king (while not officially admitting so as per his "paper shield") is thus actually a smart move for the Wall.

Especially since the Lannisters (Tywin through Slynt and Cersei through assassins) wanted him remowed from command from the Watch anyway (also not officially admitted, of course) and a Lannister puppet (say, Slynt) named in his place.

Regarding Theon and his pending execution: if he gets executed, it will be as Asha asked, I think. Stannis is unlikely to refuse her as he will see the need to appease his northern lords. However, since the books have also heavily hinted at Asha using Theon as an excuse to declare the Kingsmoot null and void, it may yet be the case that Theon will be spared (depending on what Bran may do at the tree, the northern lords may even accept this). Theon doesn't need to become king himself, nor even Asha become queen necessarily, it is sufficient that Theon wasn't given a chance as a candidate that may invalidate Euron's choosing. This will only work if the Ironborn are starting to have second thoughts about choosing Euron in the first place, but it may only take a resounding defeat to Redwyne and/or Garlan in the Reach to do so (and I think that may be coming up - Euron did send the best part of the Ironborn, the Iron Fleet, on a wild goose chase to Meereen and that will be a handicap against Redwyne).

[Lummel]

I think that the trigger that will cause Arya to reclaim her identity as Arya will be the FM asking her to kill Arya Stark (who is actually Jeyne Poole).

But the kindly old man knows who Arya is.

[jon rr stark]

Just re-read ADWD 'A ghost in Winterfell' and found some nice foreshadowing of what happens in the last part of the Christmas Gift Chapter.

For you all the text:

Theon ponders and wants to die. He wonders if he dares to go to Roose and ask him as a reward <a man's death, sword in hand. That was a gift Ramsay would never give him, but Lord Roose might.>

Theon thinks he deserves this gift, he gave the girl away for Roose.

Theon goes to the godswood, where the heart tree is <waiting with its knowing red eyes>.

He bowes his head before the carved face.

Then he hears his name whispered.

The tree calls him by his true name and acknowledges him as Theon - not as Reek.

<The old gods, he thought. They know me. They know my name. I am Theon of House Greyjoy.

I was a ward of Eddard Stark, a friend a brother to his children.

"Please."

He fell to his knees.

"A sword, that's all I ask. Let me die as Theon, not as Reek."

A leaf drifted down from above, brushed by his brow, and landed in the pool. It floated on the water, red, five-fingered, like a bloody hand.

"... Bran"> murmures the tree. Theon for a moment recognises Bran's face in the face in the tree.

<Bran's ghost, he thought.>

In the Gift Chapter it looks like Theon could get what he asked for ... if Stannis is willing to execute him in the Northern way, with his own sword and before the tree of the old Gods.

I first thought Stannis would not do this. But he could: he gave his men who believe in the Red God their sacrifices by burning lots of men, maybe he thinks it is time to give his 'north men' their sacrifice.

But will Stannis be prepared to sell his decision to Melisandre, Selyse and the Queens Men - who will not like this northern style sacrifice a bit, I expect.

A nice parallel by the way to Jon's dangerous path in his last chapter in ADWD: antagonising the beliefs of his 'old men'.

Stannis need the Northmen for this fight. This is 'their ground', they are the ones in the best condition and best suited to fighting on foot and in winter if anybody is. They will be up againist the 'southern' Freys assuming Manderly doesnt join the fight. So its the northern clans who will the fight for him his southern knights will not be much to him without their horses.

On the rest my hasty guess is there will be a battle with Stannis's forces v the freys. The Manderlys will abstain or attack the Frey rear ( depending on manderlys plan on how to contact Stannis) Ramsey was behind the other two, thus may come to the fight late. Honester(spell?) Frey is angry and not expecting much resistance from the reports and map he has had, so easly sucked into an ambush, especially with the more sensible frey dead. Ramsey stumbles into his Van in full route, which will mean he is outnumbered and caught unawares. Result he is harryed all the way back to winterfell, He is outnumbered possibily inside and outside winterfell. Stannis doesn't have the stores or seige equipment to break winterfells walls. Ramsey cant run and cant fight. Result what can I do get some hostages. Plan dont go so well, Jon a bit unwell at the moment (dead dont be silly) The wildlings soon to introduced to who they think is Arya,They were prepared to march for Jon, Whats changed except that they may know Stannis (the man responsible for letting them come south of the wall) is alive, Ramsey in a bad way and winterfell and the wintertown empty just waiting for new residents for winter. So Ramsey has now got several thousand forces against him, all used to a bit of snow. Stannis wins the north and has an unexpected army to hand. Things are looking rosy. opps is the that the others climbing over the remainder of the wall. Queue, the real fight.

Ok I got a bit carried away there. Basically Ramsey is desperate, Stannis is on the march. Can anyone hear the wolves.

[Wouter]

I think that the trigger that will cause Arya to reclaim her identity as Arya will be the FM asking her to kill Arya Stark (who is actually Jeyne Poole).

Who would have a motive to want either "Arya" or Jeyne dead, and have the means to hire the FM?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

1. The letter was definitely Jon Snow's to Stannis about the Karstarks (yet another example, BTW, of him interfering in the war and breaking-- or very much bending-- his oaths).

Does it say, anywhere, in the Night's Watch vows that the men have to be neutral? They may strive for neutrality, given that they have men from so many different regions and families, and for expediency (they couldn't survive a direct challenge from a major house, most likely). But I think that's more of an organic tradition based on political realities. It's certainly not reflected in the vows themselves. When Jon was going to go fight for Robb, his issue wasn't that he was "taking part" in a political affair, it was that he was abandoning his post.

Given that Stannis is the only king thus far to take the threat of the Others seriously and give any real aid to the Wall at all, I'd argue that it's in the Night's Watch's interest and in keeping with their oaths to support him. Their first and foremost purpose is to protect the realms of men, and Stannis is the only king taking that responsibility seriously.

[Wouter]

As much as I enjoyed this chapter, it once again rekindled my anger about the contents of ADWD. I mean, really...we had to endure an entire chapter dedicated to the current state of Castle Black's food supply when we instead could have gotten this??

GRRM is in serious need of some strict no-bullshit editor.

I liked the food supply chapter, it makes it more realistic considering what an overriding concern the foodsituation must be in even a "normal" northern winter. I feel it's important that this chapter showed Jon being a decent commander, thinking about the logistics of running the Watch, in very dificult circumstances. It also gave a nice view of Bowen Marsh, and why he is important for the Watch.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I liked the food supply chapter, it makes it more realistic considering what an overriding concern the foodsituation must be in even a "normal" northern winter. I feel it's important that this chapter showed Jon being a decent commander, thinking about the logistics of running the Watch, in very dificult circumstances. It also gave a nice view of Bowen Marsh, and why he is important for the Watch.

I agree. It seems kind of "dull," but it also reminds me of Martin saying how you never saw, say, Aragorn's taxation policies. A lot of ruling is having to deal with mundane stuff like food inventory, and even that is of critical importance. It's not glamorous, but it is necessary. It showed Jon having to plan, with people's lives in the balance. Jon wasn't resting on his laurels or delegating the work to others. He got to work immediately and did the important stuff himself.

[Greybeard]

Who would have a motive to want either "Arya" or Jeyne dead, and have the means to hire the FM?

Besides, if the second Arya chapter in ADWD is any guide, a Faceless Man can refuse an assignment on the grounds that the target is known to them.

[FanTasy]

I agree. It seems kind of "dull," but it also reminds me of Martin saying how you never saw, say, Aragorn's taxation policies. A lot of ruling is having to deal with mundane stuff like food inventory, and even that is of critical importance. It's not glamorous, but it is necessary. It showed Jon having to plan, with people's lives in the balance. Jon wasn't resting on his laurels or delegating the work to others. He got to work immediately and did the important stuff himself.

:agree: , we saw a bit of the same in AGOT, when Robb took over lordship at Winterfell. It makes the world GRRM creates and the lives of the characters real. So are the descriptions of what people eat, that they wash and if they don't they smell bad and have lice.

[lordthade]

brashcandy, applemartini, and others:

Clearly whether WE think Jon's actions in warning Stannis were justified, it seems that GRRM has made the case that members of the Nights Watch did NOT agree with those actions and have subsequently taken steps to remove him as Lord Commander. :cool4:

Jon mulled the decision. That, to me, makes the point that he knew he shouldn't be offering this, as well.

On the flip side, let's hear it for Stannis for finally listening to others and making use of good counsel from people not named Davos. I'm heartened to see that he can learn to trust again.

[Jory]

brashcandy, applemartini, and others:

Clearly whether WE think Jon's actions in warning Stannis were justified, it seems that GRRM has made the case that members of the Nights Watch did NOT agree with those actions and have subsequently taken steps to remove him as Lord Commander. :cool4:

No, they did not agree with Jon leaving the Watch to attack Winterfell, not with Jon sending a letter.

Jon mulled the decision. That, to me, makes the point that he knew he shouldn't be offering this, as well.

I'm glad he did. He saved my main man Stannis' life.

On the flip side, let's hear it for Stannis for finally listening to others and making use of good counsel from people not named Davos. I'm heartened to see that he can learn to trust again.

He's never not done this, dude. It just so happens that all of his counselors, except for Davos, are fucking idiots/ambitious losers/fanatics.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

I liked the food supply chapter, it makes it more realistic considering what an overriding concern the food situation must be in even a "normal" northern winter. I feel it's important that this chapter showed Jon being a decent commander, thinking about the logistics of running the Watch, in very dificult circumstances. It also gave a nice view of Bowen Marsh, and why he is important for the Watch.

With so much going on in ASOIAF, GRRM obviously can't address everything, but I would have liked it if there was some explaination of how a society survives years-long winters. For example, after the burning of the Riverlands it sounds like that area has no food stores left. Is that realistic in such a world? You'd think that half the energy of the society would be put into storing and preserving food -- and HIDING the stores and reserves so their precious supplies aren't stolen.

You'd think other things would be different too -- like all the Northern castles would have underground tunnels like Castle Black, and the architecture would be different to sustain the weight of snow, and there'd be more snow-friendly transportation like sleighs or sledges, skis, dogsleds, that northern warriors would wear white when fighting in the snow, etc. And how the heck could anyone tolerate wearing plate armor in freezing weather?

Just sayin'. Carry on.

[R'hllor-Is-The-Truth]

With so much going on in ASOIAF, GRRM obviously can't address everything, but I would have liked it if there was some explaination of how a society survives years-long winters. For example, after the burning of the Riverlands it sounds like that area has no food stores left. Is that realistic in such a world? You'd think that half the energy of the society would be put into storing and preserving food -- and HIDING the stores and reserves so their precious supplies aren't stolen.

You'd think other things would be different too -- like all the Northern castles would have underground tunnels like Castle Black, and the architecture would be different to sustain the weight of snow, and there'd be more snow-friendly transportation like sleighs or sledges, skies, dogsleds, that northern warriors would wear white when fighting in the snow, etc. And how the heck could anyone tolerate wearing plate armor in freezing weather?

Just sayin'. Carry on.

I think thats why its a Fantasy not historical fiction. You just have to accept that these creatures all of them are not human.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Clearly whether WE think Jon's actions in warning Stannis were justified, it seems that GRRM has made the case that members of the Nights Watch did NOT agree with those actions and have subsequently taken steps to remove him as Lord Commander. :cool4:

They stabbed him after he decided to leave the Wall. It had nothing to do with sending the letter. Given the scum that Jon (mistakenly, I think) left at Castle Black with him after sending most of the competent and loyal men away, I frankly couldn't give less of a shit what they think is right or wrong. You're free to disagree. In any case, your original point that Jon sending the letter was a violation of his oaths was, strictly, incorrect.

Jon mulled the decision. That, to me, makes the point that he knew he shouldn't be offering this, as well.

And if he hadn't done it, the one guy who gave the Night's Watch the time of day would have been betrayed and probably killed. Do you want that? I don't. I'm glad he sent the damn letter.

On the flip side, let's hear it for Stannis for finally listening to others and making use of good counsel from people not named Davos. I'm heartened to see that he can learn to trust again.

Stannis has always listened to counsel. He might not agree with it and he might not act on it, but he at least listens. And seeing as Davos is one of the few men he has who's proved to be honest, up-front and candid, I'm not sure why you think that it's a "bad" thing for Stannis to listen to him.

ETA: What Jory said.

[Lord Varys]

Well, well, you really need to read those damned books again and again to find the really interesting lines.

Look what's foreshadowed here:

'The woods were on the move, creeping toward the castle like a slow green tide. She thought back to a tale she had heard as a child, about the children of the forest and their battles with the First Men, when the greenseers turned the trees to warriors.'

That's from 'The Wayward Bride'. I guess all this crap about Asha being warged can now be discarded. Asha made a connection here. The raven muttering on one hand, and Theon's ramblings about encountering a talking tree. A sign/an intervention from the weirwood tree on the island is her last hope to save her brother. And if it fails, it would be a good clean death.

Now everything is possible. Bran could talk through the tree. Act through it. Even physically intervene to save Bran and kill Stannis, although I don't think that is going to happen. But I can see the tree preventing Stannis from executing Theon. And that alone will have tremendous impact on everybody. Together with the revelation about Bran and Rickon, this will finally set the whole story back on track.

[Ivy Snow]

Is this just my imagination, or I remember it well ( sort of) that Sansa once wished Arya would be like Jeyne or would have a sister like Jeyne? Forgive me if I made a mistake and correct me if I'm wrong.

If I do remember it well, I guess Sansa did get what she wanted lol.

[DurararaFTW]

Does it say, anywhere, in the Night's Watch vows that the men have to be neutral? They may strive for neutrality, given that they have men from so many different regions and families, and for expediency (they couldn't survive a direct challenge from a major house, most likely). But I think that's more of an organic tradition based on political realities. It's certainly not reflected in the vows themselves. When Jon was going to go fight for Robb, his issue wasn't that he was "taking part" in a political affair, it was that he was abandoning his post.

Given that Stannis is the only king thus far to take the threat of the Others seriously and give any real aid to the Wall at all, I'd argue that it's in the Night's Watch's interest and in keeping with their oaths to support him. Their first and foremost purpose is to protect the realms of men, and Stannis is the only king taking that responsibility seriously.

Well, it may not be in his oath, but throughout the entire book Jon very much thinks that staying neutral isn't something optional.

And even if it was, just helping Stannis isn't what he did. According to Ramsey's letter, which he reads to the watch without giving any context. Jon faked Mance Rayder's death, set him loose south of the Wall to save his pre-watch sister and Ramsey dares him to come save Mance, which he does along with his new wildling army.

That's still totally oathbreaking. Unless Jon and the Watch shouldn't see Mance as an oathbreaker either. But again, whatever their oath, clearly everyone, jon included, DOES see Mance as an oathbreaker.

[daenerys snow]

I liked the food supply chapter, it makes it more realistic considering what an overriding concern the foodsituation must be in even a "normal" northern winter. I feel it's important that this chapter showed Jon being a decent commander, thinking about the logistics of running the Watch, in very dificult circumstances. It also gave a nice view of Bowen Marsh, and why he is important for the Watch.

it also showed the concerns of bowen marsh and shows what is most likely his motivation for attacking his lord commander.