[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 2

[Glyn Tarvoke]

I have a guess: they will take Theon to the tree and Theon will take the black rather than be killed. He can swear his NW oath before a heart tree. If you ascribe to the Bloodraven and Bran are trying to save the realms of men theory as I do (I think the folk who believe the COTF and Bloodraven are actually evil have it totally backwards) then they will try to intervene to get some help to the NW and to the Wall. Whatever Theon's many flaws, the NW needs some more people like Theon who are quick witted and can help Jon out.

I thought it pretty clear Bloodraven and Bran were warging the crows and making them say things.

GRMM needs another viewpoint character at the wall. I'm pretty sure GRMM had most of the main storylines plotted out when he started AGOT many years ago. (for example, Hardhome is listed on the original AGOT maps). GRMM's worked through travelogues, giving us a view of not only Westoros and also much of Essos. GRMM mentioned in interviews that the characters will eventually re-connect.

When Asha tells Stannis to kill her brother as Ned Stark would, it seems to me a good play for Asha. GRMM set it up. In ADWD, Asha sees men burning and realizes it is an ugly way to die. She remarks how the sargeant who goaded Suggs into killing him before being burned was clever and resolves to do the same herself if she is to burn. So GRMM already set up Asha's motivations for asking Stannis to send Theon to the tree. Its pretty obvious all the northmen want Theon dead and we can reasonable expect Asha would have heard the many comments asking for her brother's death.

My guess is that they take Theon to the weirwood tree and he asks to join the NW. Maybe Stannis cuts his head. Or maybe Stannis sends Theon and a few other captives to the wall to take the black, along with Massey and his group.

[Jory]

Rickon's return will simply provide a convenient way for Jon to give up his position as lord of Winterfell in order to take up the unwanted duty of assuming the Iron Throne, while knowing that he can hand over Winterfell to a true Stark, the next King in the North.

Uh... why would Jon rule from the Iron Throne if his brother is a King in the North? Why bother with the Iron Throne to begin with?

Stannis hardly existed in book 1. He is not one of the primary heroes of this story. Eddard and Robb did not suffer all they suffered just so that Stannis could come and be the North's savior.

You may not think that, but I do. Stannis was in A Game of Thrones plenty - he's set up as having helped Jon Arryn discover the truth of Joffrey's parentage, and Ned trying to place Stannis on the throne is the entire last third of the book.

... and, I should say, by that logic, Robb was in Book 2 for all of one flashback scene with Catelyn. The King in the North business was hardly even talked about - we mostly saw the war between RenStannis and the Lannisters, and a few scenes at Harrenhall with Roose Bolton.

Robb's will and Rickon's return becomes meaningless if Stannis defeats Ramsay now and takes Winterfell. Once Stannis takes Winterfell then Robb's heir becomes a mere puppet to secure his rule. It loses all of its dramatic impact.

No, it doesn't, because these books aren't about a King in the North, and they haven't been from the beginning.

If instead Stannis dies, and Ramsay remains, bloodied but still holding Winterfell, it sets the scene perfectly for Jon to be proclaimed Robb's heir uniting the forces of the Umbers, Flints, Norreys, Wulls, Manderlys along with the Wildlings and the rest of the North, and ripping Ramsay's guts out as he retakes Winterfell in brutal and bloody triumph.

Jon isn't in much of a condition to do this right now, mate, and if Ramsay winds up being the central villain of Winds of Winter I will literally vomit in my mouth. I have enough one dimensional fantasy villains to last me a lifetime.

[Glyn Tarvoke]

So any thoughts on how it is going to go wrong for Stannis?

I expected things to go wrong again as they had so often. Like when Jon sends off his warnings to Stannis it was my expectation "Great, the letter will get there late." So it was my thought on reading the new Theon chapter that GRMM gave his readers a Christmas present, were things finally go right for the good guys. Course, they could go wrong later but I got the drift that Stannis planned to win his battle and then put out a false tale that he himself was dead.

To kill of the Lannister catspaw Bolton, Stannis needs a ruse to get Bolton out of the castle. Its not too hard to guess at the possibilities.

[Jory]

The sheer fact that Stannis hasn't yet outlined his plan for kicking the asses of the Freys and the Boltons means that we're going to see it, and that means it will probably work. Think back to Tyrion's plan on the Blackwater.

[Tini]

But he couldn't possibly kill off Stannis! The story needs a Baratheon, and since there wont be any new POV's introduced we can assume Roberts bastards are out of the picture.... I think Stannis is luring out Jon so that Manderly HAS to switch sides, he is bound to the Starks and would not refuse the last son of Ned. He let Davos go, so we know he is most definatley not on the side of the Bolton's.

Stannis could not be sure that the letter would actually lure out Jon. And if Stannis was stupid enough to write the letter to trick Jon, Stannis would not secure himself the North by playing this trick. Knowing the Northmen, Stannis would lose both them, and Jon.

[brashcandy]

We don't hear anything about Theon's injuries in the chapter, but from a purely physical standpoint, is he even able to write a letter? I can't remember exactly, but I'm sure Ramsay took a couple fingers, and this might prevent him from holding a quill and actually being legible if it was his writing hand that was maimed.

[Bugger that]

The notion that Stannis had any hand in the letter, feeding Jon lies to trick him into joining the fight, is so completely out of character for him that is just seems absurd to me...

But damn did I love that chapter! Stannis is so bloody awesome in it, love him!!! Please please don't let him be dead, at least not by the hands of a scum like the Bastard of Bolton.

[DragonSpawn]

Theon could write the letter... in fact it almost seems likely - as i am a firm believer that Stannis would not write such a letter to Jon - he likes him too much and he is trying to re-pay his debt to Jon not spit in his face... If Ramsay didn't write it then it has to be Theon surely... either is bad news...

If Ramsey wrote it then Stannis must surely die (he may get resurrected as Ice or Fire) but he will die first... unless some imposter is pretending to be Stannis and is wielding lightbringer around to help with a glamour or summit - but a bit of a stretch...

If Theon wrote it then this is equally disturbing as i don't like Theon and his plans... they always go horribly, horribly wrong... and i don't want Jon involved unless Theon is sacraficed to bring Jon back...

[jon rr stark]

I agree. It seems kind of "dull," but it also reminds me of Martin saying how you never saw, say, Aragorn's taxation policies. A lot of ruling is having to deal with mundane stuff like food inventory, and even that is of critical importance. It's not glamorous, but it is necessary. It showed Jon having to plan, with people's lives in the balance. Jon wasn't resting on his laurels or delegating the work to others. He got to work immediately and did the important stuff himself.

This chapter also showed the importance and ability of the iron bank to change a situation.

The real point I thought was also to emphasis that The wall knows all about winter and what stores are needed to prepare for it. If they are in trouble then this should tell us a lot about other places affected by the war and the problems winter will bring with no chance to grow crops. The war affecting imports from the reach. Winterfell in ruins and all its stores gone or destoyed. But who in the North was preparing well for winter when the rest were at war. Manderely. We saw his preparation with his barges, and he sent two sons but relatively few men to the war. This means he has the forces and the stores and the ability to import from Essos to make him a very powerful player in whatever happens in the North. As Napolean said an army marchs on its stomach.

[jon rr stark]

GRMM needs another viewpoint character at the wall. I'm pretty sure GRMM had most of the main storylines plotted out when he started AGOT many years ago. (for example, Hardhome is listed on the original AGOT maps). GRMM's worked through travelogues, giving us a view of not only Westoros and also much of Essos. GRMM mentioned in interviews that the characters will eventually re-connect.

:agree:

With Jon out of action for a 'while' presumably. There is a need for more than a Melisandre POV on the wall. If the Others are coming there is going to be a lot of action. Whoelse could fill the gap?

[CrypticWeirwood]

No one here was predicting that Theon and Stannis would be brought before a weirwood tree by Bran's army of talking traitorous ravens, or that Stannis would deal with the Karstarks in a quick, efficient manner and then keep all of their men on his side, but both of those things happened. That said, I think Stannis has a way bigger role to play than just dying at the hands of Ramsay or traitorous northmen - and personally, at this stage, I think that if the North is going to unite it's going to be under Stannis. He has not been kept alive for five books for nothing.

I suppose from Stannis’s perspective one might perhaps view the northmen’s election of their own king to be treason to his own position as soi-disant rightful king of the First Men, the Andals, and the Rhoynar, but whatever treason could the ravens possibly have committed?

[bemused]

Re; the letter...But they can make Tybald write the letter anyway.. Theon wouldn't need to write. ( Anyway I think he can , though it might not be pretty. It's been figured out that he still has enough fingers on both hands to draw a bow , if he wasn't too weak. )

But I also like the idea that Ramsay wrote in response to a fake letter he received from Stannis, written by Tybald , along with at least a failed skirmish , and perhaps possession of a certain sword. That would still leave Stannis one last raven that I just bet could make it to the wall. ;)..if he needs to get word there before Tycho's party , which will surely carry some message as well as Jeyne.( For that matter ,if the raven got loose somehow it might just go on it's own.)

I love that Stannis is thinking on his feet. Theons report about the Umbers and their pits probably made him think how the ice on the lakes will be even more dangerous than usual, because it's riddled with old ice fishing holes... and having seen one pit defense, Hosteen the Brain might think it's a good idea not to approach directly over land ( tee-hee)

ETA : I don't think Stannis would hesitate to let go of Lightbringer as part of his plan. He knows it's only an artifice, I'm sure.

[Jory]

I suppose from Stannis’s perspective one might perhaps view the northmen’s election of their own king to be treason to his own position as soi-disant rightful king of the First Men, the Andals, and the Rhoynar, but whatever treason could the ravens possibly have committed?

I just liked the phrase "Bran's army of talking traitorous ravens". ^_^

[Azor Stark]

Could Mance have sent the letter? I agree it would seem out of character for Stannis to do so, but maybe Mance and Theon did so in Winterfell....

[Stannis the Great]

I think that the similarities between Theon's advice to Stannis and the phrases used in the letter purportedly sent by Ramsay is co-incidence and a red herring. Theon had been a prisoner of Ramsay's for a long while and it wouldn't surprise me if Theon has a great working knowledge of Ramsay's mind. He's had to learn how Ramsay thinks in order to spare himself the pain of being tortured when he does something wrong.

[kephv]

Could Mance have sent the letter? I agree it would seem out of character for Stannis to do so, but maybe Mance and Theon did so in Winterfell....

Probably not. Does Mance even know how to read or write? I wouldn't think so. Besides Ramsay, there's really no reason why anyone else sent the letter.

[FanTasy]

After reading that annoying letter again and again, I am inclined to think the letter was send by Ramsay, based on partly false information.

"No, there is truth in it", Jon says when Tormund questions the authenticity of the letter.

Stannis or Manderley can be the obvious suspects to give Ramsay false information.

By sending a raven and/or sending Ramsay Stannis' sword, or a sword that looks like Stannis' sword.

The letter doesn't say that Ramsay killed Stannis or that it is his head that is on a pyke, just that Ramsay has his sword.

[Free Northman]

Hang on, someone just mentioned something very credible. No one has ever wondered why Ramsay demanded his Reek back from Jon, considering that Reek was captured first by by Mors Umber, and then taken to Stannis.

So if Ramsay DID write the letter - which I think is almost certain - then it means he knows of some reason why Theon would be at Castle Black - like the fact that Theon took the black in front of the Heart Tree.

And for Ramsay to know that, it means he must have emerged at least alive, and probably with some measure of victory from his battle with Stannis. Enough to obtain Stannis's sword, to know what happened at the weirwood and to know that Reek and Jeyne Pool are with the Night's Watch.

All of the above could be thanks to some elaborate subterfuge by the Manderlys, but it is far more likely that Ramsay knows it because he won whatever battle took place against Stannis. A battle I believe did not include the Northmen - probably because they weren't satisfied with Theon taking the black, and then promtly deserted Stannis, leaving him to face Ramsay alone - obviously after the Freys had been decimated in he first reckless charge by Hosteen.

Hence the bloody battle - Stannis's 1500 southerners were enough to anihiliate the Freys in his trap, but not enough to defeat Ramsays forces on top of that.

Hence, Ramsay is bloodied, has lost about 2000 men, and has a bunch of leaderless but relatively unschathed northmen running around the north, necessating his recovery of Jeyne Pool to bring them to heel.

Meanwhile, the Manderlys are continuing with their plot and are readying the ground for Rickon's return, which will serve perfectly to prepare the scene for the announcement of Robb's will, and Jon's re-appearance halfway through Winds of Winter. Jon then simply takes the place of Rickon in the plan, but Rickon was required for plot purposes in order to explain the Manderlys planning for a Northern heir before knowing about Jon's availability and Robb's will.

I think there is a darker future for Stannis. Maybe he is wounded, and not dead, and was evactuated by his fleeing loyalists, but he will probably be out of the picture after the battle of the lakes.

[Azor Stark]

This could all be a disinformation campaign by Stannis, we know he has 2 ravens that he could send to Winterfell with any information he wishes to feed Ramsay... and for all we know Davos could be involved here and we know that guy is really really cunning and smart... after re-reading the chapter it seems to me that Stannis could very well be planning to fake his own death in some way... I dont think he'd warn Massey otherwise....he didnt seem like a man who thought he might lose this battle...

[Winterfail]

Just after ADWD was released, I read in one of the many threads about the letter a post that made the most sense to me. I don't remember who said it, but their position was that Ramsay indeed wrote it, but from a feeling of desperation within Winterfell. He has defeated Stannis, but at great cost, and Mance is loose in Winterfell and wreaking havoc (perhaps he has murdered Roose). There is little other reason for someone to demand Val and Mance's son, unless they need leverage over Mance. If Ramsay is stuck there in the snow with a depleted force, and Mance is sneaking around assassinating people in the castle, then demanding those particular hostages make sense. It may also well be that Stannis is not dead, and thus, the demand for Mel and Stannis' family, too.

However, I was struck on my re-read by how many times Mance, glamored as Rattleshirt, refers to Jon as "Bastard" in the chapter in which Jon plots out a strategy for Stannis in exchange for the Wildling fighters. This, in conjunction with Theon's phrase that Ramsay wants his Reek and his bride, plus Stannis' statement that there may be rumors of his death, give me pause, but still, it seems to make the most sense for Ramsay to have written the letter, and for at least most of it to be true.

i want it to be a lie, because I want vengeance for the Starks, and if I can't have it, I at least want not to be teased with the prospect only to have it rubbed in my face some more, but what I want surely counts for nothing. :P

ETA: I also like what Free Northman added a couple of posts above