[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 2

[RobMRobM]

I don't have time to check all posts on this LENGTHY thread but back in the early pages someone pointed out that there has been discussion on old posts about the potential for Bran to influence events in the past. I believe that to be so, both based on the whispers to Ned and one big other fact in the books.

Think back to Bran's contact with Jon Snow in ACOK. Bran showed skills (finding Jon, growing an imaginary weirwood, opening up Jon's third eye) far beyond what newbie warg Bran should have been able to do. The skill set seems to be consistent with post ADWD Bran, who drank the tree blood and been training with Bloodraven, rather ACOK Bran. This would imply that Bran can influence the past and probably did so in that case (likely followed by a reaming from Bloodraven about the dangers associated with what he did so we don't see more evidence of future Bran in the story to date).

Rob

[CrypticWeirwood]

Think back to Bran's contact with Jon Snow in ACOK. Bran showed skills (finding Jon, growing an imaginary weirwood, opening up Jon's third eye) far beyond what newbie warg Bran should have been able to do. The skill set seems to be consistent with post ADWD Bran, who drank the tree blood and been training with Bloodraven, rather ACOK Bran. This would imply that Bran can influence the past and probably did so in that case (likely followed by a reaming from Bloodraven about the dangers associated with what he did so we don't see more evidence of future Bran in the story to date).

Hm, did we ever get that from Bran’s point of view? If not, then perhaps it hasn’t yet happened in his timeline then. Intriguing!

[Candor]

Who would have a motive to want either "Arya" or Jeyne dead, and have the means to hire the FM?

.... Littlefinger? :eek:

He's got money, Braavos connections, and a reason to want to get rid of her (so he can make "Alayne's" claim stronger). He won't tell his daughter of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has some feelers out making sure that none of her sibligns are going to magically appear and ruin his plans.

[bogdevil]

The whole "take no sides" thing is a tradition, but it's not "the law" in an ironclad sense. Jon swore to hold no lands, he swore to defend the realm of men, but he never swore to roll over and die whenever some idiot from said realm of men threatened the Watch as an institution and him personally.

I think it's interesting that, when Horpe and Stannis are discussing how to "question" the Karstark men, Horpe offers to question them "sharply", the same torture euphemism the Shavepate used with Dany.

Crowfood Umber wears the pelt of a giant snow bear. There's been a lot of speculation on other threads that Tormund might have been the one to carry off Crowfood's daughter, and Tormund is called "Husband to bears". The bear imagery might be another hint at a connection between the two men. For that matter, it might be a hint that the Mormonts didn't just "happen" to be in position to join up with Stannis's host (since if they'd wanted to declare for him, they were certainly capable of doing that), but are plotting secretly with the Umbers.

During Jon's election, the Watchmen recognized Mormont's raven because ordinary ravens only know a few words, if any; Mormont's raven started calling out for snow, Slynt sneered that Sam had taught all of Castle Black's ravens that word, and it wasn't until the raven started saying "kettle" and "corn" that it was identified as Mormont's raven. So having seen all this, I will call foul if nobody thinks it's odd how incredibly verbose these two ravens are. The ravens here say "yet", "tree", "not long", "knows", "knows me", and "Theon"., and Maester Tybald says that these two are not notably clever ravens. I guess I can understand if Stannis is not up on his raven knowledge, but if they keep on like this and, say the maester doesn't think it's odd, I will find that odd.

also, what of the "law" of guest rights. All of these hostages are guests of the NW, it would not be very hospitable of the NW to hand them over to a known sociopath. Also, the NW could argue that defending the hostages is part of "defending the realms of men". The only truly neutral stance the NW could have taken would be to respond to the letter telling Ramsay Snow that he is welcome to come take the hostages without the NW interfering (other than warning them that he is coming), but that the NW would not cooperate and send them to him.

[LordBloodraven]

Hm, did we ever get that from Bran’s point of view? If not, then perhaps it hasn’t yet happened in his timeline then. Intriguing!

I think it's one of Jon's dreams in ACOK somewhere in the Frostfangs when a weirwood with Bran's face tells him to open his third eye

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Firstly, is anyone more awesome than the Umbers? Mors Crowfood - huge and powerful in his polar bear furs - only has a few hundred green boys outside Winterfell, but he GRINS in anticipation when he sees Roose (with his 6000 hardened warriors) opening the main gate to engage him in battle? These guys are awesome bannermen to have. Ferocious does not begin to describe them Umbers.

How to solve this? I believe the fact that reckless, dumb and angry Hosteen is leading the Freys hints at their sudden and terrible demise. They will be caught in Stannis's trap. I believe the Manderlys will hang back. But Ramsay will be hard on the heels of the Freys, and he will hit Stannis with a second wave of attack.

Oh yeah, I loves me a big man with a bearskin. Ahem, yes. I'm thinking that the Umbers awesomeness extends to them hiding some prime fighting men in the snow, too.

My guess is that they take Theon to the weirwood tree and he asks to join the NW. Maybe Stannis cuts his head. Or maybe Stannis sends Theon and a few other captives to the wall to take the black, along with Massey and his group.

Oh poor Theon. Taking the black would kill him, assuming that there's any black to take after Jon's assassination and the ensuing shitstorm.

[Poser]

Hm, did we ever get that from Bran’s point of view? If not, then perhaps it hasn’t yet happened in his timeline then. Intriguing!

We see Bran remembering doing such a thing a few chapters after it occurs.

[Fire Eater]

I wonder if Asha will let it slip to Stannis about how Euron told the ironmen about Dany's dragons?

Stannis might dismiss it, otherwise it could lead to doubts about what Mel said, plus how will he react when he finds that Mel deceived him by saving Mance?

[kephv]

I wonder if Asha will let it slip to Stannis about how Euron told the ironmen about Dany's dragons?

Stannis might dismiss it, otherwise it could lead to doubts about what Mel said, plus how will he react when he finds that Mel deceived him by saving Mance?

No deception. He knows about Mance.

[LordBloodraven]

No deception. He knows about Mance.

Sure?

[Aluminum Link]

What if the hooded man gave word that davos is back with ricton? So this gives Mandley a reason to start acting up and starting shit in Winterfell. We really have no idea how much time has passed sents davos was sent away.

You should check out of the Hooded Man threads (two of them). One theory is that the HM is in fact Davos come to deliver exactly that message himself. Or Robett Glover delivering it on his behalf.

In that thread it was determined that from the end of the last Davos chapter to the time Theon encounters the HM is about 3-4 months.

[Ghost714]

No deception. He knows about Mance.

I think it is possible that Stannis knows about Mance being alive, but is there any hard evidence to support that as fact??? Or is it just educated speculation??? If I remember right in ADwD, when we first learn about Mance being Rattleshirt, I got a strong feeling Mel kept that fact from Stannis.

We see that Stannis did in fact respect Mance, but many people believe it would be extremely out of character for Stannis to let Mance live. They believe this because Stannis was bound by Justice to kill Mance, for being an Oath-breaker. So even if Stannis wanted to, he could not let Mance live.

Mel saw the potential In Mance and saved him. A lot of people believe that Mel keeping this from Stannis, is a sign that she is starting to realize he is not the true AA.

Her helping Jon, by giving him a way to "save his sister" could be a sign that she is trying to get on the good side, of the real AA.

I do believe that Stannis is cool and could make a good King and stuff, but he is not AA. My belief is that Mel kept the fact of Mance being alive, to her self (meaning Stannis didn't know).

Another fun fact, Mel didn't go with Stannis when he left the Wall, she stayed to be with Jon. (because she has doubts that Stannis is AA, and she is starting to see its Jon)

We know Mel has been trying very hard to get close to Jon. (like she first did with Stannis when she believed he was AA) she has also expressed to Jon that "he will need" her. Why would she do all this??? Hmmmmm because Jon is AA.

(Not to mention all the stuff pointing to Jon being AA, that has nothing to do with Mel.)

[kephv]

I think it is possible that Stannis knows about Mance being alive, but is there any hard evidence to support that as fact??? Or is it just educated speculation??? If I remember right in ADwD, when we first learn about Mance being Rattleshirt, I got a strong feeling Mel kept that fact from Stannis.

In Mel's chapter she mentions his grace Stannis is not one to go against the law, but as Jon pointed out, all laws end at the wall. This implies that Stannis knew, and went ahead with it. Stannis needed him to burn to show the wildings he was serious (and he's not one to go against the law), but he was also infinitely more useful to them alive, so Stannis heeded Jon's wisdom and got the best of both.

[cybroleach]

I'm rather intrigued by the notion that Stannis can obtain 20 000 sellswords with relative ease now that he has the backing of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

This begs the question: If Stannis can obtain 20 000 soldiers by just sitting in some hidden base and waiting for them to arrive, why go to all the trouble and considerable risk of trying to win over the North, if it presumably can only offer him 10 000 soldiers at best, if the common view on this board is the one to go by?

Heck, if Stannis can get 20 000 sellswords so easily, why not spend a bit more borrowed money and just get 30 000?

The North's paltry remaining forces are really not worth all the effort, in that context. And yet to Stannis winning over the Northern Lords appears to be vital to his cause.

To me this makes it pretty clear that in Stannis's view, a united North can yield considerably more than 10 000 soldiers, and probably mroe along the lines of the 20 000 - 30 000 that he hopes to hire in Braavos.

In short, if the entire North can only yield about 10 000 men, then Stannis wouldn't be wasting his time, and risking his entire Throne trying to win it to his cause so desperately.

Nope, the North still has a lot more to offer. Heck, Stannis tells Massey to not even bother returning with less than 20 000 men, so why would he risk all to win over less than 10 000 Northmen to his cause?

It seems clear. The North has a lot of men yet, and Stannis needs them to win his throne.

Yes GRRM stated awhile back the North cold field another 20, 000 men with some green boys and greybeards. Not sure where you're getting 10,000.

Regardless 10,000 men is massive force to someone with a bare 1,500 as Stannis had until his push for the North. Unifying the North is key because as with the Stark kings it's so easily defended from the south. Moat Callin can defend 20x its guards. Furthermore with 10,000 men he can serously defend the Wall from the Others his true enemy.

And finally 20,000 sellsword while great in numbers and all are unreliable, given to breaking and betrayl. An army of Lords, knights and their men can likely beat 2x their number.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Yes GRRM stated awhile back the North cold field another 20, 000 men with some green boys and greybeards. Not sure where you're getting 10,000.

Regardless 10,000 men is massive force to someone with a bare 1,500 as Stannis had until his push for the North. Unifying the North is key because as with the Stark kings it's so easily defended from the south. Moat Callin can defend 20x its guards. Furthermore with 10,000 men he can serously defend the Wall from the Others his true enemy.

And finally 20,000 sellsword while great in numbers and all are unreliable, given to breaking and betrayl. An army of Lords, knights and their men can likely beat 2x their number.

Would you have the source available where GRRM says the North can still field 20k?

I for one do not think that Stannis will find many sellswords available given the situation in Meereen. This might be the reason why the iron bank gave Stannis unlimited financial backing. But I could be wrong. I still think a unified North is the best hope for Stannis.

[Ghost714]

Yeah the North has way more than 10,000 soldiers to offer Stannis.

In ADwD dont we learn Wyman Manderly alone has like 10,000 well trained armored knights/men-at-arms? Not to mention all the potential soldiers that crew his pretty large Navy? The Lannisters of Casterly Rock may have the gold, but the Manderly's of White Harbor have the silver. And Wyman has been puting that silver to good use, making White Harbor very powerful.

For Manderly's support alone, I would say its worth it for Stannis to to endure the trouble of gaining the North. Then there is of course the, what is it... 3 to 4 thousand Northmen already with Stannis. Not to mention, gods know how many men Howland Reed can offer with the support of Greywater Watch. So I think it's very safe to say the North has more than 10,000 to offer Stannis, and that's with me only naming a few of many potential supporters, should Stannis win over the North.

Hell Skaggos may even have some fighting men to offer. I know we don't know much about Skaggos, but if you look at the map, Skaggos is easily bigger than the Iron Islands. The Iron Islands surprisingly have a lot of fighting men, in proportion to the land mass the live on. So who's to say Skaggos couldn't at least offer 5,000 men?? That is assuming you can convince them to fight for you.

Just a few thoughts.

[DurararaFTW]

It most surely isn't optional with Stannis around, and the Lannisters and Boltons not appreciating that one bit. It is Jon's fault that he wasn't delusional about his "paper shield" actually working?

You make it sound like siding with Stannis wasn't the logical, moral and right decision, for the Watch and for Jon himself? What, should Jon have thrown himself and the Watch on father and son Bolton, asking him to free the Wall from the pretender and religious zealot Stannis? Or pretend the Watch didn't have to choose, even though it was actually housing and supplying Stannis, his family and his forces? You call that neutral?

I call putting together an army to aid him in his war and leading it prsonally going a bit out of your way to get involved.

And if it isn't oathbreaking then WHY DID JON SAY GOING WITH HIM WOULD BE BREAKING YOUR OATH?????

So Ramsay's letter is the truth ™ now?

According to the books, Melisandre faked Mance's death without Jon and Stannis knowing, and she gave him his mission. If you want to shoot Jon for not resisting when she told him, well go ahead.

NO, it isn't truth! IT'S JUST THE ONLY SIDE OF STORY JON IS WILLING TO SHARE! THAT'S what I blame him for. He could've said, "none of this is true but h needs to be dealt" or "Mance wasn't let loose by my orders" but no, he told everybody what Ramsey had to say and nothing in his own defense. And then was intending to depart south.

Also, Ramsay did not dare him to come save Mance. He told Jon he was going to come to the Wall and cut his heart out, unless he handed over Melisandre, Selyse, Shireen, "Arya", Val and Theon.

YES IT DOES.

"If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him."

That's what it says, jeez. Which is exactly what Jon and his wildlings compatriots did.

Yes GRRM stated awhile back the North cold field another 20, 000 men with some green boys and greybeards. Not sure where you're getting 10,000.

Regardless 10,000 men is massive force to someone with a bare 1,500 as Stannis had until his push for the North. Unifying the North is key because as with the Stark kings it's so easily defended from the south. Moat Callin can defend 20x its guards. Furthermore with 10,000 men he can serously defend the Wall from the Others his true enemy.

And finally 20,000 sellsword while great in numbers and all are unreliable, given to breaking and betrayl. An army of Lords, knights and their men can likely beat 2x their number.

Thoe greybeards and green boys would leave their wives and mothers utterly undefended and moreover, would deprive the North of it's farmers and hunters, before the long Winter. The Sellswords are trained men with sword and armor and cavalry that can actually afford to go south with him. There is no comparison.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

I can't see the Northern lords running off to another southern campaign after the War of Five Kings, the Red Wedding, and the Ironborn invasion. They need time to regroup, restock, and in many cases, get their hostages back. And of course there the difficulties of dealing with Winter. The weather seems bad enough to bring everything to a standstill.

[Ser Arthyr Dracenstein]

Have any of the Essos mercenary companies any experience with winter, let alone north Westerosi winters? I think Essos isn't as exposed to the Long Winters as Westeros.

They may be some exiles who know, but I doubt many Essos mercenaries do. I can see them arriving and dying in droves to exposure.

[Chise]

And of course there the difficulties of dealing with Winter. The weather seems bad enough to bring everything to a standstill.

so.. Winter is gonna be GRRM's excuse to finally have that flash-forward-5-years thing, yeah?

Everyone will get bundled up indoors, whoever is still alive 5 years later crawls out and resumes hostilities

will Essos mercs marching with Stannis be like French marching on Moscow in winter? 'cause that'd be all sorts of hilarious, not gonna lie