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The Iron Bank and the mockingbird


SpaceChampion

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This is nonsense, frankly. He got his reputation from Storm's End AND smashing the Greyjoy fleet (via a plan of his own devising). He also has had quite a bit of success in the North, relatively speaking (meaning it looked bad for him but his star is on the rise again, bigtime).

Also the 1/10th comment is blatantly false. Tywin's army showed up with all the power of Highgarden, with fake Renly at the head, and that's when they lost. Up to that point Stannis was winning, despite the wildfire and other factors.

Success in the north? He tried to kill himself and the renments of his army by going after the Deadfort before Jon talked him out of it. Then he tried to kill the rest of his army by marching them in winter with no supplies instead of staying in deepwood mote.

He was subordinate to Robert, Jon Aryn and probably Ned Stark and Twin Lanister during the Greyjoy Rebellion, who knows what he is actually responsible for. I don't recall anything describing the smashing of the fleet except in a Cersei chapter where she says Robert did that. Maybe, it never happened and Stanis is lying about it and that is why the Iron Men can have a thousand manned ships a mere 10 years later.

As for kingslanding, he was attacking 1/10 or less of the force he had, and he didn't get it done in time and allowed Tywin to get there and change the odds. There is nothing in any of his chapters that makes him look competent.

Actually, we do know the level of debt, because it was in AGoT and AFfC:

"We owe Lord Tywin some three million dragons at present, what matter another hundred thousand?”

Ned was stunned. “Are you claiming that the Crown is three million gold pieces in debt?”

“The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I’ve had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger.”

It seems to me we owe the Faith some nine hundred thousand dragons.”

“Nine hundred thousand six hundred and seventy-four dragons. Gold that could feed the hungry and rebuild a thousand septs.”

That leaves 2 million divided between the rest of the people mentioned. And it appears those guys have started refusing more loans from the comment he makes about having to find a new lender. The debt to the Iron Bank is maybe 1-1.5 million dragons. Do you think you could buy the throne for that amount of money or any amount of money? Why didn't Tywin Lanister do it before there was even a rebellion if you could, or why hasn't Martell done it all these years he has sat sulking about the death of his sister and loss of his house on the throne?

I don't know what the economics of buying, moving and feeding 50,000 mercaneries are, but I am guessing it is way more than the Iron Bank was actually owed. Their williness to back Stannis isn't the the thing I find most absurd though. I think the existance of that many mercaneries for hire is absurd. I think sending one Knight to travel around and contract that many people is absurd. I think the transportation of that many people if he does is absurd. I think feeding them in westeros in winter is absurd. So, yeah, thinking that money can buy Stannis the throne and a blank check to recover a small loss compared to what is needed for conquest is ridiculous.

The Golden Company is the most powerful mercanary company, but it is composed of ex-compatriots that brought entire armies and stayed there and it has a reason to continually bolster their numbers because their goal is conquest of their homeland. It makes sense for them to have the 10,000 men I suppose, but the second sons and stormcrows, which seem to be famous in their own rights number around 500 men which seems more typical of a mercenary company. Basically, he has has to go around and find and contract 100 mercenary groups to get the numbers he would need.

Manderly might join Stannis and Dorne isn't really with the Crown, but that agent and the Iron Bank can't know that at the time of the agreement. We only know that because we were privy to conversations they had about their secret plans. From the Iron Bank and Stannis' perspective, he has his 5000 troops going up against 10,000 Bolton men, and then another 100,000 or so in the south. Guess I am the only person that has a problem with it though, so whatever.

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If the Iron Bank thinks Stannis can win, that kinda tells us that he does have a real chance, especially with their money. They aren't stupid, they know he's going to use that money to hire sellwords. If there weren't enough sellswords to be had, the IB probably knows that as well.

You're basically saying this concept is stupid because you know more than you do. You don't know the level of debt, nor the level of cost to hire a sellsword army etc. These are all hazy details. We should assume it makes sense because *intelligent characters in the books think it makes sense*. If Stannis starts to win, lords will switch sides. This has already happened. Manderly wants to join Stannis, and that's huge. The North for the most part would love to depose the Boltons so many other northern lords may yet change sides. And what if Stannis restores Rickon to Winterfell? Oh my the North would really be on his side then, (unless they somehow go back to the whole Stark King in the North business).

The IB doesn't know Rickon and Bran are alive. From where they are sitting, Stannis is actually in very good shape, assuming he has their support, which counts for a TON.

To be fair you may be right in that it's ridiculous, but I don't see how such a judgement could be made with such incomplete information on the financials and other things.

I for one don't think it's a "waist of pages". I love how complicated GRRM has made these books. That's what makes them so fun to discuss at such great lengths. The whole concept of the Iron Bank is awesome to me. And I love the intercut detail on how things are made possible in these books. Instead of using the Iron Bank of Braavo's, as a way for GRRM to bring Stannis back in the game, GRRM could have said..... And then Davos and Rickon showed up, with a 40,000 man army from Skaggos, all riding on Unicorns.....that would be some what cool, but that's all it would be is cool. It would not be the amazingness that is GRRM's writing.

Not to mention the Iron Bank of Braavos, could be much bigger than just being a way for Stannis to become a major player again. I was just trying to come up with an example of why GRRM might have put the Iron Bank in the story.

We simply don't know enough about the Iron Bank, to say it a "waiste of pages". But even given what we do know about the Iron Bank, I do not think it's a waiste.

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I see Davos and Rickon showing up with 40,000 canibals from Skaggos equally likely as this turn of events. He is recreating his world with either scenario, well possibly not with Skaggos.

If GRRM needed or wanted Stannis to get back in the game, I wish it had been through alliance with the wildlings and Manderly. The wildlings were there and have a large force still largely unaccounted for that needs to conquer new lands further south to escape the Others and White Harbor was still untouched from the war.

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A thousand ships? The Iron Fleet was only a hundred ships, as of ADWD.

100 ships were in the Iron Fleet sent with Victarion, there are those hundreds of ships invading High Garden at the same time that were counted as 1000 when we see them mentioned in the council. It was a joke anyway, because I think that number was pretty silly, too, since I do think most of their ships would have been destroyed during the Grejoy Rebellion and the Iron Isles would not have had the infrastructure to rebuild by this point. It isn't in text what actually happened to them though and who's idea it was. Stannis probably did have a big part because he built the fleet and was probably still in control of it. He was taking orders from people(he calls himself dutiful to Robert and always obeyed him) so who knows who planned what.

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It is not possible for the Iron Fleet not to have been overcome during Balon's rebellion. Balon Grejoy would have refused to give up his own crown had the Battle of Fair Isle not occurred. Fair Isle is where Victarion was ensared in the trap. Stannis and Paxter Redwyne, not Eddard or Tywin, engaged in the main fleet combat against the Greyjoys. Robert landed on the Iron Isles but does not seem to have directly commanded the Iron Throne's fleets in this conflict.

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I see Davos and Rickon showing up with 40,000 canibals from Skaggos equally likely as this turn of events. He is recreating his world with either scenario, well possibly not with Skaggos.

If GRRM needed or wanted Stannis to get back in the game, I wish it had been through alliance with the wildlings and Manderly. The wildlings were there and have a large force still largely unaccounted for that needs to conquer new lands further south to escape the Others and White Harbor was still untouched from the war.

I still believe Stannis will join with Manderly, and if they beat the Boltons, Stannis may get the whole North, but that might not be enough. So maybe that's why there is a need for the Iron Bank still. Now that the North isn't at full strength anyway.

But the Wildlings would not have been enough. They are not disciplined enough for what Stannis would need them for, and their weapons are to inferior. Plus the Wildlings are needed at the Wall. They believe in fighting against the Others, so they will be more disciplined, then had they been marching with Stannis. Because they wouldn't really believe in fighting for Stannis, but again they believe in fighting the Others. Not to mention it requires much less battle knowledge to hold the Wall, in comparrison to the battle knowledge they would need to know to reallyhelp out in any way.

So that's why I think GRRM couldn't just use the Wildlings and Manderly, to make Stannis a major player again .

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Sansa has no claims through Lysa. No legal claims. She might have had a claim if Lysa had inherited, and declared her the heir. But Lysa didn't inherit, Sweetrobin did. Lysa was just his guardian. If Sweetrobin dies, Harry will inherit next. This is also made clear, it is why Harry is Harry the Heir. If Harry dies after he becomes Lord of the Vale, it would be his next of kin who inherit. He has two bastard children. Bastards don't inherit usually - unless there are no legitimate heirs left. WHich might very well be the case in the case of the Arryn family. Sansa doesn't come into this anywhere unless she tries to claim the Vale by force.

But maybe I'm overlooking something. When the question of the Robb's heir came up, Catelyn Tull mentioned a distant cousin, some distant relation of the same lady who raised Harry the Heir. I would not be surprised if Harry the Heir to the Vale turned out to be the missing Stark heir. In that case, Sansa could claim to be his heir if he dies after inheriting the Vale. Littlefinger never told her why Harry was called Harry the Heir, she deduced that he is Sweetrobin's heir by herself. He might very well know if Harry has Stark blood, and just decided that Sansa didn't need to know.

I agree Sansa has no way to make a claim except by marriage and producing an heir like Lysa. What Cat says is that Robbs great grandfather had a sister who married into a lesser branch of house Arryn and had three daughters. One married a Waynewood, one a Templeton, and the other she wasn't sure about maybe a Corbaray. Some people believe Lady Anya Waynewood, Harrys guardian, has Stark blood. The Hardings are a knightly family sworn to house Waynewood, don't think Harry has any Stark blood.Ser Templeton the knight of Nine-Stars is another candidate for being related to the Starks. The point I was trying to make in my first post was that Harrys the hiers mother had an older sister who was abducted by the burned men, one of the mountian clans of the moon,which is nominally a part of the Vale. We don't know what happened to her but if she had a child with one of her abductors, as the elder sister, her child under Westerosi law would have a better claim than Harrold. So it is possible that when Robert Arryn dies the mountian clans might try to make a claim, probaly wont go over well with the Vale. They see the clans as savages and since the girl was taken by force the child/hier will be seen as illegitimate.

We also can't take Littlefingers boasting at face value. By his own admission his plans have been disrupted by Cerseis incompetence.Winterfell is not his to give,the Vale and the eyrie is not his to give, Harry is not his to give and niether is Sansa. He is talking to a 13 year old girl he is trying to seduce. We can't assume Sansa will want to marry Harry or that Harry will want to marry her, remember he has to give his consent. Plus Sansa is all ready married as Sansa Lannister the clans might see her as a potential ally some of them(Chella,Timmet) might recognize her. Stannis has a niece there as well, Maya Stone. Sansa and Maya depending on what happens, could turn the situation for King Stannis who by this time might have restored the Starks to Winterfell.Nor is it clear what Littlefingers intentions are at this point, the Vale is nuetral but making remittances to Kings Landing. all though it unlikely it is possible tha LF could support Stannis.

The other gentleman who implied that Harrys aunt could have been abducted by Varys is probaly wrong, happenend at least 5-10 years before the fall of King Aerys.

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That leaves 2 million divided between the rest of the people mentioned. And it appears those guys have started refusing more loans from the comment he makes about having to find a new lender. The debt to the Iron Bank is maybe 1-1.5 million dragons. Do you think you could buy the throne for that amount of money or any amount of money? Why didn't Tywin Lanister do it before there was even a rebellion if you could, or why hasn't Martell done it all these years he has sat sulking about the death of his sister and loss of his house on the throne?

I don't really see your point/problem. Before the rebellion, Tywin didn't need to "buy" the throne, because he already virtually owned it, with his daughter as the queen and his grandson as the future ruler.

During the rebellion, how would Tywin have "bought" the throne? Do you really think that he could have said "alright, I disclaim from the debt the crown owns me, if in turn, people accept that I determine the bearer of said crown"? Really, do you think that would have made Renly, Stannis or Robb - not to mention Balon - change their minds? So he had to do it by brute force, e.g. fighting, for which he couldn't use the assets he owned from lending to the crown as payment. At least I certainly don't see a mercenary saying "oh yeah, usually I take a gold dragon, but you can just give me this piece of paper which is a claim for gold against the king of westeros as payment instead". So, frankly, he couldn't do anything practical right away with that debt. So he supplied an army with "new" gold. And see what happened - Tywin did win! If not for Tyrion killing him, he could have stabilizied the whole situation. And he certainly spent less than those three million in achieving it (although there's no explicit textual evidence).

So yes, money spent in soldiers did secure the throne for Tywin/the Lannisters, and it can do just the same again.

I think you may misunderstand a very basic thing here. The case of property rights is a very weak one when there is no higher power to enforce. Of course, in a "proper" modern state with safe rule of law etc., if some body owes to another, then the lender has some claims on the debtor, and if the latter one fails to oblige, the state will take action and enforce the claim. But even today, when a state refuses to pay, what do you really want to do? Ask the UN to invade? Of course, in that case, short- to mid-term effects will be that speculators will become cautious with future investments, at least for a while (that's quite exactly what happened with Argentina a decade ago), but if the state refuses to pay (and btw, this also applies in the case of state debt toward its own population), there isn't much you can do really. And all that is even worse for the lender, of course, in Westeros, or the world of ice and fire in general, because you don't have an established "moral" or "norm" code which would provide everybody with the feeling that this is a no-go really. So the bank has but one option: enforce their contracts by force. Voilà, that's what they do.

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Before the rebellion when he is pissed off at Aerys and has millions of gold at his disposal. My point is that winning the throne isn't a problem that can be resolved just by money, and that is what we are supposed to believe now. There isn't really anything I don't understand about the situation except where did all the mercenary companies for hire come from and where did the ability to move them around so easily come from as well.

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I see Davos and Rickon showing up with 40,000 canibals from Skaggos equally likely as this turn of events. He is recreating his world with either scenario, well possibly not with Skaggos.

If GRRM needed or wanted Stannis to get back in the game, I wish it had been through alliance with the wildlings and Manderly. The wildlings were there and have a large force still largely unaccounted for that needs to conquer new lands further south to escape the Others and White Harbor was still untouched from the war.

Oh, I just had this vision as the Cannibals of Skaggos as a division made to survive winter, and have the ability to consume ice zombies before they animate fully!

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100 ships were in the Iron Fleet sent with Victarion, there are those hundreds of ships invading High Garden at the same time that were counted as 1000 when we see them mentioned in the council. It was a joke anyway, because I think that number was pretty silly, too, since I do think most of their ships would have been destroyed during the Grejoy Rebellion and the Iron Isles would not have had the infrastructure to rebuild by this point. It isn't in text what actually happened to them though and who's idea it was. Stannis probably did have a big part because he built the fleet and was probably still in control of it. He was taking orders from people(he calls himself dutiful to Robert and always obeyed him) so who knows who planned what.

It does seem silly but you have a period of 11-12 years before this where it was spring or summer, trees would grow much more quickly and all year long without a need to go dormant, so there was probaly an abundance of wood by the end of summer. We also have to assume most of the remaining ships are smaller longships carrying 20-30 men, still it is hard to believe that they could have 1,000 ships with what 50,000 men manning them.

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Before the rebellion when he is pissed off at Aerys and has millions of gold at his disposal. My point is that winning the throne isn't a problem that can be resolved just by money, and that is what we are supposed to believe now. There isn't really anything I don't understand about the situation except where did all the mercenary companies for hire come from and where did the ability to move them around so easily come from as well.

Before the rebellion he had millions of gold at his disposal but no backing among the lords. He could have invested his money in the rebellion but it would not have bought him the crown. Robert Baratheon could not be bought, he belonged to Jon Arryn. Tywin might have gotten rid of Aerys by spending his money - and all it would have bought him would have been the name Kingslayer. He lacked a claim on the throne.

Tywin later had it through his daughter and grandson. Stannis has it, too. The claim alone is not enough, as Viserys' example shows. But a claim backed by money is powerful. Gold makes the claimant attractive to mercenaries, enabling a show of strength that in turn enables allliances with the lords who would never support a hopeless cause.

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There isn't really anything I don't understand about the situation except where did all the mercenary companies for hire come from and where did the ability to move them around so easily come from as well.

I really can't understand, why your unable to understand where all the Sellswords and Sellssails will come from. At Slavers Bay, there are a few thousand Sellswords that we know of, second Sons, Stormcrows, Windblown, etc.

Then we know of the golden company wich is 10,000 strong. There may not be enough Sellswords for Stannis to get 20,000, but when Stannis sends Justin Massey to get them, Stannis doesn't know that so many of them are already under contract, or "occupied" at this time. So again Stannis may not be able to get the full 20,000. But that doesn't mean there isn't 20,000 Or more in existence. For all we know Braavos alone could have 5,000 sellsword's in it, and Braavos is just one of the 9 free citys. There are so many places in Essos that we don't know much about, so who's to say it isn't possible?

As far as the ships to transport them, the Golden Company had no trouble getting shipped to Westeros, and that's half of the 20,000.

I think it's very evident that there are a lot of ships in this world. Justin Massey is going to Braavos, and they are known for How big there Navy is..... All of this is really 2+2=4. Given what we know, it's not hard to fill in the possibilitys. We have never read about seeing the army of Dorne, does that mean it doesn't exist?? No we know it exists, because people talk about it so it must exist. Same goes for the Sellswords, Stannis wouldn't say go get me 20,000 Sellswords if they didn't exist, same goes for a way to transport them.

So again I can't fathom why you can't understand this.

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Of course you can't just buy the throne , but you can buy the wherewithal to mount your campaign , in the meantime hoping to persuade others to your cause. Maybe not all of what you want is available , maybe you win more ..or fewer supporters than you hope..then you adjust your plan. Everything is fluid at this point anyway , Stannis can't even be sure of what his future opposition will be. Numbers of anything may not be as reported..the CoTF were reported to be no more early in the series.

George warns us repeatedly to beware the unreliable narrator. We don't know exactly where he's going with the story. But we know it's his story , therefore , he can't be wrong. But he can, and will, and delights in misleading us. ( Bless him )

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I think Stannis sending his knight to Bravossi to hire sellswords is the way GRRM returns Arya to the North. I personally was hoping for her to meet up with Marwyn and make friends with Dany so she could warg a dragon and fly back home in style. It could still happen. Tyrion has seemed destined to meet up with Dany in Mereene but what if it's not meant to be. What if his sellsword company signs on with Stannis?

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The Golden Company isn't a typical mercenary company which I gave my thought about above. The stormcrows and second sons seem like what is more common, both of those companies seem to have a storied history and are somewhat famous and they consist of 500-1500 men. So, you are talking about traveling around the world to find, contract and ship 50-100 mercenary companies to even make Stannis competitive.

I think the ease of which the Golden Company moved their 10,000 men and their Elephants with medieval vessels is pretty absurd too, but at least they were blown of course had losses etc. The same issues will arise for all the people they hire, which will no doubt be staggered. His knight won't even know where to send people as he hires them. I guess send everyone to east watch in winter seas and then they can make their way to Stannis. There is turmoil and hence work all over the free cities because of Dany that is money on hand without a risky voyage to a strange continent. It is a huge endeavor if it could be done that would take years of just traveling. Maybe it is just a case of best laid plans, and nothing will come of it.

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The Golden Company isn't a typical mercenary company which I gave my thought about above. The stormcrows and second sons seem like what is more common, both of those companies seem to have a storied history and are somewhat famous and they consist of 500-1500 men. So, you are talking about traveling around the world to find, contract and ship 50-100 mercenary companies to even make Stannis competitive.

I think the ease of which the Golden Company moved their 10,000 men and their Elephants with medieval vessels is pretty absurd too, but at least they were blown of course had losses etc. The same issues will arise for all the people they hire, which will no doubt be staggered. His knight won't even know where to send people as he hires them. I guess send everyone to east watch in winter seas and then they can make their way to Stannis. There is turmoil and hence work all over the free cities because of Dany that is money on hand without a risky voyage to a strange continent. It is a huge endeavor if it could be done that would take years of just traveling. Maybe it is just a case of best laid plans, and nothing will come of it.

Yeah I'm not saying Stannis will get his 20,000 Sellswords. I'm saying given what we do know, it could be possible. And again Stannis doesn't know that so many Sellswords are already occupied/under contract, when he sends Massey to get them. But as far as Justin Massey getting the Sellswords, GRRM could make most of that "off page", like he did with the Golden Company getting to Westeros.

Your right, that it would take a long time for Justin Massey to do this. But like many people have pointed out, GRRM could mean for Massey to never get the Sellswords, but he put that in there to make something else happen. That's very probable. But I don't think GRRM would put that in the book, if it could not happen. So I'm sure if GRRM does want it to happen, then he can make a way to logically write it into the story.

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The Golden Company isn't a typical mercenary company which I gave my thought about above. The stormcrows and second sons seem like what is more common, both of those companies seem to have a storied history and are somewhat famous and they consist of 500-1500 men. So, you are talking about traveling around the world to find, contract and ship 50-100 mercenary companies to even make Stannis competitive.

I think the ease of which the Golden Company moved their 10,000 men and their Elephants with medieval vessels is pretty absurd too, but at least they were blown of course had losses etc. The same issues will arise for all the people they hire, which will no doubt be staggered. His knight won't even know where to send people as he hires them. I guess send everyone to east watch in winter seas and then they can make their way to Stannis. There is turmoil and hence work all over the free cities because of Dany that is money on hand without a risky voyage to a strange continent. It is a huge endeavor if it could be done that would take years of just traveling. Maybe it is just a case of best laid plans, and nothing will come of it.

I somewhat agree with what your saying but we have to keep in mind the seasonal differences between Martins world and ours. Many men engaged in agriculture would be finding thier livlyhood coming to a halt for an extended period. Stannis might also have 50 or so ships at White Harbor to use in transportation.My impression was that military operation often came to a halt in wintertime. I can see him getting the ships and the men but it will be impossible for him to feed his men off of forage, he will not be able to operate unless he can supply his men by sea, he would only be able to operate on the coast but I think most of his possible targets will be coastal(Gulltown,Kings Landing,Dragonstone, and Storms End. It is possible as winter deepens that fish and aquatic mammals will migrate south increasing the production of fisheries.If it long terrible winter like everyone is saying the control of these coastal areas could be extremly important as they will be the only source of food production. Also the fact that Stannis is allied with the northerners might give him a huge advantage, they have developed tactics and bred thier animals to operate under these harsh conditions, hence giving him the ability to conduct inland operations.

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Forget the support of the bank a moment ,a stubborn man with a righteous cause and an army (even a ragged little army) is always something people in power should fear. After all there is plenty of historical precedence for such ragged, little armies to suddenly deal a defeat on those they oppose, gain momentum, have new followers flock to their banner and then win and so on and so on until the once ragged little army that was once vastly outnumbered actually wins the war.

There are plenty of good examples from history, but given a recent conversation GRRM had with a certain historical novelist this is the one I am going to tell. In the 860s and 70s the Great Army of the Danes swept through England conquering English Kingdom after English Kingdom, first Northumbria then Mercia and Kent and Anglia until only Wessex stood alone. The Danes attacked Wessex over Christmas of 878 and occupied most of that land including the capital Winchester. However the king of Wessex managed to escape and hid out in the marshes with few hundred loyal followers. The story goes that at one stage the king was reduced to hiding out incognito in a peasant woman's hut where he was scolded for letting her bread burn. Now this King's name happens to be Alfred and slowly he rallies more people to his banner and then he gives the Danes battle at Edington in 879 which he wins driving the Danes from his kingdom. During the rest of his reign he manages to claw back more territory from the Danes and by his death in 899 Alfred of Wessex is ruling most of southern England. His son Edward continues his wars against the Danes and his grandson Athelstan would be the first King of a united England.

The moral of the story is in conflicts over kingdoms make sure you finish off your enemies and you see their body or regardless of how few men they may have some stage it is always possible they may begin to win and turn the war against you, That's as true with the Lannisters and Stannis as it was with the Danes and Alfred of Wessex (even without a bank with reputation for getting its way backing him!),

Bernard Cornwall tells it much better in 'The Last Kingdom'.

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