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The Iron Bank and the mockingbird


SpaceChampion

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It is pretty clear that the Tyrells and Lannisters, assisted by the Faith Militant and Greyjoy attacks, are likely to tear each apart. There will be no unified front against Stannis or Aegon and the odds that Tommen or Myrcella will retain the throne drastically decreased since ADWD. It is quite realistic that one or both of them will benefit from the disaffection that the Tyrells and Lannisters are accumulating; the best alternatives to have a pseudo-Baratheon Lannister on the throne is found in Stannis and Aegon (Euron has to get at least one dragon to have any hope of taking the throne). While neither is at all certain of taking the throne, they are more competent than many of their foes' key backers. Lunatics like Cersei are quite ineffective and unpopular while Mace Tyrell does not inspire enormous confidence.

The North is a good base for Stannis and Storm's End is a decent one for Aegon.

The two things that seem most questionable about the Iron Bank factors are whether the amount owed to them is worth expending anything in the war other than a bare minimum and the ability of Massey, without an entourage, to round up that many sellswords. Making the debt owed to the Iron Bank larger would have made it easier to justify their intervention. The Iron Bank itself and its interest in supporting Stannis as a claimant that actually would try to pay the debt if he gets the throne is highly intriguing, however. The possible relation between the bank and the Faceless Men adds to this fact. The Iron Bank has its reputation to protect as well.

It is not all that clear how many mercenaries there are if you add up the various sellsword companies. The logistical issue seems more problematic than there actually be 20,000 available, though, considering how large the Golden Company is. It is also not clear how much Stannis is trying to borrow from the Iron Bank to hire them. How much this loan is valued at compared to what the throne's debt is would have a large affect on whether this makes sense in the book.

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I know this is off topic. But does anyone think it's possible that the Iron Bank shares the same views as the Red Priests of R'hllor , in regards to the Others, the Long Night, and the battle for the Dawn? Is it possible the Iron Bank has some what heeded the warning from the Red Priests? Could that be why Tycho Nestoris is ok with giving Jon the loan for the Nights Watch? Surely Tycho could see how poor the Watch is, and at the time Jon didn't really know how he was going to pay any of it back. Because it wasn't till later that Jon decided to get the "tresures" from the free Folk, as a way of starting to pay it back. So how did Tycho think it would get paid back? Could it be that the Iron Bank has an interest in the Watch surviving, more so than just a business opportunity???

Just a thought, let me know what you all think.

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I've tried to find some information on this and the most prominent religion in Braavos is called the moonsingers, there is alomost no information about them or thier beliefs. All though almost all religions have a place of worship in the temple district. The city itself was founded about 900 years ago in a location decided by the Moonsingers. For 500 year til the doom struck Valyria its location was a secret. These Braavosi are a very secretive people so its hard to say what thier motives could be. Having said that I believe it is probable that they have had good relations with the Starks for a long time all though they seem to follow a policy of nuetrality as regards Westeros, clearly that could be endangered if they are loaning money to Stannis and letting him raise an army on thier soil perhaps this is an indication that they may be reconsidering this policy. They primarily loaned money to the watch because they saw a profit in it but I think Jons relation to the Starks helped and that they do have an interest in promoting stability. It has been suggested that since R'hollor is a fire god that the power of the red preists has increased with the reintroduction of dragons and the Braavosi are mistrusful of dragons but Melisandres relationship with Stannis doesn't to have made a difference, so who knows.

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Success in the north? He tried to kill himself and the renments of his army by going after the Deadfort before Jon talked him out of it. Then he tried to kill the rest of his army by marching them in winter with no supplies instead of staying in deepwood mote.

Scoreboard: Stannis gained the mountain clans, undid the betrayal, drove off some Ironmen. The realm is unaware of his near failings. We know he's got a plan to win this ice battle and he's very confident. We know Tywin was more worried about Stannis even when Renly had 10x more men than his brother.

He was subordinate to Robert, Jon Aryn and probably Ned Stark and Twin Lanister during the Greyjoy Rebellion, who knows what he is actually responsible for. I don't recall anything describing the smashing of the fleet except in a Cersei chapter where she says Robert did that. Maybe, it never happened and Stanis is lying about it and that is why the Iron Men can have a thousand manned ships a mere 10 years later.

This is not a particularly arguable point. Stannis' success at sea during the Greyjoy Rebellion is mentioned several times, and I don't think Stannis was ever the one to do so. You don't recall it, but it's there.

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The Golden Company isn't a typical mercenary company which I gave my thought about above. The stormcrows and second sons seem like what is more common, both of those companies seem to have a storied history and are somewhat famous and they consist of 500-1500 men. So, you are talking about traveling around the world to find, contract and ship 50-100 mercenary companies to even make Stannis competitive.

I think the ease of which the Golden Company moved their 10,000 men and their Elephants with medieval vessels is pretty absurd too, but at least they were blown of course had losses etc. The same issues will arise for all the people they hire, which will no doubt be staggered. His knight won't even know where to send people as he hires them. I guess send everyone to east watch in winter seas and then they can make their way to Stannis. There is turmoil and hence work all over the free cities because of Dany that is money on hand without a risky voyage to a strange continent. It is a huge endeavor if it could be done that would take years of just traveling. Maybe it is just a case of best laid plans, and nothing will come of it.

500-1500 isn't quite right.

500 is correct for the Second Sons and Stormcrows, and 800 for the Long Lances. But the Company of the Cat is 3,000 and the Windblown are 2,000. Given that we know the names of 5 more (not including the Golden Company) just mentioned in passing (Iron Shields, Bright Banners, Maiden's Men, Ragged Standard, Gallant Men) it's not a stretch to think there are quite a few more whose names haven't come up. I mean really, look at the freaking size of Essos as compared to Westeros. Is it possible Stannis can't get 20,000 men? Sure, of course it is. But saying it's ridiculous would require knowledge we simply do not have.

Beyond all that: STANNIS KNOWS MORE ABOUT THE FREE CITIES THAN WE DO. If he thinks 20,000 is doable it's probably at worst, a stretch, not stupid or insane.

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Adding that many elements that were previously unnknown that will actually have an impact on plot going forward is tantamount to a reinvention of the world in my eyes, and I already know I am not going to like the end result of it if the endeavor is any way successfull.

As for Stannis, there is nothing in any chapter since the war began that makes him look above competent, but whether or not he could win with less, equal or more numbers isn't really the point about whether or not the situation is realistic. One thing Stannis is without question, is unyielding and as a result he has made unreasonable requests of his subordinates on numerous occasions. What Stannis thinks is possible or should happen maybe isn't the best thing to go on, the guy is pretty much insane.

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Stannis is not insane. Maybe Stannis makes unreasonable requests of his subordinates. But these subordinates, in many instances, go and try to live up to Stannis' expectations. In some cases, they even exceed what Stannis requested of them. The result is not alway what Stannis thought what should happen (see Edric Storm), he is not infallible, but he is able to acknowledge that some unexpected result might be better than anything he thought possible.

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The Iron Bank itself and its interest in supporting Stannis as a claimant that actually would try to pay the debt if he gets the throne is highly intriguing, however. The possible relation between the bank and the Faceless Men adds to this fact. The Iron Bank has its reputation to protect as well.

Has anyone mentioned the possibility that the Iron Bank is pouring money into players who seem to be opposed to Daenerys, should she cross the sea? I think this suggests that the Iron Bank has no interest in a restoration of the Targaryen dynasty; perhaps they're looking at the long view.

Also, there are some economic players out there who are in support of Daenerys for financial reasons, for example the Pentoshi merchant Illyrio (although his connection with Varys makes me wonder whether his support is sincere). There is also the wealthy Widow of the Waterfront in Volantis in ADwD who sympathizes with Dany's liberation of the slaves and seems to expect her to leave Meereen and take her host to Westeros by way of the Free Cities.

babyb

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Has anyone mentioned the possibility that the Iron Bank is pouring money into players who seem to be opposed to Daenerys, should she cross the sea? I think this suggests that the Iron Bank has no interest in a restoration of the Targaryen dynasty; perhaps they're looking at the long view.

Also, there are some economic players out there who are in support of Daenerys for financial reasons, for example the Pentoshi merchant Illyrio (although his connection with Varys makes me wonder whether his support is sincere). There is also the wealthy Widow of the Waterfront in Volantis in ADwD who sympathizes with Dany's liberation of the slaves and seems to expect her to leave Meereen and take her host to Westeros by way of the Free Cities.

babyb

IMO by giving Stannis a blank check and letting him raise a force on thier soil the Braavosi are trying to provoke the Iron Throne so that Braavos, supposedly the greatest of the Free Cities, can declare war openly on the side of Stannis. As far as we know all of the Free Companies that have been involved in the fighting East or West have come from the Disputed Lands(South Essos), none of them originated from Braavos though they all probaly have a few members whom are Braavosi.The Braavosi do employ sellswords and from what Ser Jorah said it would have been best for him to work for them implying that Braavos treats it mercenary companies fairly well and that there could be companies in Braavos and thier hinterlands that we have never heard of. For the most part none of the faction in Westeros have employed mercenaries the exception being the Brave Companions, and stannis sellsails.

Most of the companies we have seen are in the East, most of the powers in the East oppose Dany and letting these companies be hired on thier soils and giving them passage to Slavers Bay is OK,Volantis is sending 300 ships, probaly filled with more sellswords, to take Mereen. In the west the Free Cities have stayed nuetral and not let any of the Westerosi hire sellswords or given passage to let them make attacks( The BC cameover before the fighting started,Stannis sellsails are pirates.).Letting somebody do this isn't really nuetral. The volantenes broke this nuetrality when they let there ships be hired by the Golden Company, if you sat the Iron Throne wouln't you be pissed off that Volantis had helped invade your kingdom. Volantis will say they knew about the Targaryean pretender and that they feared he was going to attack them and cause a slave uprising in Volantis.

The Iron throne can crush Aegon in the west and Volantis can crush Dany in the East so it was really a boon, if Aegon had raised the slaves and taken Volantis Dany and him could have eventually combined thier forces and invaded Westeros.

Remember the whole thing smelled funny to Tyrion from the beginning, Illryio is in the slave business and is well connected in Volantis. Tyrion knew that Volantenes would never ship the Golden Company to the East if they meant to combine thier strength to Dany.

Meanwhile Varys assasinates Kevan and Pycelle in King Landing to prevent a quick effective response from the Iron Throne. He shoots Kevan with a crossbow so it will look like Tyrion did it.

Aegons real backer is Illryio(probaly his father), Illryio is the richest man in Pentos and his support will drag that free city into the war on Aegons side. Volantis is opposed to Dany, they see her as existential threat, at least the slaveowners,they don't care a rats ass about Westeros. The Braavosi knowing that this Pentoshi is backing Aegon are now planning to back Stannis to counter him and regain the money they lent. The nuetrality of the free cities is starting to break down.

If Littlefinger is an ally of the IB, he would be able to give them info on Varys and Illryio. If Littlefinger is an ally of IB he will support Stannis(gasp!). Stannis is only a figurehead ,It will be the Lord of the Vale,the Lord Protector of Winterfell, and Braavos who are the true powers but they need Stannis for his claim.

The Braavosi are concerned about Dany but she is to far away at this point and probaly not doing anything to hurt thier interests. The Pentoshi will use Dany if he can but so far that bit hasn't worked out. He sold her to Khal Drogo but she failed to get the Dothrakis to invade Westeros. He probaly never thought Dany would hatch the eggs but when he found out, Illryio sent 3 trading ships to Quarth to make a bunch of money for him and pick up Dany. Groleo did take her to Astapor but could have never have imagined her sacking the city as well as Yunkai and occupying Mereen, Illryio sent her 2 protecrors it was a retrieval mission. Illryio will still use her if he can but she is loose cannon at this point and there is no way he can intervene.

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Has anyone mentioned the possibility that the Iron Bank is pouring money into players who seem to be opposed to Daenerys, should she cross the sea? I think this suggests that the Iron Bank has no interest in a restoration of the Targaryen dynasty; perhaps they're looking at the long view.

Also, there are some economic players out there who are in support of Daenerys for financial reasons, for example the Pentoshi merchant Illyrio (although his connection with Varys makes me wonder whether his support is sincere). There is also the wealthy Widow of the Waterfront in Volantis in ADwD who sympathizes with Dany's liberation of the slaves and seems to expect her to leave Meereen and take her host to Westeros by way of the Free Cities.

babyb

It is certainly possible that the Iron Bank opposes Daenerys on the grounds that a Targaryen restoration involving the use of dragons would be hazardous. However, Daenerys is pretty different from what once occurred in Valyria in several ways; one being that she vigorously opposes slavery. Considering that she is causing massive waves in Slavers' Bay, Braavos is keenly aware of her nature and monarchical claims by now. TWOW will almost certainly answer the question of what the Iron Bank, and perhaps Braavos more generally, thinks of both Daenerys and Aegon. It is conspicuous that they did not select Aegon but it is not yet clear whether that was due to lack of information about him, opposition to Targaryens, or doubts about his willingness to pay/viability of taking the throne.

Whoever overthrows the present occupants of the Iron Throne will likely do so with the helping of some defecting kingdoms/crucial houses that have recently been supporting the Tyrell-Lannister grouping. It is very much in the realm of possibility that Daenerys (if she invades soon), Stannis, or Aegon could receiving important defectors with decent force strengths. The Lannisters seem unable to stop the Brotherhood without Banners from rampaging across the Riverlands, thus threatening the Frey position, and the Tyrells are tying up massive amounts of resources resisting Euron's forces as well as trying to keep the Faith Militant and untrustworthy Lannisters in check. In terms of maintaining loyalty, they cannot afford to suffer a major setback. Both Varys and Littlefinger also are actively working to bring down the Tyrell-Lannister alliance. The leadership in King's Landing seems to be the most detached from reality and least logical of all of the sides claiming royal pretensions, in part due to the killings of some of the more capable Lannisters.

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If Littlefinger is an ally of the IB, he would be able to give them info on Varys and Illryio. If Littlefinger is an ally of IB he will support Stannis(gasp!). Stannis is only a figurehead ,It will be the Lord of the Vale,the Lord Protector of Winterfell, and Braavos who are the true powers but they need Stannis for his claim..

That won't work. Whatever conditions Stannis will agree to, he'll never accept being a figurehead for somebody else's interests. He'll never be a figurehead for sombody else's interests. He asserted his claim, his will to rule, for a very long time now. He refused to make a deal with the King in the North, as the North should have been following the Iron Throne, therefore follow Stannis. And the other players in the Game of Thrones are aware of this, are aware that Stannis would wrestle the power away from them. If it is a figurehead they are looking for, they would support some other claimant to the throne.

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Jon, not Stannis, exhibited the most grandoise view of how much the Iron Bank will help Stannis's cause. From ADWD:

"If Stannis was not too stiff-necked to accept their terms, the Braavosi would give him all the gold and silver he required, coin enough to buy a dozen sellsword companies, to bribe a hundred lords, to keep his men paid, fed clothed, and armed. Unless Stannis is lying dead beneath the walls of Winterfell, he may just have won the Iron Throne. He wondered if Melisandre had seen that in her fires."

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It is conspicuous that they did not select Aegon but it is not yet clear whether that was due to lack of information about him, opposition to Targaryens, or doubts about his willingness to pay/viability of taking the throne.

My thought is that any restored Targaryen (Aegon or Dany) will not honor debts rung up by usurpers with the Iron Bank. Either one will essentially be able to say that the debts are not actually the debts of the "throne," and that the Iron Bank must take its losses for dealing with traitors.

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My thought is that any restored Targaryen (Aegon or Dany) will not honor debts rung up by usurpers with the Iron Bank. Either one will essentially be able to say that the debts are not actually the debts of the "throne," and that the Iron Bank must take its losses for dealing with traitors.

My thoughts as well I can just imagine Daernerys now screaming at some Braavossi banker "The Usurper's debts! The Usurper's debts! Dracarys! Dracarys! Dracarys!".

The other thing that comes to mind when we think of Braavos' interests is the picture that we get of that state from Arya and Sam's POVs and the discussions on the interactions of the Free Cities from the likes of Illyrio. There is the anecdote about about how the ship yards of Braavos can build and launch a war galley fit for battle in a single day and how Braavos is capable of making the other free cities change major internal policy merely by the threat of sending a fleet. The impression that seems to be being built up is if there is a regional economic, industrial and military superpower in the West of GRRM's world it is clearly Braavos. Hell! They are even effectively doing 'gun-boat diplomacy' 19th century British style...

When you view Braavos like this, you have to start thinking about their motives in the stark terms of realpolitik. What will a queen on the Iron Throne with real living fire-breathing dragons mean for Braavos? The answer is quite obvious Braavos is immediately booted down to the rank of a second rate power and one just across the narrow sea from a new superpower with the world's premiere super weapon.

Daernerys' anti-slavery may well be in tune with Braavos' own; however in real terms that means very little when she and her dragons in their quest to seize the Iron Throne are in themselves a very real threat to Braavos' national security,

As aside I would very interested to know about the Targaryens' relations with the Free cities especially when they had dragons before.

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That won't work. Whatever conditions Stannis will agree to, he'll never accept being a figurehead for somebody else's interests. He'll never be a figurehead for sombody else's interests. He asserted his claim, his will to rule, for a very long time now. He refused to make a deal with the King in the North, as the North should have been following the Iron Throne, therefore follow Stannis. And the other players in the Game of Thrones are aware of this, are aware that Stannis would wrestle the power away from them. If it is a figurehead they are looking for, they would support some other claimant to the throne.

The IB can't support Tommen Baratheon, Aegon is backed by the Pentoshi, Euron has no legit claim and Dany isn't in Weteros and may never get there. The field is getting thin, Stannis was at the right place at the right time and does have the best provable claim.Figurehead was perhaps a poor choice of terms but Stannis will have to form a consensus with his allies or they will find another claimant and abandon him. I don't see this happening, Lord Davos will be an effective Hand and Admiral, Jon seems to have given him good advice on northern strategy, LF can advise him on realpolitik, Sellswords don't mind fighting but they don't like dying they aren't going to follow a rash plan likely to get them killed, Stannis has a much more competent group of people around him than last time and will have to adapt to it. If I was advising Stannis I would tell him to stay at the nightfort and let Davos handle things down south.

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If Braavos truly is supporting Stannis and Pentos really backing Aegon, what are the chances of an actual war in the Free Cities? Throw in Dany (hopefully) reaching Volantis and the slaves taking control of the city we'll have the three biggest cities backing different contenders. Throw in the Dorne-Norvos connection, the fact that Braavos hates Lys for slavery, and Tyrosh controlling the only access for any fleet to reach Westeros and it becomes possible that conflict might spill out of Westeros.

Or Dany could just never reach Westeros. If I have to read one more book where she doesn't at least reach Volantis I will give up on ASOIAF.

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The IB can't support Tommen Baratheon, Aegon is backed by the Pentoshi, Euron has no legit claim and Dany isn't in Weteros and may never get there. The field is getting thin, Stannis was at the right place at the right time and does have the best provable claim.Figurehead was perhaps a poor choice of terms but Stannis will have to form a consensus with his allies or they will find another claimant and abandon him. I don't see this happening, Lord Davos will be an effective Hand and Admiral, Jon seems to have given him good advice on northern strategy, LF can advise him on realpolitik, Sellswords don't mind fighting but they don't like dying they aren't going to follow a rash plan likely to get them killed, Stannis has a much more competent group of people around him than last time and will have to adapt to it. If I was advising Stannis I would tell him to stay at the nightfort and let Davos handle things down south.

There are still other people with claims - just look at the Martells. If the Iron bank only wants a figurehead (whatever), Doran Martell would be an excellent choice. He has Targaryen blood thanks to the first Daenerys, and with Iron Bank and Littlefinger's support, he'd be able to take the Iron Throne from the Lannisters. WIthout bothering to woo Aegon's or Dany's favor. And Doran knows that he is too weak to hold the Iron Throne on his own, so he might be willing to listen.

I don't think that Stannis will accept Littlefinger in his Small Council. Once Stannis finds out about Sansa, he'll hopefully recognize that Littlefinger has been playing all sides in the last few years. Stannis is touchy about that sort of stuff. Littlefinger didn't give me the impression that he was working with the Iron Bank, anyway. He may have been deceiving them, as he deceives everybody else. If the Iron Bank recognizes that, they'll go after him as well.

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There are still other people with claims - just look at the Martells. If the Iron bank only wants a figurehead (whatever), Doran Martell would be an excellent choice. He has Targaryen blood thanks to the first Daenerys, and with Iron Bank and Littlefinger's support, he'd be able to take the Iron Throne from the Lannisters. WIthout bothering to woo Aegon's or Dany's favor. And Doran knows that he is too weak to hold the Iron Throne on his own, so he might be willing to listen. I don't think that Stannis will accept Littlefinger in his Small Council. Once Stannis finds out about Sansa, he'll hopefully recognize that Littlefinger has been playing all sides in the last few years. Stannis is touchy about that sort of stuff. Littlefinger didn't give me the impression that he was working with the Iron Bank, anyway. He may have been deceiving them, as he deceives everybody else. If the Iron Bank recognizes that, they'll go after him as well.
The last time we saw Littlefinger he seemed to be vexed by Cerseis incompetence, he believed he would have 4 or 5 years to work with, we have keep in mind that he is talking to Sansa, but he struck me as a man who had just rolled the dice. Originally the plan had been to marry Sansa to Robert in secret once Tyrion died giving the Vale a claim to Winterfell. We have to assume the murder of Lysa Arryn was planned, his marriage to her would've cemented his claim as Lord paramont of the Trident and Riverrun so it seems reasonable that he does want to marry Sansa in the long run as she has a claim through her mother. The Freys might have a claim through Rosilin but everybody hates the Freys and Rosilins child hasn't even been born yet. Edmure is still alive as a captive but a lot of people want him dead. In the long run LF wanted the riverlands and rivverrun, Winterfell would go to his children through Sansa and would be helped by the Stark relatives in the Vale. In this scenario Harry might marry Margery Tyrell. Lf isn't isn't as inconsistent as he seems his proposal to Ned was to make a short term peace with the Lannister, oppose Stannis, and then in 2 or 3 years spill the beans on the whole incest thing and give the throne to Renly. In the short term his concern was defeating Stannis. If Ned had been named regent Renly would not have made a claim, Renly even offered Ned help to seize Joff and sieze the regency by force. So I think LF meant to support Renly to begin with but he died and that bit didn't work out. So the new plan outlined above is to cement his claim to the riverlands by marrying Sansa, ally the Vale and the Reach through marriage, and use Sansas claim and the Stark relatives in the Vale to claim Winterfell helped by the Vale and the Reach. Keep in mind this would happen over a 4 or 5 year period and would involve the decay and dissolution of the Lannister claim. At this point the Lannister are the common enemy. Maybe bring in Dorne by marrying Arriane to Wilas. Maybe marry someone to Shireen Baratheon(Stannis is dead at this point) to get a claim to the stormlands or Edric Storm. If Dorne wont play ball they are isolated and they would probaly support the whole part about the Lannisters anyway. At this point a great council is summoned to name the new monarchs perhaps Wilas and Arriane as a further inducement to Dorne(or Aegon). . The spoils of Casterly Rock would pay the IB off in this scenario. There is no longer 4 or 5 years to work with however, Cersei is destroying the kingdom and her childrens claim to it in short order, she has provoked the Braavosi into supporting Stannis and given him time to gather support,remember according to the Flint that Bran met in the mountians Bolton men were asking around after certian dead people up and down the kingsroad in the north, so the possibilty of Stannis having a legit claimant might be suspected. Meantime news is coming from the East of Dany conquering Slavers Bay, there are initial reports of sellswords landing in the stormlands hired by Stannis, LF might know better. Parts of the Reach are furious with Cersei for holding up the Redwyne fleet. Dorne might make efforts to ally with the Targaryeans. The Tyrell alliance with the Lannisters has been a disaster for them. Parts of the Reach might declare for a Targaryean as well. So where does this leave LF Lord Protector of the Vale and Lord Paramour of the Trident. Does he throw in with Aegon(Illryio/Varys), Stannis, or stay pat? If his plan is to marry Sansa to Harry its not staying pat. Is the Vale going to fight with the North for Sansas claim? Will they fight for Sansas claim if Rickon shows up and is restored to Winterfell? Can they fight in the North in winter? Does Lf believe Stannis means to make a claim with the Bastard(Jon Snow)? Remember what the Blackfish said to Jamie about Jon? LF needs swords and he knew the Blackfish growing up and don't forget that the Riverrun claim is in play with Sansa as well. Does all this give you a headache thinking about it too? Probaly LF means to support Aegon but once the events going on in the North are widely known whatever plans he has will fall apart and this time he probaly wont survive. This would probaly leaves Bronze Yohn Royce as Lord Protecror if Robert Arryn survives, lost one son in the epilouge of AGOT, another son was a member of Renlys rainbow guard and killed by Ser Loras, Lysa said he wanted her to support Robb in the war. I think he would lean Stannis, Bronze is close to Harry, I think he knighted him. Another clue to Littlefingers possble intentions is that most of his support is in Gulltown.Gulltown stayed loyal to the Targaryeans during Roberts rebellion until it was taken by force. I don't think anyone would support a Dornish claim to the Iron Throne if it was made independently.
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My guess would be that the Iron Bank are run by the Faceless Men, given the fact that anyone who dares not repay their depts (whether smallfolk or royalty) are assasinated, and it would explain where the assasin's enormous salaries are stored. The Faceless Men seem to be a great force in the world, and consider the Valyrian culture (slavery, dragons, empirical expansion) their mortal enemies. They seem to a huge player that opperated very much from the shadows.

Supporting Stannis over the incompetant Lannister's doesn't seem that absurd, but why don't they back Aegon instead, given his greater strength and claim? Because they oppose Tarageryen's on principle. They have also seem to have sent the Alchemist to infilitrate the Citidel, and find out how to kill these dragons that Dany has summoned.

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We have to assume the murder of Lysa Arryn was planned, his marriage to her would've cemented his claim as Lord paramont of the Trident and Riverrun so it seems reasonable that he does want to marry Sansa in the long run as she has a claim through her mother.

LF would not have needed his claim cemented. Jaime lannister makes it clear to the Freys at the seige of Riverrun that LF at Harrenhal will be Lord Paramount of the Trident. Marrying Sansa would be redundant and take away a potential marriage proposal, By marrying her to Harry the Heir he gains the North and the Vale.

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