The Iron Bank and the mockingbird

[jarl the climber]

LF would not have needed his claim cemented. Jaime lannister makes it clear to the Freys at the seige of Riverrun that LF at Harrenhal will be Lord Paramount of the Trident. Marrying Sansa would be redundant and take away a potential marriage proposal, By marrying her to Harry the Heir he gains the North and the Vale.

He doesn't gain anything by marrying Sansa to Harry. He is Roberts Lord Protector if Robert dies Harry would become Lord and if Sansa is his wife she would become Lady of the Vale. LF thinks Sansa has a claim to Winterfell because she is the last surviving Stark child, which we know is not the case. If the Cerseis kids lose the throne LFs title could be revoked nor does LF have any interest in taking up residence in Harrenhal. Now if Lysa was still alive and married to him he would have an independent claim, Lysa is the youngest daughter of Hoster Tully and could inherit Riverrun if something happens to Edmure and the child he might have with Rosilin. However once LF got his mitts on Sansa and Lysa named him Roberts Lord Protector he did not need her anymore. Sansa as Catelyns daughter has a better claim to Riverrun than Lysa, and Lysa naming him Lord Protector(guardian) of Robert stands even with her death. If the peace of the 3 queens had not intervened and he had his 4 or 5 years to work with IMO he would have married Sansa and taken up residence in Rivverrun as its Lord and Lord Paramount of the Trident, which no doubt would have ammused him to no end, Winterfell would have gone to thier children. but he did not have 4 or 5 years to implement a plan to cushion the 7 kingdoms from the eventual fall of Cersei and her children. The plan to marry Sansa to Harry is an attempt to deal with the real prospect that the Lannister reign is falling now.

[Tini]

I think Littlefinger planned to marry Sansa to Harry the Heir in any case. That would give Sansa a claim to the Vale, provided that she produces an heir. Once she is pregnant, Harry the Heir would no longer be needed - as far as Littlefinger is concerned. Then Littlefinger could step in, and marry Sansa. Who would deny him the right to act as Lord Protector for his stepson, the Lord of the Vale and Winterfell?

Losing the four or five years only means that he'll need to move faster to remove little Robert Arryn from the equation. Little Robert may die of natural causes in the next five years. But Littlefinger cannot wait that long, so he'll probably help him die.

[jarl the climber]

I think Littlefinger planned to marry Sansa to Harry the Heir in any case. That would give Sansa a claim to the Vale, provided that she produces an heir. Once she is pregnant, Harry the Heir would no longer be needed - as far as Littlefinger is concerned. Then Littlefinger could step in, and marry Sansa. Who would deny him the right to act as Lord Protector for his stepson, the Lord of the Vale and Winterfell?

Losing the four or five years only means that he'll need to move faster to remove little Robert Arryn from the equation. Little Robert may die of natural causes in the next five years. But Littlefinger cannot wait that long, so he'll probably help him die.

Hmmm... yes he might plan on killing Harry out of love for Sansa and power but I think what he really wants is Riverrun, he was expelled from there by Lord Hoster and it was the scene of his duel with Brandon, Sansa is next in line to Riverrun if Edmure and his child die or so LF believes,

Bran and Rickon would come before her.

[History of Westeros]

Littlefinger is already helping him die it seems. The whole bit about dosing him with sweetsleep (which the Eyrie Maester says can be fatal with too large a dose) is ominous.

[Carey Snow]

Cersei never spoke to the Iron Bank right?

What I mean is, as the reader we know that she planned to continue paying the Iron Bank after her sons seat on the Iron Throne was secure. My question is, does the Iron Bank think she was ever going to resume payments on the loan to the Iron Throne? (keep in mind when Tycho was in Kingslanding, Cersei was in charge).

If the Iron Bank believes that the Crown won't pay anymore of its debt (with the current people in charge), then it makes complete sense they would support Stannis.

Tycho Nestoris is obviously the Iron Throne representative, for the Iron Bank, or at minimum the "collector", for said loan.

By the time Tycho decided to go look for Stannis, Aegon wasn't even in the picture yet. And even in the new Theon chapter, when Tycho makes the deal with Stannis, I'm pretty sure they still think Aegon and Co, are only raiders ( assuming they have heard anything at all about them). Not to mention there is a lot of bad blood between the Braavosi and the "Dragons". So that's my argument to people who wonder why Tycho/Iron Bank is backing Stannis, and not Aegon.

As to the people who say, "surely Stannis won't agree to pay his brothers debt, let alone Joffery's and Cersei's"

If you remember in ADwD, when Jon first meets Tycho. Jon says to Tycho, surely you can't expect Stannis to make good on his brothers debt? (this is in my own words but it went something like that) then Tycho explains to Jon that who ever is sitting on the Iron Throne at the time, takes over payments on the the loan. That's also when Tycho tells Jon his plans to support Stannis if he agree's to pay the loan, of the Iron Throne. And its also when Jon decides to Help Tycho get to Stannis, by giving him horses and guides. I also believe that, that's when Jon decides to give Tycho the letter, depicting Karstark as a turncloak (me thinks that's the letter on the table with the Black seal.) This is also when Jon decides to make a deal with the Braavosi Banker, for the NW.

The reason why I listed so many things about what was happening then, is because it seems like a lot of people forgot that part in the book, when Tycho explains to Jon, how the deal works with the current ruler of the Iron Throne. (again in a lot of forums I have been on, including this one, people say things about other people not paying someone else's debt when they take over the Iron throne....but it's clear that if you want to continue banking with the Iron Bank of Braavo's, you have to take over the loan, no matter who set on the Iron Throne before you.)

As to the whole Letter with the Black Seal, in the new released Theon chapter. Many people do not believe that is the letter from Jon, about the Karstark warning. They don't believe this because Of this part in the chapter

"A letter, Theon knew. Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. I know what that says, he thought, giggling."

People say how could Theon know what the letter from Jon says?......I would like to point out that Tycho knows about the warning to Stannis. Also Tycho and his "armored guards" found Theon and "Arya" outside of Winterfell, in the camp of Crowfood Umber. Then they had to travel around looking for Stannis and his army. I find it highly plausible that Tycho could have talked to Theon about Jon, telling him to warn Stannis about Karstark. (or the Iron born could have told Theon after they learned it from Tycho).

Also there is this quote from the new Theon chapter.

"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts."

Stannis is delivering "Arya" to Jon, as a thanks for the warning letter he sent. (also for sending Tycho with guides from the NW, so Tycho could find and make it to Stannis.)

I know this is really long, but that's my take on a few things.

On Cersei and the Iron bank, she does speak to Noho Dimittis from the Iron Bank on page 493 of my paper back edition. She is pretty rude and basically tells him that she will pay the Bank once the rebellion is put down. Then she has him escorted out.

As far as Theon, he could also have been present when Stannis opened and read the letter as it would have been delivered to Stannis by the Banker along with himself.

[Archmaester Marwin]

I really didn't like the involvement of them. Backing Stannis to the extent of being able to win a war would easily cost more than the debt already incurred. Any savvy banker knows not to throw good money after bad.

What makes you think this? For all we know Robert's whole Rebellion and the crushing of the Greyjoy rebellion were paid for with coin from the Iron bank and Lannisters that Robert has been ducking payment of.

[Tini]

If anybody sitting the Iron Throne who wants to deal with the Iron Bank has to take over the crown's debts, Robert may even have taken over eventual debts run up by the Targaryen kings before him.

[Jaehaerys I]

If anybody sitting the Iron Throne who wants to deal with the Iron Bank has to take over the crown's debts, Robert may even have taken over eventual debts run up by the Targaryen kings before him.

I believe it was mentioned in AGoT that the crown wasn't in debt until Robert was king. I believe it is in the chapter where it is Ned's first day with the council, where they want to throw the Hand's tourney.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

What makes you think this? For all we know Robert's whole Rebellion and the crushing of the Greyjoy rebellion were paid for with coin from the Iron bank and Lannisters that Robert has been ducking payment of.

Ned tells us that Aerys Targaryen left a treasury flowing with gold. In addition, Robert took plenty of gold and land from Tary supporters like House Dary. Tywin as hand gave much wealth and prosperity to the realm. It was Roberts foolishness that bankrupted the realm (worse king in history).

It was little finger who sought out the iron bank to pay for Robert's folly.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

If anybody sitting the Iron Throne who wants to deal with the Iron Bank has to take over the crown's debts, Robert may even have taken over eventual debts run up by the Targaryen kings before him.

There was no debt pre-Robert. If nothing else Aerys was wise with money. His treasury was overflowing with gold according to Ned.

[Brucolac]

What makes you think this? For all we know Robert's whole Rebellion and the crushing of the Greyjoy rebellion were paid for with coin from the Iron bank and Lannisters that Robert has been ducking payment of.

By the time of Game of Thrones has started the Iron Bank has already stopped giving loans, which we see from Little Fingers comment and at most they are owed two million, but it probably much closer to one million since Littlefinger mentions the Tyrels and a couple traders as also significant holders of the crowns debt. I don't know what one million dragons can buy, but somehow I doubt it is a kingdom the size of westeros.

"We owe Lord Tywin some three million dragons at present, what matter another hundred thousand?”

Ned was stunned. “Are you claiming that the Crown is three million gold pieces in debt?”

“The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I’ve had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger.”

It seems to me we owe the Faith some nine hundred thousand dragons.”

“Nine hundred thousand six hundred and seventy-four dragons. Gold that could feed the hungry and rebuild a thousand septs.”

[mediterraneo]

The point with the bank gving money to another usurper is:

this credit can be exiged only if Stannis wins, without getting killed while his faction wins.

If Stannis loses, both credits are lost.

If Stannis wins his battles, but dies, the credit is lost.

If Stannis wins the war, seizes the seven realms and has a peace, he will have the responsability to face the winter. If he decides to pospone the paying of the debt, the Iron Bank could call itself lucky. If he decided not to pay...

Is the Iron Bank so powerful that it can finance the conquering of the Seven Kingdoms twice in a row, while the real is settling down having eliminated any legiptimate threat to the ruler?

The bank can be a great help to the cause of a candidate ruler who is just marginally losing his civil war. Can the bank pull out an allout foreign invasion of Westeros to force Stannis to pay his debt?

"Stannis will not betray his word" is something a lot of the readers will affirm. But it is a guarantee not expressed in the way that would have convenced the banker I have to ask to for my own credit if I want to buy a house.

The ruler of half the world (or a third, or a quarter) is normally able not to pay when he does not want to. A lot of banker had to declare failure after much smaller monarchs did something like that in european history. Ask to the Welser and to the same Fugger for that. Private companies capable to give credible menaces to sovereign states are children of the modern times.

My point leads to a question: if there is not sufficient economical reason to up the stakes in Westeros, why does the bank insist? Is their reputation worth enough? Or do their involvement have something to do with their braavosi base?

Is there a link between the bank and the faceless men?

[SweetRobin4Life]

I think what he really wants is Riverrun, he was expelled from there by Lord Hoster and it was the scene of his duel with Brandon, Sansa is next in line to Riverrun

I think that scene show LF's motivation for his actions. Not that he wants Riverrun but that he wants all of Westeros so that Riverrun will seem inconsequential. He was denied Cat because he was such a minor landholder, controlling the Seven Kingdoms would make him the most powerful lord.

Besides, we all know Sansa will marry Sandor, not LF

[jarl the climber]

Mediterraneo, most of your questions can't be answered conclusivly but we do know that the tresury in King Landing is empty in the epilouge of ADwD and that Ser Kevan fears that he might have to dip into the Lannister gold. So the Iron Throne is in serious financial straits which has been exacerbated by the Iron banks policy of calling in all its loans in Westeros. We know from the final Davos chapter that Manderly has built a fleet and claims his vault are stuffed with silver, White Harbor is the main port and economic lifeline of the North so we can deduce that something fundamentaly different is happening here, since the North is nominaly independent and not a part of the 7 it might not have fallen under its cut off of credit. The North hasn't had power at sea since Brandon the Shipwright and probaly most of the foriegn trade is controled by Braavos because of its proximity to White Harbor, Manderly admits that most of his people are fishermen or sail the bite.

We must also realize that the IB certianly has strong connection to its great merchants and its rulers. The loan to Stannis and the use of its territory to raise troops is a provacation, it give Kings Landing a causi belli. We can't rule out that Braavos means to enter the war in support of Stannis. Does the Ib know about Aegon and the support Illryio, the Pentoshi has given him. Clearly if Aegon runs into trouble Illryio will no longer be able to stay in the shadows. Usually the Free Cities don't interfere in Westeros and vice versa but we can see that might be coming to an end. Don't know about the IB and FM at this point.

The bank does not state its reasons for going to Stannis and not another claimant, Jon also feels that his own loan was to easily made. The bank can not invade Westeros but it can cut off credit to the kingdom and its merchants and encourage every uprising that happens. the bank clearly feels that there is reason to up the stakes and that thier reputation is at stake. We do not know for sure the role of the Braavosi base but the banks actions are provactive and might be an indication. We can maybe guess that FM keep thier money in the IB but other than that we have no idea.

[History of Westeros]

Mediterraneo, most of your questions can't be answered conclusivly but we do know that the tresury in King Landing is empty in the epilouge of ADwD and that Ser Kevan fears that he might have to dip into the Lannister gold. So the Iron Throne is in serious financial straits which has been exacerbated by the Iron banks policy of calling in all its loans in Westeros. We know from the final Davos chapter that Manderly has built a fleet and claims his vault are stuffed with silver, White Harbor is the main port and economic lifeline of the North so we can deduce that something fundamentaly different is happening here, since the North is nominaly independent and not a part of the 7 it might not have fallen under its cut off of credit. The North hasn't had power at sea since Brandon the Shipwright and probaly most of the foriegn trade is controled by Braavos because of its proximity to White Harbor, Manderly admits that most of his people are fishermen or sail the bite.

We must also realize that the IB certianly has strong connection to its great merchants and its rulers. The loan to Stannis and the use of its territory to raise troops is a provacation, it give Kings Landing a causi belli. We can't rule out that Braavos means to enter the war in support of Stannis. Does the Ib know about Aegon and the support Illryio, the Pentoshi has given him. Clearly if Aegon runs into trouble Illryio will no longer be able to stay in the shadows. Usually the Free Cities don't interfere in Westeros and vice versa but we can see that might be coming to an end. Don't know about the IB and FM at this point.

The bank does not state its reasons for going to Stannis and not another claimant, Jon also feels that his own loan was to easily made. The bank can not invade Westeros but it can cut off credit to the kingdom and its merchants and encourage every uprising that happens. the bank clearly feels that there is reason to up the stakes and that thier reputation is at stake. We do not know for sure the role of the Braavosi base but the banks actions are provactive and might be an indication. We can maybe guess that FM keep thier money in the IB but other than that we have no idea.

The Manderly wealth is largely derived from silver mines. Nothing sneaky there. It's said that their mines that produce as much silver as the Lannisters produce gold from theirs. Forget where that's mentioned but I'm sure others will recall that tidbit as well.

[History of Westeros]

Is the Iron Bank so powerful that it can finance the conquering of the Seven Kingdoms twice in a row, while the real is settling down having eliminated any legiptimate threat to the ruler?

Is there a link between the bank and the faceless men?

Technically the IB didn't fund the conquering of Westeros twice, only once. They didn't fund Robert's rebellion. Robert screwed up the treasury *after* becoming king. So it was his fiscal policies and out of control spending, not the war.

It seems like the bank *must* have more going on than just banking. They have a oft-mentioned and well known reputation for having a big influence on politics and who rules where. That reputation had to come from somewhere. So to people who are questioning the sense of their loans: consider that you are saying so without full knowledge. Clearly there is more to this, so I'd say it's very premature to call it dumb or unrealistic. If the IB is, for example, league with the FM, then all of a sudden it's not so unrealistic at all.

[History of Westeros]

By the time of Game of Thrones has started the Iron Bank has already stopped giving loans, which we see from Little Fingers comment and at most they are owed two million, but it probably much closer to one million since Littlefinger mentions the Tyrels and a couple traders as also significant holders of the crowns debt. I don't know what one million dragons can buy, but somehow I doubt it is a kingdom the size of westeros.

Agree with this analysis. Littlefinger (not "Little Fingers" you silly man :) ) also suggests that they will be borrowing the money for the Hand's tourney from the Lannisters, which sorta indicates they've reached the limit of their credit with the IB, Faith and others perhaps.

It does seem very likely that the IB was in play by the time the Greyjoy rebellion came around, but perhaps not before.

[Brucolac]

Yeah, meant that to be "Littlefinger's" but my fingers get ahead of my thoughts at times, hence all the edits in my posts. It doesn't really matter when they started borrowing money from the Iron Bank, I was just showing that we basically know what the debt was and when their borrowing was capped.

I'm not saying that GRRM can't reinvent his world and show areas that he never has before, but I find it incredibly annoying when authors do that late in the game. From what has been revealed of the world, it is silly and changing or adding to the world to make it seem realistic isn't going to be any better in my eyes. Like my first post in this thread said, I wish he hadn't pursued this, and I hope nothing ever comes of it since he did in an unpublished chapter. There were plenty of ways to make Stannis a contender again without just giving him the buy the impossible approach. Nor do I want to sit around really for the time this scheme would actually take to pan out.

[jarl the climber]

Yeah, meant that to be "Littlefinger's" but my fingers get ahead of my thoughts at times, hence all the edits in my posts. It doesn't really matter when they started borrowing money from the Iron Bank, I was just showing that we basically know what the debt was and when their borrowing was capped.

I'm not saying that GRRM can't reinvent his world and show areas that he never has before, but I find it incredibly annoying when authors do that late in the game. From what has been revealed of the world, it is silly and changing or adding to the world to make it seem realistic isn't going to be any better in my eyes. Like my first post in this thread said, I wish he hadn't pursued this, and I hope nothing ever comes of it since he did in an unpublished chapter. There were plenty of ways to make Stannis a contender again without just giving him the buy the impossible approach. Nor do I want to sit around really for the time this scheme would actually take to pan out.

I sympathize, I have hard time buying the 1,000 ship fleet of the Iron Islands and Danys Unsullied. Historicaly mercenaries were trained and hired out by lords(Hessians, and Swiss come to mind). Also there just isn't much evidence of any side using mercenaries during the war, the only exceptions are the Brave Companions and Salla Saan. Using mercs who can't speak Westrerosi common won't be popular makes more sense if Braavos just enters the war on Stannis's side.

[A Dire Wolf]

Actually I wouldn't at all surprised if Lord Baelish isn't the second biggest debtor to the Iron Bank in Westeros after the Crown! I've often wondered how I'd like to see to Littlefinger finally get his come-up-ance - right now I am kind of leaning towards the Iron Bank heavies showing up at the Eyrie threatening to discuss his credit rating...

The discussion of Littlefinger not being a friend of the Iron Bank mixed with the comments that the Faceless Men at least likely have some relationship with the Iron Bank brings up an interesting idea...

If the Iron Bank were to send an FM to Littlefinger... What if it were Arya? And she ran into Sansa? Interesting possibilities?