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[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 3


Angalin

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I'm sorry but Stannnis writing the letter does not make sense from a character or story perspective. The letter potentially puts Stannis' family in danger, sets his own men left at the wall at odds with the watch and creates chaos in an area where he needs stability. If he wanted reinforcements he would simply write to Mel to have his knights left at the wall round up some willing and able wildling fighters and head towards Winterfell.

Sometimes it seems like people are trying to be clever and find the convoluted secret so they can claim they knew the whole time on the minuscule chance it comes true rather than what makes sense for the story.

There are interesting questions raised by the letter that don't rely on Stannis suddenly deciding he just loves chaos.

The wax was pink but there was no seal suggesting the author(Ramsey) was either physically separated from Roose or it was written without Roose's permission. If Roose was simply killed Ramsey could have claimed the seal. This could mean the letter was written outside of Winterfell which would necessitate having a raven trained to fly to the wall or fighting in Winterfell isolated the author or simply the author could be acting on his own. Personally I think Ramsey wrote the letter but the panicked and angry tone and lack of seal means things aren't as he would like Jon to believe.

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One the other note, I'm not sure that Jon's loan was such a good plan. He will have gold in winter when the food will be the most expensive, and have to pay at spring, where it will again gain much more value. One the brighter side, I don't even want to imagine how expensive will wood become in Braavos in Winter. So maybe the North and NW will cope somehow.

One reason to think that the loan can be repaid is that Tycho and the Iron Bank think so. The Watch has no collateral so they must be based this on their assessment of the current political situation (Watch semi-aligned with their choice for the Iron Throne) and the long lifespan of the Watch. The Watch has practically nothing in collateral to repossess.

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Jon collected the treasures that the wildlings brought, in order to give it as a first payment to the bank in exchange for the loan. So Jon did more than just promise the Iron Bank to pay them back at an unspecified later date, he is actually working on it.

And of course the loan was a good plan. He may have the gold in winter when food prices are steep but that would still be better than starving to death. Maybe it would have been better if he could have gotten a loan of cabbage and other food stuff but the Iron Bank does not deal in groceries. Consider that winters can last for years, and that people expect this winter to be especially harsh because it was preceded by a long summer. I am not sure that Jon would only buy food. Winterfell had green houses to grow vegetables during winter time, and Jon grew up knowing about their purpose. Maybe Jon planned similar green houses near the Wall (if suitable hot springs could be found). Winter is not the best time for building, maybe, but it beats simply waiting for death.

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It is interesting that Theon stated that the Bolton forces coming for Stannis would be split in three. Firstly, that is kind of a stupid strategy on Bolton's side, but clearly we need to suspend our disbelief here for plot purposes.

This split will allow the Freys to be anihilated without the Mandrerlys suffering similar casualties, and at the same time it will allow Ramsay to arrive on the scene after the main battle has taken place, in order for him to draw his false conclusions from the aftermath.

The Freys have been set up to charge ahead recklessly, led by the moronic Hosteen (after the other prominent Frey saw his Aenus in Crowfood's trap).

So a Frey anihilation is pretty much a given.

How far behind Ramsay will be with his army, and exactly where the Manderlys will be, well, that is very difficult to figure out at this point in time.

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I have two probably stupid questions:

1. How does Theon know that Bolton will attack with his forces split in three? How does Theon know anything about Bolton's plans? And why does Stannis believe what he tells him? Do we indeed have any proof that Ramsay really left Winterfell to attack anyone? Stannis says it's a mistake to leave the castle, so why does he just believe Ramsay will do exactly that? And honestly: why would Ramsay do that? I am sure I missed something here, could anyone explain it, please?

2. Is it possible to figure out how much time has passed between the gift chapter out of TWOW and Jon's last chapter in ADWD by taking into account the lasting/dwindling of the snow storm? The blizzard is mentioned continuously in Theon's, Asha's, and Jon's POV. And if I remember correctly, it has stopped in one of Jon's later chapters. If we also take into account the days the Iron Banker needs to get from here to there, wouldn't it be possible to get a timeline for all characters? Or do we have to assume that GRRM would botch those up anyway? I don't have the books with me right now, but maybe it would work?

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My take on the letter sent to Jon is, that it was sent by Ramsay, who had been misinformed about Stannis' downfall by Manderly.

Manderly and Stannis get together, and they wipe the Frey's out. Then Stannis gives Manderly Lightbringer so Manderly can get back to Ramsay and say that Stannis is dead (Lightbringer being the proof of that), when in reality he's just waiting to do a proper surprise attack on Winterfell when the Bolton's least expect it. I mean, it's winter and the roads are nearly impossible to travel, so they aren't exactly expecting an attack once Manderly says that Stannis' forces have been annihilated.

But then again, I could be completely wrong.

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I have two probably stupid questions:

1. How does Theon know that Bolton will attack with his forces split in three? How does Theon know anything about Bolton's plans? And why does Stannis believe what he tells him? Do we indeed have any proof that Ramsay really left Winterfell to attack anyone? Stannis says it's a mistake to leave the castle, so why does he just believe Ramsay will do exactly that? And honestly: why would Ramsay do that? I am sure I missed something here, could anyone explain it, please?

We know there were two forces slit and sent out after Stannis: one made of Freys and one of Manderlys. Theon stole Arya so Ramsay will be coming as well - or so he figures; he'll want his bride and his Reek back.

2. Is it possible to figure out how much time has passed between the gift chapter out of TWOW and Jon's last chapter in ADWD by taking into account the lasting/dwindling of the snow storm? The blizzard is mentioned continuously in Theon's, Asha's, and Jon's POV. And if I remember correctly, it has stopped in one of Jon's later chapters. If we also take into account the days the Iron Banker needs to get from here to there, wouldn't it be possible to get a timeline for all characters? Or do we have to assume that GRRM would botch those up anyway? I don't have the books with me right now, but maybe it would work?

Jon is hundreds of miles away from them so judging from a snow storm wouldn't be the best solution. I'd say maybe a few weeks to maybe a month passed between this and Jon's last chapter.

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Stannis likes and respects Jon, why in the seven hells would he want to "bring chaos and disarray" to the Watch??? Especially after Jon Gave him almost everything he asked for?? Jon gave him a way to gain 3 thousand men to his cause, I really can't see Stannis repaying him by doing this to the Nights Watch?

Here is a quote from the new Theon chapter,

"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts."

In the quote above, Stannis is referring to the letter in this quote,

" The king plucked a parchment off the table and squinted over it. A letter, Theon knew. Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. "

Obviously the letter is from Jon warning Stannis about Karstark (brought to Stannis by Tycho). Stannis is wanting to send "Arya" to Jon, as a thanks for Jon Warning Stannis. This action does not seem like it would be from a man who is wanting to "bring chaos and disarray" to the Nights Watch. Stannis knows Jon can mean the support of the North why would he want to piss of Jon???

I really can't understand why you would think Stannis would do that.

Stannis would not sacrifice getting the North behind him, just for the few men of the Nights Watch.

Not to mention Stannis knows the Nights Watch is needed to fight the Others, not to fight for him.

I agree that it doesn't make sense for Stannis to have written the Ramsay letter. My point is that there is evidence that he did write it, however. I do not have a theory as to the reason, but I do believe the letter is a fake and that it was a strategic move for Stannis. The intended purpose is not clear. Before reading the Theon chapter, my thoughts were that Bowen Marsh had written the letter. He hated Jon and wanted him dead. Marsh became friends with Janos Slynt, who had been manuevered to be sent to the Wall by Cersei for a plot to kill Jon. So, I assumed the letter was part of this plot.

In ADwD, Tormund says, "Might be all a skin o' lies." (referring to the letter/scroll) and in the first paragraph of the letter the writer instructs Jon to go to Melisandre, "Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore." Which leads me to wonder that if Jon had gone to Melisandre first, would she have told Jon that the letter was a fake?

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I agree that it doesn't make sense for Stannis to have written the Ramsay letter. My point is that there is evidence that he did write it, however. I do not have a theory as to the reason, but I do believe the letter is a fake and that it was a strategic move for Stannis. The intended purpose is not clear. Before reading the Theon chapter, my thoughts were that Bowen Marsh had written the letter. He hated Jon and wanted him dead. Marsh became friends with Janos Slynt, who had been manuevered to be sent to the Wall by Cersei for a plot to kill Jon. So, I assumed the letter was part of this plot.

In ADwD, Tormund says, "Might be all a skin o' lies." (referring to the letter/scroll) and in the first paragraph of the letter the writer instructs Jon to go to Melisandre, "Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore." Which leads me to wonder that if Jon had gone to Melisandre first, would she have told Jon that the letter was a fake?

The lines "Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore." could make sense to be from Stannis if he has executed Theon at the weirwood at had some kind of religious experience afterwards making him a believer in the old gods. He then asks for his family because he cares, Mance's family (to control him) and Melisandre (to get rid of her?). He doesn't want Jon to come to Winterfell - he send "Arya" to the wall so Jon has no reason. A bit unlikely, but possible.

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Ramsays letters, however, seem to be very noticeable in another way:

The brown ink is obviously blood, and it fits Ramsay to write his messages in the blood of one of his victims. About the appearance of the False-King-is-Dead-Letter,unfortunately we are nothing told, however, as discovered in this thread there is a little hint that it is written with ordinary maester's ink:

Where is the quote regarding the large spiky signature of Ramsay? This must be from a different part of the story because the scroll regarding Stannis was signed, "Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell"...and no mention of brown ink or of it flaking away.

Interesting byline, "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell"...

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I agree that it doesn't make sense for Stannis to have written the Ramsay letter. My point is that there is evidence that he did write it, however. I do not have a theory as to the reason, but I do believe the letter is a fake and that it was a strategic move for Stannis. The intended purpose is not clear. Before reading the Theon chapter, my thoughts were that Bowen Marsh had written the letter. He hated Jon and wanted him dead. Marsh became friends with Janos Slynt, who had been manuevered to be sent to the Wall by Cersei for a plot to kill Jon. So, I assumed the letter was part of this plot.

In ADwD, Tormund says, "Might be all a skin o' lies." (referring to the letter/scroll) and in the first paragraph of the letter the writer instructs Jon to go to Melisandre, "Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore." Which leads me to wonder that if Jon had gone to Melisandre first, would she have told Jon that the letter was a fake?

Bowen Marsh saw some logic behind electing Janos Slynt, as did many others, some of whom did not care much for Slynt as a person. Because Marsh came to believe that he could not win, and that Slynt would be the best choice among remaining candidates, he threw his support behind him, but I don't remember reading anything that would indicate he'd befriended Slynt. I also have seen nothing in the text to support your assertion that he hates Jon Snow. He sees different priorities than Jon does, but where do you get this idea that he hates him? None of the men stabbing him, including Marsh, seem eager or happy about it. It seems a bitter chore to them.

ETA: for that matter, it was Tyrion who sent Slynt to the Wall, much to Cersei's dismay, and Tyrion had no intention of Slynt killing Jon. The plot to put Slynt in charge came about later, when Tywin decided it would be best to have a Lannister lackey in charge of the Night's Watch.

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Bowen Marsh saw some logic behind electing Janos Slynt, as did many others, some of whom did not care much for Slynt as a person. Because Marsh came to believe that he could not win, and that Slynt would be the best choice among remaining candidates, he threw his support behind him, but I don't remember reading anything that would indicate he'd befriended Slynt. I also have seen nothing in the text to support your assertion that he hates Jon Snow. He sees different priorities than Jon does, but where do you get this idea that he hates him? None of the men stabbing him, including Marsh, seem eager or happy about it. It seems a bitter chore to them.

ETA: for that matter, it was Tyrion who sent Slynt to the Wall, much to Cersei's dismay, and Tyrion had no intention of Slynt killing Jon. The plot to put Slynt in charge came about later, when Tywin decided it would be best to have a Lannister lackey in charge of the Night's Watch.

Marsh at first is helpful to Jon as Lord Commander, but becomes increasing angry with his decisions such as making Satin his new steward, and later his appointment of a Wilding as the new Master-at-Arms at Castle Black, and allowing Wildlings to join the Watch and diminish the food supply. The scroll is just the final straw for Marsh.

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In adressing Maester Tybald Stannis talks about the great respect he has for maesters and for their vows. Cynical, of course, because he tells Tybald that Ser Clayton will have no such respect.

Stannis says that he had a maester at Dragonstone "that was almost a father to me."

He probably means Maester Cressen, who I recall spoke with love about Stannis and his brothers.

I have to say I was a bit shocked by this line in the Gift Chapter, considering how we know Stannis treated Cressen.

That may be understandable but Stannis treated Cressen not as if that poor old man was almost a father to him.

What do you guys think?

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We know there were two forces slit and sent out after Stannis: one made of Freys and one of Manderlys. Theon stole Arya so Ramsay will be coming as well - or so he figures; he'll want his bride and his Reek back.

Ok, thank you. What I still don't get is why Stannis believes Theon in what Ramsay would do. And I don't get it either. The Freys and Manderlys were sent out in Theon's last chapter in ADWD, right? So we know at least the Freys came back to Winterfell after they were tricked by Mors Umber. So Manderly's group would be expected to retreat as well, wouldn't they? What I don't get is: While or after those groups go and came back to Winterfell, Ramsay will have noticed that 'Arya' is gone. There is fighting between guardsmen and spearwives beneath the Walls and Theon and 'Arya' have been seen jumping the walls. At the same time, Freys fall into holes outside. WHY shouldn't Ramsay immediately set out to get his bride and his Reek back and attack those hole diggers? What is he waiting for? I mean, they are right beneath the walls? And then, after he saw what happened to the Freys, why would he send them out again, and then the Manderly group, and go last himself? Why not rally all those folk together and attack immediately, while they are right outside his castle, where he can regroup and get resources and all kinds of helpful assistance from inside? I don't get it. Why would he wait, and then go after Stannis instead? How does he even know Arya and Theon are with him? And isn't Ramsay the famous girl hunter? Why doesn't he use his dogs to hunt them down right after they escaped? Those Umber boys wouldn't have lasted long in making a stand, right?

Jon is hundreds of miles away from them so judging from a snow storm wouldn't be the best solution. I'd say maybe a few weeks to maybe a month passed between this and Jon's last chapter.

I thought Jon was informed about the weather conditions around Winterfell, he said so when Melisandre told him about seeing snow instead of Stannis. But you are probably right. I don't believe, though, that there has been passed a month between Theon's escape of Winterfell and Ramsay writing his letter. Stannis's people would be dead about then, they couldn't have lasted another week.

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ETA: for that matter, it was Tyrion who sent Slynt to the Wall, much to Cersei's dismay, and Tyrion had no intention of Slynt killing Jon. The plot to put Slynt in charge came about later, when Tywin decided it would be best to have a Lannister lackey in charge of the Night's Watch.

Janos Slynt was known to be corrupted, accepting bribes, and was rewarded for his betrayal of Ned Stark. He was awarded Lordship of Harrenhal for the betrayal and was sitting on the small council when Tyrion arrived. Tyrion stripped him of Harrenhal and sent him to the Wall because of his part in the murder of Robert's bastard, but I believe that Tyrion was unknowingly a part of a Littlefinger plot as Slynt was his man. Osney Kettleblack was orignially going to be the man sent to the Wall by Cersei, but this plan gets nixed when he confesses under torture to the Septon.

I need to find the PoV in ASoS where this is discussed...will post when found. It may have been Lord Tywin's plot to have Slynt a Commander after learning that he was there, but I seem to remember a deliberate plan to send Slynt to the Wall.

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It's not very clear what happens after the Freys fall into the hole but I'm assuming afterwards they regrouped and headed back out. Ramsay probably did set out immediately, after he discovered they were gone, but Mors stood in their way, which could've further delayed them. But then again, did Mors stay or retreat or did he have another trick planned? (It is not known). Also, there's a giant snow storm which isn't the ideal for tracking so either way it would've been tough.

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Where is the quote regarding the large spiky signature of Ramsay? This must be from a different part of the story because the scroll regarding Stannis was signed, "Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell"...and no mention of brown ink or of it flaking away.

Asha thinks about the brown ink and spiky hand when she receives her letter from Ramsay Bolton containing a piece of prince.

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I'm sorry but Stannnis writing the letter does not make sense from a character or story perspective. The letter potentially puts Stannis' family in danger, sets his own men left at the wall at odds with the watch and creates chaos in an area where he needs stability. If he wanted reinforcements he would simply write to Mel to have his knights left at the wall round up some willing and able wildling fighters and head towards Winterfell.

Sometimes it seems like people are trying to be clever and find the convoluted secret so they can claim they knew the whole time on the minuscule chance it comes true rather than what makes sense for the story.

Pretty much this.

My guess on what happened. Stannis whoops the Frey's in the battle of ice. He'll then have the Dreadfort Maester send a raven to Winterfell describing a Frey rout of the Stannis army. Ramsay send the bullshit pink letter afterwards.

It's too bad there won't be POV from what is going on inside Winterfell. How will the bannermen react to Aray not being there anymore? What will happen between Roose and Ramsay?

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