[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 3

[Tini]

All this talk about Stannis...

As much as I like him for his honor and battle tactics, I don't think that his life or death will matter too much in the end, so the truth of Ramsay's letter isn't that big of a deal. I'm pretty certain that Melisandre was wrong about Stannis being Azor Ahai come again, so Stannis has to go away somehow. (This may be off topic now, but Maester Aemon thought that Melisandre misread the signs and intended to go to Dany instead. Personally, I think she misread the signs about Azhor Ahai, but correctly went to Stannis, so that he could bring her to Jon. Will she save Jon? Teach him? Help him? Not sure...but it's not Stannis who she was truly "sent" for.)

I would be very disappointed if Stannis just "went away".

It would be a waste of potential for conflict and doubts if another Azor Ahai candidate shows up. Even if Stannis is not Azor Ahai, he does not have to go away somehow. It doesn't say anywhere that Azor Ahai must be King of westeros. It doesn't say that Stannis must become king, but there still is a place for him in this story even if he is not Azor Ahai. (And, no matter how improbable it may seem, Stannis might actually be Azor Ahai, and Melisandre just muddied the waters by outing him prematurely. But who knows, maybe everybody looking for Azor Ahai is wrong and it turns out that Davos Seaworth is Azor Ahai.)

The only effect that Stannis's death would have right now is that Melisandre loses her justification for staying at the Wall. She would most likely return home thinking she had failed. She would not simply transfer her loyalty to a new Azor Ahai. And King's Landing, free of any threat posed by Stannis in the North, would concentrate fully on facing Aegon. The North would lose another leader of proven potential, and its resistance would crumble as neither Rickon nor Manderly would be able to lead a successful campaign.

[kissdbyfire]

I would be very disappointed if Stannis just "went away".

:agree:

And I agree with all you've said apart from Melisandre going home in shame if she's proven wrong. I think she's a zealot, and I think she would justify her mistake the same way she's justified it before: 'the flames never lie, but the interpretation may be wrong because R'hllor's priests are fallible'.

[Tini]

You are right, probably Melisandre wouldn't go home. She might still leave the Wall, go south to find out what really happened to Stannis, intending to bring him back from the dead. As you say, she's a zealot and Stannis dying might not be enough to shake her belief that he is Azor Ahai reborn.

[Noimporta]

As much as I like him for his honor and battle tactics, I don't think that his life or death will matter too much in the end, so the truth of Ramsay's letter isn't that big of a deal. I'm pretty certain that Melisandre was wrong about Stannis being Azor Ahai come again, so Stannis has to go away somehow.

You know, all the prophecies and mystical mumbo jumbo are just a part of the story. Hell, until now, it has only been a minor part. Stannis as a player keeps the political plot moving and even introduces further conflict when the three candidates for AA are confronted.

[Ghost714]

I would be very disappointed if Stannis just "went away".

It would be a waste of potential for conflict and doubts if another Azor Ahai candidate shows up. Even if Stannis is not Azor Ahai, he does not have to go away somehow. It doesn't say anywhere that Azor Ahai must be King of westeros. It doesn't say that Stannis must become king, but there still is a place for him in this story even if he is not Azor Ahai. (And, no matter how improbable it may seem, Stannis might actually be Azor Ahai, and Melisandre just muddied the waters by outing him prematurely. But who knows, maybe everybody looking for Azor Ahai is wrong and it turns out that Davos Seaworth is Azor Ahai.)

The only effect that Stannis's death would have right now is that Melisandre loses her justification for staying at the Wall. She would most likely return home thinking she had failed. She would not simply transfer her loyalty to a new Azor Ahai. And King's Landing, free of any threat posed by Stannis in the North, would concentrate fully on facing Aegon. The North would lose another leader of proven potential, and its resistance would crumble as neither Rickon nor Manderly would be able to lead a successful campaign.

I have to disagree with you a bit here.

If Melisandre already has doubts that Stannis is AA. Then him "dying" would only confirm her doubts that he is not really AA.

Many readers believe Jon is AA. Which would make sense, because in ADwD when Melisandre asks for a glimpse of Azor Ahai in the flames, R'hllor shows her Jon Snow. So if Melisandre "subconsciously" already knows that Stannis is not AA. Then that could make sense why she stays at the Wall with Jon, instead of marching south with Stannis. And Melisandre even tells Jon that her place is at the Wall with him. Someone could also say that, Mel always trying to help Jon out, with "warnings", and his "sister", is proof she is trying to win him over because "deep down" she knows he is the real AA.

I'm not going to go any further with this, because there are whole forums about it.

My main point though is I do not believe one bit, that if Stannis died then Melisandre would just pack up and go back home to the East. Especially because I believe she already doubts Stannis being the real AA. Same goes for her just hearing about Stannis's death. Mel said her place is at the Wall with Jon, fighting the Others. That's also why she didn't march South with Stannis. She isn't going to just say.... "screw you world, I'm going home".

[Tini]

@ Noimporta: Actually Stannis doesn't even have to do very much to remain in the game. He adds an element of surprise and unpredictability. That sometimes works in favor of his enemies, for example when Renly and Stannis went after each other instead of marching straight for King's Landing. But even if Cersei laughed when she heard that Stannis had gone to the Wall, leaving Storm's End and Dragonstone unprotected, there is always the possibility that Stannis has a plan that might make up for losing those places. As weak as Stannis is, he is not beaten. I expect he'll give the Lannisters, Tyrells, and Aegon some surprises yet.

@ Ghost714, where does it say that Melisandre harbors doubts about Stannis being Azor Ahai? She believes that Jon is important, yes, and elected to stay behind at Castle Black - maybe realizing that she could not offer much assistance to Stannis in his campaign for Winterfell, maybe thinking that Azor Ahai did not heed her assistance for the task. That doesn't mean that she started doubting her interpretation of her visions.

She might not say "Screw you, I'm going home." but as the Azor Ahai prophesy does include rebirths and other stuff, she might decide to go and check what happened if rumors say that Stannis died. She has not seen Stannis much in her visions, but she hasn't seen his death or any direct danger to him, either. Since danger seems to trigger most of her visions, this might be a sign that Stannis is not going to die soon, no matter what we readers think.

[Bran Vras]

Consider the dialogue between Justin and Stannis. First Justin.

The captains of the free companies will join a lord more readily than a mere knight, Your Grace. I hold neither lands nor title, why should they sell their swords to me?

and

"One day Your Grace will need to take the Iron Islands. That will go much easier with Balon Greyjoy's daughter as a catspaw, with one of your own leal men as her lord husband."

"You?" The king scowled. "The woman is wed, Justin."

"A proxy marriage, never consummated. Easily set aside. The groom is old besides. Like to die soon."

Will Justin be tempted to marry "Arya"? Perhaps even to hire the sellswords as the rightful Lord of Winterfell?

[Ghost714]

@ Noimporta: Actually Stannis doesn't even have to do very much to remain in the game. He adds an element of surprise and unpredictability. That sometimes works in favor of his enemies, for example when Renly and Stannis went after each other instead of marching straight for King's Landing. But even if Cersei laughed when she heard that Stannis had gone to the Wall, leaving Storm's End and Dragonstone unprotected, there is always the possibility that Stannis has a plan that might make up for losing those places. As weak as Stannis is, he is not beaten. I expect he'll give the Lannisters, Tyrells, and Aegon some surprises yet.

@ Ghost714, where does it say that Melisandre harbors doubts about Stannis being Azor Ahai? She believes that Jon is important, yes, and elected to stay behind at Castle Black - maybe realizing that she could not offer much assistance to Stannis in his campaign for Winterfell, maybe thinking that Azor Ahai did not heed her assistance for the task. That doesn't mean that she started doubting her interpretation of her visions.

She might not say "Screw you, I'm going home." but as the Azor Ahai prophesy does include rebirths and other stuff, she might decide to go and check what happened if rumors say that Stannis died. She has not seen Stannis much in her visions, but she hasn't seen his death or any direct danger to him, either. Since danger seems to trigger most of her visions, this might be a sign that Stannis is not going to die soon, no matter what we readers think.

I personally don't believe Stannis is going to die anytime soon, and after reading the "gift" chapter released.....I believe Stannis could even end up sitting on the Iron Throne.

But I was not saying the books flat out said that Melisandre has doubts about Stannis being AA. I don't believe Mel would leave if Stannis died. Especially if she already has doubts that he really is AA. And again the book does not actually say Mel has doubts about' Stanny being AA, but many readers do believe there are signs indicative of Melisandre doubting he is AA. I personally believe there could be some truth to that. And "IF" that is the case, then Mel hearing about Stannis being dead would only reassure her "doubt" that he was not the real AA. (the key word is "IF") I'm not saying there is 100% proof of this in the books, but I, and many others believe there is some things that support this theory in the books. Just like any other theory GRRM leaves things open for interpretation.

[Lord Jon Connington]

Btw, does Theon know his father is dead? I reckon Ramsay or even his sister would have told him about it but has it been acknowledged in any Theon chapter that he knows that Balon is dead?

[Ghost714]

Consider the dialogue between Justin and Stannis. First Justin.

and

Will Justin be tempted to marry "Arya"? Perhaps even to hire the sellswords as the rightful Lord of Winterfell?

I think Justin has his eyes set for Asha Greyjoy, as the text indicated . He was just trying to point out reasons why Stannis should keep Asha alive, and with Stannis . The way I read that was, Justin was pointing out the political advantage to Stannis. That way Stannis would consider him being with Asha. I don't think Justin is doing it to gain lands or titles, I think he just wants a taste of Kracken, and if he ends up being socially elevated by hin getting Asha, well then that's an added bonus. So I really do not think there is anything to suggest he would want to Marry "Arya", even if he could. Because you have to remember that "Arya" is married(fake Arya anyway), and the marriage was consummated. So Justin really cant marry her, even if he wanted to, and I dont think he does. Like I said his sights are set on Asha.

[Melifeather]

I've just started reading some of Pearson Moore's essays on the GoT series and he points out that the main story is about "bastards". Each of the main PoV characters are bastards: Jon, Tyrion, Dany, Arya and Bran. Jon is the traditional definition of bastard, Tyrion says dwarfs are bastards to their fathers, Dany is an exiled princesss, as bastard to her kingdom, Arya is a tomboy, a bastard by gender, and Bran is a cripple, a bastard too of sorts. My point in bringing this up is to point out that Ramsay is also a bastard and a reflection to Jon. His struggles could be said to be mirroring Jon's. Jon has been punished each time he turns his attention away from his role as a leader and each time the severity seems to increase. We don't know yet if he will recover from his stabbing by Bowen Marsh, but if he does, he'll probably be reborn of Ice. I'm trying to apply Moore's analysis to Ramsay to predict his outcome. Moore may have already analysed this, but I haven't read that far into his essays yet, but it does shed new light on the topic.

[Bran Vras]

I think Justin has his eyes set for Asha Greyjoy, as the text indicated . He was just trying to point out reasons why Stannis should keep Asha alive, and with Stannis . The way I read that was, Justin was pointing out the political advantage to Stannis. That way Stannis would consider him being with Asha. I don't think Justin is doing it to gain lands or titles, I think he just wants a taste of Kracken, and if he ends up being socially elevated by hin getting Asha, well then that's an added bonus. So I really do not think there is anything to suggest he would want to Marry "Arya", even if he could. Because you have to remember that "Arya" is married(fake Arya anyway), and the marriage was consummated. So Justin really cant marry her, even if he wanted to, and I dont think he does. Like I said his sights are set on Asha.

It is probably true that Justin is attracted to Asha. But in Westeros, that's little reason to propose marriage. People marry foremost for the social situation. Personal attraction is secondary (recall the proposal of Hyle Hunt to Brienne). Justin does not seem likely to lose his head over a crush. I maintain that the reasoning of Justin concerning Asha applies about as well to Arya (heir to a Great House cut off from her family, dubious marriage, husband possibly dead soon).

[Tini]

Yes, people marry for the social situation. I don't think that Justin is of high enough rank to have any hope of marrying the heir of a Great House. Arya Stark is out of his league.

[Bran Vras]

Arya Stark is out of his league.

True under normal circumstances. If Stannis succeeds in his quest for the Iron Throne, Justin Massey has his chance. Witness how Littlefinger managed to wed Lysa Tully, after all.

[Eddward Stark]

Even if Stannis is not Azor Ahai, he does not have to go away somehow. It doesn't say anywhere that Azor Ahai must be King of westeros. It doesn't say that Stannis must become king, but there still is a place for him in this story even if he is not Azor Ahai.

I think that stubborn Stannis has made it clear that he would not accept any role other than King of the Seven Kingdoms.

If he does not become the one and only rightful king, I don't see what else he would or could be. (I can't see him serving as an adviser for a Targaryen.) So I think something must happen to him in order for the story to progress, for better or for worse.... That being said, I think he's an amazing character and enjoy very much what he brings to the story.

[Sanctume]

I think these all in Mel's plans, or forseen in her fires:

1. Mel sends and advices Stannis to Winterfell, and tells him how he seen him his death (fake) can get him inside and win.

2. Mance is Mel's puppet, and Mel forsees the opportunity to use a pink letter (using Mance) from Winterfell to Jon in the Wall which leads to 3.

3. Mel saw in her fire how Jon reacts with the subject line "Arya" and Mel does her magic to remove Jon from his NW bonds thru another death (fake).

[bemused]

I haven't read back, but wasn't Justin jostling for a chance at Val ( and a land grant in the gift) before Stannis took him south ? All his lands in the south are forfeit. That was one of the reasons men were willing to follow Stannis north..to win new holdings..recompense for what they'd lost by supporting him in the first place.

I definitely think he'd put a move on "Arya", in the hope Ramsay will be knocked off. And she is pretty , if she gets to keep her nose.

It would be a fun wrinkle if no-one recognized Jeyne 'til after the fact. ( But poor Jeyne )

How long will she and Theon hold their tongues ? If she gets to the Wall while Jon is incapacitated, Selyse might try to marry her off in a " Red Rahloo " ceremony..;)

[Ghost714]

True under normal circumstances. If Stannis succeeds in his quest for the Iron Throne, Justin Massey has his chance. Witness how Littlefinger managed to wed Lysa Tully, after all.

I'm not saying Justin getting to marry Arya is impossible, but I do find it highly improbable.

"Serve me well in this matter of the sellswords, and you may have what you desire.  Until such time, the woman must needs remain my captive."

So Stannis never even said Massey can for sure have Asha, let alone Arya Stark "heir" to Winterfell.

But just for fun, let's pretend Stannis would be cool with Massey marrying Arya.

(Number one), she is not even the real Arya. (Number two), Bran, Rickon, or Sansa could come back in to the picture making Arya(fake or not fake), useless as far as being the Heir to Winterfell. If that happened, why would Massey want to marry Arya, over Asha. Again assuming Stannis let's him marry either one.

[LadyMary]

I'm sorry but Stannnis writing the letter does not make sense from a character or story perspective. The letter potentially puts Stannis' family in danger, sets his own men left at the wall at odds with the watch and creates chaos in an area where he needs stability. If he wanted reinforcements he would simply write to Mel to have his knights left at the wall round up some willing and able wildling fighters and head towards Winterfell.

Sometimes it seems like people are trying to be clever and find the convoluted secret so they can claim they knew the whole time on the minuscule chance it comes true rather than what makes sense for the story.

There are interesting questions raised by the letter that don't rely on Stannis suddenly deciding he just loves chaos.

The wax was pink but there was no seal suggesting the author(Ramsey) was either physically separated from Roose or it was written without Roose's permission. If Roose was simply killed Ramsey could have claimed the seal. This could mean the letter was written outside of Winterfell which would necessitate having a raven trained to fly to the wall or fighting in Winterfell isolated the author or simply the author could be acting on his own. Personally I think Ramsey wrote the letter but the panicked and angry tone and lack of seal means things aren't as he would like Jon to believe.

(Mine own emphasis). This - is exactly how it sounded to me. I think things are going badly on the field of battle for the Bolton forces, or more likely within Winterfell. Roose is cavalier about Ramsay but not stupid. Somehow, it seems Ramsay and Roose are not in accord on what's happening. It may be that Ramsay tortured information out of the Spearwives and thus knows Mance's true identity. If Mance were still in his custody, does it seem likely that Ramsay would keep him hanging in a cage with skins rather than impaled or skinned alive? What benefit does it serve to keep him alive?

I think Ramsay wrote an angry letter full of crazy to Jon Snow because he doesn't have all the facts. He obviously knows about the plan to send Mance to find and retrieve Arya and probably heard about Stannis, his sword, the Queen and Princess, Melisandre, the Wildling princess and Mance's son. But all that could have been learned through interrogation of one or more spearwives. If "Abel can take care of himself" I think it's possible Mance managed to hide out or get out of Winterfell. If Ramsay had really defeated Stannis and taken his head and sword, surely he would have known what became of his bride and "Reek" who he assumes are at the Wall. The fact that he doesn't makes me think he's bluffing about what's happening in the battle itself.

I think Ramsay's smear of pink wax is because his father forbade him to write to Jon Snow, or Ramsay is out of touch with his father somehow and doesn't have access to a seal. Maybe Roose sent him back to the Dreadfort to wait, or Ramsay was going somewhere else in a hurry -too much to use blood rather than ink, and too impulsive to leave it be - without making threats. I defintely think Ramsay wrote it and parts of the letter were induced by panic and full of lies.

[Eddward Stark]

1. Mel sends and advices Stannis to Winterfell, and tells him how he seen him his death (fake) can get him inside and win.

I'm not quite sure what you mean, but it is an interesting notion that Stannis could now quite easily fake his death for a military advantage.

Stannis has the Dreadfort's maester (who is a proven coward and would likely do whatever he's forced to do), in addition to 2 ravens meant for Winterfell. He could have the maester write whatever he wants, put Karstark's seal on it, and send it to Ramsay. Perhaps Stannis will survive after all. :)