[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 3

[Tini]

You have an extremely unreasonable view of Jon's actions, methinks. He was prepared to treat with the Lannisters in so far as reality would allow him, considering Stannis was present at the Wall and outnumbered him. It was Tywin and Cersei to decided to mess around with the Watch; putting one of the most incompetent men in the kingdom in charge of their ranks and later, when that didn't work, try to organise his assassination.

No, I don't have an unreasonable view of Jon'S actions.

The Lannisters were not willing to deal with Jon, so the failure to deal with the Lannisters was not only on Jon's side. But this could be easily predicted even before Jon was chosen Lord Commander. Choosing Jon after accepting help from Stannis (and helping Stannis in return) was a slap in the face of the Lannisters, and it is known what Lannisters do to people who oppose them. If the Watch had chosen another person, any other person, the Lannisters might not have reacted the way they did. The Lannisters didn't plan to put Slynt in charge of the Watch when they sent him to the Wall. They only got involved after they heard that Jon had been chosen Lord Commander.

The Lord Commander has to be someone who can speak with nobles, and is respected by them. It's called politics. That is the reason why Cotter Pyke was not acceptable as LC. Jon was of sufficient rank to speak to nobles, but his family ties assured that King Tommen's advisers would refuse to speak to him, would not accept him. That is why I say that Jon is the worst choice they could have made at a time when such communication was vital. As LC Jon was otherwise quite able.

Peasant Rebel Leader, Jon did not fail to make friends among the Watch. He did have friends, and there were brothers he trusted, brothers who could be trusted. They might even be the majority of the Watch. But Jon assigned them important tasks, tasks that took them away from Castle Black. He was left with those he could not trust. He thought they could do no harm back at Castle Black. He was wrong.

[Ser Arthyr Dracenstein]

he should have gone to Melisandre privately with Ramsay's letter before spontaneously announcing his intention to march south

And be seen as Melisandre's puppet? And Melisandre undermined him earlier when she linked arms with him earlier. His men saw that and Jon knew they would be talking that in their barracks that night.

I think Mel was doing this deliberately, maybe trying to make sure what she saw in the fires come to pass for reasons she isn't really understanding herself.

[Lord Martin]

@ Lord of Autumn's End:

Re: The Letter

Sure, Ramsay is the most likely candidate to be the author. But would you bet your life on it? GRRM loves his curve balls and this one is ripe for deception. Most of the important letters in ASOIF are summarized for us. We rarely see the full text. Lysa's letter to Cat about John Arryn, Tywin's, Roose and Walder's Red Wedding Letters were only alluded to, Doran Martell learning about Visery's death... its sort of odd that we get the full letter. Also, no flayed skin, and he had possible sources in Mance and the Spearwives, or so the letter claims. Also, we have no direct evidence that Ramsay knows about Mance, but I'd concede he could easily and reasonably find out.

Ramsay just seems too easy an answer and in this world, the obvious answers are seldom correct ones.

[SmokD]

Just found this forum, had to make an account just to reply to this thread. In regard to the pink letter, there are a lot of theories of who wrote it. Ramsay, Stannis, Asha, Theon to name a few. But personally I just don't buy it. The letter has too many details that none of them know. How many people really know that Mance is alive beyond Jon, Melisandre, and Mance himself? We know it was not Jon who wrote the letter, Melisandre really has nothing to gain from sending the letter(probably), which leaves Mance himself. He is in the prime position to know everything that was in the letter. He is in winterfell and has access to the wax, he obviously knows he is alive, and he spied around Winterfell long enough to understand how Ramsay thinks well enough to forge the letter in Ramsay's Name. I think it's all a ploy to somehow try and get his son back.

[FanTasy]

GRRM loves his curve balls and this one is ripe for deception. Most of the important letters in ASOIF are summarized for us. We rarely see the full text. Lysa's letter to Cat about John Arryn, Tywin's, Roose and Walder's Red Wedding Letters were only alluded to, Doran Martell learning about Visery's death... its sort of odd that we get the full letter. Also, no flayed skin, and he had possible sources in Mance and the Spearwives, or so the letter claims.

Nice catch that we are deliberately fed the text here! Haven't thought about this before :bang:

About no skin attachment: I think the first letter had a different purpose. The attachment was send to the relatives of Theon.

Why send a piece of skin of the spearwifes to Jon?

I don't suppose the Boltons as a standard adjust a skin attachment to all their letters. :frown5:

[Peasant Rebel Leader]

@LoAE Yes, I did not reread the scene right now and I am only speaking out of memory, but you only seem to prove my point that Jon Snow was a bad commander. He shouldn't have made Satin his Steward, he should make compromises with the other Elite, he should ask them to support or otherwise step down. In the end, he was just blind to the danger.

On the second point, of course a leader should not always do what is popular, but what is reasonable. However it's not that simple and the answer is always in the middle. Take Stannis f.e., he's unwielding but manages to convince his followers to follow him up to the Wall, even if it's mainly Rhollor and Mel that bring the legitimacy to do that strange and irrational, but genius move. The legal position may grant you following, but the more you rely on that, the more the performance sinks probably. Unhappy and unconvinced people work worse. So yes, it needs both I think we both agree. And Jon in my opinion was lacking strongly on the charisma with his own people, mainly because he sent those who supported him away (will they come back now?).

And the last paragraph, you got me wrong. I wans't talking about bringing the NW down to Winterfell, I was talking about him discussing bringing the WIldlings on the South Side of the Wall with his brothers. We didn't have a scene where he discussed it with the elite and we didn't have one where we spoke to the soldiers, right? (I'm asking) Considering that there was just a huge battle with the Wildlings, this seems strange... But I need to reread the book first ;)

@Tini yes, my line "he has no friends in the Watch" was more meant like "he did send them away".. Should have phrased that better. Completely agree.

[Ladywhiskers]

The gods sure are taking a dump on Jeyne. I don't know if she will bump into Arya but people have been saying Arya would not kill her because she wouldn't hate her that much despite the bullying she got from Jeyne. I agree, but she could kill her for other reasons.

Jeyne has had her family wiped out, sent to a brothel, trained to be someone else, then sent to marry Ramsay( which would make everything else she has suffered so far seem like a holiday.), then in her escape she gets used to break theons fall(lol), and looks like she might loose her nose or part of it. If Arya learns all this she might decided Jeyne is worthy of the "gift".

I don't think Arya would impose an unwanted mercy killing on anyone. If Jeyne asked her, or if she came upon her in the act of attempting suicide, that might be different, but I can't see Arya deciding for Jeyne that her life had been too hard and wouldn't get better--all her training has been about keeping her from making those sorts of judgments on her own.

I could see Sansa wanting to kill Jeyne for an instant if she finds out, but their old friendship would probably trump that impulse. And it's greatly in LF's interests to make certain that they never do meet. Jon Snow might be inclined to want to kill a false Arya, but I think before he did, he'd find out as much as he could about what she was doing and for whom, and probably this would take the edge off of any ill will towards Jeyne.

[slayer420]

Just found this forum, had to make an account just to reply to this thread. In regard to the pink letter, there are a lot of theories of who wrote it. Ramsay, Stannis, Asha, Theon to name a few. But personally I just don't buy it. The letter has too many details that none of them know. How many people really know that Mance is alive beyond Jon, Melisandre, and Mance himself? We know it was not Jon who wrote the letter, Melisandre really has nothing to gain from sending the letter(probably), which leaves Mance himself. He is in the prime position to know everything that was in the letter. He is in winterfell and has access to the wax, he obviously knows he is alive, and he spied around Winterfell long enough to understand how Ramsay thinks well enough to forge the letter in Ramsay's Name. I think it's all a ploy to somehow try and get his son back.

Well welcome to the board. I have a crack pot theoy about the letter that I havent heard anyone say yet. Who knows all that info in the letter? Who could send a raven and make it go where ever. How about Bloodraven/bran. They would know all that stuff in the letter and could send a raven to the wall. Maybe they needed to get Jon out of the night watch and knew this would do it. I know its crazy. OK time for you guys to tear it apart.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Well welcome to the board. I have a crack pot theoy about the letter that I havent heard anyone say yet. Who knows all that info in the letter? Who could send a raven and make it go where ever. How about Bloodraven/bran. They would know all that stuff in the letter and could send a raven to the wall. Maybe they needed to get Jon out of the night watch and knew this would do it. I know its crazy. OK time for you guys to tear it apart.

I don’t see little Bran doing such a treacherous thing to his own (supposed) brother, but I wouldn’t put it past Lord Brynden, whilom Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. Hm, I guess that makes Jon and Brynden brothers in the Watch. Interesting.

[slayer420]

Remember Bran can now see the past and future. So if he saw that Jon needed to leave the wall and this was the only way. Not sure on the why yet thougth.I will have to think more on it. The raven was talking alot and keep saying King jon snow. something to think about.

[Free Northman]

Remember Bran can now see the past and future. So if he saw that Jon needed to leave the wall and this was the only way. Not sure on the why yet thougth.I will have to think more on it.

For the record, I don't think it was Bran.

But as to the reason why Jon had to leave the Watch, that's easy - it is to enable him to assume his destiny as Rhaegar's heir and Azor Ahai Reborn.

[Lord of Autumn's End]

The Lannisters were not willing to deal with Jon, so the failure to deal with the Lannisters was not only on Jon's side. But this could be easily predicted even before Jon was chosen Lord Commander. Choosing Jon after accepting help from Stannis (and helping Stannis in return) was a slap in the face of the Lannisters, and it is known what Lannisters do to people who oppose them. If the Watch had chosen another person, any other person, the Lannisters might not have reacted the way they did. The Lannisters didn't plan to put Slynt in charge of the Watch when they sent him to the Wall. They only got involved after they heard that Jon had been chosen Lord Commander.

It is well known that the Watch considers who a man was before he took his oaths to be irrelevant. Obviously the Lannister's don't see it the same way, but that is still the law/principle on which the Watch is founded. You can call it being unrealistic if you want, but the fact remains that the Lannisters were the ones who were letting their personal baggage get in the way, Jon was initially willing to deal in good faith. It was typical Lannister power hunger that led to them believing that they had any right to decide or even influence who the NW elected.

And, as I mentioned previously, from where I sit the odds are good that if anyone else was chosen (and Janos Slynt was the next strongest contender, remember) they wouldn't have had Jon's knowledge of and willingness to negotiate with the wildlings. That's of more immediate importance being in the good graces of a ruler who is half the continent away, in the middle of a war and doesn't take the threat of the Others seriously. Honestly, you're giving the need to cozy up to Lannisters

far too much credit here; whether Jon or Slynt was elected the Lannisters would never have taken their plight seriously. And the Wildlings Jon allied with would certainly be worth more than the handfuls of prisoners the Lannisters would have turned over to them, especially since recruiting the Wildlings means less wights north of the Wall.

The Lord Commander has to be someone who can speak with nobles, and is respected by them. It's called politics. That is the reason why Cotter Pyke was not acceptable as LC. Jon was of sufficient rank to speak to nobles, but his family ties assured that King Tommen's advisers would refuse to speak to him, would not accept him. That is why I say that Jon is the worst choice they could have made at a time when such communication was vital. As LC Jon was otherwise quite able.

You're failing to take into account that only the nobles of the North, barring the occasional aberration, give a damn about the Night's Watch. The Northern lords are the only ones he stood a chance of winning to his cause. Remember the discussion Tywin and the Small Council had:

Tyrion remembered his own visit to the Wall, and the crabs he'd shared with old Lord Mormont and his officers. He remembered the Old Bear's

fears as well. "Perhaps we might break the knees of a few to make our point. Those who killed Ser Jacelyn, say. The rest we can send to Marsh. The Watch is grievously under strength. If the Wall should fail..."

"... the wildlings will flood the north," his father finished, "and the Starks and Greyjoys will have another enemy to contend with. They no longer wish to be subject to the Iron Throne, it would seem, so by what right do they look to the Iron Throne for aid? King Robb and King Balon both claim the north. Let them defend it, if they can. And if not, this Mance Rayder might even prove a useful ally." Lord Tywin looked to his brother. "Is there more?"

I think this shows their attitude towards the Watch very nicely. By the way, this is before Jon was elected LC.

And be seen as Melisandre's puppet? And Melisandre undermined him earlier when she linked arms with him earlier. His men saw that and Jon knew they would be talking that in their barracks that night.

I think Mel was doing this deliberately, maybe trying to make sure what she saw in the fires come to pass for reasons she isn't really understanding herself.

He would only be seen as her puppet if he was seen entering her quarters and announced to the Watch what the message was about and that he was soliciting her council. Which, you know, didn't necessarily have to be the case.

Sure, Ramsay is the most likely candidate to be the author. But would you bet your life on it?

Considering that Jon would almost certainly be betting his life on whatever decision he made, yes, if I was in his shoes I would. The stakes do not change the fact that it is still beyond reasonable doubt sent by Ramsay.

[DragonSpawn]

I believe that Theon will take the Black... knowing that Jon is LC is something he has considered before... and thought was probably a good move... until Ramsey got involved...

I don't know if it is necessary for Theon to be at the wall to take his vows in front of the weirwood / heart tree... is there still a black brother with Stannis that could oversee the vows? (Is it necessary if BR is an old LC?)My theory is that the vows will protect Theon from dying if he is killed in front of the heart tree... he will be born again as a sentient WW... he has kings blood too - very powerful stuff... also his blood sacrafice to the tree... as the blood touches the roots i'm guessing that will mean Bran and Bloodraven will be able 'see' Theons life... and every detail... after that they may be able to create the letter with enough detail to convince Jon to attack Winterfell with the Wildlings... My guess is Asha wrote the letter... as she is the only one who has seen a letter sent by Ramsey with her brothers skin in it IIRC... so she knows how he writes... she may even still be carrying the letter so can use it for reference?

[brashcandy]

General question: Does Stannis have any idea about what is happening in Essos - the fact that Dany has dragons, and eventually plans to conquer Westeros? His thoughts on Viserys makes me think he is destined to be sitting chilling at the Wall when the beggar king's namesake dragon comes calling.

[Lord of Autumn's End]

@LoAE Yes, I did not reread the scene right now and I am only speaking out of memory, but you only seem to prove my point that Jon Snow was a bad commander. He shouldn't have made Satin his Steward, he should make compromises with the other Elite, he should ask them to support or otherwise step down. In the end, he was just blind to the danger.

Stop picking and choosing to address the points of my post that only support your belief. My post made the case that the overwhelming majority of his decisions were the correct ones. You can't point at Jon making Satin his steward and/or his refusal to appoint bodyguards for himself and say that those two points prove he's a bad commander when pretty much every other decision he made was the best one available.

On the second point, of course a leader should not always do what is popular, but what is reasonable. However it's not that simple and the answer is always in the middle. Take Stannis f.e., he's unwielding but manages to convince his followers to follow him up to the Wall, even if it's mainly Rhollor and Mel that bring the legitimacy to do that strange and irrational, but genius move. The legal position may grant you following, but the more you rely on that, the more the performance sinks probably. Unhappy and unconvinced people work worse. So yes, it needs both I think we both agree. And Jon in my opinion was lacking strongly on the charisma with his own people, mainly because he sent those who supported him away (will they come back now?).

No, you aren't understanding what I'm saying. A leader is supposed to be obeyed because of their legal authority/position. Not their personal skills. The best leaders are people who have both, but even if they don't you are still supposed to follow their orders. The only exceptions are where the leader is morally corrupt (such as Joffrey, Gregor Clegane or Janos Slynt), or has no idea what they're doing (such as Janos Slynt or a two year old).

And the last paragraph, you got me wrong. I wans't talking about bringing the NW down to Winterfell, I was talking about him discussing bringing the WIldlings on the South Side of the Wall with his brothers. We didn't have a scene where he discussed it with the elite and we didn't have one where we spoke to the soldiers, right? (I'm asking) Considering that there was just a huge battle with the Wildlings, this seems strange... But I need to reread the book first ;)

We did. I've already quoted part of it for you, but here it is again:

“Thousands of enemies. Thousands of wildlings.”

Thousands of people, Jon thought. Men, women, children. Anger rose inside him, but when he spoke his voice was quiet and cold. “Are you so blind, or is it that you do not wish to see? What do you think will happen when all these enemies are dead?”

Above the door the raven muttered, “Dead, dead, dead.”

“Let me tell you what will happen,” Jon said. “The dead will rise again, in their hundreds and their thousands. They will rise as wights, with black hands and pale blue eyes, and they will come for us.” He pushed himself to his feet, the fingers of his sword hand opening and closing. “You have my leave to go.”

Jon is explaining that its better to bring the wildlings south and ally with them so that -

a ) They have more men & women at their disposal.

b )They won't have to fight as many wights.

EDIT: And no, Jon didn't discuss it with the rest of the men because he's not supposed to. He's the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, not Chief of the Senate. The Watch is not a democracy, except for choosing their leaders. He takes the advice of the highest ranking officers, but he doesn't do the same for the cooks and recruits.

[Lord Martin]

I'm not convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that the letter is from Ramsay.

I like the Mance idea. Has anyone noticed the parallels with the Bael the Bard tale?

Mance takes the name Abel, an anagram for Bael.

Both were King Beyond the Wall

Abel and Bael travel to Winterfell under false pretenses

Both plan to take Lord/King Stark's daughter.

Bael ends up with a son that becomes the next ruling Stark

Abel (Mance) has a son he wants to get back/protect

It would be sort of full circle if Mance tried to seize Winterfell by taking "Arya."

All that said, its probably Ramsay after he received a false report by letter and/or from Manderly. But it is fun to speculate otherwise.

[kissdbyfire]

I like the Mance idea. Has anyone noticed the parallels with the Bael the Bard tale?

I've always seen these paralles as Mance's sense of humour... :cool4:

[CrypticWeirwood]

[Lord Commander Jon Snow] shouldn't have made Satin his Steward

Whyever in the world not? Just to appease old-school stick-in-the-muds like Bowen Marsh? That makes no more sense than saying Jon shouldn’t have been elected Lord Commander because he’s an acknowledged bastard, or that Jon shouldn’t have made Leathers master-at-arms because Leathers is a wilding. That is to say, it makes no sense whatsoever.

Apart from the Wildlings and the late Lord Commander Mormont, Jon is one of the few extant members of the Night’s Watch — and certainly the most highly placed — who understands that the only true and pressing purpose of the Watch is to defend the realms of Men from the inimical inhuman invaders known as the Others.

Nothing else matters. Jon knows this. Jon knows that the measure of a man’s worth is unrelated to the station of his birth, or his past. His detractors like Marsh and Sellador do not, which makes them a danger to the Watch’s mission.

As far back as A Storm of Swords, Satin more than acquitted himself as Jon’s brother in the Watch. Satin swore his vows to the Old Gods before the weirwoods, just as Jon himself had earlier done. Bowen Marsh has shown that he has poor judgement, back when he supported Janos Slynt.

Dealing out appeasement and compromise to someone whose base motives and intentions are so clearly in the wrong will get you nowhere but defeat. Just as Neville Chamberlain how well that policy worked out for him when he applied it. Jon is doing the right thing, for the right reasons. The rest of them can get stuffed.

[Melifeather]

Possible, but the fact that he had tears in his eyes when he stabs Jon kinda suggests a lack of resentment.

I think his tears stem from his fear that he's just assassinated the Lord Commander! And perhaps was forced to do so by someone else???

[Melifeather]

Why? Those might be tears of frustration and anger, not of sadness. He might kill Jon for the Watch, and resent Jon for forcing hom into that action.

Maybe Bowen Marsh is not as dumb/incompetent as I always thought him.

Bowen Marsh is partial to the Night's Watch. This prevents true neutrality. Like Jon, Bowen Marsh is trying to protect the Night's Watch. He supported Slynt knowing of Slynt's association with Tywin Lannister - Tywin who was likely to come out of the current war victorious. That doesn't necessarily make Bowen Marsh a Lannister supporter. Jon and Maester Aemon constructed a paper shield to keep the Watch safe after accepting help from Stannis Baratheon. Bowen Marsh didn't try to use a paper shield, he tried to shield the Watch by supporting Slynt. Slynt as Lord Commander might have proved a better shield than Aemon's letter.

True, Slynt would have killed Jon. But choosing a Lannister man as LC might have shown Tywin Lannister that the Night's Watch was not supporting Stannis Baratheon's bid for the throne, despite the fact that they were currently hosting what was left of Stannis' forces. If you cannot achieve true neutrality by staying out of Westerosi affairs completely (which is impossible), it can still be achieved by treating equally with all sides in the conflict. The Watch was indebted to Stannis for saving them from the Wildlings. Bowen Marsh tried to balance the scales by making Slynt the next LC. He failed, and Jon was chosen instead.

Bowen Marsh did not know Stannis was on his way to help with the Wildlings, and Jon was LC before Stannis arrived.