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[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 3


Angalin

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The Bowen Marsh situation is quite simple.

He stated to Jon that the Watch was getting too close to Stannis, who had a snowball's chance in hell of winning the Iron Throne. At the same time, Marsh was insinuating that they should rather ally with the strongest Houses in the realm in order to give the Watch the best possible chance of defending the Wall.

The representative of that power (the Lannisters), in the north, is Roose Bolton, the Warden of the North.

Hence, the moment Jon read the letter which stated that Stannis was dead, Marsh decided that if the Watch was to be saved, it had to throw itself on the mercy of Roose Bolton and distance itself as much as possible from the disastrous alliance with Stannis.

The only way he saw to achieve this, was to assassinate the Lord Commander who made the allliance with Stannis.

Marsh was acting out of desperation. His judgement was wrong, but he believed what he was doing was the best for the Watch.

It will prove to be a terrible decision, but he will have to pay the price for his inability to see the bigger picture as Jon saw it.

Especially once Ramsay's victory proves either false, or shortlived.

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Has anyone noticed the parallels with the Bael the Bard tale?

Mance takes the name Abel, an anagram for Bael.

Both were King Beyond the Wall

Abel and Bael travel to Winterfell under false pretenses

Both plan to take Lord/King Stark's daughter.

Bael ends up with a son that becomes the next ruling Stark

Abel (Mance) has a son he wants to get back/protect

Yes, and I wonder what will become of little Aemon. Did anyone pick up any reference that Jon informed Mance about that Gilly took his son with her and not her own? Does he know? Does Val know?

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@ Lord of Autumn's End:

Re: The Letter

Sure, Ramsay is the most likely candidate to be the author. But would you bet your life on it? GRRM loves his curve balls and this one is ripe for deception. Most of the important letters in ASOIF are summarized for us. We rarely see the full text. Lysa's letter to Cat about John Arryn, Tywin's, Roose and Walder's Red Wedding Letters were only alluded to, Doran Martell learning about Visery's death... its sort of odd that we get the full letter. Also, no flayed skin, and he had possible sources in Mance and the Spearwives, or so the letter claims. Also, we have no direct evidence that Ramsay knows about Mance, but I'd concede he could easily and reasonably find out.

Ramsay just seems too easy an answer and in this world, the obvious answers are seldom correct ones.

I think you are right about GRRM loving his curve balls. I refer you to his interview with EW.com: http://shelf-life.ew.com/2011/07/21/dance-with-dragons-shocking-twist-g/

EW.com: I also wasn’t sure whether Ramsay was telling the truth in his letter when he said the battle had already been fought and won, whether we were supposed to take that as gospel.

GRRM: My readers should know better than to take anything as gospel, unless they see it for themselves, and even then I do sometimes use “unreliable narrator.” No. They should not take that as the truth. What about Mance Rayder, did you think he was really dead?

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You should probably re-read the last few chapters that relate to the wall in ASoS

I know now I made a mistake on this one! I was surprised that I had to refer all the way back to A Storm of Swords page 1026 (paperback). LOL

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Yes, and I wonder what will become of little Aemon. Did anyone pick up any reference that Jon informed Mance about that Gilly took his son with her and not her own? Does he know? Does Val know?

Val knows for sure, don't know if Mance does...

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Quoting the words of GRRM, and my understanding of them, I do not think Jon is dead, and I do not believe Stannis was defeated by Ramsay. http://shelf-life.ew.com/2011/07/21/dance-with-dragons-shocking-twist-g/

ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY: So why did you kill Jon Snow?

GEORGE R.R. MARTIN: Oh, you think he’s dead, do you?

Well, I guess. Yes. That’s how I took it. The way it was written, it sounded like he was mortally wounded — and, you know, it’s you!

Well. I’m not going to address whether he’s dead or not. But as to why — didn’t you think the text established why they would want to assassinate him?

EW: Ialso wasn’t sure whether Ramsay was telling the truth in his letter when he said the battle had already been fought and won, whether we were supposed to take that as gospel.

GRRM: My readers should know better than to take anything as gospel, unless they see it for themselves, and even then I do sometimes use “unreliable narrator.” No. They should not take that as the truth. What about Mance Rayder, did you think he was really dead?

So...lets assume Ramsay DID write the letter, but either lied Stannis was defeated or assumed Stannis was defeated (possibly fake defeat by Manderleys), what did he hope to accomplish?

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Quoting the words of GRRM, and my understanding of them, I do not think Jon is dead, and I do not believe Stannis was defeated by Ramsay. http://shelf-life.ew...ocking-twist-g/

ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY: So why did you kill Jon Snow?

GEORGE R.R. MARTIN: Oh, you think he’s dead, do you?

Well, I guess. Yes. That’s how I took it. The way it was written, it sounded like he was mortally wounded — and, you know, it’s you!

Well. I’m not going to address whether he’s dead or not. But as to why — didn’t you think the text established why they would want to assassinate him?

EW: Ialso wasn’t sure whether Ramsay was telling the truth in his letter when he said the battle had already been fought and won, whether we were supposed to take that as gospel.

GRRM: My readers should know better than to take anything as gospel, unless they see it for themselves, and even then I do sometimes use “unreliable narrator.” No. They should not take that as the truth. What about Mance Rayder, did you think he was really dead?

So...lets assume Ramsay DID write the letter, but either lied Stannis was defeated or assumed Stannis was defeated (possibly fake defeat by Manderleys), what did he hope to accomplish?

Here's a new thought. Ramsay is desperate, holed up in Winterfell, and has discovered Mance.

Mance, however, has been playing both sides, and Mance tells Ramsay that he can offer him thousands of wildling swords if Ramsay gets him his wife and child back.

So Ramsay needs hostages against Stannis's remaining forces - hence his need for Selyse and Shireen, and he needs the thousands of swords Mance can supposedly offer, and hence his request for Mance's family.

I don't have this romantic hero vision of Mance, that many on the board seem to have. He is an outlaw, and will do whatever it takes to achieve his goals. If that means screwing Jon, he will do so in a heartbeat.

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Here's a new thought. Ramsay is desperate, holed up in Winterfell, and has discovered Mance.

Mance, however, has been playing both sides, and Mance tells Ramsay that he can offer him thousands of wildling swords if Ramsay gets him his wife and child back.

While I do agree with most of this idea.. this is Ramsay we're talking about! He's as subtle as a hot spear jammed up one's ass. Especially in a situation that needs some diplomacy

If he did meet w/ Mance, the second any info of hows and whys Mance was in Winterfell was even breathed - Ramsay would have flayed Mance to shreds!

so then, keeping that in mind, how exactly would Mance still be intact enough to share so much info thats in the letter? Also, pretty sure it would come with some skin. Ramsay loves to break his toys and send pieces out

Now if Mance maybe met Roose .... or Lady Dustin for that matter...

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hile I do agree with most of this idea.. this is Ramsay we're talking about! He's as subtle as a hot spear jammed up one's ass. Especially in a situation that needs some diplomacy

If he did meet w/ Mance, he second the info of hows and whys Mance was in Winterfell was even breathed - Ramsay would have flayed Mance to shreds!

so then, keeping that in mind, how exactly would Mance still be intact enough to share so much info thats in the letter? Also, pretty sure it would come with some skin. Ramsay loves to break his toys and send pieces out

Now if Mance maybe met Roose .....

Ramsay has returned from the battle at the lake with his tail between his legs. He's lost 2000 Freys, and the Manderlys have deserted with all their power. He is trapped in Winterfell with maybe 2000 men left, and he has lost his bride.

In short, he is desperate.

As for Mance, think about it from his point of view. Why would he want to ally with a nearly powerless Jon, when he could have the Warden of the North and the power of the Iron Throne ensuring a home for him and his wildlings in the North.

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In short, he is desperate.

As for Mance, think about it from his point of view. Why would he want to ally with a nearly powerless Jon, when he could have the Warden of the North and the power of the Iron Throne ensuring a home for him and his wildlings in the North.

On his good days Ramsay is as stable as wildfire, but if he's gone out and lost a major event like Stannis battle?! He is even more dangerous then!! Now saying not just the wrong word, but the wrong inhaling noise near him can easily cost one a life

Mance might leave a few lil "tricks" behind and hightail it outta there just as quickly, if he got any brains

There's gotta be a 3rd party at play in Winterfell.... or someone real lucky to have big ears to overhear Mance/spearwives/Theon at some point

EDIT: guys, why aren't we building Lady Dustin conspiracy theories on the letter!?!?! She has no love of Starks and nearly as much for Ramsay

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I said "suggests". Its not ironclad, but I sort of took it for granted that it was due to remorse. I certainly can't find any actual evidence prior to the stabbing that Bowen Marsh genuinely resented Jon. Disagreed with him, sure, but that was to be expected.

That's just ludicrous. Jon was the only person in the Watch who had the intelligence to treat the Others as the real threat, the nobleman's education, the ability to lead men in battle and the knowledge and desire to save/recruit the wildlings and therefore save himself the hassle of having their cold dead corpses swarming over the Watch when the Wall inevitably comes down. Jon had no desire to continue the war with the Lannisters - he wasn't violently opposed to their rule at all. The Lannisters might have left the Wall alone if another LC had been chosen, but that wouldn't have done the Watch any good when they're up to their necks in Wights and Others. This is the beginning of the Long Night - keeping the unreasonable tyrants happy is a distant second to being able to marshal a decent defence of the Realm.

You have an extremely unreasonable view of Jon's actions, methinks. He was prepared to treat with the Lannisters in so far as reality would allow him, considering Stannis was present at the Wall and outnumbered him. It was Tywin and Cersei to decided to mess around with the Watch; putting one of the most incompetent men in the kingdom in charge of their ranks and later, when that didn't work, trying to organise his assassination.

If you'll read the rest of the scene, you'll notice that Jon's tone started out conciliatory, but deteriorated when it became obvious that none of them were willing to consider that his actions might be the best option they had available. And yes, he's a little curt when he dismisses them, which is because he's frustrated. Fair enough, I would think. Jon tried to explain his more radical actions, but they just weren't prepared to listen. Your thoughts on what he should have done appear flawed, too. He did listen to his men, but he couldn't get their backing if he chose to follow through with what he saw were the best solutions to his problems. He was faced with a choice between getting the Watch ready for the Long Night or gaining the approval of his men. The former is obviously the better choice, the latter is lunacy. He could have made a few minor compromises, such as not making Satin his steward, but I don't think that would have helped any.

No offence, but the whole 'don't rely on the authority of your rank' thing is naive in the extreme. A leader should always make every attempt to gain the personal respect oh his or her subordinates, but sometimes it doesn't work out. That doesn't necessarily mean they are a bad leader. Their people may be acting unreasonably and be unwilling to give them the chance unless they conform to their own expectations (as in Jon's case), the person may be only placed in their position an extremely short time before some crisis they have to deal with occurs, etc. A leader shouldn't rely solely on the rank of their office, but sometimes that's all you've got in your corner and you've got to deal with the situation anyway. Legal authority is derived from a person's position and not their personal charisma for a reason.

He didn't talk to them because he didn't intend to bring any of them with him as he was trying to dissociate them from his actions, so that only he would take the blame if he failed. He still talked to them about almost every previous decision he made, at some point or another, and they consistently refused to see his point of view. How many times does a man have to argue with a brick wall before he's entitled to say 'screw it'?

Jon made his share of errors; its not as if having Satin as his steward was very important, he should have gone to Melisandre privately with Ramsay's letter before spontaneously announcing his intention to march south and he should have have kept a damn tail of guards after the sorceress straight up warned him that people were going to try to kill him, but I think his decision process regarding how best to defend the Wall was spot on, at every turn.

I agree with everything you have said in this post 100%. I couldn't have said it better myself, so thank you for showing logic in your responses.

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The Corpse at the Prow - When I read Theon's homecoming chapter I thought it was him. IIRC he is standing at the prow of the ship and makes the captain take him in the hard way because he wants to see it growing larger before him, to replace the memory of the day he left and it shrank away behind him. He also felt more sadness than anything else when he saw his home again.

Theon was dead ( to honor atleast) the moment he left Robb's side. He just hasn't died yet.

Bowen Marsh - Is very smug and pompous and absolutely looks down on his "brothers" of lower birth, Wildlings were more than he could stand. I see him having a Janos Slynt " I will not have it" moment in his upcoming POV intro to TWOW. He'll swear that his move was more political, though it's not allowed and think he can explain away his treason by saying it was the only way to save the NW because Jon sided with Stannis. He'll probably believe that himself once the deed is done. Marsh is not a man who sees his own faults. Everyman of the NW left at Castle Black would have died had Jon not come to warn them, do you think Marsh would ever reflected on that? I don't think so.

Jon- Is not dead nor Undead. He is badly wounded and will need time to recover as Bran did. Bran & BR will use this downtime to fill Jon in on "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About The Others But Were Afraid To Ask" hence the Blue Flower in the Ice. When and how Jon comes back into the story, I have too many CPTs floating around now to commit so I'll leave it here.

Free Northman

I agree with your idea. I've been thinking Mance for awhile but didn't see how he do it alone ( getting the bird, etc) I couldn't see the spearwives being any help with the letter or the Maester just helping him out. He'd have to be crazy to go against the Bolton's but since we now know that the Bolton's regular Maester was with the Karstarks, who is tending to things at Winterfell?

Anyway, Mance confessing to Ramsey after Theon & "Arya" escape with the help of the spearwives makes sense with Mance offering Ramsey/Roose men and swords and hostages to save himself and the remaining women. Hopefully while they still have most of their parts intact. I think by the time the letter was sent, two battles had been fought and Winterfell could be besieged, hence Mance being given the chance to help write the letter and not being just flat out killed and skinned after the "Arya" escape.

Last but not least Theon - He may very well loose his head in front of the Weirtree but not before Bran/BR say or do something that will have a great impact on the story. It's time for the magic to happen people. We've had so much build up about the Old Gods and the COTF, it's time to see them in action, along with the Angry Ghosts of the Kings in the North.

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Mance, however, has been playing both sides, and Mance tells Ramsay that he can offer him thousands of wildling swords if Ramsay gets him his wife and child back.

Keep in mind that Mance's wife died in childbirth. Val was her sister. It also seems likely that Mance knows that Monster isn't his kid, otherwise he'd likely have already tried to snatch him and escape while he was at Castle Black posing as Rattleshirt.

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Lets take a look at the Ravens in the Stannis camp. They're very chatty talking of "trees" and "Theon". Could this be Bran talking? And are most of these ravens trained to fly to Winterfell? Was Roose or Ramsay planning on following the Freys and Manderleys? Would it be plausible that Stannis wanted Roose to believe that Ramsay defeated him by writing that letter intending it to "mistakenly" fly to Winterfell. In that, making it seem as Ramsay wanted it to go to the Wall, but since the crows fly mainly to one place, it goes to Winterfell. Then, Roose believes Ramsay has defeated Stannis and forwards the letter to the Wall thinking that the raven came to Winterfell by mistake?

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I think it's pretty certain that Bran / BR are directing the ravens. We've seen ravens repeat words that people around them are speaking ..but these ravens start going on about tree and Theon before Asha even enters the watchtower .

It's pretty clear that they're both "destination Winterfell" ravens, but since Bran and / or BR seem to be controlling them , my guess is they can go wherever their "rider" directs them.

ETA; I have some further thoughts about Bowen Marsh , but in the interest of not derailing this thread, I'm going to sort them out and post on the Bowen Marsh thread in the ADWD section.

So, as to Theon, I think there's been quite a bit of possible foreshadowing going on...

Theon has toyed with the idea of ' taking the black ' going back to just before Ramsay razed Winterfell . In his latest musings , he thinks Jon would probably have his head off , but I think it's more likely Jon would just assign him somewhere away from him, personally , as desperate as he is for manpower. ( That's assuming Jon would be in charge , which might not be the case. )

Theon was once a notably good archer.He has enough fingers left to physically draw a bow. The wall needs archers . Stannis needs archers .

Theon isn't afraid to die, but has not taken the opportunity to commit suicide. ( He was allowed to wander around Winterfell with a dagger on his belt ) He still seems willing to let things play out , and try to cope with what comes . I don't think he'd be so fatalistic if he thought he'd have to go back to Ramsay , though.

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Ramsay has returned from the battle at the lake with his tail between his legs. He's lost 2000 Freys, and the Manderlys have deserted with all their power. He is trapped in Winterfell with maybe 2000 men left, and he has lost his bride.

In short, he is desperate.

As for Mance, think about it from his point of view. Why would he want to ally with a nearly powerless Jon, when he could have the Warden of the North and the power of the Iron Throne ensuring a home for him and his wildlings in the North.

So hypothetically speaking, If Ramsay is "returning after the battle of the lake with his tail between his legs", then Mance knows Stannis is still out there. Why would Mance think his chances are better with 2,000 men, that can't work together, opposed to Stannis. Stannis and Jon are on the same side, go against Jon and you go against Stannis, who in this situation, beat Ramsey's army? And then throw Jon in the mix with either the forces of the NW or the forces of Wildlings, how can Mance think Ramsay is the better choice?

Mance wouldn't choose Ramsey for simple survival. Mance may be an "outlaw" but he is not without honor(he would utterly despise Ramsay), with that said he would never choose Ramsay just out of principal. And Ramsay would never allow him to, are you forgetting Mance tricked Ramsay? Ramsay is to irrational to overlook that fact, even if it is beneficial for him to do so. So no I do not believe Mance would choose to side with Ramsay. Especially considering Ramsay only has the power of the men at Winterfell, until the north is travel-able again(so in a way, the Boltons don't really have the power of the Iron throne behind them). And Mance knows that Everyone in Winterfell is at each others throats.

It's not like Mance can just choose Ramsey over Jon because it's not just Jon and the NW, it's Jon and a bunch of Wildlings. Mance left before Tormund brought his people through the Wall. I know Mance doesn't know that, so it would not be in his decision prosess. But Mance would have to choose Ramsay, over Jon and the Watch, and Stannis and his army

And Mance owes his life to Melisandre, he would be choosing against her, and I don't think he would do that. And he can't do that if he still has the ruby thing on his wrist (it could be underneath his clothing?)

If he was going to side with Ramsay why would he and the spearwives be killing Bolton forces? Why steel fake Arya? If your argument is he decided To side with Ramsey after Arya and Theon got away, then everything above this last point still applys.

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Here's a new thought. Ramsay is desperate, holed up in Winterfell, and has discovered Mance.

Mance, however, has been playing both sides, and Mance tells Ramsay that he can offer him thousands of wildling swords if Ramsay gets him his wife and child back.

So Ramsay needs hostages against Stannis's remaining forces - hence his need for Selyse and Shireen, and he needs the thousands of swords Mance can supposedly offer, and hence his request for Mance's family.

Now that sounds convincing for a minute, but only as long as you don't think it through. Because: The letter cannot be used to get both: an army AND hostages. It will either provoke Jon to gather a wildling army and move south. Then he will leave the hostages at the Wall, as far as prossible from the fight. Or he will deliver the hostages: then there is no fight and no army.

And there is more:

1. It has already been pointed out that Mance doesn't know about the wildling army, as far as he knows, there are only 300 demoralized wildlings south of the Wall who perhaps could do a bit of fighting, but their families are hostages to Stannis and the Night's Watch. And even if he knew about Tormund's 4000 somehow, then he would also know about their sons being hostages at the same place, so they wouldn't turn against Jon all of a sudden.

2. If the Boltons wanted a wildling army, why would they write letters in which they explicitly accuse Stannis and Jon of letting Mance Rayder live, putting big emphasis on the fact that this is obviously nothing any northmen would approve of, and then include said King-Beyond-the-Wall (who just stole a northman's daughter right out of a castle under their very noses) and his fearsome wildling army into their forces and give them lands? See how long Roose would be able to hold the north, then.

3. Many people take for granted that the letter was meant to provoke Jon into marching on Winterfell. I don't think so. I think it's more an attempt to get either hostages or as many people associated with Stannis in order to gain a better position (if Ramsay knows Stannis is alive) or to kill them (if he thinks Stannis is dead). I also think that it was written by Ramsay. There are some lines that convinced me of late:

- "...tell his red whore" [that Stannis is dead]

- "...come see them, bastard" [heads on the walls of Winterfell]

- "...come and get him" [Mance Rayder]

This is just the same kind of sardonic threatening Ramsay used in his letter to Asha and the Ironborn: "Linger in my lands, and share his [Theon's] fate." It's not meant as an 'invitation' or a provocation, it's a threat and a demonstration of fearlessness and power. Same as those three lines.

About "tell his red whore": Only Ramsay would be stupid enough to include the line to tell Melisandre. Mance knows she sees stuff in her fires, he was present when she correctly predicted the rangers without eyes 'returning' this very day. If he wanted to trick Jon, he would assume Melisandre would know about that. He wouldn't advise to write that line. Ramsay writes it as a demonstation of convidence and a position of power. He doesn't fear the red witch, she can as well know about this... [insert crazy giggling]

About "Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard": We don't even know who is meant here. Maybe Manderly or Umber men. The invitation to come and see them if Jon doesn't believe Ramsay is just another demonstration of power. He doesn't even need to name those whose heads are on the wall, Jon will know who they are, and he doesn't need to explain their downfall. If Jon wants to know more, he is welcome to try and get his ass down to Winterfell. He better not, though... [crazy giggling, see above]

About: "I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him." Again, this is not, as many people seem to think, an actual provocation. Neither is it an attempt, as I have read here and there, to offer Mance in exchange for the other hostages. It's plain and simple another demonstration of power. See the parallel in the words between Ramsay getting back his bride and Jon getting back his wildling king. In contrast to Ramsay, who WILL get his bride back, no matter what, Jon can do nothing about the Mance Rayder situation. Thus the emphasis on the faked death and its revelation to the northmen, which will undermine Jon's position very seriously. Besides, it is strongly implied that Mance will be dead soon anyway. So while Ramsay will get what he wants, Jon will not. But again, he is welcome to try... [giggling]

The lines "I want my bride back" "I want my Reek back" have already been said by Theon now. So it's either crazy Ramsay writing, or it's Theon, who can apparently almost 'turn' into Ramsay if need be. I don't think the letter is true, though. But all explanations and theories offered so far take only into account one part of the letter, not the whole thing. One way to explain the letter in the easiest way possible is that Ramsay wrote it, either believes or lies about Stannis's death, and that with four or five wildling women to torture, he could have very easily found out all about the Arya rescue mission and the people behind it. The magic sword, the wildling princess/baby and Melisandre, by the way, are common knowledge in all the North. I won't say Mance writing the letter is totally out of question, but he would have to be extremely stupid if this was his great master plan. I don't think so. And about working with Ramsay - all people in Winterfell saw how well that turned out for Theon. I wouldn't want my child delivered within a hundred miles around this guy, to be sure.

Now I am going to shut up about the letter, because I have already argued as above in a hundreds of threads, I think. Good night!

PS: One thing to bear in mind about the above mentioned Bael the Bard-story are the crypts. Let's not forget the crypts. Osha didn't, for one :)

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I agree that it doesn't make sense for Stannis to have written the Ramsay letter. My point is that there is evidence that he did write it, however. I do not have a theory as to the reason, but I do believe the letter is a fake and that it was a strategic move for Stannis. The intended purpose is not clear. Before reading the Theon chapter, my thoughts were that Bowen Marsh had written the letter. He hated Jon and wanted him dead. Marsh became friends with Janos Slynt, who had been manuevered to be sent to the Wall by Cersei for a plot to kill Jon. So, I assumed the letter was part of this plot.

In ADwD, Tormund says, "Might be all a skin o' lies." (referring to the letter/scroll) and in the first paragraph of the letter the writer instructs Jon to go to Melisandre, "Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore." Which leads me to wonder that if Jon had gone to Melisandre first, would she have told Jon that the letter was a fake?

Actually, Slynt was sent to the Wall by Tyrion as punishment for the death of baby Barra (one of Robert's Bastards) and her mother. Once he was there he was pretty much forgotten by the Lannisters. Remember that Tywin held him in contempt because he was the son of a butcher.

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