Why is Alysane Mormont with Stannis?

[alienarea]

In my understanding Alysane is with Stannis for storyline purposes. I can imagine two different scenarios:

1) After the assassination Jon stays in Ghost for a while, and Ghost runs to Stannis/Winterfell. In this scenario Alysane has some warging abilities and is required to communicate with Jon while he's stuck in Ghost. Alysane is the only possible warg in Stannis' camp / around Winterfell that we know of.

2) I have a feeling that Theon's planned execution at the weirwood might not go well for Stannis. In this case his troops would need a leader accepted by the Northerners who for storyline purposes should have been introduced before: Alysane.

[Babeldygob]

The northern houses will never actually turn on stannis now- they are honorable and he has treated them honorably.He has protected the north from the wildlings, the Ironmen and the boltons and they owe him now.But they will pay the debt in their own way I imagine.

I certainly don,t think the northern houses which have joined with stannis plan

The Northern Houses will not turn. They will say something along the lines(if it all works out in Stannis' favor) of: "Look Stannis, Winter has come, the North is dying, we're not declaring another war right now. Rest at the Nightfort until Winter is done and then we'll fight your war. Oh and btw Jon/Rickon is now King in the North." This will make Stannis so angry he will BREAK.

[StannisandDaeny]

Poor Dacey Mormont was butchered at the Red Wedding. That seems reason enough for me: most of the Northmen are out to get some revenge against the Boltons and the Freys.

[Dragonguard]

And Stannis has chops. He's competent, he understands battle; he does not demand his men march themselves to death (a la Tywin after deception at the Green Fork); he does not waste them needlessly (a la Edmure against the Mountain); he does not lead them to disaster (a La Robb at the Red Wedding).

Actually:

- Marches them into a Snowstorm - his southron men are dropping like flies and being burned for eating the dead

- Refuses alliances so in effect sets up everyone as an enemy his men would have to fight when this is not necessary

-THE BLACKWATER

:fencing:

[Daenerys is my queen]

To save "Arya"? :dunno:

[GallowsKnight]

I'm baffled when people ascribe southron style conspiracy theories to the Northern houses.

I think their motivations are straight forward, save what family they can, help any Stark, get ready for winter and unleash righteous bloody vengeance on any Bolton, Frey or Lannister they can find. Killing Ironborn is a bonus.

People wonder why the Northerners would follow Stannis south.

Who executed Ned Stark? Organised the red wedding? Abused, defiled and murdered Sansa Stark?

So the last didn't happen, but you'd be hard to prove they didn't.

Actually:

- Marches them into a Snowstorm - his southron men are dropping like flies and being burned for eating the dead

There was no snowstorm when they set out. They covered the majority of the distance in the first few days. Then it set in. What were they meant to do? Stay in Deepwood Motte and eat up all their supplies. Winter lasts years.

[JP Dayne]

no textual evidence that mormonts can skinchange into bears so i dont subscribe to that.

jorah seems to be pretty skeptical.. and the old bear never mentioned anything specially while living next to a stark warg... varamyr thought us skinchangers can kinda detect each other...

[Bluesnow]

There is no way Northmen will bow to a Baratheon after Joffrey chopped off head of The Ned, specially to a guy who is burning people and (more important) Wierwood tries......They are just using Stanis to get rid of the Boltons and return a Stark to Winterfell :cool4:

Pretty sure they all blame the Lannisters for that...

But I agree that they are probably using Stannis xD

But if the Northern Houses ever found out that Ned actually knew that Stannis was the rightful heir, then they would support him.

Doubtful... Not even Stannis knew this I don't think o.o

[gingerpunk]

1. I think Alysane Mormont is with Stannis to help get Winterfell away from Bolton and to save "Arya." The Mormonts want to be represented and to know what's going on. I don't think it needs to be anymore complicated than that.

2. I definitely think that the Mormonts warg bears.

I feel like Jeor Mormont warged his raven.

[bemused]

I think the Northern Lords were already planning to try to remove the Boltons on their own by an attack from within WF, and reinstate a Stark ( Rickon, or possibly Jon..or Jon as regent for Rickon ). When Stannis annouced his plan and asked for help..they had to make adjustments.

Both Alysanne's adult sisters are with their mother , presumably at GWW, Alysanne may have been with her as well ( or on her way between )when Stannis' letter arrived, hence his answer from young Lyanna... Her answer may have been one of the deciding factors in Alysanne's " unlooked for " assistance. Assurance to Stannis that Bear Island is not his enemy.

I don't think the North will "turn" on Stannis either, and will agree to help him how and when they can. But they have to look after their own as well. They have to try to shore up their holdings for the winter. They've lost a lot of manpower to the Boltons, Freys and Lannisters.

OTOH, they won't want Stannis to gain sole custody of WF..he might install a southern lord , or someone equally unsuitable, if he does . Yet they can't make Rickon.e.g. common knowledge,yet..Or if Jon has been designated Robb's heir, they can't just let the cat out of the bag , with the Boltons in control and without informing Jon ... and presenting whatever offer to the NW, Robb decided on. He was thinking of a hundred men. ( If Ramsay didn't write the letter... this may have a lot to do with all the urging Jon to come to WF )

They want autonomy for the North , but I think they'd take it if it came with the title Warden of the North, instead of King ( What about Prince of Winterfell ? ;) ...the prince that was promised..)

[GallowsKnight]

I don't think the North will "turn" on Stannis either, and will agree to help him how and when they can. But they have to look after their own as well. They have to try to shore up their holdings for the winter. They've lost a lot of manpower to the Boltons, Freys and Lannisters.

I agree with this.

I don't get why everyone thinks Stannis will want to marshal every Northern soldier to march south. He knows the danger at the wall. He'll send them there or home. If he does go south it would be with the small number of Northerners who want to wreak vengeance on the Lannisters. Howling wolves with winter at their backs.

[Lord Varys]

No Northern house has shown any real guts on his own up to this point. They have done nothing.

1. Manderly has started to make big plans, but he would have canceled them at once had the Freys seen through the Davos deception.

2. The mountain clans - supposedly die-hard Stark loyalists - did nothing to move against the Boltons on their own. They did not even offer to take Bran and the Reeds in when they crossed their lands. Despite the fact that the Liddle man obviously realized who Bran truly was. They were only united when an outsider - Stannis - arrived and called upon their help.

3. Howland Reed and the crannogmen (along with Galbart Glover and Mage Mormont) sit on their asses as well, doing nothing since the Red Wedding happened! One should assume that Howland Reed could have found a way to send an emissary with Robb's will to the Wall (if that's what he wants to do). More importantly, they could even have tried to prevent Roose from returning North when the Dreadfort men and Freys crossed the Neck.

4. Alysane Mormont and her Bear Island people also only started to do something after Stannis ended up marching on Deepwood Motte.

All this indicates in my opinion that there is no great Northern conspiracy going on. Especially no conspiracy in favor of Jon, since the North honors the duty and role of the members of the Night's Watch. They would not ask Jon to step down as Lord Commander, nor could they allow him to do so. Remember the story about that Lord Ryswell who had his own son killed for the crime of defection? That's the way in the North, they don't look kindly on people who try to leave the Night's Watch.

They could try to install a boy king in the North (either Rickon or Bran, since at least some of the Northern lords now know that they are alive - but the mountain clans obviously never thought about that, else they would not have let Bran march to the Wall), but that would not only antagonize Stannis for obvious reasons (and force them to kill him, since he would never accept that), it would also not give them their vengeance on the Freys and Lannisters in the South. More importantly, King Brandon or King Rickon could not rule themselves. There would have to be a Regent, and that would effectively put the whole North in the hand of a minor Lord/house. The vibe I got from all the Northern houses during the first three novels is that they are following their own interests first, and try to make the best for their own families rather than serve the needs/whims of their liege lords.

I very much doubt the other Northern houses would accept fat Wyman Manderly as their overlord until Rickon comes of age.

Stannis, on the other hand, helps them against the Others, has also a real interest in restoring a Stark to Winterfell, and has the same interest to serve the Freys and Lannister their very own meal. I say that is more than enough common ground for a lasting alliance, especially since the Lords of the North could even rise to prominence in KL if Stannis should succeed in the very end. The Manderlys might even win back their lost lands along the Mander. I don't see why the Lords should not back Stannis wholeheartedly - assuming that he wins the Battle at Winterfell.

[sumant30]

They could try to install a boy king in the North (either Rickon or Bran, since at least some of the Northern lords now know that they are alive - but the mountain clans obviously never thought about that, else they would not have let Bran march to the Wall), but that would not only antagonize Stannis for obvious reasons (and force them to kill him, since he would never accept that), it would also not give them their vengeance on the Freys and Lannisters in the South. More importantly, King Brandon or King Rickon could not rule themselves. There would have to be a Regent, and that would effectively put the whole North in the hand of a minor Lord/house. The vibe I got from all the Northern houses during the first three novels is that they are following their own interests first, and try to make the best for their own families rather than serve the needs/whims of their liege lords.

That is very valid point you are making.

[Dragonguard]

There was no snowstorm when they set out. They covered the majority of the distance in the first few days. Then it set in. What were they meant to do? Stay in Deepwood Motte and eat up all their supplies. Winter lasts years.

Alright i'll concede that point, Stannis couldnt have predicted the storm :) but he did keep marchin them rather than digging in cos he wanted to outdo robert didnt he? And without Jons guidence he would have marched to probable disaster at the dreadfort without gaining any northern support first... and My other 2 points stand - Stannis is not as savvy as some try and make it seem

[Lord Varys]

Stannis has very little knowledge about the North. No one in the South really has. Stannis did not come up with the idea of contacting the mountain clans because he did not know that they existed. And how could he? Stannis was not Ned's best friend, and he was never in the North before he came to the Wall. Stannis did work with the map of the North he had, and that map did not show any settlements in the lands of the mountain clans.

Before Jon told Stannis about the mountain clans, the Dreadfort seemed to be the best (and only option) Stannis had. Without any help from the Northern lords it would have been difficult and pointless to liberate Deepwood Motte. Without the mountain clan men the march in that direction would have only cost Stannis men, and dealing with Asha would have not weakened Roose and his allies. This move made only sense after Stannis heard about the mountain clans. After they joined him, he had a backbone force of Northmen, and started to gain even more followers, which enabled him to challenge Roose Bolton openly after his return in the North. Before that, his only chance was to take the Dreadfort before Roose came back home. This would have damaged Roose's reputation and perhaps motivated others to join him. Pretty much the same thing that happened after he took Deepwood Motte.

And, no, Stannis did not intend to march himself and his troops into death. He had no idea that this storm would come, and after it came, continue the march was all he could do. In fact, this whole thing might very well turn to his advantage. Stannis's men - both the Northmen and the Southron knights - are all desperate. Their only chance for survival is to win the coming battle. There is simply no other option. They may no longer be in the best of shapes, but they will fight for their lives. They will fight hard.

[sumant30]

Alright i'll concede that point, Stannis couldnt have predicted the storm :) but he did keep marchin them rather than digging in cos he wanted to outdo robert didnt he? And without Jons guidence he would have marched to probable disaster at the dreadfort without gaining any northern support first... and My other 2 points stand - Stannis is not as savvy as some try and make it seem

Stannis is not savvy is very much proven on battle of black water watch where tyrion destroys his ships completely, and there he does not take the advice of his onion knight but florents.

[Lord Varys]

Stannis learns from his mistakes. And Davos did not advise Stannis directly. He was on the ship with Ser Imry, whereas Stannis accompanied his troops on land. Ser Imry was Selyse's brother, and was named Admiral of the fleet before they arrived at KL. Stannis could not foresee Tyrion's little tricks, nor could he foresee the amount of wildfire they had left in the city.

And in the end, all that did not matter. Stannis would have taken King's Landing. The Tyrells and Tywin saved the city, not Tyrion.

[RottenAppleFossoway]

The way I see it she has three choices:

1. Allegiance/alliance with the Boltons which would be treason against the Starks; highly unlikely given her opinions of both.

2. Allegiance/alliance to Stannis/enmity towards the Boltons, and by that continued allegiance to the Starks. It's the best way currently to get "Arya" back and kick the traitors out of Winterfell.

3. Independence. Bear island is remote enough that they could possibly survive alone. But the Mormonts have been Stark loyalists throughout, they're an honorable house (except Jorah of course) and surely they're more interested in justice/vengeance for all the treachery against their liege-lords than being independent. They're an honorable house ( or have seemed so up to now)

[Antler's Fury]

Uh, what has Stannis done to earn such a reputation among the Northmen?

Saved the North from the wilding horde, Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn, is currently fighting against the Boltons to take back Winterfell, and shipped in dragonglass to fight the Others. What else would you have him do?

Recall that Stannis could save his strength by trying to ally with the Boltons against the Lannisters to give the former a better deal, but doesn't, because he knows that the Boltons are treacherous, sadistic scum who deserve annihiation.

For one thing, the Northron no longer see themselves as subjects of the Seven Kingdoms. Their current move against House Bolton is as much an act of independence from the Iron Throne (who pushed the supposed new Warden of the North down their throats) as anything else.

What move? The one spearheaded by Stannis himself? As Lord Varys points out, none of the supposedly conspiritorial Northern houses, Mormonts, Umbers, Glovers, Reeds, etc. do a darn thing to actively oppose the Boltons, or even the Ironborn for that matter, after the RW, until Stannis' arrival.

For another, Stannis' claim is doubtful. Even its legitimacy is ultimately glorified gossip.

And since when have the Northerners particuarly cared about that? Even Robb, who initially puts forth Stannis' right to the Iron Throne, shows he doesn't care about the validity of that claim when he sends Cat to treat with Renly, whose claim is inferior to Stannis'. Now that Renly is dead, and the Lannisters have killed Ned, Robb, and Catelyn with the aid of the Freys and Boltons, why wouldn't the Northerners genuinely ally with him, considering he promises vengence against all three houses? Siding with Stannis is what they should have done all along, especially once Renly was dead, considering that they were rebelling against the Lannisters, and they knew that Stannis was attacking KL.

Then there is Stannis's actual behavior - hardly the sort that inspires confidence, particularly among foreigners that know that he only after a crown.

The Northerners are not "foreigners" to the Southroners, as the STAB alliance proves. And even if he is after a crown, so what? To Stannis, wearing a crown means ensuring law and order in his kingdom, which is exactly why he goes to war against the invading wildings and Others, and the backstabbing Boltons and Freys.

Unless Stannis gets a olympic-level face turn Real Soon Now, he is neither deserving nor likely to receive much of actual acceptance in the North. They will thank him deeply for his help against the Boltons, wish him good luck in his campaign towards King's Landing, and go back to their business.

The problem with this Great Northern Conspiracy stuff is that it force fits Northern houses into a vision of Southron intrigue that doesn't fit with what we've been told about the North. Honor means a heck of a lot more in the North than in the South, which is why the Mormonts, Umbers, mountain clans, etc. are so fanatically loyal to the Stark's memory even after the house has been decimated. It would go against everything we know about the stalwart Northerners to accept Stannis' extensive help with the Ironborn, Boltons, wildings, and Others, and bend the knee to him, only to dump him after they're done using him. I mean, they are fighting in Ned's name, so why would they be so willing to jettison an arrangement that Ned himself had no problem with, using oathbreaking that Ned would surely disapprove of? And let's not forget that, even if Stannis cleanses the North of the Ironborn, extinguishes the Boltons, rebuilds Winterfell, and gets Rickon back, the Others are still coming. The North will still be in a very fragile position once they arrive, having only just begun to recover from the war. Why on earth would they risk Stannis shattering everything they repaired and starting another war in the North when they know they'll need all the help they can get against the Others, especially once they learn that Jon was stabbed?

Really, they have no reason to do anything else. Stannis doesn't much care about the North - he can hardly name a handful of Houses, even - and it shows. The North isn't composed of blind followers of anyone who calls himself King, and it is all the better for that.

If Stannis doesn't care about the North, he as an odd way of showing it. He's done more for the North than any Southron king has ever done, even Jaehaerys I. And if he can hardly name a handful of houses, (as if that were somehow a reliable method of judging anything) how did he send ravens to all of them demanding fealty?

Come to think of it, Stannis just might have a shot at deserved acceptance if he put his mind to it. But it would basically mean giving up on the Iron Throne. He would need to actually stay on the North and settle for a while, earn their trust (which I straight out doubt him capable or deserving of, but who knows what might happen in the future) and become a Northron himself.

And that's exactly what he's been doing. Staying in the North, having his troops, fight, freeze, bleed, and die alongside their Northern counterparts. What else would the Northerners require before they start trusting Stannis? He isn't just talking, he's delivering. The idea that Stannis is somehow incapable of earning trust, when he's had men fight across a bridge of burning ships, storm an wilding horde at the end of the world, and march through a bizzard at his command, is too ridicuous to really consider.

Trouble is, it would cost him more time than he is probably going to live still and the support of most of his greedy Southron Lords and Knights. He knows that well; he said Jon as much early in ADWD. His goals have little to do with the North, much less with Justice, and are only the springboard that he found to launch himself as a succesful, daring military leader that ought to be recognized as King.

Stannis seems able to keep his greedy knights in check, especially when Jon advises not to give Northern castles to Southroners. He doesn't want to give Winterfell to either Massey or Horpe, but instead proposes to give it to Karstark. He seems to have satisfied Massey by considering the idea of his marrying Asha provided he get enough sellswords. Should Stannis survive to march South, with or without the Northerners, Cersei tells us there are plenty of abandonded castles and lands in the Riverlands for him to distribute. Stannis' goals for the North are precisely justice. Justice for the wildings (assimilation), the Watch (respect for their autonomy), the Starks (reinstatement), the Boltons (extermination), the Freys (extermination), the Ironborn (eviction), and the Others (repulsion). You have it exactly backward; to Stannis, the military acts are themselves a springboad to take what is rightfully his. He has repeatedy stated that he ought to be recognized as King because it is his by right, and that he intends to use the monarchy to enforce justice, not because of his military capabilities. That was Renly's argument.

[Antler's Fury]

Hm . . . I´m not exactly anti-Stannis or pro-Stannis, so I´m not set on any scenario, but . . .

Let´s say that Stannis takes Winterfell from the Boltons, that Davos will bring Rickon to Manderly . . . All goes well for Stannis.

Logically, the Northmen should be honourbound to help Stannis gain the Iron Throne, BUT it will be winter, probably the worst and longest winter anyone can remember (the summer lasted for ten years after all), the North is already partly depopulated due to Robb´s unsuccessful campaign, and the crops are dwindling . . . Would it be really wise of them to go down south and fight in another war, no matter how righteous the cause may be? Wouldn´t it be better to save the rest of their strength and wait for spring/summer? If I was in their shoes, I woudn´t want to cross the Moat Caitlin any time soon, particularly not after Robb´s fiasco. Maybe they could hold the North (Moat Caitlin, Napoleon in Russia and so on), but I find it highly unbelievable that they would be enthusiastic about going south. Sure, they want to avenge their kin and correct the defeit they suffered, but this just appears to be a suicide plan, particularly so if Aegon ItIsNotProbablyReallyHim Targaryen is victorious over the exhausted Lannisters and the Tyrells which he probably will be.

Stannis knows that the Northerners have suffered serious losses, which suggests that he will only take what he can afford to take. It wouldn't make sense for him to go through the trouble of reclaiming the North, only to leave them lacking the manpower to take on the Others. WHatever the Northerners can spare, combined with Massey's sellswords, may be enough for him to push southward, especially considering that the Riverlands have no real Lord Paramount. The hated Freys have Riverrun, but not the position of Lord Paramount, which remains with the absentee Littlefinger. Harrenhall is held by the admittedly competant Bonifer Hasty, but he'd be dependent upon the weakining Lannister forces in the region, and the support of the Freys, who have no popular support outside of the Twins.

Wouldn´t it be so much simpler for Manderly to say: "Well, thanks for bringing us Rickon Stark. But you know, he´s not really our liege lord. Our liege lord is his older brother Brandon. I told your Hand that both of them escaped from Winterfell. And I told him that should he bring me my liege lord, I will support your cause. He brought only Rickon, not Brandon. Those were not the terms. Yes, I misdirected him, but he should had known, really. Bye."

You're joking, I trust? Manderly doesn't even know which Stark is where. He specifically wants Davos to go to Skagos and bring back "the boy" who is there, who Manderly will recognize as his leige lord, subodinate to Stannis, who Manderly will recognize as king.

Yes, it would be particularly sleazy thing to do, but let´s face it, Wyman Manderly is sleazy - he ordered to make three people into the meat pies and then served them to the unknowing people on the wedding feast, including their (as far as we know) blameless kinswoman. People act as if it was only cool and not despicable because the affected were the Freys (and the poor wedding guests, who became cannibals never knowing about it :stillsick: ), but I personally don´t view it this way.

Sure, Manderly is sleazy - to the Freys, because they murdered his son and his king and a whole bunch of Northerners by blatantly violating the guest right in the worst way possible. Stannis hasn't done anything to Manderly or his allies to warrant betrayal. In fact, as I've mentioned before, he's done more to deserve allegiance from the North than any Southron king, even Aegon I or Jaehaerys I .