Wind's Points of View.

[Eggplant Wizard]

It would really speed things up if she flew the dragon from place to place so she could get the backing of all of the old Dothraki women. Get her there in a paragraph, wrap that story up in a chapter and send her to Westeros already! She has to reach the shore at the end of this book, she's going to need time to get her bearings in the next one and to save the day.

[Yeade]

I like the idea of a POV blackout at the Wall and when we finally see it again, right after the Battle of Ice or during it, it will still be a mess. The anti-Snows will have control of Castle Black, taking Selyse, Shireen, Melisandre, and their defenders as hostages. Most of the wildlings will have fled to other castles, and those who stayed are confined in the ice cells, alongside Jon's supporters and his dying body.

Many seem to feel the same as you, but I gotta say I've yet to hear a really convincing argument as to how, exactly, Marsh and his followers can successfully take control of Castle Black. I've crunched the numbers (see my post-ADWD OOB for the Wall), and the situation doesn't look too promising for the NW.

At best, I figure there are two to three hundred black brothers at Castle Black. The wildlings have at least equal or, more likely, superior numbers. Selyse has fifty swords at her command (well, one less now courtesy of Wun Wun, lol) while Flint and Norrey, the northern clansmen, have between them a few short of twenty guards.

I find it very doubtful that Marsh has the full support of his brothers. The free folk, OTOH, know who's responsible for granting them continued shelter at the Wall and have pledged themselves en masse to Jon's cause in the Shieldhall. Given that Jon's also publicly announced his intentions to defend Selyse and avenge her husband's apparent death, the queensmen have good reason to not want his killers in charge even assuming Melisandre doesn't make it clear she'd rather Jon live. The northmen haven't any idea what's happening, but I believe they wouldn't be amenable to Ned Stark's last surviving son being treacherously murdered on principle, lol.

Marsh, as First Steward, arranging for poisoned drinks to be served to the wildling chiefs in the Shieldhall has been proposed. Except those drinks hadn't yet arrived when Jon leaves, and mere minutes pass before he gets knifed. That's hardly enough time to get drunk and dead, IMO.

The NW usually has the advantages of discipline and better weapons in combat against the free folk. However, a disorderly melee's developing in the courtyard of Castle Black, and Jon's quite possibly already ordered that the wildlings be armed with steel. Leathers, a wildling turned crow, is master-at-arms, anyways.

Forty wildling boys are hostages for their fathers' good behavior at Castle Black, including Tormund's own son, Dryn. Marsh can conceivably take custody of these kids and leverage them against the wildlings. There are no assurances the free folk would honor Jon's deal with his killer, though, and they may choose to fight to the death should Marsh attempt to force them back beyond the Wall or into the wintery wilderness where nothing but death awaits.

Pretty much all the above scenarios and most others require Marsh to not only have a significant number of NW men on his side but preparations ready to assassinate Jon before the Pink Letter arrives. Without the instigating issue of Jon's response to Ramsay's demands, just how many of the black brothers would be willing to murder their Lord Commander in contravention of common military law? And over the wildlings, who've kept the peace for an unknown number of days since Jon allows them passage through the Wall?

In the broader sense, I don't think the situation in the North can deteriorate further or, when the Others make their bid at being a credible apocalyptic threat, the northmen will be so devastated, they can't realistically play a role in the war for the dawn. That leaves the fate of the world entirely up to Dany and her southern forces. Thanks, but I'd rather read about the Starks and folks like the Mormont ladies or Manderly.

One of the more interesting comments GRRM has made recently concerns his dealing with the cliffhangers he left us on, promising, in effect, to sort them out early in the next book. He didn't get too specific on the subject, but I wonder whether Jon's fate was included amongst those cliffhangers he was referring to.

Oh? That's certainly interesting. I know when I see "A Dance With Dragons" and "cliffhanger" in the same sentence, my mind immediately turns to Jon's unfortunate condition, lol.

[blackseer]

From what I understood, the assassination attempt was orchestrated by the stewards and builders of Castle Black, who believed that Jon was betraying his vows for letting the wildlings pass. They've been planning that for a long time, just waiting for the right moment. And Ser Patrek clumsy attempt to steal Val, while all of Jon's supporters and wildlings were at the same place was the perfect moment and so they acted.

We have to remember that Jon's rule was falling apart, even him knew that. Selyse didn't respect him or his choices, her knights were expecting wives and castles, the northmen were unhappy with letting wildlings pass the Wall and the free folk only listened to him because of Tormund. The only reason the free folk agreed to fight for him was because they wanted to fight. Those were the warchiefs, they'd rather fight than hide behind a Wall for months. So, the only ones who were loyal to Jon, or at least wished him well, at Castle Black at the moment were Tormund, Leathers, Val and Mel, probably Satin.

Besides, the knights protecting Selyse and the Northmen are the ones not apt to fight, that's why they were left behind. So the only threat to the NW were the wildlings, but agaisnt the hostages and a good coordination, their best option was to flee.

I'm not saying this happened, but there is a chance it did and would add to the troubles in the North, which would be the most fun way for the story. But this is a opinion of someone who don't see the Others as a apocalyptical threat, just a force of nature doing what it's meant to do. The wights, on the other hand, might be a symptom of something going way wrong, but if they became the last menace, the ending would become just another zombie story and I would be extremely disappointed.

[Yeade]

blackseer, your interpretation of Jon's chapters is quite different from mine. Here's my view of the supposed conspiracy against Jon. Linked also is my re-read, including relevant excerpts from ADWD.←

To add to my other posts, if indeed Marsh's gathered enough followers to assassinate Jon without creating too much dissension in the ranks, why does he not act before Tormund and his people cross the Wall? He has two to three days between Jon ordering him to prepare for the arrival of the wildlings and the main event.

Even if Marsh, for whatever reason, can't manage the deed then, why does he choose to knife Jon in the middle of Castle Black's courtyard? Jon must consult him, presumably in private, on the proposed marches to Winterfell and Hardhome. Surely, it's a better plan to kill Jon when there aren't wildlings everywhere? Jon could've been dead with the wildlings none the wiser, leaving Marsh and his accomplices plenty of time to seize hostages or take other actions to ensure Castle Black remains under their control.

I also question a lot of your conclusions about Jon's standing with Selyse, Flint, Norrey, and the free folk.

True, the northmen aren't pleased to hear Jon intends to allow the wildlings south of the Wall. However, they seem assuaged by Jon demanding and receiving a blood price from Tormund. They compare Jon taking his hostages to how the Kings of Winter treated with their own forefathers, in fact, which I can only assume is a compliment to his leadership.

Selyse isn't all that disrespectful to Jon or his position, IIRC, though she's rather arrogant in general. She does object to Jon basically co-opting the wildlings from her husband's war on the Boltons by refusing to force them to swear to Melisandre's red god or Stannis. Her one recourse, though, is that Stannis will hear of Jon's actions and do... something when he's back on the Wall. Selyse clearly believes she has greater power and influence than she actually does. Besides, Melisandre's the true queen here, and she's determined to win Jon's trust.

As for the wildlings, I and others feel Jon's unwittingly made himself king in Mance Rayder's absence. When the clan chiefs pass the Wall, they offer Jon tribute and swear oaths to him that may very well be the ones they once spoke to Mance. Jon grants them protection and castles along the Wall, treats them fairly but with the caution due to them as free men and women. They agree to fight for him because they want to, yes, but wildlings don't fight for or even listen to anyone who hasn't earned their loyalty. That is the way of the free folk.

Furthermore, do you imagine the rangers, half the NW's strength and its fighting core, are perfectly fine with another Lord Commander being assassinated by sworn brothers? These men have fought wildlings and know them to be just humans, unlike the Others and wights.

A fair number of the builders and stewards in Castle Black personally witness Jon's defense of the Wall against Mance Rayder in ASOS, too. They owe him their lives, and you think they also conspire to murder him? That they believe Marsh's claims that Jon's turned traitor over the wildlings? In all honesty, Jon could've done that far easier by not warning the NW of the Thenns, not taking command of the Wall after Donal Noye's death, or simply opening the gate to Mance.

Lastly, whether the Others are waging war on Westeros or a force of nature that's an integral part of winter, they've been presented in the story thus far as apocalyptic. Frankly, I find it really odd that you seem to disassociate the wights from the Others given that the latter are responsible for raising the former and probably control them through magic similar to skinchanging.

At any rate, while there's almost sure to be a giant zombie fight in ASOIAF's future--else what are the dragons good for?--my money's on the Others being a splinter group of the children of the forest who've decided to resist the advent of man and decline of magic by force. The resolution will probably be a bit more complicated than burning everything undead because the Others are intelligent creatures. Bran may negotiate a truce, but mankind must be victorious on the field of battle first or the terms won't be favorable.

[protar]

I think that the NW will be at least temporarily broken, with the Queen's Men holding the Wall in an uneasy alliance with the Widlings and hill tribes. Even if Marsh had the whole watch on his side which he most certainly didn't there's no way they'd be able to subdue all those other forces. As interesting as it would I still don't think we'll get a large period without a POV on the Wall. Telling events after the fact is a good tactic, but I hardly think something like Jon ressurection will the glossed over. More likely Mel will get a POV sacrificing herself to bring him back, which I don't think will happen until the last quarter of the book.

[blackseer]

Yeade, the important point, the one that everyone seems to agree, is that Castle Black is filled with very different organizations that are linked only by Jon. With Jon dead, they will break, but what will happen afterwards is what we are discussing, but is offtopic and would be up to interpretation and endless discussion. The only things worth pointing out here are:

- Bowen Marsh is not the most brave of the NW, so he couldn't take the responsability of murdering Jon by himself. So he had to surround Jon with others from his group and Ser Patrek misfortune was the perfect chance.

- The nature of the Others are being debated everywhere on this forum. But one point is that there is no evidence so far that connects Others and wights, only what the characters believe so. There was one book that Sam found, but he himself said that those reports weren't trustable. The two ocasions when Others appeared, they only attacked after being challanged/threated, and wights are known to be raised even if not killed by an Other.

Going back to the discussion about POV. You want Jon to fight Ramsay, right? I also want to see that, even if Martin usually ignores this kind of fight match-ups. I personally don't think both Boltons will die in TWoW (at least not in the battle of Ice), so even if Jon's revival happens later in the books (in the last quarter, as I agree with protar in something), he still has a chance to meet and kill the Bastard of Bolton. I also believe Theon and Jon will become allies and that we shouldn't have Ghost POVs, but that's another discussion.

[protar]

Yeade, the important point, the one that everyone seems to agree, is that Castle Black is filled with very different organizations that are linked only by Jon. With Jon dead, they will break, but what will happen afterwards is what we are discussing, but is offtopic and would be up to interpretation and endless discussion. The only things worth pointing out here are:

- Bowen Marsh is not the most brave of the NW, so he couldn't take the responsability of murdering Jon by himself. So he had to surround Jon with others from his group and Ser Patrek misfortune was the perfect chance.

- The nature of the Others are being debated everywhere on this forum. But one point is that there is no evidence so far that connects Others and wights, only what the characters believe so. There was one book that Sam found, but he himself said that those reports weren't trustable. The two ocasions when Others appeared, they only attacked after being challanged/threated, and wights are known to be raised even if not killed by an Other.

Going back to the discussion about POV. You want Jon to fight Ramsay, right? I also want to see that, even if Martin usually ignores this kind of fight match-ups. I personally don't think both Boltons will die in TWoW (at least not in the battle of Ice), so even if Jon's revival happens later in the books (in the last quarter, as I agree with protar in something), he still has a chance to meet and kill the Bastard of Bolton. I also believe Theon and Jon will become allies and that we shouldn't have Ghost POVs, but that's another discussion.

You sound as though that's a rare thing :P

[Yeade]

Telling events after the fact is a good tactic, but I hardly think something like Jon's resurrection will be glossed over.

You know, has the resurrection of any character been seen in a POV? Both Beric Dondarrion and UnCat's revivals are told after the fact by Thoros, IIRC? To Arya and Brienne? Qyburn's making of FrankenGregor is only hinted at in reports to Cersei, too.

Neither Thoros nor Qyburn has a POV like Melisandre does, of course, so Jon's case may be different. Though I don't agree that Melisandre and Jon himself, possibly even Bran, reminiscing about whatever happens to Jon after his ADWD cliffhanger is glossing over anything. No more than R+L=J is glossed over in AGOT because it largely exists in Ned's memory.

blackseer, yeah, the two of us are pretty off-topic, huh? I'm discussing Marsh, his motivations, and the fallout of the assassination attempt in the ADWD forum proper if you care to join me there. A couple quick hits, and everyone can return to speculating on the POVs of TWOW.

Bowen Marsh is not the most brave of the NW, so he couldn't take the responsibility of murdering Jon by himself.

Marsh is a coward, yes. However, I think his fear of reprisal by the Boltons upon learning of Stannis's apparent demise in the Pink Letter outpaces his fear of the wildling reaction to killing Jon and leads him to a desperate act of suicidal folly.

The nature of the Others is being debated everywhere on this forum. But one point is that there is no evidence so far that connects the Others and wights, only what the characters believe so.

I suppose, then, it's just a great coincidence that the dead are rising when the Others have reappeared in numbers for the first time in probably hundreds of years? Personally, I don't believe there is such a thing as coincidence in fiction.

Also, I'd say that Waymar Royce feels pretty threatened when the Other he faces advances, sword of ice bared in hand, despite his warnings to not come closer. Being surrounded by five Others while he duels another, who strikes the first blow, is hard to see as anything but an intimidation tactic. Grenn hardly deserves death for poking at an Other with his torch, and I can't guess what you expect the Other to do to Sam after killing Small Paul. If the Other has a right to self-defense, then so does Sam.

Man, I know some folks dislike considering the Others supernatural bogeymen, but this sympathy for the devil can be taken a bit too far...

You want Jon to fight Ramsay, right? I also want to see that, even if Martin usually ignores this kind of fight match-up. I personally don't think both Boltons will die in TWOW (at least not in the Battle of Ice), so even if Jon's revival happens later in the books [snip], he still has a chance to meet and kill the Bastard of Bolton. I also believe Theon and Jon will become allies and that we shouldn't have Ghost POVs, but that's another discussion.

Giving Jon what seems to be an Unspoken Plan in his two-hour council with Tormund before his speech in the Shieldhall is a waste of a plot device, IMO, unless said plan will actually be put to use against Ramsay. The Boltons I want dead or otherwise out of the picture about a third of the way into TWOW because I think subplots like Davos's search for Rickon and Asha's bid to challenge the kingsmoot hang on Stannis being victorious in the North. Since Rickon's claim to Winterfell is likely tied to Sansa and Littlefinger's doings in the Vale, delaying one development means delaying the other. My preferred northern succession crisis needs to wait on Jon and Robb's will, too.

Theon needs to live at least long enough to help Asha, Aeron (confirmed as a POV?), and the Reader oust Euron. Or I'll wonder why GRRM hasn't dropped the ironborn already. I, too, believe Jon can overcome his initial reaction of reaching for Longclaw to chop Theon's head off, lol, and accept Theon as, perhaps, a brother. You and I are also in agreement on having no desire to read Ghost POVs.

[protar]

You know, has the resurrection of any character been seen in a POV? Both Beric Dondarrion and UnCat's revivals are told after the fact by Thoros, IIRC? To Arya and Brienne? Qyburn's making of FrankenGregor is only hinted at in reports to Cersei, too.

It's not quite the same though, the reveal of say Uncat was very dramatic. If we just got a Jon chapter going: "and oh Jon was ressurected." that's going to be pretty lame. So I think we'll have to see the resurrection.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

It seems pretty obvious that Davos will be a POV character in TWOW, but I am wondering how his timeline (and indeed, a few of the earlier chapters of the book) will weld into the events happening in the North.

Davos' fourth chapter in ADWD was about a third of the way through. Since then nothing has been heard of him. I considered the events following his final chapter to the end of the book (in Winterfell) to take up roughly two to three months.

Now, considering the sail to Skagos would take say, a week or two, we have six weeks worth of unaccounted Davos action. On the one hand, GRRM could rectify this by simply having him return back into the narrative via another POV, or simply place Davos' first TWOW POV with him returning back to the mainland. However, I don't really think he'll do this (seems somewhat tacky plus I think he would like to place us on Skagos, both for his enjoyment and ours), especially as from a selfish point of view, I just want to see a unicorn dammit.

So, I'm therefore thinking that the early stages of TWOW might very well be rather Davos heavy.

Agree/Disagree?

[houseHB]

How about introducing a new character POV? Osha, her POV can explain where her and Rickon and Shaggy Dog have been laying low.

[Andrei Gumeni]

Davos will not die.The guy cheated dead in every book he's been.We tought he died in CoK at Black Water,we tought he will die in SoS because he wanted to kill Melisandre and Stannis was very pissed at him and we tought he dies in FfC. 3 times he cheated death normal,not with some supernatural stuff,so my money is on him living at least throught WoW.

[Ser Pollo Loco]

It seems pretty obvious that Davos will be a POV character in TWOW, but I am wondering how his timeline (and indeed, a few of the earlier chapters of the book) will weld into the events happening in the North.

Davos' fourth chapter in ADWD was about a third of the way through. Since then nothing has been heard of him. I considered the events following his final chapter to the end of the book (in Winterfell) to take up roughly two to three months.

Now, considering the sail to Skagos would take say, a week or two, we have six weeks worth of unaccounted Davos action. On the one hand, GRRM could rectify this by simply having him return back into the narrative via another POV, or simply place Davos' first TWOW POV with him returning back to the mainland. However, I don't really think he'll do this (seems somewhat tacky plus I think he would like to place us on Skagos, both for his enjoyment and ours), especially as from a selfish point of view, I just want to see a unicorn dammit.

So, I'm therefore thinking that the early stages of TWOW might very well be rather Davos heavy.

Agree/Disagree?

I have a pet theory that several of the pov's will "jump ahead" while the others catch up. i think the first Davos Pov he will already have Rickon and will recap, i think the same will happen for Sansa and to a lesser extent Dany as well

[Arkash]

I was thinking the same thing too... I guess we'll have a whole Davos chapter, his first, where he will remember all he has done during the last months/weeks and only catch with the present at the end of the chapter.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

I'm sceptical on that point tbh, simply because narrating through memory makes said narrators significantly more prone to unreliability, and also leads to a lesser degree of detail (correct me if I'm wrong, but whenever I recall a flashback, it always seems to have focused on a very precise and centralised event, with little exterior detail).

Because of this, I don't think we'll just get a picture of Skagos via Davos' memory. This place has been built up as some wild cannibal rock, now inhabited by a direwolf, a wildling and a "dead" Stark. It's too mysterious and intriguing to not present in "real-time" detail IMO.

I'm also wondering when our next Damphair, Sansa and Samwell chapters will kick in, either post ADWD or during its latter chapters.

[CrypticWeirwood]

I'm also wondering when our next Damphair, Sansa, and Samwell chapters will kick in, either post ADWD or during its latter chapters.

What’s the interest in Aeron Greyjoy?

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

I think Aeron is a very interesting character and I believe he's planning something supernatural to deal with Euron.

[Arkash]

GRRM said himself that there was something really nasty about Aeron in the chapter he wanted to read (when he read Arianne's instead)... so really eager to see... maybe seing a real Kraken, who knows...

[Faint]

I still get the sense that Aeron will be the end of Euron. I struggle to envision another reason for keeping him around.

[Yeade]

[T]he reveal of, say, UnCat was very dramatic. If we just got a Jon chapter going, "and, oh, Jon was resurrected," that's going to be pretty lame.

Well. I do favor a pretty dramatic reveal of Jon, alive but not necessarily well, in the prologue, followed by a blackout on Wall POVs until the Winterfell characters catch up on the timeline, so... ^_^

Regarding Davos, I agree with The Third Reed that GRRM's likely to write of Davos's adventures on Skagos in real time, at least in part. I imagine it'll be similar to Davos's POVs in ADWD, which cover less important details like his sea voyages in summary but slow down, narratively speaking, for major events like his audiences with Manderly.

As for the Greyjoys, I actually feel Moqorro's vision of a tentacled, one-eyed monster sailing seas of blood suggests Euron's following Victarion across the Narrow Sea to Dany. In addition, one interpretation of Melisandre's vision of towers collapsing by the sea is that she's seen, not Eastwatch, but a metaphor for an uprising against Euron's rule led by Aeron and the Blacktydes(?). I'm honestly not all that familiar with this theory...

Basically, Euron could be ousted as king in his absence from Pyke, IMO, by some combination of Asha (with Theon as her pawn to challenge the kingsmoot), Aeron (as the leader of a religious crusade against his brother), and maybe the Reader. Euron and Victarion have unfinished business to settle, and it'd certainly be interesting for them to meet in Dany's presence.