[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 4

[WetHair]

Remember folks, before we get all giddy about Stannis and whatever intriguing plans he has, the Pink Letter almost certainly came after this chapter. Supposedly Stannis is dead. Personally I don't believe that either but it IS a possibility. We tempt fate if we don't even take the possibility into account. Don't we?

About Theon..........we all know why he acted as he did since we saw those actions from his POV. He isn't evil. I would be devastated if he died though I believe it more likely than not to happen. But in either case I believe he has suffered enough and as someone said earlier, without his cock (if indeed the whole package is missing) he is twice the man he was before. Or words to that effect. Detractors, Theon's moment of goodness is coming closer and, like with Jaimie's metamorphisis, the majority of readers will be on his side.

[Nev yn]

Remember folks, before we get all giddy about Stannis and whatever intriguing plans he has, the Pink Letter almost certainly came after this chapter. Supposedly Stannis is dead. Personally I don't believe that either but it IS a possibility. We tempt fate if we don't even take the possibility into account. Don't we?

I like Stannis after ADWD, but I'm secretly kind of hoping that at least that part of the Pink Letter is true. It would be a pretty righteous trolling of the fanbase.

ADWD: Stannis is dead!

TWOW Preview: Wait, Stannis is utterly awesome and caught the traitors, so he couldn't have died.

TWOW: Nope, Stannis is awesome but still really dead.

Of course, as of the preview the odds seem to overwhelmingly favor Stannis. So there would probably need to be another betrayal, like Manderly did it after Davos gave him Rickon (or the hill people do it). This would also tie up the loose end of why none of the Northmen let Stannis know that there are still male Starks living; but it wouldn't make sense for this to happen while Ramsay still holds Winterfell.

[Jerritus]

Sort of off topic I guess, but is it ever mentioned how ravens get back into their respective castles?

Them being 1 way birds seems a bit stupid, because that way if you want to exchange letters with someone, he has to have a dozen birds trained to fly to your place, and then you have to have people who take the birds he sends you back to him. D:

You send someone a message, and get pissed because he doesn't reply, and then go to war with him just to later realize that the receiver of your letter had ran out of ravens that fly to you, because you forgot to send someone to take his birds back to him.

[FanTasy]

http://asoiaf.wester...aven-logistics/

http://asoiaf.wester...668-raven-mail/

In these threads and up thread here there was a discussion of the logistics of one-way-ravens.

Most are one-way-ravens, which are used for one time only - or have to be brought back.

The more smart and costly ravens could be used for return post to sender.

^{edited for wrong threads}

[MMAJim]

Blanket apology for coming late to the party, but I always have log in problems. I have gotten through most of Part 1 and 2 of this discussion, admittedly skimming through some parts. I didn't see a lot of or any definitive talk about Karstarks's ravens.

I ask this question as someone who often gets things wrong. Isn't it almost 100% conclusive that someone from Stannis's location.. presumably Stannis, is going to send false information to Winterfell via the confiscated ravens? Isn't that the only place that the ravens will go anyway? I still don't understand how those particular ravens could enhance any theory about Stannis sending the pink letter. Maybe he did still send the pink letter, (I lean towards not likely) but the Karstark ravens are headed to Winterfell only correct?

Now is also the time to admit I only read through the chapter once, and hopefully will again soon.

[Lord.Snow]

"The map is not the land "

[Lord.Snow]

The IRON THRONE should be sat by Stanis- its pretty clear...

Robert hatted sitting on that things - he would have prefered a lazy boy with cup holders im sure

Its ugly and it will cut you.

Renly would have torn his fancy cloths on it.

Danny has no idea what it really intailes- sitting something iron in the dead of winter! she would prefer to sit on dario's cock

or else live in a house with a red door lol

Donal Noyle compares stanis to iron- he is cold - and in the dead of winter he will do his duty- He wont like it but he'll do it.

Clearly the char itself was made for a man like Stanis- Its always been his in my opinion.

[Eddward Stark]

Remember folks, before we get all giddy about Stannis and whatever intriguing plans he has, the Pink Letter almost certainly came after this chapter.

We can pretty much conclude that the Pink Letter chapter takes place after the Theon Preview chapter

From GRRM's Not a Blog:

"(The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE)."

Isn't it almost 100% conclusive that someone from Stannis's location.. presumably Stannis, is going to send false information to Winterfell via the confiscated ravens? Isn't that the only place that the ravens will go anyway? I still don't understand how those particular ravens could enhance any theory about Stannis sending the pink letter. Maybe he did still send the pink letter, (I lean towards not likely) but the Karstark ravens are headed to Winterfell only correct?

I also agree that it is wildly improbable that Stannis sent the letter to Jon. He is not the type to try to trick Jon in this manner, and there is almost no conceivable way that Stannis would be able to write in Ramsay's style -- referring to his Reek, etc. -- so convincingly (to the reader). Theon could help him write it, but that sounds silly to me. It does, however, seem very likely that Stannis would use at least 1 of those 2 ravens to send a letter to Winterfell with misinformation...perhaps saying that Stannis was killed by the Karstarks, Manderlys, and Freys. He could put the Karstarks' seal on it.

[Michael Jon Snow]

I agree with Eddward Stark. I think many of the "un-truths" in the pink letter may have originated from Stannis, but the letter itself came from Ramsey. Stannis is going to use one of the ravens to send back misinformation after the battle as method of getting Ramsey to open his gates to the returning victors. People believe what they want to believe and see what they expect to see. Telling Ramsey that his trick with Karstark was successful will be exactly what Ramsey wants to hear. A battle weary army arriving in Karstark, Frey and Manderly colors will be easy to sneak past the sentries who expect exactly that.

The content of the pink letter, read now after the gift, sound like they were written by Ramsey after he gets the letter from Stannis, but before Stannis has retaken Winterfel.

[Lady Octarina]

Fighting against Bolton =/= fighting for Stannis. Manderly doesn't need Davos to return with Rickon to fight against the Freys or Boltons. (tho I will concede that word that Davos has returned might have been what caused the change in Manderly's behavior at the end of Dance, I would argue that he might have had some other indicator that it was time to turn on Bolton.)

I would agree that Rickon's safe return and Stannis recognizing Rickon as the Lord of Winterfel would be a requirement for an alliance between Manderly and Stannis.

The thing is, Manderly won't openly fight against Bolton unless he and the rest of the northmen have something around which they can be united. They won't be united around Stannis, I agree, but around Rickon, and if Davos is the means through which they get their Stark back to Winterfell, they will use it. Remember the North is broken, they need some kind of guarantee against the Boltons and their allies - mainly Freys and Lannisters (though Freys are the immediate danger; but they don't know yet of the difficulties the Lannisters are facing in the South. They won't risk fighting them if they don't have their Stark back, and that leads to fighting along Stannis. They're no lions, but I believe they pay their debts.

Now, about this discussion about Stannis being dead and the pink letter... yes, I believe there is a great possibility of Theon's chapter happening before the letter is sent to Jon. But that doesn't mean the letter is true and Stannis is dead. I mean, Ramsay is absolutely insane, we can't expect him to be coherent all the time. Not to mention that the letter has a frantic tone, it gives us the impression of something written in a rush, and, unless it's a trap, I could never understand how Roose would have let Ramsay start a fight with the Lord Commander and the wildlings (the mention to Mance would certainly draw wildlings to Jon's side, they had to foresee it). So, this is what I think happened: Stannis won that fight with whatever his strategy was, he gained some more allies among the northmen, and Winterfell is either under attack, or under siege. Ramsay, in a tight situation, losing "his" castle and not knowing what to do (I mean, he might be great at torturing one person at a time, but I simply don't see him succesful in a real fight), would send that deranged letter to Jon because it made sense to him, maybe as one last attempt to prove to himself he had everything under control.

Besides, Stannis is necessary because no one else will fight the Others. I'm not saying he will defeat them, they might even arrive South, but if there isn't a line of defense they'd be south in a few hundred pages, and everything would be lost before some AA came back to life or some dragons decided to cross the narrow sea. Which simply wouldn't make any sense, in terms of the story moving forward. The Others need to face some resistance before getting South, however feeble that might be.

[Michael Jon Snow]

@Lady Octarina

I am not so sure. Manderly killed the 3 Freys and baked them into pies as soon as he knew he could get away with it. He faked Davos' death. He picked a fight right in front of Bolton in the great hall. I think Manderly is chomping at the bit for some payback. He can taste it, so to speak. I think that if he has a chance to wipe out the Freys in such a way that word of it won't make it back to Bolton, he will.

[Lady Octarina]

@Lady Octarina

I am not so sure. Manderly killed the 3 Freys and baked them into pies as soon as he knew he could get away with it. He faked Davos' death. He picked a fight right in front of Bolton in the great hall. I think Manderly is chomping at the bit for some payback. He can taste it, so to speak. I think that if he has a chance to wipe out the Freys in such a way that word of it won't make it back to Bolton, he will.

Exactly that, I agree with you. He is already fighting Bolton and the Freys, but not openly (except for the occasional argument). It's just small actions, nothing that can be perceived and proved, because in that case he would have no chance to fight back. My point is, if he means to actually defeat them he needs stronger allies (i.e. the other Northern lords that would only do something if they had a Stark back to reclaim Winterfell, and Stannis, who so far is the only contestant that actually cared enough about the North for them to consider lending their support to him). His current actions will annoy them at most, and create a belligerant (?) mood that might or not result in something.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Robert hated sitting on that thing — he would have prefered a lazy boy with cup holders im sure

Actually, it’s Renly who would have like the lazy boy cupholder, kinda like Ganymede to Zeus.

[pumsika]

I dont know if this has already been discussed, I didnt find it.

What is the matter with this Braavosi banker? Theon mentions two times that he has no blood.

You will never get a drop of blood from that one, my lord, he might have told him

that bloodless Braavosi banker

So, is he another kind of an undead person?

[jon rr stark]

This is the chapter I have waited for, as is shows the true skill and ability that Stannis possesses. Up until now I shuddered at the thought of Stannis winning the iron throne. I thought that it would be the worst outcome that GRRM could have written. He is still as hard as iron, but has shown some inclination to bend ever so slightly when important matters are at issue.

Though I love the Roose and Ramsay characters, they are in need of some of Stannis' hard justice. I secretly hope that Roose finds a way to survive. The Freys on the other hand must be extinguished!!!

My main concern with Stannis plan concerns Justin Massey. He seems like false coin and in this for his own personal gain. He is not likely to find any sell swords across the sea due to the Meereen war. However he will find Dany. House Massey is an ancient House sworn to the iron throne. They served house Targaryen for hundreds of years. I could easily see him working out a side deal with Dany.

hes more likely to find Ayra. Or rather Arya will find him. A Stark in the hand is worth a whole army in the north. More importantly Arya will know her family is still alive

I think as stated above Stannis uses the ravens to send misinformation may be the source of Ramseys information in the letter. However doesn't Theon say Ramsey is in the field following The Freys and Manderleys?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Yes he does. My thought is that Stannis will capture Ramsay and torture/persuade him to fill in some of the missing pieces. My only problem with is theory is why would Stannis want to mislead Jon. Maybe to test Jon's loyalty, but it was Jon who sent him the iron bank and the letter exposing Arnolf.

[Lady Octarina]

I dont know if this has already been discussed, I didnt find it.

What is the matter with this Braavosi banker? Theon mentions two times that he has no blood.

So, is he another kind of an undead person?

I don't think so; it seems to me he means the banker is either a coward or someone who won't compromise, in the sense that he will choose neither side, just remain safe and protect the Iron Bank's interests.

[Grail King]

I don't think so; it seems to me he means the banker is either a coward or someone who won't compromise, in the sense that he will choose neither side, just remain safe and protect the Iron Bank's interests.

Well he made the trek in blizzard conditions, got word to Stannis about the Karstarks , so I would not call him a coward, I thought it meant protecting the IB interest, or very tough negotiator.

[Glyn Tarvoke]

I disagree. One of the main things that drove Theon in the past, besides a need for love and approval, was his pride, which ulitmately lead to his downfall. Theon's pride has been broken now (along with his body) and he's been completely transformed by it. I don't see how he's selfish either, other than there's really no one he has to look out for but himself, but that was before Jeyne. He was clearly always sympathetic to her situation; he was just powerless to help her, for the most part. He did stick his neck out for her, though, and in the end, knowing what was waiting for him if he failed, risked his life to save her. So he was definitely aware of all the long term consequences of his actions. And he still was intent on helping her after their escape so it wasn't just about saving his own skin.

Strangely enough, I think Theon's more of a man now with his cock cut off than he was with one.

If Theon is "redeemed" as you think, can you explain to me why Theon--when Theon lept from the tower with Jeyne-- took it upon himself to land on top of Jeyne Poole rather than being a man and placing her on top so she'd land on him? Or why Theon did not tell Jeyne's true identity when they reached the Umbars? Or when they reached Stannis?

I'm hopeful Theon will improve as a human being but IMO even in the Dec 2012 sample that Theon's still the self centered selfish jerk, aspiring for wealth and glory and so egocentric he believes himself honest, but no more honest or trustworthy than when we first met him in AGOT. Whatever his flaws, I think flawed Theon will try and redeem his betrayal of the Starks.

[WetHair]

If Theon is "redeemed" as you think, can you explain to me why Theon--when Theon lept from the tower with Jeyne-- took it upon himself to land on top of Jeyne Poole rather than being a man and placing her on top so she'd land on him? Or why Theon did not tell Jeyne's true identity when they reached the Umbars? Or when they reached Stannis?

I don't think Theon positioned Jeyne so he could land on top of her! :drunk: It said "Theon grabbed Jeyne about the waist and jumped." He thought *&%$#*!@#, grabbed Jeyne and jumped. I think not telling Mors Umber or Stannis helped Jeyne and well as Theon; as Jeyne she had no importance, as "Arya" she had much, much more.