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The Roaring Bear

Theory on the Westerlings (Spoilers)

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Oh the Westerlings were a setup from square 1. I'm 50/50 as to Jeyne's knowledge of it, though.

I agree it was a setup, but am now convinced Jeyne was in on it all along. There history and allegiance is to the South and the Lannisters. A brilliant move by Tywin for sure. Another case of Stark honor being used to their detriment.

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Yeah, being a dog person I got very suspicious about Grey Wind's reaction as well. And it drove me absolutely mental that Robb kept ignoring his reactions. He just used him to rip some enemies apart but otherwise treated him like a usual dog. Especially when he refused to get into the castle, it made me want to yell at them. Cat was right, Grey Wind belonged to Robb's side, not in the kennels like a dog. Especially since Grey Wind has always been the most obedient and well-behaved direwolf of the litter and Robb should have known he's not just "misbehaving":

It is revealed in ASoS that Tywin planned the Red Wedding in conjunction with the Freys and it was also stated that the Freys wanted revenge, yet would have never dared this attack if they hadn't had Tywin's backup.

However, as far as the Westerling's reaction goes, I have always wondered why they would give their consent to Jeyne's marriage and abandon their claim and castle? I can understand why Jeyne would do it, but her whole family just thought "well okay, Jeyne, likes the dude, so let's risk all of our lives and lands and follow him"? They knew Grey Wind was the key and would not stop reminding Robb.

But I also don't think that everyone in the Westerling family was equally informed. Much like the Lannisters who never plan things simultaneously, but everyone has their own game to play. I believe that Jeyne didn't know about it. Jeyne sneaking away with the Backfish with a little Robb baby would be awesome, though. I just wish there was an equal solution for little Grey Wind puppies, though.

God, I'm such a girl sometimes!

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I agree, that there must have been some kind of setup, but not from Jeyne herself. She doesn't seem too bright and scheming to me - or she is a rather good actress.

Like many others here, I got suspicious about that family, when Grey WInd didn't like them. When Robb ignored him and even shoved him away to the kennels, I was rather mad at him (Robb, not GW).

As for Tywin Lannister being in league with Walder Frey: If I remember correctly, Tywin even said so to Tyrion. I guess, he mentioned, that he left the details to Frey however.

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So, there is so much emphasis on Tywin Lannister's wrath. How all of his bannerman are afraid of him due to how he has dealt with betrayal in the past. That being said he doesn't seem overly concerned about the Westerling alliance with the North. It almost seems as though he knows something no one else does.

Almost done with a re-read of A Storm of Swords and cannot agree with you more. Good points raised by the members already to support The Medievalist's theory, like Grey Wind misliking Ser Rolph Spicer. The part of Lord Tywin Lannister awarding lordships and pardons to the Spicers/Westelings seemed too smelly given the tale of the Rains of Castamere.

I mean to add another subtle evidence to support the Westerling-Lord Tywin theory. During the very first of Tyrion's chapters in ASoS, we have Tyrion visit Lord Tywin, in this chapter Lord Tywin is writing "important letters". Post the Red Wedding, Tyrion cites the "important letters" and during my first read I assumed them to be letters between Lord Tywin, Lord Bolton and Lord Frey setting up the Red Wedding, partly due to the way Tyrion cites them in-text.

However, I now believe the beginning of ASoS to be a bit premature for the set up of the RW since the news of Robb's breach of the betrothal would not reach The Twins until after one of Catelyn's chapters during which she notices the angry Frey's leaving Riverrun. Therefore, the "important letters" must have been Lord Tywin planning the entire Westerling trap.

No doubt that this trap led to the RW itself, that is, the RW was an outcome of the entire plan not the plan itself. Lord Tywin's wit, Bolton's treachery and Frey's existence led to the RW.

The timeline seems just right for all the points proposed by The Medievalist to fit together.

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On the whole I like this theory and it makes me hate Tywin just a little bit more. However, (someone might have brought this up before) how would Tywin have known that Robb would have attacked the Crag? Assuming he knew that Robb was in the west (the timeline between Robb's surprise attack on Lannisport and his storming the Crag befuddles me) would he have had enough time to set up this plan with the Westerling matriarch and how could he have anticipated that Robb would have attacked the Crag, especially when Tyrion thinks to himself how worthless that castle is?

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