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As some of you who've read my interpretations of prophecies before know, I hew to the idea that "dragons" in prophecy are not literal dragons, but refer to Targaryens.

We've seen visions unfold this way a couple of times in the Dunk and Egg stories:

1. In "The Hedge Knight," Daeron Targaryen (Egg's brother) has a vision of a large dead red dragon falling on top of Dunk, but he survives. The "red dragon" ends up being Baelor Breakspear, who took a blow to the head in a Trial of Seven.

2. In "The Mystery Knight," a fiddler (Daemon II Blackfyre) tells Dunk that he's seen a dragon hatching out of an egg at Whitewalls. This turns out to be Egg/Aegon V, who comes through a Blackfyre Rebellion with new fierceness and maturity.

In both of these cases, even though the dragons in the visions were actual dragons, when the prophecies unfold, the "dragons" are Targaryens.

Flash forward to Aegon V's reign. Jenny of Oldstones brings the Ghost of High Heart to court. We know that she was the one who told Aegon V that the Prince That Was Promised would come from Aerys and Rhaella's line. Not only does this set up the ASOIAF narrative, it sets a precedent for Aegon holding the woman's visions in high regard and listening to her.

We know that Aegon, Dunk, Duncan the Small and (I presume?) Jenny died in a fire at Summerhall and that the tragedy more than likely had something to do with hatching a dragon's egg. We're told that it was Aegon's decision to let his sons marry for love that culminated in the tragedy (I believe it's referred to as sorcery, fire and treason in varying combinations). I think this is a nod to Duncan the Small (the Prince of Dragonflies) falling in love with Jenny of Oldstones, which caused him to give up his crown for her (why would he have to? question for another time) and inadvertently led to the Ghost of High Heart's presence at court and her visions being taken seriously/literally. When Arya encounters her, the Ghost tells her that she's tasted grief at Summerhall, suggesting that at the very least, she was involved, and might even harbor some culpability.

So what happened? (Edited for clarity because apparently it's not that obvious that this is a theory) I hypothesize that The Ghost of High Heart told Aegon V that she saw a dragon hatching out of Summerhall, maybe even "out of a fire" at Summerhall. Like the earlier examples of dragons in prophecy, this vision would have shown its seer a literal dragon, but not actually referred to one. Having already listened to the Ghost's advice about Rhaella and Aerys' marriage, Aegon again took her at her word — her literal word — and attempted to hatch an actual dragon at Summerhall. It obviously failed, the keep burned to a ruin and a lot of people died.

That same day, Rhaegar was born to Rhaella and had a deep-seated melancholic connection to Summerhall for the rest of his life. Rhaegar was the dragon that hatched out of Summerhall.

Other than being a theory as to how and why the Summerhall tragedy occurred, what does this matter? I think it's threefold: It would be yet another instance of "dragons" in prophecy referring to a Targaryen and not a literal dragon (which I believe has implications for AA/PTWP), it broadly shows the danger of taking any prophecy at literal value, and it further illustrates that when it comes to literal dragons, the Targaryens are unstable and prone to nuttiness, even a saner one like Aegon.

I'm pretty sure that the Dunk and Egg stories will end with the Summerhall tragedy, so this should be either confirmed or debunked in good time. I think it's interesting that, within these novellas, we've already had multiple instances where "dragon" equals "Targaryen." Those instances could be a setup for the Summerhall narrative in this particular set of novellas, as well as a clue as to how to interpret dragon prophecies in the main ASOIAF storyline.

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Interesting theory. Do we know for sure if the Dunk and Egg stories will include Summerhall? I'm wondering if this is something that came from Martin or if the fans just assume it. It does seem like it would be a good way to end that saga, with the disaster and Rhaegar's birth ushering in a new era for Westeros. I'd love to see the event firsthand.

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Interesting theory. Do we know for sure if the Dunk and Egg stories will include Summerhall? I'm wondering if this is something that came from Martin or if the fans just assume it. It does seem like it would be a good way to end that saga, with the disaster and Rhaegar's birth ushering in a new era for Westeros. I'd love to see the event firsthand.

I'm about 80% sure that Martin said he'd eventually include Summerhall. Someone who pays more attention to the SSMs can corroborate this ir shoot it down.

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I 'm a bit unclear about the genealogy and who actually died there. Was Egg and Dunk still alive by that time? I am pretty sure Aerys II was Egg's grandson and that he became king in Summerhall.

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I 'm a bit unclear about the genealogy and who actually died there. Was Egg and Dunk still alive by that time? I am pretty sure Aerys II was Egg's grandson and that he became king in Summerhall.

Aegon V is Egg. Dunk is Duncan the Tall, who became Aegon V's Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. Aegon V, Dunk and Duncan the Small, Aegon V's oldest son, all died at Summerhall. After this happened Jaehaerys II, another of Aegon's sons, became king. Rhaelle Targaryen was Aegon V's daughter, Duncan the Small and Jaehaerys II's sister and Robert Baratheon's grandmother. Jaehaerys II also "married for love," and is the father of Aerys II and Rhaella, the grandfather of Rhaegar, Viserys and Dany and the great-grandfather of Rhaegar's children.

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This theory makes sense to me.

What the 'Ghost' saw was a prophecy about Rhaegar's birth. Not of literal dragons.

I would even point out a couple of other visions, from the ASOIAF series, that the prophecies, at least some of them, are not literal.

For example, Bran is the Winged Wolf. When Melisandre looks into and sees a thousand eyes staring back at her, that is to be interpreted as Bloodraven and so on.

Do you think, this is why, Rhaegar had the misconception that he was the PWWP? Maestor Aemon mentions this in AFFC, doesn't he? That Rhaegar falsely believed he was the PWWP. Maybe he figured out that the dragons in the prophecies weren't literal and they refer to the Targs.

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I know Egg is Aegon V. I was not sure about the timeline. Jaehaerys ruled for only three years, from 259 to 262. Do we have a definite date for Summerhall? 259 would make Rhaegar 24 when he died which would fit better with him having two children but 21 isn't totally out of the question either.

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I know Egg is Aegon V. I was not sure about the timeline. Jaehaerys ruled for only three years, from 259 to 262. Do we have a definite date for Summerhall? 259 would make Rhaegar 24 when he died which would fit better with him having two children but 21 isn't totally out of the question either.

... It was Aegon V's death that made Jaehaerys II king. So you answered your own question.

I would even point out a couple of other visions, from the ASOIAF series, that the prophecies, at least some of them, are not literal.

This is definitely the case. I'm just looking at the dragon prophecies specifically because a lot of people think that Dany's literal dragons refer to the dragons in the AA/PTWP prophecies. I think that the actual dragons are incidental/lateral and not necessarily to do with how the prophecies will unfold or the parameters within which they'll be met. By embracing her Targaryen-ness, Dany could still fit the AA/PTWP prophecy. I'm just highly skeptical that she meets it by hatching the literal dragons, when there are multiple instances that show these prophecies are not meant to mean literal dragons.

It's also possible, yes, that this is where Rhaegar got the idea that he was the PTWP. If he's privy to the Ghost's prophecy (if I'm right and that's what it was), he could draw his own conclusion that he was the dragon that was "hatched out of Summerhall." For whatever reason, he might be unaware of the other dragon-Targaryen visions and think that he is the only dragon that has been "seen." Following the translation that Maester Aemon subscribes to, Rhaegar could equate "prince (that was promised)" to "dragon" and then see himself as being the "dragon" that hatched and thus the "prince (that was promised)." Where this line of thinking (on Rhaegar's part) obviously breaks down is, like I said, the fact that other Targaryens have also been the subject of these dragon-visions and it did not mean that they were the PTWP.

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Aerys I was fervenlty looking at prophecies while Bloodraven was hand and as far as we know the Ghost's prophesy did not involve any dragons being born. It was I believe that the PtwP would be born of Aerys II and Rhaela's line. In any case the Targaryens' dreams seems to me like a plot device to get them to do really stupid things. In hindsight Rhaegar probably kidnapped Lyanna because he saw it in a dream.

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Aerys I was fervenlty looking at prophecies while Bloodraven was hand and as far as we know the Ghost's prophesy did not involve any dragons being born. It was I believe that the PtwP would be born of Aerys II and Rhaela's line. In any case the Targaryens' dreams seems to me like a plot device to get them to do really stupid things. In hindsight Rhaegar probably kidnapped Lyanna because he saw it in a dream.

Yes I know this, thank you. Key words being "as far as we know." That is the point of this post, to try to pose a hypothesis as to how and why Summerhall occurred, the theory being that the Ghost of High Heart told Aegon V that she saw a dragon hatching out of it, which led to them burning it the hell down when in fact Rhaegar, born the same day, was the "dragon" the Ghost saw. Obviously we don't know this for sure. That's why it's only a theory.

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This is definetly gonna turn out to be true.I wonder though,what was the sorcery and treason of the tragedy of summerhall?

The sorcery, I think, was the attempt itself — they probably tried to use some kind of half-assed magic to hatch the egg(s). The treason ... that I don't know, it's an interesting word to use. Can't wait to find out ... ;)

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The sorcery, I think, was the attempt itself — they probably tried to use some kind of half-assed magic to hatch the egg(s). The treason .

.. that I don't know, it's an interesting word to use. Can't wait to find out ... ;)

Another(sigh) Blackfyre Rebellion attempt? :rolleyes:

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Awesome! I haven't read any of the Dunk and Egg stories yet and this has helped to clarify a lor of things, I think you're right about the use of "dragons" in prophecies to refer to Targs and Rhaegar being born when Summerhall burned makes perfect sense for the dragon hatched out of Summerhall. Now, are the dragons we know have to be "awaken from stone" according to the AA prophecy also Targs or real dragons? If your theory is right, and as I said makes perfect sense to me, I might not be that wrong in my thinking that Jon (if R+L=J) is the ice dragon.

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Awesome! I haven't read any of the Dunk and Egg stories yet and this has helped to clarify a lor of things, I think you're right about the use of "dragons" in prophecies to refer to Targs and Rhaegar being born when Summerhall burned makes perfect sense for the dragon hatched out of Summerhall. Now, are the dragons we know have to be "awaken from stone" according to the AA prophecy also Targs or real dragons? If your theory is right, and as I said makes perfect sense to me, I might not be that wrong in my thinking that Jon (if R+L=J) is the ice dragon.

I'm very keen on the idea that "waking stone dragons" refers to embracing or discovering a dormant (stone) Targaryen identity. To be fair, this could refer to Jon and/or Dany — one or both of them embracing their, uh, inner dragon. Literalists point to Dany hatching the eggs as "waking stone dragons." This makes sense literally, but like I've said, that's not how these dragon-visions unfold. In any case, I think there's something to be said for the idea that Illyrio's "petrified eggs from Asshai" are really from the Targaryen house stash (i.e. the idea that Rhaegal hatched from Aegon V's green egg), in which case, they're probably not as old as has been advertised and may not be stone/petrified at all.

To my mind, the more of these "dragons as Targs" visions that stack up, the likelier it is that the dragon prophecies within the main narrative are supposed to be read the same way. We already have two of them, I made a case for a third, and there are a lot of D&E novellas left to go. :)

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Well it seems that they would bneed to have some incentive to try to hatch the dragon eggs. Aegon though sounds like the kind of person who would know better. Maybe that was the treason? That the rest went ahead despite him forbidding it?

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Well it seems that they would bneed to have some incentive to try to hatch the dragon eggs. Aegon though sounds like the kind of person who would know better. Maybe that was the treason? That the rest went ahead despite him forbidding it?

Could very well be.

I don't think they needed any other incentive to try to hatch a dragon other than ... the possibility of being able to hatch a dragon. They'd been trying to do it for ages, hadn't they, ever since the last one died. I think that in and of itself was "reason" enough. If you were obsessed with trying to produce another living dragon and some woman — whose visions had been right before — told you that she saw one hatching out of one of your castles, wouldn't you give it the old college try?

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Nice thread! Thank you Apple Martini for starting this discussion. Summerhall may be one of the keys to understand the prophecies and why Rhaegar acted as he did ... and what were the consequences of this action. I suspect that the echec at Summerhall was an experiment gone wrong.

It may have contributed to the 'madness' that Aerys started to show, as was maybe what happened to him in Duskendale.

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