What was really behind Robert's rebellion?

[Lady Octarina]

When I read AGoT, I already assumed that there had to be more behind Robert's rebellion than simply Rhaegar running away with his bride. I know I had no elements to believe that, but the simple comparison with the Trojan War was enough for me to doubt that explanation. When we're kids, they tell us that the TW happened because Paris kidnapped Helen from Menelaus, etc. Then we grow up and we learn that "Greece" had commercial and political interests in Troy, among others. So, this is basically what I have believed since then: Lyanna's "kidnapping" (in the official version) - or the deaths of Rickard Stark, Brandon and the others on Aerys's hand? I really don't remember after which event the rebellion began...) - might have been the Franz Ferdinand assassination to Westeros. But what was really behind it?

I mean, if we compare with the rest of the rebellion's in this series (Robb's, Stannis's, Greyjoy's, etc.), and what little information we have of the event, it's clear they had the support from many important regions, their armies weren't small, otherwise they would have been defeated just as easily as the others. And most of those lords had no interest in who had Lyanna or those who died in Aerys's hand that night. I suppose many of those lords were not happy with what Mad Aerys was doing to the kingdom, but if they wanted to replace him, the obvious choice would have been Rhaegar, who was loved throughout the kingdom (or so the books lead us to believe), not Robert, who didn't even had such a direct connection with that line.

Lady Dustin hints something about Rickard Stark's "southern ambitions", and I've read a theory in this forum about how much the maesters could be influencing (or trying to) in westerosi politics, so... My guess is Lord Stark already had putting Robert onn the throne in mind when he married Lyanna to him, and he might have been conspiring with other lords for at least a few years before this whole rebellion began. The Citadel might have been involved, but I'm not sure where to go from here with this idea. What's your guess?

[Jem]

Agreed.

I think that the Citadel had been working for 300 years to get rid of the Targaryen's. They were sucessful in getting rid of the dragons, but the human Targs were harder to budge.

I would guess that the Maester's believed that they needed a majority of the Great Houses behind them for support. I should say, I don't think all Maesters were involved, just a small dedicated group that kept itself active over the centuries. Rickard Stark's Maester, Warlys, was the bastard son of a Hightower girl and an archmaester. Warlys's father was part of this small group that was dedicated to bringing down the Targs and Warlys 'whispered' his father's instructions into the ear of Lord Stark. Lord Stark, I believe had motives of his own, his 'southron ambitions' and was only too keen to hook up with the Maesters.

I have also suggested that the Baratheon Maester, Cressen, may have been involved: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/57647-southron-ambitions-who-is-maester-warlyss-father/ but that is just speculation (as is most of it really!). In any case, I beleive that the Maesters were waiting for the opportunity that arrived in the wake of the War of the Ninepenny Kings. During this war Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully became good friends. I think that the Maesters used this friendship between three of the Great Houses to start bringing together a faction that could bring down the Targs.

As luck would have it, Steffon Baratheon died when his heir Robert was only young. I believe that the older lords Stark, Arryn and Tully saw this chance to use Robert who, ironically, had a bit of Targ blood in him. Robert was sent to be fostered at the Eyrie with Ned Stark for company. Cat Tully and Brandon Stark were betrothed, as were Lyanna Stark and Robert. All very cosy.

Aerys was paranoid that people were out to steal his throne, but I think that Rhaegar actually thought so too. Only Rhaegar wasn't being paranoid, it was the Stark-Tully-Arryn faction that were out to get him. Rhaegar had many pressing issues at this time - he was obsessed with a prophecy and needed a third child for that, his dad was crazy, and these lords were secretly plotting against him. So in a desperate bid to kill at least two of those three problems with the one stone, he takes Lyanna to bear his third child and also to break the Stark-Baratheon union.

Now that throws the Stark-Arryn-Tully plans into chaos. Brandon Stark goes completely ballistic and, as we know, gets himself and his father killed. I think that it was always the plan to put Robert on the throne (with Lyanna as his bride), but when Lyanna was taken, the Stark-Arryn-Tullys had to come up with a Plan B. Aerys helped a them a lot by demanding the heads of Robert and Ned. So Jon Arryn used that excuse to start the Rebellion, with young Robert as the figurehead. Robert wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed but I think if it was patiently explained to him that the girl he was supposed to marry had been taken and that now he gets to swing his warhammer around in a bit of a war to get her back and then after all that he gets to wear a shiny crown and be called a King, well Robert would like that just fine. Oh and don't worry about all the hard bits about being a king, nice old Jon Arryn will give you a hand.

Well, I've rambled on long enough but essentially I agree that Robert's Rebellion was a lot more complicated than just a man running away with another man's gal.

[TrueMetis]

Killing a high lord and his heir, then attempting to kill two other high lords isn't enough grounds for rebellion?

[corbon]

Well, there was a choice. Robert and Ned could have just agreed to be executed for no reason. They didn't have to rebel (or rather, Jon Arryn didn't have to choose to not give them up).

In case you didn't notice, /sarcasm.

But that said, there are hints of possible deeper tensions underlying the political reality pre-rebellion.

[Fire Eater]

I'm just going to be lazy and quote one of my previous posts.

If you look at the history of the Great Houses, they mostly married among their own bannermen. Yet just before Robert's Rebellion, the Lords Paramount were, for the first time, marrying their children outside their domains. Rickard Stark, convinced by Maester Walys, decided to break marry his eldest son and heir to the daughter of Lord Hoster Tully, while Tully had betrothed his other daughter, Lysa, to Jaime, the eldest son and heir of Tywin Lannister. Both Hoster Tully and Tywin Lannister were probably influenced by their own maesters as well. Maester Walys probably also convinced Rickard to foster his second son, Ned, with Jon Arryn alongside the young Lord Of Storm's End. In effect five out eight of the Great Houses are bound by marriage and friendship. This alliance proved to be adequate to overthrow the Targaryens.

The Citadel probably concocted a plan after the Targaryens conquered Westeros. The first phase was to kill off the dragons, in both an attempt to rid off magic, and dragons being the chief advantage House Targaryen had against their opponents. Without the dragons, the Targaryens had to rely on the loyalty of their lords for their military strength. Then came the second phase, which was to get rid of the Targaryens themselves, and that's where the allaince between the great houses came in. If Lyanna ever wrote a letter to send to her family about what she had done, the maester at Winterfell was Walys, he could have confiscated or destroyed the letter in hopes it would create conflict between Houses Stark and Targaryen, which would involve the other Houses that House Stark was allied to.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

As Jem said, there are theories that the Targs had had targets on their back for a while, and that this had something to do with the Citadel and Rickard Stark's "southron" ambitions. After the dragons died out, the Targs really only maintained power for as long as the major houses continued to back them. Four big houses against them while two stood with them and two sat on their hands would have been enough to take them out, seeing as they did. Lyanna's kidnapping may have expedited or kicked off things, but I definitely agree that something had been on the agenda for some time.

[jmastar]

Robert at a youth was extremly charismatic, he was still a drunken whore monger but most everyone liked him..... As stated he doesnt have direct bloodline, but he does have some Targ blood then ..... Also the way the starks rolled into the throne room demanded their deaths regardless of the situation. Im assuming the Userpers were just sick of hoping the Targs kings would still be sane enough to rule properly so it was time to eradicate them... And lastly the Targs were imbreading silver haired hillbillys that needed to be wiped out..

[CloudFlare]

So Jon Arryn used that excuse to start the Rebellion, with young Robert as the figurehead. Robert wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed but I think if it was patiently explained to him that the girl he was supposed to marry had been taken and that now he gets to swing his warhammer around in a bit of a war to get her back and then after all that he gets to wear a shiny crown and be called a King, well Robert would like that just fine. Oh and don't worry about all the hard bits about being a king, nice old Jon Arryn will give you a hand.

Well, I've rambled on long enough but essentially I agree that Robert's Rebellion was a lot more complicated than just a man running away with another man's gal.

I think your theory is excellent overall, but neither Ned or Robert hint that Jon or any maesters were prodding them to rebel. Robert pretty much went to war as soon as he heard about Lyanna being kidnapped(IIRC). If anything, Robert's impetuousness was probably a danger to the plot.

Edit: Hmm, thinking it over though, Ned might have been in the dark about the rebellion. His father and brother might have kept the number of plotters to a minimum for security purposes, or to give Ned plausible deniability.

I don't know if Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna would break the Stark-Baratheon alliance. If anything, it drug both those houses in, plus the Arryns and probably the Tullies.

[jmastar]

I think your theory is excellent overall, but neither Ned or Robert hint that Jon or any maesters were prodding them to rebel. Robert pretty much went to war as soon as he heard about Lyanna being kidnapped(IIRC). If anything, Robert's impetuousness was probably a danger to the plot.

Edit: Hmm, thinking it over though, Ned might have been in the dark about the rebellion. His father and brother might have kept the number of plotters to a minimum for security purposes, or to give Ned plausible deniability.

I don't know if Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna would break the Stark-Baratheon alliance. If anything, it drug both those houses in, plus the Arryns and probably the Tullies.

People still think Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna legit other then she ran away to him?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think your theory is excellent overall, but neither Ned or Robert hint that Jon or any maesters were prodding them to rebel. Robert pretty much went to war as soon as he heard about Lyanna being kidnapped(IIRC). If anything, Robert's impetuousness was probably a danger to the plot.

Except that it wasn't Robert who ran off to King's Landing when Rhaegar "kidnapped" Lyanna. It was Brandon, and then Rickard went to "answer for him." The actual rebellion itself didn't kick off until those two were murdered and Aerys demanded that Arryn turn over Ned and Robert. If anyone was impetuous, it was Brandon.

People still think Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna legit other then she ran away to him?

Robert seems to think so and it's the official party line but I'm not sure how many people actually believe it at this point.

[CloudFlare]

People still think Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna legit other then she ran away to him?

Err, forgot about that. I've got a nasty mix of Tylenol PM and caffeinated coffee going right now. ;)

Have we been looking at the the "Rhaegar-Kidnap-Lyanna" theory through Robert's eyes when we should have been looking at it through the plotters'? Maybe Jon Arryn and some of the others fed the kidnapping story to Brandon/Robert/Ned/Rickard(?!) to get them to rebel?

Other thoughts:

Was Ned distant from Jon Arryn after the rebellion? I don't recall him visiting KL or the Eyrie after the rebellion.

Would Tywin have been part of the plot? He seemed to want to bind the dragon and the lion together with a Cersei/Rhaegar marriage. Aerys f'd up on that one.

[CloudFlare]

Robert seems to think so and it's the official party line but I'm not sure how many people actually believe it at this point.

It's the WMD of Westeros. :)

[jmastar]

Err, forgot about that. I've got a nasty mix of Tylenol PM and caffeinated coffee going right now. ;)

Have we been looking at the the "Rhaegar-Kidnap-Lyanna" theory through Robert's eyes when we should have been looking at it through the plotters'? Maybe Jon Arryn and some of the others fed the kidnapping story to Brandon/Robert/Ned/Rickard(?!) to get them to rebel?

Other thoughts:

Was Ned distant from Jon Arryn after the rebellion? I don't recall him visiting KL or the Eyrie after the rebellion.

Would Tywin have been part of the plot? He seemed to want to bind the dragon and the lion together with a Cersei/Rhaegar marriage. Aerys f'd up on that one.

It could have just been Robert being an Big headed drunken idiot thinking that she was taken by him... It could have been as you said, arryns... But I dont think it was the lannisters.. Tywin sat on the sidelines until the end, when he slipped pycell the word to open the gates. He was to insulted by the targs to OK hiding their kids, marraige slight likely made him redic sour because the same kids that were offered to his family were given to the targs...

[chrisdaw]

I don't think a faction strong enough to defeat the Targs and take the throne came about by chance, but I don't think it was by design or even with the knowledge of the high lords, Arryn, Stark or Tully. I think it far more likely the citadel would have simply fostered friendship between the houses and anti-sentiment against the Targs, revealing their true intentions for Southron ambitions would have been both unnecessary and extremely risky. If it comes to be that the citadel was responsible it'd make much sense for information of the R+L match to have been distorted by the citadel given Lady Dustin's Theon conversation, R+L would have been their opportunity to bring things to a head.

[Eejit]

I think the Mad King had made himself enemies more than Robert & Co. had made allies for themselves. No conspiracy needed.

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

Tywin was pushing to have Cersei married to Rhaegar, this is outside the marry your bannerman norm as well. Hearing this would it be beyond Riverlands and Storm End trying to secure their own power marriages to protect themselves from this potential alliance. I mean they would be the two most worried lands if this deal went through. The North is an obvious power to chose to marry with well if you wanted to trump the crown as its self contained, as big as the the others combined, never defeated in battle and a power in its own right.

With a stonger monarch they would never have contemplated something so blatent but Aerys was mad and had made enough enemies for the proposals to make sense.

I think Jon Aryn's marriage to Lysa happened near Ned's marriage to Cat which would indicate it happened during rebellion when sides were chosen and alliances cemented.

In the end the Lannister match didn't happen but the idea was already floated and too good to reject. I would like to know the timeline between Tywin's proposal of Cersei and the proposal of the Barath-Tully-Stark marriages.

The "Citidel Conspiracy" is a bit much for me and has many flaws.

[Lady Octarina]

I think Jon Aryn's marriage to Lysa happened near Ned's marriage to Cat which would indicate it happened during rebellion when sides were chosen and alliances cemented.

In the end the Lannister match didn't happen but the idea was already floated and too good to reject. I would like to know the timeline between Tywin's proposal of Cersei and the proposal of the Barath-Tully-Stark marriages.

Lysa and Catelyn married the same day, the same ceremony, but in Lysa's case it seems to have had a lot to do, besides the need to cement alliances, to her recent abortion.

Tywin's proposal of Cersei, if you mean that he wanted her to marry Rhaegar... She said it happened when she was 15, isn't it right? Before he married Elia, which would be six or seven years before Harrenhall and everything that followed.

Here's another thing: do we know when Walys died and was replaced by the maester we met in AGoT? And if there truly was some kind of conspiracy or older plans to substitute the Targs, from whom would we get the information? Sam's chapters at the Citadel? Or from Stannis, who was already old enough to understand what was happening - better than Robert, I would bet?

[tze]

And if there truly was some kind of conspiracy or older plans to substitute the Targs, from whom would we get the information? Sam's chapters at the Citadel? Or from Stannis, who was already old enough to understand what was happening - better than Robert, I would bet?

From the now-senile Grand Master Walgrave, with whom Sam is going to be spending time at the Citadel. Another thread here http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/57647-southron-ambitions-who-is-maester-warlyss-father/ discusses how Walgrave is probably the father of Walys that's mentioned by Lady Dustin. We know Walgrave sometimes mistook Pate for Cressen, who would have been the maester at Storm's End at and during the Rebellion. So we have a connection between Walgrave and Cressen, a probable connection between Walgrave and Walys, and Sam's in a position to hear Walgrave's ramblings and get some info there.

[Silent_Hero]

Marrying your children outside your domain to other Great Houses isn't shocking it's that Lord Rickard Married his son to Cately then Sent Ned to The Vale and Married off His daughter to Robert quite frankly you now have 3 Great Houses and their Bannerman tied in to each other and planning something really big. How everything seemed to happen within a very short time seems to cement the feeling something big is under works. It's so obvious a blind man can see it.

And the rebellion actually started when The Mad King demanded Robert and Neds head upon a spike and Jon Arryns refusal that the war started

[Humphrey Plantagenet]

Even if the Citadel did have an anti Targ agenda, as well as an anti dragon/magic one, I don’t ever see them as advocates of war for any purpose. The consequences of war are too dire. The style of the Citadel is surely more “the death of one innocent is ok if it saves the lives of thousands by avoiding war”. If they did want to remove the Royal Line then they’d surely use some kind of cloak and dagger tactics. Not cry havoc. Or rather manipulate somebody else in to doing it.

I can see them assisting the other great houses in forming stronger bonds. Successful medieval/feudal states relied on controlling and co-operating with the monarchy. English medieval history in particular is full of the great and good keeping a check on Royal power, without trying to diminish or replace it.

But at some point a King would get out of hand or a power broker would get delusions of grandeur and the delicate balance would be broken. Thousands would die, some of the great houses would be ended and sometimes the Royal line would change. But it was always a complete disaster for the State.

The Citadel knows this. Great Lords like Hoster Tully & Jon Arynn knew this. The Starks haven’t held sway for thousands of years by risking everything on war unnecessarily. Southron ambitions would mean marriages and new lands.

Young men are very different and sometimes events force the hand of prudent men. But years of conspiracy to force a war which would have no certain outcome, but would certainly cause devastation all across the land? Not likely in my book.