Aurane Waters

[Cerys]

I think he is opportunist. But I would like to hear why people think he is Tyrell loyalist.

[Humphrey Plantagenet]

I, as always in the world created by GRRM, stand to be proven wrong…but I think Aurane Waters may be that rarest of things. A character with only one purpose. To be emblematic of Cersei’s bloody awful judgement and to strip her of any naval power.

He’ll probably turn out to be Azor Ahai reborn now I’ve said that.

[Always_En_Garde]

I *hope* he was just a dick who made an idiot out of Cersei and ran off with a free fleet. Not everything has to have far-reaching repercussions. - even in these books.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

My original take on this was that he just took the ships and became a sell-sail or a pirate. However, there is much to be said for the fact that these are very big, very recognizable ships that would be hard to re-sell and not too much use for pirating. The size of the ships requires a very large crew to operate effectively, to boot. So I'm know leaning towards the idea that the Bastard of Driftmark is in bed with someone. Who it is, I'm not sure but it's clearly not the Lannisters and is almost surely not the Tyrells, any Riverlanders nor any Northern bannermen. That leaves Stannis, Aegon, Dany, LF or Varys/Illyrio as the most likely candidates.

[Ski the Swift]

My original take on this was that he just took the ships and became a sell-sail or a pirate. However, there is much to be said for the fact that these are very big, very recognizable ships that would be hard to re-sell and not too much use for pirating. The size of the ships requires a very large crew to operate effectively, to boot. So I'm know leaning towards the idea that the Bastard of Driftmark is in bed with someone. Who it is, I'm not sure but it's clearly not the Lannisters and is almost surely not the Tyrells, any Riverlanders nor any Northern bannermen. That leaves Stannis, Aegon, Dany, LF or Varys/Illyrio as the most likely candidates.

I believe that he has to be supporting someone (other then the Lannisters of course), it isn't like he was a complete nobody prior to his elevation to the Small Council. Someone with a status high enough to be granted that position doesn't just suddenly turn rogue and leaving all of his holdings and family to ruin. Everyone is going to know straight away who it is if he turned pirate and he'd have half the world looking for him. No I think he definitely has sided with someone, most likely the Tyrells. I like the whole Dragonstone siege being faked and Loras on his death bed plot.

[Cerys]

I believe that he has to be supporting someone (other then the Lannisters of course), it isn't like he was a complete nobody prior to his elevation to the Small Council. Someone with a status high enough to be granted that position doesn't just suddenly turn rogue and leaving all of his holdings and family to ruin. Everyone is going to know straight away who it is if he turned pirate and he'd have half the world looking for him. No I think he definitely has sided with someone, most likely the Tyrells. I like the whole Dragonstone siege being faked and Loras on his death bed plot.

But he was a complete nobody. Only reason why he was elevated into Small Council is because Cersei though he looked like Rhaegar.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Best bet is that he working with/for Varys. Aegon is going to need sea power to take Kings Landing once he has gathered enough troops. Waters is simply waiting for the right time to reemerge.

[jarl the climber]

He is somewhat egnimatic. The connection his house has with the Targs plays into the idea of him being alllied with Varys. He supported Cersei when she did not want to release the Redwyne fleet. Varys also probaly knew of the attempts to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and might have realized that his resemblance to Rhaegar might enable him to influence Cersei. However it was mentioned that varys had been unable to infiltrate Dragonstone to spy on Stannis but you could argue that Varys was keeping this card up his sleeve.

On a practical level no matter who he serves, the men who captian his ships and serve as his sailors are probaly more interested in gold than politics. He may have lied about their orders but that carries risks. I do not beleive that it was possible for the battle on Dragonstone to be faked. It is possible that someone else fought in Ser Loras's armor posing as him but I don't think Ser Loras would have gone along with this willingly, it seems out of character.

It is mentioned that he talked to sailors down at the docks, he mentioned several rumors about dragons and the Golden Company that have some importance. He planted the idea that Stannis had hired the Golden Company perhaps. it is unclear why he brought up the rumors of dragons. He remains silent when Davos's fate is discussed, he makes a lame jest about Stannis replacing him with a turnip knight.

[Cerys]

He is somewhat egnimatic. The connection his house has with the Targs plays into the idea of him being alllied with Varys. He supported Cersei when she did not want to release the Redwyne fleet. Varys also probaly knew of the attempts to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and might have realized that his resemblance to Rhaegar might enable him to influence Cersei. However it was mentioned that varys had been unable to infiltrate Dragonstone to spy on Stannis but you could argue that Varys was keeping this card up his sleeve.

Varys has no prophecy abillity. He couldn't know what would Cersei think.

[hombay]

My gut feeling tells me that Waters will, somehow, work together with Salladhor Saan.

[Black Walder]

On a practical level no matter who he serves, the men who captian his ships and serve as his sailors are probaly more interested in gold than politics. He may have lied about their orders but that carries risks.

It's better than that - Cersei let Waters pick his own captains. She argues about it with Pycelle in AFFC:

*Grand Maester Pycelle: "Look, Cersei, you know I'm bought and paid for and usually know when to keep my mouth shut, but this Waters cat is going to jack your boats if you give him too much leeway."

Regent Cersei Lannister: "LOL! STFU, noob!"

*(Not exact quotations)

[Patchface12]

I thought maybe he would help with the attacks against Euron to get in good with the Tyrells since Cersei pissed them off when he last left. Maybe he hopes to get lands titles (and possibly legitimization) for his actions.

Tho someone said he didn't have that many ships. But if he was a pirate first, maybe he could build a more formidable fleet.

[Septon Meribald]

He has a fleet of about a half a dozen large warships iirc. It could not rival the Iron Fleet or the Redwyne's fleet probably, but it would be a significant contribution to either. Most "navies" opporating around Westeros are not composed of specific warships, but cobbled together by arming merchant vessels with a small number of warships at their heart. The Royal Fleet would be extremely powerful compared to these.

[freerider]

There is an interesting background for the bastard of Driftmark in the perspective of a Blackfyre resurgence. The Velaryons are of Valyrian origin and have once married one of their daughters to a Targaryen King. This is how Daemon Blackfyre descended from the Velaryons on his mother's side, (but the Targaryens from the main line didn't, as far as I know). However Aurane is only a Velaryon bastard, which makes me wonder whether a bastard in search of legitimacy would support a Blackfyre pretender.

This is why I suspect Aurane would have made a choice recruit for Varys to gain to the Blackfyre cause (assuming Aegon is indeed a Blackfyre), after Aurane swore fealty to Joffrey after the BoB.

infact three veleryons have been married to targs in the main line

[PrinceHenryris]

He has a fleet of about a half a dozen large warships iirc. It could not rival the Iron Fleet or the Redwyne's fleet probably, but it would be a significant contribution to either. Most "navies" opporating around Westeros are not composed of specific warships, but cobbled together by arming merchant vessels with a small number or warships at their heart. The Royal Fleet would be extremely powerful compared to these.

I agree completely. Acting independently, Aurane's "Royal Fleet" is no match for what the Ironborn, Redwynes, or even White Harbor can put to sea. What could the eight or so ships Aurane has hope to accomplish?

I feel that he's either gone pirate or is dancing to the strings of Varys or LF.

[Cold-King]

I imagine a showdown between him and Victarion's Iron Fleet off the shores of Mereen. Perhaps after Victarion has defeated the Volantene navy.

I hope this doesnt happen, on the other hand i wouldnt mind if he joined forces with victarion to take on the volantene fleet! I would on the other hand like them to ferry Dany and the unsullied/khalasar etc as Lord snowflakes said!

[Ser Endrew Tarth]

I was also under the impression that he was pirating in the stepstones. There were rumors circulating of a new group taking up residence there right? IIRC there are histories of "pirate princes" using the stepstones as a launching point to raid and plunder. With no solid ties to other factions and, as mentioned above, an all but irrellevent fleet (so small compared to other factions) this just seems right to me. Though if he excells in this capacity (ie taking the boats he attacks Victarion style) then he may become formidable and have a part to play in the narrative.

[Lady Winter Rose]

Endrew, as someone pointed, these ships are dromodons... large, easy spottable, easy reconginsed... it would be very slow and hard plungering, and once its done, every port would close it gates.

I don't know where he would go, but I think he could be part of Aegon's alliance. I know there's no evidence, but all other solutions are too complicated.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Endrew, as someone pointed, these ships are dromodons... large, easy spottable, easy reconginsed... it would be very slow and hard plungering, and once its done, every port would close it gates.

I don't know where he would go, but I think he could be part of Aegon's alliance. I know there's no evidence, but all other solutions are too complicated.

I Initially thought aurane is going to dany to pose as her nephew but during a reread I realised he too smart for that move. i think he's stuck with his ragtag navy in Skagos

[Ser Endrew Tarth]

Endrew, as someone pointed, these ships are dromodons... large, easy spottable, easy reconginsed... it would be very slow and hard plungering, and once its done, every port would close it gates.

I don't know where he would go, but I think he could be part of Aegon's alliance. I know there's no evidence, but all other solutions are too complicated.

Not the solution that he's a pirate on the stepstones. I mean come on, the boats were just built, how recognizable could they be? And what does a pirate/privateer care what ports he can put into when he's already branded a traitor of the crown?