Best Aegon is a Blackfyre insane-evidence EVER

[Bluefyre]

When rereading some time ago I picked up on the black dragon tossed into the water-thing as well. Hadn't made the connection with YG/Aegon VI though, but it's nice symbolism. And as Ran noted: in the original single book the chapter on YG and on the tossed BD may have been quite close to each other.

(I tried to reread chapters from AffC and ADWD alternatingly in the correct order- an interesting exercise...)

I definitely do believe he's a Blackfyre and not a Targ - I posted this some days ago in another thread on V+I's plotting.

Other indications for this I think are:

• YG/Aegon is the spitting image, both in appearance and in character, of the Blackfyre pretender in the last Dunk&Egg story.
  
• The Gold Company always was the Blackfyre private army and is supposed to break its contract and invade Westeros when there is a Blackfyre claimant for the Iron Throne around - it is in fact their founding and final purpose. So why would they cross to Westeros now, if YG were a Targ (Blackfyres' old enemy)? The other thing about this is that Jon Connington and several others were not let in on this particular detail. Harry Strickland problably was.
  

And of course Varys' and Illyrio's treatment of and plotting regarding Viserys and Daenerys now make much more sense...

[dtones520]

When rereading some time ago I picked up on the black dragon tossed into the water-thing as well. Hadn't made the connection with YG/Aegon VI though, but it's nice symbolism. And as Ran noted: in the original single book the chapter on YG and on the tossed BD may have been quite close to each other.

(I tried to reread chapters from AffC and ADWD alternatingly in the correct order- an interesting exercise...)

I definitely do believe he's a Blackfyre and not a Targ - I posted this some days ago in another thread on V+I's plotting.

Other indications for this I think are:

• YG/Aegon is the spitting image, both in appearance and in character, of the Blackfyre pretender in the last Dunk&Egg story.
  
• The Gold Company always was the Blackfyre private army and is supposed to break its contract and invade Westeros when there is a Blackfyre claimant for the Iron Throne around - it is in fact their founding and final purpose. So why would they cross to Westeros now, if YG were a Targ (Blackfyres' old enemy)? The other thing about this is that Jon Connington and several others were not let in on this particular detail. Harry Strickland problably was.
  

And of course Varys' and Illyrio's treatment of and plotting regarding Viserys and Daenerys now make much more sense...

See what I don't understand, is why would Illyrio send Barristan to Dany if he was scheming against her. Why would he not sell Selmy on the fact that Aegon, his true rightful king, was still alive. Having a great knight of the Kingsguard along with Connington would only help Aegon in his taking of the throne. I think that Illyrio wanted to eliminate Viserys because he is crazy and wouldn't let someone like Aegon take his birth right. He then sent Selmy to Dany to give her a great knight for her protection. Then her and Aegon we, produce a n heir with Targ and Blackfyre blood. But I don't think he was scheming against Dany

[Lummel]

Barristan is one of the best placed people - possibly the best placed person, to give a positive identification of Aegon and I think that's precisely why he has been kept away from the boy because he's also the person whose suspicions could ruin Aegon's chances.

And there is the little matter that he was the person who slew Maelys the Monstrous.

[Bluefyre]

Barristan is one of the best placed people - possibly the best placed person, to give a positive identification of Aegon and I think that's precisely why he has been kept away from the boy because he's also the person whose suspicions could ruin Aegon's chances.

And there is the little matter that he was the person who slew Maelys the Monstrous.

This!

Plus he needed Selmy with Dany, just as he needs Tyrion with Dany now, to talk some sense into her. Dany has not shown a lot of affinity for the plans Varys and Illyrio cooked up for her.

He has not been plotting against Dany, but mainly in favor of Aegon. Aegon needs the Dragons, and the Dothraki, and Varys and Illyrio need Dany to hook up with Aegon and reunite the Targaryen and Blackfyre lines, for the good of the realm.

[ghost the direwolf]

hopefully this will backfire .

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This!

Plus he needed Selmy with Dany, just as he needs Tyrion with Dany now, to talk some sense into her. Dany has not shown a lot of affinity for the plans Varys and Illyrio cooked up for her.

He has not been plotting against Dany, but mainly in favor of Aegon. Aegon needs the Dragons, and the Dothraki, and Varys and Illyrio need Dany to hook up with Aegon and reunite the Targaryen and Blackfyre lines, for the good of the realm.

I mostly agree, but I think Dany is meant to be a stooge, to affirm "Aegon's" legitimacy. There's no question that Dany is who she claims to be and if she's convinced that "Aegon" is Aegon, others will be too. The wildcard is, what happens if "Aegon" gets to Westeros long before Dany — which has happened — and convinces enough people that he's real without Dany? He wouldn't really even need her anymore.

[the average Other]

hopefully this will backfire .

No, it will... blackfyre!

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

No, it will... blackfyre!

I thought it said Blackfyre at first. I need a drink.

[Bluefyre]

I mostly agree, but I think Dany is meant to be a stooge, to affirm "Aegon's" legitimacy. There's no question that Dany is who she claims to be and if she's convinced that "Aegon" is Aegon, others will be too. The wildcard is, what happens if "Aegon" gets to Westeros long before Dany — which has happened — and convinces enough people that he's real without Dany? He wouldn't really even need her anymore.

I really think Dany is meant to be more than just a stooge, although that may be part of it too.

But 3 dragons (which probably was a long shot but paid off great) and a khalasar of screamers (which seemed to be a sure thing but got screwed up on the way), would both have been a nifty extra for Aegon as well, wouldn't they? And the original plan for Dany and Aegon to hook up, both army-wise and in other ways, before they got to Westeros was buggered as well, what with Aegon letting Tyrion's attempts to piss off Griff get under his own skin, and Dany stalling in Meereen...

Which seems to be a repeating GRRM theme: the more intricate the plotting, the more screwed up things get due to the 'personal factor'.

[Bluefyre]

I thought it said Blackfyre at first. I need a drink.

Yeah, same here.

[TheHedgeWizard]

• YG/Aegon is the spitting image, both in appearance and in character, of the Blackfyre pretender in the last Dunk&Egg story.
  
• The Gold Company always was the Blackfyre private army and is supposed to break its contract and invade Westeros when there is a Blackfyre claimant for the Iron Throne around - it is in fact their founding and final purpose. So why would they cross to Westeros now, if YG were a Targ (Blackfyres' old enemy)? The other thing about this is that Jon Connington and several others were not let in on this particular detail. Harry Strickland problably was.
  

The Golden Company has alot of reasons to invade westeros. many people in the golden company are exiled from westeros and want to go home. many in the Golden Company want lands, titles, wealth and so on. i dont think they care if it is blackfyre or targ.

[Freygatarian]

I'm rereading Tyrion I and I think I found some more evidence. Tyrion just got to Illyrio's mansion, he looks out the window and sees this in the garden:

"A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo's blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble..."

That sounds a lot like a statue of Aegon! Now either Illyrio has a weird man-crush on Lil Egg or else he's honoring his son with a statue in his likeness.

EDIT: typos

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I really think Dany is meant to be more than just a stooge, although that may be part of it too.

But 3 dragons (which probably was a long shot but paid off great) and a khalasar of screamers (which seemed to be a sure thing but got screwed up on the way), would both have been a nifty extra for Aegon as well, wouldn't they? And the original plan for Dany and Aegon to hook up, both army-wise and in other ways, before they got to Westeros was buggered as well, what with Aegon letting Tyrion's attempts to piss off Griff get under his own skin, and Dany stalling in Meereen...

Which seems to be a repeating GRRM theme: the more intricate the plotting, the more screwed up things get due to the 'personal factor'.

I'd agree with this, except that Illyrio told Tyrion that he actually expected Dany to die in the Dothraki Sea, and hatching the dragon eggs was a fluke. I think the plan adapted over time, but every time it did, Aegon was always the main focus, not Dany.

1. Send Dany and Viserys with the Dothraki to get rid of them. Dany survives and could get her husband to invade Westeros. Proceed to ...

2. Let the Dothraki and Robert decimate each other, leaving both sides weakened. Aegon swoops in and saves the day. Drogo dies before this happens and Dany goes to Slaver's Bay. Proceed to ...

3. Send Aegon to Slaver's Bay to try to win Dany and her dragons to his side. This is still about Aegon being king, even though he wants to win Dany's support and the dragons, plus her sheen of legitimacy. But Aegon says no, I want to go to Westeros. Proceed to ...

4. Aegon takes Storm's End, declares himself and, apparently, does his best to snap up the support of the powerful bannermen. If he's successful, he doesn't even need Dany anymore, and if people believe he's real, his claim trumps hers anyway.

So while the plan may have shifted based on realities, it was always about Aegon, not Dany.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

"A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo's blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble..."

That sounds a lot like a statue of Aegon! Now either Illyrio has a weird man-crush on Lil Egg or else he's honoring his son with a statue in his likeness.

It's a good catch, but if I remember correctly, that statue actually depicts Illyrio; it was made when he was 16. Which implies that Illyrio was blond in his youth (now his hair is dyed yellow), which would of course still fit in with him being Aegon's father. Aegon's hair however used to be dyed blue, and his real hair color would probably have been too strikingly silver to be merely described as blond by Tyrion.

[Freygatarian]

Yeah I saw that later in the chapter. Though he said he was poor in his youth, makes me wonder how he could have a marble statue made of him.

[Lord Damian]

Very clever. GRRM and clues like this make the re-read worth while, over and over again.

[Lord Damian]

Very clever. GRRM and clues like this make the re-read worth while, over and over again.

[Lord Damian]

I wonder if the Prince who was possibly ousted by Illyrio might know more about his past that might help Ser Barristan figure out who Aegon really is when he learns of him.

[Bluefyre]

I'd agree with this, except that Illyrio told Tyrion that he actually expected Dany to die in the Dothraki Sea, and hatching the dragon eggs was a fluke. I think the plan adapted over time, but every time it did, Aegon was always the main focus, not Dany.

1. Send Dany and Viserys with the Dothraki to get rid of them. Dany survives and could get her husband to invade Westeros. Proceed to ...

2. Let the Dothraki and Robert decimate each other, leaving both sides weakened. Aegon swoops in and saves the day. Drogo dies before this happens and Dany goes to Slaver's Bay. Proceed to ...

3. Send Aegon to Slaver's Bay to try to win Dany and her dragons to his side. This is still about Aegon being king, even though he wants to win Dany's support and the dragons, plus her sheen of legitimacy. But Aegon says no, I want to go to Westeros. Proceed to ...

4. Aegon takes Storm's End, declares himself and, apparently, does his best to snap up the support of the powerful bannermen. If he's successful, he doesn't even need Dany anymore, and if people believe he's real, his claim trumps hers anyway.

So while the plan may have shifted based on realities, it was always about Aegon, not Dany.

Totally agree with your conclusion, no discussion about that.

However, the original plan of V+I in AGOT as described in the conversation that Arya overheard and which she kinda sorta told Ned about, was that a khalasar of Dothraki was supposed to invade Westeros. They groomed and used Viserys and Daenerys to accomplish that. Viserys and Daenerys were not sent to the Dothraki to get rid of them, I think. Why put them up in your own home for years and then send them away and hope (but not be sure) that they would be eliminated, if elimination was your goal from the outset? No, the Dothraki were essential to their plan from the start, and did not become a handy afterthought later on in the scheme.

I'm not entirely sure about the timelines here, but if I recall correctly they were talking about this before Dany and Viserys even had met Khal Drogo. And of course, for a little while it seemed that they had succeeded with this part of the plan. Even after when Viserys got himself crowned - which I think they may have foreseen, Viserys being Viserys.

Even so, I agree Aegon always was and always had been the central point in their plans.

The plan for the invading Khalasar may well have been the decimation of Robert's troops, and thereafter them being a scapegoat for a rightfull Targaryen/Blackfyre claimant to put the boot down on.

Daenerys indeed may have got a more important role to play when the long-shot-Dragon-eggs-hatching-scheme unexpectedly paid off. Somehow I do not think it was entirely a coincidence that Illyrio gave the eggs to Daenerys. I'm not sure if he/they had high expectations for the eggs, but in the back of his/their mind he/they may have put some money on the return of live dragons.

And the Blackfyre/Targaryen reunion may have been an essential part of the plan form the outset as well. I am not completely sure about this part either, but I think the "for the good for the realm" thing may be an indication for this. Obviously, they then would have needed to get rid of Khal Drogo at some point. Then Drogo was eliminated by MMD, but unfortunately, too early for their plans.

After this, Dany became even more powerful than they had expected. When she lost momentum in Meeren, their focus shifted on Aegon going to Slaver's Bay, instead of Dany coming to Volantis.

Your third and fourth step I agree on. Except when Aegon were to be on the throne but Dany still would claim it for herself - not with the stronger claim but with the greater power - all plans would become useless.

They desperately need Dany's agreement on all this scheming, and I think a marriage may be their best option. Hence the missions of first Selmy and later Tyrion.

Alternatively, somebody would need to figure out an effective means of getting rid of the dragons, the unsullied, and now also a khalasar, if I interpret Dany's last chapter correctly. Because these would all invade Westeros with Dany AFTER Aegon decimated the last resistance there, but would undoubtedly have suffered significant losses himself too. A reversal of the original set-up...

Anyhow, Dany is more central to their plans now than you give her credit for. She has to be - if they don't factor her in enough, their plans will go up in smoke (literally!)

[Lummel]

Yeah I saw that later in the chapter. Though he said he was poor in his youth, makes me wonder how he could have a marble statue made of him.

It was made of him while he was a youth and poor. It doesn't say that he had it made, presumably he was the artist's model or muse and later bought the thing.