AFOC release to first ADWD sample

[jvvst3]

Does anyone happen to know how much time elapsed between when AFFC was released and the first ADWD sample chapter was released? I would like to compare this time to the time that elapsed between the release of ADWD and the first TWOW sample chapter. I know it's lame, but a man must occupy his time with something during the wait.

The TWOW sample chapter was released on December 28, 2011 and ADWD was released on July 12, 2011, so about 4.5 months.

Also, apparently George had about 100 pages that he moved from ADWD to TWOW, so all in all, I am taking this as a sign that he might be making decent progress on the book. I actually wasn't expecting to hear anything about TWOW till fall 2012 (no evidence for this date, just the expectation I had built into my mind).

What does everyone think?

[Sarge]

Does anyone happen to know how much time elapsed between when AFFC was released and the first ADWD sample chapter was released?

Actually the first ADWD sample chapter was released something like (at least) 6 years before AFFC was released.

[HouseLark]

I wouldn't necessarily count on those 100 pages from ADWD making it into TWOW. It would be intersting to know if the chapters released so far are really new or offcuts from ADWD, my suspicion is that the Theon chapter is new. I'm still expecting TWOW in 2013/2014 :)

[Happy Ent]

What does everyone think?

Hi jvvst3, and welcome to the board.

I suggest you find something else to obsess about. It will be many, many years before Winds hits the shelves.

The chapters that GRRM has released were probably written for Dance (and then removed), so they do not in any way indicate progress, or even activity, on writing Winds. It would be consistent with our information if GRRM so far had produced 0 new pages for Winds. In fact, I hope this is the case; I dearly hope that Martin has taken some substantial time off writing Song in order to recharge his batteries.

I’d be happy if he started producing new material in 2012, but can’t complain if he wants to take a longer break. And who knows, maybe he is already back to writing? That would be great, of course.

In any case, you cannot base an estimation of his writing speed on the release of chapters that have presumably been written long time ago (say, 2010).

[Happy Ent]

Actually the first ADWD sample chapter was released something like (at least) 6 years before AFFC was released.

That’s the Dany chapter with the child’s bones, or maybe Tyrion in a barrel, right? So the time between the first sample chapter and the actual book was, what? 10 years?

So, using jvvst3’s logic, the Theon chapter would have to have been released in 2005 in order for us to hope for a 2015-16 release of Winds? Hehe.

[ipsuel]

I'm not really up to speed on the many reasons ADwD took so long -- but was under the impression that the Meerenese Knot and the 5-Year Gap were the main issues the book took so long... If that's the case, and those 2 problems have been 'solved' -- shouldn't it stand to reason that TWoW will come much more quickly than ADwD did?

It doesn't seem like people have much hope for that, so I'm wondering what I missed... I.e. --> What is the reason this time, that the book will take so long? If he already knows where the story is going, what his plans are -- even with a gazillion re-writes, it shouldn't be that many years -- right?

(Or am I just a ridiculously hopeful person lol?)

[slayer420]

That’s the Dany chapter with the child’s bones, or maybe Tyrion in a barrel, right? So the time between the first sample chapter and the actual book was, what? 10 years?

So, using jvvst3’s logic, the Theon chapter would have to have been released in 2005 in order for us to hope for a 2015-16 release of Winds? Hehe.

Ent you having fun messing with the Noobs again?

[Arkash]

Because better preparing for the worst to have eventually a good surprise! ^^

[ipsuel]

Because better preparing for the worst to have eventually a good surprise! ^^

I agree, and I've prepared myself for it to take forever. That being said, I didn't have the wait that most of you did, since I didn't start the books til what, about a year ago (maybe less). [i loved them so much, I took a week vacation from my job just to read haha].

Anyway... I guess what I'm asking is this... No disrespect to GRRM, but what's gonna be his excuse this time? I do think at some point, (although this is 100% his baby and he doesn't owe me jack-sh*t), but I do think at some point, a writer should/would feel a responsibility to his fans. You know, the ones who are shelling out the $$ for his product.

While I get that it takes time (hell, it would take me 20 years!) -- I think it would be downright disrespectful towards the fans if the next books take as long as the prior one. Especially since he claims to know where is going with the story/characters and the previous issues have been resolved.

[Happy Ent]

While I get that it takes time (hell, it would take me 20 years!) -- I think it would be downright disrespectful towards the fans if the next books take as long as the prior one.

It already did. When Feast came out, after years and years of agonized waiting, we were exactly where we are now: surely the next book can’t take as long!

Well, it did. I assume Martin meant no disrespect.

I repeat my advice to stop obsessing about this. There are other books. Maybe we’ll have Winds in 5 years, maybe not. There is very little we can do about it.

[Lionofwar87]

I'd love to see TWOW released somewhere around 2013/late 2014. I feel with the HBO series, D&E stories and outside content (comics etc) this will be an easier wait than alot of the veteran GRRM readers will have endured over the past decade.

As being a fan that jumped on the bandwagon after the HBO series and reading through the series this past fall (with the exception of the Dunk & Egg stories), I can understand the OP's obsession. I was lucky enough to read the novels after a majority of the season 2 cast was announced, though i'm sure some could argue that may ruin the fun of the imagination, it helped me digest the massive amount of content. The artist Amoka in the wiki was a HUGE help!

Anyways, that was off-topic. The series is extremely fresh in my mind and i'm looking forward to becoming a better quality contributor to westeros.org over the next couple years. The series has re-ignited my love for reading in general so i'll learn to move on but for now.....MOOOOOOAR!!!!!!

[ipsuel]

It already did. When Feast came out, after years and years of agonized waiting, we were exactly where we are now: surely the next book can’t take as long!

Well, it did. I assume Martin meant no disrespect.

I repeat my advice to stop obsessing about this. There are other books. Maybe we’ll have Winds in 5 years, maybe not. There is very little we can do about it.

No, I am sure he meant/means no disrespect -- of course the whole wait is not malicious or anything lol! I just mean that, there is something to be said to hustling a little with this book. (Just as I sometimes have to hustle at work for our best clients--its a respect thing). Do I think he MEANS disrespect? Nope.... Do I think it IS disrespectful? Sure, in a way.

I'm not really sure who is "obsessing" but I can assure you I'm not. It was just a simple question... the meat of which I still don't know... maybe I worded it wrong, but as far as I know (which isn't much!) -- there are no inherent problems (like the 5 year thing) with TWoW.

Is that correct?

[Arkash]

I'd love to see TWOW released somewhere around 2013/late 2014. I feel with the HBO series, D&E stories and outside content (comics etc) this will be an easier wait than alot of the veteran GRRM readers will have endured over the past decade.

I agree, the serie will be of an amazing help for the wait !

[Happy Ent]

but as far as I know (which isn't much!) -- there are no inherent problems (like the 5 year thing) with TWoW.

Is that correct?

On 1 September 2001 Martin announced that there were problems with the five year gap. (http://www.westeros..../Month/2001/09/) This basically meant he had to scrap most of what he had done for Feast and go back to square 0 for that book. It was completed in May 2005, and the rewrites occurring from the five year gap-removal were mentioned by many as the argument for the perceived delay in publication for Feast.

When Feast was published, it was announced as a split book, and Martin said that Dance was half-way done and hoped it to be published soon (end of the year, as it says in the foreword). I have seen no instances where the scrapped five-year gap (from 2001) was used to motivate the perceived delay in publication of Dance.

[ipsuel]

Happy Ent:

Ty! That's exactly what I was asking... I knew a little bit, but just what I'd heard on boards and whatnot -- so ty for filling me in! :)

[kephv]

I’d be happy if he started producing new material in 2012, but can’t complain if he wants to take a longer break. And who knows, maybe he is already back to writing? That would be great, of course.

I wouldn't complain either, but he is back to writing if the reports are believed. He said he'd be back to writing in earlier 2012.

When Feast was published, it was announced as a split book, and Martin said that Dance was half-way done and hoped it to be published soon (end of the year, as it says in the foreword). I have seen no instances where the scrapped five-year gap (from 2001) was used to motivate the perceived delay in publication of Dance.

I don't know if he ever used that specifically, but judging from all the various interviews, I took it that the five year gap removal pretty much caused (or indirectly caused) most of his writing problems with Dance and Feast. I don't have the exact quote but it was something along the lines of certain characters getting way out of sync because of it (certain characters were ready to move, others weren't, and he had to find ways to deal with that and make it all line up). He mentioned that while the five year gap didn't work for a lot of situations/characters, it did work really well for others.

The Meereenese knot seems a good example of this, as he wouldn't have had to wrestle with getting characters there over a five year period.

[Ser Cortnay Penrose]

On 1 September 2001 Martin announced that there were problems with the five year gap. (http://www.westeros..../Month/2001/09/) This basically meant he had to scrap most of what he had done for Feast and go back to square 0 for that book. It was completed in May 2005, and the rewrites occurring from the five year gap-removal were mentioned by many as the argument for the perceived delay in publication for Feast.

When Feast was published, it was announced as a split book, and Martin said that Dance was half-way done and hoped it to be published soon (end of the year, as it says in the foreword). I have seen no instances where the scrapped five-year gap (from 2001) was used to motivate the perceived delay in publication of Dance.

These are very good points. It shows that the delays before AFfC could be sufficiently explained by story-related problems in the writing process. The big problem was the five year gap that didn't work. So he had to scrap all the material he had written for one and a half year, and start from scratch. This off course meant a lot of new story-related problems that needed to be resolved. Then, a new problem arrived, when the book had gotten too long to be published in just one volume. GRRM then decided to split the story geographicly, wich in turn meant a new set of structural problems with the story that he had to deal with.

So when AFfC came out, he had most likely solved the major parts of the problems that arised from the collapse of the five year gap. He had also finished about one half of the next book already, and stated himself that he expected the next book to be out the following year.

Then he used six years to finish half a book. Now, he can't have been spending all this time reshuffling chapters and pondering on the Meereneese knot. There must have been a large component of motivation problems involved. He must have had long periods with total lack of interest in this project, for it to take this long. Let's hope that he now has gotten his inspiration back.

[Arkash]

I know, as I writer, and even if it's a little presomptuous to say that from me, that yes, you can spend months not writing a line, considering abandoning your work, completely demotivated... I'be spend once six months not touching my work, and one day, you find the solution, or the sentence, or the idea, or the motivation to write a passage and you go again.

[R'hllor-Is-The-Truth]

Didn't i hear something about a sample chapter coming with the paper back edition of Dance. Which might come out in June or July

[The Lost Lord]

I would like to compare this time to the time that elapsed between the release of ADWD and the first TWOW sample chapter. I know it's lame, but a man must occupy his time with something during the wait.

You can't tell anything from this because the Theon chapter and Arianne chapter were both already completed during the writing process of ADWD. So it's not a sign of new progress. There will be another chapter in the paperback edition of ADWD this summer, but that will also likely be from the already-completed material. Also, I believe 8 ADWD sample chapters were released in 2005 (because they were completed during the writing process of AFFC), yet the book remained 6 years away.

Martin said throughout 2011 that he planned to restart work on TWOW in January 2012. So, if he stuck to that, he's been working for a month and a half on it now. If you enjoy wallowing in optimistic thoughts, I'd point out that if TWOW gets written at the same lightning-quick pace that he wrote ASOS, it would be finished around May 2013. If you prefer not to get your hopes up, I'd point out that according to the pace of AFFC/ADWD, he'd probably finish around 2019.