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R+L=J v.20


Angalin

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Yeah I'm not seeing it, at all. Even from a crackpot angle it's just too ridiculous.

Ned rebelled after his father and brother were brutally murdered, his sister was "kidnapped" and his own severed head was demanded. If that isn't just cause to rebel, not sure what is. Big difference between Ned rebelling as a wronged noble and Jaime killing the king he was sworn to protect in all events, not just "unless the king's an asshole."

I have no idea what "skulked around from the Vale to the North" means. He was at the Eyrie being fostered and went back north to call his banners. Obviously he had to be careful where he went and who saw him, but that's not really the same as "skulking."

Ned probably did not have extramarital sex, at least not after he was married. As for people being willing to believe that, it's more like, "If it happened to Ned, anyone could fail." Not, "Wow Ned's a horndog."

I also have no idea where you get the idea that Ned meant to take Winterfell from his brother, when he insinuates numerous times that he was never meant to rule and doesn't really want to. Ned was raised to be a dutiful soldier who took commands and that's how he behaves. Power doesn't really suit him. How do you square that with some greedy guy out to screw over his brother and work toward his death?

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@Golden_Griffin

but I don't mean to offend you or accuse you that you didn't double-checked Ned's words :D however I do remember Ned thinking that he was not supposed to inherit Winterfell and actually he didn't want to.

Now I might as well be wrong in this one cause I always took for granted that Ned was (and he'll always be in my heart :frown5: ) and honorable man but I'll try to find the quote :D

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I'd argue that his GOT reputation for honour was something he'd cultivated after the end of the rebellion.

Doubtful. In AGOT, when Robert suggests they run off together, Ned says "we are not the boys we once were," and Robert replies "you were never the boy you were," indicating that Ned was always a stick in the mud.

Also, as mentioned by Summerqueen, Ned was not with Brandon when he changed course for King's Landing, so there was no way he could have stopped him even if he wanted to.

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@ Golden_Griffin: dude! What a bad-ass theory! I could see it goin that way. 

I have a theory too.. . But bare with me, it's kinda long. 

Ned and Robert were both fostered with Jon Arryn, they were all living at the Eyrie. The tourney at Harrenhal happens in the year of the false spring, when Robert and Ned and Cersie et. al., were teenagers. (late teens perhaps, but still fairly young)

Hoster Tully had ambitions both southward and northward for his children, and though his daughters were onthe market, no betrothals were set in ink yet. 

My suspicion is that Rickard Stark ALSO had Southron ambitions, and was planning on marrying HIS kids off to Southern lords. (why marry your children to Northern Lords when you already have their alliegance?)  so the tourney is a likely setting for these great lords to do their betrothing. 

Now, another important factor is WHY the Harrenhall tourney was such a BIG DEAL... We know from Barristan the Bold that Rhaegar was meeting with some highborn lords to plan his early ascension to Kinghhod. (Aerys was called The Mad King long before he burned Rickard and strangled Brandon....and things were getting out of control. Plus, Prince Dragon had a motha-effing prophecy to fulfill- yo?) 

Aerys, goaded via Varys, get's his paranoid panties in a twist and leaves King's Landing for the first time since the Duskendale fiasco, ostensibly to keep an eye on his son. (and to make sure the spurned Tywin didn't get his plotting mind anywhere near Rhaegar.) 

While at the tourney, (a massive event that could take weeks if not longer) the wolf pups meet up, and the dragon meets the beautiful Lyanna. Something clicks in his head; "It's ICE and Fire, not SAND and fire! *facepalm*" and "whoa damn, that chick is hot." 

During the tourney, Rhaegar and Lyanna could have had an affair of the heart- not really having sex, but rather getting friendly, chatting, he brings her a flower, dances with her etc... 

Lyanna has her wolffish moment when she defends the young Crannogman in his hour of need, and Reed becomes close with the Starks. 

Probably, during these trysts with Rhaegar and Lyanna have the serious talk all burgeoning relationships have at some point: where is this going? Maybe they decided to break it off since he was married, maybe only she decided to break it off. (I don't know a lot of Rhaegar's personality, but we know from Barriston that Dany is a LOT like him. What did she do when "forced" to choose between duty and lust? She picked both; Reznak AND Daario.) that being said, Rhaegar probly wanted both too. 

At the apex of the tourney, when Rhaegar wins, he crowns not his wife, but his "consort", to everyone's dismay and (likely) confusion. This somehow proves to Lyanna that Rhaegar really does care for her, Gods and men be damned. 

Swept away by her emotions, after the tourney ends, Lyanna slips away from the group (Ned and Robert and Jon are not with them, because they're headed for the Vail) and (again, this is all conjecture) Benjen and Reed go after her. 

Rhaegar and Lyanna rendezvous at TOJ, (or possibly Summerhall because he often went there (without his kings guard). From there, Rhaegar can have a small retainer of trusted sword takin care of Lyanna al la Tyrion and Shae, and visit often between there an King's Landing. Rhaegar could have had his commisioning of the construction of the Tower of Joy as his cover story for why he is absentee most the time. 

 Ben and Howaland see that she's just lovesick, and they have to go back to Winterfell without her. Presumably to let Papa Wolf know his daughter is being stubborn again, and won't come home. 

Rickard and Brandon take this the wrong way. "How DARE he!" Rickard thinks, "He's going to ruin all my plans for the Wolf and Stag alliance!" 

"How dare she!" Brandon thinks, "When he's had his fun he'll leave her, and then I, future Lord of Winterfell, will have to take care of her sorry ass until I can pawn off these used goods on a lesser house!" 

They decide to go to King's landing and teach Prince Greedy Pants who's boss. Perhaps there is even talk of being kings again, these dragons aren't such bad asses with their pet monsters all dead... AND Brandon may have realized that if he goes South, he can see the beautiful (and elligable) Ashara Dayne again! So off he races, southward to save the family honor before the whole damn kingdom finds out and explodes. 

But, Rhaegar's not even there. Instead King Paranoid locks up Brandon and sends for Rickard to answer for these heinous allegations. 

Somehow, word gets to the Vail. I'll use a phrase from Pratchett and say "a lie can race around the world before the truth even gets it's boots on." Robert and Ned and Jon learn-not that Lyanna and Rhaegar have run away as lovers-but that the Tatgaryens have kidnapped Lyanna, incarcerated Brandon, and threatened Rickard. 

"Don't worry, bro," they say, "we called the banners and help is on the way!"

Meanwhile: Brandon, who is probably kept in some cushy tower cell, and Ashara, the lady in waiting, get busy getting busy. Ashara realizes she's preggers, and-not wanting to rub it in Princess Elia's face (and also to hide her shame) she heads for home. On her way, she hangs out with Lyanna, whose location was divulged by her brother, the Sword of the Morning. 

However, everything goes terribly awry. Aerys isn't happy with Rickard and Bran and their "lies about his son" and decides to teach them a terrible (and burnt) lesson. 

Robert and Ned and Jon hear of this, and they decide to march on Kings landing with their collective strength. But ambitious Hoster Tully realizes that if he doesn't get his girls married and pregnant, he may loose his chances forever, and Lysa might get it in her head that SHE needs to pull a Lyanna but with someone less cool-Petyr Baelish. He tells the guys that they aren't getting any of the Tully Swords untill he gets two marriages. Jon agrees-"sure, she's already proven fertile..."

So the giant host of Baraetheon, Stark, and Arryn have to make a pit stop in the river lands. 

While Ned and Jon are busy with their new wives, "dude-we married sisters! *fist bump*" Tywin Lannister sends his regards, and offers Robert Cersie, as a consolation prize. Tywin's a rich mother effer, plus, he has an "in" with Aerys, so Robert shrugs and says, sure, why not? 

Rhaegar, having planted the last head of his dragon into his lovely wolf bride, rushes off to defend his love- because Robert is gonna be SO pissed when he finds out. He'll deal with the lousy Dornish afterwards, It's not like Prince Caution is going to act rashly or anything. 

But he gets his face smashed in, and his last thoughts were probably something along the lines of "I guess I'm not the Prince who was Promised after all". 

Erstwhile, Lyanna gets a letter off to Benjen, (castellan of winterfell) saying "hey, I've got a dragon growing inside me! Could you please let Ned know that he needs to stop all this nonsense." Ben counsels her to send Ashara to find Ned, cause he's busy playing Lord. 

Tywin does his dirty deeds in King's landing, just as Ned arrives. Ned is furious at the murder of Elia and her babies, but Robert's not even phased. "you've gotta break a few eggs to get a delicious omlett, Ned. Relax." Furious, Ned goes off to help Stannis, who by this time is wasting away at Storm's End. 

By the time word finally gets back to Ned of Lyanna's location (and failing health) he gets his best friends together and races against time-hopefully to salvage something of this farce of a war. 

We know what happens when he gets there, but I don't know why he couldn't explain to Arthur Dayne that he was just there to check up on his sister and her child, who by the way can't ever be king. 

That ends badly, as we know. He then has to go to the grief stricken Ashara, who lost her love, and her baby, to tell her that, sorry, I killed your brother. Devastated, she throws herself off the tower. 

What do you think? Did I get all the major events in that timeline? 

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@Golden_Griffin

You're absolutely crazy - I like that :drunk:

And wouldn't it be fascinating if Martin subverted everything we believe in since the first book? Only I think it's highly unlikely. Not everyone can be a Machiavellian plotter in this series, we need some contrast. If Ned was that ambitious, he's probably have lasted longer anyway. Also, Ned's joining the rebellion was honorable in its own way because he was doing that for his family's sake. I know generally "the king and the country" is supposed to come before one's family, but who really follows that logic? And, finally, like others mentioned, Ned's POV indicates he never wanted to be Lord (and he really doesn't have the required personality, if we're honest), and one can't lie to themselves in their POV.

About Benjen's joining the NW, I go with the more popular theory that he simply knew about Lyanna and Rhaegar and actually helped them escape, then joined the Watch as penance.

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^ That was really long, so I'm going to only tackle part of it.

1. I don't think Rhaegar and Lyanna had an affair at Harrenhal. I think she was the Knight of the Laughing Tree and he met her and became infatuated in that capacity. I don't think they "ran off" together that soon after the tournament.

2. I don't think Benjen, if he knew, had the chance to really explain anything. I think everyone genuinely thought it was an abduction.

3. Your ideas about the northern/river lords wanting good marriage alliances are pretty spot-on, but Tywin wouldn't have put up Cersei until after the war. He only came out for Robert at the very end.

4. I don't think Lyanna "got letters off" to anyone. I think Ashara Dayne knew where she was and it was her who tipped off Ned, after the Sack. Arthur and Co. are not about to let the babv-killing Usurper's BFF anywhere near their king, kinship or not.

5. Ashara may or may not have actually committed suicide.

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Apple martini:

Regarding point 5, really?!?

What evidence supports that? (other than the general knowledge that nobody is dead unless you actually SEE it happen in GRRM books?)

Half the fandom believes her to be Septa Lemore, that's the "evidence" xD

Also, sorry, but I had to laugh reading your theory, particularly their inner thoughts and the mention of Doran. But most of its points are probably true :cool4:

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Apple martini:

Regarding point 5, really?!?

What evidence supports that? (other than the general knowledge that nobody is dead unless you actually SEE it happen in GRRM books?)

Her body was never found.

In a work of fiction such as this, that's basically a red flag that she's still alive.

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OK soo...totally forgot the POV bits of Ned not actually wanting to be Lord. That torpedoes my main theory. I humbly apologise.

BUT

Doesn't really answer my main questions:

4. I don't think Lyanna "got letters off" to anyone. I think Ashara Dayne knew where she was and it was her who tipped off Ned, after the Sack. Arthur and Co. are not about to let the babv-killing Usurper's BFF anywhere near their king, kinship or not.

If Ashara told the victorious "Usurper's BFF" where TOJ was, she'd basically be signing her own brother's death warrant. Which works in terms of her suicide...except you don't seem to believe she committed suicide.

But mainly, why did no-one 'in the know' try to stop the war? Even if Benjen and Ned did not know, Lyanna pretty much made the most selfish decision ever, right? "Either I'm publicly shamed (and my son, who has no rights anyway, is probably shunned), or a whole continent fights a monstrous civil war endangering my lover, finance, brother and friends"

It needn't even be that bad if she'd come clean - as the product of Targ and Stark, Jon would be the same rank as a 'great bastard' and probably have just as good a life as he did in Winterfell.

Selfish Lyanna.

On a secondary note, I'm interested what the board thinks of Barristan's hint that the Harrenhal Tourney was cover for Rhaegar gathering support to ? de facto supplant his father? and whether that would've ?solved most of the problems?

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But mainly, why did no-one 'in the know' try to stop the war? Even if Benjen and Ned did not know, Lyanna pretty much made the most selfish decision ever, right? "Either I'm publicly shamed (and my son, who has no rights anyway, is probably shunned), or a whole continent fights a monstrous civil war endangering my lover, finance, brother and friends"

It needn't even be that bad if she'd come clean - as the product of Targ and Stark, Jon would be the same rank as a 'great bastard' and probably have just as good a life as he did in Winterfell.

Selfish Lyanna.

On a secondary note, I'm interested what the board thinks of Barristan's hint that the Harrenhal Tourney was cover for Rhaegar gathering support to ? de facto supplant his father? and whether that would've ?solved most of the problems?

The war didn't happen simply because Rhaegar "kidnapped" Lyanna or something like that; whether we believe in a conspiracy or not, we have to admit such a rebellion was the result of accumulated grievances against the Targ monarch. Lyanna was just the Franz Ferdinand there.

Besides, do you think in such a society they would listen to what a woman had to say about her own actions? She didn't have a say in anything that happened afterwards, and after Brandon stormed through KL and demanded his sister's return, nothing less than a war could happen. And he would have acted that foolishly anyway, from what we know about his temper.

Now, if Rhaegar's reform could have prevented anything... I don't know. There's strong evidence supporting the idea that the Tully-Baratheon-Stark-Arryn alliance was already formed and strong by the time of Harrenhall, and probably determined to at least limit the extent of the monarch's power. I have no idea how much Rhaegar could have negotiated with them to prevent a rebellion at some point, but if he really intended to take Aerys from the throne... that could have helped.

Edit: also, if Rhaegar's plan was to gather support to dethrone his father, he ruined everything by crowning Lyanna and creating the awkward situation with the Starks, Baratheons, and Martells. That was the moment that proved to me that, no matter how noble his intentions were to change the way Westeros was ruled, Targ madness was already flourishing in his blood.

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to me it seems that people "in the know" approved of the revolution and the war for various reasons. The abduction of Lyanna was only the match that started the fire. So, why stop it?

Now, about Lyanna's behavior.... you obviously believe that she followed Rhaegar voluntarily. Did she? Maybe she was in love with him after all but not willing to follow him. Maybe she was so much in love with him she behaved stupidly. Lets not forget she was only a teenager, even though we have hints she was wise enough for her age. But the guy was astonishingly handsome and he was singing and playing the harp! how could a girl resist to that???? if there's someone to blame for this, it should probably be Rhaegar. He should have known better.

but, as a girl hopelessly romantic, I believe that love can make you do extremely stupid things. And that was one.

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He calls Jon his son to other people. He never once thinks of Jon as his son and actually excludes Jon from the list of his children that he forms in his head.

"..against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do! Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon's life, against the children of her body!"

I don't see how Jon is excluded from this list, writing Jon twice would of made the sentence awkward.

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"..against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do! Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon's life, against the children of her body!"

I don't see how Jon is excluded from this list, writing Jon twice would of made the sentence awkward.

Where in that quote does Ned list Jon as his son? He only mentions Jon as an example of the "other child", the one against whom Catelyn would (hypothetically) have to weigh the lives of her children.

And as I said in the last thread, I don't see why George would exclude Jon from the list just to make the sentence less awkward, if Jon is actually Ned's son. He could just as easily have re-written things to allow for Jon to be in the list. If anything, I think he put Jon in the second sentence precisely so as to trick people into thinking that Ned thinks of Jon as his son, when upon closer inspection it becomes clear that nothing of the sort is implied in the quotation.

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OK soo...totally forgot the POV bits of Ned not actually wanting to be Lord. That torpedoes my main theory. I humbly apologise.

BUT

Doesn't really answer my main questions:

If Ashara told the victorious "Usurper's BFF" where TOJ was, she'd basically be signing her own brother's death warrant. Which works in terms of her suicide...except you don't seem to believe she committed suicide.

But mainly, why did no-one 'in the know' try to stop the war? Even if Benjen and Ned did not know, Lyanna pretty much made the most selfish decision ever, right? "Either I'm publicly shamed (and my son, who has no rights anyway, is probably shunned), or a whole continent fights a monstrous civil war endangering my lover, finance, brother and friends"

It needn't even be that bad if she'd come clean - as the product of Targ and Stark, Jon would be the same rank as a 'great bastard' and probably have just as good a life as he did in Winterfell.

Selfish Lyanna.

On a secondary note, I'm interested what the board thinks of Barristan's hint that the Harrenhal Tourney was cover for Rhaegar gathering support to ? de facto supplant his father? and whether that would've ?solved most of the problems?

The only issue I have with this is that if lyanna came clean about her son being rhaegars I dont think he would've gotten 'great bastard' treatment. I think it's more likely he'd have gotten the same treatment as the other targaryen children

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I should really go back and think about things before I post a book. Apparently Roberto's rebellion was 2 years long, so when exactly did L run off after Harrenhall?

The war lasted "close to" a year from the beginning to the Sack. We don't exactly know when the beginning of the war is dated, but most people put at when Jon Arryn raised his banners. The 2-year figure probably includes the time it took Stannis to build a fleet and take Dragonstone.

As for Harrenhal, it is believed that the tourney there took place up to a year before the start of the war. This is based on the ages of the characters (Jaime was 15, Ned was 18) as well as a SSM where George states that the Year of the False Spring (the year in which the tourney took place) was a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion.

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Ashara wasn't with Elia in the last year of Elia's life, I'm pretty sure.

Ashara likely had to leave the court in disgrace after getting pregnant at Harrenhal. The Dorne has more open sex rules, but I don't think that these would fly in the King's Landing.

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