R+L=J v.21

[Gala]

Funny, I would have sworn I entered a post here. - Clever me, to type walls of text in the editor first :-), so here we go again:

I should probably state in the first place that I'm no expert in genetics, I just find the topic interesting and read something here and there.

The example above was a simplified model, but since I don't think GRRM is an expert, either, it should probably do. Let's take a look:

The fact that Ned's hair is brown (dominant variation of the gene, marked "A") does not really matter as long as there was at least one blonde ancestor in his line whose variant (recessive, marked "a") was passed along the line, even though the trait was not expressed, resulting in Ned's own gene combination being Aa (brown overrides blonde but blonde can still be passed on). When he marries Catelyn, your shuffled deck comes with four children inheriting the recessive "a" variant and only Arya the dominant "A". The usual Stark colouring is thus still dominant but it allows other variants to become manifest, and statistics is a bitch.

Now, Robert with his black hair. His own genetic makeup is definitely AA, i.e. both variants of the gene are dominant. He tends to prefer light-haired women, whose genes are composed of recessive variants. Their offspring then invariably inherit the Aa combination, and are all blackhaired (but able to pass on the light colour to their own offspring). His blue eyes are the other case - aa combination. However, light-haired women tend to have light eyes, as well, and so the chance of offspring having blue eyes is still quite high (but eye colour seems to be a pretty complicated matter and genetics here bends to the plot, I guess)

Rhaegar and Elia:

Targ features seem to be recessive, and maintained due to the interbreeding, so Rhaegar's combination is aa, and so he passes on just the "a" variant. Dark-haired and dark-eyed Elia definitely possesses one A variant, but due to a Targ ancestor, it is quite possible that the other variant in her pair is also a recessive "a" (hm, just realized why English goes with marking "b"instead of "a". Never mind), so her combination is Aa, which again perfectly allows dark-haired Rhaenys and silver-haired Aegon.

Now, the real-world genetics seems a bit more complex, http://en.wikipedia....iki/Hair_colour, but I still think that in Ursa's family, the dominant variant was not passed on and the family will continue as blonde. As for the whole set of racial features, that's a result of many genes and combinations, and the outcome is really unpredictable, at least with the current state of knowledge.

Nice post. You made it more clear. Originally, I just expressed my doubts about "disappearing of genes". And I also said that probably Martin didn't actually put a lot of thought on the problem of genetics in Westoros. ;)

If you read my posts carefully I quoted Bulgakov: "Blood (genetics, genes etc) is a bizarrely shuffled deck of cards" - it is quite impossible to predict what features the baby will have. We can use statistics, solve genetical riddles, but it is really unpredictable, even now with all our knowledge and abilities.

[Sasha Steelsong]

Problem with your explanation is that Rheagar died before Aerys....however, with the 3 kingsguard(including the lord commander of them) guarding the ToJ, i suspect that THEY considered Rheagar the King and were "in on" his designs to change things once the rebellion was put down(so they assumed), thus, they hung around the Toj as the last legitimate living child of Rheagars loins was within(so they thought).

My thoughts about it anyways.

Except we know from Ned's recollection that all three KG knew that Rhaegar and Aerys were dead when Ned showed up. The fact that Rhaegar died before Aerys would do nothing to change the fact that even with Rhaegar dead, his son(s) would have inherited after Aerys died. The crown would not have gone to Viserys unless Rhaegar had no living legitimate boys (girls were out as options after the Dance of Dragons). The fact that the KG know that Rhaegar and Aerys and Aegon are dead and still do not think it is their duty to go to Viserys, combined with their assertion that they were at the TOJ doing their duty, suggests that Jon was legitimate (and not in a way where a king would have had to do it because it is unclear whether Aerys even knew that Rhaegar might have fathered a third child, not to mention that it could have been done before the child was born because they would have to know the gender - again with Targ no women can inherit - or at least that used to be the rule now I think it is up for debate).

[Thoheeks Bili]

Except we know from Ned's recollection that all three KG knew that Rhaegar and Aerys were dead when Ned showed up. The fact that Rhaegar died before Aerys would do nothing to change the fact that even with Rhaegar dead, his son(s) would have inherited after Aerys died. The crown would not have gone to Viserys unless Rhaegar had no living legitimate boys (girls were out as options after the Dance of Dragons). The fact that the KG know that Rhaegar and Aerys and Aegon are dead and still do not think it is their duty to go to Viserys, combined with their assertion that they were at the TOJ doing their duty, suggests that Jon was legitimate (and not in a way where a king would have had to do it because it is unclear whether Aerys even knew that Rhaegar might have fathered a third child, not to mention that it could have been done before the child was born because they would have to know the gender - again with Targ no women can inherit - or at least that used to be the rule now I think it is up for debate).

You basically said the same thing i did. The kingsguard were protecting who they thought was the heir.........period.

[Screaming Knight]

Except we know from Ned's recollection that all three KG knew that Rhaegar and Aerys were dead when Ned showed up. The fact that Rhaegar died before Aerys would do nothing to change the fact that even with Rhaegar dead, his son(s) would have inherited after Aerys died. The crown would not have gone to Viserys unless Rhaegar had no living legitimate boys (girls were out as options after the Dance of Dragons). The fact that the KG know that Rhaegar and Aerys and Aegon are dead and still do not think it is their duty to go to Viserys, combined with their assertion that they were at the TOJ doing their duty, suggests that Jon was legitimate (and not in a way where a king would have had to do it because it is unclear whether Aerys even knew that Rhaegar might have fathered a third child, not to mention that it could have been done before the child was born because they would have to know the gender - again with Targ no women can inherit - or at least that used to be the rule now I think it is up for debate).

I agree that the kingsguard was protecting who they considered the heir. But is that the law of succession? If the prince dies before the king, and the princes first born son also is dead, wouldn't the crown pass to the kings 2nd born son and not the princes 2nd born son. Or did it go like this?

Rhaegar-dies and Aegon becomes heir

Aerys- dies and Aegon is king

Aegon- dies shortly after aerys and Jon becomes king?

[Dragonfish]

I agree that the kingsguard was protecting who they considered the heir. But is that the law of succession? If the prince dies before the king, and the princes first born son also is dead, wouldn't the crown pass to the kings 2nd born son and not the princes 2nd born son. Or did it go like this?

Rhaegar-dies and Aegon becomes heir

Aerys- dies and Aegon is king

Aegon- dies shortly after aerys and Jon becomes king?

Yes, if Rhaegar dies then Aegon is the new heir, whether or not Rhaegar was king when he died. All of Rhaegar's line must die out before Aerys' other children could inherit (though there is some evidence that female claimants are placed behind all male claimants in the line of succession).

[Independent George]

Someone better versed can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the line of succession went:

1. Aerys

2. Rhaegar

3. Aegon

3A. Jon, IFF he's their legitimate son

4. Rhaenys + spouse

5. Viserys

6. Danaerys + spouse

We don't know that 3A is true, but that would explain why the Kingsguard is at the Tower of Joy. Jon comes before Viserys, and three extra swords couldn't do much at King's Landing, but would greatly help one mother & child.

[the Remarkable Other]

The Targaryen rules of succesion bypass female heirs in favour of all males, even from cadet branches (Criston Cole definitely believed in patriarchy). So then it would be:

1. Aerys

2. Rhaegar

3. Aegon

4. Jon, if legitimate son of Rhaegar

5. Viserys

6. Robert Baratheon

7. Stannis

8. Renly

9. Doran Martell

10. Quentyn Martell (I think he was already born)

11. Oberyn Martell

12. Llewyn Martell He's a KG

13. Rhaenys

14. Daenerys

Technically speaking, I think a male Blackfyre from the female line, if there are any, would come before Rhaenys and Dany.

[imany]

The Baratheons and the Martells are both families stemming from marrying female Targaryens. I doubt their male heirs would take precedence over females from a male Targaryen line.

[the Remarkable Other]

The Baratheons and the Martells are both families stemming from marrying female Targaryens. I doubt their male heirs would take precedence over females from a male Targaryen line.

http://awoiaf.wester..._of_the_Dragons

It is actually a stupid rule of succesion for a family that places great value on the "blood of the dragon", but it's what they chose after the Dance of the Dragons.

[Buried Treasure]

Still, Dany and Rhaenys are actually Targaryens whereas the Baratheons & Martells aren't, they are cousins and seperated by a few generations at that. The extreme patrimony is enough to push Rhaenys back in the succesion behind her uncle Viserys but not for the rule to go to a non-Targ.

[imany]

That wiki link isn't very well sourced, from what I can tell, but assuming it is all correct, the Targaryens were practicing male-preference cognatic primogeniture.

From what I am reading: Rhaenyra was denied the crown in favor of her half-brother Aegon II, and after his death, the crown went to Rhaenyra's son based on Aegon II leaving no male issue. That might be evidence that the Targaryens were practicing absolute male primogeniture by placing all males over females, EXCEPT that according to the family tree, Aegon II left no issue at all, in which case it would (and did) go to the nearest male relative, Rhaenyra's son. Edit: I suppose I am assuming that Aegon III was the eldest living male Targaryen at the time of Aegon II's death, otherwise I don't see why the issue-less Aegon II wouldn't have declared his brother Aemond his successor.

Basically, my thoughts are that the Baratheons are too far removed to have a better claim than Daenerys', except for the War of the Usurper. That's based off Jon's, "A son comes before an uncle. [...] A daughter also comes before an uncle," etc., which seems to be the generally accepted succession rule for Westeros.

Edit: if there is an SSM or more evidence from the books about this, I'd be very interested, but I don't think the wiki is enough to go off of for the succession line.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Someone better versed can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the line of succession went:

1. Aerys

2. Rhaegar

3. Aegon

3A. Jon, IFF he's their legitimate son

4. Rhaenys + spouse

5. Viserys

6. Danaerys + spouse

We don't know that 3A is true, but that would explain why the Kingsguard is at the Tower of Joy. Jon comes before Viserys, and three extra swords couldn't do much at King's Landing, but would greatly help one mother & child.

Not how it works. Females come behind all other possible male claimants. And I don't remember there being a difference between male- and female-line claims, which is to say, a male is always better than a female, even if he descends from a female line.

So it'd be:

1. Aerys

2. Rhaegar

3. Aegon

4. Jon

5. Viserys

6. Another male family member, possibly a Baratheon descended from Rhaelle Targaryen

7. Any other male family members; they might even go back to the male Martells

8. Rhaenys

9. Dany

Basically, my thoughts are that the Baratheons are too far removed to have a better claim than Daenerys', except for the War of the Usurper. That's based off Jon's, "A son comes before an uncle. [...] A daughter also comes before an uncle," etc., which seems to be the generally accepted succession rule for Westeros.

This is true in every instance EXCEPT for succession to the Iron Throne. After the Dance of the Dragons, a woman could only inherit the throne after every other possible male claimant, even a distant one, had been exhausted.

The show kind of hints at this anecdotally. Septa Mordane tells Sansa that if she only has girls, the throne goes to Tommen. Renly tells Loras that he's fourth in line — after Joffrey, Tommen and Stannis but before Myrcella.

[Lady Octarina]

But still, wouldn't the Baratheon and Martell guys be too far from the main Targaryen line, their Targ blood too "diluted", for them to come before the girls? At least if they were already married and had a son?

I think we'll never find an answer to this discussion unless someone asks Martin about that and it goes into the SSM, because, really, we've been around this discussion too many times, in too many threads, and yet the questions are still there.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

But still, wouldn't the Baratheon and Martell guys be too far from the main Targaryen line, their Targ blood too "diluted", for them to come before the girls? At least if they were already married and had a son?

I think we'll never find an answer to this discussion unless someone asks Martin about that and it goes into the SSM, because, really, we've been around this discussion too many times, in too many threads, and yet the questions are still there.

The idea that the Baratheons or the Martells have blood that is that much more diluted than Dany's or Rhaenys' is, I think, incorrect. You have to actually look at the family trees, not just the last name.

If the mainline Targaryens had practiced incest in every succeeding generation, then yes, that might be the case. But they didn't. The Martell-Targaryen line split from the main branch in Daeron II's generation. Daeron II's kids and Daenerys Targaryen's children each would have had the same amount of "Targ blood" in them. Same for their grandchildren (Aegon V's generation) and great-grandchildren (Jaehaerys II). You don't have another inbreeding union until Aerys II and Rhaella. Rhaelle Targaryen's children would have had the same amount of "Targ blood" as Jaehaerys II's — Aerys and Rhaella. If Aerys had marriaged a non-sister, Dany would have the exact same "Targness" as Robert, Stannis and Renly. On the Martell side, their "Targ blood" goes back a few more generations, sure, but again, it's just the one marriage where the mainline Targs have the advantage. So yeah, Dany does have some advantage in the "blood purity" arena. But it's not like she's swimming in Targ blood and the other guys have just a drop. Far from it.

I don't know exactly how the succession works because we've never seen a situation where a female mainline heir has been in immediate conflict with a more distant male relative. But based on my understanding of the Dance of the Dragons aftermath, absolutely the male Baratheons and possibly the Martells would have come before Dany and Rhaenys. And I'll hold that position until Martin specifically says otherwise.

[Buried Treasure]

The Martells and Baraetheons have the same amount of Targ blood as Dany and Rhaenys if we are talking in terms of genes inherited from Aegon I, but that's not the only way of looking at these family trees.

The father-son line of direct succession is the main trunk of any family, and daughters and younger brothers are the branches. The Martells and Baratheons branched off several generations ago, and so are not closely related to the senior Targ branch (Aerys>Rhaegar>Aegon). Rhaenys and Dany are direct off-shoots of that main branch.

Plus candidates such as Robert and Doran were already members of other Houses, and if all the male Targs died it would have upset the balance of power to grant them the titles that had only ever belonged to House Targaryen. Viserys was the last in line male member of House Targaryen so it makes sense to go to the female members of the house (Rhaenys first) before handing power to a different House.

[Lady Octarina]

The father-son line of direct succession is the main trunk of any family, and daughters and younger brothers are the branches. The Martells and Baratheons branched off several generations ago, and so are not closely related to the senior Targ branch (Aerys>Rhaegar>Aegon). Rhaenys and Dany are direct off-shoots of that main branch.

That's what I meant, though my limited vocabulary made it difficult to make clearer :bowdown:

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

<snip>

Like I said, I understand all possible male claimants to mean all possible male claimants. I consider the Baratheon branch to be male claimants, and you don't. I don't consider their branch to be "several generations" removed, and you do. Until push comes to shove in the story and/or Martin confirms it one way or the other, that's where we have to stay, in a deadlock.

ETA: And I'm not talking just about Aegon I. The branches split long after that. Dany and Robert are second cousins. Historically, it's not unusual at all for cousins with a single shared ancestor (i.e. Jane Grey and Mary I, and Mary Stuart and Elizabeth I, all of whom descended from Henry VII, or the Yorks and Lancasters who descended from Edward III) to each have valid, recognized claims to a throne. The Targaryens are pretty much Lancasters and the Baratheons are pretty much Yorks, and that conflict was also called the Cousins War. Remember that it was Robert's Targaryen ancestry that made him the logical choice to king. And in a succession that specifically prevents women from ascending to the throne, I don't think it's odd at all to assume that a collateral male would be put up before a direct female. That's how I understand the aftermath of the Dance of the Dragons.

[Independent George]

Thanks for the clarification on the line of succession. Jeez, that makes no sense whatsoever. It makes me want to punch Criston Cole in the face - partly for the sexism, but mostly for his crimes against logic.

[The guy from the Vale]

I don't think I agree with you there, Apple Martini. Yes, the Baratheons and Martells are male claimants - but only through female claimants in the past. So they would only be considered once we consider female claimants anyway. Rather, I think the line of succession (for people living as of the Tourney of Harrenhal or born after) would be:

Aerys

Rhaegar

Aegon

Jon

Viserys

Aemon

Rhaenys

Daenerys

Robert Baratheon

Stannis Baratheon

Renly Baratheon

Doran Martell

Oberyn Martell

Elia Martell

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

<snip>

Like I said, I say all male claimants because what I've read has said all male claimants and doesn't make a distinction between male claimants through a male line or male claimants through a female line. A male claimant is a male claimant, period. And until Martin clarifies or unless someone can provide evidence to the contrary, I stand by my interpretation of the succession.