Aegon's political position.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

Aegon has as good as won the Iron Throne just by landing on Stormlands and then winning five castles in 15 days , on eof them being Storm's End.

Before Aegon's landing the seven kingdoms were just recovering from total chaos.Lannisters were just putting the pieces back together.

Most of the seven kingdoms have lost their desired leader and they now have someone whose father was fairly popular and they have no conflict with this guy.

Aegon's Political equation with different kingdoms

Dorne

Dornishmen couldn't have asked for more.Now that Daenerys the mad queen has killed one of the Martells,Aegon would be supported even if Daenerys turns against him.

Stormlands

Lords of the Stormlands got a major butt beating by Westerlands and the Reach. I don't think they have any appetite for war now.They would bend the knee to whoever asks them to.Now that Aegon has captured 4 major castles and the strongest caslte in the realm in less than half a month. There is no doubt that Stormlands are his too

North

The North depends on more than one factor and largely on the battle between Roose and Stannis

Case 1: Stannis Wins and Northmen add some strength to his for his campaign southward

Stannis would be a pain in the ass if the North Men support his claim for the Iron Throne.5000-7000 men along with Stannis's reinforcements coming from across the sea with Justin Massey.25,000 Men with Stannis as their commander may cause problem and even the Riverlords might support his claim once they see the Northmen fighting for Stannis.

Case 2: Stannis wins and Northmen abandon him

People in this forum believe that Stannis is gonna be abandoned by the Northmen and the Northmen are not only planning to get rid from the Boltons and the Freys but also from Stannis.Stannis would be totally fucked then and the Northmen may support Aegon to get his revenge against Lannisters.But I don't see any reason for them to support Aegon instead of Stannis once Stannis has his 20,000 sellswords

as they would have almost equal numbers. They may just wait and watch for all it is worth.

Case 3: Boltons win

Boltons are really predictable and will throw in with the strongest player in the game. They may procastinate their judgement to wait and see which way the wind turns. The Dornishmen have 30,000 men , the crownlands around 5,000 and the Westerlands I would say around 15,000-,20,000 when they had 60,000 at the start of the war.The north in this case will depend on the outcomes of other such political attempts at alliances made by Aegon.

Reach

JonCon has friends in the reach and the Lannisters have in laws.JonCon always says that the strength of Reach is not what Mace Tyrell thinks it is. Suggesting that some lords may back stab their liege to back the Blackfyre pretender. If Margaery is convicted of Treason, adultery and other such shit.Mace himself may turn his cloak and take his daughter with him too,to create a fourth marriage pact.

Lords from the Reach who are most likely gonna turn to Aegon

1 Randyll Tarly- Tarly seems to be highly skeptical of JonCon's return.Tarly also has a reason to be pissed off at Mace because he was the rightful lord of Brightwater keep through his wife instead of Garlan.

2 Hightower - Hightowers must be pissed at Iron Thrones obliviousness towards their troubles.But then again Alerie Hightower is Mace's wife ,so you never know.

Lords Who will probably stay loyal

1 Redwyne- Lord Redwyne is Randyll Tarly's first cousin and also his brother in law.He is supposed to be Mace's best friend

2 Rowan- Mathis Rowan is credited to be loyal.

3 Fossoway- Fossoways are related to Tyrells through Garlan's marriage to the woman who poisoned Joffrey

Reach will be probably be the deciding factor in the game of thrones considering that they always had the biggest numbers and have still maintained their strength

Vale

Vale is the second strongest kindgom right now. And it is seriously tough to read Littlefinger's mind.Lord of the Vale might agree to win Sansa back her birth right but they surely won't fulfil her southron ambitions.Littlefinger thinks that he can use Sansa as a pawn and gain North's support alongside Vale. But this looks even less likely now as Rickon Stark is gonna return for sure now.And now that Tyrion is alive and kicking , Sansa's marriage with HArry the heir looks almost impossible.And now that winter is here Vale is not gonna give a fuck about who sits on the Iron Throne

Westerlands

Lords of the west were fairly loyal to the Lannisters when Tywin was alive.Now that the Lannisters have lost all four of their potential leaders the westerlands lack strong leadership. They would be a piece of cake.

Riverlands

Riverlords have lost their hero and their strength . Even with the combined strength of north and riverlands this alliance would be quite ineffective against the southern strength.But I guess they would try their best to avoid unneccessary wars and would look to soldify their own lands.They have enough problems even without any wars.Now if Stannis joins his strength with the North and his 20,000 new sellswords it would be tough for Aegon's army to fight back.

All in all

Aegon is surely gonna be a king.

[Artos Stark]

Aegon is going to have a hard time gaining support IMO. He's going to have to prove that he is a Targ, which is going to be really hard. I do think he might be able to gain support if he indeed is a Blackfyre too, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out but I do think he needs Dany. Dany is for sure a Targ and will absolutely gain support from the Targ supporters.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

If Dorne declares for him people aren't gonna care whether he is a Targ or not. Everyone thinks that Tommen is an abomination born out of incest too but they still support him.

[protar]

I think Aegon will indeed become king for at least a little while, though only of Dorne, The Stormlands, The Crownlands and The Reach, while Stannis rules The North, The Vale, The Riverlands and The Westerlands.

A lot of The Reach lords were Targ loyalists during Robert's Rebellion. I think the Tarly's are secretly supporting Aegon, and will probably declare support for Aegon openly soon. I can see the Hightowers doing the same and as the most powerful house in the reach after the Tyrells that's a lot of support. Many of the other houses will probably turn sides as well, but the Tyrells will only bend the knee once KL has fallen.

The Crown Lands will probably fall as part of the siege of KL, but I also get the feeling that Bronn, ever the opportunist will stirr up rebellion there. The Stormlands have pretty much already fallen to Aegon, seeing as he's got the best fortress in Westeros.

As for Dorne I think they've already switched sides and Arianne will marry Aegon. But I reckon they won't declare openly until after KL has fallen so they can spy on, and assasinate the Lannisters.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

I don't think Aegon has any chance of getting the support of the North or the Ironborn in the near term. The Westerlands, Riverlands, Stormlands, and Crownlands are all pretty tapped out. The Reach is currently fending off the threat of the Ironborn. So I think Aegon's greatest strength is not that he will have a lot of power rallying to his cause, but that almost everyone's strength is more or less spent or they are busy with other things. Dorne and the Golden Company should be enough to take King's Landing, it would seem. But I think Euron Crow's Eye has something yet up his sleeve. He's a mad man, but I just don't believe the full extent of his plan is yet known. He's got those warlocks hanging around, he apparently killed Balon, what can he do to Aegon, his rival for Dany's hand and the Iron Throne?

What Littlefinger will do with the Vale is an interesting question. The Lords of the Vale were angry that Lysa didn't side with Robb during the War of Five Kings. This suggests that they still remember the alliance between the North and the Vale that took down the Dragon kings during Robert's rebellion. So are they going to want to enter the war now on the side of a nominal Targaryen? Littlefinger is a pretty talented manipulator so I don't put it past him to get what he wants out of them, but at the moment it seems like his position with them is tenuous enough that he has to respect their wishes.

[Independent George]

What are the odds that after the trial, Mace Tyrell annuls Margaery's marriage and offers her to Aegon? I mean, Aegon theoretically counts as both House Targaryan and Martell - that puts her halfway to 'making the eight'.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

What Littlefinger will do with the Vale is an interesting question. The Lords of the Vale were angry that Lysa didn't side with Robb during the War of Five Kings. This suggests that they still remember the alliance between the North and the Vale that took down the Dragon kings during Robert's rebellion. So are they going to want to enter the war now on the side of a nominal Targaryen? Littlefinger is a pretty talented manipulator so I don't put it past him to get what he wants out of them, but at the moment it seems like his position with them is tenuous enough that he has to respect their wishes.

Vale won't support Aegon but they still have no cause to oppose him they may remain neutral yet again.

hmm I didn't think about the crows eye,he killed Balon using Faceless men , how is he to get yet another contract?

[OnionAhaiReborn]

hmm I didn't think about the crows eye,he killed Balon using Faceless men , how is he to get yet another contract?

I wonder if he did use a Faceless man. I know that's the going theory, but I can't recall exactly why people think it was a Faceless man. Just based on the circumstances of Euron showing up and crowning himself right after Balon dies, it seems clear that it wasn't an accident, but I don't think we have enough to go on to know how he did it.

We know that Euron has Warlocks around, and we know that he has been drinking shade of the evening. We also know that since Dany hatched her dragons, magic has become more powerful in the world. It could have been a spell that killed Balon, and not a Faceless man at all. (If there is evidence for the Faceless man theory that I am forgetting please correct me, because tbh I can't remember exactly what supporting evidence that theory had). In any case, Euron is obviously playing around with dark magic. So he does not necessarily need another Faceless man to kill Aegon, or command some serious power in another way.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

The ghost of high heart had a vision about a man without a face with a crow sitting on his shoulder.Also the death was very FM like.

[The guy from the Vale]

I wonder if he did use a Faceless man. I know that's the going theory, but I can't recall exactly why people think it was a Faceless man. Just based on the circumstances of Euron showing up and crowning himself right after Balon dies, it seems clear that it wasn't an accident, but I don't think we have enough to go on to know how he did it.

We know that Euron has Warlocks around, and we know that he has been drinking shade of the evening. We also know that since Dany hatched her dragons, magic has become more powerful in the world. It could have been a spell that killed Balon, and not a Faceless man at all. (If there is evidence for the Faceless man theory that I am forgetting please correct me, because tbh I can't remember exactly what supporting evidence that theory had). In any case, Euron is obviously playing around with dark magic. So he does not necessarily need another Faceless man to kill Aegon, or command some serious power in another way.

We have the Ghost of High Heart telling us "I dreamt of a man without a face, waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung. On his shoulder perched a drowned crow with seaweed hanging from his wings."

Many (me included) take this, combined with the other accurate prophecies of the GoHH, as confirmation that Euron Crow's Eye (the drowned crow) did indeed hire a FM (a man without a face) to kill his brother Balon (waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung). Some also take Euron saying that he threw his Dragon's Egg into the sea as part of his payment to the FM for throwing Balon into the sea (so he'd be quite literal there...)

[OnionAhaiReborn]

We have the Ghost of High Heart telling us "I dreamt of a man without a face, waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung. On his shoulder perched a drowned crow with seaweed hanging from his wings."

Many (me included) take this, combined with the other accurate prophecies of the GoHH, as confirmation that Euron Crow's Eye (the drowned crow) did indeed hire a FM (a man without a face) to kill his brother Balon (waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung). Some also take Euron saying that he threw his Dragon's Egg into the sea as part of his payment to the FM for throwing Balon into the sea (so he'd be quite literal there...)

Well that does seem like pretty good evidence, I had forgotten that. But I do still think that Euron has other dark powers at his disposal that we have yet to see. So I think he might have other ways of killing Aegon without using a Faceless man.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

omg, threads can be moved.

What are the odds that after the trial, Mace Tyrell annuls Margaery's marriage and offers her to Aegon? I mean, Aegon theoretically counts as both House Targaryan and Martell - that puts her halfway to 'making the eight'.

Lol

But she hasn't really fucked anyone apart from Renly and that too is not confirmed just hinted at.

And Aegon would count as Dorne?

[The Bastard of Walton]

Aegon will come close, but fail to land the throne. I agree things look good for him, but it wont last, Stannis will never bend the knee & cersi will do anything to keep the throne. The iron islands still have a massive role to play & Doran Martell wont be fooled by this mumers Dragon... The young pretender is doomed to fail.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

Aegon will come close, but fail to land the throne. I agree things look good for him, but it wont last, Stannis will never bend the knee & cersi will do anything to keep the throne. The iron islands still have a massive role to play & Doran Martell wont be fooled by this mumers Dragon... The young pretender is doomed to fail.

Arianne is gonna marry him.Doran would have to support him no matter what. Stannis has no one to support his claim YET.He is waiting for 20,000 Sellswords to come and before that he has to beat Roose Bolton.Lol@ Cersei.Iron Islands are only challenge left really.

[Gingerly Grumkin]

I feel bad for the Martells, they have to back up Aegon for the sake of his mother.

So who should he wed? (The best card in AGOT player's hand) The obvious choice is Margaery Tyrell (practice makes perfect) but would Mace allow his daughter to wed a Martell? No one wants their grandkid to be king more then Mace, but nobody hates the Dornish more then Mace

[It Rhymes With Meek]

We have the Ghost of High Heart telling us "I dreamt of a man without a face, waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung. On his shoulder perched a drowned crow with seaweed hanging from his wings."

Many (me included) take this, combined with the other accurate prophecies of the GoHH, as confirmation that Euron Crow's Eye (the drowned crow) did indeed hire a FM (a man without a face) to kill his brother Balon (waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung). Some also take Euron saying that he threw his Dragon's Egg into the sea as part of his payment to the FM for throwing Balon into the sea (so he'd be quite literal there...)

Wow, it never occurred to me that it could have been a FM who offed Balon. Interesting theory about how he paid for it, too.

[Top Notch Balanter]

No one thinks that Stannis will support him?. He said that the hardest decision he made was choosing kin over king and he also said he never wanted to be king but that it is his duty to be king. If he finds out about Aegon and believes that he is the real deal then he may throw down his claim and declare for the real king. But then again its stannis who is iron and who may have totally consumed by the possibility that he is AA reborn

[The Bastard of Walton]

Arianne is gonna marry him.Doran would have to support him no matter what. Stannis has no one to support his claim YET.He is waiting for 20,000 Sellswords to come and before that he has to beat Roose Bolton.Lol@ Cersei.Iron Islands are only challenge left really.

I agree it looks good for him. Just think Doran wont fall for it. I can see Arianne getting wed to him though. Its a bit like Bonnie prince charlie in 1745, a rebellion led by a prince of a line of kings thought to have died out, that started good but ran out of steam & ended in total defeat.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I agree with this post and many others who think that Aegon VI will sit the iron throne (at least for a while). As of now, he is in great position:

1. His main opposition (Lannisters/Tyrells) have been weakened and are likely to be at each others throats.

2. He has an excellent Hand in Jon Connington (as long as the greyscale doesn't get to bad)

3. He has a superb army in the Golden Company that is as effective as an army three or four times its size.

4. He has already captured about 3/5 of the Stormlands (Storms End, Estermont, Tarth, Rain House, Crow's Nest and Griffin's Roost). The rest will likely soon follow.

5. As the presumed son of Rhaegar he likely has many friends in the Reach and other parts of the realm. Dorne is also likely to support him.

6. He has Varys secretly reeking havoc to his benefit and Illyrio as a backup bank

7. Storms End gives him one of the top two or three bases of operations in all of Westeros. Its impregnable and has sea access (Aurane Waters anyone?)

We know that Connington is planning to meet a Tyrell army on its way to Storms End in the field (likely by ambush). Much will be riding on this battle. The army is likely 20,000 strong and led Randyll Tarly. If I am correct, Mathis Rowan was leading the forces that were left to surround the castle. If the battle is won, Aegon will have two of Mace Tyrell's strongest bannerman under his thumb.

The victory will also be a strong signal to the rest of the realm. It will likely win Aegon the rest of the Stormlands, Dorne, many houses of the Reach, the Riverlands and most importantly start the Tyrells to rethink their present alliance. Dorne will bring about 25-30 thousand men. I think the Stormlands can still muster another 20,000 men (largely from the Marcher lords who are as yet untouched by war). Combined with his own forces, this should be more than enough the finish the Lannisters. Finally, I think Aurane Waters will bring his fleet to Aegon for an assault of King's Landing if need be. I think Aurane has been working for Varys.

Aegon 6.0 is a great bet to be sitting the iron throne by next book. Whether he stays there or not is up for debate.

[Ser_Aeron_Connel]

Stallion, couldn't those "friends in the Reach" include Tarly and/or Rowan? There may in fact be no battle between JonCon and the Reachmen.

Valonquar., wouldn't the stormlords be doing anything but securing peace if they declared for Aegon? Surely this would mean imminent war with the Lannister/Tyrell regime. I think they have a battle coming one way or the other, whether or not they like it.