NFL Free Agency - Peyton Manning Thunderdome Edition

[Jaime L]

We're less than 24 hours since Peyton Manning officially became a free agent and it's already the most interesting offseason I can recall for the NFL. Every successive nugget is fascinating:

Like that the Dolphins haven't showed the least bit of interest in Flynn because they're so gung-ho on Manning. This despite having Flynn's former coach as HC.

Or that the Broncos look to be more than just doing their due diligence. There's legit interest there.

That 12 teams have reached out to him. So far all we know for sure is Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos, Dolphins, Titans and Jets. Oh and Chiefs. But there's 4 mystery teams out there. I need to see that list.

Or that the whole thing will likely be resolved in a week. A week!

Also that interesting nugget from the previous thread about how half the league's GMs are in such a precarious "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position. If you get him and he can't play, you're fucked. But if you don't go after him out of a desire to not upset what you're currently building and he turns out to still be Peyton Manning, you're also fucked.

Just fascinating stuff.

[Kalbear]

Like that the Dolphins haven't showed the least bit of interest in Flynn because they're so gung-ho on Manning. This despite having Flynn's former coach as HC.

Huh. That's doubly interesting. Clearly manning has a better resume than Flynn, but you'd think that if Philbin thought Flynn was the real deal he'd be happy to grab him. Him completely ignoring Flynn is something of a bad sign for Flynn's chances.

I also don't think that if you get Peyton and he can't play that any team would be fucked. It might set you back a year or two, but that GM and coach would be bulletproof. Oh no, you only attracted a living legend to come to your town and your team? And you beat every other team that wanted him too? I mean, this isn't like Favre playing shitty for a few years and then being bounced, only to get a second and third chance and (eventually) showing one good season; Manning's last season was 4700 yards, 66% completion rate and a 2:1 TD int ratio. Point of fact, Peyton actually threw for more yards in 2010 than any other year in his career (though a lot of that was because he threw more TIMES than any time in his career and his YPC was down) Can you imagine the owner chiding the GM and coach for trying (and succeeding) on getting Peyton? No, I think that if you don't get him some coaches/GMs are going to be on the hot seat, but whoever wins him will be fine regardless of Peyton's success or failure.

[Prince of the North]

Well, since I'm in Vikings' Land I wonder if one of those four mystery teams could be the Vikes? It could make some sense because they are trying to get a new stadium, etc. but it could also go horribly wrong. Also, I don't know their cap situation or anything. There's also the talk that Peyton won't go to the NFC at all because his brother's in the NFC but I'm not sure I buy any of that.

[Ser Dermett Corbray]

Bills, baby. There's no denying that Manning wouldn't only be an upgrade over Fitz but also bring a whole new level of leadership to a young, improving team.

Having said that, nobody wants to play in Buffalo :P

[Greywolf2375]

Also that interesting nugget from the previous thread about how half the league's GMs are in such a precarious "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position. If you get him and he can't play, you're fucked. But if you don't go after him out of a desire to not upset what you're currently building and he turns out to still be Peyton Manning, you're also fucked.

Just fascinating stuff.

Also, a year from now when we look back at the season, what will define success for him & the team he goes to? Some of the talk shows I've heard have been saying this is purely binary - if the team he goes to does not win the SB, it is a bust. I think that is ludicrous, but what will be success for his comeback? Is his individual play going to count more than if a team that didn't make the playoffs gets in? or one that got in (Denver for example) gets farther than they did this year?

I think the only other elite QB that has come back from missing a year has been Brady - and if you look at his year to year:

<insert Brady stats from 07-09 here that I can't get to format right>

Is that the production that he should be expected to match? Less because it's his neck? More because he needs to catch up to Eli in the ring category?

[Jaime L]

No, I think that if you don't get him some coaches/GMs are going to be on the hot seat, but whoever wins him will be fine regardless of Peyton's success or failure.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with this. I think the one exception though is actually the Skins. If they somehow ended up with him and it crashed and burned because Peyton never got back to being fully healthy, the team would get just skewered in all directions due to the Redskins long history with going after aging free agents and especially with how the McNabb thing went down. It would also compound if RGIII turns out to be a star whereever he ends up.

Speaking of which, the Browns through their owner are now on the record that they like four QBs in this draft. Not just RGIII and Luck but Tannehill and Weeden. I mean, fuck, if they like Tannehill and/or Weeden, seems increasingly unlikely they trade up for RGIII, right?

Well, since I'm in Vikings' Land I wonder if one of those four mystery teams could be the Vikes? It could make some sense because they are trying to get a new stadium, etc. but it could also go horribly wrong. Also, I don't know their cap situation or anything...

Probably a good guess.

Bills, baby. There's no denying that Manning wouldn't only be an upgrade over Fitz but also bring a whole new level of leadership to a young, improving team.

Having said that, nobody wants to play in Buffalo :P

I think Manning going to the Bills would be the greatest twist ever. Could see him putting the Bills cap.

I'm taking my talents to Lake Erie.

[Mack Kilimaro]

Or that the whole thing will likely be resolved in a week. A week!

That's gotta be the most fascinating part here. Contrast to certain other sports' free agency shenanigans of the last couple of years... pretty big difference between Manning and those guys.

On the other hand, Manning's probably known for a few months that he wouldn't be back in Indy, so perhaps he's been able to spend that time winnowing down his list. He doesn't need to do the jet-set tour to get all the PowerPoint presentations. He's already turned his judging eye upon the rosters, and he knows who has been found wanting.

[Jaime L]

He's already turned his judging eye upon the rosters, and he knows who has been found wanting.

You make it sound like the rapture. Which it kinda is.

[Maithanet]

SI Article on Manning's real potential at this point in his career. Some of the points are stupid (he plays worse when away than at home? Shocking!) But really, the comparison with Joe Montana's Chiefs days and the general arc of Manning's career is I think a good one. There's reason to think that Manning will not be an elite quarterback ever again, even if he can fully recover and be very effective. A two year lease on a quarterback in the 5-10 range of NFL quarterbacks is much less exciting than Peyton Manning OMGAWESOMESAUCE! It could theoretically mean that were the Skins to sign him, they would still be only average at quarterback compared to the rest of the East. And that's still making the assumption he recovers fully, which isn't a given.

[Ser Dermett Corbray]

I think Manning going to the Bills would be the greatest twist ever. Could see him putting the Bills cap.

I'm taking my talents to Lake Erie.

Very wishful thinking. From a Bills perspective, the very best that can be hoped for is that he doesn't go to Miami. AFC East is hard enough for the Bills as it is.

[Jaime L]

SI Article on Manning's real potential at this point in his career. Some of the points are stupid (he plays worse when away than at home? Shocking!) But really, the comparison with Joe Montana's Chiefs days and the general arc of Manning's career is I think a good one. There's reason to think that Manning will not be an elite quarterback ever again, even if he can fully recover and be very effective. A two year lease on a quarterback in the 5-10 range of NFL quarterbacks is much less exciting than Peyton Manning OMGAWESOMESAUCE! It could theoretically mean that were the Skins to sign him, they would still be only average at quarterback compared to the rest of the East. And that's still making the assumption he recovers fully, which isn't a given.

The one thing I agree with is Joe Montana on the Chiefs is probably the best comparison insofar as we can make 'em. But that was 20 years ago - we're in a very different era in terms of sports science extending guys careers and allowing them to play at high level longer.

It's also bizarre to me that an article about aging star QBs doesn't make any, even passing reference to what Kurt Warner did at ages 37-38 or what Brett Favre did at 39. Both were assumed washed up years earlier whereas Peyton Manning showed no signs of decline prior this injury. Hell Rich Gannon's two best seasons were at ages 36 and 37. And Peyton is better and more important for an aging QB more cerebral than all these guys except arguably Montana.

I'm not saying he'll definitely be successful, think it's as high risk/reward as you can get, just that those type of analyses don't adequately handle the uniquess of Peyton's situation.

But no worries Maith, I'm now thinking the Skins chances of getting Manning are at best 10% so it's almost assuredly not a problem we'll even have to worry about.

[Mark Antony]

He'll end up in Miami imo. Manning throwin to Brandon Marshall>

[Sivin]

Bills, baby. There's no denying that Manning wouldn't only be an upgrade over Fitz but also bring a whole new level of leadership to a young, improving team.

Having said that, nobody wants to play in Buffalo :P

Sorry, brother. But at least you know that it won't happen. Do the Bills even have an out from Fitz's contract?

Is that the production that he should be expected to match? Less because it's his neck? More because he needs to catch up to Eli in the ring category?

I accidentally deleted too much of your post, but Peyton Manning will not play for Denver. It makes even less sense than going to Washington. Denver is a fake team. Their defense is mediocre at best, the offense is downright anemic, and (fucked up as it is) the only reason they made the playoffs was because of Tim Tebow.

I know, I know, "It was the defense!" But it really wasn't the defense. The defense looked better because the Broncos' offense was grinding the ball and even when they didn't score they kept the opposing team off the field. And that all comes down to what Tebow did. He's still the worst quarterback I've ever seen, but his shennanigans were what got the Broncos to 8-8. (And Matt Prater deserves praise as well.)

Basically what I'm getting at is that the Broncos have nothing to offer Peyton except: "Hey, you wanna come teach Tebow!"

Yeah, I pretty much agree with this. I think the one exception though is actually the Skins.

Speaking of which, the Browns through their owner are now on the record that they like four QBs in this draft. Not just RGIII and Luck but Tannehill and Weeden. I mean, fuck, if they like Tannehill and/or Weeden, seems increasingly unlikely they trade up for RGIII, right?

I think Manning going to the Bills would be the greatest twist ever. Could see him putting the Bills cap.

I'm taking my talents to Lake Erie.

I think the Browns are just posturing to see if they can get the 'Skins to lower their limits, thus getting the Rams to accept a lesser deal.

And is there enough money in Buffalo to afford Peyton? I'm not talking about cap-room, I'm asking if there's enough money, period.

You make it sound like the rapture. Which it kinda is.

I agree. Excellent post by Mack.

[wolverine]

Well, since I'm in Vikings' Land I wonder if one of those four mystery teams could be the Vikes? It could make some sense because they are trying to get a new stadium, etc. but it could also go horribly wrong. Also, I don't know their cap situation or anything. There's also the talk that Peyton won't go to the NFC at all because his brother's in the NFC but I'm not sure I buy any of that.

Weren't we told before they were done with old has beens...and then they got McNabb. Don't get me wrong I think it would be awesome to see Peyton in the purple but I think they are pretty sold on the QB they have now. Plus would Peyton have any interest in becoming a Viking? They seemed to have quite a few holes last year not just at QB. His neck is fragile and the Vikings line sucks.

[Jaime L]

I think the Browns are just posturing to see if they can get the 'Skins to lower their limits, thus getting the Rams to accept a lesser deal.

I think the Browns are just like that rich guy who doesn't realize he's rich. So they're clipping coupons and eating hamburger helper when if they wanted they could have foie gras.

And is there enough money in Buffalo to afford Peyton? I'm not talking about cap-room, I'm asking if there's enough money, period.

This made me laugh.

[Prince of the North]

Weren't we told before they were done with old has beens...and then they got McNabb. Don't get me wrong I think it would be awesome to see Peyton in the purple but I think they are pretty sold on the QB they have now. Plus would Peyton have any interest in becoming a Viking? They seemed to have quite a few holes last year not just at QB. His neck is fragile and the Vikings line sucks.

Yes, I agree with everything you're saying. I am just speculating that the Vikes could be one of the four mystery teams interested in Peyton. If it were me, I'd stick with Ponder and build around him but, of course, it's not me. Also, have the Vikes got that stadium deal ironed out yet? If not, could they be looking to make a big splash to garner some support, etc.?

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

It's also bizarre to me that an article about aging star QBs doesn't make any, even passing reference to what Kurt Warner did at ages 37-38 or what Brett Favre did at 39. Both were assumed washed up years earlier whereas Peyton Manning showed no signs of decline prior this injury. Hell Rich Gannon's two best seasons were at ages 36 and 37. And Peyton is better and more important for an aging QB more cerebral than all these guys except arguably Montana.

Except none of those guys was coming off an injury of this magnitude. Montana had already come back and played before he went to KC.

I don't buy into the spin that any GM who doesn't sign this guy is on the hot seat given the circumstances. There is more risk here than I think you guys are accounting for. Sure, the guy is going to sell tickets, but if he makes an early exit are those ticket sales going to equal the upfront money he's going to demand? If he works out well, then damn the torpedoes, but short of that, I'd be putting this guy under the microscope.

[DanteGabriel]

I also don't think that if you get Peyton and he can't play that any team would be fucked. It might set you back a year or two, but that GM and coach would be bulletproof.

I think you are underestimating the ability of Very Rich People to revise history to scapegoat and fuck people over when it suits their fancy.

[Kalbear]

He's already stated that he is fine not getting a ton of upfront money; no one will be more disappointed by his bad performance than him. I think the only difference in his contract is the ceiling and at that point if he does that well you don't care you're paying the man because you just won a Super Bowl.

Also, Montana, Favre and Warner all had had fairly poor years prior to leaving. Favre had a bad year in his first season away, too. I realize the injury is a risk, but at the same time manning had some of the best years of his career in the last 3. Put it in perspective - if he does 80% of 2010 we are still talking almost 4000 yards and 30 tds.

[Maithanet]

Also, Montana, Favre and Warner all had had fairly poor years prior to leaving. Favre had a bad year in his first season away, too. I realize the injury is a risk, but at the same time manning had some of the best years of his career in the last 3. Put it in perspective - if he does 80% of 2010 we are still talking almost 4000 yards and 30 tds.

It's true, but 3900 yards and 30 touchdowns would be 11th in yardage ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick and 6th in touchdowns, ahead of Matt Ryan. Depending on the number of attempts, he might not even be a top 8 quarterback. And again that's assuming that he prettymuch picks up where he left off in his sunsetting career, without any difficulties with new personnel, system or lingering injury.