[TWoW Spoilers] Tyrion I

[History of Westeros]

Sansa's POV during her wedding to Tyrion:

“Your eyes give the lie to your tongue.” Ser Garlan turned her, drew her close to his side. “My lady, I have seen how you look at my brother. Loras is valiant and handsome, and we all love him dearly... but your Imp will make a better husband. He is a bigger man than he seems, I think.”

[ReekGreyjoy]

Overall, the evidence for Tyrion being Aerys' son is scant and neglibible compared to that noting him as Tywin's son. However, that does not mean we can assume the King's Guard controlled the King enough to keep him from Joanna (and adding that to the side saying Tyrion is Tywin's son). For starters, don't you think a bigger deal would be stopping Aerys from killing Lord Rickard Stark for nothing?

Also, I don't know much about the old Targaryens, but it seems like based partly on them, the restriction of Tyrion from Casterly Rock based on his deformity is unfounded. Maelys the Monstrous ruled as a freak, Willas Tyrell rules as a cripple, Bran Stark ruled as a cripple, and people were seriously considering Erik too-fat-to-rise-from-his-chair to rule the Ironborn. Now, given that Tywin heaps scorn upon Tyrion throughout his life and clearly doesn't favor him, the appointment of Tyrion to Casterly Rock might be tough to swallow for the leige lords, but it would be possible nonetheless, and a better option than forcing the Kingslayer to break his vows. Cersei is clearly a bad ruler and Tyrion clearly a decent one, so I don't see any reason for Tywin to disinherit him. A lot of people in Westeros would, though. So it's not evidence for or against Tyrion being a Targaryen either way you look at it.

As for the actual Tyrion spoiler -- I'd say anything more than a glorified counselor position for the person in power in Meereen would be a farce. He's clumsy and has short, twisted legs. He can't ride a dragon. He could, however, help someone tame one based on his knowledge of dragons. Someone like Victarion or even Brown Ben Plumm? Or just Dany.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Overall, the evidence for Tyrion being Aerys' son is scant and neglibible compared to that noting him as Tywin's son. However, that does not mean we can assume the King's Guard controlled the King enough to keep him from Joanna (and adding that to the side saying Tyrion is Tywin's son). For starters, don't you think a bigger deal would be stopping Aerys from killing Lord Rickard Stark for nothing?

Also, I don't know much about the old Targaryens, but it seems like based partly on them, the restriction of Tyrion from Casterly Rock based on his deformity is unfounded. Maelys the Monstrous ruled as a freak, Willas Tyrell rules as a cripple, Bran Stark ruled as a cripple, and people were seriously considering Erik too-fat-to-rise-from-his-chair to rule the Ironborn. Now, given that Tywin heaps scorn upon Tyrion throughout his life and clearly doesn't favor him, the appointment of Tyrion to Casterly Rock might be tough to swallow for the leige lords, but it would be possible nonetheless, and a better option than forcing the Kingslayer to break his vows. Cersei is clearly a bad ruler and Tyrion clearly a decent one, so I don't see any reason for Tywin to disinherit him. A lot of people in Westeros would, though. So it's not evidence for or against Tyrion being a Targaryen either way you look at it.

As for the actual Tyrion spoiler -- I'd say anything more than a glorified counselor position for the person in power in Meereen would be a farce. He's clumsy and has short, twisted legs. He can't ride a dragon. He could, however, help someone tame one based on his knowledge of dragons. Someone like Victarion or even Brown Ben Plumm? Or just Dany.

1. Well, Aerys did not kill Lord Rickard and Brandon for nothing. Brandon stormed into KL and demanded Rhaegar's head. Everyone at the time was under the assumption that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna. We all know that the whole affair was likely a misunderstanding, but they did not.

It is the way Aerys executed Lord Rickard and Brandon that was atrocious. They deserved trial by battle at the least. Calling for the death of the Crown Prince is technically treason, cause or no cause. The KG were duty bound to follow the king's command in this. Furthermore, its highly unlikely that Aerys was ever alone with Joanna to commit this alleged rape.

2. Maelys the Monstrous ruled the Golden Company, nothing more. From all accounts he was still a capable warrior. Yes, Willas is a cripple, but he became so in joust. Other than that he is an otherwise whole man. Bran was shown courtesy by the visiting northern bannerman, but none of them respected him or considered him the long-term heir. He could see the contempt in all of their eyes. All of these examples are unique in their conditions and circumstances, just as Tyrion's condition and circumstances are unique to him.

The main point is that none of them had Tywin for a father. None of them killed their mothers coming into the world. All that matter is what Tywin thought of Tyrion. Its clear he did not find him fit to be his heir. Tywin never gave up hope of Jaime being released from the KG. Ser Kevan made that clear to Cersei. Tywin told Jaime that he wanted to make use of Cersei's and Joffery's changing of the rules to release Jaime from his vow. You may view Tyrion as capable, but Tywin and the rest of the realm did not. No wife would have him, except Tysha, and no one would follow him absent his name and family wealth.

Could Tyrion have overcome these obstacles over time....maybe. But the only opinion on the subject was Tywin's. This fits perfectly within in the stories narrative and serves to preclude any Targaryen heritage.

[History of Westeros]

Furthermore, its highly unlikely that Aerys was ever alone with Joanna to commit this alleged rape.

Actually it wouldn't be that hard for them to be alone, or "alone except for a Kingsguard knight or two". Joanna lived at court for quite a while while she was lady-in-waiting for Rhaella.

Obviously this proves nothing, but the opportunity was there. There would've been plenty of times that Tywin would be away from the Red Keep while Joanna and Aerys were not.

As to Brandon Stark, you make a good point that he could easily be judged guilty of treason based on his death threats, but Rickard made no such threat, nor did Elbert Arryn (Jon Arryn's heir, also executed) and the other noble squires, all of whose deaths made Aerys an enemy of their house. The argument exists that even Elbert was a traitor because he stood by Brandon during the death threats. But still the problem of Rickard remains. He was guilty of nothing whatsoever and everyone knew it.

Either way, the point you responded to was that the KG is supposed to protect the King from himself, and killing Rickard and co. like that is at least somewhat similar to raping Joanna in terms of "likelihood to cause a war i.e. the king putting himself in danger".

Yet one of the greatest KG of all time, if not the greatest, did nothing (apparently).

I'm not a huge fan of the J/C are half-Targs theory, but I do think it is possible.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Actually it wouldn't be that hard for them to be alone, or "alone except for a Kingsguard knight or two". Joanna lived at court for quite a while while she was lady-in-waiting for Elia.

Obviously this proves nothing, but the opportunity was there. There would've been plenty of times that Tywin would be away from the Red Keep while Joanna and Aerys were not.

As to Brandon Stark, you make a good point that he could easily be judged guilty of treason based on his death threats, but Rickard made no such threat, nor did Elbert Arryn (Jon Arryn's heir, also executed) and the other noble squires, all of whose deaths made Aerys an enemy of their house. The argument exists that even Elbert was a traitor because he stood by Brandon during the death threats. But still the problem of Rickard remains. He was guilty of nothing whatsoever and everyone knew it.

Either way, the point you responded to was that the KG is supposed to protect the King from himself, and killing Rickard and co. like that is at least somewhat similar to raping Joanna in terms of "likelihood to cause a war i.e. the king putting himself in danger".

Yet one of the greatest KG of all time, if not the greatest, did nothing (apparently).

I'm not a huge fan of the J/C are half-Targs theory, but I do think it is possible.

1. My concern is Joanna's post-lady-in-waiting days. Cersei's POV in AFFC makes it clear that Joanna stayed at Casterly Rock and Lord Tywin came home for conjugal visits when time permitted. This makes perfect sense, considering the reign of Aerys and Tywin was a golden age until Duskendale.

During Joanna's time as Lady Lannister, it is just highly unlikely that she was ever in the company of Aerys.

2. Lord Rickard was summoned to answer for his son's treason, along with the father's of the other young nobles. Right or wrong, Aerys found them guilty and executed them. It was not smart, but it was his right as the absolute sovereign of the realm. Brandon and his company did arrive to challenge Rhaegar, and paid for it with their lives.

This is quite different from preventing the monarch from raping the wife of the most powerful lord in Westeros. The circumstances are quite different.

Fan of the theory or not, nothing adds up to make it a possibility.

[History of Westeros]

2. Lord Rickard was summoned to answer for his son's treason, along with the father's of the other young nobles. Right or wrong, Aerys found them guilty and executed them. It was not smart, but it was his right as the absolute sovereign of the realm. Brandon and his company did arrive to challenge Rhaegar, and paid for it with their lives.

This is quite different from preventing the monarch from raping the wife of the most powerful lord in Westeros. The circumstances are quite different.

The circumstances don't really matter. What matters is the result, which was obvious and predictable. An already crazy and paranoid Aerys kills a bunch of important people = war breaks out.

Hardly even matters if it was justified: a la Robb executing Rickard Karstark. Karstark was clearly guilty but Robb's execution was obviously going to make enemies and deserters out of the vast majority of the Karstark men. That was also obvious and predictable, I'm sure we agree.

The point is that Aerys was doing something that was highly likely to cause a war and no KG seemingly even lifted a finger. We agree that a rape of Joanna would cause a similar reaction of war (if Tywin knew about it).

I do agree that it's pretty unlikely that Aerys had access to Joanna after the wedding. It would be helpful to know how long after their marriage it was that J/C were born. That alone might be enough to kill this theory.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

The circumstances don't really matter. What matters is the result, which was obvious and predictable. An already crazy and paranoid Aerys kills a bunch of important people = war breaks out.

Hardly even matters if it was justified: a la Robb executing Rickard Karstark. Karstark was clearly guilty but Robb's execution was obviously going to make enemies and deserters out of the vast majority of the Karstark men. That was also obvious and predictable, I'm sure we agree.

The point is that Aerys was doing something that was highly likely to cause a war and no KG seemingly even lifted a finger. We agree that a rape of Joanna would cause a similar reaction of war (if Tywin knew about it).

I do agree that it's pretty unlikely that Aerys had access to Joanna after the wedding. It would be helpful to know how long after their marriage it was that J/C were born. That alone might be enough to kill this theory.

1. Not necessarily. After the executions, Aerys put Jon Arryn in a box by demanding the heads of Ned and Robert. Had he not done so, Jon may not have called his banners and started the rebellion. Diplomacy may have still prevailed.

Thats where the circumstances come in. Like it or not, Aerys judged and executed his captives legally, except for Rickard, who should have gotton at trial by battle.

2. Tywin became Hand at age 20, so this occurred in 264 AL. Jaime and Cersei were born in 266 AL, two years later.

In AFFC, Cersei lets us know that Lord Tytos died when she was one year old (267 AL). She goes on to tell us that Lord Tywin was away in King's Landing serving Aerys. She further states that Lord Tywin was often away in King's Landing when she and Jaime were young. Upon marriage, as I stated, Lady Joanna stayed exclusively at the Rock.

I cannot kill a theory you choose to believe. I can only point out that it really makes no sense given all of the textual evidence.

[History of Westeros]

Thats where the circumstances come in. Like it or not, Aerys judged and executed his captives legally, except for Rickard, who should have gotton at trial by battle.

The "except for Rickard" part is the whole point. If the KG were big on stopping Aerys from doing stupid self-harmful things, this is clearly a good example. Yes, it might not have led to war, but Tywin finding out that Aerys raped his wife isn't 100% certain to lead to war either. It's merely quite likely.

So neither of these cases were automatic war. Both are actions that could easily lead to violent reprisal thus they both fall into the category of Aerys putting himself in danger.

Your original claim is that the KG would've stopped Aerys from raping Joanna. However this remains uncertain for several reasons. One, they may not have been able to stop him. If he gets alone with Joanna somehow, the KG knight might have to physically remove Aerys from Joanna in order to stop it from happening. That seems pretty unlikely. Two, the Rickard example is at least decent evidence that the KG do not, by default, physically stop the King from doing what he wants. Words of protest may have been uttered, but grabbing the King and pulling him off of someone? It's possible, but I really don't think we can assume it would go down like that.

2. Tywin became Hand at age 20, so this occurred in 264 AL. Jaime and Cersei were born in 266 AL, two years later.

Here are some musings, a lot of this is just me rattling off the details, to make sure everything is straight.

2 years is an assumption. It can easily be much shorter. Tywin was named hand at age 20 and born in 244. If Tywin was born in say, "November" (idk the real name of the 11th month or equivalent) of 244, and named Hand in say, September of 265, he'd still be 20. So maybe Tywin didn't turn 21 until ~November of 265. So we're actually talking about a possible difference of as little as a month from Tywin being named Hand to the birth of J/C. All that said, it doesn't necessarily matter except as a point of interest.

We know for certain Jaime and Cersei were born after Tywin was named Hand, but we do not know for certain that they were *conceived* before he was Hand. Another interesting possibility is that Tywin and Joanna were married much earlier than any of this, though it's unlikely to be much earlier because they were both fairly young.

As for the locations, you've convinced me that an encounter with Joanna and Aerys at court in KL is nearly impossible due to timing. An encounter at Casterly Rock in general is much less likely than one at court by a pretty sizable margin, I agree with that as well.

You've done a very good job at pointing to the difficulties with the timelines, but this model is possible:

Starting point: Joanna and Tywin are married at some prior point, it is now mid/late 265.

Option A: Aerys goes west to make Tywin Hand. Aerys rapes Joanna somehow and Joanna doesn't say anything, out of shame or fear of what Tywin will do. Castamere and Tarbeck Hall are fresh on everyone's mind, and she doesn't want war. Jaime/Cersei born ~9 months later, in 266. Extremely unlikely but the timeline does fit, and no one is out of character. Not buying it myself but I can't call it impossible.

Option B: Tywin is summoned to court to be made Hand and is told to bring his wife, or that she insists on coming. If it were up to him, he'd recall Aerys' gropings/comments and keep her away. But we know Joanna got her way in general, so this is no stretch. Aerys rapes her while at court, and she tells nobody. Perhaps she immediately tells Tywin that she is now ready to return to CR, preventing Tywin from noticing that his loving wife is suddenly uninterested in sex. Tywin stays at court, soon receiving a raven from his wife that she's pregnant. Jaime and Cersei born 9 months later, in early/mid 266.

Side notes: It's actually possible Tywin was named Hand during the same trip west Aerys made for the wedding. (Aerys probably hoped Tywin would bring Joanna to court, hah. We can assume he had lusted for her since the days that Joanna was constantly with his sister/betrothed).

There is also the remote chance that Tywin and Joanna were married at court. Pretty darn unlikely but I couldn't find any proof of where the wedding was actually held so a tiny chance exists I suppose.

The other possibility, however remote, is that Joanna actually wanted to sleep with Aerys. I think it unlikely due to the notion that she and Tywin were in love. But do we actually know this? Tywin was in love with her for certain, but it occurs to me that we don't necessarily know that she felt as strongly.

[Colonel Green]

Recall Jamie's words to Ser Meryn Trant and the rest of the King's Guard for following Joffery's orders to beat Sansa Stark. Part of their job is protect the king from himself.

Joffrey is a child.

There is absolutely no evidence that he Kingsguard has ever physically stopped an adult king from doing something that he wanted to do. Indeed, their whole ethos suggests the exact opposite. They exist to follow the king's commands.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

The "except for Rickard" part is the whole point. If the KG were big on stopping Aerys from doing stupid self-harmful things, this is clearly a good example. Yes, it might not have led to war, but Tywin finding out that Aerys raped his wife isn't 100% certain to lead to war either. It's merely quite likely.

So neither of these cases were automatic war. Both are actions that could easily lead to violent reprisal thus they both fall into the category of Aerys putting himself in danger.

Your original claim is that the KG would've stopped Aerys from raping Joanna. However this remains uncertain for several reasons. One, they may not have been able to stop him. If he gets alone with Joanna somehow, the KG knight might have to physically remove Aerys from Joanna in order to stop it from happening. That seems pretty unlikely. Two, the Rickard example is at least decent evidence that the KG do not, by default, physically stop the King from doing what he wants. Words of protest may have been uttered, but grabbing the King and pulling him off of someone? It's possible, but I really don't think we can assume it would go down like that.

Here are some musings, a lot of this is just me rattling off the details, to make sure everything is straight.

2 years is an assumption. It can easily be much shorter. Tywin was named hand at age 20 and born in 244. If Tywin was born in say, "November" (idk the real name of the 11th month or equivalent) of 244, and named Hand in say, September of 265, he'd still be 20. So maybe Tywin didn't turn 21 until ~November of 265. So we're actually talking about a possible difference of as little as a month from Tywin being named Hand to the birth of J/C. All that said, it doesn't necessarily matter except as a point of interest.

We know for certain Jaime and Cersei were born after Tywin was named Hand, but we do not know for certain that they were *conceived* before he was Hand. Another interesting possibility is that Tywin and Joanna were married much earlier than any of this, though it's unlikely to be much earlier because they were both fairly young.

As for the locations, you've convinced me that an encounter with Joanna and Aerys at court in KL is nearly impossible due to timing. An encounter at Casterly Rock in general is much less likely than one at court by a pretty sizable margin, I agree with that as well.

You've done a very good job at pointing to the difficulties with the timelines, but this model is possible:

Starting point: Joanna and Tywin are married at some prior point, it is now mid/late 265.

Option A: Aerys goes west to make Tywin Hand. Aerys rapes Joanna somehow and Joanna doesn't say anything, out of shame or fear of what Tywin will do. Castamere and Tarbeck Hall are fresh on everyone's mind, and she doesn't want war. Jaime/Cersei born ~9 months later, in 266. Extremely unlikely but the timeline does fit, and no one is out of character. Not buying it myself but I can't call it impossible.

Option B: Tywin is summoned to court to be made Hand and is told to bring his wife, or that she insists on coming. If it were up to him, he'd recall Aerys' gropings/comments and keep her away. But we know Joanna got her way in general, so this is no stretch. Aerys rapes her while at court, and she tells nobody. Perhaps she immediately tells Tywin that she is now ready to return to CR, preventing Tywin from noticing that his loving wife is suddenly uninterested in sex. Tywin stays at court, soon receiving a raven from his wife that she's pregnant. Jaime and Cersei born 9 months later, in early/mid 266.

Side notes: It's actually possible Tywin was named Hand during the same trip west Aerys made for the wedding. (Aerys probably hoped Tywin would bring Joanna to court, hah. We can assume he had lusted for her since the days that Joanna was constantly with his sister/betrothed).

There is also the remote chance that Tywin and Joanna were married at court. Pretty darn unlikely but I couldn't find any proof of where the wedding was actually held so a tiny chance exists I suppose.

We can go round and round with this particular point, but I'll just stop it here so as not to bog down this thread. I have made my case using the text and actual data that is available to us. I do not think that Joanna Lannister was raped by Aerys Targaryen. I think that all of Tywin Lannister's children are biologically his and his alone. I simply think there is no chance this theory being accurate.

You have dropped several hypotheticals, which I could continue to answer, yet it would only lead to more hypotheticals on your part. If you believe in this theory I cannot dissuade you from it. The text and information simply do not support any of it.

As to the location of the wedding, I'm assuming it was at Casterly Rock. It does not make sense to be anywhere else, but I suppose it could have been in King's Landing as a gift from Aerys. Either way, Ser Barristan told us of liberties (groping) and we know that the guest disrobe the bride and then carry the couple to their marriage beds.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Joffrey is a child.

There is absolutely no evidence that he Kingsguard has ever physically stopped an adult king from doing something that he wanted to do. Indeed, their whole ethos suggests the exact opposite. They exist to follow the king's commands.

Well Jaime Lannsiter physically stopped Aerys from burning down King's Landing.

Yes, Joffery was a child, but he was served by an inferior KG. I stand by my statement that the KG of Aerys would not have stood by and watched him rape the the wife of the most powerful lord in the realm.

Aerys was at this time lucid, charming, well liked by his people and showed great promise. Madness did not take him until after Duskendale. He lusted after Joanna, but he was not stupid enough to do what you are suggesting.

[Colonel Green]

Well Jaime Lannsiter physically stopped Aerys from burning down King's Landing.

By killing him, which he wasn't supposed to do. That's the point of his character conflict: he broke his oath.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

By killing him, which he wasn't supposed to do. That's the point of his character conflict: he broke his oath.

Well, your claim was that there was no evidence of a KG physically preventing an adult king from acting as he wanted. There you go. Ser Criston Cole disobeyed his king and crowned the son of Viserys I instead of his daughter.

[Colonel Green]

Well, your claim was that there was no evidence of a KG physically preventing an adult king from acting as he wanted. There you go. Ser Criston Cole disobeyed his king and crowned the son of Viserys I instead of his daughter.

Which is also something he wasn't supposed to do. You're positing that the Kingsguard can constrain the king's actions whilst acting within the scope of their duties.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Which is also something he wasn't supposed to do. You're positing that the Kingsguard can constrain the king's actions whilst acting within the scope of their duties.

Yes, that is my assertion....but only in certain cases. The KG of Aerys was the last true KG. It was made up of knights of the highest quality. I think that if a situation had occurred where a drunken Aerys had stumbled upon an unguarded Joanna, the KG would have acted to prevent a hypothetical rape. I stand by that.

We could go on and on with this, so I will stop it here. I stand by my statements one and all. Its only a hypothetical. I'm quite certain that Aerys never raped Joanna, nor is he the biological father of any of Tywin's children. If you choose to believe otherwise, I cannot dissuade you.

[History of Westeros]

This isn't something that has to be "either you believe it or you don't". I think a lot of us are having fun entertaining the idea while realizing that it is either difficult or impossible to entirely rule out.

Personally I wouldn't bet on J/C being Aerys at even odds, but if someone gave me 4-1 odds, I would strongly consider it. If someone said they'd give me 100 bucks vs 10 that J/C are Aerys' kids, I'd snap up that bet.

[Last Stark]

There is just no way that Lady Johana would betray Tywin from what we know of her and there is no way Tywin would leave his wife alone with Aerys. There just would be no time or opportunity for this to have happened.

In ADWD Barriston says Aerys took liberties with the Lady Joanne

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

In ADWD Barriston says Aerys took liberties with the Lady Joanne

Yes, during the disrobing ceremony when all of the wedding guests gather round, undress the bride, and then carry the bride and groom away to their marriage bed, just like at every wedding ceremony in Westeros.

What kind of liberties would the king take while helping to disrobe the bride along with a room full of people? Rape....surely not. Excess groping of the bride was what took place and nothing more.

[omegadan]

So... no links as yet to the chapter from Tyrion's POV?

[virgo79]

This is interesting indeed. Ser Barristan knows that Dany cannot be hindered by foolish/childish trysts as he has seen the great harm that can come of it. He knows she needs a great lord by her side, so he is certainly against Daario and Jorah and more likely to support Vic. Vic can do for Daario and Jorah with ease, and Barry will likely facilitate such an outcome.

I fully expect Dany to fall for Vic (Drogo 2.0) as he is her type. Vic will bring the iron fleet (10,000 men), sea power, transportation back to Westeros and the rest of the iron born once Euron has been dealt with.

Oh, God, I hope not. Vicky's not my idea of great lord material -- he's a psychopath who beat his own wife to death, and he's dumber than soup. I've actually been wondering what the odds are of him flinging his "I'm here to claim the most beautiful woman in the world" schtick at Dany and getting crispy-crittered and eaten for his trouble. Then Dany can take his ships, which are the most appealing thing about him. (I don't believe it'll happen that way, but damn, would it be sweet.)

Ser Barristan ultimately doesn't have any say in who Dany chooses to have at her side or in her bed. He can advise her, but I think he's far too intelligent to think that meddling in her choice of partners, or doing harm to someone she cares about, in Daario's case, would be wise. Also, while I adore Barristan, he sees Dany as his "bright shining child queen," and has a personal reason for wanting her on the throne -- he's got his own redemption and meaning tied up in seeing her become the perfect ruler. But Dany is her own person, and I actually suspect that after the events of ADwD, she's going to decide she's more khaleesi than queen -- I personally feel that she's coming to the conclusion that she'll be happier on the back of a dragon, fighting her battles her way, than sitting on a throne making compromises and playing games she has no patience for.