R+L=J v.23

[Ygrain]

I've personnally never thought it was a dead certainty that Robert would flip out if he knew the truth of Jon's parentage. He afterall didn't order the killing of Aegon and Rhaenys - and only ordered Dany's death years later when he was gone to ruin & had less illusions about being a hero figure. Ned himself may not have thought that Robert would insist on killing Jon - nor even Lyanna if she was thinking about it rationally. But she was dying, and the one thought on her mind was 'protect my child' so a promise of secrecy isn't suprising.

Thing is, Tywin was right in his assessment that surviving Targ heirs are a threat to the Baratheon dynasty, and an heir of Rhaegar doubly so. Robert MIGHT not find it in himself to personally order a babe killed but Ned already knows that he has no qualms about someone else doing the dirty job. So, the question is not whether it is 100% sure that Robert would kill the child, but whether Ned and Lyanna can be 100% sure that he wouldn't - and the answer to this question is very definitely NO. And, even if they could be sure that Robert himself would let the child live, there is Tywin and countless other cronies who would gladly kill a hundred babies to get a boon with the king.

Furthermore, what kind of life would a Targ have under Robert's rule? One of permanent confinement and restriction, to prevent any access to power or becoming someone else's pawn; not the kind of life you would want for your child.

Finally, withholding truth from your king and harbouring a heir of the rival dynasty definitely falls into the category of treason, which might turn out very bad for the whole House Stark.

All in all, perfect secrecy is a must.

[Buried Treasure]

Thing is, Tywin was right in his assessment that surviving Targ heirs are a threat to the Baratheon dynasty, and an heir of Rhaegar doubly so. Robert MIGHT not find it in himself to personally order a babe killed but Ned already knows that he has no qualms about someone else doing the dirty job.

Yeah he was pretty relieved that the threat of the Targaryen children was gone. But in that situation is was already a done deal and there was no way he could have undone it if he had wanted to. So we do not know for certain if Robert would have rejected a proposal for the kids to be taken as wards by Jon Arry / Ned (who he could trust to watch them well) then sent to the Wall / into the Faith once grown.

So, the question is not whether it is 100% sure that Robert would kill the child, but whether Ned and Lyanna can be 100% sure that he wouldn't - and the answer to this question is very definitely NO. And, even if they could be sure that Robert himself would let the child live, there is Tywin and countless other cronies who would gladly kill a hundred babies to get a boon with the king.

I totally agree that they could not expect to be 100% certain a Targaryen child to be safe with Robert. What I have never been convinced of is the view that we can be 100% certain a Targaryen child would be murdered by Robert. That's the view that some posters on this forum seem to have of Robert, but it is not necessary to have that view to believe R+l=J.

I do actually agree with the point that Jon's parentage was kept a secret to protect him from Robert's anger. But I see it more as not taking the risk of telling the truth (especially from Lyanna's point of view as she is not going to be around to protect her child in person) than about it being a dead certainty that Robert is enough of a monster to murder an infant babe.

[Serie]

ok guys, sorry to interrupt but since I mentioned that survey a few pages back maybe you're still interested...

good old gods its done....

[Alia of the knife]

An interesting idea, with the nuptials. We don't know when Lyanna's wedding was supposed to be, and though I don't think there would be a double ceremony (no mention of it anywhere, not even Cat's PoV, who would probably reminiscence on the similarity), I supposed it would take place quite soon after Brandon's.

I was wondering... from Bran's PoV, we know that the Isle of Faces is not regularly visited (Meera's account on how HR went there on his way to Harrenhall and met the green men), but would it be possible that Lyanna did go there? She was a Northerner, raised in the belief of Old Gods - wouldn't she want to visit such a sacred place? With her wolf blood, she definitely wouldn't be deterred by some stories or "trespassing forbidden" signs. This might turn out an important factor - if there was really the prophecy involved in her relationship with Rhaegar, the Isle of Faces could have been a source of some important information that persuaded her to take part, and it would not be such a stretch to assume that Rhaegar may have visited, as well. A more practical point would be that supposedly religious trips would provide a nice cover-up for secret meetings with Rhaegar, the Sansa-Dontos style.

That is a good point.

On the timing of her kidnapping, I had just speculated that her impending marriage was the event that drove Rhaegar.

If it had been soley prophesy-driven, why would there need to be such a sense of urgency in getting the "third head so soon after Aegon?"

Really, Rhaegar could have done that when Aegon was say, five years old for example, because time was not going to change Elias condition, but two major events coencided for Rhaegar in terms of the timing:

1). Elia was declared barren, as the Maesters told Rhaegar "she would bare no more children."

2). His Lady love, and the one he wanted to bare his child/children was about to get married..

On the double ceremony concept, it could be that Cat didn't think of it, because there was just no point in dwelling on such things anymore.

But, I do think Lyanna was running out of time.

Another good point you mentioned, and this is something that went back to Poster TZE's fabulous take on ASoIaF, is that the irony of Rhaegar potentially marrying Lyanna in the Old Ways, before the Old gods would make Jon the rightful King in the North even before Neds sons, because Ned married Caitlyn under the Seven, therefore Jons conception would have the blessing and annointing of the Old gods, and considered the only legitimate son of the Starks to be King in the North.

Being half Targaryen, and found legitimate, (since the Priests of the Seven would be more likely to relax their rules given it was Rhaegar Targaryen), would potentially get Jon the Iron Throne, but being half Targaryen would mean nothing to the North and the Old ways in consideration for King in the North.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I totally agree that they could not expect to be 100% certain a Targaryen child to be safe with Robert. What I have never been convinced of is the view that we can be 100% certain a Targaryen child would be murdered by Robert. That's the view that some posters on this forum seem to have of Robert, but it is not necessary to have that view to believe R+l=J.

"I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." — Robert on the night Aegon and Rhaenys were murdered, when Ned protested what had been done to them.

"I will kill every Targaryen I can get my hands on, until they are as dead as their dragons, and then I will piss on their graves." — Robert 14 years later talking to Ned on the Kingsroad.

[Ygrain]

@ Alia of the knife:

Not saying the prophecy was the only factor, most probably, more than just one thing was at work there. One of the counterarguments for Lyanna going of her own volition was the family loyalty and honour that would not allow her to break the marriage contract and elope with a married man. Personally, I think that a girl in love with a prince charming wouldn't give a damn about any of these, but if she was in love AND had a mystical experience that would confirm her choice of partner... getting rid of an unwanted betrothed would be just a cherry on the cake.

"I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." — Robert on the night Aegon and Rhaenys were murdered, when Ned protested what had been done to them.

"I will kill every Targaryen I can get my hands on, until they are as dead as their dragons, and then I will piss on their graves." — Robert 14 years later talking to Ned on the Kingsroad.

Good that you reminded us of the second instant - I remembered Dany recalling how she and Viserys often had to run from assassins sent by Robert, so it wasn't like he decided to send one only after he learned about her marriage to Drogo, he just decided to get the job finally done and send professionals instead of amateurs. The fact that he was sorry for it on his deathbed would do Dany fat good, had the attempt be successful. Similarly, if he ordered Jon killed, he would probably be sorry some time later - though, he would probably convince himself that it was perfectly OK.

[Dragonfish]

Good that you reminded us of the second instant - I remembered Dany recalling how she and Viserys often had to run from assassins sent by Robert, so it wasn't like he decided to send one only after he learned about her marriage to Drogo, he just decided to get the job finally done and send professionals instead of amateurs. The fact that he was sorry for it on his deathbed would do Dany fat good, had the attempt be successful. Similarly, if he ordered Jon killed, he would probably be sorry some time later - though, he would probably convince himself that it was perfectly OK.

Actually, Robert never sent any assassins after Viserys and Dany. That was just an assumption made by the paranoid Viserys, and passed on to Dany. We know this because Robert tells Ned early in AGOT that Jon Arryn convinced him not to send anyone after them.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Good that you reminded us of the second instant - I remembered Dany recalling how she and Viserys often had to run from assassins sent by Robert, so it wasn't like he decided to send one only after he learned about her marriage to Drogo, he just decided to get the job finally done and send professionals instead of amateurs. The fact that he was sorry for it on his deathbed would do Dany fat good, had the attempt be successful. Similarly, if he ordered Jon killed, he would probably be sorry some time later - though, he would probably convince himself that it was perfectly OK.

Yeah, Dragonfish is right. Robert never sent anyone after them. Viserys was just a paranoid nutcase who passed that paranoia on to his idiot sister.

[Ygrain]

Actually, Robert never sent any assassins after Viserys and Dany. That was just an assumption made by the paranoid Viserys, and passed on to Dany. We know this because Robert tells Ned early in AGOT that Jon Arryn convinced him not to send anyone after them.

Dammit, I totally missed this! Damned be the person who borrowed my AGOT and never returned it :devil: - Ah, the unreliable narrator.

But he wanted to, hmm?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

But he wanted to, hmm?

He wanted to, yes, but Arryn talked him out of it. So Viserys and Dany's victim complex is just a load of nonsense.

[Serie]

He wanted to, yes, but Arryn talked him out of it. So Viserys and Dany's victim complex is just a load of nonsense.

in their defence, they were kids back then, and kids are easily scared. Plus are you certain that Illyrio and Ser Willem Darry had nothing to do with this "complex"?

[Lykos]

I think Viserys inherited his father´s paranoia, though it wasn´t completely unfounded. And I don´t think there was direct contact with Varys as long as Willem Darry lived, otherwise the very careful Doran Martell wouldn´t have arranged the marriage pact.

spelling

[Buried Treasure]

The Robert who ordered the death of Dany was a drunkard and a failure, who has been a crappy king in a crappy marriage for 14 years. He wasn't the same man that took the throne and when younger may not have made the same choices. The young Robert who saw himself as a hero who fought against a tyrant may not have made the choice to order the death of a babe.

The fact that he didn't mourn the deaths of Aegon and Rhaenys doesn't mean he would have ordered them killed. He refused to look at the bodies because he was ashamed of what was done in his name. Looking away was the start of his moral decline and possibly that weakness was the seed for his later bitterness.

If Lyanna hadn't made Ned swear to secrecy and Robert had learned of Jon then there is reason to think he wouldn't have gone through with murdering him. Robert would have been angry, but he could have gotten over that. The child was Ned's nephew & killing Jon would lose Robert his best friend and forced one of generals to oppose him (killing a lords innocent relatives is not something kings can do lightly, as Robert himself knew well). Had Lyanna lived it's even more unlikely Robert would have ordered Jon's death, he would have had to order her (the woman he thought he loved) child's death to her face.

But Lyanna was dying, and no parent wants to leave their without their personal protection. So she wanted secrecy, because that is the greatest guarantee of safety.

[Jorge Danger]

You might argue that if Jon was the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna, that could put him in even more danger if Robert were to find out. Because not only would the child be a Targaryen, and thus a threat to Robert's reign, but he would also be a living reminder of what he believes to be the defilement of the woman he loved more than anything by the man he hated more than anything. Without Lyanna to stay his hand, and with a rift already opened between him and Ned, it's difficult to say for certain whether or not Robert could have been merciful, especially with some of the sycophants he had around him whispering in his ear.

[Rhodan]

Maybe it´s to much time on my hands but I recently thought how many people here are refering to Jon as brooding emo and make fun of his endless complaining, especially at the start of the series. I just realized... wasn´t Rheagar characterized as life-long malancholic by Barristan? I know, from the initial perspective we are led to belive that this was from his upbringing as humiliated noblaman´s bastard along his half-siblings but what if this is acttually very subtle clue from GRRM that this is something inherited, very mild form of Targ insanity we are supposedly missing from Jon? Yes, Martin has certainly characters who are quite similar in acting, villains as well as heroes and this sounds incredibly far-fetched but from the the few passages, jon kinda seems to be much more like Rheagar than Ned.

[Lykos]

@Rhodan

I do actually think so. Also when his anger flares, when he isn´t picked for the rangers, but steward reminded me of - well actually Rickon, a five year old. But we saw how easily his temper was controlled, whereas Dany after first opting for the sensible and compassionate thing to do let her anger lash on a whim and ordered the wine-seller´s family to be questioned "sharply".

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Maybe it´s to much time on my hands but I recently thought how many people here are refering to Jon as brooding emo and make fun of his endless complaining, especially at the start of the series. I just realized... wasn´t Rheagar characterized as life-long malancholic by Barristan? I know, from the initial perspective we are led to belive that this was from his upbringing as humiliated noblaman´s bastard along his half-siblings but what if this is acttually very subtle clue from GRRM that this is something inherited, very mild form of Targ insanity we are supposedly missing from Jon? Yes, Martin has certainly characters who are quite similar in acting, villains as well as heroes and this sounds incredibly far-fetched but from the the few passages, jon kinda seems to be much more like Rheagar than Ned.

You're not crazy. Other people have picked up on it, too. I'll do you one better — the reason Martin made Maester Aemon blind is because Aemon would have recognized Rhaegar's mannerisms and maybe even features in Jon.

[Drinking Cersei's Tears]

I thought Aemon and Rhaegar were only pen pals... When would they have seen each other?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I thought Aemon and Rhaegar were only pen pals... When would they have seen each other?

There's still the chance that he'd recognize family traits or features of some kind. Seriously, I think that's why Aemon is blind.

[Lykos]

I think Aemon suspected that there was something about Jon anyway, he must have been aware of some of the BR mojo working for Jon. I don´t think there was anyone left who knew BR as well as Aemon.