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What about Loras?


Nfestid

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Loras will never fight trial of fight against Cersei. Look at following chain:

If Cersei is guilty (by the trial or judgment) => Tommen is officially confirmed son of Jaimie => Tommen has no rights to Iron Throne => Meagery is no longer queen => Tyrells lost chances of putting their future heir on Iron Throne

I am 100% sure Tyrells wiould like to see Cersei dead, but Cersei being innocent in eyes of faith is critical factor in their plans of "taking care" of Iron Throne.

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There was another thread that made some excellent points about what Loras might be doing. Here are some of the points made (I have edited):

From Shay Baratheon

When Sansa descended from the Eyrie with Robert Arryn, Randa Royce told her that Riverrun has been taken, but Storm's End and Dragonstone still belong to Stannis.

The chronologically of events previously describes Dragonstone being taken before Jaime managed to seize Riverrun. So perhaps when Loras reached the siege of Dragonstone, he simply took control of the Redwyne fleet and raced them South to save his Tyrell lands from the Iron Born, and that the whole story of him being seriously injured in the storming of the castle are just for Cersei not to expect him to return shortly and to approve of the Redwyne fleet departing.

Neither Selsye or Melisandre nor Stannis or Jon Snow hear of Dragonstone being taken, even though the story in ADWD reaches beyond the timeline of AFFC, so they should've heard of it if it indeed took place.

From Apple Martini

We've already seen a Tyrell — Garlan — don Renly's distinctive armor in a ruse. Might someone else use Loras' fancy Knight of Flowers armor at some point in a subterfuge plot as well? Hmm

Just thought it would add to the converstion.

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That point about no one else hearing or saying anything about Dragonstone falling is a huge one. And it makes sense — Stannis obviously left some forces on Dragonstone. Wouldn't he have gotten a raven or some other message if it had been successfully taken? It's his seat, after all. But no, nothing — nothing about it falling, nothing about hostages.

The only "evidence" we have of what actually happened is what Cersei is told. And whatever she was told, people in the Vale and at the Wall didn't get the memo.

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Loras will never fight trial of fight against Cersei. Look at following chain:

If Cersei is guilty (by the trial or judgment) => Tommen is officially confirmed son of Jaimie => Tommen has no rights to Iron Throne => Meagery is no longer queen => Tyrells lost chances of putting their future heir on Iron Throne

I am 100% sure Tyrells wiould like to see Cersei dead, but Cersei being innocent in eyes of faith is critical factor in their plans of "taking care" of Iron Throne.

I started out thinking this way, but then I concluded

Cersei wins = Tyrells stay and support Tommen.

Cersei loses = Tyrells high-tail it out of Kings Landing and try to marry off Margaery to Aegon. Likely successful because the Tyrells bring a lot more wealth and men to the table than Dorn. And what are the Dornish gonna do about it, but be disappointed and stay pinned up in the South? On the other hand, if Aegon allies with Dorne, he has to fight Highgarden, which is the most wealthy and powerful of the remaining houses.

It's a lot cheaper and easier to ally than go to war. Even in the real middle ages, people tried to avoid out and out battle where possible. This is especially true of mercenaries (ie The Golden Company), so I think it makes a lot of sense for Aegon to go this route. It also fulfills the Tyrell aims (putting their blood on the throne) just as much as the current alliance with Cersei, but with the added advantage of not having to deal with Cersei (and possibly killing her off). Remember also the Queen of Thorns' whole monologue about how she doesn't think they (the Tyrells) should be too uppity, their loyalty to the Targ kings, and their general desire to avoid the GOT. Thus, abandoning Cersei and Tommen regardless of the outcome of the trial and allying with the apparant Targ claimant looks like a good fit for the them.

In either case, the Tyrells want to stay out of the briar patch that is Cersei. Bringing Loras in to fight, if he's indeed healthy, is not the way to go. I can see the Tyrells having a plan to ditch Cersei regardless of the trial outcome.

Cersei, on the other hand, probably has a plan to ditch them somehow if she wins her trial. If she loses, by the way, are her and her children all going to be put to death?

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That point about no one else hearing or saying anything about Dragonstone falling is a huge one. And it makes sense — Stannis obviously left some forces on Dragonstone. Wouldn't he have gotten a raven or some other message if it had been successfully taken? It's his seat, after all. But no, nothing — nothing about it falling, nothing about hostages.

The only "evidence" we have of what actually happened is what Cersei is told. And whatever she was told, people in the Vale and at the Wall didn't get the memo.

Obvious question - where is Loras then?

At this point of time Tyrells do not have many enemies - it's before Aegons invasion, at time when Stannis is concidered as no longer threat, North is no longer threat, and both Dorne and Arryns Valley are neutral. Dany is too far, and Tyrells do not care of Others... Maybe Loras is going to attack Iron Islands? At this time it was only enemy Tyrells could consider as real threat - and attacking Ironborn is more valuable to Tyrells then removing remains of Stannis influence on South. It could also explain absence of Aurane Waters (another expalnation is unknown Littlefinger's intrigue)

I started out thinking this way, but then I concluded

Cersei wins = Tyrells stay and support Tommen.

Cersei loses = Tyrells high-tail it out of Kings Landing and try to marry off Margaery to Aegon. Likely successful because the Tyrells bring a lot more wealth and men to the table than Dorn. And what are the Dornish gonna do about it, but be disappointed and stay pinned up in the South? On the other hand, if Aegon allies with Dorne, he has to fight Highgarden, which is the most wealthy and powerful of the remaining houses.

It's a lot cheaper and easier to ally than go to war. Even in the real middle ages, people tried to avoid out and out battle where possible. This is especially true of mercenaries (ie The Golden Company), so I think it makes a lot of sense for Aegon to go this route. It also fulfills the Tyrell aims (putting their blood on the throne) just as much as the current alliance with Cersei, but with the added advantage of not having to deal with Cersei (and possibly killing her off). Remember also the Queen of Thorns' whole monologue about how she doesn't think they (the Tyrells) should be too uppity, their loyalty to the Targ kings, and their general desire to avoid the GOT. Thus, abandoning Cersei and Tommen regardless of the outcome of the trial and allying with the apparant Targ claimant looks like a good fit for the them.

In either case, the Tyrells want to stay out of the briar patch that is Cersei. Bringing Loras in to fight, if he's indeed healthy, is not the way to go. I can see the Tyrells having a plan to ditch Cersei regardless of the trial outcome.

Cersei, on the other hand, probably has a plan to ditch them somehow if she wins her trial. If she loses, by the way, are her and her children all going to be put to death?

Few problems with your theory:

1. Aegons main marriage target is Danny. Also, Targs tradition do not allow them to marry with houses they conquered in the past.

2. Tyrells are wealth... but a lot of their wealth and human strenght was sacrificed in war(s). Dorne war casualties are ATM limited to ONE prince.

3. Aegon (no matter he is fake or not) do not puppet in his own eyes - he need VERY important reason to marry Maegery over Danny

4. Another very important aspect - Faith has become very strong and ambitious player. We do not know how strong their MILITARY forces are, but if Martin made it equivalent to medieval Templar Knights, they may play much greater role then Tyrells. On top of that it's behaviour has become very unpredictible.

5. I do not think Tyrells will sucessfully marriage same girl to the king FOURTH time (also, as I remember she still is officially virgin ;) ).

6. Tyrells actually have strongest position near Iron Throne from all houses - they will not sacrifice it for Aegons marriage promises. Lannisters are weaker then before Tywin death, but are still much stronger then pity aegons forces (yes, they are elite troopers - but they are only 10000 of them).

7. Aegon is officially son of beloved Doran's sister - they are obvious allies.

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Obvious question - where is Loras then?

At this point of time Tyrells do not have many enemies - it's before Aegons invasion, at time when Stannis is concidered as no longer threat, North is no longer threat, and both Dorne and Arryns Valley are neutral. Dany is too far, and Tyrells do not care of Others... Maybe Loras is going to attack Iron Islands? At this time it was only enemy Tyrells could consider as real threat - and attacking Ironborn is more valuable to Tyrells then removing remains of Stannis influence on South. It could also explain absence of Aurane Waters (another expalnation is unknown Littlefinger's intrigue)

The Iron Islands are directly threatening Highgarden and are openly attacking the Reach. As was mentioned earlier, Mace has said directly that his son will defend the Reach/attack the Ironborn - perhaps it means Willas, but likely it means Loras.

ETA: I like and agree with your idea about the involvement of Aurane.

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What about Loras? That is a good question. It seems pretty obvious that Aurane Waters’ description of the battle is pretty hinky. It is even more so after he takes the fleet and disappears. One thing that made me question the ferocity of the battle is this statement that Stannis made to Sam:

“On Dragonstone, where I had my seat, there is much of this obsidian to be seen in the old tunnels beneath the mountain,” the king told Sam. “Chunks of it, boulders, ledges. The great part of it was black, as I recall, but there was some green as well, some red, even purple. I have sent word to Ser Rolland my castellan to begin mining it. I will not hold Dragonstone for very much longer, I fear, but perhaps the Lord of Light shall grant us enough frozen fire to arm ourselves against these creatures, before the castle falls.”

It seemed to me that Stannis had already resigned himself to losing Dragonstone and simply wanted to get as much obsidian out as he could in the time left. When Aurane and Loras’ military forces arrived they would have found urgent mining operations and not preparations for a huge battle. Given that Aurane was originally Stannis’ man, I feel certain that he would have tried talking before entering into battle with the people on Dragonstone. When this happened, he would have learned about the Others and why Stannis was having obsidian mined. Aurane would have been aware of Stannis believing he was AA and that this meant there was a supernatural enemy that he was supposed to defeat. I think Aurane would have joined in the effort to mine obsidian and get it up to the wall for the battle. While I think there is a slight chance that Aurane has taken the fleet and headed to Dany, I expect Aurane’s fleet to arrive at East Watch loaded with obsidian.

So what about Loras? While Aurane had hand-picked the captains and crews of the ships and they would easily follow him with this change of plan, Loras was on the Kingsguard and his loyalties would not so easily be swayed. Additionally, it would be expected that the men who were under Loras’ command would obey Loras rather than Aurane if the two of them fell into conflict. If a battle occurred at all, I feel certain that it was Loras and his men against the people at Dragonstone and Aurane Waters’ men. I think subterfuge would have been used to minimize the bloodshed. Loras and most of his men would have been taken prisoner.

However, I also think it is possible that Loras was convinced to join in the effort to mine obsidian. I base this on Loras’ personality. First off Loras is, like the much younger Jaime, impulsive and idealistic. Much of this talk of AA and the Others would have been new to Loras. And if he had heard about it before he would have been inclined to accept the general attitude that it was nonsense. But if he heard about it from people who believed in it he might give it a second thought. Helping to save the world is something that would appeal to Loras. As Stargareyan has suggested, Loras has reasons to turn to a more spiritual path (the loss of his beloved Renly and his family’s machinations).

One other reason I have thought of for Loras voluntarily joining this operation is that it would bring him close to Stannis. If he was looking for revenge and a way to end the war, this would be a great opportunity to kill Stannis. Although I feel confident I know what Aurane is up to I really do wonder, “What about Loras?”

Heres the thing, the Dragonstone operation was led by Paxter Redwyne and his fleet along with 2,000 Lannister soldiers acting as the vanguard and ground troops. It wasn't until the Ironborn attack on the Reach that Loras got involved and Aurane merely transported him to h the island by boat. It would make sense to sacrifice the Lannister soldiers in the assault. Aurane did serve with Stannis initialy but it unclear to me if he was a Kings Man or a Queens man. If he was the latter then he would want to see the obsidian delivered to the Wall

Its hard to see Ser Loras abandoning his sister in her hour of need. I could see Ser Loras taking the black partialy because it would give him an oppurtunity to kill Stannis.

Personally I think some kind of subterfuge is going on at Dragonstone. Maester Pylos is there and I'm hoping he is the Prolouge for a WOW.

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I hadn't considered it before, but it could well be that Loras is not in Dragonstone as someone mentioned earlier and is instead heading to fend off the Ironborn invasion with Cersei's missing fleet and shipmaster. That would seem to make a lot of sense.

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That point about no one else hearing or saying anything about Dragonstone falling is a huge one. And it makes sense — Stannis obviously left some forces on Dragonstone. Wouldn't he have gotten a raven or some other message if it had been successfully taken? It's his seat, after all. But no, nothing — nothing about it falling, nothing about hostages.

Perhaps we should work off this assumption. The Tyrell forces never even made it to Dragonstone (and maybe, inadvertently, saved the world by allowing Stannis to continue mining for obsidian). That would mean that Aurane Waters and Loras Tyrell are actually headed to the Reach to battle the Ironborn. And it might even explain why Sam and Sansa were not featured in ADwD. The Tyrells might be able to prevent information from getting to King's Landing, but they can't do the same in the Vale or Oldtown. But then again, why wouldn't GRRM want us to know about this plot element yet?

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After having read other posts and going back and re-reading the pertinent parts of the story I have decided that I was completely off base as far as Loras is concerned. I am convinced of two things. The first is that no battle occurred at Dragonstone. The second is that Loras is in the Reach.

Something that was interesting to me was the discussion that led up to Loras volunteering to take Dragonstone. In this discussion, Margaery and Loras are arguing that the siege be ended so that the troops and ships can be sent to the Reach. The assumption during this discussion is that the ironborn are allied with Stannis. At this point, Aurane is against ending the siege. Quote: Aurane Waters bristled at Ser Loras' suggestion. "If Lord Redwyne sails his ships away, how are we to supply our men on Dragonstone? Without the Arbor's galleys, how will we maintain the siege of Storm's End?" So, at this point when everyone believes that the ironborn are allied with Stannis, Aurane argues against releasing the Redwyne forces from a place where everybody but Cersei recognizes as no threat (Stannis left so few people back at Dragonstone he expects it to fall). Yet when Aurane returns from Dragonstone he tells Cersei (what I am convinced is) a flat out lie to cover for Loras and Paxton's troop withdrawal. Further, he provides an excuse for Loras' not returning to King's Landing. This attitude change on the part of Aurane is telling for both Loras and Aurane.

The reason I believe that no battle occurred is because it was in no one’s interest for such a battle to take place. Loras and Paxton didn't want to fight to take Dragonstone because they desperately needed those ships and troops in the Reach. Wasting the troops taking a castle that posed no threat was something they would like to avoid. Ser Rolland wouldn’t want a battle because he would want more time to fulfill Stannis’ orders. Although no one wanted to fight, Loras and Paxton couldn’t just pack up their troops and go. Something had to have occurred to convince them they were safe in leaving. I think it is most likely that a meeting between Loras, Paxton, Rolland and Aurane occurred where the following information was exchanged: 1) The ironborn and Stannis were not allied; 2) Stannis had committed completely to a northern campaign, and; 3) while Dragonstone was only lightly manned, it had just enough troops to cause considerable damage to a force trying to take it, but not enough to launch an attack. I think they were probably even told about the mining of obsidian for the Wall as evidenced by this part of the story that Cersei told to Margaery, “Redwyne had miners working to drive a tunnel underneath the castle walls, but that was too slow for the Knight of Flowers.” That story would cover for any mining seen on the island and, after all, what did Loras and Paxton care about obsidian being mined for the Wall.

Once everyone was reassured that a battle at Dragonstone could be safely avoided, two things had to occur. First, someone had to take the tale of Dragonstone’s fall to Cersei and cover for Loras’ absence. Aurane did this. The second, which would take the cooperation of those inside Dragonstone, is to give the appearance to any casual observer that Dragonstone had indeed been taken. I don’t have any idea of how this would be accomplished, but I’m sure it happened. Once these issues were taken care of, Loras’ and Paxton were free to take the troops and go to the Reach. The best evidence that Loras went to the Reach along with Redwyne’s fleet, IMO, is this:

The Iron Islands are directly threatening Highgarden and are openly attacking the Reach. As was mentioned earlier, Mace has said directly that his son will defend the Reach/attack the Ironborn - perhaps it means Willas, but likely it means Loras.

ETA: I like and agree with your idea about the involvement of Aurane.

I think you have to account for the fact that the Faith seems to know what has happened to him. Either that or perhaps I'm reading too much into the passage I quoted in Cersei's POV above. I don't know, to me, it seems that Septa Scolera was about to reveal something before she was stopped.

I don’t think you are putting too much into this scene with Septa Scolera. I agree she was about to reveal something about Loras. However, at this point in time I think that the faith probably has the best intelligence network. This is because of all the sparrows and faith militant moving around. I don’t think they are specifically keeping an eye on Loras. Instead, I think they are keeping tabs on all the major players.

Excellent theory Bent Branch, never thought about it this way...

Thanks, but honestly I didn’t think I was putting forth a theory. I sort of backed into the idea that Aurane was taking obsidian to the wall. Mostly I was concerned about the fact they effectively have no weapons to fight the Others at the wall. When Dragonstone fell, I wondered if they had had enough time to get the obsidian out. When Aurane took off I thought, “Aha! That is how GRRM is going to get obsidian to the wall.” I really had nothing more to back up this idea than the evidence I stated in my earlier post. This led me to thinking that Loras was a variable that I had to account for. In researching this I realized that Loras isn’t much of a factor at all. He had his own agenda and once Aurane helped him out, he had nothing more to do with anything related to Dragonstone or the obsidian.

So having admitted that my ideas on Loras were half baked, do I still think Aurane is taking obsidian to the Wall? Yes. In fact, I understand why I originally had that idea and now have a shiny new theory backed up by evidence from the books. However, as can be deduced from my number of posts, I am still relatively new to the forums and my understanding is that I should post those rather lengthy ideas on a thread dedicated to Aurane. However, as I inadvertently raised the topic here, I will respond to the points that have been made on this thread.

Interesting theory bent branch! Didn't know aurane use to be one of stannis' men. I always got the impression that aurane was trying to improve his own status though and I don't see how he gets that from mining obsidian for stannis, also in the southern culture of mocking enemies beyond the wall as "grumpkins"(sp?) etc I don't see him as the type to immediately believe in the others. But I can still be persuaded, either way interesting idea.

Heres the thing, the Dragonstone operation was led by Paxter Redwyne and his fleet along with 2,000 Lannister soldiers acting as the vanguard and ground troops. It wasn't until the Ironborn attack on the Reach that Loras got involved and Aurane merely transported him to h the island by boat. It would make sense to sacrifice the Lannister soldiers in the assault. Aurane did serve with Stannis initialy but it unclear to me if he was a Kings Man or a Queens man. If he was the latter then he would want to see the obsidian delivered to the Wall

Its hard to see Ser Loras abandoning his sister in her hour of need. I could see Ser Loras taking the black partialy because it would give him an oppurtunity to kill Stannis.

Personally I think some kind of subterfuge is going on at Dragonstone. Maester Pylos is there and I'm hoping he is the Prolouge for a WOW.

1. Aurane’s “position” with Stannis was as a sellsail. I would agree that Aurane is looking to improve his position in life (like Bronn). If I were Aurane I would believe Stannis to be a better choice even though his situation appears worse. Aurane is well aware that Stannis made an ex-smuggler his hand for basically doing him a favor in time of war. And although Cersei had made him her Lord Admiral (based mostly on the fact she had the hots for him and he knew it), she could not be trusted to remain his supporter and he had NO other supporters at court.

2. While there is no indication that Aurane is a follower of R’hllor (sp?), there is good reason to believe he understands what they and Stannis are all about. And even though the rest of the small council sneers at the idea of grumpkins (I’m not sure of the spelling either) and the like, Aurane raises as a serious topic the dragons he heard at the docks. I think he may be more open to the ideas of R’hollor that it first appears.

3. Actually, it never occurred to me that either Aurane or Loras would take the black. I just thought they would be located at the Wall like Stannis and his men or the queen’s men.

4. I absolutely agree with you that Loras would not abandon his sister at her time of need.

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I'm up for some conspiracy on Loras/Tyrell/the Faith's part.. But I have reservations about Aurane's involvement. Perhaps he fibbed to Cersei, indeed. But I think his abandoning Kings Landing with the Drommonds to become a pirate is genuine.

While leaving KL to join Stannis/Tyrell conspiracies does display poor judgement on Cersei's part for making Aurane the fleet commander (which I believe is the whole point of that plot, Cersei not up to governing, choosing her men poorly). It doesn't sell as powerful as her new fleet commander abandoning to simply become a pirate/bandit.

Also, as a pirate Aurane is still open to involvement in the future, but not limited to Tyrells and Baratheon.

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But if Loras truly wasn't harmed at Dragonstone by boiling oil why does Maegery Tyrell and her cousins cry when Cersei delivers the news to them?

Unless perhaps she didn't receive the news of the scheme in time?

Thats the only thing that would make this not true.

However I liked Renly and I liked Loras (TV Loras at least) so I do hope hes alive.

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She could not know. Or she could be, you know, faking it. She cried enough when Joffrey died, despite very possibly being the actual poisoner.

True about Joffrey....this could be the same thing all over again.

Joffrey was an animal though and I'm glad he's dead. A thousand deaths wouldn't be enough for that little sh*t.

In that case then I'll hold out hope that Loras is alive and that with his help and guile Aegon and Connington were able to take Storms End.

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I don’t know why anyone would believe any bit of Aurane’s words to Cersei, given that the fellow soon thereafter absconded with her new fleet. He is demonstrably a ringer of some sort acting in bad faith. Why should his words be any different?

Interesting how they seem to have intentionally decimated Cersei’s forces, though. That may be true, and a naughtiness, or they might be alive but turned against her.

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I suppose the balance of evidence does favor Aurane and Loras absconding to the Reach to deal with the Ironborn. Perhaps that set of events marks the initial impetus for the fall of Euron and gives leeway for Aeron's story in TWoW to develop properly. Because if he's not still with us to overthrow Euron, what possible reason is there to continue with his POV?

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I suppose the balance of evidence does favor Aurane and Loras absconding to the Reach to deal with the Ironborn. Perhaps that set of events marks the initial impetus for the fall of Euron and gives leeway for Aeron's story in TWoW to develop properly. Because if he's not still with us to overthrow Euron, what possible reason is there to continue with his POV?

Perhaps this is why Martin keeps wanting to read an Aeron chapter from Winds. Alas then that no one has let him!

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Perhaps this is why Martin keeps wanting to read an Aeron chapter from Winds. Alas then that no one has let him!

I wasn't initially upset that fans had chosen the Arianne chapter over his, although, given GRRM's enthusiasm to read the latter chapter, I'm surprised they still went with the former. But now, thinking the issue over, and with no Aeron chapter in sight, I think it was a big miscalculation not to have chosen it before. With Arianne and Victarion, the events featured in their chapters were largely predictable by what had gone on before. But in the case of Aeron, we have little clue as to why he still figures in the story.

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