Joy Hill and the Westerlings

[Winterfell is Burning]

OK, think of it this way then — if the Crag was locked down enough that they couldn't allow Robb to "succumb" to his wounds, how was it open enough for the Westerlings to conspire with Tywin? Surely the first thing the northerners would do is get control of the ravens and the people going in and out. I'm also under the impression that Robb taking the Crag was something of a surprise that was only widely known after it had happened, and they wouldn't have known beforehand that he'd be wounded. Tywin's powerful but he's not omnipotent.

That's the winning argument right here. I never bought the "Tywin ordered the Westerlings to have Jeyne seduce Robb" argument. Tywin loses every battle exactly because he is unable to understand what's going on in Robb's head.

[Cheese Pudding]

I think they would have eventually, yes. But what I'm trying to say here is that people are giving Tywin too much credit for the Robb-Jeyne wedding, and that if you look at small details and the timeline, I don't think it's possible or likely that the Westerlings were "in on it" as early on as some people believe.

Hum, understood. It's very much possible, great catch.

[Sun]

As I said — "joy" doesn't strike me as the sort of word that Tywin would use. It was also used in the specific context of a match for Sybell's son.

"Mention was made of a match for him as well. A bride from Casterly Rock. Your lord father said that Raynald should have joy of him, if all went as we hoped."

In that context, in reference to Raynald and accompanied by the point about "a bride from Casterly Rock," I don't see how he could be referring to anything or anyone other than Joy, which Sybell misunderstood as meaning something else. Obviously if the word was used in reference to a match for the daughters or even to the family in general, you might have a point that it only meant that Tywin was going to reward them. But that's not how it's used.

Yes. I take "a bride from Casterly Rock," & "Raynald should have joy of him" in this context only to mean that he will make him what he considers to be a suitable match with a bride from the Lannister clan.

Why Jaime gave them Joy Hill (I'll speculate without the benefit of the books, so if I'm wrong on canon please correct me) I suspect he misunderstood her meaning. She may have said "joy of him" but Jaime (if I'm remembering correctly, and I'm likely not) heard the word joy and took it for the name Joy. A natural mistake considering how weary he was at the time.

OT:

Is anyone else having trouble posting today or just me? It took me ~10 mins to successfully post this comment.

[Fragile Bird]

Oh yeah. Board has been going in and out all day.

[jsjoslin18]

I'm not sure if anyone has said this but maybe this change came about as a way to punish the westerlings for betraying them.....making them wed a frey bastard...I dunno

[Sun]

Oh yeah. Board has been going in and out all day.

Thanks. :)

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Yes. I take "a bride from Casterly Rock," & "Raynald should have joy of him" in this context only to mean that he will make him what he considers to be a suitable match with a bride from the Lannister clan.

Why Jaime gave them Joy Hill (I'll speculate without the benefit of the books, so if I'm wrong on canon please correct me) I suspect he misunderstood her meaning. She may have said "joy of him" but Jaime (if I'm remembering correctly, and I'm likely not) heard the word joy and took it for the name Joy. A natural mistake considering how weary he was at the time.

Why are you willing to believe that it was Jaime who misunderstood it and not Sybell? If anything, it makes more sense for it to be reversed — Sybell hears "Joy" and wrongly thinks it's "joy," while Jaime hears "joy" and correctly understands that it means "Joy."

I don't think Jaime gave them Joy. I think that Tywin had shifted gears and decided to give them Joy, and Jaime's just the one who had to explain to Sybell what was actually meant. And if "have joy of him" is verbatim, I'm sorry, but that's a bizarre way to put it if he's not actually talking about Joy Hill. You don't think at the very least it's convenient that the Lannisters have a family member named Joy and that Tywin used the word joy in reference to Raynald's marriage pact? :shocked:

[Fragile Bird]

@ Apple Martini

Home now, looking at the book. I must have remembered the whore with the crown saying she was queen. But I do remember someone on a thread comparing crown descriptions, although the Robb ones are definitely the same crown. They must have compared Robb's with someone else's.

[kephv]

The decision to leave Rollam behind appears to be one Robb made himself. It's not like the Westerlings asked for him to stay behind, and Rollam appeared to be upset over it. Yet these people were supposedly in on it from very early on? I don't buy it.

Sybell and Rolph were in on it (her daughter was only a pawn and didn't need to know anything), and Tywin didn't tell them any more than they needed to hear. They play the part he asks them and that's it (which was probably to make sure Jeyne didn't become pregnant). Most likely the particulars of the RW were still be sorted out at that time as well.

If they had been in league with Tywin early or from the beginning, why did they just not kill Robb (they could even lie to his men and say he died of his wounds) when he was at the Crag? (Kudos to Jarl the Climber for asking this first.) Tywin acts like the Red Wedding was necessary because it was otherwise nearly impossible to kill Robb. Yet the Westerlings had him in a very vulnerable position. The reward for killing Robb at that point would have been immense. But they didn't. Why? Because at that time, they were not in league with Tywin. When did they get in league with Tywin? I'd argue that it was actually much later than many people believe — not until after the Red Wedding, when they were pardoned and given the marriage option(s) in exchange for Jeyne never giving birth to Robb's child.

It would be a huge risk to kill him. Not only was he under guard (they never mention this but he is the king), but even if they did manage to kill him, they'd run the risk of being destroyed by his forces after he's dead. Better to wait and move carefully.

The time line doesn't really add up to a long-term Westerling-Tywin deal

Here's how I think it went: Robb takes their castle and breaks his oath by marrying Jeyne. Seeing the Freys pissed off at this, Sybell (knowing that Lannisters pay their debts) sends message to Tywin that Robb broke his oath with her daughter, claiming that she coordinated them getting together herself to sow dissension among his forces, and furthermore, she will make sure Jeyne doesn't become pregnant with Robb's heir. This is what causes Tywin to start planning the Red Wedding, not before (some think Tywin orchestrated Robb and Jeyne himself, but too much was beyond his control. I think he just used the opportunities presented to him). And it fits with why he'd give them such rich rewards.

Ehhhh ... still think it's a snow/Snow situation. "Joy" is an odd word for Tywin to use in general, and then it just seems too coincidental for them to have a bastard family member named Joy. I think it's more like, Sybell took "joy" as being something really good and Jaime had to piss in her chips by clarifying it.

Sybell said it though, not Tywin. She could be pushing for more than he was promised (hoping Jaime will interpret this as being something grand), while at the same time being vague about what exactly Tywin said, so as not to outright lie about anything.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Why are you willing to believe that it was Jaime who misunderstood it and not Sybell? If anything, it makes more sense for it to be reversed — Sybell hears "Joy" and wrongly thinks it's "joy," while Jaime hears "joy" and correctly understands that it means "Joy."

I don't think Jaime gave them Joy. I think that Tywin had shifted gears and decided to give them Joy, and Jaime's just the one who had to explain to Sybell what was actually meant. And if "have joy of him" is verbatim, I'm sorry, but that's a bizarre way to put it if he's not actually talking about Joy Hill. You don't think at the very least it's convenient that the Lannisters have a family member named Joy and that Tywin used the word joy in reference to Raynald's marriage pact? :shocked:

"May you have the joy of her" was used in other places to mean "congratulations." It is interesting that Sybelle didn't get the name of the bride from Casterly rock, after all, the Lannisters are not like the Freys with an infinite and interchangeable number of offspring to marry off. I just looked at the Lannister family tree and the only other girl child (besides Myrcella who doesn't count) is Janei, Kevan's 2-year-old daughter. Tywin wouldn't be casually making a match for her, I don't think.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

"May you have the joy of her" was used in other places to mean "congratulations." It is interesting that Sybelle didn't get the name of the bride from Casterly rock, after all, the Lannisters are not like the Freys with an infinite and interchangeable number of offspring to marry off. I just looked at the Lannister family tree and the only other girl child (besides Myrcella who doesn't count) is Janei, Kevan's 2-year-old daughter. Tywin wouldn't be casually making a match for her, I don't think.

Yeah, another reason why I think it really has to be Joy. How many other Lannister girls of Casterly Rock are there at that time?

[Howling Mad]

You convinced me, thank you for a great thread on a good topic :bowdown:

[kg1982]

Yes.. 'cause we need a soap plot in ASOIAF. I really hate the Jeyne is preggers plot line because it complicates matters at Winterfell even more. My theory is that Rickon's only reason for existence is to become King in the North. Everyone else has larger destinies. Robb's heir would have precedence over Rickon.

The only way that Jeyne is interesting to me is if she dies brutally at the hands to Lady Stoneheart.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Yes.. 'cause we need a soap plot in ASOIAF. I really hate the Jeyne is preggers plot line because it complicates matters at Winterfell even more. My theory is that Rickon's only reason for existence is to become King in the North. Everyone else has larger destinies. Robb's heir would have precedence over Rickon.

The only way that Jeyne is interesting to me is if she dies brutally at the hands to Lady Stoneheart.

Story-wise, a pregnant Jeyne would take the teeth out of the Red Wedding tragedy and rob UnCat of her symbolism and narrative purpose. I'm also afraid that if GRRM has an heir in reserve he'll feel free to kill off another one of Stark siblings. If something happens to Rickon I will surely have a book-burning moment. Noooooooo!!!

A deus ex utero is what that kid would be.

[Dr. Pepper]

I think there is a lot of evidence to suggest that Sybell was in on a plot from the beginning. The most striking piece of evidence is that her husband, Gawen, was held hostage by Robb after the Whispering Wood. After Robb takes the Crag, the Westerlings couldn't have simply killed Robb off because they were outnumbered and would have been killed and Gawen would have been killed. I think while Robb was convalescing, Sybell corresponded with Tywin somehow. Perhaps via raven or maybe just by messenger. It's curious that she can produce no written document of what Tywin promised her, so I think it's more likely that correspondence was done by messenger where words and meanings get lost. Having joy of Tywin may have just been the way Sybell interpreted what he meant. I'm fairly certain that Tywin would have recognized that Jeyne and Robb marrying would have very negative consequences for the Frey's. I'm also certain Sybell and her brother recognized this and saw a way to . She and her husband had sought to marry their daughters to the Lannisters well before the war but were rebuffed. This is just another opportunity for Sybell to get good marriages for her children. I don't think she knew how the Red Wedding would go down, but she probably knew something was coming. Her part had nothing to do with bringing down Robb, it was only to sow discontent, and it worked splendidly.

I also do not think Tywin had anything to do with planning the Red Wedding. The only part he took in it was basically promising pardons and marriages to the Freys for first being traitors to the throne and then for killing Robb. Then he made the plans with Roose Bolton, though I think all of those plans came via the Freys since Roose was married to Fat Walda who was at the Twins until the Red Wedding. Fat Walda had a lot to lose if Roose would have gone down with Robb as she was the daughter of a mediocre 9th son who had a bleak future before Roose picked her out of the line-up. The only true part Tywin played in all of it was bringing the Freys and Boltons a pardon from the crown.

[Sid2]

@ Apple Martini

Home now, looking at the book. I must have remembered the whore with the crown saying she was queen. But I do remember someone on a thread comparing crown descriptions, although the Robb ones are definitely the same crown. They must have compared Robb's with someone else's.

I believe that you might be thinking of the thread pertaining to Dany's vision of the wolf king in the House of the Undying (and whether it was actually predicting the RW or some other event). The description of the crown was far less exact in her vision and was discussed thoroughly in that thread.

[Bran Vras]

So, the Freys would have betrayed Robb even without his marriage with Jeyne?

Concerning this, the evidence is clear that the Frey were seeking a way out of the war before the Westerling marriage. It's all in the last Arya chapter in Harrenhal, all in the same day (ACoK).

First Arya meets Elmar Frey,

He liked to boast how he was the son of the Lord of the Crossing, not a nephew or a bastard or a grandson but a trueborn son, and on account of that he was going to marry a princess.

The princess is of course Arya Stark. Then there is a Frey delegation in Lord Bolton's bedchamber:

The lord’s bedchamber was crowded when she entered. Qyburn was in attendance, and dour Walton in his mail shirt and greaves, plus a dozen Freys, all brothers, half brothers, and cousins. Roose Bolton lay abed, naked. Leeches clung to the inside of his arms and legs and dotted his pallid chest, long translucent things that turned a glistening pink as they fed. Bolton paid them no more mind than he did Arya.

“We must not allow Lord Tywin to trap us here at Harrenhal,” Ser Aenys Frey was saying as Arya filled the washbasin. A grey stooped giant of a man with watery red eyes and huge gnarled hands, Ser Aenys had brought fifteen hundred Frey swords south to Harrenhal, yet it often seemed as if he were helpless to command even his own brothers. “The castle is so large it requires an army to hold it, and once surrounded we cannot feed an army. Nor can we hope to lay in sufficient supplies. The country is ash, the villages given over to wolves, the harvest burnt or stolen. Autumn is on us, yet there is no food in store and none being planted. We live on forage, and if the Lannisters deny that to us, we will be down to rats and shoe leather in a moon’s turn.”

“I do not mean to be besieged here.” Roose Bolton’s voice was so soft that men had to strain to hear it, so his chambers were always strangely hushed.

“What, then?” demanded Ser Jared Frey, who was lean, balding, and pockmarked. “Is Edmure Tully so drunk on his victory that he thinks to give Lord Tywin battle in the open field?”

If he does he’ll beat them, Arya thought. He’ll beat them as he did on the Red Fork, you’ll see. Unnoticed, she went to stand by Qyburn.

“Lord Tywin is many leagues from here,” Bolton said calmly. “He has many matters yet to settle at King’s Landing. He will not march on Harrenhal for some time.”

Ser Aenys shook his head stubbornly. “You do not know the Lannisters as we do, my lord. King Stannis thought that Lord Tywin was a thousand leagues away as well, and it undid him.”

The pale man in the bed smiled faintly as the leeches nursed of his blood. “I am not a man to be undone, ser.”

“Even if Riverrun marshals all its strength and the Young Wolf wins back from the west, how can we hope to match the numbers Lord Tywin can send against us? When he comes, he will come with far more power than he commanded on the Green Fork. Highgarden has joined itself to Joffrey’s cause, I remind you!”

“I had not forgotten.”

“I have been Lord Tywin’s captive once,” said Ser Hosteen, a husky man with a square face who was said to be the strongest of the Freys. “I have no wish to enjoy Lannister hospitality again.”

Ser Harys Haigh, who was a Frey on his mother’s side, nodded vigorously. “If Lord Tywin could defeat a seasoned man like Stannis Baratheon, what chance will our boy king have against him?” He looked round to his brothers and cousins for support, and several of them muttered agreement.

“Someone must have the courage to say it,” Ser Hosteen said. “The war is lost. King Robb must be made to see that.”

Roose does not got along with the conclusion immediately. But he understands the betrayal proposal. A few hours later, he decides to go "hunting wolves", and sends the Tallhart etc to Duskendale. Later:

As Arya crossed the yard to the bathhouse, she spied a raven circling down toward the rookery, and wondered where it had come from and what message it carried.

Finally:

She could hear angry voices coming from a window, many men talking and arguing all at once. Elmar was sitting on the steps outside, alone.

“What’s wrong?” Arya asked him when she saw the tears shining on his cheeks.

“My princess,” he sobbed. “We’ve been dishonored, Aenys says. There was a bird from the Twins. My lord father says I’ll need to marry someone else, or be a septon.”

So the news of the Westerling marriage was merely a pretext or a catalyzer of the betrayal.

Concerning the Westerlings real intentions, I think we need to look at the long hand of certain eastern powers. It's not fortuitous that the TV show introduced a Volantene nurse in Robb's entourage. A close look at the text about the Spicers and certain characters we see in ADwD is quite suggestive, but this will be for another occasion. I have no time now.

[Fragile Bird]

I believe that you might be thinking of the thread pertaining to Dany's vision of the wolf king in the House of the Undying (and whether it was actually predicting the RW or some other event). The description of the crown was far less exact in her vision and was discussed thoroughly in that thread.

Bingo!