Joy Hill and the Westerlings

[The Sleeper]

But it's Rolph's reward, not Sybell's. What do you think it was that the Westerlings DID to get the marriages?

Get her daughter to sleep with Robb? Roose had probabbly reported to Tywin that the Freys were restless so he arranged for a pretext for the RW.

[bloodymime]

Yes, I have a tendency to think (look away now Blackfish fans) that this might not have worked out well for them if that is what they tried to do. Sounds like heart attack territory to me. Unless of course Jeyne had been smuggled out earlier but then that doesn't fit with Sybelle's anger.

I'd think Edmure would give them what help he could like one of the stronger swimmers in the castle. While more people means more risk of discovery this is a time where it would still be more of a help. Two strong swimmers helping the girl between them would have a much better chance than the Blackfish on his own.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Get her daughter to sleep with Robb? Roose had probabbly reported to Tywin that the Freys were restless so he arranged for a pretext for the RW.

But there's no evidence that the alliance goes back that far, as I said. On the contrary, much of it seems to have been drawn up on the fly, after the Red Wedding.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Nope, that was ROBB'S COWN. No one had been inside Riverrun to take Jeyne's crown — when Jaime arrived, the castle had not yet surrendered and no Lannister-Frey forces had been inside. So why would Ryman Frey have Jeyne's crown? No, it was Robb's. And it's the same crown Brienne sees UnCat handling later on, after Ryman was hanged.

ETA: As for the Blackfish's escape with Jeyne. Might it be possible that he pulled a Bran-and-Rickon and never actually left? I think that's unlikely but it could explain how a pregnant girl "got away" — they didn't really get away. And who would know where to hide out better than him?

Ah. My mistake. And yes, a non-escape would make sense, but how would she get out after the Tully garrison escaped? Oh, the Tom O'Sevens connection (answering my own question).

The fact that the queen's crown wasn't handed over to Jaime makes it more likely that it's being used elsewhere, I'll give you that.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Ah. My mistake. And yes, a non-escape would make sense, but how would she get out after the Tully garrison escaped? Oh, the Tom O'Seven's connection (answering my own question).

Well that, and I don't think it'd be too much trouble to wait until the fuss dies down before leaving with some random camp, disguised as a peasant or camp follower (a noble Jeyne as a commoner, and a common Jeyne as noble, hah). I think that Jeyne and Brynden are both long gone, but I was just suggesting that it isn't 100% necessary.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Well that, and I don't think it'd be too much trouble to wait until the fuss dies down before leaving with some random camp, disguised as a peasant or camp follower (a noble Jeyne as a commoner, and a common Jeyne as noble, hah). I think that Jeyne and Brynden are both long gone, but I was just suggesting that it isn't 100% necessary.

I'm thinking that Jeyne would head toward the BWB and Lady Stoneheart if she managed to escape. So we may find out in the next volume when we catch up with Brienne and Jaime. I hope we find out SOMETHING.

[gilby]

If Jeyne was pregnant, she wasn't that pregnant, so I don't think you can use her pregnancy as an argument against her being able to swim out of Riverrun. She could have left with Blackfish or hidden out and left later, but I refuse to believe thin-hipped Jeyne is childbearing-hipped Jeyne.

Redacted I screwed up the timeline. But I still think she's alive.

[Fragile Bird]

Nope, that was ROBB'S COWN. No one had been inside Riverrun to take Jeyne's crown — when Jaime arrived, the castle had not yet surrendered and no Lannister-Frey forces had been inside. So why would Ryman Frey have Jeyne's crown? No, it was Robb's. And it's the same crown Brienne sees UnCat handling later on, after Ryman was hanged.

AM, I thought there was some conflict over whether that was Robb's crown. I thought I saw a thread pointing out that there are 2 different descriptions of Robb's crown and they don't match. I could be imagining that, without books I can't look up the descriptions.

/sp

[The Sleeper]

But there's no evidence that the alliance goes back that far, as I said. On the contrary, much of it seems to have been drawn up on the fly, after the Red Wedding.

Actually there is that bit of dialogue between Tywin and Tyrion where Tyrion commends that the Westerlings are fools to believe that the direwolf will beat the lion, to which Tywin replied that fools are sometimes wiser than those who laugh at them and then threatened to smile.

What makes me consider that the Jeyne was not in fact Jeyne is that they did not account for both Westerling girls. We didn't hear about Rollam either but I would have expected the girls to stick together with their mother in a situation like this. Also, Edmure was quite pleased with himself, which might hint that there is a pregnent Queen in the North running about.

[Lummel]

I'm thinking that Jeyne would head toward the BWB and Lady Stoneheart if she managed to escape. So we may find out in the next volume when we catch up with Brienne and Jaime. I hope we find out SOMETHING.

Why would they do that? From their perspective the BWB are a bunch of bandits who have been attacking Stark troops, they would know nothing of Lady Stoneheart and her knew policy directive which only starts at more or less the same time that the Blackfish and co have been bottled up in Riverrun.

[The Sleeper]

Why would they do that? From their perspective the BWB are a bunch of bandits who have been attacking Stark troops, they would know nothing of Lady Stoneheart and her knew policy directive which only starts at more or less the same time that the Blackfish and co have been bottled up in Riverrun.

My guess is that they would head for that fiercely loyal to the Starks impenetrable, humid region where Maritn likes to stash the rest of the characters/plot items he wants us to know nothing about.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Actually there is that bit of dialogue between Tywin and Tyrion where Tyrion commends that the Westerlings are fools to believe that the direwolf will beat the lion, to which Tywin replied that fools are sometimes wiser than those who laugh at them and then threatened to smile.

I remember that, but it still isn't anything too concrete. It could easily hint toward the Westerlings backing down and toeing the line from then on. Thing is though, if the marriage to Robb was planned from the start by Tywin — and I just can't accept that; too much was out of Tywin's control — then that is what made the Red Wedding possible in the first place. Yet the best that the Westerlings' heir can get is a bastard? And Tywin doesn't mention or take credit for that plan in his talk with Tyrion? Sorry, I think the Westerlings came in much later, at least after the Red Wedding had already been planned and maybe even after it went off.

Sybell says Raynald didn't know about the "understanding," but why the hell didn't she keep him at Riverrun if SHE had any idea what would happen? Why take the risk? And again, there's Rollam — it was only Robb's decision that kept him from probably getting killed, too. I'm more inclined to believe that none of them knew, really knew, what was going to happen, and that Sybell is trying to retcon the Westerlings' involvement to see what else she can get.

What makes me consider that the Jeyne was not in fact Jeyne is that they did not account for both Westerling girls. We didn't hear about Rollam either but I would have expected the girls to stick together with their mother in a situation like this. Also, Edmure was quite pleased with himself, which might hint that there is a pregnent Queen in the North running about.

This I agree with. :P

I think a lot of people think Sybell said something she didn't about Tywin's orders not to let Jeyne have a baby. She never says that she was slipping Jeyne moon tea that whole time, only that Tywin told her not to have Jeyne have a baby, and she "made certain of that." But that could have easily been a condition of the pardon and marriages after Robb was already dead. Hoster terminated Lysa's pregnancy; why couldn't Sybell have, hypothetically, terminated Jeyne's? And with a daughter posing as Jeyne who definitely wasn't pregnant, she didn't have any short-term worry of getting caught in the lie.

[Howlin' Howland Reed]

Robb was presumably guarded at all times and probably by a guard no less fierce than Grey Wind. Also, the Crag was held at the time and the Westerlings were prisoners with limited freedom of movement. Lastly the second in command of the 5000 scary Northmen was the Greatjon. I think they could safely expect to die on the spot should something have happened to Robb.

I agree, and think it's a weak point of the original post (which I generally agree with otherwise).

The greatest thing in favor of your theory is the failure to account for both Westerling girls during Riverrun's surrender. I'm still not convinced how a 13 year old can pass for a 16 year old regardless of the hips.

I can definitely imagine having a really hard time telling a 13-year old girl from a 16-year old girl, even if they stood side by side. Would depend somewhat on the appearance of the girls, of course, but I don't think this is a deal-breaker.

Nope, that was ROBB'S COWN.

Didn't Jaime explicitly tell Ryman to leave that crown? Did he completely disregard that request?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

AM, I thought there was some conflict over whether that was Robb's crown. I thought I saw a thread pointing out that there are 2 different descriptions of Robb's crown and they don't match. I could be imagining that, without books I can't look up the descriptions.

/sp

Robb's crown, described in Catelyn's first chapter of Clash of Kings:

... an open circlet of hammered bronze incised with the runes of the First Men, surmounted by nine black iron spikes wrought in the shape of longswords.

The crown Ryman's ladyfriend is wearing in Feast for Crows:

On her head a circlet of hammered bronze sat askew, graven with runes and ringed with small black swords.

The crown Brienne sees UnCat holding:

In her hands was a crown, a bronze circlet ringed by iron swords.

Same crown in all three cases, and it's Robb's. Funny thing is, Jaime told Ryman that he couldn't take Robb's crown with him when he was dismissed. Obviously he did. :D

Didn't Jaime explicitly tell Ryman to leave that crown? Did he completely disregard that request?

Yes it would appear so, given that Ryman was hanged by UnCat's men and UnCat ends up in possession of the crown.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I agree, and think it's a weak point of the original post (which I generally agree with otherwise).

OK, think of it this way then — if the Crag was locked down enough that they couldn't allow Robb to "succumb" to his wounds, how was it open enough for the Westerlings to conspire with Tywin? Surely the first thing the northerners would do is get control of the ravens and the people going in and out. I'm also under the impression that Robb taking the Crag was something of a surprise that was only widely known after it had happened, and they wouldn't have known beforehand that he'd be wounded. Tywin's powerful but he's not omnipotent.

[Howlin' Howland Reed]

Yes it would appear so, given that Ryman was hanged by UnCat's men and UnCat ends up in possession of the crown.

Those sneaky Freys!

But, before I give this a rest: How is Jeyne's crown described?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Those sneaky Freys!

But, before I give this a rest: How is Jeyne's crown described?

It's not.

[Lord Martin]

Excellent points @Apple Martini.

I actually think Sybil Spicer was playing both sides. She didn't have much of a choice, a Northern Army invaded her lands, sacked her castle and her daughter fell in love with their king. Things are great if the North wins.

But she needs to hedge her bets. If she's wise, she writes to Lord Tywin, professes her loyalty and says, how can we use this to your advantage? Obviously she can't do the dirty work or her whole family will be butchered. So Twyin says, play along and make sure she doesn't get pregnant and I'll take care of Robb.

Merret Frey tells us the RW was mostly the planning of Black Walder and Roose Bolton, I doubt Tywin knew every last detail and I'm certain Sybil didn't know.

This gives us two possible scenarios at Riverrun. Either she is in on the deal to hide Jeyne or she isn't. Now that Tywin is dead, House Lannister is not all that scary and she may be very upset at her sons death. She could be in on a plan for the Blackfish to sneak her out of there. That wouldn't explain the bruises though.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Why would they do that? From their perspective the BWB are a bunch of bandits who have been attacking Stark troops, they would know nothing of Lady Stoneheart and her knew policy directive which only starts at more or less the same time that the Blackfish and co have been bottled up in Riverrun.

Y'know, I've got this segment all mixed up. I was thinking that of course Tom O'Sevens would have steered them towards the BWB, or the BWB towards them, as he did with Ryman. But Tom wasn't in Riverrun until Emmon took over. So, you're right. But it would be awfully damn hard for them to get to the Neck -- they have to cross the war-torn, wolf-infested Riverlands and pass the Twins to get there.

If they both escaped on the River they could have continued downstream, what the heck, I don't know . . .

[The Sleeper]

I remember that, but it still isn't anything too concrete. It could easily hint toward the Westerlings backing down and toeing the line from then on. Thing is though, if the marriage to Robb was planned from the start by Tywin — and I just can't accept that; too much was out of Tywin's control — then that is what made the Red Wedding possible in the first place. Yet the best that the Westerlings' heir can get is a bastard? And Tywin doesn't mention or take credit for that plan in his talk with Tyrion? Sorry, I think the Westerlings came in much later, at least after the Red Wedding had already been planned and maybe even after it went off.

There is also that bit where Tywin says that Jeyne is her mother's daughter while Robb is his father's son. Don't remember when he said right now. I think even Tywin would hesitate to admit that he had to pimp a sixteen year old girl to defeat his sixteen year old rival, which is why he would have kept the rewards he planned for the Westerlings for himself. It doesn't necessarily mean that he would keep them informed of the rest of his plans. Besides he probably didn't know himself exactly what the Freys had in mind.

A possible scenario would be:

Westerlings (via ravenmail): help, the Northmen are coming.

Tywin: Don't you have a young daughter? Let them come.

It sounds stretched I know. What I think is more plausible is that Tywin offered promises and gold where ever he could send mail (Manderly mentions a letter from Tywin, in which the latter promised him his son back if they stood down). Likewise he could have sent ravens to his own bannermen with promises of rewards to anyone who could deliver a decisive blow to Robb). In enters, Sybelle who comes up with the scheme in the face of her castle being sacked. She either gets a crown for her daughter or handsome rewards from her liege lord.

OK, think of it this way then — if the Crag was locked down enough that they couldn't allow Robb to "succumb" to his wounds, how was it open enough for the Westerlings to conspire with Tywin? Surely the first thing the northerners would do is get control of the ravens and the people going in and out. I'm also under the impression that Robb taking the Crag was something of a surprise that was only widely known after it had happened, and they wouldn't have known beforehand that he'd be wounded. Tywin's powerful but he's not omnipotent.

After the wedding they would be reasonbly free to send and receive messages.